30th Assembly of ALIM Merida, Mexico Vince Peterson VP of Overseas Operations
11 - 14 November 2012
U.S. Situation 100
Supply among highest in past 15 years
90 80
MMT
70
54.4
60
60.1
50
2012 production up 7.5 MMT
61.8
40 35.1 28.6
30
29.9 20 26.6 23.5 20.2
10 0 94/95
97/98
Beginning stocks
00/01 Production
03/04 Imports
06/07 Exports
09/10 Domestic Use
12/13
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class 70
Unit labels: 60
55.7
54.4
0.9
4.1
2.5
8.3
3.4
11.4
4.6
28.5
30.0
12.2
2011/12
2012/13
4.4 8.6
Million Acres
22.5 2.2
1.3 50
MHA
Mill Acres
40 11.6 30
20
HRW 10
0 2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06 HRW
2006/07 HRS
2007/08 SRW
2008/09
White
*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 29, 2012
2009/10
Durum
2010/11
HRW Crop Quality Harvest Survey
64% of Gulf & 68% of PNW HRW Crop > 12% Protein
HRS Crop Quality Harvest Survey
68% of HRS Crop > 14% Protein …almost 40% > 15%!
PNW HRS 13 vs HRS 14 Protein Premium for 14 pro over 13 pro drops from $100/MT to nearly zero.
PNW HRW 12 & 13 vs HRS 14 Protein Premium for HRS 14 over HRW 13 drops to nearly zero. + $100/MT
Spread: MGEX vs. KCBT December Wheat Futures
Premium for Minneapolis futures over Kansas City returns to “normal”
U.S. Soft Red Winter 20
15
MMT
2012/13 SRW ending stocks to increase to 5.6 MMT 10
12.5 11.4
S/U Ratio 50%
4.4
5
3.9 5.0 4.7
0 07/08
08/09 Beginning stocks
09/10 Production
10/11 Imports
11/12 Exports
12/13
France Tops U.S. Wheat With Premium Seen at Record: Commodities Whitney McFerron
Oct 25, 2012 12:43 pm ET
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Surging demand for European Union wheat is reducing stockpiles to a 14-year low and driving prices in France, the biggest exporter, to a record premium over U.S. grain after drought withered supply from the Black Sea region. …
$/MT
SRW vs French Export Prices
400 380
360 340
US sells 620,000MT SRW to Europe
320 300 280 260 240 220 200
SRW
French
U.S. White 12
10
MMT
8
2011/12 Soft White exports increase on feed wheat sales
8.5 7.0 5.9
6
4.6
4
2 2.3
1.7
0 07/08
08/09 Beginning stocks
09/10 Production
10/11 Imports
11/12 Exports
12/13
US Soft Wheat FOB Export Prices French Wheat Black Sea Wheat US Gulf Corn US PNW Corn
$ 355 $ 335 $ 320 $ 340
X
99.99% 100%
50.5%
54%
KC December Futures (weekly continuous)
KC December Futures (daily continuous)
KC July Wheat (new crop) Futures for 2013 ? 22.5 MHA
22.0 MHA
21.7 MHA
Winter Wheat Decisions & Planting
KC July 2013 Futures (new crop)
KC Wheat vs. Corn New Crop Futures Spread Central Kansas Wheat (HRW) New-Crop 2013 Wheat (HRW)
$8.85 $325/MT
Corn
$7.28 $285/MT
$8.60 $315/MT
New-Crop 2013 Corn
$5.82 $230/MT
2013 Winter Wheat Planting: 92% vs 90% (vs 5 year)
Emerged: 73% vs 74% (vs 5 year)
Condition: Good to Excellent 39% vs 49% (vs 2011) .
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Surging demand for European Union wheat is reducing stockpiles to a 14-year low and driving prices in France, the biggest exporter, to a record premium over U.S. grain after drought withered supply from the Black Sea region. ⦠France Tops U.S. Wheat With Premium. Seen at Record: Commodities ...
... Adult career transitions: Current research perspectives. Michigan Business Papers #66. Miles, M.B., & Huberman, A.M. (1984). Qualitative Data Analysis, 16.
Paper can be downloaded at: http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~trp/belief-elicitation.030507.pdf. On Eliciting Beliefs in Strategic Games. CDFs of Individual Forecast ...
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Overconfidence. Introduction. Example. Results. Variants. Evolution. Model. People report 80 .... Principal wants agents with the most accurate private signals to.
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Oct 27, 2014 - 6:30 p.m. Call to Order and Welcome â Don Edwards, Facilitator. 6:35 p.m. Opening Remarks ..... through the Mayor Call. Center at 311.
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During the PPT activity, take notes on Romanticism from the screen so that during our class ... Romantic Period, take notes on the pieces of art and poetry.
Revised Sick Pool Policy_7-1-13 (1).pdf. Revised Sick Pool Policy_7-1-13 (1).pdf. Open. Extract. Open with. Sign In. Main menu. Displaying Revised Sick Pool ...
