Mikhail Chester, Assistant Professor Civil, Environmental, & Sustainable Engineering Arizona State University

Arizona Pavement / Materials Conference November 17, 2015

Infrastructure Design & Management for the 21st Century Infrastructure has provided massive benefits.

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 2

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Infrastructure Design & Management for the 21st Century There is growing evidence that the way we deploy and manage infrastructure is not sustainable. 1. We cannot finance the infrastructure currently in place. 2. Travel has peaked in the US. 3. Growth of roadway infrastructure leads to congestion.

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 3

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Financial Constraints are Eminent Arizona DOT LRTP ◦ By 2035: $89b in requirements, $26 billion in revenue.

Massachusetts ◦ Needs an additional $1.02 billion per year for the next 10 years.

Connecticut ◦ Annual shortfall of $3.7b, or 20% of costs.

California ◦ CA Transportation Commission projects total costs of $538b and revenues of $242b by 2025. Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 4

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Vehicle Travel in the United States 1970-2010 1990 Gulf War

2,300

1,700

8,000

7,500

1979 Oil Crisis

2,100 1,900

8,500

2004

7,000

1973 Oil Crisis

6,500 6,000

1,500

5,500

1,300

5,000

1,100

4,500

2007 Economic Recession

900 1970

1975

1980

1985

VMT

1990

1995

2000

2005

Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel per Capita

Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel (Billions)

2,500

4,000 2010

VMT/Capita

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 5

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Urban Congestion Percentage of Peak VMT Experiencing Congestion

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1982

Los Angeles Phoenix 1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

Data source: Texas Transportation Institute 2012 Annual Mobility Report Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 6

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Building more roadway infrastructure that we cannot finance in the long-term.

+ Younger generations are not adopting automobiles at the same rate as previous generations.

+

Congestion is increasing leading to decreases in mobility.

An Equilibrium: Activities & Infrastructure 

How we use our urban engineered systems is an equilibrium between activities and infrastructure.



Cities grow (and infrastructure is deployed) with the dominant technologies of the time.



For the past two hundred years these technologies have relied largely on carbon-based fuels and non-renewable resource use, produce lots of waste.



We’ve become much more aware of the environmental, economic, and social impacts of these technologies.

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 8

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Challenge: Infrastructure Lock-in 

For decades and centuries we’ve deployed infrastructure (buildings, roads, electricity supply, water, etc.)  



They are highly coupled, often with non-engineered systems They are often managed by institutions that have been configured to promote infrastructure use in a twentieth-century growth model

As we identify future sustainability goals or trajectories for our engineered systems, we must acknowledge how locked-in (or path-dependent) our engineered systems are 

Our ability to improve the sustainability of our systems may be “gated”

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 9

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

A Tale of Two Cities

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 10

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

A Tale of Two Cities LOS ANGELES

PHOENIX

303 Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 11

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 12

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Transportation: Network Growth

Andrew Fraser and Mikhail Chester, 2013, Life-cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Costs of the Deployment of the Los Angeles Roadway Network, Working Paper SSEBE-CESEM-2013-WPS-001, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, http://repository.asu.edu/items/16574.

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 13

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Growth of Roadway Infrastructure in Los Angeles County, CA Centerline Road Kilometers

45000 40000 35000 30000

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Local

Collector

Arterial

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 14

Highway Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Los Angeles Case Study “L.A. and Orange Counties are an Epicenter of Overcrowded Housing” Los Angeles Times 8 March 2014 http://goo.gl/HIEOLX

Area (mi2)

Density (people/mi2)

Los Angeles

4,850

2,645

Phoenix

1,150

252

Infrastructure & Emergent Behavior:

LA’s Infrastructure is saturated and may be constraining supply. Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 15

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Los Angeles MILLION PEOPLE

Population 12 10 8 6 4 2 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Auto Travel

2000 PEAK

2010 RECESSION

BILLION VKT

200 150 100 50 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 16

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

A Tale of Two Cities LOS ANGELES

PHOENIX

Population ~ 10 million

Population ~ 5 million

LA Metro

Valley Metro

 3,000 vehicles

 1,100 vehicles

 6 rail lines / 2 BRT

 1 rail line

 170 bus routes

 101 bus routes

 100 million VMT

 29 million VMT

 476 million trips

 74 million trips

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 17

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Transportation: Rail to Roads to Rail High-capacity transit coverage today

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 18

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

200

20,000

180

18,000

160

16,000

140

14,000

120

12,000

100

10,000

80

8,000

60

6,000

40

4,000

20

2,000

-

Annual Per Capita VKT

Annual VKT in LA County (billions)

Peak Car Travel

1950

1960

1970

1980

LA County VKT

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 19

1990

2000

2010

VKT/Capita

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Growth of Roadway Infrastructure in Los Angeles County, CA Centerline Road Kilometers

45000 40000 35000 30000

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Local

Collector

Arterial

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 20

Highway Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Shifting Burdens Center Line Road Kilometers

LOCAL

ARTERIAL

5,000

1,000

4,000

800

3,000

600

2,000

400

1,000

200

0 1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

0 1900

2000

1920

COLLECTOR

1940

1960

1980

2000

1980

2000

HIGHWAY

600

100

500

80

400

60

300 40

200

20

100 0 1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

0 1900

1920

1940

1960

■ Construction ■ Reconstruction ■ Resurface ■ Surface Treatment Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 21

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Costs of Construction and Maintenance Annual Construction and Maintenance Costs (Billions)

$1.4 $1.2

$1.0 $0.8 $0.6 $0.4 $0.2 $1900

1920

1940 Construction

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 22

1960

1980

2000

Maintenance

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Parking

PARKING INFRASTRUCTURE

Los Angeles Parking Space Density

Mikhail Chester, Andrew Fraser, Juan Matute, Carolyn Flower, and Ram Pendyala, 2015, Parking Infrastructure: A Constraint on or Opportunity for Urban Redevelopment? A Study of Los Angeles County Parking Supply and Growth, Journal of the American Planning Association, Volume and Issue Forthcoming. Additional project information is available at www.transportationlca.org/losangelesparking/

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 25

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

PHOENIX

A maturing Infrastructure…

Percentage

Phoenix Congestion 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1982

Travel (% of Peak VMT)

Travel (% of lane-miles)

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

Data source: Texas Transportation Institute 2012 Annual Mobility Report Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 27

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester, Arizona State University

Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester, Arizona State University

Phoenix Cumulative Roadway Miles 25,000

Local 20,000

40%

Collector Arterial

15,000

Interstate

10,000

5,000

0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 30

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Natural Limits to Infrastructure Services? 12,000

30

10,000

25 8,000 20 6,000 15

4,000 10 2,000

5

County

Per Capita Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled

Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled in Phoenix Metro Area (billions)

35

Per Capita

-

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 31

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Unsustainable Long-term Financing? $7

8th highest ranked city in the U.S. for transportation and housing expenditures to income.

Billion 2012 Dollars

$6 $5

$4 $3 $2 $1 $-

1950

1955

1960

Roadway Construction

1965

1970

1975

Roadway Maintenance

1980

1985

1990

Roadway Resurfacing

1995

2000

2005

2010

Passenger Vehicle Fuel Costs

Source: Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 32

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Unsustainable Long-term Financing? $7 $6 $5

Phoenix

$4 $3 $2 $1 $1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Los Angeles

$18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $-

Source: Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 33

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Emergent Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicle Travel Teragrams of CO2 equivalence

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -

1950

1955

1960

Roadway Construction

1965

1970

1975

Roadway Maintenance

1980

1985

1990

Roadway Resurfacing

1995

2000

2005

2010

Passenger Vehicle Fuel Combustion

Source: Mindy Kimball and Mikhail Chester Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 34

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Challenge: Financing and Fuels $7 $6 $5

Phoenix

$4 $3 $2 $1 $1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

 We will need to pay for the upkeep of infrastructure into the future, in perpetuity  Rising fuel costs (technology changes?) and finite road capacity, finite roadway supply Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 35

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

Challenge: Resiliency 

Are we deploying the final stages of twentieth century infrastructure or the first pieces of twenty-first century infrastructure?



Are our infrastructure systems prepared for twenty-first century demands?    

Electric vehicles Active transport Large shares of renewables Resource constraints

Mikhail V. Chester, Ph.D. | Arizona State University | 17 November 2015 Arizona Pavement Materials Conference | Slide 36

Infrastructure Growth and its Unintended Environmental Impacts

www.urbantransitions.org [email protected] mikhailchester