Understanding Broadband demand in Africa: Internet going Mobile Prof Alison Gillwald, University of Cape Town Executive Director, Research ICT Africa. Broadband as a Video Platform: Strategies for Africa, Lusaka, May 2012.
Data in this presentation are first round high level descriptive findings only and will be confirmed and developed over the next few months. Tuesday 29 May 12
Research ICT Africa RIA seeks to build an African evidence and knowledge base in support of ICT policy and regulatory processes, and to monitor and review policy and regulatory developments on the continent. Part of this effort is the generation of relevant information for policy makers and regulators. The RIA 2011 eAccess & Usage Survey delivers nationally representative indicators on household, individual and small business level. The survey uses national census sampling frames in co-operation with National Statistical Offices to deliver crucial data in a cost effective way.
Tuesday 29 May 12
Let them eat cellphones.. Soon just about everyone will be connected to some form of mobile...most homes passed by some network and have electricity. Broadband penetration driven by platform competition - cable and coaxial- satellite platform not pervasive Market/state Spectrum auction dividends for broadband roll out to underserved areas. Mobile voice substitution in absence of fixed voice, mobile data substitution in absence of fixed broadband. Wireless vs fixed cost average costs vs high installation costs... Diseconomies of speed for wireless and economies of speed for wireline Demands of HDTV and downloading audiovisual content Who pays? Private sector, State, PPP, GDD per capita. - South Africa, Botswana DESPITE THE BENEFITS OF MOBILE ACCESS THE GAP BETWEEN THOSE USING STRIPPED DOWN APPLICATIONS AND PULL SERVICES AND THOSE WITH HIGH SPEED ALWAYS ON NETWORKS
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Total
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Sample Size
15,300
6,200
21,500
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Tuesday 29 May 12
Purpose Lack of data - decision relevant data for ICT policy making and regulation PARTNERSHIP ON MEASURING ICT FOR DEVELOPMENT: delivers all indicators required by the Partnership for household, individuals, and businesses COST EFFECTIVE: Using Enumerator Areas (EA) of national census sample frames and samples households, small business simultaneously minimizes costs. SCOPE :Apart from delivering ICT indicators required by international bodies the survey delivers data and analysis for several regulatory functions such as pricing regulation, number portability and universal access. LINKAGES:explains interactions between households, individuals and informal and smallbusinesses on ICT access and usage.
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Household access
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Tuesday 29 May 12
Household ownership of the following...
Tuesday 29 May 12
Household ownership of the following... 62,3
South Africa Ghana
76,6
12,9
1,5
Namibia
63,1
18,3
3,2
33,9
Cameroon
44,3
21,1
Rwanda
1,7
Ethiopia
3,0 0
72,0
40,6
17,7
Tanzania
71,8
54,1
8,0
Uganda
Tuesday 29 May 12
78,2
34,9
72,4
9,0 40,7
10,0 20
40
60
80
Household ownership of the following... 62,3
South Africa Ghana
76,6
12,9
1,5
Namibia
63,1
18,3
3,2
33,9
Cameroon
44,3
21,1
Rwanda
1,7
Ethiopia
3,0 0
72,4
9,0 40,7
10,0 20
Radio
72,0
40,6
17,7
Tanzania
71,8
54,1
8,0
Uganda
Tuesday 29 May 12
78,2
34,9
40 TV
Satellite Decoder or Cable
60
80
Household ownership of the following... 62,3
South Africa Ghana
76,6
12,9
1,5
Namibia
63,1
18,3
3,2
33,9
Cameroon
44,3
21,1
Rwanda
1,7
Ethiopia
3,0 0
72,4
9,0 40,7
10,0 20
Radio
72,0
40,6
17,7
Tanzania
71,8
54,1
8,0
Uganda
Tuesday 29 May 12
78,2
34,9
40 TV
Satellite Decoder or Cable
60
80
Household ownership of the following... 62,3
South Africa Ghana
76,6
12,9
1,5
Namibia
63,1
18,3
3,2
33,9
Cameroon
44,3
21,1
Rwanda
1,7
Ethiopia
3,0 0
72,4
9,0 40,7
10,0 20
Radio
72,0
40,6
17,7
Tanzania
71,8
54,1
8,0
Uganda
Tuesday 29 May 12
78,2
34,9
40 TV
Satellite Decoder or Cable
60
80
Household ownership of the following... 62,3
South Africa Ghana
76,6
12,9
1,5
Namibia
63,1
18,3
3,2
33,9
Cameroon
44,3
21,1
Rwanda
1,7
Ethiopia
3,0 0
72,4
9,0 40,7
10,0 20
Radio
72,0
40,6
17,7
Tanzania
71,8
54,1
8,0
Uganda
Tuesday 29 May 12
78,2
34,9
40 TV
Satellite Decoder or Cable
60
80
Strength of TV signal in your Area... 7,5
South Africa
16,5
74,7
Ghana
29,2
Uganda
76,8
12,2 10,9
Namibia
49,3
7,2
Tanzania
43,5 42,1
22,5
Cameroon
26,6
Rwanda
10,0
Ethiopia
73,0 60,3
28,0 20
No Reception
35,4 37,4 36,0
17,1
11,8 0
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36,6 34,2
Weak (unclear picture/sound)
40
60 Strong (clear picture/sound)
80
Households with Internet Connection... 20
19,7
15
11,5 10
5 2,7 1,3 0
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South Africa
Namibia
Ghana
Cameroon
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,5
Uganda
Tanzania
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Type of Internet connection used by Household... 80
75,3
59,8
60
56,4
54,8
40
34,8
22 20
16,3
4,9 0
ISDN
ADSL
3G South Africa
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7,5
4,5 Mobile Phone Namibia
Wireless
Main Reasons for not having Internet connection in household... 43,6
South Africa
10,7
50
Ghana
18,7
27,7
Uganda
39,7 77,1
6,2
49,8
Cameroon
23,7
57,9
Rwanda
5,2 0
Cannot Afford it
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45,3
14,5
Tanzania
Ethiopia
24,9
22,2
24,4
Namibia
30,9
25 Not Available in Area
26,3 22,7
41,3
16,2
16,9
40,7 50
75
Do not know how to use it
100
Mobile
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15+ mobile phone owners 2007
2011 62,1%
South Africa
59,8% 59,5%
Ghana Namibia 27,0%
Uganda
21,5%
Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia
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9,9% 3,2%
24,4% 18,3%
49,3% 56,1% 46,7%
35,8% 36,5% 44,5%
86%
15+ mobile phone owners 2007
2011 62,1%
South Africa
59,8% 59,5%
Ghana Namibia 27,0%
Uganda
21,5%
Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia
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9,9% 3,2%
24,4% 18,3%
49,3% 56,1% 46,7%
35,8% 36,5% 44,5%
86%
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Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card
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Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%
98,0%
99,5%
99,0%
91,8%
98,4%
90,1%
87,3%
a
uth
So
Tuesday 29 May 12
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Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%
98,0%
99,5%
99,0%
91,8%
98,4%
90,1%
87,3%
a
uth
So
Tuesday 29 May 12
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Prepaid SIM card
ia
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op i h t
Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%
98,0%
99,5%
99,0%
91,8%
98,4%
90,1%
87,3%
a
uth
So
Tuesday 29 May 12
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Prepaid SIM card
ia
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Rw
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op i h t
Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%
98,0%
99,5%
99,0%
91,8%
98,4%
90,1%
87,3%
a
uth
So
Tuesday 29 May 12
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Na
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Prepaid SIM card
ia
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Rw
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Mobile Internet: handset & browsing South Africa
26,0% 30,7% 23,8% 28,5%
Namibia Ghana Tanzania Uganda Cameroon
13,4% 5,2% 7,7% 8,1%
Rwanda Ethiopia
6,5% 5,1%
19,2%
14,9% 14,9%
Data is not affordable
19,1% 14,9%
Internet enable handset
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48,6%
Using the mobile for browsing
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What are you using your mobile phone for?
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What are you using your mobile phone for? South Africa
15,3%
Namibia
12,3% 11,3% 9,5% 13,4%
Ghana
6,7% 6,0% 7,7% 4,7% 5,2% 5,2% 7,7% 4,3% 8,1%
Uganda Tanzania Cameroon
13,6% 13,3% 14,9%
Rwanda Ethiopia
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2,1% 5,1%
9,8%
23,5% 26,0%
17,3% 23,8%
What are you using your mobile phone for? South Africa
15,3%
Namibia
12,3%
6,7% 6,0% 7,7% 4,7% 5,2% 5,2% 7,7% 4,3% 8,1%
Uganda Tanzania Cameroon
13,6% 13,3% 14,9%
Rwanda Ethiopia
2,1% 5,1%
9,8%
Using the mobile for social networking Using the mobile for email Using the mobile for browsing the Internet
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26,0%
17,3%
11,3% 9,5% 13,4%
Ghana
23,5%
23,8%
What are you using your mobile phone for? South Africa
15,3%
Namibia
12,3%
6,7% 6,0% 7,7% 4,7% 5,2% 5,2% 7,7% 4,3% 8,1%
Uganda Tanzania Cameroon
13,6% 13,3% 14,9%
Rwanda Ethiopia
2,1% 5,1%
9,8%
Using the mobile for social networking Using the mobile for email Using the mobile for browsing the Internet
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26,0%
17,3%
11,3% 9,5% 13,4%
Ghana
23,5%
23,8%
Computer
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Ownership and use of computer 26,8%
Do you use a computer (Desktop or laptop)?
10,0%
At home
64,7%
Work
40,9%
Internet Cafe School, University At a friends place Library
25,8% 21,9% 15,4% 6,3%
Namibia
Eth
an
iop
da
ia
2,0%
At home
53,3%
Work At a friends place School, University
43,0% 31,4% 25,6%
Internet Cafe
20,1%
Library
20,0%
Where do you use the computer?
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South Africa
3,5%
1,9% za
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Gh
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Afr
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4,8%
Ta n
13,0%
15,1%
Use of Computer South Africa Writing, editing documents
72,5%
Browsing the Internet
70,5%
Playing games
61,7%
Spreadsheets such as Excel Remixing content: music, videos
52,7% 34,5% Namibia
Writing, editing documents
64,2%
Browsing the Internet
55,8%
Spreadsheets such as Excel
54,1%
Playing games Remixing content: music, videos
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49,9% 35,3%
Internet
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15+ using the Internet 2007
2011
15,0%
South Africa 8,8%
Namibian Ghana
5,6%
Uganda
2,4%
Tanzania
2,2% 3,5%
Ethiopia
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12,7%
7,9%
Cameroon Rwanda
15,9%
2,0% 6,0% 0,7% 2,7%
13,0% 14,1%
32,5%
Share of Internet users by years since they first used the Internet 1 year or less Namibia South Africa Ghana Uganda Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia
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2
3
4
5 or more
11,9 18,2 25,7 17,2 27 16,7 17,2 12,8 9,4 44 18,3 15,3 12,1 8,6 45,6 28,4 20,7 30,1 7 13,9 29,4 2,5 26,7 2,8 38,4 19,1 15,3 15,8 10,6 39,2 8,8 24,1 7,2 43,6 16,5 47,8 14,2 16,9 7,2 13,9
Frequency of Internet use in the last 3 months South Africa
63,7
Namibia
58,9
Tanzania
Uganda Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia Every day or almost every day Tuesday 29 May 12
5,9
35,2
51,9
Ghana
10,5
24,8
24,1
24
43,1
25,2
31,4
27,6
23,4
49
19,2
40,5
39,4 56,8 46,1
At least once a week
25,2 42,8
18 8,8
At least once a month or less
Internet usage VS computer usage Internet usage
Do you use a computer (Desktop or laptop)?
South Africa Namibia Ghana Uganda Tanzania
Ethiopia
Tuesday 29 May 12
18,9% 15,9% 13,0%
7,3%
12,7% 10,0%
5,6% 7,9% 4,8% 3,2% 3,5% 1,9% 1,3%
Cameroon Rwanda
Total population using a computer for browsing the Internet
9,3% 6,0% 3,5% 3,1% 2,7% 2,0% 0,8%
14,1% 15,1%
26,8%
32,5%
Where did you use the Internet first? 26,8%
Do you use a computer (Desktop or laptop)? 15,1%
13,0%
10,0% 4,8% 3,5% 2,0% 1,9%
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71,8% 66,6%
ia
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54,2% 48,1% 37,8% 29,2% 29,5%
17,9%
Cameroon Rwanda
Ghana South Africa Namibia Tanzania Ethiopia
Uganda
Share of Internet users who used Internet first on a mobile phone Tuesday 29 May 12
Location of Internet use Any place via a mobile phone Place of education (school etc) Namibia
27,1
Work Internet facility/Internet caffee
36,0
Tanzania 18,5
Ghana 9,8
20,1
Rwanda
Tuesday 29 May 12
44,6
24,4
South Africa
Ethiopia
81,3
55,0 51,2
Uganda
Cameroon
87,1
48,4
50,9
52,1 50,2
30,7 17,5 20,9
62,8
34,6 31,7 34,6 33,6 29,7
42,2
74,0 74,7 72,5
61,2
70,9
80,0 80,9
15+ years or older that never used the Internet South Africa
No interest / not useful
Reasons I don’t know for not how to use it using the No computer / Internet Internet connection Too expensive
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Namibia
Uganda
Tanzania
Ghana
Cameroon
Rwanda
Ethiopia
42%
59,1%
57,9%
57,9%
64,5%
64,3%
43,1%
2,1%
76,5%
88,1%
89,4%
95,6%
94,2%
90,8%
77,9%
10,1%
86,4%
90,7%
83,4%
96,2%
85,1%
84,2%
72,5%
9,6%
60%
78,4%
77,3%
84,7%
71,2%
56,1%
74,1%
5,0%
Internet going mobile Total population using a computer for browsing the Internet Total population using a mobile phone for browsing the Internet
18,9% 22,0%
South Africa Namibia Ghana Uganda Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia
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7,3% 5,6% 8,0% 3,2% 3,6% 1,3% 1,9% 9,3% 3,6% 3,1% 3,6% 0,8% 0,9%
13,4%
What is driving mobile Internet
usage? Using the mobile for emails
Using mobile for social networking 15,3%
South Africa 12,3%
Namibia
9,5%
Ghana Uganda
6,0%
Tanzania
5,2% 4,7% 4,3%
Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia
Tuesday 29 May 12
2,1%
17,3%
11,3%
6,7%
7,7% 13,3%
9,8%
23,5%
13,6%
Policy implications and recommendations
Tuesday 29 May 12
Tuesday 29 May 12
Policy implications Problem of club consortium monopoly provision of high priced international bandwidth of SAT 3 overcome with multiple cables land on West Coast and East Coast. Wholesale cost reductions, some of which have been passed on to retail consumers but tendency to provide more bandwidth for lower cost but still relatively high prices... from policy point of view not increase access but improve quality of access. That being said Internet enabled mobile phones and mobile Internet applications mean increased data across wireless networks dimensioned for voice. Real challenge terrestrial backbone and backhaul networks to carry data - fibre rings but little arterial broadband networks (absence of legacy networks to bolt on - greenfield opportunities?) Consider aggregate existing state owned backbone into common carrier (structural separation) Citizen equity and global competitiveness requires high bandwidth 24/7 - this will have to be delivered through hybrid wireless and fixed systems - not one or the other
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Recommendations Create conditions conducive to FDI - policy enabled market entry, certain regulatory environment, - currently under capitalised, private sector not adequately mobilised, limited state/regulatory capacity to regulate effectively and manage supplier contracts. Demand stimulation - National e-literacy campaign to enable equitable access development of relevant content, tax rebates or tax exemption/subsidies etc .
In the meantime - release spectrum on competitive basis to deliver meet demand for broadband services and develop m-services - enable mobile money - pensions. Effective regulation of competitive market - (skilled and autonomous NRAs) Reduce prices to create critical mass necessary for network effects associated with economic growth and innovation.
Tuesday 29 May 12
