2016-2017
People first in a digital age
Nathaniel Raymond on
The True Purpose of Collective Intelligence Beerend Hierck & Thomas Hurkxkens:
THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CITY
LEARNING IN MIXED REALITY
with Saskia Sassen Interview with Liesbet van Zoonen:
SHAPING SOCIETY WITH BIG DATA
Jan Adriaanse talks about
Success Factors in Business and Education
Robert Zwijnenberg on
THE ETHICAL DEBATE:
What Does It Mean to Be Human?
1 Welcome
Gideon Shimshon Director Centre for Innovation Leiden University
A MP I E TH ONS N I E O O VAT C N RE INN E RE FE NF CO UTU LI F AN OF UM H ON
WELCOME TO THE TREND REPORT
CT
THE FUTURE DOES NOT HAPPEN TO US, WE HAPPEN TO IT
Dear reader,
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E C N E I SC PHY S O Y L I R PH UST G D N N I I L L E T Y OR
It is a pleasure to present you with our first Trend Report reflecting on the digital and societal trends which we believe are and will be shaping our lives and futures in the years to come. In the wake of the current ‘digital revolution’ in technology and bioscience, we are constantly reminded of the agency we have as humanity to shape the future. We see on a daily basis how innovation is impacting the way we live, learn and work. Along with the rise of new technologies such as intelligent devices, self-driving cars and new wearable tech also comes the creation and access to large amounts of (personal) data. This means we have to ask questions about the way we govern ourselves
and the technologies we create. What do we mean when we talk about issues like trust, privacy and consent? What do they mean in a digital age? There is a thin line between new technology’s usefulness (I can find my friends through this app; I can cure diseases by reconfiguring my DNA) and uneasiness (everyone always knows where I am through this app; I can decide what my child looks like by reconfiguring their DNA). In this Trend Report, we explore humanity’s opportunities and obligations as well as the role higher education plays in this new digital era. To do this, we asked thought leaders, academics and experts in their fields to reflect on one of six specific tech-society trends. The insights of these colleagues, friends and partners, and their questions and future visions of the digitised world are
truly inspiring. I would like to thank every one of them for making this report possible. I hope that this Trend Report inspires and informs your thinking and actions as you shape the future. Warm wishes, Gideon Shimshon
In this trend report, we explore humanity’s opportunities and obligations as well as the role higher education plays in this new digital era.
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3 Contents
Contents
CO N T ENT S 01
WELCOME BY GIDEON SHIMSHON
05 UNIVERSITIES HAVE A PIVOTAL ROLE IN CREATING SOCIETAL CHANGE Hester Bijl 06 INNOVATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION 08
REPORTING ON TRENDS
09 SHIFTING THE STARTING POINT: SHOULD WE GIVE MORE PRIORITY TO SOCIETAL IMPACT? Ulrich Mans & Lucy Bernholz 11 LEARNING EXPERIENCE DESIGN: A NEW WAY OF LEARNING Sjoerd Louwaars
12TREND 1: VIRTUAL EMPATHY Can mixed media make us more empathic towards the real world around us? 16
22 Interview with Dries Verhoeven GUILTY LANDSCAPES I want viewers to reconsider their own behaviour and perspective of the world
24TREND 2: HUMAN ENHANCEMENT Human enhancement and ethics: how far should we go?
19 ENCOURAGING EMPATHY VIA VIRTUAL INTERACTIONS
Shawnee Baughman & Jeremy Bailenson Virtual reality allows us to experience empathy on a deeper level
Cristóbal Cobo
What does it mean to know in a context in which machines are developing learning capabilities?
44TREND 4: IMPACT ECONOMY The future of work in the 21st century
29 NATURA ARTIS MAGISTRA? THE NECESSITY OF ART IN THE PUBLIC DEBATE ON HUMAN ENHANCEMENT
49 WELCOME TO THE HUMAN-TO-HUMAN PURPOSE- AND EXPERIENCE-DRIVEN ERA
We will see a foundational shift in our collective definition of success
Robert Zwijnenberg
Within the life sciences, the ethical debate on what it is to be human has practically disappeared
32TREND 3: DIGITAL LIFE How will technology and digital data influence society?
LEARNING IN MIXED REALITY
Beerend Hierck & Thomas Hurkxkens
42 NOW THAT MACHINES CAN LEARN: CAN WE INTEGRATE HUMAN AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCES?
37 Interview with Bibi van den Berg PROTECTING PRIVACY IN A DIGITAL WORLD Raising awareness and helping citizens protect their data can be done efficiently on a local level 40 Interview with Liesbet van Zoonen THE BOLD CITY: SHAPING SOCIETY WITH BIG DATA The idea that we can shape our society with big data is growing
Ayelet Baron & Tim MacDonald
52 Interview with Jan Adriaanse STEERING TOWARDS THE FUTURE: HOW DO WE ADAPT? We need to think about a university without lecture halls run by professors
54TREND 5: COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE How can we use collective intelligence to do good?
59 THE TRUE PURPOSE OF COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Nathaniel Raymond
Every new way of seeing carries with it some new way of being blind 60 PRESERVING THE HUMAN EDGE: THE FUTURE OF QUANTIFIED FORECASTING
Regina Joseph
Within the public sector, government agencies, ministries and NGOs, take-up of crowdsourced quantified forecasting platforms has begun
62TREND 6: HACKING UNCERTAINTY Living with uncertainty: where are we headed? 67 Interview with Saskia Sassen THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CITY There is probably much more room to innovate in most cities than we think 70
FOREIGN POLICY IN A VUCA WORLD
Lex Hoogduin & Jochem Wiers
Science and technology will not make diplomacy obsolete: it will transform it 72 Interview with Jonah Sachs EXCELLING IN INNOVATION IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD We want to have conversations with prominent innovators not just about what they’ve done, but the attitudes, practices and mindsets that have allowed them to do it
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5 Column
Colophon
CO LOP H O N
TREND REPORT 2016-2017
Hester Bijl Vice-Rector Magnificus Leiden University
This Trend Report was created by Leiden University’s Centre for Innovation
CREATING IMPACT IN SOCIETY IS CRUCIAL FOR MODERN UNIVERSITIES
Schouwburgstraat 2 2511 VA The Hague The Netherlands www.centre4innovation.org
[email protected] Twitter: @C4Innovation
Leiden University is an internationally operating research-driven university with a wide range of academic disciplines and degree programmes. We aim for excellence in research and teaching. And strive for maximum impact, academic, as well as societal, economic and cultural.
EDITORS: Saskia Iseard, Melissa Amorós Lark, Ulrich Mans, Myrthe Oostenbach, Gideon Shimshon, Anika van de Wijngaard CONTRIBUTORS: Jan Adriaanse, Jeremy Bailenson, Ayelet Baron, Shawnee Baughman, Bibi van den Berg, Lucy Bernholz, Hester Bijl, Cristóbal Cobo, Beerend Hierck, Lex Hoogduin, Thomas Hurkxkens, Regina Joseph, Sjoerd Louwaars, Tim MacDonald, Ulrich Mans, Nathaniel Raymond, Jonah Sachs, Saskia Sassen, Gideon Shimshon, Dries Verhoeven, Jochem Wiers, Liesbet van Zoonen, Robert Zwijnenberg DESIGN & PRINT: DUOCORE ART DIRECTION: Marta Klement PHOTOGRAPHY & ILLUSTRATION: Centre for Innovation, Adobe Stock, Marta Klement, Mirjam Verhoog
All rights reserved © Centre for Innovation and the authors who contributed to this Trend Report
Innovations, in relation to teaching and research, are important to reach our goals with respect to quality and impact. With our teaching we aim to educate students to become academic professionals and responsible and engaged citizens who are inter-culturally and internationally competent. Hereto Leiden University offers a researchdriven, international learning environment where an active and ambitious attitude is encouraged,
and where students participate actively and work hard to achieve their ambitions. In order to remain at the forefront with our teaching continuous innovation is of extreme importance. Researchers at Leiden University carry out top-level research that makes significant contributions to a safe, healthy, sustainable, prosperous and just world. Innovations emerge from scientific research that aims to make the unknown known and to push the boundaries of existing fields of research. Leiden University’s Centre for Innovation, known for its innovative developments, is, therefore, very important. With their initiatives in the area of digitalisation of education and research, with their learning experience designs, as well as with their collaborative projects such as this Trend Report, Leiden
University’s Centre for Innovation has impact on academia, as well as on society. This Trend Report is a healthy starting point for discussion and a valuable asset to our staff and the partners we work with, to encourage genuine collaboration and foster innovation.
Innovations emerge from scientific research that aims to make the unknown known and to push the boundaries of existing fields of research.
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7 Driving Innovation
People First in a Digital Age
INNOVATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION
PEOPLE FIRST IN A DIGITAL AGE W
e believe that education and research need to be fuelled by innovation, so that people and societies across the world will benefit – now and in the future. That’s why our motto at the Centre for Innovation is ‘People first in a digital age’. We aim to develop innovation-driven
solutions that matter, across the areas of technology, research, education and society. Based on our work, we give projections of upcoming technological trends and ask ourselves: how will these technological innovations and changes affect our personal lives and society at large and what can we do to make it work for us all?
Driving Innovation THE CENTRE FOR INNOVATION IS A UNIVERSITY-WIDE ‘DO-TANK’ COMMITTED TO DRIVING INNOVATION FOR THE BENEFIT OF SOCIETY. We aim to: 1. Encourage thinking and the development of learning and teaching innovation throughout the university. 2. Facilitate the connection between the relevant research and education disciplines of Leiden University and The Hague as the City of Peace and Justice. 3. Develop entrepreneurship, education and activities for the university in close collaboration with the faculties.
4. C reate new and durable networks between the university and external partners, especially around the themes of innovation, technology and global challenges. 5. Report on the latest tech trends and encourage reflection on imminent technological trends that will have an impact on education and research.
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Ulrich Mans & Lucy Bernholz
REPORTING ON TRENDS
Trend noun \’trend\
a general direction in which something is developing
1.VIRTUAL EMPATHY 2.HUMAN ENHANCEMENT 3.DIGITAL LIFE 4.IMPACT ECONOMY 5.COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE 6.HACKING UNCERTAINTY
The executive board of Leiden University has given the Centre for Innovation the task of looking at emerging technological and societal trends, and their potential impact on academic education and research, and on society as a whole. The method we used to select the trends for this report was threefold: we reviewed recent research projects by leading universities as well as observed trending topics at conferences; we talked to thought leaders to ask what they saw as upcoming trends in the tech-society fields; and we reflected on our own current innovation projects which we explore and develop with academic partners, NGOs and businesses. As a result, we shortlisted six trends that we think are shaping and will continue to shape the future of higher education and society as a whole. Each of the six trends highlights the relation between societal developments and new technologies. By combining these two areas we hope to provide a different perspective on the nature of technological innovation and its impact on the world. We have chosen to apply a magazine-style approach to this Trend Report, thereby allowing space to introduce each topic, before going deeper into the subject matter with the help of featured contributions by and interviews with academics and thought leaders in their specific field. Each trend also features a section that reflects on the question of how technology is transforming education and how knowledge institutions can stay relevant in a rapidly changing world. Throughout the report, we also ask societal and ethical questions that we hope could form the basis of debate and future research. We hope that this publication will reach a wide audience of different backgrounds, interests and viewpoints, and encourages open discussion and debate.
SHIFTING THE STARTING POINT: SHOULD WE GIVE MORE PRIORITY TO SOCIETAL IMPACT? INTRODUCING D-SEARCH: WHY UNIVERSITIES NEED TO ENGAGE MORE CLOSELY WITH KNOWLEDGE HOLDERS OUTSIDE ACADEMIC CIRCLES
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uch of today’s debate about the future of academia highlights the separation between fundamental and applied research philosophies. Without the freedom to explore new terrains and without preconceived targets for societal impact, we will lose much of the curiosity, serendipity and dedication to detail that is needed to push for the radically new. At the same time, universities need to engage more closely with those who hold knowledge outside academic circles, and listen to those who will put new ideas into practice. Creating sustainable, permeable relationships across disciplines and sectors can develop new research domains and accelerate the application of their findings. Doing so also embeds university expertise and resources directly in society in ways that align with today’s rapid distributed approaches to change. The advantages are threefold: 1) it fits a fast-moving environment,
as it enables quick feedback loops and a more agile approach; 2) it creates impact at the front end of the academic cycle and therefore justifies resources to be invested in further investments, including (fundamental) research trajectories; and 3) it stimulates transdisciplinary science that integrates local knowledge from citizens, public and private parties, many of whom may not have an academic mandate. This way it generates new avenues for universities to engage with society and reduces the effects of a classic ‘ivory tower’ phenomenon. As Professor Tim Lewens writes in his recent book The Meaning of Science, there is not enough local knowledge that enters the research trajectories of today’s universities: ‘The successful mobilisation of research for valuable ends demands attention to the sort of local knowledge that science often overlooks.’ (2015). Therefore it is important to invest in activities that underpin a
university’s responsibility to explore the right balance between these two positions. We can do this by introducing an approach which embraces trajectories that could be labelled ‘d-search’ – the ‘d’ standing for ‘design’ or ‘discover’. In other words: make innovation the starting point and let it feed research trajectories. We do not contend that this should be a mainstream approach; for now, it is an experimental avenue that supports finding new entry points of scientific enquiry. It encourages meaningful input from those shaping innovation outside our campuses.
there is not enough local knowledge that enters the research trajectories of today’s universities
Starting the Shifting Point
Reporting on Trends
FEAT URE
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works for Leiden University’s Centre for Innovation and is responsible for designing new ways for academics to engage with policy practice. He holds a PhD in Environmental Science from the University of Amsterdam and an MA in International Development Studies from Nijmegen University. Before joining the Centre, he worked for various think tanks, the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NGOs in the peace and justice sector.
Lucy Bernholz
Professor Alfonso Fuggetta explains that ‘innovation produces experiences, feedback and challenges that feed the research process’ (2012). A radical consequence could be that research is disconnected from the university as a location. Former president of George Washington University Stephen Joel Trachtenberg suggested that: “[a]cademics will still be needed to conduct research […] but where it will take place is not clear. Perhaps “community” labs will appear in tech zones, where academics can rent facilities like digital start-ups.” (2017).
is a Senior Research Scholar at Stanford University’s Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society and Director of the Digital Civil Society Lab. She is the author of numerous articles and books, and writes extensively on philanthropy, technology and policy on her award-winning blog, philanthropy2173.com.
space open to anyone within or from outside the university. In d-search environments as they are designed by the Centre for Innovation, emphasis rests on a truly agile approach, driven by rapid prototyping, repeated iterations and enough outside-in perspective to allow for scrutiny from various angles. This is why we apply design-thinking principles across all our projects: even seemingly unrelated expertise might contribute to solving a challenge. The d-search approach assumes that along the way, research questions emerge, academic expertise can be used, reused or verified. While the ‘d’ –design– activities serves our partners outside the university to innovate something of relevance in partnership with universities, it generates a plethora of new avenues for ’r’ –research– trajectories. Locating researchers outside the university, and connecting public innovators to the research process, will strengthen scholarship and society. These connections will be able to sustain and advance research in our age of distributed capacity and expertise.
Sources: Lewens, T. (2015). The meaning of science. 1st ed. Gretna: Pelican.
For d-search trajectories, we suggest adopting the concept of innovation spaces as separate to, but closely linked with the core university workflows. This is in line with Fuggetta’s recommendation to ‘develop specific operational entities, intermediate bodies, that can effectively execute and develop [a society-serving] model’ (2017). Many of the existing ‘Living Labs’ offer such an engagement
Fuggetta, A. (2012). 3+1 Challenges for the future of universities. Journal of Systems and Software, 85(10), pp.24172424. Trachtenberg, S. (2017). Future perfect: what will universities look like in 2030?. [online] Times Higher Education (THE). Available at: https://www.
LEARNING EXPERIENCE DESIGN: A NEW WAY OF LEARNING What makes an experience both educational and inspiring? And how do you design such an experience? That’s what Learning Experience Design (LXD) is all about. LXD is a movement of designers, teachers, educational experts, scientists and publishers who are looking for better ways to learn. They propose an integral design methodology and learner-centred approach to education, and have identified four developments in learning methods that could help shape the education of the future:
1. FROM KNOWLEDGE TO BEHAVIOUR Successfully transferring knowledge is only one aspect of learning: gaining insights, building new skills and creating proactive behaviour are desired learning outcomes of equal measure. The LXD methodology rewards active behaviour by evaluating process instead of output. By encouraging students to analyse, experiment and implement projects, as well as asking them to reflect on their experience, they can build confidence to fail and learn to adapt to changing circumstances. 2. FROM CONSUMERS TO PRODUCERS By allowing students to choose their own subject matter, we give them autonomy of their own learning process with an aim to motivate and empower. The purpose of this self-directed approach is to turn students from consumers of information into producers of knowledge. This challenge-based learning aims to encourage an appetite for insight and lifelong learning.
3. FROM SPECIALISATION TO CONTEXTUALISATION Promoting interdisciplinary exchange of theory, methods and applications serves to benefit students’ insights and stimulates new interests. Mixing students into teams of different academic, cultural and skills backgrounds could offer unexpected crossovers and encourage interdisciplinary thinking. In this way, students could learn to see beyond the limits of their own field and learn how to work in teams. 4. FROM SCIENCE TO SOCIETY LXD is about creating a space where learning outcomes can contribute to making societal impact. Why do we simulate abstract exercises when there are enough real challenges to be tackled? For example, as part of the development of a project, students could be asked develop a start-up with the main goal being helping local communities, using crowdfunding as a tool to raise awareness. In this way, students share their work and leverage the potential of their networks for quality feedback.
timeshighereducation.com/features/ what-will-universities-look-like-in-2030future-perfect [Accessed 19 Apr. 2017].
Sjoerd Louwaars is the founder of Centre for Innovation's Changemakers Lab. He runs the Innovation, Co-creation and Global Impact Minor as well as the Venture Academy, a start-up programme for students.
Learning Experience Design
Shifting the Starting Point
Ulrich Mans
Symbolically, this move away from research stands for a radically different way of doing things. In concrete terms, it is much more incremental. When applied, d-search trajectories mean that the university’s role becomes much more a facilitating one, aimed at stimulating innovation at the edges of its core business of fundamental research and teaching. In other words, we place the innovative process centre stage, driven by transdisciplinary teams from academia and elsewhere. This approach follows some of the thinking that has shaped innovation at universities elsewhere in the world.
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- TREND 1 -
Caring about someone or something is what makes us human. Placing yourself in someone else’s position and being able to understand their situation, reasoning or passion is an important human ability that allows us to avoid conflict and build sustainable, civilised environments. Yet empathy doesn’t always automatically emerge when we most need it. How can we foster empathy in difficult or conflict situations and how can new media technologies contribute to our ability to understand each other?
Virtual Empathy
Virtual Empathy
CAN MIXED MEDIA MAKE US MORE EMPATHIC TOWARDS THE REAL WORLD AROUND US?
VIR TUAL EMPA THY
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connected than ever before, yet there is a growing feeling of disconnection and intolerance in society (The Guardian, 2017). The more people perceive each other as different, because of their background, culture, religion or moral codes, the less likely they will understand or accept someone else’s perspective or behaviour. Efforts made to improve people’s empathy towards each other could help to fight the polarisation of society and the rise of extremism.
for society. According to Chris Milk, founder and CEO of virtual reality company Within, VR has the ability to become the ‘ultimate empathy machine’ as it allows a person to be in someone else’s shoes. This kind of empathy – virtual empathy – is not limited to physical distances. Not everyone is convinced of the power of virtual empathy through VR, for example Professor of Psychology at Yale University Paul Bloom (inset). Source: Elliott, L. (2017). Rising inequality threatens world economy, says WEF. The Guardian. [online] Available at: https://
Virtual reality and augmented reality (VR, AR) offer promising opportunities not only for education and research, but also
www.theguardian.com/business/2017/ jan/11/inequality-world-economy-wefbrexit-donald-trump-world-economicforum-risk-report [Accessed 12 Jan. 2017].
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: QUESTIONS FROM A SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
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How can new technologies such as virtual and augmented reality foster empathy and contribute to our ability to understand each other?
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How do VR and AR storytellers prioritise which stories need to be told so that virtual empathy is created in an unbiased way?
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How can we avoid the misuse of virtual empathy to avoid the ‘glamourising’ of poverty and despair?
“VR doesn’t actually help you appreciate what it’s like to be a refugee, homeless or disabled. In fact, it can be dangerously misleading. The problem is that these experiences aren’t fundamentally about the immediate physical environments. The awfulness of the refugee experience isn’t about the sights and sounds of a refugee camp; it has more to do with the fear and anxiety of having to escape your country and relocate yourself in a strange land. Homeless people are often physically ill, sometimes mentally ill, with real anxieties about their future. You can’t tap into that feeling by putting a helmet on your head.”
Paul Bloom Bloom, P. (2017). It’s Ridiculous to Use Virtual Reality to Empathize With Refugees. The Atlantic. [online] Available at: https://www. theatlantic.com/technology/ archive/2017/02/virtual-reality-wontmake-you-moreempathetic/515511/
Virtual Empathy
Virtual Empathy
The world is more
V IRT UA L EM PAT HY: A DI V IDED O P INI O N
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• Virtual reality
• Augmented reality
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Google graph showing interest in virtual and augmented reality over time (recreated) Numbers represent Google search interest relative to the highest point on the chart (peak = 100) over the last five years, worldwide. Sources: Google Trends. (2017) Search terms: virtual reality and augmented reality. [online] Available at: https://trends.google.com [Accessed on 8 Mar. 2017].
NEW TECHNOLOGIES The rise of virtual and augmented reality VIRTUAL REALITY (VR) is becoming an increasingly popular technology in the entertainment, education, humanitarian and healthcare sectors. By wearing a VR headset, users are fully surrounded by a virtual, mixed or 360º video environment and immersed in a new world. As VR goggles track the movement of the user, they can look around and in some cases, interact with their perceived environment.
AUGMENTED REALITY (AR) trended briefly in 2012, but interest in this technology, which combines the real world with the virtual, spiked in 2016, when the technology became more advanced. As with VR, AR requires the user to wear a headset in the form of see-through glasses (such as Microsoft HoloLens). While the real world is visible, reality is enriched with computer-generated information to create a unique and optimised experience.
Recent tools for VR that have entered the market, showing that big players are taking this trend seriously, are Microsoft HoloLens, Oculus Rift (Facebook) and The Vive (Valve). Meanwhile, low-budget Google Cardboard has made VR more accessible to the wider public.
Examples of AR are enhanced tours on archaeological sites, in which the original buildings are projected on the places where only ruins are left, or the popular Pokémon Go game that became a worldwide craze in 2016.
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Beerend Hierck & Thomas Hurkxkens
LEARNING IN MIXED REALITY WITH MIXED REALITY WE CAN TAP INTO THE INTRINSIC MOTIVATION OF STUDENTS TO LEARN, UNDERSTAND AND REMEMBER
Beerend Hierck is a teacher and scientist at the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC), and
T
he development of science and technology has a pivotal role in driving societal change. This is especially true in digital education, with types of e-learning in the form of Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs) seeing widespread adoption. More recently, traditional media is being supplemented with a wide variety of novel forms such as virtual reality and augmented reality that offer potential to engage students and trigger new forms of virtual empathy. It is this last trend that has captured the imagination of the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC) and the Centre for Innovation (CFI) of Leiden University. Together they are now working to develop an innovative medical app that will allow students to learn in ‘mixed reality’.
specialises in Developmental Biology and Histology. He is the former chair of the Leiden Teachers’ Academy.
Thomas Hurkxkens is a film-maker and founder of The New
Empathy is the ability to understand what another human being is experiencing and having the capacity to place yourself in another person’s position. This is especially relevant for medical education where students must learn to place themselves in the position of staff (doctors and surgeons), but also patients. When working on new educational tools for (medical) education the focus is therefore on translating abstract theories to real human experiences. One way to do this is by introducing new technologies that can help to increase this form of ‘virtual empathy’ by allowing students to understand the relationships between realworld body movements and virtual models. A new medical app developed by the LUMC and CFI revolves around the new technological device HoloLens® developed by Microsoft.
Media Lab at the Centre for Innovation. He specialises in storytelling for education.
As a first experiment, the CFI/ LUMC HoloLens app will be used to teach (bio) medical students about the anatomy of their own ankle: a hologram of an anatomical model reacts to students’ movement by copying their movement into the virtual model. Using the HoloLens in this way, it contributes to making education more adaptive and personalised. In the technical sense, students can study the simulations in their preferred way due to the holographic 3D model projected in the room. Didactically, the HoloLens adds an effective component to the study of abstract models, by giving students ownership of their learning experience. Dr Beerend Hierck of the LUMC and of the Leiden Teachers’ Academy will study the effects and outcomes of this type of 3D learning. The
Didactically, the HoloLens adds an effective component to the study of abstract models, by giving students ownership of their learning experience.
first results are promising: “When I introduced the HoloLens to my students, they literally jumped over the table to give themselves the best view on the hologram of the ankle. They are embracing this new technology because it gives them the ability to ‘own’ the hologram; they control the movement.” For Hierck this is crucial for any experiment: “a teacher once said that ‘you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink no more than you can lead a student to knowledge and make him think’. This, for me is the heart of education. With mixed reality we can tap into the intrinsic motivation of students to learn, understand and remember.” Thomas Hurkxkens from CFI will ensure that the app will be part of a broader learning scenario based on a real-life case. “By combining creatives such as 3D-artists, animators, virtual reality specialists and film-makers we seek to co-create new media products with our teachers. We think these experiments will provide tremendous input into educational research.”
The HoloLens experiment is a partnership between the Centre for Innovation’s New Media Lab, LUMC’s department of Anatomy and Embryology and the Centre for Innovation of Medical Education at the LUMC. The New Media Lab brings together teachers and creative professionals to explore new technologies, allowing students to engage with academic education through purposeful projects that unite storytelling with innovative visual techniques.
Virtual Empathy
Virtual Empathy
F E AT U R E
The Microsoft HoloLens is a headset which can project holographic models on the existing environment, creating a so-called ‘augmented reality’ (also referred to as ‘mixed reality’). By projecting objects, figures etc. on reality, users can walk around and study the hologram from different angles and perspectives. One of the unique capabilities of the HoloLens is the ability for users to interact with the holograms using hand gestures and word commands.
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VIRTUAL REALITY OPPORTUNITIES IN THE EDUCATIONAL SECTOR
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VR could be used as a practical application to shape learning experiences that are more true to life, limiting the distance between the student and their subject matter. Virtual empathy through VR could offer new research topics aimed at tackling social challenges, such as exploring topics like discrimination.
- CASE STUDY -
U S I N G VI RTUAL REALIT Y TO U N D E R S TA N D AU T ISM It can be difficult to understand what it is like to have a medical condition and how it affects the patient and their family and friends. The Autism TMI Virtual Reality Experience, created by UK charity The National Autistic Society, offers the possibility to see the world through
the eyes of a person with autism. The video below shows that being unable to filter incoming information from the environment, ‘can make the outside world feel like a terrifying place’. A VR experience like this could help parents, other caregivers and members of the public to change their perspectives and about a person with autism.
Watch the video on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgDR_gYk_a8 Source: The National Autistic Society. (2016). Autism TMI Virtual Reality Experience [video] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgDR_gYk_a8 [Accessed 28. 11. 2016].
Virtual Empathy
Virtual Empathy
IMPACT ON RESEARCH & EDUCATION:
FEAT URE
Shawnee Baughman & Jeremy Bailenson
ENCOURAGING EMPATHY VIA VIRTUAL INTERACTIONS VIRTUAL REALITY ALLOWS US TO EXPERIENCE EMPATHY ON A DEEPER LEVEL.
‘B
reaking the fourth wall’ in television or film describes the situation in which the invisible wall between actor and audience is breached; an actor speaks to her audience directly, thereby inviting them into her world. Now, for the first time in history, there exists a space in media beyond the fourth wall. Virtual reality (VR) allows you to become the actor in a scene, and that difference makes for promising advancements in the field of empathy. To ‘break’ the fourth wall in film or television, an actor need only look to her audience or camera and address them directly. This tactic has been used by eccentric film-makers and bold actors alike to convey an extra sense of understanding or empathy with their audience – a nod that says: ‘I’m not just a character, I’m also a human and I want you to know that what I’m portraying is real and important.’
stepping into the body of another person, or into an impossible situation, changes your real-life behaviour
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holds a Bachelor’s in Communication and a Master’s in Media Studies from Stanford University. She conducted several studies in the Virtual Human Interaction Lab as a student researcher prior to graduating in 2014 and becoming the manager of the Lab itself. Since 2014 she has contributed to dozens of research projects at VHIL in the fields of empathy, prosocial behaviour and environmental behaviour. For more information about the research at VHIL, see vhil.stanford.edu.
Jeremy Bailenson is founding director of Stanford University’s Virtual Human Interaction Lab, Thomas More Storke Professor in the Department of Communication, a Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Faculty Director of Stanford’s Digital Learning Forum, and a Faculty Leader at Stanford’s Center for Longevity.
For the first time in history there has become a new space in media, beyond the fourth wall; and it has come at the onset of the virtual reality revolution. Imagine that instead of an actor speaking to you in a way that imaginatively invites you into the storyline, you could actually become that actor. In VR, the user is no longer an audience member, but a participant. Thus, in giving humans the ability to embody those they are learning about, VR allows us to experience empathy on a deeper level. There have been several VR researchers who have explored this concept for years, even before tech industry giants deemed the technology worthy of investment. At the Virtual Human Interaction Lab at Stanford University, researchers have conducted studies in which the user actually becomes someone else in VR. Now, not every experience has yielded some magical empathetic result. However, the effects of these experiences are incredibly thought-provoking, especially when comparing results between VR and traditional media. Professor Bailenson, of Stanford’s VHIL, has found that stepping into the body of another person, or into an impossible situation, changes your real-life behaviour differently
Virtual Empathy
Virtual Empathy
Shawnee Baughman
This technique can be seen across the international stage, in Monty Python movies as well as in sitcoms like The Office, where breaking the wall brings both empathetic and comedic value. We believe that breaking this wall is particularly effective at adding the extra human element to any portrayal, and now it has become a step in evolving the human empathetic experience entirely.
than that of traditional perspectivetaking (like watching movies.) For example, when you cut down a tree in VR, you use less paper in real life afterward than you would if you had only seen it on video or read about it in a story. Similarly, when you put on a VR headset and see yourself as you would look 30 years from now, you think about your future in a way that allows you to treat yourself and others better (for example, you put more money in your retirement fund). These are not just the ideas of well-meaning academics; these are the results of rigorous research. While there’s still a long way to go in discovering the long-term implications of virtual reality, Bailenson’s research, along with the research of other VR labs across the world, yields promising results for the future of mankind. Humans have been breaking the fourth wall for decades, but with VR, we can now step over that wall and into endless possibilities.
RECOMMENDED READING: • Blascovich, J., Bailenson, J.N. (2011). Infinite reality: Avatars, eternal life, new worlds, and the dawn of the virtual revolution. New York: William Morrow • Ahn, S.J., Bailenson, J.N., & Park, D. (2014). Short- and long-
For the first time in history there has become a new space in media, beyond the fourth wall; and it has come at the onset of the virtual reality revolution
term effects of embodied experiences in immersive virtual environments on environmental locus of control and behavior. Computers in Human Behavior, 39, 235-245. • Ersner-Hershfield, H., Bailenson, J.N., & Carstensen, L.L. (2008). Feeling more connected to your future self: Using immersive virtual reality to increase retirement saving. Poster presented at the Association for Psychological Science Annual Convention, Chicago, IL. • Gehlbach, H., Marietta, G., King, A., Karutz, C., Bailenson, J.N. & Dede, C. (2015). Many Ways to Walk a Mile in Another’s Moccasins: Type of Social Perspective Taking and its effect on Negotiation Outcomes. Computers in Human Behavior, 52, 523-532. • Rosenberg, R.S., Baughman, S.L., Bailenson, J.N. (2013). Virtual Superheroes: Using Superpowers in Virtual Reality to Encourage Prosocial Behavior. PLOS One., 8 (1), 1-9.
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23 Virtual Empathy
Virtual Empathy
I NTERV IE W
Dries Verhoeven
GUILTY LANDSCAPES: USING NEW MEDIA TO RAISE AWARENESS AND ENCOURAGE EMPATHY I WANT VIEWERS TO RECONSIDER THEIR OWN BEHAVIOUR AND PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORLD
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rtist Dries Verhoeven wants his audience to think twice about their privileged situation. His 2016 exhibition Guilty Landscapes invited the public to watch videos of people in difficult situations: a man working in a strip club, a bombed city in Syria or a worker in a sweatshop who sleeps on the factory floor. What makes this exhibition so special is that the people in the videos have been filmed as if they are watching the viewer: the voyeur becomes the subject. Which emotions does Verhoeven want his audience to feel when they come across his art? “I’m looking for doubt – I want viewers to reconsider their own behaviour and perspective of the world. The Guilty Landscapes Exhibition asks: how do we experience all these images that are presented to us, for example the horrible pictures we see on the news? Do we feel like we have any influence on these geopolitical developments? Is there some kind of connection between us and the images we see, or are we simply receivers of news? My aim is to increase the intensity of these type of images. Dries Verhoeven photo credit: Jeva Griskjane
I put the viewer in a fragile position, because the people in my exhibition are watching them. When
someone is aware of the fact that you are looking at them, you are brought to the same level. By doing so I hope to build a more equal relationship between the viewer and the people on screen.” Are you critical of today’s media? “Not necessarily, but I do want to expand the way we think about the media. Do we trust them to create a faithful image that reflects reality? I would like to broaden existing viewpoints and make viewers doubt their inherent ideas, challenge their usual way of thinking. Some people experience the digital public space as something that is more trustworthy than someone they might talk to in the street. But who is writing the news agenda? Take a request for aid – a call for humanitarian action via Facebook, or a homeless person down the road who needs help. It is likely that people are more suspicious towards the man in the street than to the online request. Is it because we value institutionalised humanitarian aid broadcasts on a public network more, or do we feel ‘watched’ by our Facebook friends to do the right thing?”
feel better when they respond according to the perceived norm. Sometimes it has little to do with wanting to help others. When you are confronted with images of refugee streams or drowning people in the Mediterranean, you can show your empathy by liking or posting about it. Your friends might think you are an empathic person, but it doesn’t improve the lives of the people who are affected. If you give a homeless person one Euro, then at least you’ve given something to someone in need. For some people, giving a ‘thumbs up’ is an emotional alternative for putting money in the hat. The medium you choose to express your opinions reflects how you want to portray yourself. The artist’s role in this is that we can make you more aware of the platforms you’re using and the effect this has on yourself and others.”
Facebook is a place where people show empathy triggered by their conscience; they value how they come across to others
Social media has made it very easy to express opinions; have we become lazy empathisers? “In Western Europe, Facebook is a place where people show empathy triggered by their conscience; they value how they come across to others and it makes them
photo credit: Guilty Landscapes, episode III, Homs, 2016. Willem Popelier
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- TREND 2 -
You only have to look at stories such as Frankenstein, Superman and X-Men to realise that the ability to give humans extraordinary power has captured people’s imagination for many years. New developments in the fields of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science (NBIC) are now paving the way to make human enhancements possible. The topic remains controversial and aside from concerns about safety, there are ethical and philosophical questions that need to be asked, such as: what does it mean to be human?
Human Enhancement
Human Enhancement
HUMAN ENHANCEMENT AND ETHICS: HOW FAR SHOULD WE GO?
HU MAN EN HANCE MENT
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a broad term used to describe the practice of temporarily or permanently improving humans via natural or artificial means. Contemporary biotechnological practices that involve manipulation of living beings present a new challenge to the traditional notions of nature and the human body. So what is the value of human enhancement and what are its risks? Human enhancement techniques, such as performance enhancing drugs, prosthetics, robotics and neurotechnology, can be used for treating or eradicating illnesses or genetic defects. Reducing the risks of serious diseases sounds like a worthy cause, but what about altering the brain of healthy humans to
improve their cognitive ability to process information? Genetic modification, tissue engineering and cloning present new scientific opportunities according to some, but are dangerous and ethically unsound according to opponents. Where do we set the limit? To become stronger, think and learn faster, remember more and, in the end, become ‘better’ versions of ourselves seems like a desirable prospect. However, it is not inconceivable that only the privileged would be able to take advantage of these developments. There is a worry that enhancing a select few will intensify inequality – or even create a ‘humanity plus’ race. This begs the question: do we really want to live in a superhuman world?
FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
“Both advocates for and opponents of human enhancement spin a number of possible scenarios. Some talk about what might be called ‘humanity plus’ – people who are still recognisably human, but much smarter, stronger and healthier. Others speak of ‘post-humanity,’ and predict that dramatic advances in genetic engineering and machine technology may ultimately allow people to become conscious machines – not recognisably human, at least on the outside.”
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NEW TECHNOLOGIES Genome editing with the CRISPR-Cas9 method CRISPR, short for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats, is a new genome editing technique that allows scientists to edit genes both in embryos and adults.
recombination – changing or eliminating parts of (human) DNA – enables us the possibility to modify the genetic characteristics of people.
The technique is based on a natural form of genetical manipulation that happens in the body is when it tries to fight viruses.
By using it, we can eliminate diseases, but also change personal characteristics without leaving any trace. CRISPR makes genetical manipulation more accurate, relatively easy and a lot cheaper than before.
This phenomenon was discovered decades ago, but CRISPR is a new technique that can be implemented by human intervention. This form of DNA
From designer babies to curing diseases like Alzheimers and cancer, the CRISPR technique opens up a whole new world of opportunities.
The McGovern Institute for Brain Research at MIT have created an animation that illustrates genome editing with CRISPR:
QUESTIONS FROM A SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
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David Masci
What does it mean to be human in this digital age?
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To what extent should we use medical advancements to enhance our abilities or reduce imperfections?
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What are the implications of trying to create ‘super humans’? Which ethical questions should be asked?
Masci, D. (2016). Human Enhancement: The Scientific and Ethical Dimensions of Striving for Perfection. Pew Research Center. [online] Available at: http://
Watch the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pp17E4E-O8
www.pewinternet.org/essay/humanenhancement-the-scientific-and-
Source: McGovern Institute for Brain Research at MIT (2014). Genome Editing with CRISPR-Cas9. [video]
ethical-dimensions-of-striving-for-
Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pp17E4E-O8 [Accessed 4 Mar. 2017].
perfection/
Human Enhancement
Human Enhancement
Human enhancement is
W HER E W I L L HUM A N ENHA NC EM E NT TA K E US?
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HUMAN ENHANCEMENT COULD CHANGE THE WAY WE LEARN AND TEACH.
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Enhanced humans whose cognitive or physical abilities have been increased could experience learning advantages over those who have not been equipped with such enhancements. Students using emerging technologies should be encouraged to ask ethical questions about these developments alongside their research.
- CASE STUDY -
M OVING BY T HE P OWE R O F THOU GHT Several years ago, Ian Burkhart became paralysed after an accident that resulted in the permanent loss of feeling in his hands and legs. By targeting the motor area in the brain, researchers at The Ohio State University and Battelle Memorial Institute were able to look at Burkhart’s neurological activity during his active
thought of specific hand movements. By recording the signals, they were able to decipher the various movements and use computer software to translate this into an algorithm. When these computer signals were then connected to the muscles, Burkhart was able to move his hand and pick up objects by using his own thoughts.
Watch the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60fAjaRfwnU Source: Nature video (2016). The nerve bypass: how to move a paralysed hand. [video] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=60fAjaRfwnU [Accessed 7 Mar. 2017].
FEAT URE
Robert Zwijnenberg
NATURA ARTIS MAGISTRA? The necessity of art in the public debate on human enhancement WITHIN THE LIFE SCIENCES THE ETHICAL DEBATE ON WHAT IT IS TO BE HUMAN HAS PRACTICALLY DISAPPEARED
T
he current ethical debate on human enhancement is above all a debate about the essence of what it is to be human and about human dignity. However, there is no consensus as to what terms like ‘human dignity’ and ‘human essence’ actually mean, which has led the debate into deadlock. What we now witness, under pressure of developments around CRIPSR, is that within the life sciences the ethical debate has practically disappeared and been replaced by a strict focus on risk assessment and safety issues.
Human Enhancement
Human Enhancement
IMPACT ON RESEARCH & EDUCATION:
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is full professor Art and Science Interactions at Leiden University, Faculty of Humanities. His research and teaching focus are on the role of contemporary art in the academic and public debates on the ethical, political, aesthetic and societal implications of the life sciences, with a focus on human enhancement technologies.
companies are attempting to define the legal and ethical playing field for this new technology before any government regulation is introduced
Two American universities are also in dispute over the issue of who actually holds the patent on CRISPR, and thus has a right to the financial returns on industrial developments (Jacob and Sherkow, 2016). This rapid, unregulated commercialisation of CRISPR
Ethical considerations cannot now be isolated from patient safety and risk assessment issues has fortunately raised concern in the field of life sciences, and there have been many calls for regulation at international level. Under pressure from unregulated commercialisation, this mainly takes the form of concern for patient safety and risk assessment. The final declaration from the International Summit on Gene Editing (Washington, December 2015) states, for example, that germline editing can be permitted only once ‘relevant safety and efficacy issues have been resolved, based on appropriate understanding and balancing of risks, potential benefits, and alternatives.’ (National Academies, 2015) However, in this perfectly justified call for strict safety regulations (needed to curb unregulated commercialisation), ethical considerations have been downgraded to an outcome of risk assessment. Ethical considerations cannot now be isolated from patient safety and risk assessment issues. The same applies to the concepts of human dignity and human essence, and
Human Enhancement
Human Enhancement
Robert Zwijnenberg
CRISPR/cas9 has enabled precise ‘editing’ of faulty genes, including in the germline. This opens up the possibility of curing single gene disorders, but it also raises the question of whether the technique will lead to designer babies and human germline gene editing, which would constitute an irreversible intervention in the future of mankind. Soon after the first jubilant scientific reports about the medical potential of CRISPR/ cas9 appeared in early 2015, a range of companies announced they would be investing millions in CRISPR applications. They included Editas Medicine (which plans to cure blindness, and expects to be testing on humans in 2017) and Bayer (which is developing genetic therapy to cure chronic diseases such as haemophilia). These companies are attempting to define the legal and ethical playing field for this new technology before any government regulation is introduced. In May 2016, researchers at Guangzhou Medical University published a paper on their own (unsuccessful) gene editing experiments on human embryos (Kang et al, 2016). This is widely regarded as an attempt by China to position itself at the head of CRISPR developments.
CRISPR requires a radical rethinking of our traditional notions of nature, the human body and the concept of the human this has robbed them of their potentially critical function as an ethical benchmark. Once patient safety and benefits have been secured, an application is regarded almost by definition as ethical, and human dignity is held to have been respected. The debate predominant in the life sciences no longer distinguishes between risk assessment and ethical assessment. No true ethical debate
on CRISPR can take place solely within the field of life sciences. Any such debate must take as its point of departure neither safety issues nor traditional concepts like human dignity and human essence. In its practical application and at a philosophical and ethical level, CRISPR requires a radical rethinking of our traditional notions of nature, the human body and the concept of the human. We
will need all the cultural forces at our disposal to address them. Now that the current ethical debate has ended up in deadlock, art may offer a solution. Any existential quest of this kind is impossible without a deep understanding of the ambiguities and complexity we need to consider. The function of art is precisely to enact these ambiguities and this complexity.
Sources: Kang, X., He, W., Huang, Y. et al. J Assist Reprod Genet (2016) 33: 581. doi:10.1007/s10815-016-0710-8 http://link. springer.com/article/10.1007 /s10815-016-0710-8 Jacob S. Sherkow, J.S., Nature 532, 172–173 (14 April 2016) doi:10.1038/532172a http://www.nature.com/news/crisprpursuit-of-profit-poisons-collaboration-1.19717 The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. ‘On Human Gene Editing: International Summit Statement’ (2015). http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem. aspx?recordid=12032015a
RECOMMENDED READING: • Zwijnenberg, R. (2014). Biotechnology, Human Dignity and the Importance of Art. Ripensare la ‘natura’ / Rethinking ‘Nature’ – 1. Questioni aperte/Burning Issues, pp.131-148.
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- TREND 3 -
33 Digital Life
Digital Life
HOW WILL TECHNOLOGY AND DIGITAL DATA INFLUENCE SOCIETY? Digital and online tools have increasingly become part of our daily lives: internet usage worldwide grew by more than 70% in the last five years and by the end of 2016, 47% of the world population had access to the internet (Internetlivestats.com, 2017; ITU, 2017). We’ve also become more multi-platform: while desktop usage didn’t increase much in 2016, time spent on digital devices such as smartphones and smartwatches increased considerably and overtook desktop usage for the first time. In a digital world where one can have access to almost anything with the click of a button, how will new technologies continue to affect our lives?
DIGI TAL LIFE
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We have created a second identity: a digital identity, that could be tracked, reviewed and changed long after our ‘real’ identity has moved on in time. How does this change our perception of the ‘self’ as others – databases,
Only by approaching these questions head-on will we be able to make sense – and use – of the opportunities and challenges that this new reality brings us. By encouraging innovation and exploration, and asking honest questions about ethical concerns and responsibilities, digital advancements could be used to help solve humanity’s most arduous challenges: from reducing poverty to humanitarian response.
Sources used on previous page: Internetlivestats.com. (2017). Number of Internet Users (2016) - Internet Live Stats. [online] Available at: http://www.internetlivestats.com/ internet-users/ [Accessed 9 Mar. 2017]. International Telecommunication Union (ITU) (2017). ICT Facts and Figures 2016. [online] Geneva: International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Available at: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ ICTFactsFigures2016.pdf [Accessed 9 Mar. 2017].
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: QUESTIONS FROM A SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
– How can we protect and manage our growing digital identity? – What are the ethical concerns and risks of data collection? – How can we responsibly share big data and should there be any restrictions?
“Digital technology does not stand on its own. It is crucial that digital technology is linked to the needs of people and societies. On the other hand, people and societies need to be prepared for upcoming technological innovations. To link society and technology, science needs to become integrated with knowledge about psychological, cultural, political and socio-economic factors. Without this connection, technology will be used insufficiently and we will not reach the full potential of new innovations, and this will lead to many unnecessary or severe negative (side) effects.”
Association of universities (VSNU) The Netherlands
90%
Desktop 48,7%
80% 70% 60% 50% Percentage of usage
life easier for many: we have the ability to complete daily activities online, like communicating or buying products. New innovative digital tools also offer possibilities to improve our education, healthcare, security and infrastructure, yet at the same time they open up new dilemmas about data responsibility and security.
governments, and companies – own this data? In the long term, what does this mean for commerce, public policy or education, and, most importantly, for ourselves?
T HE DIG I TA L SO C IET Y
Digital tools have made
• Mobile & Tablet (51,3%)
40% 30%
Mobile & Tablet 51,3%
20% 10% 0% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: StatCounter Global Stats. (2016). Press Releases | StatCounter Global Stats. [online] Available at: http://gs.statcounter. com/press/mobile-and-tablet-internet-usageexceeds-desktop-for-first-time-worldwide [Accessed 9 Mar. 2017].
NEW TECHNOLOGIES Big data and artificial intelligence N
owadays, every person is a producer of digital data, by using their mobile phones for social media to passing traffic control. Large streams of data are also created by sensors and computers, which has led to an exponential growth in the amount of data that is being collected and used in industries like telecommunications, banking, healthcare, finance and manufacturing (Belfiore, 2016). The term used for this diverse, rapidly growing data is called Big Data. With such large amounts of data, how can we distil useful insights? For Big Data to be meaningful, data scientists use algorithms to find and process patterns that tell us more about human behaviour and trends. Useful insights can then be applied to predict future situations or analysed further using artificial intelligence (AI). Machine learning, a ‘subset
of AI’ is a development where machines can learn for themselves without having been programmed to follow procedures (Marr, 2016). The next step is deep learning, a more complex form of machine learning that allows for more human-like decision-making such as voice recognition and self-driving cars (Reese, 2017). Although Big Data has provided new opportunities, attention should also be paid to using this resource in an ethical way. Sharing data and insights responsibly is paramount to secure individual or demographic privacy. One solution for data protection would be not to share sensitive data itself, but to share the question in the form of algorithms to the party who ‘owns’ the data. By taking ethical concerns into account, organisations and governments can prepare themselves for an even more data-rich future.
Vsnu.nl. (2016). Digitale Samenleving (Digital Society,
Sources: Belfiore, M. (2016). How 10 industries are using big data to win big. IBM. [online] https://www.ibm.com/blogs/
translated). [online] Available at:
watson/2016/07/10-industries-using-big-data-win-big/ [Accessed 4 May 2017]; Marr, B. (2016). What Is The Difference Between
http://vsnu.nl/jaaroverzicht2016/
Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning? Forbes. [online] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/12/06/what-is-the-
digitale-samenleving.html
difference-between-artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning/#524ba1f2742b [Accessed 4 May 2017]
[Accessed 19 Apr. 2017].
Reese, H. (2017). Understanding the differences between AI, machine learning, and deep learning. TechRepublic. [online] http://www. techrepublic.com/article/understanding-the-differences-between-ai-machine-learning-and-deep-learning/ [Accessed 4 May 2017]
Digital Life
Digital Life
• Desktop (48,7%)
Internet Usage Worldwide (recreated). 100%
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Bibi van den Berg IMPACT ON RESEARCH & EDUCATION:
PROTECTING PRIVACY IN A DIGITAL WORLD
PROS AND CONS OF DIGITAL LIFE:
RAISING AWARENESS AND HELPING CITIZENS PROTECT THEIR DATA CAN BE DONE EFFICIENTLY ON A LOCAL LEVEL
Collecting and connecting different types of digital data opens up new perspectives and viewpoints for researchers and their students.
wo robots perform professor Bibi van den Berg’s household chores. While that may be convenient, Van den Berg, a philosopher of technology and associate professor of eLaw at Leiden University, is concerned about the technological and personal data risks that come with the digital age. These smart tools can not only do limited chores, but their ability to give them remote access opens up a whole new dimension. Will Van den Berg’s vacuum cleaner put her privacy at risk?
– Pros:
New research fields could emerge as both time and space are no longer practical boundaries. Adaptive technologies make it possible to deliver content that matches an individual student’s learning needs.
Cons: The high dependency on digital systems. he potential for biased data gathering as T algorithms and queries could be flawed. rustworthiness of sources: there’s T a need for fact checking against the rise of fake news.
T
“My robots are not connected to the internet. Of course this could be useful for updates or repairs, but I’d be concerned about what would happen if we all started doing this, as it could put people’s privacy at risk. Producers of these products might not take the time to find solutions for these potential security risks. Our household tools used to be functional and we didn’t have to connect them to the internet. So why should we do it now? Advocates will say that life will
become much easier when we do it, but by opening the digital doors in your house you will pay for it with your personal data.” What could happen when all our personal data is shared? “Based on the data you are sharing, you could be categorised and connected to a certain profile that will not do justice to the versatility of our real identities. We did an experiment with high-school students where they were asked to search for information about depression on the internet. After a while, we asked them to visit their Facebook page. Their timelines were filled with advertisements of self-help groups for depression. Facebook seemed
There are companies that have made tracking people on the internet their business
Digital Life
Digital Life
INT ERVIEW
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Why can’t governments forbid Google from sharing information with other companies like Facebook? “It’s not just Google and Facebook. There are companies that have made tracking people on the internet their business. They sell this data to commercial companies, but these ‘data brokers’ are also hired by the US government. By law, the government is forbidden from creating profiles of their citizens, but they are allowed to hire companies that can do it for them. This information could be used to predict voting behaviour or detect racial tensions. Using Big Data to improve policies and align them with citizens’ needs sounds OK, but it isn’t. There is an assumption that data is ‘objective’, but the interpretation of data will always remain a biased process. If a computer makes a wrong judgement based on a flawed algorithm, the mistake cannot be easily located and this can get a person into trouble. This happened, for instance, in the US with artist Hasan Elahi. His name came up when the FBI was searching for possible terrorists. Although they found out that Elahi wasn’t the potential threat they had assumed he was, they requested that he continue to inform them about his whereabouts. Elahi thus took the decision to share online literally everything he was doing.” Is this example a very ‘American story’? Do the Dutch police also use digital data for profiling? “Here, the problem is not as big as in the US. We are more careful, but the Dutch police and intelligence agencies have different rules when it comes to phone tapping. We have to wonder what will happen next. We have to protect national security, but the police and intelligence agencies have to respect civil rights and privacy as well. The government should not intervene in the lives of citizens for no particular reason. It is complex to do justice to both; we have to come up with smart solutions.”
- CASE STUDY In your view, what would be a smart solution? “By improving the intelligence of technology. An example would be surveillance cameras with sensors that turn themselves on when people start screaming or act in a certain way. For instance, when they start running or fighting.” You are part of the Cyber Security Council that advises the Dutch government. What does the Council advise on? “We advise the government on many different topics, including on raising awareness. I notice that education is a slow process because you can’t reach everyone, not everyone is still in school. Local governments could raise citizens’ cybersecurity awareness so that cybersecurity risks for them would decrease. Instead of doing it nationwide, local initiatives will help to reach more people. There should be an increase in laws on an international level, but raising awareness and helping citizens protect their data can be done efficiently on a local level in society.”
If a computer makes a wrong judgement based on a flawed algorithm, the mistake cannot be easily located and this can get a person into trouble.
L I V ING U N DER CO NSTAN T SURV EIL L A N C E In 2002, American artist Hasan Elahi was accidentally added to the US government’s watch list, leading to an investigation by the FBI. Elahi was cleared of all suspicions, but was advised to keep the FBI informed of his whereabouts all the same. This resulted in an open-ended art project, with Elahi posting photos of his minute-by-minute life online, questioning the consequences of living under constant surveillance. In 2011 Elahi gave a presentation at TED about his artwork, which you can watch on their website: http://www.ted.com/speakers/hasan_elahi Source: TED. (2011). FBI, here I am! [video] Available at: www.ted.com/talks/hasan_elahi [Accessed 28 Nov. 2016].
Digital Life
Digital Life
to think that these youngsters were depressed themselves; it had actually labelled them. This is something that concerns me. The next step could be an insurance company getting this information from Google or Facebook.”
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I NTERV IE W
Liesbet van Zoonen THE BOLD CITY: SHAPING SOCIETY WITH BIG DATA THE IDEA THAT WE CAN SHAPE OUR SOCIETY WITH BIG DATA IS GROWING
H
ow do surveillance cameras make us feel: safer or spied on? If your local council sends you an email about renewing your driver’s licence, is this considered good service or infringement of privacy? Liesbet van Zoonen is professor of sociology at the Erasmus University and director of the Centre for BOLD Cities, a joint initiative of the Erasmus University, TU Delft and Leiden University. She and fellow researchers at the Centre look at how users of cities (from residents to tourists) can become more data literate and engage better with the data that is available.
people oppose the idea of their medical data being stored in a digital patient file, but they happily post messages on Facebook to say they are lying in bed.
What is a BOLD city? “BOLD stands for Big, Open, Linked Data. A BOLD city is slightly different from a ‘smart city’ which is the more common term to talk about smart public management of infrastructures, such as transport, energy or water. But a city doesn’t only consist of infrastructure, and with BOLD cities you recognise that there is much more going on, also nongovernmental, especially through city users’ smartphones. We have access to so many more types of data and we can also speak about Open [source] or Linked Data. Hence the name BOLD.”
How do you involve citizens in a discussion about data and local developments? “The idea that we can shape our society with Big Data is growing, and policymakers and urban planners are eager to work with data. At the same time, they are concerned about privacy and the need to involve citizens in this process. We tend to forget that the people who live, work or study in a city may not have any idea what is going on. The first step is to raise awareness through a variety of participatory methods. But as a city you also need to make political decisions about issues, such as
The Centre for BOLD cities is located in Rotterdam. Is the city’s municipality making these steps right now? “In Rotterdam, there are a relatively high number of people who don’t have any experience with computers. One of the things we do is take people out on data-walks. We show them, for instance, what is happening when you pass a surveillance camera, which is relatively well-known technology. We also show them which data streams are completely invisible, but crucial, to everyday life in the city: think of air-quality sensors or smart garbage bins. We also discuss questions like who owns the data. Could you get access to it – and would you want to?” How do people respond to their data being collected? “On the one hand, people are concerned about their privacy, but on the other hand they are happy to share it. For example, people oppose the idea of their medical data being stored in a digital patient file, but they happily post messages on Facebook to say they are lying in bed. People fear that the government wants to collect their data, but they don’t have any objections against supermarket discount-cards that track their shopping habits. This is called the Privacy Paradox.”
What about protecting people’s identity and identity management? “People do not think of themselves as series of data: we feel we have been shaped by many different experiences and are more than just numbers. From a data perspective, identity management revolves around the question: How do we shape online identities in a way that they can be used for the actual authentication of a person and how can we secure this data? The Dutch government, for instance, is in the middle of renovating their DigiD system to be able to offer more diverse possibilities for identification. Big businesses are also searching for the most secure and easy way of identification and authentication: from face-to-face encounters to facial recognition based on your smile.” Which groups in our society will encounter the most problems with these new ways of identification? Isn’t there a fear that, for instance, elderly people cannot keep up with these developments? “You will always have a small percentage of people who cannot keep up regardless of the technology, and you need to be sensitive to who they might be. While you might think that the elderly will struggle, young people too may not be very capable, especially in their interaction with the government. In Denmark, the government noticed that adolescents didn’t respond to emails or other forms of digital communication from the government. Why? Because they did not see the point. You can’t assume anything in this field.”
You will always have a small percentage of people who cannot keep up regardless of the technology, and you need to be sensitive to who theY might be.
Digital Life
Digital Life
which groups of citizens do you want to involve, how should you talk to them about changes, and what would be the preferable outcome of these interactions? Our research will provide the resources for such discussions.”
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Cristóbal Cobo
NOW THAT MACHINES CAN LEARN: Can we integrate human and artificial intelligences? WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO KNOW IN A CONTEXT IN WHICH MACHINES ARE DEVELOPING LEARNING CAPABILITIES?
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raditionally the impact of automation has affected the manufacturing sector; however the coming wave of innovation based on artificial intelligence might also bounce higher education. The growing deployment of learning machines can transform what it means to be an expert (associated with ‘white collar’ professionals). These new forms of intelligence will raise challenging questions not only from a technological viewpoint but also from educational, social, economic and ethical perspectives.
Up till now the most valuable resource in any organisation was its human resources. In the context of a ‘knowledge society’ the importance of making a strategic use of people’s knowledge has been repeatedly emphasised. Likewise, from a lifelong learning perspective, ongoing professional learning allows organisations to keep up to date with accelerated change in society. During the last decades universities have benefited from the explosive demand for higher education (the interest that MOOCs have attracted is just one example of this growing demand for up-skilling (WEF, 2014)). However, the recent development of artificial intelligence, enhanced by large volumes of data (Big Data) generated from endless
information sources and the growing data processing platforms can disrupt the ‘knowledge society’ landscape. It is not sci-fi anymore; recent studies warn of the impact that this ‘knowledge machine’ will have on the workforce (Frey and Osborne, 2013). Although still in its infancy, these new ‘knowledge machines’ are developing remarkable capacities (such as voice, text, audio and image recognition). It is still too early to know if jobs will be replaced, but it is increasingly expected that they could generate shifts in the demand for workers. As Kelly suggests, an exponential growth of these artificial intelligence technologies is expected, alongside a dramatic reduction in their cost, with the result that they will become just another commodity like electricity (2016).
Sources: Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, dangers, strategies. OUP Oxford. Benedikt Frey, C. and Osborne, M. (2017). The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs
Cristóbal Cobo
The disruption of digital technologies is transforming a large number of sectors in modern societies (i.e. economy, manufacturing, communications, health, etc., WEF, 2016). But now the changing technological landscape could challenge existing conceptions of what are universities for and what it means ‘to know’.
to computerisation?. [online] Oxford: Martin School, University of Oxford. Available at: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/ publications/view/1314.Jin, S. and Wang, B., 2013. A lexical trunk approach to the teaching of English for science and technology reading. Theory and Practice in Language Studies, 3(7), p.1221. World Economic Forum (2014). Education and skills 2.0:
is the Director of the Center for Research – Ceibal Foundation (Uruguay), and associate researcher at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford (UK). He coordinates research on innovation, open knowledge initiatives and the future of learning. Previously distinguished by
During the last decades the increasing use of digital technologies has transformed the way people access information (i.e. open access, open data), how communities generate new knowledge (i.e. social media, sharing economy), how knowledge is being distributed (i.e. TED talk, MOOCs), how information is being renovated (online platforms such as Twitter, Snapchat or Periscope are built in the obsolescence of information). But lately these disruptions are also affecting how knowledge is applied (i.e. artificial intelligence, collaborative computation).
the British Council of Economic and Social Research (ESRC) and speaker in over 30 countries (+ 4 TEDx). Twitter: @cristobalcobo
new targets and innovative approaches. [online] Cologny/ Geneva: World Economic Forum. Available at: http://www3. weforum.org/docs/GAC/2014/WEF_GAC_EducationSkills_ TargetsInnovativeApproaches_Book_2014.pdf. World Economic Forum (2016). Digital Transformation of Industries Demystifying Digital and Securing $100 Trillion for Society and Industry by 2025. Industry Agenda. [online] World Economic Forum. Available at: http://reports.weforum.org/
The domestication of artificial intelligence (i.e. Alexia, Siri, Cortana or Google Now) is simply an expression of how these ‘knowledge machines’ “the ability of computers to think and reason like the human mind”, (Jin
digital-transformation/wp-content/blogs. dir/94/mp/files/pages/files/wef1601digitaltransformation-1401.pdf
What does it mean ‘to know’ in a context in which machines are developing learning capabilities? What new forms of ‘knowledge currencies’ will be valued in the future? What roles will higher education institutions play in the era of ‘knowledge machines’? How should we address the ethical implications of these new scenarios?
Digital Life
Digital Life
and Wang, 2013). are acquiring growing relevance in daily life.
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‘What do you want to be when you grow up?’ It’s a question many of us will have been asked as a child. How would today’s youngest generation answer this question? With difficulty, according to the World Economic Forum, as the employment landscape is changing and many future job types do not yet exist (2016). Now that the ‘gig economy’ is booming and millennials value creating social impact over money (Deloitte, 2017), what type of businesses could we see in the future and how will this affect the job landscape?
Impact Economy
Impact Economy
THE FUTURE OF WORK IN THE 21ST CENTURY
IM PACT ECO NOMY
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technologies it has never been easier to scale successful business models. Huge investments in companies like Uber, AirBnB and Snapchat are testament to this phenomenon. We see business models where 10 years ago you required access to serious financial capital: to build a hotel chain, you need years of physical development; for a fee-based rental platform like AirBnB, you need much less. As opportunities emerge at the lower end of the investment spectrum, there is a growing pool of entrepreneurs and changemakers who start with impact, and worry about capital later. It starts with a vision and the goal is to pay the bills, not to
become a millionaire. This isn’t only a trend amongst young entrepreneurs, but existing professionals are also turning away from for-profit engagements, embracing a desire to work on societal impact instead. Along with this group, physical spaces have emerged that capture the spirit of co-creation and societal impact, providing attractive environments for a new breed of so-called ‘B-Corps’: Benefit Corporations. They subscribe to principles that ensure social, economic and environmental sustainability, in contrast to for-profit only. Will this trend uproot many of the demand-supply insights that business schools still teach worldwide?
Sources used on previous page: World Economic Forum. (2016). The Future of Jobs and Skills. [online] Available at: http://reports.weforum.org/future-of-jobs-2016/chapter1-the-future-of-jobs-and-skills [Accessed 20 Mar. 2017]. Deloitte. (2017). The Deloitte Millennial Survey 2017. [online] Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/ pages/about-deloitte/articles/millennialsurvey.html [Accessed 20 Mar. 2017].
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: QUESTIONS FROM A SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
– What effect does the ‘gig economy’ have on individuals and communities? – What knowledge and skills should entrepreneurs need to build successful businesses for social impact? – How can we ensure a stable, purposeful future for those who do not have the ability to keep up with the changing job market and skills demands?
“The growing prevalence of independent work could have tangible economic benefits, such as raising labor-force participation, providing opportunities for the unemployed, or even boosting productivity. Yet some key challenges still must be addressed for this shift to be a feasible and satisfying development for workers. Issues such as benefits, income-security measures, and training and credentials offer room for policy makers, as well as innovators and new intermediaries, to provide solutions. Independent workers and traditional jobholders alike will have to become more proactive about managing their careers as digital technologies continue to reshape the world of work.”
McKinsey Global Institute
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Impact Economy
Thanks to new digital
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NEW TECHNOLOGIES Crowdfunding and automation CROWDFUNDING: A FACILITATING TECHNOLOGY In recent years, crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter, Indiegogo and Crowdfunder have become powerful allies for anyone who wants to turn ideas into action. With the right idea and a compelling story, projects can reach thousands of potential supporters and generate funding that would have been difficult to access through grants or loans. The barriers to reaching out to a large audience has never been lower. This is particularly relevant for entrepreneurial initiatives that would in the past have been regarded as not financially viable. With crowdfunding as a facilitating technology, the impact economy has gained prominence all across the world.
AUTOMATION: ARE JOBS UNDER THREAT? Low-skilled labour has felt the effects of automation since the industrial revolution, but now most routine jobs, whether manual or white collar, are under threat of automation. Smart technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning have the ability to replace routine work in many sectors, from banking (predicting financial risks) to medicine (analysis of scans), as they gradually outperform skilled workers by greater accuracy. If the speed at which these types of jobs are replaced is faster than the creation of new jobs that the digital revolution will ultimately bring, the function and purpose of work within society will have to be reviewed.
YEAR
TOTAL FUNDING
2015 $34,400,000,000
2014 $16,200,000,000
2013 $6,100,000,000
2012 $2,700,000,000
Manyika, J. et al. (2016). Independent
Source: Crowdfunding Industry Statistics
work: Choice, necessity, and the
– Statistic Brain. 2017 Statistic Brain
gig economy. McKinsey Global
Research Institute, publishing as Statistic
Institute. [online] Available at: http://
Brain. September 10, 2016. http://
www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/
www.statisticbrain.com/crowdfunding-
employment-and-growth/independent-
platform-statistics/
work-choice-necessity-and-the-gigeconomy
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Impact Economy
IMPACT ON RESEARCH & EDUCATION: WHAT ROLE CAN HIGHER EDUCATION PLAY IN THE IMPACT ECONOMY?
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Universities could be shapers of societal change as well as knowledge creators, attracting students whose main motivation for study is to create societal impact. As learning needs emerge based on what’s relevant at that specific moment, knowledge institutions should supply learning on demand opportunities for lifelong learning.
- CASE STUDY -
TH E WOR L D ’ S F IRST E T H I C A L S M A RT P HONE Why can’t electronics be more sustainable and open source? With that question in mind, Fairphone started a campaign to develop an ethical and sustainable smartphone. Their crowdfunding campaign was well received, pre-selling 25,000
phones based on the concept before its first production. With this investment, Fairphone was able to create their first prototype using materials from non-conflict mines in Congo, thereby supporting local working conditions and fairer trade.
Fairphone became a certified ‘B Corp’ in 2015. For more information, visit their website: www.fairphone.com Sources: TEDX Amsterdam. (2013). Changing the way products are made. [video] Available at: http://tedx.amsterdam/talks/fairphone-bas-van-abel-at-tedxamsterdam/ [Accessed 20.03.2016].
FEAT URE
Ayelet Baron & Tim MacDonald
WELCOME TO THE HUMAN-TO-HUMAN PURPOSE- AND EXPERIENCEDRIVEN ERA WE WILL SEE A FOUNDATIONAL SHIFT IN OUR COLLECTIVE DEFINITION OF SUCCESS
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ur whole world is undergoing massive changes, as we become more connected human-to-human in countless areas of life. While some experts believe that we are entering the fourth industrial revolution, one that is focused on continued technological innovation that drives economic growth (Schwab, 2016), we are actually entering the human-to-human purpose- and experience-driven era. In this era, people will matter deeply, because more people of all ages are starting to make different choices when it comes to their lives and the way they choose to engage in the world of work. One of the biggest opportunities we have is to tear down the myths that no longer serve us. The first of these is that we are supposed to show up in our lives as two separate people—the professional self and the personal self. In this myth, we have been told that we must find ways to balance our work and our lives in order to achieve ‘success’. The truth of the matter is that this is an impossible feat. While most futurists focus on the Millennial generation’s influence on the future of work, the majority of them omit one of the biggest changes that is happening in society: we are living longer and many people in their 40s, 50s and 60s are asking new questions about their life and work, as they feel the effects of being lifelong workaholics. Many have missed parts of their lives in the pursuit of making a living within organisations that require them to be on call 24/7. People of all ages are realising that we each only have one life and how we live it matters. An increasing number of people are starting to desire to be whole and live full lives, where work is just part of that life.
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is a visionary author, speaker, and former tech executive committed to making a transformational impact on business for the benefit of all humanity. She climbed the corporate ladder for more than a decade at Cisco Systems, where she was the Chief Strategy Officer for Cisco Canada. Ayelet is the author of Our Journey to Corporate Sanity: Transformational Stories from the Frontiers of 21st Century Leadership (Param Media, 2017).
Tim McDonald is the former director of community at The Huffington Post and guides individuals and organisations on their journey to becoming 21st-century leaders. He helps them understand and internalise their role as community builders to deliver their product and/or service through trusted relationships that ignite movements with a customer focus.
People of all ages are realising that we each only have one life and how we live it matters. We waste so much time today in endless meetings, and we struggle to achieve clear flows of communication and information exchanges. And yet, the greater transparency and connectivity we implement in a human-to-human way, the more we can transform business. As Bryan Welch, CEO of B The Change Media, shares in Our Journey to Corporate Sanity: “Consumers are becoming more aware every day of the availability of information and their own power to understand the value systems that govern businesses, and they can demand that the businesses they patronise share their values. What’s about to happen is that people are going to start exercising that power on
Impact Economy
Impact Economy
Ayelet Baron
The second myth stems from the antiquated practice of leading with organisational structure. Imagine a world where everyone in your organisation knew what their individual purpose was and how it aligns with achieving the purpose of the company. Would we then be able to start connecting people with meaningful work? The clearer the company is about why it is in business, what it represents in the world, and what it creates and cocreates, the easier it will be to attract and retain people who want to become part of the company’s story.
a much grander scale. Businesses are going to need to do good in the world to earn the patronage of their customers” (Baron, 2017). As this occurs, the integration of purpose in the fabric of most businesses will become important. The third myth we need to address is the notion of work as a place. We are experiencing massive changes when it comes to the structure of work, and yet we are not having a global conversation on what work really means in today’s world. The whole nature of work is changing beyond flexible and remote working. Our legal and human resources backend systems, for example, are not ready for the gig economy, where people will come together to work on projects. Work will no longer be a place we go to from 9 am to 5 pm. That myth has already been shattered, as more people can work from anywhere, anytime if their current responsibilities do not require them to be in a physical space. We will also see a shift where people will start to self-manage, whereby performance reviews and employee surveys will no longer be needed. There will be easier ways for
We waste so much time today in endless meetings, and we struggle to achieve clear flows of communication and information exchanges.
There will be easier ways for people to engage in dialogue and connect with each other through online communities, where people can share information and have open conversations. The opportunity is for leaders in every organisation around the world to spark the conversations about what work means and tie it into a higher purpose by genuinely respecting human life. It’s time, for example, for Human Resource departments to play a new role by going beyond advocating for the organisation and bringing people- centred design into the fabric of work. We don’t need a redesign of process; we need to lead with the ‘why’ and build a strong foundation around it. Structure needs to follow purpose in the 21st century. Over the next decade, we will see a foundational shift in our collective definition of success, as more of us choose to live full lives by following our own compass. There is a need for a global community to help drive this conversation and see the opportunity of connecting the five generations we currently have working side by side in architecting the future of work.
As a conscious leader, you must find your own purpose in your life and work. If your own purpose is not clear, then how can you drive your organisation’s purpose? If you see your work as your art and creation, then why you are doing it becomes deeply important. This is something that usually gets lost in the creation of mission and vision statements, and it doesn’t get published on the company’s website or framed on the walls of the office. Why are you here? What are you longing for?
The opportunity is for leaders in every organisation around the world to spark the conversations about what work means and tie it into a higher purpose by genuinely respecting human life.
Sources: Schwab, K. (2017). The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond. [online] World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-howto-respond/. Baron, A. (2017). Our Journey To Corporate Sanity: Transformational Stories from the Frontiers of 21st Century Leadership. Vancouver, BC. Param Media Inc.
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Jan Adriaanse STEERING TOWARDS THE FUTURE: HOW DO WE ADAPT? WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT A UNIVERSITY WITHOUT LECTURE HALLS RUN BY PROFESSORS.
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hat makes a business successful? Jan Adriaanse is professor of turnaround management at the Leiden Law School. His research looks at the successes and failures of large cooperation, but also small and medium-sized businesses. The need to futureproof organisations applies to private as well as public knowledge institutions. We asked Adriaanse: How do we know if a business will be successful in the future?
“In banking, computers can objectively calculate a business’s success rate based on numbers and other non-financial data. Recent experiments suggest that computers have a much higher success rate than people when it comes to making predictions of this kind: the element of human bias has been removed.” Have success factors changed over the years? “Customer loyalty, previously earned by producing quality products and friendly customer service, no longer exist. Because of the internet and price transparency it has become a race to the bottom. Producers who can offer the lowest price get the customers – but only if they are reliable and can deliver quickly. Customers don’t want to wait if they can get the same thing elsewhere.”
As an expert on change management, what steps would you recommend businesses take to become future-proof? “First you have to look at the relevance of the products in the marketplace: review the external environment and have a look at the current trends and developments. Who are the new competitors and were there any surprises? Think about Free Record Shop and their competitors iTunes or Spotify. They signalled that the market was going to change, but Free Record Shop weren’t able to respond quickly enough. That’s
Are customers aware that their continuous need for availability is detrimental to small businesses? Do they care?
What effect does this have on employees? “It’s all about flexible business models and low fixed costs. This means fewer expensive office buildings and fewer permanent staff. This is something we’re seeing already: contract workers and freelancers are on the rise. People are only hired for one ‘gig’ and employees with mediocre results are let go.” What about the future of the university? “Education and the way we learn will change. Do students still want to spend their time in lecture halls? We need to think about a university without lecture halls run by professors. These rooms could be used as inspiration spaces and meeting spaces where students and staff come together to work on projects. We already have MOOCs (Massive Online Open Courses) and that’s why you don’t really need physical lectures in one space. It would be wrong to think that the way we teach now will always have a market.” Are university degrees still important in the future? “What if, in the future, you can add 30 MOOCs to your CV? 30 MOOCs that are targeted, relevant educational programmes run by the world’s experts in their field. This would make that person an attractive candidate in the job market. Is this really less valuable than asking students to come to two hours of lectures and two seminars each week?
What kind of companies are better at responding to these changes in customer behaviour? “Existing companies generally find it more difficult to adapt to such developments than start-ups. Their existing investments, staff and work culture makes it difficult to make rapid changes. Start-ups, on the other hand, have an open playing field. That being said, small investors have their own difficulties – for example in retail, customers are used to shops being open seven days a week and therefore small shop owners will have to be open on all days in order to compete.”
a benefit start-ups have over established business – they don’t have existing obligations or personnel to consider and can start in the attic.”
‘contract workers and freelancers are on the rise. People are only hired for one ‘gig’ and employees with mediocre results are let go.’
Consider this: what if a company starts their own academy, a private university, to train their students for three years for free, and they select the best and brightest for their programme. After ‘graduation’ they would work another three years for the company. Is this type of education and experience worth less than a conventional university degree? The university needs to look ahead at 20, 30 years from now. We don’t know what the future will bring, but we can look at current trends and developments and make informed decisions about the future of education. Will we become a digital university?”
Impact Economy
Impact Economy
I NTERV IE W
“Well, if you ask customers directly, they say what they want is personal interaction and friendly customer service. The paradox is that their 24/7 mentality puts a stop to that. I think that in the future, most purchasing will be done via the internet and as a result, small retailers will disappear – unless they adapt. There is a countermovement going on now that people have more spare time. These people are looking for unique experiences as part of their shopping habits. Small businesses could play a part in this.”
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Could new digital technologies be used to collect and share insights to tackle global challenges on a large scale? Studies have shown that decisions made with the help of large groups of people tend to be more accurate than any individual’s, as long as individuals within that group aren’t influenced by each other’s biased opinions (Surowiecki, 2005). By sharing data and insights, including the issues individuals and organisations usually face alone, many bright minds could be brought together to jointly produce solutions that benefit us all.
Collective Intelligence
Collective Intelligence
HOW CAN WE USE COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE TO DO GOOD?
COL LEC TIVE INTEL LI GENCE
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include more women (mixed gender) generally show the most favourable outcome (Malone, 2012). In the coming years, Levy expects human collective intelligence to increase by turning data into knowledge with the help of algorithms, adding ‘transparency’ and ‘interoperability’ that could democratise knowledge (Álvaro, 2014). The technologies to facilitate this would need to be globally accessible, secure and open to the public.
Sources: Álvaro, S. (2014). EML: A Project for a New Humanism. An interview with Pierre Lévy. CCCBLAB. [online] Available at: http://lab.cccb.org/en/ieml-a-project-
So what is required to achieve successful collective intelligence? According to research by Tom Malone, who founded the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, groups with ‘social perceptiveness’, who practise “evenness of conversational turn-taking” and
for-a-new-humanism-an-interview-withpierre-levy/ [Accessed 14 Apr. 2017]. Malone, T.W. (2012). Collective Intelligence: A Conversation with Thomas W. Malone. Edge. [online] Available at: https://www.edge.org/conversation/ thomas_w__malone-collectiveintelligence [Accessed on 14 Apr. 2017].
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: QUESTIONS FROM A SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
– What influence does collective decisionmaking have on the relationship between citizens and political systems? – Should future decision-making be based on collective intelligence rather than expert advice of a select few? – How can we ensure that collective data is used openly and responsibly?
CHAMP IO NING T HE CO L L EC T I V E
What is new is the sheer volume of opportunities the digital age has brought us to harness collective intelligence. Now it is possible for anyone to have stimulating discussions online, and to share insights and code on open-source platforms where content can be peer-reviewed and reused.
Collective Intelligence
Collective Intelligence
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hat’s new about ‘collective intelligence’? The term itself isn’t: it was first used by philosopher Pierre Levy in 1994 when he researched the benefit of group intelligence over the individual, something that according to Levy has always existed in ‘all animal societies’ (Álvaro, 2014).
“We tend to disdain averageness – we like to think of ourselves as above average, even if it’s impossible for all of us to be – but averageness can represent the best of humans. When you average a bunch of our faces, the collective us is more attractive than any one individual; if you average a bunch of our guesses, the collective us is more intelligent.”
Jane C Hu Hu, J.C. (2016). Group smarts. Aeon.
NEW TECHNOLOGIES Blockchain: a collective memory Who should own the collective intelligence data that is shaped by many? The underlying technology of cryptocurrency bitcoin, called Blockchain, could offer the answer. Blockchain is a decentralised form of collective intelligence that has the potential to revolutionise the way we create, process and share information, as well as secure and protect its value. Blockchain technology allows us to map every microtransaction on a ledger (in the case of Bitcoin), so that all actions are recorded and authorised by the chain of blocks. Instead of overwriting old data, blockchain extends its chain with new blocks and encrypts it, making blockchain a safe yet transparent database that could be viewed by anyone. As a result of recording every step, blockchain allows us to see
the relationship between each action and the impact it makes. As the encrypted blockchain is a distributed database and updated constantly, it is almost impossible to corrupt: any unauthorised attempt to change a block will be flagged up by the preceding block, thus making it a secure system thanks to the infrastructure’s very nature. Bitcoin is the most famous example using blockchain technology, but Ethereum (a currency that allows smart contracts to be linked to transactions) and Voatz (a blockchain-based voting system in the form of a mobile app) are two other examples that could revolutionise the way we share content in the future.
[online] Available at https://aeon.co/ essays/how-collective-intelligence-
Sources: TEDSummit (2016). How the blockchain is changing money and business. [video] Available at: https://www.ted.com/talks/
overcomes-the-problem-of-groupthink
don_tapscott_how_the_blockchain_is_changing_money_and_business [Accessed 5 Apr. 2017].
[Accessed 14 Apr. 2017].
Greenhall, J. (2016). Lets get this straight, Bitcoin is an experiment in self-organizing collective intelligence. Medium. [online] https:// medium.com/deep-code/lets-get-this-straight-bitcoin-is-an-experiment-in-self-organizing-collective-intelligence-52d78212c5e6 [Accessed 5 Apr. 2017].
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FEAT URE
HOW COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE COULD WORK OR HIGHER EDUCATION
Nathaniel Raymond
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Collective intelligence could be used to generate and share knowledge both within and outside academic communities.
Continued, high-quality engagement is required to sustain useful collective intelligence in the form of commitment and resources.
Reliable validation mechanisms would need to be built to assess and select on relevance and quality.
- CASE STUDY -
CO LLEC TI VE I N T E L L I G E N C E IN AC T I O N AG A I NST D ISEASE Microreact, by Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute and Imperial College London, is an open-access online platform that tracks information on diseases such as Ebola and Zika. The programme encourages researchers
to upload their latest insights about epidemics in real time, allowing fellow academics and researchers around the world to access this data and together work to reduce the risks and spreading of infectious diseases worldwide.
For more information, visit: www.microreact.org Sources: Microreact. (2017). Open data visualization and sharing for genomic epidemiology. [online] https://microreact.org/showcase [Accessed 14 Apr. 2017]. Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute. (2016). Online epidemic tracking tool embraces open data and collective intelligence to understand outbreaks. ScienceDaily. [online] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161130082806.htm [Accessed 14 Apr. 2017].
Collective Intelligence
Collective Intelligence
IMPACT ON RESEARCH & EDUCATION:
THE TRUE PURPOSE OF COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE EVERY NEW WAY OF SEEING CARRIES WITH IT SOME NEW WAY OF BEING BLIND
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nly six years ago, when my colleagues and I launched the Satellite Sentinel Project consortium at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), the use of high-resolution satellite imagery analysis to detect and document threats to civilians in near real time in Sudan and South Sudan was still considered ‘cutting edge’ to humanitarians and human rights workers. Our work was novel and scary to the point that it was constantly described as the stuff of science fiction. Now, just over half a decade later, the application of this tool for this purpose can, instead, almost be called ‘commonplace’ by any definition of the word. However, we would be naive to think that the growing ubiquity of fused mosaics of multiple streams of data – geospatial layers, social media data, etc. – means that we somehow fully know what we are doing. We don’t. As I say to my colleagues at HHI routinely, “Every new way of seeing carries with it some new way of being blind.” The new learning we as a sector must undertake now is no longer about the potential applications of data, about the perceived magic of remote sensors, about the perceived power of pixels, or the permutations of ones and zeros.
The challenge of now is learning what these capabilities can do to the real-life on-theground human beings whom we purport to assist with these technologies; what rights they have to information and protection from its harms; and what new theories, concepts, and capacities we must develop and sustain to apply these tools safely, justly and effectively. The urgency of needing to learn these lessons has never been more clear. In 2012, we ended our participation in the Satellite Sentinel Project to form the Signal
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Nathaniel A. Raymond is Director of the Signal Program on Human Security and Technology at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) of the Harvard T.I. Chan School of Public Health. He was formerly Director of Operations of the Satellite Sentinel Project at HHI, which was a co-recipient of the 2012 US Geospatial Foundation Industry Intelligence Achievement Award.
There is emerging quantitative and qualitative data suggesting that using information communication technologies with highly vulnerable populations may, in fact, cause harm in some cases to those we ostensibly seek to aid. Evidence collected by Grant Gordon and Sean Martin MacDonald about the impact of satellite monitoring on conflict-affected communities in Darfur, Sudan and the use of call detail record collection during
It is time for those who seek to use data, as well as the technologies that collect and communicate it, to view ethics and standards as technologies that require innovating themselves. Someday, when historians look back at this particular moment in time, how we will be measured will not be by the degree to which we harnessed available modalities to realise some far-off ‘future’. We will be measured by the degree to which we recognised our obligations to those who are alive now. We will be measured not by how we innovated technology, but by how we transformed ourselves.
F EATU RE
Regina Joseph
PRESERVING THE HUMAN EDGE: The Future of Quantified Forecasting WITHIN THE PUBLIC SECTOR, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, MINISTRIES AND NGOS, TAKE-UP OF CROWDSOURCED QUANTIFIED FORECASTING PLATFORMS HAS BEGUN
F
orecasting on forecasting may sound like a fool’s errand to some, but refinement of the breakthroughs from the last five years is already shedding light on what we can expect in forecasting science over the next three years. Progress will build on the remarkable achievements of the Good
where they would be tracked on the accuracy of predictions by effective aggregation algorithms— was the best way of attaining significant improvements in forecasting accuracy. It was the first scientific exploration of its kind, and since its conclusion in 2015, the seeds it has spawned are starting to germinate.
the Ebola pandemic, respectively, demonstrate some of these potential harms.
Progress will build on the remarkable achievements of the Good Judgment Project, led by University of Pennsylvania Wharton Professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. Begun in 2011 as part of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity’s (IARPA) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) programme, the Good Judgment Project was tasked with determining the most accurate geopolitical forecasting methods and individuals. The ACE programme yielded the discovery of Superforecasters and advanced the heretofore scoffed notion that prediction of certain future outcomes was not only possible, but could also be done with notable accuracy. The programme established that selecting people for certain types of cognitive traits; training people in probabilistic theory and concepts in metacognition; teaming them up; and putting them in a rigorous environment
Industry sectors like finance have long known the value of quantitative forecasting, but the added value of collaborative platforms and scoring algorithms have nurtured the rise of the ‘alpha capture’ concept; in it analysts can use technical forecasting platforms to estimate the value of trading ideas and whether they pan out or not. Several firms, like Marshall Wace and TIM Group in Europe and Two Sigma, FactSet and Bloomberg in the US, have gained notoriety for this emerging adaptation of collaborative forecasting, which is predicted to grow by at least 20% in ‘total commissions over the next several years’ by such industry watchers as the TABB Group. Within the public sector, government agencies, ministries and NGOs have proceeded at a slightly slower pace, but takeup of crowdsourced quantified forecasting platforms has begun. In November of 2016, my company Sibylink was engaged by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands – in association with 12 other government ministries, NGOs, think tanks and universities – to introduce the world’s first cross-agency strategic foresight programme featuring a crowdsourced forecasting tournament on geopolitical issues. As more data become available
on how such systems can help provide better foresight in times of complex uncertainty, programmes like the Netherlands’ can provide important feedback on how decision-makers can harness the wisdom of such targeted crowds. The frontier for the next three years will continue to be shaped by IARPA’s contributions to the science. Starting in late 2017, a new four and a half year programme will be launched. This one, called HFC, or Hybrid Forecasting Competition, will run until 2022 and is anticipated to leapfrog our understanding in the field. With the ACE programme providing information on the best human forecasters, and other IARPA programmes, like OSI and others, yielding the state of the art in machine learning forecasting designs, the HFC programme aims to bring these two formats together to discover which hybrid formations are optimal for merging the best capacity among human forecasters and computational prediction models. On the basis of pending HFC results in 2022, the field of quantitative crowdsourced forecasting could yet serve as a blueprint for preserving the human edge in an increasingly automated future.
Regina Joseph is the founder of Sibylink (www.sibylink.com), an international consultancy based in The Hague and New York devoted to providing strategic foresight on global issues through forecasting tournaments, futures-oriented analysis, training coursework and digital solutions development. Twitter: @Superforecastr
Collective Intelligence
Collective Intelligence
Program on Human Security and Technology at HHI. This decision was taken because we learned, in some cases quite painfully, that the innovation of technology alone without a corresponding innovation of professional ethics and technical standards is not truly innovation at all.
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- TREND 6 -
First Brexit, then Trump: two pivotal moments in 2016 that shocked the political establishment to its core. It sent out a message to the wider world, confirming that there are groups of people who are unhappy about the state of their community, who are worried about their future in an increasingly VUCA – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous – world. This feeling of uncertainty is much broader and structural than these more recent political events suggest. Climate change, terrorism threats, a fragile global financial system and demographic shifts are steadily changing the way we look ahead at the second part of the 21st century. Can this feeling of doom and gloom be tackled and turned into something positive?
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LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY: WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
HACK ING UN CER TAIN TY
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Monthly Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (recreated) Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, policyuncertainty.com, 2017. Available at: http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf [Accessed 25 Apr. 2017].
How do we respond to a world of uncertainty in a fast-changing world? Can we ‘hack’ this feeling with digital technology and channel our efforts into something that will positively impact future generations? As much as recent global and political concerns can become a negative sentiment, the increasing role of technology also offers a real opportunity to reduce uncertainty. Can we fuel and strengthen local community spirit with the help of, and not despite of our increasingly online lifestyles, to tackle the feeling disconnectedness? The opportunity to tackle global uncertainty might or
might not be found by nation states or a collective: it also lies with the individual. With more technological prowess at our fingertips than ever before, and connectivity spreading to all corners of the world, citizens can contribute to the positive change they seek. Institutions in the educational, political and business sectors have an important role to play in encouraging this shift towards participation and engagement, by providing open and clear access to data, tools and methods. By nurturing an opendoor policy where people can meet, experiment, ask questions and be challenged to participate in creating social change, we can start to make a difference.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: QUESTIONS FROM A SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE
– How do symptoms of uncertainty, such as stress and depression, affect people’s longterm prospects and life choices? – Will instability become a new equilibrium or will the trend move towards greater, more violent tensions across the globe? – What is the impact of uncertainty on institutional arrangements such as the rule of law, pension funds or social welfare?
HACKIN G U NCETAINT Y BY TAKING R ISK S
U.S. elections •
“My dream—the solution—is that we would have a National Entrepreneur Day, with the following message: Most of you will fail, disrespected, impoverished, but we are grateful for the risks you are taking and the sacrifices you are making for the sake of the economic growth of the planet and pulling others out of poverty. You are at the source of our antifragility. Our nation thanks you.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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MA PPING UNC ERTAI NTY How do you measure the level of uncertainty in society? Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, three academics from Kellogg School of Management, Stanford University and the University of Chicago respectively, developed the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU) to measure economic policy changes and its coverage in the media in the world’s largest economies. Tracking the combination and frequency of words like ‘uncertainty’, ‘economy’ and ‘deficit’, the EPU index shows an increase in uncertainty as a result of global disruptive events such as the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis and Brexit. (policyuncertainty. com, 2017). The EPU research team found that the
level of economic policy uncertainty increased significantly over the last few years, noting that there is a correlation between the level of economic uncertainty and the decrease in economic growth and employment (Baker, Bloom, Davis, 2016). In a conference speech about Brexit in 2017, Peter Praet of the European Central Bank warned of the media’s negative effects on the economy, concerned that it feeds uncertainty and ‘pessimism’ which “over time alters investors’ and consumers’ expectations” (Praet, 2017). Noting the recent developments in communication technologies and the acceleration of (fake) news, Praet believes it is a ‘serious matter’ and that “it is important to be wary of them” (Praet, 2017).
Sources: Praet, P. (2017). Creating stability in an uncertain world. Brexit and the implications for financial services. [conference] Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170223.en.html
Taleb, N.N. (2014). Antifragile: Things
2017 [Accessed 25 Apr. 2017]. PolicyUncertainty.com. (2017). Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. [online]
That Gain From Disorder. United States.
Available at: http://www.policyuncertainty.com/methodology [Accessed 25 Apr. 2017].
Random House.
Baker, S.R., Bloom, N, Davis, S.J. (2016) Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Policyuncertainty.com. [online] Available at: http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/EPU_BBD_Mar2016.pdf [Accessed 25 Apr. 2017].
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IMPACT ON RESEARCH & EDUCATION:
INT ERVIEW
HOW CAN UNCERTAINTY AFFECT THE HIGHER EDUCATION SECTOR?
Saskia Sassen
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Students should be taught the skills to be adaptable and resilient, stressing the importance of lifelong learning and investing in skills development throughout their career.
THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CITY
Better coaching is required, to deal with the anxieties uncertainty brings and the difficulty of making life-changing decisions. More flexible, shorter sprints of education could mean less attention and funding for longer-term themes.
THERE IS PROBABLY MUCH MORE ROOM TO INNOVATE IN MOST CITIES THAN WE THINK.
- CASE STUDY -
S
askia Sassen is a real global citizen: she was born in the Netherlands, grew up in Argentina and Italy, studied in France and was raised in five languages. As the Robert S. Lynd Professor of Sociology at Columbia University and a Member of its Committee on Global Thought, her work includes research on cities, immigration and states in the world economy. We asked Sassen about globalisation, its effect on the economy and infrastructures worldwide. What is the Global City and how is its position changing vis a vis the nation state?
TH RI V E – L E A D ING TH RO U G H C H ANCE Babson San Francisco, Free Range and the Centre for Innovation recently launched THRIVE, a series of conversations with founders, thought leaders and changemakers about business disruption and social innovations. THRIVE consists of a series of web, podcast and in-person events that explore the techniques and mindsets innovators have relied on to adapt and grow in an age of constant disruption. Each conversation digs deep into personal struggles, setbacks and breakthroughs, revealing stories rarely heard from inside some of the world’s most admired purposedriven companies.
“The first step towards conceptualising the Global City function was my discomfort with the widespread notion in the 1980s that place no longer mattered in a global and digitised economy. It was clear that new types of firms were growing fast and locating in major cities, even as large corporate headquarters were leaving some of these cities. What was the
Learn more at: freerange.com/thrive/
No system seems to have lasted forever and neither will the current dominant organisational logic of corporate globalisation
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Which major changes and disruptions in today’s world were caused by globalisation? “One important impact was the rise of a global service industry. You can see that large corporate firms without a global footprint would hire full-time staff to execute their diverse needs, and these jobs offered upward mobility ladders to good workers, etc. But once the global era took off and corporations went global they needed specialised law, accounting, financial services for 20, 50 or more countries. This meant that they needed access to a whole new mix of complex specialised services almost impossible to produce in-house as had been the practice. De facto it meant that a vast new type of operational space installed itself in these cities. We see the second impact in the job landscape. These cities create large numbers of high-level jobs and low-wage jobs; far fewer middle-range jobs would be needed. But those low-level jobs, whether in the office or in households, would matter more than one might imagine by just looking at the tasks. I described them as the work of ‘maintaining a strategic infrastructure’.“
Cities command power over the way their citizens live their lives. In this sense, the city’s economic fabric matters in a similar way a nation state matters to those who live there
Is globalisation a never-ending development or is it a process that will develop into a more stable condition in the future? In which ways, do you think, are we able to influence these developments? “No system seems to have lasted forever and neither will the current dominant organisational logic of corporate globalisation. What I see emerging with growing power is what I like to call ‘extractive’ sectors – key aspects of finance are extractive. Look at the mining industry, and the expulsion of millions of small-holders every year to make room for corporate extraction. With land becoming scarce, it increases in value – and livelihoods matter less and less. We have to be aware of the political consequences this has on an international, interdependent world economy.”
argument is that in today’s world – when so many people are getting expelled from their land, the large cities become places where those expelled from rural areas can still find refuge. This is the reason why I have become so engaged with the whole issue of corporations buying big parts of our cities.” What will happen to the ‘powerless’ in cities if the buying of property by largescale investors continues? What is this process of expulsion going to mean for the citizens in the city? “This is indeed a very serious issue and that is why I called my latest book Expulsions: more and more are becoming marginalised, and are increasingly invisible to the economic eye. Even though we see more and more very low-wage jobs, these are not enough for meaningful livelihoods. Also, and more importantly to the social fabric of cities: these
Will cities become more important than nation-states? “Cities command power over the way their citizens live their lives. In this sense, the city’s economic fabric matters in a similar way a nation state matters to those who live there. For example, a hundred or so cities have become key platforms for a growing range of activities in the world. It is tempting to think that it means that all cities are becoming similar. No: there is far more specialisation and local, unique flavour than meets the eye. Each of these cities has specialised capabilities that differ a bit from other cities. And some can be fairly small and just specialise in a limited range of capabilities.” You recently said: “The city is the place where those without power get to make history”. Do you see the city as a place of emancipation and perhaps therefore as a foundation for the creation of a more equal society? “Emancipation is a big word. If anything, it is more like elements of emancipation. My
in today’s world large cities become places where those expelled from rural areas can still find refuge
Hacking Uncertainty
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combination of elements that might produce this ironic outcome: the fact that the most global, powerful, rich, and digitised economic actors needed ‘central places’, and perhaps more than ever before? In a digital age, this dependence is still very much a driving force behind what makes large, global firms successful.”
are jobs that will always stay in the same income bracket. There is no upward mobility, no matter how hard you work. The ladders are gone.” Are local politicians failing to understand what will be the effect of foreign investors buying property in a city? Are they able to influence or change this development? “Local politics is an enormously varied domain – for example it depends on the type of authority and resources granted to cities. But yes, I think that they matter and they do what can be done. More often than not this is a grey zone, and we might be able to do much more than we think we can do. For instance, the environmental question has made the rights of bikers an increasingly prominent issue in cities that never had much biking. There is probably much more room to innovate in most cities than we think.”
Photo: Alex MacNaughton
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Lex Hoogduin & Jochem Wiers
FOREIGN POLICY IN A VUCA WORLD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY WILL NOT MAKE DIPLOMACY OBSOLETE: IT WILL TRANSFORM IT
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ecent interviews with leaders from both the public and private sectors paint a picture of a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world (Gowing and Langdon, 2015). In such a world, leadership is mainly about how to deal with uncertainties: the keywords in the interviews were coping and adapting. It is quite a challenge to show leadership in that kind of world, while at the same time convincing the electorate. A similar challenge confronts the Dutch Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation. They are tasked with no less than nine objectives between them, including the promotion of the international rule of law and human rights, security, European collaboration, fair trade and development. These are not just ambitious objectives; they are also difficult to make tangible. The only clearly defined
Lex Hoogduin is part-time professor of the
ministerial responsibilities are those concerning consular representation1. The rest are all goals the Netherlands could possibly contribute to, but actually achieving them greatly depends on others, and on developments beyond their control.
Economics of Complexity and Uncertainty in Financial Markets and Financial Institutions in the Department of Economics, Econometrics and Finance, University of Groningen.
Foreign policymakers face uncertainty, complexity, a host of ambitious objectives, an abundance of information and opinion, and little time. You can add to this list a variety of political interests and political games that are played. As diplomats and policymakers at the MFA, we are well aware that the world is uncertain and complex, and we incorporate this into our advice as best we can. We filter the wealth of information, judge it, put it into political perspective (what is feasible considering the political landscape at home, in Europe and beyond?).
Jochem Wiers Sources: Gowing, N. and Langdon, C. (2015). Thinking the Unthinkable: A
is head of the Brexit Task Force of the
New Imperative for Leadership in the
Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Digital Age. Churchill Central. [online]
He is honorary professor on policy and
Available at: https://www.churchillcentral.
decision-making at the University of
com/dms/cms-content/Panel-reports/
Groningen. Until recently, he led the
Thinking-the-Unthinkable--A-New-
Ministry’s Strategy Advisory Unit.
Imperative-for-Leadership-in-the-DigitalAge-/ De Spiegeleire, S. (2014). What the official websites say. HCSS.nl [online]
And yet we could arguably do a better job if we dealt with all that uncertainty and complexity in a more explicit way. By making better and more systematic use of available data. By laying bare our assumptions, actively countering groupthink and tunnel vision, and seeking different opinions even if these may appear ‘unpalatable’. Science provides us with possibilities we are not yet using to their maximum effect, but these possibilities will only be useful when the gap to policy makers’ reality is bridged. The Netherlands MFA, in particular its Strategy Advisory Unit (ESA is its Dutch acronym), is experimenting with some of these possibilities. It commissioned an experimental study by the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) on the use of big(gish) data to learn from the language used on official websites of emerging powers (De Spiegeleire, 2014). Big data analysis is now being used by the Ministry in development cooperation and humanitarian assistance. This year, the MFA will start a ‘Superforecasting’ experiment based on the groundbreaking work of Phil Tetlock (Tetlock and Gardner, 2015). Colleagues from the MFA and ten other Dutch organisations will receive training in recognising and overcoming cognitive biases and participate in a tournament in which they make and update
Available at: http://www.hcss.nl/report/ what_the_official_websites_say_1 Tetlock, P. and Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, London: Random House. 1
See the general objective in the national Dutch budget’s
Chapter V, Article 4: ‘Providing excellent consular services to Dutch citizens in emergency situations abroad, as well as providing travel documents to Dutch citizens abroad.’ 2
For more information on FAUC, see www.glocomnet.com.
Foreign policymakers face uncertainty, complexity, a host of ambitious objectives, an abundance of information and opinion, and little time
probability assessments of events in international relations in the near future. ESA also invited an external expert in uncertainty and complexity, prof Lex Hoogduin, to the MFA. Together with him, we explore how his approach, the Framework for Action under Uncertainty and Complexity, can be applied to foreign policy issues2. This framework (FAUC) facilitates agents, policymakers to act effectively in this complex world and facing an uncertain future. FAUC emphasises the importance of dealing with inevitable potential surprises, mistakes, limited controllability and predictability of future developments. It underlines that it is crucial for an agent to be resilient, alert, adaptive and creative and offers methods and techniques to that effect. Agents should follow a constant feedback process to detect and cope with potential surprises and mistakes. Finally, a colleague is exploring to what extent insights from behavioural sciences can be applied to foreign policy, such as consular work. These experiments are small scale and it will be quite a challenge to mainstream their results into dayto-day policy making in the fastmoving international environment and the frantic and fragmented political and media landscape in which we are making foreign policy. Nevertheless, they are very exciting because they illustrate that new developments in various sciences and technologies offer not only new ways of pursuing diplomacy, but also a glimpse of a world in which international relations and ministries of foreign affairs will look decidedly different from what they are now. Science and technology will not make diplomacy obsolete, but will transform it.
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Jonah Sachs EXCELLING IN INNOVATION IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD AT FREE RANGE, WE WANT TO HAVE CONVERSATIONS WITH PROMINENT INNOVATORS NOT JUST ABOUT WHAT THEY’VE DONE BUT THE ATTITUDES, PRACTICES AND MINDSETS THAT HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO DO IT.
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onah Sachs is Author, Co-founder and Chief Storytelling Officer at Free Range Studios. Together with Babson College and the Centre for Innovation, he recently started THRIVE - Leading through Change, a series that presents prominent figures from various sectors who have excelled in innovation. Having collaborated with innovators for a long time, how does he think they experience the growing uncertainty in the world?
There is more of an attitude of ‘if we don’t do this, nobody will.’
“The innovators I’ve known have always been more attuned to global challenges than the general public. Maybe because they’re natural problem-finders and that’s what makes them so good at what they do. But more recently, I’ve seen that innovators are less optimistic that large, traditional institutions will play the leading role they’d once expected them to. There is more of an attitude of ‘if we don’t do this, nobody will.’” How difficult is it to run a successful business if the environment is so unpredictable, fast-paced and politically unstable?
Can you name some of the recurring management principles that you see in successful entrepreneurs who have taken bold decisions, and how much would also apply to political leadership? “Valuing exploration over expertise: One of the most important mindsets I’ve observed is the explorer mindset. Essentially, leaders face a thorny dilemma managing in environments that require creativity. They must build up a large amount of expert knowledge in our fields yet the more they come to identify as experts, research shows, the slower they are to learn and adapt. Organisations that are structured with acknowledged ‘experts’ on top, who get to those positions and maintain them because of some fixed sense of expertise tend to become overly rigid, hierarchical and slow to adapt. People spend less time exploring the new and more time defending their current thinking. Really innovative organisations tend to be passionate about new knowledge acquisition but also encourage team members to accept being wrong, to step out of their areas of comfort and to reward growth rather than consistency. Counterintuitive thinking: In a world that changes incredibly quickly, what’s obvious and intuitive one day can completely change the next. It would have seemed
crazy to rent out the bed of a non-licenced stranger ten years ago. Today, it is more intuitive than using a hotel service. Many organisations and industries rely on two processes: intuition and analysis. Both have their strengths but both have major pitfalls. Intuition is often just conventional wisdom or bias disguised as a strong gut feeling. And analysis tends to be helpful in more predictable environments. Organisations I’ve seen that intentionally introduce a third process, counterintuitive thinking, are able to balance the weaknesses of the other two important thought modes.” You have started THRIVE: what was your motivation to do this? “At Free Range, we want to have conversations with prominent innovators not just about what they’ve done but the attitudes, practices and mindsets that have allowed them to do it. We want people to tell their personal stories and begin to paint a picture for aspiring entrepreneurs and those hoping to reach the next level about what others have struggled with and ultimately done to succeed.” What would you say to the students you are trying to reach: what are the best strategies for them to acquire meaningful leadership skills? “The more I’ve interviewed successful innovators, the more I’ve become convinced that early success is overrated. At the beginning of one’s career it’s important to seek out work experiences.”
Really innovative organisations tend to be passionate about new knowledge acquisition but also encourage team members to accept being wrong
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I N T ERV IE W
“The environment we’ve been working with has been extremely fast-paced and unpredictable in most sectors for quite some time now. That’s something that a tremendous amount of thought has gone into designing for. I’m actually writing my second book, Unsafe Thinking, about the types of mindsets that tend to allow people to adapt skillfully to these conditions. The political instability, however, is something new. We’ve taken this part really for granted for quite some time in the US and Europe. I think innovation will continue, but if barriers continue to go up, I think companies will naturally migrate to places where talent can more fluidly move.”
Change is happening faster than ever, bringing about waves of opportunities and challenges. These we explore and research. We experiment, we innovate, no matter how big or complex. We believe in learning for ourselves and for others. At the Centre for Innovation, we don't know exactly where our journey will take us. We will visit new shores, meet new people, and invite you to come along. It might not always be easy, but we promise: it won't be boring. We all might even learn a thing or two. And, hopefully, together we will improve the world for the better.
INNOVATE WITH US. VISIT US DURING FUTURE FRIDAY TO SEE HOW WE CAN CONNECT.
www.centre4innovation.org
