08 May 2014 Asia Pacific/Singapore Equity Research Strategy
The Singapore Reporter Research Analysts Sanjay Mookim 65 6212 3017
[email protected] Kwee Hong Ching 65 6212 3142
[email protected]
STRATEGY
Mean reverting bounce over? Figure 1: Even though SG has underperformed the region YTD, it has done well since the peaks in May 2013 (and through the subsequent EM crisis)
Annuar Aziz (Transportation) 603 2723 2084 Chate Benchavitvilai (Telecom Services) 65 6212 3241 Ting Min Tan (Agricultural Products & Agribusiness) 603 2723 2080 Priscilla Tjitra (Agricultural Products & Agribusiness) 62 21 2553 7906 Arjan van Veen (Diversified Financials) 852 2101 7508 Foong Wai Loke (Casinos & Gaming) 603 2723 2082 Leonard Huo, CFA (Land Transport) 65 6212 3062 Iris Wang (Healthcare) 852 2101 7646 Michael Wan (Economics) 65 6212 3418 Kwee Hong Ching (Strategy) 65 6212 3142 Louis Chua 65 6212 3024 Daniel Lim 65 6212 3011
70 60
in USD terms
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
50
Sep-13
Timothy Ross (Transportation) 65 6212 3337
80
Aug-13
Gerald Wong, CFA (Capital Goods) 65 6212 3037
90
Jul-13
Yvonne Voon (Property - Developer & REITs) 65 6212 3026
100
Jun-13
Anand Swaminathan (Banks / Media / Healthcare / Mid-caps) 65 6212 3012
110
May-13
Singapore Research Analyst Team Sanjay Mookim (Strategy) 65 6212 3017
Phillipines
Source: Reuters, Credit Suisse research
With this inaugural April 2014 edition, we launch the CS Singapore Reporter, a monthly summary of key economic / market and sectoral developments in Singapore. The note is designed to be light on text/reading, and relies more on charts to facilitate a quick scan through each month. ■ Mean reversion: The STI was up 2.4% in April 2014, continuing its bounce from lows seen in Feb. Yet MSCI SG has underperformed MSCI SEA by 4.4% and outperformed MSCI AXJ by 2.3% YTD. Developers/REITs went up on valuations and falling bond yields. CPO stocks continued their strength while M&A (and expectations of M&A) recreated a (long missing) buzz in the market. ■ Economic hiccup: March exports (NODX) missed sizeably, falling 6.6% YoY. 1Q advanced GDP numbers (5.1% YoY) were lower than expectations though the subsequent March IP number (12.1% YoY) surprised positively. Nonetheless, we think the Singapore economy, through its strong external linkages should continue to benefit from improving global growth. Top down, this should help market EPS, pushing the index up. ■ The next push? The STI/MSCI SG are at c.13.7 times forward P/E, which is close to five-year averages. P/B for the developer stocks have also bounced back to close to two year averages. Short interest in SG is also low. We expect limited further rerating of the market; earnings should matter more now. We prefer DBS, KEP amongst large caps. In our model portfolio, we reduce REITs and add telcos, increasing weights in Noble/Agri-commodities.
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS
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08 May 2014
SG relative to ASEAN Figure 2: MSCI SEA sector performance* by country (USD) relative to SEA Index Singapore Banks Capital Goods Telecommunication Services Real Estate Consumer Discretionary Transportation REITs Consumer Staples Diversified Financials Malaysia Banks Telecommunication Services Utilities Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Capital Goods Energy Materials Transportation Health Care Real Estate Thailand Banks Energy Materials Telecommunication Services Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Transportation Real Estate Health Care Utilities Indonesia Banks Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Telecommunication Services Materials Utilities Energy Real Estate Health Care Capital Goods Transportation Philippines Capital Goods Real Estate Banks Telecommunication Services Diversified Financials Consumer Staples Utilities Transportation Consumer Discretionary
1W 0.7 0.4 -0.1 3.7 0.9 -1.4 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.3 0.5 -0.2 2.6 -0.7 2.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 -1.7 0.2 1.5 -2.6 -0.8 -2.3 0.7 -2.1 1.6 -3.2 0.8 -0.9 2.1 6.9 -1.2 -1.1 -0.5 -4.4 1.0 -0.8 -3.2 -0.9 2.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 0.9 0.1 0.4 -0.7 1.7 -1.4
2W 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 3.0 3.0 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 0.7 0.6 2.2 -0.1 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 -0.6 -2.9 2.0 -2.8 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.7 4.6 -3.9 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 10.7 -4.1 -2.0 -2.3 -3.8 0.0 -1.1 -7.3 0.6 7.9 -4.6 -0.1 1.3 -1.6 -0.1 0.6 0.6 -1.4 2.4 0.8 0.5 -1.8 0.2 -2.4
3W 1.4 0.5 -1.3 4.1 9.4 -1.2 2.5 0.4 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 1.8 -1.0 0.8 -1.1 0.0 -2.1 -1.6 -3.6 3.7 -0.7 2.3 1.4 2.5 2.1 8.6 -4.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 11.9 0.2 -4.8 -5.0 -7.5 -1.3 -2.6 -13.5 -1.1 9.3 -9.9 0.3 1.7 -5.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.1 3.6 3.8 -0.6 -2.1 -0.4 -1.9
1M 0.9 0.8 -1.3 2.6 7.9 -0.6 0.3 3.0 -1.4 -2.0 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4 -2.0 -0.7 -1.8 -1.0 -3.8 -4.2 -7.2 2.2 0.9 1.1 2.5 1.5 0.7 4.0 -5.3 -0.4 -1.6 -5.6 9.5 0.5 -1.8 -1.3 -3.0 -1.5 1.0 -9.7 0.1 7.4 -6.8 1.6 0.7 -5.4 2.1 1.9 4.5 4.5 2.4 6.2 1.3 -3.3 -1.5 -1.0
2M 0.8 -0.6 -0.4 2.0 6.6 3.2 1.2 2.8 0.8 -3.1 -2.8 -3.0 -0.5 -3.9 -0.9 -5.7 -0.3 -5.5 -4.1 -4.9 0.1 -0.4 2.8 4.8 1.5 -3.7 7.3 -0.2 2.3 -1.3 5.5 11.5 0.9 0.7 2.6 2.6 -2.1 -4.5 -6.0 4.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 10.0 5.4 -1.3 -1.3 0.4 -1.8 -0.4 4.0 -0.3 -10.2 6.9 -4.0
3M -1.1 -3.2 -3.2 -1.0 5.3 2.7 -2.3 0.3 7.8 -7.3 -4.3 -4.4 -1.1 -6.6 0.3 -9.5 -2.4 -8.9 -5.6 -2.8 1.3 -9.0 2.1 3.2 1.6 -2.0 4.8 -5.8 10.6 3.0 13.0 17.9 7.4 6.1 8.8 14.2 2.4 -3.4 -3.2 7.7 5.1 6.4 6.0 8.6 10.2 3.2 4.3 1.5 -0.5 -4.3 10.8 15.7 -5.4 1.7 5.1
6M -0.2 -0.3 -1.1 0.6 0.1 3.3 -0.3 0.7 4.4 -5.5 0.1 -1.8 0.5 5.9 3.9 -3.8 0.2 0.4 -7.7 9.5 -4.9 -3.8 -6.5 -6.4 -5.7 -5.3 -10.1 5.6 -11.9 -9.9 -8.1 7.5 4.1 6.6 9.8 12.6 6.8 -1.0 2.7 2.9 -6.5 -4.2 17.0 22.0 10.7 1.0 2.4 -8.7 -3.1 -2.9 1.6 12.2 2.0 2.0 -4.8
12M 4.2 5.1 7.8 4.1 2.3 -0.3 0.1 -5.1 16.4 0.4 10.8 3.8 8.8 30.8 15.4 1.6 9.3 23.9 4.2 30.8 9.3 -5.0 -8.9 -12.9 -2.9 -7.6 -10.6 -7.7 -12.6 15.8 -8.6 -11.2 0.9 -11.5 -9.2 -4.4 -2.8 -7.3 -21.6 -18.8 -25.6 -19.3 3.0 12.3 -16.4 -0.4 1.4 -14.2 -5.7 1.3 -3.8 23.0 -3.5 18.1 33.2
YTD -4.4 -6.7 -7.3 -1.7 0.3 -0.3 -4.6 0.6 2.0 -10.2 -6.3 -6.8 -4.0 -5.0 -5.0 -7.4 -6.0 -12.3 -7.5 1.0 -1.8 -8.3 3.7 9.4 -2.1 -1.4 11.5 -11.4 6.9 9.5 5.3 21.1 5.2 15.0 23.5 11.8 13.7 4.4 6.6 19.0 -2.3 19.3 23.8 13.9 25.2 7.4 6.5 9.4 9.6 -0.5 13.0 22.4 0.0 -0.6 -7.2
Singapore stocks have struggled to outperform MSCI SEA for some time. Due to the sharp earlier correction, real estate has stood out over the past three months, while cap goods continue to lag. SG telecoms have started to perform recently
* Prices as of 30 April 2014 Source: MSCI, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Reuters, RAVE, Credit Suisse research
The Singapore Reporter
2
08 May 2014
Table of contents SG relative to ASEAN Economy: IP – electronics slowing Economy: PMI above 50, but barely Economy: Net exports dive Market: bounce from lows Market: Agri / CPO have done well Market: P/E close to 5 year averages Market: TIPs catch up done? Market: Short sale monitor HOLT: 'Momentum' has worked over the short term Banks: Strong loans growth Developers: Slowing sales REITs: Spreads compress O&M: Continued semi weakness Commodities: CPO continues up Singapore Exchange Transport: Load factor falls Telecom: increasing 4G penetration Others: COE continues to fall Singapore model portfolio Recent published research
The Singapore Reporter
2 4 5 6 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 18 20 21 22 26 27 28 29 30 31
3
08 May 2014
Economy: IP – electronics slowing Figure 3: Industrial Production (IP), YoY% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
Figure 4: Industrial Production, sa (MoM%) 40
30 20 10 0
Singapore Index of Industrial production increased 12.1% YoY and 6.1% MoM in March 2014 (seasonally adjusted). This continues the improving trend seen since early 2013.
-10 -20
SG IP (YoY growth %)
Jan-14
Jun-13
Apr-12
Nov-12
Sep-11
Jul-10
Feb-11
Dec-09
Oct-08
May-09
Mar-08
Jan-07
Aug-07
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13
-30
SG IP (Seasonally adjusted MoM growth)
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Figure 5: IP – Electronics, YoY%
Figure 6: IP – Biomedical, YoY%
Electronics IP continues to improve YoY, but the growth has decelerated recently. Biomedical IP is typically volatile, but has been relatively flat for some time now
200
100 80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
0
-20
-50
-40
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13
-100
-60
SG Biomedical IP (YoY growth %)
SG Electronics IP (YoY growth %)
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Figure 7: IP – Transport Eng., YoY%
Figure 8: Weightings by cluster General Manufact uring 10%
40 30 20
Electronic s 33%
Transport Engineeri ng 16%
10 0 -10
-20 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13
-30
Precision Engineeri ng 12% Biomedic al 18%
SG Transport Engineering IP (YoY growth %)
Source: CEIC
The Singapore Reporter
Transport Engineering – the third largest component of Singaporean IP has been reasonably strong (up an impressive 29% YoY) and has supported headline IP growth for Singapore
Chemical s 11%
Source: EDB
4
08 May 2014
Economy: PMI above 50, but barely Figure 9: Singapore PMI, seasonally adjusted
While Singapore's Manufacturing PMI (April 2014 of 50.8, seasonally adjusted) has improved slightly from March, it has decelerated significantly from levels seen in late 2013. Of late SG PMI has tracked China PMI more than the strong improvements seen in the US and in the Eurozone
60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44
42
US
China
Eurozone
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
40
Singapore
Source: Bloomberg
SG New Export Orders PMI
Jan-14
Jun-13
Apr-12
Encouragingly, new export order PMI continued to improve (up to 52.5 for April 2014). This seems to have come at the cost of a weaker inventory PMI. GDP data earlier had indicated inventory build in Singapore, which seems to be now translating to exports Nov-12
Feb-11
Sep-11
Jul-10
Dec-09
Oct-08
May-09
Jan-07
Jan-14
Jun-13
40
Nov-12
42
40
Apr-12
44
42
Sep-11
46
44
Feb-11
48
46
Jul-10
50
48
Dec-09
52
50
May-09
54
52
Oct-08
56
54
Mar-08
56
Jan-07
58
Aug-07
58
Mar-08
Figure 11: SG PMI – Inventory
Aug-07
Figure 10: SG PMI – New Export Orders
SG Inventories PMI
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 12: SG PMI – Electronics Industry
Figure 13: SG PMI – Employment
58
56
56
54
54
52
52
50
50
In line with IP data from March, electronics PMI has decelerated in April 2014 (50.40 compared to 51.6 in March) while the employment PMI has slipped to below 50. The latter is in line with recent unemployment numbers.
48
48
46
46
44
44
42
42
The Singapore Reporter
Jan-14
Jun-13
Apr-12
Nov-12
Feb-11
Sep-11
Jul-10
SG Employment PMI
SG Electronics Industry PMI
Source: Bloomberg
Dec-09
Oct-08
May-09
Mar-08
Jan-07
Jan-14
Jun-13
Nov-12
Apr-12
Sep-11
Feb-11
Jul-10
Dec-09
May-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Jan-07
Aug-07
Aug-07
40
40
Source: Bloomberg
5
08 May 2014
Economy: Net exports dive Figure 14: Singapore net exports, YoY%
Figure 15: Contribution of import and export
150%
300%
100%
200% 100%
50%
0%
0%
-100% -50%
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14
-200%
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
-100%
Contribution of import growth Contribution of export growth YoY growth in net exports
YoY Growth in SG trade balance (net exports)
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Figure 16: Contribution of export
Figure 17: Contribution of NODX
30%
40%
20%
30%
Export growth has largely been driven by the non-oil segment (up 7% YoY). NODX, however, has been relatively weak for some time (fell 7% YoY in March 2014). As indicated by the IP / PMI data, Electronics NODX remains soft, falling 16% YoY in March 2014
20%
10%
10%
0%
0% -10%
-20%
-20%
-30%
-30% -40%
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14
-10%
Contribution of non oil export growth Contribution of oil export growth Export growth
Electronic
Non Electronic
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse research
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse research
Figure 18: Contribution of NORX
Figure 19: NODX versus NORX
Chemicals Machinery/Transport NORX
Manufactured Goods Others
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse research
The Singapore Reporter
NODX
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
Mar-98 May-99 Jul-00 Sep-01 Nov-02 Jan-04 Mar-05 May-06 Jul-07 Sep-08 Nov-09 Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
Singapore net exports fell a sharp 51% YoY in March 2014. While gross exports continued to grow (8% YoY in March), the decline was largely due to a sharp (15% YoY increase in imports in March) – which in turn was almost evenly split between oil and non-oil imports
NODX YoY growth
NORX, however, continues to grow sharply (up 19% YoY in March 2014). Historically, Singapore's NODX and NORX have been highly correlated. Over the past few months though, this correlation has broken – perhaps due to a lack of strength in the electronics segment
NORX YoY growth
Source: CEIC
6
08 May 2014
Figure 20: Export by country
Figure 21: Import by country
Singapore's exports to Europe had registered sharp growth recently, but have contracted in March, while imports from Europe have increased significantly in the short term. On trend, both exports to and imports from Asia continue to improve
40%
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
-30%
America
Asia
America
Europe
Asia
Europe
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Figure 22: CPI and MAS core inflation
Figure 23: Contribution of CPI
8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 (1.00) (2.00)
2.0 1.5 1.0
0.5 0.0 -0.5
CPI
Jan-14
MAS Core Inflation
Source: CEIC
Feb-14
Overal CPI
Others
Services*
Food
Private Road Transport
Accomodation
Jan-00 Feb-01 Mar-02 Apr-03 May-04 Jun-05 Jul-06 Aug-07 Sep-08 Oct-09 Nov-10 Dec-11 Jan-13 Feb-14
-1.0
Mar-14
* Recreation + Health Care Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, Credit Suisse research
Figure 24: Distribution of expenditure
Strong net exports continue to drive SG GDP growth. Advance estimates put 1Q2014 GDP growth at 5.1%, slightly below expectations. Within the advance estimates, Goods producing industries (both manufacturing and construction) saw an acceleration of growth, while services growth slowed
25 20 15 10
While headline CPI has increased MoM to 1.2% in March 2014, it remains well below recent levels. Core inflation (at 2% for March 2014) has remained relatively stable, and has inched up since lows seen in April 2013
%
5 0 -5 -10 -15
Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
-20
Private consumption
Govt. consumption
GFCF
Net Exports
Statistical Discrepancy
YoY GDP growth
Change in Inventories
Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse research
The Singapore Reporter
7
08 May 2014
Figure 25: SG Portfolio investment inflows
Figure 26: Portfolio + other investment 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 (20,000) (40,000) (60,000) (80,000) (100,000)
Mar-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Jun-06 Mar-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 Jun-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13
Mar-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Jun-06 Mar-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 Jun-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000)
Portfolio Investment Inflows
Portfolio + Others Investment Inflows
Source: CEIC
While equity / FII inflow data in unavailable, Quarterly Balance of Payments data suggests portfolio inflows into Singapore have been relatively low for some time, and were a small S$0.5 bn in Dec 2013. Portfolio + Other inflow however, continues to grow
Source: CEIC
Figure 27: Industrial production by country YoY (%) Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines India China Taiwan S. Korea -3.6 0.9 0.8 9.9 -1.0 3.5 8.9 -3.2 -2.2 5.1 6.1 -3.9 10.4 9.0 1.5 9.3 -0.9 2.2 2.6 5.6 -7.5 6.9 20.2 -2.5 9.2 -0.4 -0.5 -4.7 3.8 -3.2 3.2 8.9 -1.8 8.9 -0.5 -1.7 2.9 10.7 -4.9 3.5 14.5 2.6 9.7 2.1 1.4 3.5 3.7 -2.8 12.4 17.5 0.4 10.4 -1.0 3.2 9.2 2.3 -2.9 6.2 19.0 2.7 10.2 -0.2 -3.8 8.4 2.2 -4.0 -0.8 21.1 -1.2 10.3 0.8 3.6 6.8 1.4 -10.7 0.7 18.8 -1.3 10.0 -0.2 -0.7 6.4 5.1 -6.3 0.6 23.9 -0.2 9.7 5.6 2.5 4.3 3.5 -5.6 0.9 5.0 0.8 -1.8 -4.3 13.1 6.7 -4.7 1.2 -1.9 6.8 4.3 12.1 -10.4 8.8 3.1
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service
The Singapore Reporter
8
08 May 2014
Market: Bounce from lows Figure 28: Index performance* In local currency
1-Week 0.2% 0.2% -0.6% -1.1% -0.9%
STI KLSE SET JCI PCOMP
2-Week 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% -0.7% 0.6%
1-month 2.4% 1.2% 2.8% 1.5% 4.3%
3-month 7.8% 3.7% 11.0% 9.5% 11.0%
YTD 3.1% 0.2% 8.9% 13.2% 13.9%
12-month -3.1% 9.0% -11.4% -3.9% -5.1%
The STI is up 2.4% for the month, continuing its bounce from under 3,000 levels. On a three-month basis, the STI is up almost 8%, while it is down c.3% over the past twelve months
* Prices as of 30 April 2014 Source: Reuters
Figure 29: Index performance YTD (in USD
Figure 30: Index performance since May
terms)
2013 (in USD terms)
130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80
In USD terms, the STI has underperformed ASEAN countries YTD. However, it still stands out well in performance relative to mid2013 highs
110 100 90 80 70
Source: Reuters, Credit Suisse research
Malaysia Singapore
Apr-14
Jan-14
Feb-14 Mar-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Thailand Phillipines
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Indonesia
Jun-13
Apr-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Mar-14
Malaysia Singapore
50
May-13
Thailand Phillipines
Feb-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Jan-14
Jan-14
60
Indonesia
Source: Reuters, Credit Suisse research
Figure 31: MSCI sector performance* by country (in local currency) MSCI (local
CN
currency)* MTD Cons Disc. (3.9) 1.6 Cons St. 2.9 Energy Financials (4.0) Healthcare (9.1) Industrials (4.3) (8.5) IT (5.6) Materials 5.7 Telecom 0.1 Utilities Total AxJ Rel
YTD (9.7) (5.5) (4.8) (11.8) (7.1) (11.4) (1.8) (5.2) (6.6) (2.2)
(2.4) (8.1) (2.3) (6.8)
HK
ID
MTD YTD MTD YTD (4.5) (10.1) 0.8 12.2 1.2 13.5 12.3 (0.3) 4.0 (0.6) 2.3 22.8 5.5 23.6 2.7 0.5 3.0 16.7 14.5 32.8 (6.0) 6.9 2.5 11.9 4.2 5.2 3.7 3.1 3.9 19.0 2.4 2.5
(1.5) (0.3)
1.9 2.0
IN MTD 2.2 (3.3) 0.7 0.4 7.1 (0.2) (0.9) (4.0) 0.3 (1.0)
KR
MY
PH
YTD MTD YTD MTD YTD MTD 8.3 (0.8) (2.5) (0.4) (2.9) 0.6 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.4 1.6 2.8 5.8 5.7 7.0 (2.5) (8.2) 10.5 0.2 1.6 2.7 (0.9) 5.5 6.4 0.4 5.8 4.2 3.9 14.7 0.9 0.8 (0.6) 0.6 2.7 (3.9) (0.4) 1.3 2.1 1.9 4.1 (2.1) (1.5) (7.1) 1.2 0.8 1.7 2.7 3.6 (1.9) 2.4 11.6 0.1 0.7 (1.6)
15.1 (0.1) 4.0 16.4 (0.0) 5.2
(1.3) (3.4) (1.2) (2.2)
0.9 1.0
(0.4) 0.8
3.5 3.6
SG
TH
TW
YTD MTD YTD MTD YTD MTD (0.6) 0.5 1.2 1.1 11.8 (2.2) 29.1 1.0 11.4 (3.5) (5.0) (0.8) 3.3 2.4 (2.1) 18.8 3.8 0.6 4.2 14.6 (3.4) 11.3 26.0 0.9 12.3 0.5 (1.2) 0.1 11.5 (2.1) 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.5 5.8 4.4 4.0 5.9 16.4 1.1 6.4 2.3 10.3 14.1 15.3
2.8 2.9
1.3 2.5
2.9 3.0
8.2 9.4
0.3 0.4
YTD (1.8) (1.1) (7.2) (8.6) (6.3) (4.8) 11.8 (5.3) 0.6 3.7 4.9
* Prices as of 30 April 2014 Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service. *Using MSCI Sector country-wise indices
The Singapore Reporter
9
08 May 2014
Market: Agri / CPO have done well Figure 32: Singapore market sector absolute performance* Absolute performance 1W 2W -0.7 -1.4 -0.2 0.1 1.9 0.4 -2.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 3.1 -0.7 -3.7 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 1.2 -2.1 -0.9 2.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 1.0 -4.5 -0.3 0.9 -0.6 1.2
Agri - CPO Agri-trader/diversified Banks Diversified Financials Insurance Real Estate Development Residential REITs Retail REITs Office REITs Industrial REITs Hotel & Resort REITs Health Care REITs Diversified REITs Building Construction Gaming/Tourism Hotel operator Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Media Electronics Technology Telecommunication Services Offshore services Shipyard / Operator Other Cap goods Energy - E&P Materials Industrial Conglomerates Utilities Water services Transportation
* Prices as of 30 April 2014.
-0.3 -0.9 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 2.0 -2.4 0.7 -0.5 0.1 0.7 1.4 -0.1 -4.3 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.9 -6.5 -4.7 1.9 0.9 -3.3 1.9 -0.3 -5.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.6
3W
1M
2M
3M
6M
12M
YTD
0.4 -0.6 0.8 -0.4 1.3 6.4 -1.2 1.4 2.9 1.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 -2.1 0.8 4.5 -1.4 1.3 4.4 -0.7 -3.4 -1.9 3.9 1.8 -2.8 3.2 -2.4 -7.0 0.5 2.2 6.4 2.7
2.4 0.5 2.5 -0.2 1.8 0.3 0.4 3.9 6.0 2.9 4.2 3.7 3.4 -1.4 -0.7 7.7 3.9 0.4 5.4 -0.2 0.7 -0.4 3.9 2.7 -1.3 8.1 -3.6 -6.8 -0.7 0.5 0.7 2.8
9.0 7.2 3.0 1.4 5.0 1.5 3.9 4.1 5.5 5.5 5.3 9.2 4.1 7.0 -0.9 2.5 17.9 5.4 3.8 1.0 15.3 0.6 6.4 2.0 0.5 10.0 -2.8 4.4 5.1 2.5 3.2 5.8
20.0 18.4 5.0 2.1 8.5 5.0 1.3 5.6 8.8 7.4 5.9 11.5 7.3 8.5 -3.2 6.8 29.7 5.3 9.0 5.0 17.2 3.7 9.3 7.3 1.3 15.4 -0.3 15.3 9.8 7.6 6.8 4.7
9.4 8.3 -0.5 -3.3 5.1 -3.2 -3.0 -1.5 4.3 -0.5 0.0 4.4 -0.6 7.6 -12.0 2.6 26.3 -2.0 -3.6 0.3 28.8 6.6 1.0 15.3 -4.0 15.6 -32.8 34.9 8.2 4.1 27.3 -0.4
11.1 7.2 -2.6 -5.8 7.4 -15.0 -8.6 -16.4 -13.0 -15.3 -20.9 -14.7 -14.9 -11.4 -12.2 -2.5 -27.9 -6.8 -2.7 -4.5 175.0 0.1 -3.5 18.2 -0.3 27.4 n.a 21.4 -6.1 4.5 33.6 -4.6
10.8 8.5 -1.3 -3.2 6.9 -0.4 1.9 3.6 6.2 4.7 3.2 8.1 8.7 5.4 -10.4 -2.8 26.8 5.3 3.4 1.7 32.4 1.1 4.4 1.0 -5.2 15.9 -25.6 20.9 12.0 3.3 11.9 0.6
Source: Reuters, RAVE, Credit Suisse research
Figure 33: Singapore market sector relative performance* (relative to STI) Relative performance to STI 1W 2W 3W Agri - CPO Agri-trader/diversified Banks Diversified Financials Insurance Real Estate Development Residential REITs Retail REITs Office REITs Industrial REITs Hotel & Resort REITs Health Care REITs Diversified REITs Building Construction Gaming/Tourism Hotel operator Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Media Electronics Technology Telecommunication Services Offshore services Shipyard / Operator Other Cap goods Energy - E&P Materials Industrial Conglomerates Utilities Water services Transportation
* Prices as of 30 April 2014.
The Singapore Reporter
Stocks in several subsectors in Singapore market (like the Agri-CPO, Construction, Consumer discretionary, Conglomerates) have risen materially over the past two months, though CPO / agri stocks have been flattish recently. Several REIT sub sectors have also delivered respectable returns
-0.9 -1.6 -0.4 -0.1 1.7 0.2 -2.6 0.4 -0.7 -0.5 0.8 2.9 -0.9 -3.9 -2.0 -1.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.9 1.0 -2.3 -1.1 1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 0.8 -4.7 -0.5 0.7 -0.8 1.0
-0.7 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.8 1.6 -2.8 0.4 -0.9 -0.2 0.3 1.0 -0.5 -4.6 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 -6.9 -5.1 1.5 0.6 -3.6 1.6 -0.7 -5.5 -0.2 -0.4 2.5 1.2
-1.3 -2.4 -0.9 -2.1 -0.4 4.7 -2.9 -0.3 1.2 -0.5 1.7 -0.4 -1.6 -3.8 -0.9 2.8 -3.1 -0.4 2.6 -2.4 -5.1 -3.7 2.2 0.0 -4.5 1.5 -4.1 -8.7 -1.2 0.5 4.7 1.0
1M
2M
3M
6M
12M
YTD
0.1 -1.9 0.1 -2.6 -0.6 -2.1 -2.0 1.6 3.6 0.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 -3.8 -3.1 5.3 1.5 -2.0 3.0 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 1.5 0.3 -3.6 5.7 -6.0 -9.1 -3.1 -1.8 -1.7 0.4
4.0 2.3 -1.9 -3.5 0.0 -3.4 -1.1 -0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 4.2 -0.9 2.0 -5.8 -2.5 12.9 0.5 -1.1 -4.0 10.4 -4.3 1.5 -3.0 -4.5 5.1 -7.7 -0.6 0.2 -2.4 -1.7 0.8
12.2 10.6 -2.8 -5.8 0.6 -2.9 -6.6 -2.2 1.0 -0.5 -1.9 3.6 -0.6 0.7 -11.0 -1.1 21.9 -2.6 1.2 -2.8 9.4 -4.1 1.4 -0.6 -6.5 7.5 -8.2 7.5 2.0 -0.2 -1.1 -3.2
7.7 6.6 -2.2 -5.0 3.4 -4.9 -4.7 -3.2 2.6 -2.1 -1.7 2.8 -2.3 5.9 -13.7 0.9 24.6 -3.7 -5.3 -1.4 27.1 5.0 -0.6 13.6 -5.7 13.9 -34.5 33.2 6.5 2.4 25.6 -2.1
14.2 10.3 0.4 -2.7 10.5 -11.9 -5.5 -13.3 -9.9 -12.2 -17.8 -11.6 -11.9 -8.3 -9.1 0.5 -24.8 -3.7 0.4 -1.4 178.1 3.2 -0.4 21.2 2.8 30.5 n.a 24.5 -3.0 7.6 36.7 -1.5
7.7 5.4 -4.3 -6.2 3.8 -3.4 -1.1 0.6 3.1 1.6 0.1 5.1 5.6 2.4 -13.5 -5.9 23.7 2.2 0.4 -1.4 29.3 -2.0 1.3 -2.1 -8.3 12.8 -28.7 17.9 8.9 0.2 8.9 -2.4
Fewer sub-sectors have outperformed the market – Agri-CPO, Consumer discretionary, Materials, Building Construction are examples. Smaller capital goods companies have done well while the large cap ones have generally lagged. Water services names have outperformed recently
Source: Reuters, RAVE, Credit Suisse research
10
08 May 2014
Market: P/E close to 5-year average Figure 34: MSCI SG – P/B (x)
Figure 35: MSCI SG – forward P/E (x)
2.6
24
2.4
22
2.2
20
MSCI Singapore currently trades at 13.7 times forward EPS, which is close to five year averages. The slight discount on headline valuations that had been created by the market fall early in the year is now largely eroded.
18
2.0
16
1.8
14
1.6
Jan-14
Jan-12
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-04
Jan-00
Jan-14
Jan-12
MSCI Singapore - forward PE (x)
MSCI Singapore - Trailing PB (x)
1.0
4
0.0
Jan-08
Jan-14
MSCI Singapore - ROE (%)
Jan-12
6
Jan-10
2.0
Jan-06
3.0
8
Jan-04
4.0
10
Jan-02
12
Jan-00
5.0
Jan-12
6.0
14
Jan-10
16
Jan-08
7.0
Jan-06
Figure 37: MSCI SG – Dividend yield (x)
18
Jan-04
Figure 36: MSCI SG – RoE (%)
Jan-02
Source: MSCI, Factset
Jan-00
Source: MSCI, Factset
MSCI Singapore RoE has continued to fall, and at 10.3% is now lower than the 'steady state' 04-06 levels. Low valuations, and increasing pay-outs mean dividend yield for the market has remained high, at c.3.4%
Jan-14
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-04
Jan-06
6
Jan-02
8
1.0
Jan-00
10
1.2
Jan-02
12
1.4
MSCI Singapore - Dividend yield (%)
Source: MSCI, Factset
Source: MSCI, Factset
Figure 38: SG consensus EPS – 2014E
Figure 39: MSCI SG – forward EPS by
Forward EPS for the market continue to be downgraded. Current 2014 EPS estimates for MSCI SG are 7.2% above 2013, but are only 3.1% above 2012 actuals. Forward EPS for most sectors though, have been upgraded through last month, with the largest increases in Banks
sector 105
-2.3% YTD (EPS 2014E)
100
4
YTD (%)
MTD (%)
3
2 1
95
0
-1
90
-2 85
-3
Source: IBES
The Singapore Reporter
Div. financials
Cons. Disc.
Real Estate
Cap goods
MSCI Sing
Telecom
Transport
Nov-13 EPS14
Cons Staples
EPS13
May-13
Nov-12
May-12
Nov-11
May-11
Nov-10
EPS12
Banks
-4
80
Source: MSCI, Datastream
11
08 May 2014
Market: TIPs catch up done? Figure 40: TIPs excess return (in USD) versus SG+MY and US 10-year bond yields 105
1.00
100
1.50
95 2.00
90 85
2.50
80 3.00
75
TIPS cumulative excess return (in USD) over SG+MY
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
3.50
Apr-13
70
There is strong historical (inverse) correlation between the outperformance of TIP over SG+MY and US 10-year bond yields. TIP had fallen sharply late 2013, and have now bounced back. On this measure, there seems little room for TIP to outperform further
US 10yr bond yield (RHS - inverted)
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, RAVE, Reuters, Credit Suisse research
Figure 41: Price performance* – stocks with market cap >= S$1 bn Top 5 HPL PRU MRT WP OHL
MTD chg +25.7% +25.0% +19.6% +13.9% +13.1%
Top 5 CVM UENV OHL JCNC OSIM
YTD chg +223.5% +44.2% +36.0% +30.5% +26.1%
Bottom 5 UENV CVM AFP GZI STRTR
MTD chg -12.1% -8.3% -7.0% -5.0% -3.8%
Bottom 5 EZRA SGA ROWS FNN GENS
YTD chg -23.6% -14.2% -12.3% -12.0% -11.4%
* Prices as of 30 April 2014.
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service
Figure 42: Price performance* – stocks with market cap < S$1 bn Top 5 JKTH AFH CCF ARVV SLIAN
MTD chg +253.6% +130.8% +130.8% +75.0% +58.7%
Top 5 GSS JKTH AUSG SWHL JPH
YTD chg +374.1% +182.9% +140.7% +138.5% +134.0%
Bottom 5 BLUM ASCT ALBD SMOON ICP
MTD chg -53.3% -50.0% -50.0% -50.0% -50.0%
Bottom 5 STX CCM CHC ALBD INN
YTD chg -88.4% -87.7% -76.7% -75.4% -67.7%
* Prices as of 30 April 2014.
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service
The Singapore Reporter
For the month of April, HPL, PRU, MRT, WP and OHL are up the most (amongst stocks with market cap of more than SG$1 bn). Stocks such as UENV, CVM, AFP, GZI and STRTR have fallen the most
Amongst smaller caps, stocks such as JKTH, AFH, CCF, ARVV and SLIAN have risen the most, while BLUM, ASCT, ALBD, SMOON and ICP have fallen the most
12
08 May 2014
Figure 43: Volume watch* Stocks with market cap >= S$1 bn Top 5 volume watch GZI CVM PRU DTAC PETRA
MTD chg -5.0% -8.3% +25.0% +3.4% -3.8%
YTD chg -5.0% +223.5% +25.0% +9.7% +10.2%
Curr vs avg 3M (x) 62.0 29.9 23.2 12.3 6.1
MTD chg -8.2% -11.1% +1.8% +3.4% +7.7%
YTD chg -13.3% -4.8% -0.9% +15.4% +0.0%
Curr vs avg 3M (x) 35.5 29.1 27.2 21.7 21.5
Stocks with market cap < S$1 bn Top 5 volume watch CFM UCOM NBL VGOC GDS
Trading volumes for stocks like GZI, CVM, PRU, DTAC and PETRA have been well above average (amongst stocks with market cap of more than SG$1 bn), while CFM, UCOM, NBL, VGOC and GDS have seen increased activity amongst the smaller caps
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service
* Prices as of 30 April 2014.
Figure 44: Short interest as a percentage of total turnover has a high correlation with the level of the STI FSSTI
Short sell as % of total turnover, 7day moving average [RHS] [Inverted]
3,350
4.0
3,300
9.0
3,250
The STI continues its negative correlation with the level of gross short sales in the market. Short sales at end April were 24.2% less than that at end March
3,200 14.0
3,150 3,100
19.0
3,050 3,000
24.0
2,950
Apr-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Dec-13
Nov-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
29.0
Jul-13
2,900
Source: SGX, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse research
The Singapore Reporter
13
08 May 2014
Market: Short sale monitor Figure 45: List of stocks (market cap >S$1 mn) with increasing short sale, and where recent activity is above six-month averages
Company
RIC
Yanlord Land
YNLG.SI
NR
1.14
Short sell to total turnover* (%) (S$) (S$ mn) 6M avg Highest of the past wk n.a 2,212 14 75
OSIM
OSIL.SI
O
2.82
3.20
2,124
18
50
18.2
5.7
35.6
12.0
OUEHT
OUER.SI
O
0.89
1.05
1,165
7
46
15.3
1.0
7.0
3.0
CDL
CTDM.SI
O
10.78
12.11
9,802
33
43
15.6
1.2
7.7
7.2
SGX
SGXL.SI
N
6.91
7.75
7,405
17
43
22.1
8.1
37.9
-0.3
HPHT
HPHT.SI
O
0.68
0.82
7,398
28
40
26.9
0.7
2.7
4.6
SIA
SIAL.SI
N
10.28
10.80
12,334
21
39
26.6
0.9
3.3
-0.9
Super Group
SPGP.SI
NR
3.47
n.a
1,935
13
29
21.3
3.8
18.8
0.6
MINT
MAPI.SI
O
1.47
1.68
2,485
7
29
15.0
1.2
8.6
5.5
Great Eastern
GELA.SI
O
19.15
25.00
9,064
9
29
12.3
1.6
14.3
1.5
SPH REIT
SPHR.SI
N
1.00
1.05
2,499
7
28
20.7
1.1
5.4
2.0
Petra Foods
PEFO.SI
NR
3.59
n.a
2,194
10
27
25.6
5.1
21.6
-3.8
NOL
NEPS.SI
U
1.01
0.95
2,608
12
26
61.9
1.0
1.1
2.0
ST Engineering
STEG.SI
U
3.84
3.40
11,976
13
25
19.0
5.3
28.4
0.0
SingTel
STEL.SI
N
3.77
3.90
60,107
18
24
16.5
2.4
15.0
4.9
Dairy Farm
DAIR.SI
NR
10.64
n.a
17,967
6
21
27.7
9.9
37.6
4.8
DBS
DBSM.SI
O
17.02
19.30
41,711
14
19
10.8
1.1
10.6
4.8
OUE Ltd
OVES.SI
O
2.29
2.95
2,248
8
17
25.2
0.6
10.8
1.3
CDL REIT
CDLT.SI
O
1.74
2.00
1,696
11
16
15.8
1.1
7.0
8.5
MLT
MAPL.SI
O
1.13
1.42
2,767
3
15
14.5
1.2
8.2
5.3
M1
MONE.SI
O
3.37
3.64
3,128
6
15
17.8
7.6
44.0
-3.2
Parkwaylife REIT PWLR.SI
NR
2.50
n.a
1,513
7
14
20.8
1.5
7.1
2.9
Bukit Sembawang BSES.SI
NR
6.00
n.a
1,553
12
13
Far East
FAEH.SI
NR
0.87
n.a
1,538
4
13
16.7
0.9
6.0
7.9
Goodpack
GPAK.SI
NR
2.37
n.a
1,330
6
12
18.7
2.7
15.5
12.1
Ezion
EZHL.SI
NR
2.25
n.a
2,938
5
12
10.4
2.1
23.3
5.1
Hongkong Land
HKLD.SI
O
6.73
8.64
19,776
9
11
18.4
0.5
3.2
8.2
CapitaRetail
CRCT.SI
NR
1.47
n.a
1,202
4
11
16.2
1.0
7.3
5.7
Wheelock Prop.
WPSL.SI
NR
1.79
n.a
2,142
7
10
19.0
0.7
4.0
13.9
Ho Bee Land
HBEE.SI
NR
2.26
n.a
1,666
5
9
22.4
0.6
2.9
5.0
MAGIC
MAPE.SI
NR
0.86
n.a
2,295
5
9
19.0
0.8
5.0
3.7
Vard Holdings
VARD.SI
U
1.03
0.80
1,210
6
8
10.6
1.0
13.9
-3.5
Hotel Prop.
HPPS.SI
NR
3.59
n.a
1,856
3
4
Rating
Price (S$) [7 May]
TP Mkt cap
Consensus (FY2014) PE (x) 9.1
Price perf.* PB (x) ROE (%) MTD (abs., %) 0.6 6.8 7.9
7.9
25.7
* Prices as of 30 April 2014. Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, IBES, Credit Suisse estimates for covered companies
The Singapore Reporter
14
08 May 2014
HOLT®: 'Momentum' has worked over the short term Figure 46: HOLT® Composite Factor Performance
Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Singapore Taiwan Thailand
1 Month Operation Momentum Valuation (2.4%) (2.5%) 2.8% (0.9%) (2.5%) 2.6% 1.8% (2.2%) (2.5%) 1.3% 3.4% 4.0% (0.0%) 2.5% 1.4% 0.2% (1.4%) 2.8% (0.1%) (0.4%) 0.0% (3.5%) (0.4%) (1.5%) (2.6%) 2.4% 0.6% 5.7% (0.6%) 5.4% 0.3% (3.3%) (3.6%)
Overall (0.6%) (0.5%) (2.3%) 5.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% (3.2%) (0.7%) 6.9% (0.9%)
3 Months Operation Momentum Valuation 3.7% 0.4% (0.7%) (1.7%) (2.5%) 4.5% 3.1% (5.3%) 3.1% (6.8%) (2.9%) 3.1% (8.0%) 8.8% 10.7% 1.5% (7.0%) 4.7% (1.1%) 1.5% 4.8% (2.5%) 0.3% 2.3% (2.4%) 3.5% 2.1% 7.1% (0.1%) 6.4% 4.7% (7.6%) (2.5%)
Overall 5.1% 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 6.4% (1.1%) 3.8% (0.3%) 2.2% 10.7% 0.5%
6 Months Operation Momentum Valuation 2.7% 7.5% (2.3%) (2.8%) 1.6% (4.4%) 1.6% (2.3%) (5.4%) (11.7%) (2.4%) 10.7% 2.9% (3.4%) 17.9% 1.1% (2.5%) 4.6% (2.5%) 1.9% 1.4% (2.1%) 7.2% (3.3%) 2.2% 7.7% 4.9% 6.9% 6.1% 7.5% 5.6% (12.1%) 6.5%
Overall 8.0% (2.8%) (0.9%) 1.2% 9.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 10.1% 15.6% 6.1%
12 Months Operation Momentum Valuation 4.3% 20.8% 0.6% (9.4%) 8.9% (8.1%) 4.1% 18.6% (9.3%) (11.1%) 3.4% 14.1% (4.0%) (18.0%) 29.5% 2.7% 1.3% 2.5% (7.0%) (0.7%) 3.5% (8.7%) 12.8% 1.3% 4.9% 7.7% 4.9% 0.4% 4.5% 2.4% 11.7% (0.1%) 18.6%
Overall 17.8% (11.0%) 5.6% 5.3% 4.8% 6.1% 6.5% 0.7% 14.2% 8.5% 18.1%
Source: CS HOLT®
Figure 47: Detail HOLT® factor performance for Singapore Singapore Operation CFROI FY0 Operations Composite Mom entum Trailing Return 1 month Trailing Return 12 months CFROI Key Momentum (01 to 4 wk) CFROI Key Momentum (01 to 13wk) Momentum Composite Risk Volatility historical 90-day Leverage at Market USD Market Capitalization (bil) Valuation Economic Earnings Yield Price % Change to Best Price/Earnings Ratio FY1 Price / Sales Ratio Dividend Yield Economic Price / Book Ratio Valuation Composite Balanced Overall Composite
From End Mar 2014 1 Month Q1 / Q5
From End Jan 2014 3 Months Q1 / Q5
From End Oct 2013 6 Months Q1 / Q5
From End Apr 2013 12 Months Q1 / Q5
-3.0% -2.6%
-2.0% -2.4%
4.2% 2.2%
4.9% 4.9%
-2.3% -2.3% -2.3% 2.2% 2.4%
-2.6% -4.1% -1.6% 3.9% 3.5%
-5.7% 1.0% 3.5% 8.0% 7.7%
-11.5% 4.8% 5.5% 8.9% 7.7%
-0.2% -2.8% -2.7%
-0.7% -4.5% -3.8%
3.7% 0.2% -5.5%
3.6% 6.1% -9.0%
-0.2% 1.7% -1.9% -0.5% 0.4% 3.1% 0.6%
0.3% 2.6% 4.3% 9.2% -2.0% 7.4% 2.1%
7.1% 4.1% 7.0% 5.2% 2.2% 1.4% 4.9%
4.4% 3.1% 17.0% 12.2% -2.7% 2.0% 4.9%
-0.7%
2.2%
10.1%
14.2%
On CS HOLT®, the 'Momentum' trading style has worked best in Singapore over the last 1/3 months, while a focus on 'Operations' has done better on a 3/6/12 month basis
Source: CS HOLT®
The Singapore Reporter
15
08 May 2014
Banks: Strong loans growth Anand Swaminathan, 65 6212 3012 /
[email protected] Figure 48: DBU+ACU loans: component-wise loan growth (YoY%) 50
Total system loans grew 17.3% YoY in March, driven by strong growth in business and personal loans. Housing loan growth though, continued to soften – growing 7.8% YoY in March 2014
YoY growth
40 30 20
10 0 -10
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
-20
Business
Housing
Personal
Total loans
Source: MAS, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 49: Singapore banking system
Figure 50: System (DBU+ACU) loans
loan-deposit ratio (%)
versus deposit growth (YoY%)
Dec-10
Mar-14
Loans YoY
Dec-13
DBU+ACU Dec-12
Oct-12
ACU Dec-11
May-13
DBU
Mar-12
40
Jan-11
50
Aug-11
60
Jun-10
70
Apr-09
82
74
Nov-09
96
Sep-08
87
90
92
91
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10
Jul-07
98 97
95
100
108
Feb-08
107
110
80
109
Dec-06
120
Deposits grew 6.9% YoY in March 2014, well below the continued strong growth in loans – which grew 17.3% YoY. As a result, DBU+ACU LDR stood at 108% in March
Deposits YoY
Source: MAS, Credit Suisse estimates
Source: MAS, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 51: Singapore banking system
Figure 52: HK banking system trade
(ACU only) loans to East Asia (YoY%)
finance loan growth (YoY%)
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
-10% -20%
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
-30%
ACU non bank loans to East Asia YoY growth
Source: MAS
The Singapore Reporter
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
50%
Trade finance activity continues its strong growth – as evidenced by data on ACU non-bank loans to East Asia, and by similar strength in Hong Kong system trade finance data
HK system trade finance loan growth (YoY)
Source: HKMA, Credit Suisse research
16
08 May 2014
Figure 53: Singapore – indicative savings/time deposit rates offered by banks Savings SIBOR
6 mth 0.44
SGD 12 mth 0.57
24 mth
36 mth
DBS UOB OCBC
0.05-0.250 0.05-0.225 0.05-0.550
0.150 1.000 0.150
0.250 1.080 1.080
0.550 0.550 0.550
0.650 0.650
HSBC STAN Citi ANZ
0.100 0.15-1.250 0.150 0.700
0.230 0.200 0.100 0.900
0.280 0.350 0.100 1.100
0.400 0.100
0.420 0.200
0.800 0.19-0.50
0.650 0.550
0.900 0.850
1.200
0.25-0.475 0.1 0.15-0.35
0.850 0.600 0.500
1.120 1.000 0.800
0.725 1.350 1.100
CIMB Maybank BOC ICICI SBI
USD 6 mth 0.38
RMB/CNH 12 mth 6 mth 0.64
12 mth
0.160 0.800 0.005
0.085 0.225 1.000
1.615 1.150 1.650
1.855 1.250 1.900
0.000 0.200 0.500 0.900
0.000 0.250 0.110 1.000
2.130 1.900 2.550 2.300
2.280 2.000
0.628 0.400
0.998
1.350 0.725 1.600 1.250
0.625 1.100 1.166
1.000 2.000 1.660
2.500
3.000
Singapore deposit rates continue to inch up
2.500
For equivalent deposits size of S$100k or above Last update as of January 2014 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
Figure 54: SG Money Supply M3
Figure 55: SG Money Supply M1 versus STI 35%
60%
30%
40%
25%
20%
20%
10%
0%
15%
5%
-20%
10%
-40%
5%
-60%
0%
20% 15%
0%
Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13
-5%
M3 growth
Source: CEIC
The Singapore Reporter
May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
80%
25%
Money supply (M3) growth has been very weak in Singapore (Mar 14 up 2% YoY) – and is close to decade lows now. This has likely hurt deposit growth for banks. Post the GFC, the STI has trended with changes in M1
STI growth
M1 growth (RHS)
Source: CEIC, Reuters
17
08 May 2014
Developers: Slowing sales Yvonne Voon, 65 6212 3026 /
[email protected] Figure 56: Non-landed (ex. EC) sales
Figure 57: Percentage of secondary transactions by buyers’ country of origin
4,500
500%
4,000
400%
3,500
% 50
300%
40
2,500
200%
30
2,000
100%
3,000
1,500
0%
1,000
20 10
-
-200%
0
New Sale Sub-sales
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
-100%
Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13
500
Re Sale Total YoY (RHS)
Source: URA Realis, Credit Suisse estimates
Total developer sales fell 83% YoY in March 2014, with declines across new, re-sale and sub-sales. Foreign buying from key major geographies continues to remain slow; with Chinese / Indonesian purchases down 62/96% YoY
China India
Malaysia Indonesia
Source: URA
Figure 58: Price indices of various sectors
URA data suggests price indices are either tapering off, or are starting to decline. The Industrial price index continues to inch up
Index 230 210
190 170 150 130 110 90 70
Mar/90 Dec/90 Sep/91 Jun/92 Mar/93 Dec/93 Sep/94 Jun/95 Mar/96 Dec/96 Sep/97 Jun/98 Mar/99 Dec/99 Sep/00 Jun/01 Mar/02 Dec/02 Sep/03 Jun/04 Mar/05 Dec/05 Sep/06 Jun/07 Mar/08 Dec/08 Sep/09 Jun/10 Mar/11 Dec/11 Sep/12 Jun/13 Mar/14
50
Resi
Office (Central)
Retail (Central)
Industrial
Source: URA
Figure 59: Rental indices of various sectors
Amongst the rental indices, the Residential and Retail (central) data continues to decelerate, while Office (Central) and Industrial rents have continued to remain strong
Index 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70
Mar-90 Dec-90 Sep-91 Jun-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Sep-94 Jun-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14
50
Resi
Office (central)
Retail (central)
Industrial
Source: URA
The Singapore Reporter
18
08 May 2014
Figure 60: Developer sales Units 4,000
300%
3,500
250%
3,000
Developer sales for March fell 83% YoY (though off a high base). Take-up rates continued to decline, and were at 66% for March 2014
200%
2,500 2,000
150%
1,500
100%
1,000
50%
500
Launched in current month
Sold in current month
Mar/14
Jan/14
Nov/13
Sep/13
Jul/13
May/13
Mar/13
Jan/13
Nov/12
Sep/12
Jul/12
May/12
Mar/12
Jan/12
Nov/11
Sep/11
Jul/11
May/11
Mar/11
Jan/11
0%
Nov/10
0
Takeup % [rhs]
Source: URA, Credit Suisse research
Figure 61: URA residential and HDB resale
Figure 62: Prime (CCR), mass-market
prices
(OCR), mid-market (RCR) price index
240
Index 220
200
Index, 4Q98=100
200
160
180
120
160
80
140
40
Both the URA private residential and the URA HDB resale price index declined MoM in March. CCR and OCR regions continue to see relatively large price downtrends. RCR prices, which had bucked the trend earlier, have also come off a little bit recently
120 0 Mar/93 Mar/96 Mar/99 Mar/02 Mar/05 Mar/08 Mar/11 Mar/14
URA Private Residential Price Index HDB Resale Price Index
Source: URA, HDB
The Singapore Reporter
100 Mar/04
Dec/05
Sep/07
CCR
Jun/09 OCR
Mar/11
Dec/12 RCR
CCR: Core Central Region; RCR: Rest of Central Region; OCR: Outside Central Region. Source: URA
19
08 May 2014
REITs: Spreads compress Yvonne Voon, 65 6212 3026 /
[email protected]
Figure 63: Average room rates (ARRs)
Figure 64: Industry REVPAR versus visitor
versus occupancy
arrivals
S$ 340
% 95
300
90 85
260
80 220
75
mn 1.6
1.4
250
1.2
200
1.0
150
0.8
0.6
100
0.4
50
0.2
0
0.0
Jun-90 Mar-92 Dec-93 Sep-95 Jun-97 Mar-99 Dec-00 Sep-02 Jun-04 Mar-06 Dec-07 Sep-09 Jun-11 Mar-13
Jan-14
May-13
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-11
Jan-10
Sep-10
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-08
65 May-07
140
Industry ARR (S$) - LHS Industry occupancy (%) - RHS
REVPAR
Visitor arrivals
Source: STB, Credit Suisse research
Source: STB, Credit Suisse research
Figure 65: S-REITs yield spread over ten-
Figure 66: S-REITs yield spread versus
year government bonds
regional REITs
% 12.0
% 7 6.1
Yield spread
10.0
5.9 4.5
5
3.7
8.0
3.4
2.4
3
3.69 3.47
2.0
4.1 2.3 2.1
6.0 4.0
5.5 3.9 3.2
2.8
1.9
2.9 2.6
2.6
1.6
0.6
1
S-REIT yield spread over ten-year government bonds decreased 1.9 bp MoM. Amongst comparable assets in the region, SG REIT yield spread continues to remain relatively high
0.6
0.3
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
The Singapore Reporter
Japan
UK
10 yr bond
Spread
REIT yields
10 yr bond
Spread
Australia
REIT yields
10 yr bond
Spread
Hong Kong Malaysia
REIT yields
10 yr bond
Spread
REIT yields
10 yr bond
Spread
Singapore
10 yr bond Spread REIT yields
Subprime period
REIT yields
S-REITs vs 10yr Govt Normalised avg.
10 yr bond
0.0 Jul-02 Jul-04 Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12
REIT yields
-1 Spread
Jan-06
70
Sep-06
180
S$ 300
Average room rates decreased 2.7% MoM in March, while occupancy rates for March decreased 2% MoM as well. Industry Revpar decreased 5.5% MoM in March, and were +2.9% YoY
USA
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
20
08 May 2014
O&M: Continued semi weakness Gerald Wong, CFA, 65 6212 3037 /
[email protected]
Figure 67: Jackup utilisations / rates (%)
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50
($)
Figure 68: Semi utilisations / rates 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
Jan-02 Feb-03 Mar-04 Apr-05 May-06 Jun-07 Jul-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Oct-11 Nov-12 Dec-13 Avg Day Rate
($)
450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000
100,000 50,000 -
Avg Day Rate
Utilization
Utilization
Source: ODS Petrodata, Credit Suisse research
Source: ODS Petrodata, Credit Suisse research
Figure 69:Drillship utilisation / rates
Figure 70: Rig orders won by yard country
40
100,000
20
Jan-02 Feb-03 Mar-04 Apr-05 May-06 Jun-07 Jul-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Oct-11 Nov-12 Dec-13
-
Avg Day Rate
0
01 8
Utilization
Source: ODS Petrodata, Credit Suisse research
Singapore
13 41
China
45
20
17
14 2 5 6 31 33 16 4 22 11 8
Korea
2014
200,000
29 14 9 7 9 8 4 13 6 16 17 11 7 10 33 23 19 17
2013
60
10
2012
300,000
Others
Source: ODS-Petrodata, Credit Suisse research
Figure 71: YTD order wins by KEP and SMM Keppel Orders in 2014 Date 6-Feb-14 13-Feb-14 3-Mar-14 17-Mar-14
Value Value Ex. Rate Description (US$m) (S$m) Imp 218 277 1.27 1 x KFELS B Class Jackup 650 819 1.26 3 x KFELS B Class Jackup 500 635 1.27 1 x KFELS N Plus Jackup 1 x fabrication of an external turret mooring system 1.26 for an FPSO, 2 x ice-class supply vessels and 1 x Newbuild 111 140 ice-class multi-purpose duty-rescue vessel, 2 x tugs Type
Delivery
Owner
Newbuild Newbuild Newbuild
3Q15 2H16 1Q17
UMW Oil & Gas Fecon International Corp TS Offshore
1Q15, 2015, 3Q14
SOFEC, Bumi Armada, KSP Towage
Total
1,479
Global drillship utilisation and day rates remain high and stable
4 18
2011
80
2010
400,000
2009
100
2008
500,000
2007
120
2006
600,000
2005
($)
2004
(%)
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50
Global jackup utilisation rates remain high, with jackup day rates stable MoM. Semi-submersible utilisations continue to fall, though this has not yet shown up in day-rates
Jan-02 Feb-03 Mar-04 Apr-05 May-06 Jun-07 Jul-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Oct-11 Nov-12 Dec-13
-
(%)
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50
Options
Keppel and SMM have won S$1,871/1,568 mn in new orders YTD
1,871
Sembcorp Marine Orders in 2014 Date 26-Feb-14 27-Feb-14 Total
Type
Value Value Ex. Rate Description (US$m) (S$m) Imp 214 272 1.27 Construction of a Pacific Class 400-jackup rig 1020 1295 1.27 Construction of 2 x Jurong Espadon III Drillship 1234
Delivery
Owner
Options
4Q15 2Q17, 1Q18
Marco Polo Marine Transocean
2 more units 3 more units
1568
Source: Company data
The Singapore Reporter
21
08 May 2014
Commodities: CPO continues up Olam / Noble – Gerald Wong, CFA, 65 6212 3037 / gerald.wong@credit-
suisse.com Palm Oil - Tan Ting Min, 603 2723 2080 /
[email protected] Palm Oil - Priscilla Tjitra, 62 21 2553 7906 /
[email protected] Figure 72: Rubber
Figure 73: Sugar
6.00
While Brazil sugar prices seem to have stabilised at $370/ton, rubber prices continue to trend downwards
800.0 700.0
5.00
600.0
4.00
500.0
3.00
400.0
300.0
2.00
200.0
1.00
100.0
0.00
Generic 1st Rubber (USD/kg)
Jan-14
Mar-13
Jul-11
May-12
Sep-10
Jan-09
Nov-09
Mar-08
Jul-06
May-07
Sep-05
Jan-04
Nov-04
Jul-13
Dec-13
Brazail suger price (US$/metric tonne)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 74: Malaysian CPO
Figure 75: CPO versus Soy oil prices 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400
Oct-13
May-13
Jul-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Apr-11
Jan-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Jul-06 May-07 Mar-08 Jan-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Jul-11 May-12 Mar-13 Jan-14
1000.0
Sep-11
1500.0
Nov-10
2000.0
Jun-10
2500.0
Jan-10
3000.0
CPO prices have bounced from mid-2012 lows, but at MYR2,700/ton, remain well below 2010 peaks. The gap with Soybean oil price had also closed recently, but Soybean oil prices have started to move up
USD/ton
Mar-09
3500.0
Aug-09
4000.0
Mar-14
Feb-13
Apr-12
Sep-12
Jun-11
Nov-11
Jan-11
Aug-10
Oct-09
Mar-10
May-09
0.0
Crude Soybean Oil Spot Malaysian Palm Oil Board Crude
MYR/metric tonne
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 76: Malaysia – palm oil production
Figure 77: Indonesia – palm oil production
('000 tons)
('000 tons) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -
2014-Malaysia
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research
The Singapore Reporter
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
-
Jun
500
Range 2011-2013
Apr
Range 2011-2013
Mar
1,000
Feb
1,500
Jan
2,000
May
2,500
Malaysian production in March was at the high end of the 2011-13 range, while Indonesian production late 2013 was also higher than the previous years
2013-Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research
22
08 May 2014
Figure 78: Malaysia – palm oil inventory
Figure 79: Brazil – sugar inventory (metric
('000 tons)
tons)
3,000.00
12,000,000
2,500.00
10,000,000
2,000.00
8,000,000
1,500.00
6,000,000
1,000.00
4,000,000
500.00
Range 2011-2013
Range 2011-2013
Malaysian palm oil inventories are at the bottom end of the seasonal range, while Brazil sugar inventories are also seasonally low
2,000,000
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-
2014-Malaysia
2014-Brazail suger inventories
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research
Figure 80: Malaysia, Sabah – precipitation,
Figure 81: Peninsular Malaysia –
centimeter
precipitation, centimeter
1.80
Bloomberg data suggests that while rainfall in Sarawak has improved recently, that in Sabah remains seasonally low
1.20
1.60
1.00
1.40 1.20
Range 2011-2013
0.80
Range 2011-2013
1.00
0.60
0.80 0.60
0.40
0.40
0.20
0.20 -
2014-Sabah
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
-
2014-Peninsular Malaysia
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research * average of Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research * average of Johor, Pahang, Sembilan, Selangor, Perak, Terengganu and Kelantan.
Figure 82: Indonesia, Sumatra –
Figure 83: Indonesia, Kalimantan –
precipitation, centimeter
precipitation, centimeter
0.70
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.50
Rainfall in Sumatra and in Kalimantan are below seasonal range. While rainfall in Kalimantan has improved recently, it still remains well below the 2011-13 range
Range 2011-2013
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.30
0.40
0.20 0.10
Range 2011-2013
0.20
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research * average of South, West and North Sumatra
The Singapore Reporter
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
2014-Sumatra
Feb
-
-
2014-Kalimantan
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse research * average of East, South and West Kalimantan
23
08 May 2014
Figure 84: Edible oil inventories in India 2200
Edible oil inventories in India continue to fall, and are at four-year lows currently
'000 tonnes
2000
-43%
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Source: Solvents Extractors' Association of India
Figure 85: Australia thermal coal exports
Figure 86: Indonesia thermal coal exports
(MT)
(MT)
10%
20
0%
15
-50%
5
Jul-12
Apr-13
Oct-11
-100%
Jan-05
0
Jan-11
-20%
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
0
0%
10
Jul-09
-10%
50%
Apr-10
5
100%
25
Oct-08
10
150%
30
Jan-08
20%
15
200%
35
Jul-06
30%
20
40
Apr-07
40%
Oct-05
25
Indonesia thermal coal exports (MT) YoY Growth
Australia thermal coal exports (MT) YoY Growth
Source: Credit Suisse, customs data
Source: Credit Suisse, customs data
Figure 87: China thermal coal import (MT)
Figure 88: Coal prices (USD/metric tonne)
China thermal coal import (MT) YoY Growth
Source: Credit Suisse, Customs data
The Singapore Reporter
China thermal coal imports have also registered 9% YoY growth in February
Jan-14
Mar-13
May-12
Jul-11
Jan-14
Jul-12
Apr-13
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jul-09
Apr-10
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jul-06
Apr-07
Oct-05
-100%
Jan-05
0
Sep-10
0%
Nov-09
100% 5
Jan-09
200%
Mar-08
10
Jul-06
300%
May-07
400% 15
Sep-05
500%
20
200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0
Nov-04
600%
Jan-04
25
Thermal coal exports growth for both Australia and Indonesia are flat on a YoY basis, coming off relatively strong growth over the past few months
Newcastle Coal
Source: Bloomberg
24
08 May 2014
Figure 89: Astra car sales volumes
Figure 90: Astra motorcycle sales volumes
65,000
58%
500,000
66%
56%
450,000
64%
50,000
54%
400,000
62%
45,000
52%
350,000
60%
50%
300,000
58%
48%
250,000
56%
60,000
Car and motorcycle sales volumes for Astra both were up 12.9% YoY in March
55,000
Astra (car sales)
Source: Company data
The Singapore Reporter
% of Astra [RHS]
Astra (motorcycle sales)
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30,000
Mar-13
35,000
Jan-13
40,000
% of Astra [RHS]
Source: Company data
25
08 May 2014
Singapore Exchange Arjan van Veen, 852 2101 7508 /
[email protected]
Market turnover bounced off lows early 2014, and at S$25.8 bn, was up 8% MoM in April. Yet, turnover remains 17% below levels seen in April 2013
80%
70
60%
60
40%
50
20%
40
0%
30
-20%
20
-40%
10
-60%
0
-80%
Growth (%pa)
80
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
Turnover (S$bn)
Figure 91: Securities market turnover (S$ bn)
Source: SGX
The Singapore Reporter
26
08 May 2014
Transport: Load factor falls Timothy Ross, 65 6212 3337 /
[email protected] Leonard Huo, CFA, 65 6212 3062 /
[email protected] Figure 92: Singapore Airlines load factor
Figure 93: Ridership
90%
20%
85% 80%
SIA passenger load factor for March were 74.6%, down from 76.5% in the previous month. Cargo load factor also weak (68%). Ridership (bus/rail) in Singapore continue to deliver modest growth
15%
75% 10%
70% 65%
5%
60% 55%
0%
50%
SBST Bus SMRT Bus
SIA - Passenger load factor SIA - Cargo load factor
SBST Rail SMRT Rail
Source: Company data
Source: Company data
Figure 94: Tiger Airways - Singapore
Figure 95: Passenger movements at
operations
Changi Airport
550
90 85
450 400
80
Passenger load factor for Tiger Airways increased from 74.6% in February to 79.2% in March. Total passenger arrivals at the Changi airport were 4.5 mn for March, down 2.5% YoY
No. of passengers (mn)
60
500
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13
1Q08
-5%
45%
50 40 30
37
35
32
38
42
37
47
51
54
30
20
250
10
Source: Company data
Source: Changi Airport Group
Figure 96: Baltic Dry Index
Figure 97: TSA Freight Index
Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
The Singapore Reporter
2014 (Mar)
2013
2012
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Jul-06 May-07 Mar-08 Jan-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Jul-11 May-12 Mar-13 Jan-14
0
Apr-12
2,000
Jan-12
4,000
Oct-11
6,000
Jul-11
8,000
Apr-11
10,000
The Baltic Dry Index registered a small uptick towards the end of April (though it remains well below highs), while the TSA freight index has continued to move up
95 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75
Jan-11
12,000
2011
2010
2009
2008
Passengers booked (‘000) - Singapore Passenger load factor (%) [LHS] - Singapore
2007
0
2004
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
70
13
2006
75 300
2005
350
TSA freight index (US$/TEU)
Source: TSA
27
08 May 2014
Telecom: increasing 4G penetration Chate Benchavitvilai, 65 6212 3241 /
[email protected] Figure 98: 4G (post-paid and pre-paid)
Figure 99: Total mobile subscriptions, YoY
monthly net adds
(%)
200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
8.0% 7.0%
6.0% 5.0%
4.0% 3.0%
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
2.0%
Total mobile subscriptions, YoY (%)
4G monthly net adds
Source: IDA
Source: IDA
Figure 100: 4G penetration of post-paid
Figure 101: Fibre penetration of
base
Broadband base
0.50
4G penetration of the postpaid base continued to increase (47.4% for January), while fibre penetration of broadband has reached 37.4%
0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20
0.45
0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25
0.20
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
0.15
Mar-13
4G monthly net adds for January slowed from 175,700 in the previous month to 119,500. Total subscriber growth of 4% YoY for January is close to the lows for the past three years
4G penetration of postpaid base
Fibre penetration of Broadband base
Source: IDA
Source: IDA
Figure 102: Dividend yield – Telecom versus REITs Dividend yield (%) 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Telco
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
REITs
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates
The Singapore Reporter
28
08 May 2014
Others: COE continues to fall Figure 103: Singapore visitor arrivals
Figure 104: Singapore COE Premium -
Singapore visitor arrivals slowed in March, and was down 7% YoY. COE for both Cat A and Cat B remained range bound at SG$71,33575,010
Category A and B
Singapore Visitor Arrivals
Oct-13
Mar-14
May-13
Jul-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Apr-11
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
-10%
Jan-10
-5%
800
Jan 14
0%
900
Jan 13
5%
1,000
Jan 12
10%
1,100
Jan 11
15%
1,200
Jan 10
20%
1,300
Jan 09
25%
S$ '000
Jan 08
1,400
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Jan 07
1,500
30%
Jan 06
35%
Thousands
Jan 05
1,600
Category B (Cars 1600cc & above) Category A (Cars 1600cc & below)
YoY Growth
Source: CEIC, STB
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 105: Singapore COE Premium -
Figure 106: Passenger Car and Light Truck
Category E
Tire Market –original equipment
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
S$ '000
(YoY, %)
60.0 50.0
40.0 30.0
Cat E COE fell 12% MoM to SG$73,810. Global OEM tyre sales continue a modest uptrend in the key regions of Europe / North America and China
20.0
10.0 0.0 -10.0
-20.0
Category E ["Open" (for any kind of vehicle)]
North America China
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Michelin
Figure 107: Passenger Car and Light Truck
Figure 108: Print ad revenue growth
Tire Market - replacement
(YoY%) 40
(YoY, %)
(%)
30 20 10 0
Global replacement tyre sales is also increasing steadily across the key geographies. Singapore advertisement revenues continue to decline on a YoY basis
-10 -20 -30
Europe Brazil
Source: Michelin
The Singapore Reporter
North America China
1QFY07 3QFY07 1QFY08 3QFY08 1QFY09 3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14
Jan-14 Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13 Mar-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
-40
Jan-12 Mar-12
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0
Jan-14 Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13 Mar-13
Nov-12
Europe Brazil
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12 Mar-12
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
-30.0
Display
Classified
Total
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
29
08 May 2014
Singapore model portfolio Figure 109: Credit Suisse Singapore model portfolio Stock Banks DBS UOB OCBC Capital Goods Keppel Corp Yangzijiang SCI ST Engineering SMM Real Estate GLP CDL KepLand HKL Telecom SingTel M1 StarHub Transportation ComfortDelGro SIA HPHT SIA Engineering REITS CMT Consumer Discretionary OSIM GENS SPH Jardine C&C Health Care IHH Heathcare Insurance Great Eastern Agribusiness First Resources Noble Bumitama GGR Diversified Financials SGX Consumer Staples ThaiBev Jardine JM JS Mid cap
Price (S$)
TP
[7-May]
(S$)
DBS SP UOB SP OCBC SP
17.02 21.60 9.74
19.30 22.80 9.50
13% 6% -2%
O N U
KEP SP YZJSGD SP SCI SP STE SP SMM SP
10.58 1.15 5.40 3.84 3.95
12.70 1.50 5.40 3.40 3.90
20% 30% -11% -1%
O O N U N
GLP SP CIT SP KPLD SP HKL SP
2.75 10.78 3.45 6.73
3.15 12.11 3.80 8.64
15% 12% 10% 28%
N O N O
3.77 3.37 4.17
3.90 3.64 4.40
3% 8% 6%
N O N
2.02 10.28 0.68 4.87
2.15 10.80 0.82 -
6% 5% 21% -
O N O NR
2.02
2.40
19%
O
2.82 1.33 4.18 44.40
3.20 1.70 4.00 -
13% 28% -4% -
O O N NR
IHH SP
1.51
1.88
25%
GE SP
19.15
25.00
FR SP NOBL SP BAL SP GGR SP
2.50 1.25 1.13 0.60
SGX SP THBEV SP
Bberg
ST SP M1 SP STH SP CD SP SIA SP HPHT SP SIE SP CT SP OSIM SP GENS SP SPH SP JCNC SP
JS SP JM SP
Upside
Weighting (%)
(%) Rating
STI 29.7 10.8 9.3 9.6 10.7 5.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 12.9 3.0 2.3 3.6 11.0 10.1 0.9 5.3 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.4
CS 33.0 15.0 13.0 5.0 13.0 10.0 2.0 1.0 14.5 3.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 16.0 13.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 -
CS (last published) 31.0 15.0 11.0 5.0 13.0 10.0 2.0 1.0 14.5 3.5 14.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 -
CS new vs old 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
1.9 7.0 3.0 2.4 1.6
3.5 3.5 -
2.0 3.5 3.5 -
-2.0 0.0 -
O
-
3.0
3.0
0.0
31%
O
3.30 1.50 1.30 0.82
32% 20% 15% 37%
O O O O
6.9 1.7 1.4
3.0 8.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 -
3.0 8.0 3.0 -
0.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 -
6.91
7.75
12%
N
2.1
-
-
-
0.60
0.68
-
O
35.72 61.75
37.00 63.00
4% 2%
N N
2.1 10.4 3.6 6.7 -
1.0 -
3.0
1.0 -3.0
Note: O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U= Underperform, NR = Not rated. Source: Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates for covered companies
The Singapore Reporter
30
08 May 2014
Figure 110: CS SG model portfolio versus MSCI SG (YTD) 106 Last change (Dec 6, 2013) to-date rel to MSCI (bps) : 163.6 104 102 100 98
96 94 92 90 Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14 Model Portfolio
Apr-14 MSCI SG
Source: MSCI, Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates
Recent published research Date Tue 6 May
Title Genting Singapore - A strong start to the year
Author(s) Loke Foong Wai
Fri 2 May
Singapore Banks Sector - Outlook mixed post 1Q14 results
Anand Swaminathan 65 6212 3012
[email protected]
Tue 29 Apr
ASEAN Healthcare Sector - Close to escape velocity
Anand Swaminathan 65 6212 3012
[email protected]
Mon 28 Apr
Asia-Pacific Transport Sector - Currency & pricing drive 1Q14 results
Timothy Ross
65 6212 3337
[email protected]
Mon 28 Apr
Asia Palm Oil Sector - Second bite of the cherry
Tan Ting Min
60 3 2723 2080
[email protected]
Mon 28 Apr
Singapore O&M Sector - 1Q14 results preview - A little respite?
Gerald Wong, CFA
65 6212 3037
[email protected]
Mon 28 Apr
Singapore Property Sector - URA 1Q14: Residential prices down QoQ, whilst industrial rebounds and office edges higher
Yvonne Voon
65 6212 3026
[email protected]
Tue 22 Apr
Singapore Banks Sector - Basel III capital analysis: Close Anand Swaminathan 65 6212 3012 to the end of pro-cyclical benefits
[email protected]
Mon 21 Apr
Asia-Pacific Transport Sector - Freight demand: Bouncing Timothy Ross off the bottom
65 6212 3337
[email protected]
Tue 15 Apr
Asian Exchange Watch - Hong Kong / Shanghai 'through Arjan van Veen train' finally leaves the station
852 2101 7508
[email protected]
Fri 11 Apr
Noble Group - Quantifying the transformation
Gerald Wong, CFA
65 6212 3037
[email protected]
Thu 10 Apr
Keppel Corporation - Turning Chinese threat into opportunity
Gerald Wong, CFA
65 6212 3037
[email protected]
Mon 7 Apr
Singapore Exchange - Volumes slowly recovering
Arjan van Veen
852 2101 7508
[email protected]
Wed 2 Apr
OCBC - Buying WHB at 2.0x P/NTA - difficult to justify valuation premium paid
Anand Swaminathan 65 6212 3012
Tue 1 Apr
Asia Telecoms Sector - 4Q13 quarterly earnings and trend Colin McCallum, CA analyser
The Singapore Reporter
Tel. E-mail 60 3 2723 2082
[email protected]
[email protected]
852 2101 6514
[email protected]
31
The Singapore Reporter
Figure 111: Event calendar Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
5-May PMI (Apr) GENS ex-dividend (S$0.01/shr) RFMD ex-dividend (S$0.04/shr) Venture ex-dividend (S$0.5/shr) 1Q14 Genting Singapore 1Q14 OUEHT
6-May SGX Market Statistics (Apr) FR ex-dividend (S$0.0325/shr) Halcyon ex-dividend (S$0.01/shr) HLF ex-dividend (S$0.08/shr) IFAR ex-dividend (S$0.0052/shr) SPH ex-dividend (S$0.07/shr) 1Q14 Halcyon Agri 1Q14 OSIM 1Q14 SCI 13-May Vesak Day
7-May COE Open Bidding (1st) 1Q14 StarHub
8-May 1Q14 Hyflux 4Q14 SIA 1Q14 Wilmar
9-May OUEHT ex-dividend (S$0.0168/shr) YZJ ex-dividend (S$0.05/shr) 1Q14 STE (bef-mkt) 3Q14 Amtek Eng
14-May CS: Changi Airports Int'l lunch StarHub ex-dividend (S$0.05/shr) 1Q14 CDL 1Q14 First Resources 1Q14 NOL 1Q14 THBEV
16-May NODX (Apr) OUE ex-dividend (S$0.02/shr)
19-May
20-May
21-May COE Open Bidding (2nd)
15-May CS: SIA group lunch URA developers' sales (Apr) SIA operating statistics (Apr) Retail Sales (Mar) MSCI quarterly review (14-May CET) 4Q14 SingTel (bef-mkt) 1Q14 Noble Group 22-May 4Q14 SATS
26-May Industrial Production (Apr)
27-May
28-May 4Q14 Biosensors
12-May Tigerair Operating Statistics (Apr) DBS ex-dividend (S$0.30/shr) Noble ex-dividend (S$0.0091/shr) 1Q14 ComfortDelGro
29-May
23-May GDP (1Q) - detailed report @ 08:00 Balance of Payments (1Q) CPI (Apr) 4Q14 GLP 30-May Money Supply (Apr) Bank loans & advances (Apr) Credit Card data (Apr)
All dates are expected dates of release and are subject to change. Source: Company data, SGX, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service
08 May 2014
32
The Singapore Reporter
Figure 112: Credit Suisse Singapore valuation summary Up/ Close on
Bberg
7 May 2014
code
Price Target RIC
(S$)
Price
T+1 Div.
Mkt
down
cap Year Consensus EPS
(%) Rat.
Banks
(S$ mn)
end
109,164
1
14E
15E
16E
8.3
8.7
11.5
EPS (S$) 13A
14E
15E
% EPS growth 16E
P/E (x)
P/B P/RNAV
Net debt/
yld equity
ROE (%)
13A
14E
15E
16E
13A
14E
15E
16E
(x)
(x)
(%)
(%)
13A
14E
15E
3.1
10.6
6.9
8.8
12.1
10.9
10.2
9.4
1.27
n.a
3.5
n.m
11
11
11
1
DBS
DBS SP
DBSM.SI
17.02
19.30
13
O
41,624
Dec
1.57
1.73
1.96
1.41
1.61
1.77
1.97
3.0
14.1
9.8
11.3
12.1
10.6
9.6
8.6
1.22
n.a
3.5
n.m
11
11
12
2
UOB
UOB SP
UOBH.SI
21.60
22.80
6
N
34,063
Dec
1.88
2.03
2.26
1.82
1.92
2.04
2.17
7.4
5.7
6.2
6.0
11.9
11.2
10.6
10.0
1.29
n.a
3.5
n.m
12
12
12
3
OCBC
OCBC SP
OCBC.SI
9.74
9.50
(2)
U
33,477
Dec
0.87
0.94
1.03
0.80
0.89
0.92
1.00
(1.0)
11.2
3.8
8.3
12.2
11.0
10.6
9.8
1.33
n.a
3.5
n.m
12
12
12
6.6
7.3
4.0
1.5
6.4
4.5
5.0
16.8
15.7
15.1
14.4
2.96
n.a
4.7
31.0
17
19
20
Telecommunications
70,423
4
SingTel
ST SP
STEL.SI
3.77
3.90
3
N
60,106
Mar
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.22
0.23
0.25
0.26 (12.1)
6.2
6.7
3.6
17.1
16.1
15.1
14.6
2.51
n.a
4.5
29.3
15
16
17
5
StarHub
STH SP
STAR.SI
4.17
4.40
6
N
7,190
Dec
0.22
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.24
2.9
5.0
4.1
3.3
19.4
18.4
17.7
17.1
87
n.a
5.0
509
587
403
327
6
M1
M1 SP
MONE.SI
3.37
3.64
8
O
3,127
Dec
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.17
0.18
0.20
0.22
4.3
9.0
7.9
Capital goods
57,309
8.3
5.8
9.4
7.3
19.4
18.3
16.7
15.6
7.88
n.a
4.3
49.5
43
45
49
(13.3)
3.0
15.3
7.9
13.7
13.3
11.6
10.9
2.19
n.a
3.8
6.7
17
16
16
13.3
18.7
1.8
13.5
11.9
10.1
9.9
1.97
n.a
4.2
8.0
15
15
16
7
Keppel
KEP SP
KPLM.SI
10.58
12.70
20
O
19,216
Dec
0.87
0.94
1.02
0.78
0.89
1.05
1.07 (26.7)
8
STE
STE SP
STEG.SI
3.84
3.40
(11)
U
11,971
Dec
0.20
0.21
0.23
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.0
6.1
4.2
4.0
20.4
19.3
18.5
17.8
5.64
n.a
4.2
cash
29
28
27
9
SCI
SCI SP
SCIL.SI
5.40
5.40
0
N
9,649
Dec
0.46
0.50
0.54
0.46
0.44
0.49
0.55
8.9
(3.7)
10.4
12.4
11.8
12.2
11.1
9.8
1.84
n.a
3.1
cash
17
14
15
10
SMM
SMM SP
SCMN.SI
3.95
3.90
(1)
N
8,252
Dec
0.29
0.31
0.32
0.26
0.27
0.31
0.37
10.4
1.4
15.9
18.2
14.9
14.7
12.7
10.7
3.08
n.a
3.5
cash
22
20
21
11
YZJ 3
YZJSGD SP
YAZG.SI
1.15
1.50
30
O
4,407
Dec
0.67
0.70
0.78
0.81
0.73
0.80
0.86 (13.5)
(9.2)
8.9
7.3
7.1
7.8
7.2
6.7
1.23
n.a
4.2
19.3
19
15
15
12
COSCO
COS SP
COSC.SI
0.73
0.60
(17)
U
1,623
Dec
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03 (71.0)
(7.0)
78.8
43.4
53.0
57.0
31.9
22.2
1.22
n.a
1.4
80.6
2
2
4
13
Vard 5
VARD SP
VARD.SI
1.03
0.80
(22)
U
1,210
Dec
0.46
0.64
0.76
0.35
0.49
0.71
n.a (54.0)
37.9
47.2
n.a
13.8
10.0
6.8
n.a
1.60
n.a
3.9
cash
12
15
20
14
Hyflux
HYF SP
HYFL.SI
1.19
1.20
1
N
981
Dec
0.04
0.06
0.06
0.02
0.00
0.04
0.07 (45.2) (92.1)
n.m
76.0
48.9
616
31.8
18.1
2.03
n.a
1.1
115.4
4
0
6
5.9
11.2
19.1
(1.3)
5.2
11.9
7.6
21.8
20.7
18.5
17.2
0.99
0.7
2.0
28.3
5
5
5
7.5 (24.2)
3.8
9.6
30.0
39.6
38.1
34.8
1.25
0.9
1.0
10.2
4
3
3
Property
52,084
15
GLP 2
GLP SP
GLPL.SI
2.75
3.15
15
N
13,090
Mar
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
16
CDL
CIT SP
CTDM.SI
10.78
12.11
12
O
9,802
Dec
0.69
0.74
0.84
0.52
0.75
0.79
0.88
(6.6)
43.2
5.9
11.5
20.6
14.4
13.6
12.2
1.25
0.8
1.5
19.9
6
8
8
17
KepLand
KPLD SP
KLAN.SI
3.45
3.80
10
N
5,333
Dec
0.27
0.30
0.33
0.28
0.28
0.30
0.31
(6.4)
(1.2)
7.4
3.7
12.2
12.4
11.5
11.1
0.75
0.6
3.5
38.3
7
6
6
18
OUE
OUE SP
OVES.SI
2.29
2.95
29
O
2,084
Dec
0.09
0.12
0.14 (0.01)
0.10
0.12
0.12
n.m
n.m
12.7
5.8
n.m
21.9
19.4
18.4
0.72
0.6
4.8
57.2
(0)
3
3
26.0
12.8
8.6
(7.3)
23.9
14.6
13.6
15.9
12.9
11.2
9.9
1.15
0.0
2.3
77.7
7
9
9
Agribusiness / Commodity
50,217
Wilmar 2
WIL SP
WLIL.SI
3.30
R
-
R
21,117
Dec
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.20
0.22
0.23
0.26
5.0
7.5
8.6
8.7
13.1
12.2
11.2
10.3
1.13
n.a
2.6
91.0
9
9
8
20
Noble 2
NOBL SP
NOBG.SI
1.25
1.50
20
O
8,258
Dec
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.04
0.07
0.08
0.11 (49.4)
80.8
27.1
26.3
27.3
15.1
11.9
9.4
1.29
n.a
1.7
98.4
5
8
10
21
GGR 2
GGR SP
GAGR.SI
0.60
0.82
37
O
7,703
Dec
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.04 (21.3)
46.9
16.2
4.4
19.4
13.2
11.4
10.9
0.71
n.a
2.9
25.6
4
5
6
22
First Resources 2
FR SP
FRLD.SI
2.50
3.30
32
O
3,960
Dec
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.23
2.7
26.3
9.5
22.5
14.6
11.6
10.6
8.6
3.31
n.a
2.1
20.9
21
26
23
23
Bumitama 4
BAL SP
BUMI.SI
1.13
1.30
15
O
1,986
Dec
687
855 1,034
476
727
873 1,322
11.6
52.8
20.1
51.5
22.0
14.4
12.0
7.9
3.30
n.a
0.5
59.6
16
21
21
24
IFAR 4
IFAR SP
IFAR.SI
1.07
1.10
3
N
1,509
Dec
635
795
942
363
673
824
915 (50.0)
85.6
22.5
11.0
27.2
14.7
12.0
10.8
1.02
n.a
0.9
21.9
4
7
8
25
Halcyon Agri 2
HACL SP
HALC.SI
0.75
0.80
7
N
295
Dec
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.02
0.04
0.07
0.09
(7.9)
82.8
64.0
25.5
24.3
13.3
8.1
6.4
2.75
0.0
2.6
cash
17
20
27
26 27 28 29 30
S-REITs CMT A-REIT CCT SUNT Keppel REIT
CT SP AREIT SP CCT SP SUN SP KREIT SP
CMLT.SI AEMN.SI CACT.SI SUNT.SI KASA.SI
2.02 2.36 1.63 1.75 1.23
2.40 2.48 1.59 1.55 1.30
19 5 (2) (11) 6
O N N U N
41,768 6,991 5,670 4,699 4,351 3,431
Dec Mar Dec Dec Dec
3.8 0.11 0.14 0.08 0.10 0.08
3.7 0.11 0.15 0.09 0.10 0.07
2.7 0.12 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.08
0.10 0.14 0.08 0.09 0.08
0.11 0.14 0.08 0.09 0.08
0.12 0.15 0.08 0.10 0.07
0.12 0.15 0.09 0.10 0.07
13.4 8.6 1.4 1.2 (1.7) 1.5
2.5 6.9 3.6 2.5 0.6 (3.5)
2.1 5.6 4.5 0.2 4.4 (8.0)
2.4 3.0 0.4 4.1 2.2 (0.5)
17.4 19.7 17.2 20.0 18.7 15.5
16.9 18.4 16.6 19.5 18.6 16.1
16.6 17.4 15.9 19.5 17.8 17.5
16.2 16.9 15.8 18.7 17.4 17.6
1.03 1.18 1.21 0.96 0.82 0.86
1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9
5.9 5.4 6.3 5.1 5.4 6.2
47.2 37.8 42.0 39.8 59.8 65.0
6 6 7 5 4 6
6 6 7 5 4 5
6 7 7 5 5 5
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
MLT MCT SPH REIT MIT ART CDLHT FCT OUEHT
MLT SP MCT SP SPHREIT SP MINT SP ART SP CDREIT SP FCT SP OUEHT SP
MAPL.SI MACT.SI SPHR.SI MAPI.SI ASRT.SI CDLT.SI FCRT.SI OUER.SI
1.13 1.29 1.00 1.47 1.19 1.74 1.83 0.89
1.42 1.48 1.05 1.68 1.32 2.00 2.11 1.05
26 15 6 14 11 15 15 19
O O N O N O N O
2,767 2,687 2,498 2,485 1,818 1,696 1,510 1,165
Mar Mar Aug Mar Dec Dec Sep Dec
0.07 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.06
0.07 0.07 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.06
0.08 0.07 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.06
0.07 0.06 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.06
0.07 0.07 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.07
0.07 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.07
0.07 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.07
4.0 7.2 12.8 13.6 n.a 9.9 9.9 7.4 (4.2) (11.1) (3.1) 1.3 9.2 1.8 n.a 6.0
0.5 2.4 1.3 2.8 0.8 5.4 6.9 0.5
1.3 3.1 1.9 7.8 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.6
16.5 19.9 21.0 15.9 14.2 15.8 16.7 14.1
15.4 17.5 19.1 14.8 15.9 15.6 16.4 13.3
15.3 17.1 18.8 14.4 15.8 14.8 15.4 13.2
15.1 16.6 18.5 13.4 15.7 14.5 15.1 13.1
1.23 1.22 1.05 1.33 0.87 1.06 1.03 0.96
1.0 1.1 n.a 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 n.a
6.5 5.9 5.2 6.9 6.3 6.4 6.1 7.5
50.3 70.1 29.2 53.2 45.4 38.8 37.6 43.0
8 6 5 9 6 7 7 7
8 7 5 9 5 7 6 7
8 6 6 8 5 8 6 7
33
08 May 2014
19
The Singapore Reporter
Figure 112: Credit Suisse Singapore valuation summary (continued) Up/ Close on
Bberg
7 May 2014
code
RIC
Price Target down (%) (S$) Price
T+1 Div.
Mkt cap Year Consensus EPS Rat. (S$ mn)
Transport
end
32,271
39
SIA
SIA SP
SIAL.SI
10.28
40
HPHT 6
HPHT SP
HPHT.SI
41
CD
CD SP
CMDG.SI
2.02
2.15
42
SATS
SATS SP
SATS.SI
3.20
43
NOL 2
NOL SP
NEPS.SI
1.01
44
SMRT
MRT SP
SMRT.SI
45
Tiger
TGR SP GENS SP
1
14E
15E
16E
75.6
38.3
31.5
EPS (S$) 13A
14E
15E
% EPS growth 16E
P/E (x)
P/B P/RNAV
Net debt/
yld equity
ROE (%)
13A
14E
15E
16E
13A
14E
15E
16E
(x)
(x)
(%)
(%)
13A
14E
15E
(9.0)
95.8
29.6
11.2
43.1
22.0
17.0
15.3
1.05
n.a
4.1
17.1
2
5
6 5
10.80
5
N
12,073
Mar
0.39
0.57
0.78
0.34
0.38
0.56
0.69
(3.8)
11.1
46.5
24.3
29.9
26.9
18.4
14.8
0.94
n.a
2.1
cash
3
3
US$0.68 US$0.82
21
O
7,404
Dec
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.20
0.23
0.27
0.29 (24.0)
19.4
16.0
7.8
27.0
22.6
19.5
18.1
0.70
n.a
7.8
33.2
3
3
4
6
O
4,306
Dec
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
4.9
7.8
4.1
6.6
16.2
15.0
14.5
13.6
1.99
n.a
3.7
cash
13
13
13
3.35
5
N
3,581
Mar
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.21
11.1
(8.2)
15.7
11.6
17.7
19.3
16.7
14.9
2.54
n.a
4.7
cash
14
13
15
0.95
(5)
U
2,606
Dec
0.01
0.08
0.11 (0.12)
0.01
0.04
0.06
n.m
n.m 273.4
66.5
n.m
78.7
21.1
12.7
1.00
n.a
0.3
182.3
(14)
1
5
1.25
0.98
(22)
U
1,902
Mar
0.09
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.07 (29.0) (38.8)
28.0
30.6
18.9
30.9
24.1
18.5
2.47
n.a
2.1
8.2
13
8
10
TAHL.SI
0.41
0.32
(21)
U
399
Mar
0.00
n.m
n.m
n.m
n.m 113.4
2.01
n.a
0.0
200.0
(20)
(47)
(14)
GENS.SI
1.33
1.70
28
O
16,284
Dec
0.07
(0.12) (0.05) (0.02) (0.05) (0.13) (0.05)
n.m
n.m
n.m
Casinos & Gaming 46
GENS Healthcare
15,966
0.06
0.06
0.07
3.3
16.5
20.1
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
2.9
4.2
10.8
8.1
26.8
25.7
23.2
21.4
1.69
n.a
0.8
cash
7
6
7
45.2
9.9
19.9
21.7
36.6
33.3
27.8
22.8
1.69
n.a
0.6
(36.0)
5
5
6
47
IHH 7
IHH SP
IHHH.SI
1.51
1.85
23
O
12,318
Dec
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.09
0.10
0.13
0.16 172.8
16.0
24.4
27.4
44
38.3
30.8
24.1
1.77
n.a
0.5
16.8
4
5
6
48
Raffles Med
RFMD SP
RAFG.SI
3.63
3.20
(12)
N
2,019
Dec
0.13
0.15
0.18
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.17
11.4
12.1
9.8
18.2
31
27.6
25.2
21.3
4.25
n.a
1.4
cash
15
14
14
49
Biosensors 2
BIG SP
BIOS.SI
0.96
1.00
4
N
1,630
Mar
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.04
(2.5) (56.2)
57.2
1.9
12.0
27.4
17.4
17.1
1.06
n.a
2.6
cash
9
4
6
THBEV SP
TBEV.SI
0.60
0.68
14
O
14,940
Dec
0.88
0.94
1.03
0.76
0.83
0.90
1.00 (32.9)
8.4
9.1
11.2
20.2
18.7
17.1
15.4
4.11
n.a
2.5
64.1
22
21
20
GE SP
GELA.SI
19.15
25.00
31
O
9,064
Dec
1.55
1.65
1.78
1.43
1.62
1.70
1.93 (43.3)
13.6
5.2
12.9
13.4
11.8
11.2
9.9
1.79
n.a
4.2
n.m
14
14
13
5.9
12.4
5.2
3.8
6.5
13.9
15.6
21.3
20.0
17.5
15.2
3.35
n.a
4.3
cash
16
17
18
F&B 50
THBEV 8 Insurance
51
GE Diversified Financials
8,590
52
SGX
SGX SP
SGXL.SI
6.91
7.75
12
N
7,393
Jun
0.31
0.35
0.40
0.31
0.31
0.35
0.41
15.0
0.3
12.3
17.3
22.1
22.0
19.6
16.7
8.33
n.a
4.0
cash
39
37
40
53
HLF
HLF SP
HLSF.SI
2.70
2.40
(11)
U
1,197
Dec
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.15
0.17
0.18
0.20
(9.9)
7.8
8.9
8.8
17.5
16.2
14.9
13.7
0.73
n.a
4.4
n.m
4
5
5
SPH SP
SPRM.SI
4.18
4.00
(4)
N
6,686
Aug
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.20
0.21 (13.8)
(3.5)
5.9
4.4
20.9
21.6
20.4
19.6
1.91
n.a
5.3
30.3
9
9
9
10.4
13.8
10.2
(7.0)
8.6
15.7
9.6
14.1
12.9
11.2
10.2
1.14
n.a
6.8
cash
8
9
11
Media 54
SPH Technology
2,330
55
Venture
VMS SP
VENM.SI
7.24
7.40
2
N
1,989
Dec
0.53
0.59
0.64
0.48
0.51
0.58
0.64
(6.1)
6.9
13.9
10.1
15.1
14.2
12.4
11.3
1.09
n.a
6.9
cash
7
8
10
56
Amtek 2
AMTK SP
AMEL.SI
0.63
0.64
2
O
341
Jun
0.05
0.06
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.07
0.08 (20.2)
3.2
28.6
17.2
10.1
9.8
7.6
6.5
1.67
n.a
6.0
18.3
17
16
19
143.8
17.2
12.2
4.6 145.1
21.8
21.6
48.0
19.6
16.1
13.2
3.14
n.a
2.2
36.8
7
16
18
25.3
Small-/mid-Caps
2,728
57
OSIM
OSIM SP
OSIL.SI
2.82
3.20
13
O
2,098
Dec
0.16
0.18
0.21
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.23
4.6
27.3
17.8
22.8
17.9
14.3
12.1
7.83
n.a
2.8
cash
42
44
46
58
Linc 9
LNC SP
LINC.SI
1.10
2.14
95
O
630
Jun
0.00
0.03
0.02 (0.12)
0.02
0.05
0.02
n.a
n.m 185.7 (61.2)
n.m
55.6
19.5
50.2
1.12
n.a
0.0
79.8
(15)
2
5
3.3
9.8
12.0
Jardine group
122,340
6.0
(0.8)
8.9
(7.7)
15.2
15.4
14.1
19.0
3.16
0.6
1.7
10.5
6
6
6
59
JM 2
JM SP
JARD.SI
US$61.8 US$63.0
2
N
52,530
Dec
4.19
4.68
5.16
4.03
4.12
4.53
n.a
(0.4)
2.1
9.8
n.a
15
15.0
13.6
n.a
1.22
n.a
2.0
10.8
8
8
8
60
JS 2
JS SP
JSH.SI
US$35.7 US$37.0
4
N
50,018
Dec
2.77
3.10
3.58
2.52
2.53
2.80
n.a
(2.3)
0.3
10.8
n.a
14.2
14.1
12.7
n.a
0.97
n.a
0.6
9.5
7
7
7
61
HKL 2
HKL SP
HKLD.SI
US$6.73 US$8.64
28
O
19,791
Dec
0.37
0.37
0.40
0.38
0.37
0.38
0.35
18.5
(3.0)
3.7
(7.7)
17.7
18.2
17.6
19.0
0.59
0.6
2.7
11.6
4
3
3
612,164 Dec
8.5
10.2
10.8
(3.1)
9.6
9.9
8.3
16.4
15.0
13.6
12.6
1.44
0.7
3.3
25.4
8
9
9
Market
3,236
3,400
5
Note: (1) The sector numbers represent the consensus EPS growth; (2) EPS numbers in USD; (3) EPS numbers in Renminbi; (4) EPS numbers in Rupiah; (5) EPS numbers in NKr (Norwegian Krone); (6) EPS numbers in HKD; (7) EPS numbers in RM; (8) EPS numbers in THB; (9) EPS numbers in AUD Rating: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM. P/NBV and net debt to equity are for the FY2013 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
08 May 2014
34
08 May 2014
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 07-May-2014) Advance SCT (ASCT.SI, S$0.003) Albedo (ABDM.SI, S$0.013) Artivision (ARTT.SI, S$0.049) Asia Fashion (ASFN.SI, S$0.1) AusGroup (AUSG.SI, S$0.44) Blumont Group (BLUM.SI, S$0.027) CCF (CACF.SI, S$0.033) CCM Group (CCMG.SI, S$0.007) CFM Holdings (CFMH.SI, S$0.073) Captii (UNIF.SI, S$0.04) ChinaVision (CVMG.SI, HK$0.051) DBS Group (DBSM.SI, S$17.02) Ezra Holdings Ltd (EZRA.SI, S$1.07) Fraser and Neave (FRNM.SI, S$3.06) GDS Global (GDSG.SI, S$0.28) Genting Singapore (GENS.SI, S$1.33) Giken Sakata (S) (GISK.SI, S$0.29) Hongcheng (CHGH.SI, S$0.007) Hotel Prop (HPPS.SI, S$3.59) ICP (ICPL.SI, S$0.001) Innopac Hldg (INPS.SI, S$0.01) JK Tech Holdings (JKTL.SI, S$0.475) Jardine Cycle (JCYC.SI, S$44.4) Jason Holdings (JAHL.SI, S$0.2825) Keppel Corporation (KPLM.SI, S$10.58) Nobel Design (NBEL.SI, S$0.56) Noble Group Ltd (NOBG.SI, S$1.24) OSIM International (OSIL.SI, S$2.82) Oxley Hldg (OXHL.SI, S$0.78) Petra Foods (PEFO.SI, S$3.59) Prudential (PRTL.SI, $20.0) Rowsley (ROWS.SI, S$0.28) SMRT (SMRT.SI, S$1.25) STX Pan Ocean (PANOx.SI, S$3.75) Shangri-La Asa (SHNG.SI, HK$12.7) Sinarmas Land (SINA.SI, S$0.58) Soon Lian (SNLN.SI, S$0.1) Straits Trading (STCM.SI, S$3.22) Sunmoon Food (SMFC.SI, S$0.002) Swee Hong (SWEE.SI, S$0.225) Total Access Com (TACC.SI, $3.68) United (UNIT.SI, S$1.35) VGO Corp (VGOC.SI, S$0.15) Wheelock Prop (WPSL.SI, S$1.79) Yuexiu Property (YPCL.SI, S$0.285)
Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures I, Sanjay Mookim, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings ar e based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analys t within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Ame rican and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative at tractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10 15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were ba sed on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark.
The Singapore Reporter
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Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances. Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward. Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation: Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months. Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months. Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months. *An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is: Global Ratings Distribution
Rating
Versus universe (%)
Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 44% (54% banking clients) Neutral/Hold* 40% (49% banking clients) Underperform/Sell* 13% (44% banking clients) Restricted 3% *For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock rating s of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.
Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to Credit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research and analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
The subject company (DBSM.SI, KPLM.SI, NOBG.SI, GENS.SI, SMRT.SI) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (SMRT.SI) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (DBSM.SI, KPLM.SI, NOBG.SI) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (SMRT.SI) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (DBSM.SI, GENS.SI, SMRT.SI, OSIL.SI) within the next 3 months. Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject company (DBSM.SI, KPLM.SI, NOBG.SI) within the past 12 months For other important disclosures concerning companies featured in this report, including price charts, please visit the website at https://rave.creditsuisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
Important Regional Disclosures Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report. The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (DBSM.SI, KPLM.SI, NOBG.SI, GENS.SI, SMRT.SI, OSIL.SI) within the past 12 months Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares. Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.
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For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/canada_research_policy.shtml. Credit Suisse has acted as lead manager or syndicate member in a public offering of securities for the subject company (DBSM.SI, KPLM.SI, SMRT.SI, OSIL.SI) within the past 3 years. As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report. Principal is not guaranteed in the case of equities because equity prices are variable. Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that. To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors: The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch ............................................................................................................... Sanjay Mookim ; Kwee Hong Ching
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Important Credit Suisse HOLT Disclosures With respect to the analysis in this report based on the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. The adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur. Additional information about the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variable may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur. CFROI®, HOLT, HOLTfolio, ValueSearch, AggreGator, Signal Flag and “Powered by HOLT” are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or registered service marks of Credit Suisse or its affiliates in the United States and other countries. HOLT is a corporate performance and valuation advisory service of Credit Suisse. For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at https://rave.creditsuisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
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