The Rise and Fall of Great Powers Economic Change & Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000

Author : Paul Kennedy (1988) Review/Comments by : Dipinder Sekhon March 17th 2008, MPA – Sciences Po, Paris

“Great Power” What ?

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Economic, Military Fame/Respect, Influence, Happiness Population Cultural, Technological advancement

Who ?

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Nations... their leaders, their people MNCs...their leaders, their stakeholders Groups and Alliances / Identities...people

“Rise & Fall” ... Power has been transitory

Interrelations

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Great Powers : 1500-2000 Ming China The Muslim World  Ottoman, Persian, Mogul Empires  Japan  Habsburg Bloc / Spain, Austria  Russia ... Muscovy  Britain  Germany  Austria Hungary  Netherlands  Europe / EEC  The United States  

The Middle Powers

Strategy & Economics Changing Balances

Key Issues Peace time strategy, developments Results and consequences of Wars Uneven rates of growth Technological breakthroughs

Organisational Breakthroughs

Wealth is usually needed to underpin military power and military power is usually needed to acquire (!) and protect wealth

Breakthroughs...      

Travel, Communication, Information Trade Banking / Credit system Military Innovations Energy : Technology, Resources Innovation, Productivity

Strategy 

Resource Allocation

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Productive, Wealth Creating Activities Military power enhancement

The Right Balance

Over extension of the state

Maintaining a large/extensive military, territories, influence...... .... fighting costly wars ....

Future : 21st Century   

Historical trends ... non-linear China+, US\, EU?, Soviet Union- ,Japan+ War ? ... ceased after 1945 ? ... Mankind will not be foolish again ?

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1910 international bestseller “The Great Illusions” .. war is disastrous for both victors and vanquished

“...continued deficit spending, especially on military build-up, will be the single most important reason for decline of any Great Power”

Thank You !!