T HE I MPACT OF F IRM S IZE ON DYNAMIC I NCENTIVES AND I NVESTMENT

Chang-Koo Chi 1

Kyoung-Jin Choi 2

1 Department of Economics Norwegian School of Economics 2

Haskayne School of Business University of Calgary

July 2016 1 / 45

C ORPORATE D ECISION AND ITS S IZE

Many corporate decision-makings are closely related to its size. • Capital Structures, Investment, Management of employees, etc. • Firm size changes over time through investment or downsizing. • How the time-varying firm size affects corporate decisions? • This paper studies a dynamic principal-agent problem in which firm size is

controlled by the agent’s hidden action and the principal’s investment decision.

2 / 45

T HE S IZE -D EPENDENCE R EGULARITY Existing studies on firm dynamics have concluded • Gibrat’s Law (1931): "The growth rate of a firm and the volatility of the growth

rate are independent of firm size." • Studies since then: "They are negatively associated with firm size."

Small firms have higher and more variable growth rates. H YMER AND PASHIGAN (1962), E VANS (1987), H ALL (1987), C OOLEY AND Q UADRINI (2001), C ABRAL AND M ATTA (2003), ETC .

• Our firm size process reflects this size-dependence regularity. • We address the following question:

How the time-varying firm size with a diminishing volatility of the growth rate affects incentive provision and investment?

3 / 45

M ODELING S TRATEGY

We attribute the regularity to the fact that an underlying shock

a size-dependent production shock

at the macro level

at the firm level

in the sense that the volatility of a firm’s performance increases with its size but their positive correlation decreases as the firm grows. Our model sheds light on the impacts of corporate size dynamic incentive provision and investment decisions.

4 / 45

R ELATED L ITERATURE ON DYNAMIC C ONTRACT T HEORY • Early literature: D E M ARZO AND S ANNIKOV (2006), S ANNIKOV (2008), ETC

A firm’s cash flow or output follows an ABM, dYt = et dt + σ dWt . The production shock is size-independent (no firm size effect). • Recent literature: H E (2009), B IAIS ET AL . (2010), D E M ARZO ET.

AL .

(2012)

A firm’s production follows a GBM, dkt = dYt = kt et dt + σ kt dWt . The production shock is size-dependent, but the model conflicts with the regularity since it entails dkt = et dt + σ dWt . kt 5 / 45

T HE E VOLUTION OF F IRM S IZE

We introduce a novel diffusion process for the evolution of firm size. √ (1) The volatility of cash flow is proportional to kt , which is consistent with the empirical pattern. • It also gives the flavor of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process.

(2) The drift of cash flow is controlled by the agent’s hidden action and the principal’s investment strategy. • We embed a capital accumulation model into a dynamic contracting framework á la

D E M ARZO ET.

AL .

(2012)

6 / 45

P REVIEW OF R ESULTS We explicitly characterize an optimal contract in the CARA environment. (1) Unlike the previous literature, we characterize every contractual policy in terms of firm size or its history (empirically relevant relative to the continuation value per capita). (2) The model delivers qualitative different predictions about corporate decisions depending on firm size. Small Firm

Large Firm

Effort Policy

≤ the first-best level

= the first-best level

Production

Inefficient

Efficient

Wage Dynamics

Back-loaded

Front-loaded

Investment

Under-investment

Over-investment

7 / 45

1. Introduction 2. The Model 3. Analysis 4. Results 4.1 The Optimal Effort Policy 4.2 The Optimal Compensation Scheme 4.3 The Optimal Investment Policy 5. Conclusion

8 / 45

P RODUCTION T ECHNOLOGY We consider a principal (P) - agent (A) model in a continuous-time setting: • (P) hires (A) for business operation producing instantaneous output

dYt =

(kt + h)et | {z }

production technology

dt

+ σ |

p kt dWt {z }

production shock

et is the (A)’s hidden action. kt measures the firm’s capital stock or firm size. W = {Wt , Ft , t ≥ 0} is a standard Brownian motion in (Ω, F , Q). yt is observable to both parties and contractible. • The production technology is multiplicative. The constant h > 0 represents (A)’s

working skills or human capital.

9 / 45

L ONG -T ERM C ONTRACT

At the outset (P) offers (A) a long-term contract with full commitment. • The contract explicitly specifies (1) a flow of compensation for (A), ct (2) a flow of dividend for (P), dt . • The contract implicitly recommends a proper action et for (A). • A long-term contract is therefore

(c, d, e) = {ct , dt , et }t∈[0,∞) .

10 / 45

F IRM S IZE P ROCESS

Output yt can be used for 3 purposes: ct to (A), dt to (P), and investment. • This simple mechanism generates firm dynamics:

dkt = dIt − δ kt dt  = dYt − ct + dt dt − δ kt dt h i p = (kt + h)et − ct − dt − δ kt dt + σ kt dWt , where It is the cumulative investment: dIt = dYt − (ct + dt )dt.

• Theme: Dynamic Contracting Model + Capital Accumulation Model

11 / 45

P ROPERTIES OF F IRM S IZE P ROCESS

Firm Size:

h i p dkt = (kt + h)et − ct − dt − δ kt dt + σ kt dWt . | {z } | {z } drift

volatility

• The drift is endogenously driven by the contract (c, d, e). • The

√ kt -volatility leads to a decreasing volatility of the growth rate.   dkt (kt + h)et − ct − dt − δ kt σ Growth Rate: = dt + √ dWt , kt kt kt

which is consistent with the empirical regularity. √ kt -volatility avoids the possibility of negative firm size and facilitates the analysis of its boundary behavior.

• The

12 / 45

PAYOFF S TRUCTURES

• Denote by v(dt ) and u(ct , et ) (P)’s and (A)’s flow of utility, respectively.

• Assume both parties have a common time-discount factor β ∈ (0, 1).

• The expected lifetime payoff from a contract (c, d, e) can be written

V0 (c, d, e) ≡ E U0 (c, d, e) ≡ E

Z



0

Z



e−β t v(dt )dt −β t

e 0

 for (P) 

u(ct , et ) dt

for (A).

13 / 45

T HE O PTIMAL C ONTRACT P ROBLEM

(P) offers a contract which maximizes her expected lifetime payoff: max V0 (c, d, e)

(c,d,e)

subject to (IR) U0 (c, d, e) ≥ q0 ,

q0 indicates the (A)’s reservation utility.

(IC) e ∈ argmax U0 (c, d, e0 ) e0

h i p (FD) dkt = (kt + h)et − ct − dt − δ kt dt + σ kt dWt .

14 / 45

L ITERATURE R EVIEW dYt = et dt + σ dWt

dYt = et dt + σ dWt

kt is fixed

kt is fixed

(P) and (A) have CARA

(P): risk-neutral, (A): risk-averse

The lump-sum payment rule

Payment is made continuously

(i) H OLMSTÖM AND M ILGROM (1987)

(ii) S ANNIKOV (2008, RES)

dkt = kt et dt + σ kt dWt

dYt = [kt et − kt C (it )] dt + σ kt dWt

dYt = dkt

dkt = kt (it − δ )dt

(P) and (A) are risk-neutral

(P) and (A) are risk-neutral

No Investment

Investment with Adjustment Cost C (i)

(iii) H E (2009, RFS)

(iv) D E M ARZO ET AL . (2012, JF)

15 / 45

1. Introduction 2. The Model 3. Analysis 4. Results 4.1 The Optimal Effort Policy 4.2 The Optimal Compensation Scheme 4.3 The Optimal Investment Policy 5. Conclusion

16 / 45

5 S TEPS TO SOLVE FOR THE O PTIMAL C ONTRACT

(1) Define (A)’s continuation value process q = {qt , t ≥ 0}. Then use the Martingale approach (S ANNIKOV (2008)) to derive its evolution. (2) Characterize Incentive Compatibility. (3) Derive a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) Equation. (4) Conjecture a solution to the HJB and derive the Euler equations. (5) Verify that the conjectured solution maximizes the (P)’s profit.

17 / 45

S TEP 1-1: AGENT ’ S C ONTINUATION VALUE

Given a contract (c, d, e), define (A)’s continuation value as  Z ∞ −β (s−t ) qt (c, d, e) ≡ E e u(cs , es )ds Ft . t

We then write (A)’s expected lifetime utility evaluated at time t as  Zt Z ∞ e−β s u(cs , es )ds Ft = e−β s u(cs , es )ds + e−β t qt . Ut ≡ E 0

0

This process is a martingale, i.e., E[Ut |Fs ] = Us

for every 0 ≤ s ≤ t.

18 / 45

S TEP 1-2: S TOCHASTIC R EPRESENTATION OF qt L EMMA 3.1. There exists a progressively measurable and square-integrable process Γ = {Γt , t ≥ 0} such that qt evolves according to     dqt = β qt − u(ct , et ) dt + Γt dYt − (kt + h)et dt . | {z } √ =σ kt dWte

• (A)’s instantaneous total benefit

u(ct , et )dt + dqt must have a drift part β qt dt for keeping the promise. • The diffusion part Γt σ

√ kt dWte provides a working incentive.

19 / 45

S TEP 2: C HARACTERIZATION OF (IC)

L EMMA 3.2. The effort policy e = {et }t∈[0,∞) is incentive compatible if and only if et ∈ argmax u(ct , e0t ) + Γt (kt + h)e0t

(IC’)

e0t

for all t ≥ 0. • Local IC ⇒ Global IC by "one-shot deviation principle".

• S PEAR AND S RIVASTAVA (1987): qt plays a role as a state variable in

formulating the optimal contract problem.

20 / 45

S TEP 3: D ERIVATION OF HJB FOR P RINCIPAL’ S VALUE F UNCTION Since our model involves time-varying firm size, (P)’s value function depends on kt and qt . How to control (A)’s effort Given (kt , qt ),

(P) decides by choosing ct , dt

How to expand business

• Denote by J (k, q) the (P)’s value function given k and q. • J (k, q) must satisfy the following HJB equation:

( β J (k, q) = max c,d,e

    v(d ) + Jk (k + h)e − c − d − δ k + Jq β q − u(c, e) )  1 2 2 + Jkk + 2Jkq Γ + Jqq Γ σ k . 2 21 / 45

CARA P REFERENCES We now derive the Euler equations that characterize the optimal contract. • However, the two-dimensional problem gives rise to PDEs. • For the sake of tractability, we assume that both contracting parties have a

CARA utility function á la H OLMSTRÖM AND M ILGROM (1987): 1 for (P) v(dt ) = − exp(−Rdt ) R    (kt + h)e2t 1 for (A) u(ct , et ) = − exp −r ct − . r 2a • The agent’s cost function from exerting effort et

(kt + h)e2t 2a is assumed to be quadratic in et and increasing in kt , and thereby the first-best effort level becomes eFt = a. 22 / 45

W HY CARA? We make use of several characteristics of exponential utility functions. (1) On (A)’s side, we can abstract away from the wealth effect. • qt does not affect the (A)’s optimal choice of effort, i.e., e∗t = e∗ (kt ). • Recall the incentive compatibility condition (IC’):

et ∈ argmax u(ct , e0t ) + Γt (kt + h)e0t e0t

Now that it is globally concave in e0t , so Γt is uniquely determined.

(2) On (P)’s side, her investment decision is independent of qt . (3) We can easily conjecture J (k, q). Consequently, we can characterize the optimal contract by a system of ODEs in terms of kt only.

23 / 45

S TEP 4-1: L IQUIDATION We assume that at the very outset, (P) and (A) agree to liquidate the firm when firm size reaches kt = 0. • Denote by τ = inf{t ≥ 0| kt = 0} the time of liquidation. • (P) promises to award (A) a constant flow of compensation c (severance pay) and

allows (A) to choose e = 0 from time τ on. • To keep her promise with (A),

E

Z



 e−β (t−τ ) u(c, 0) dt = qτ , or c = ln(−qτ rβ )−1/r

τ

• The (P)’s value function from liquidation is

J (0, qτ ) = E

Z τ



 (rβ )−λ e−β (t−τ ) v(−c) dt = −(−qτ )−λ · Rβ

24 / 45

S TEP 4-2: C ONJECTURE OF J (k, q)

From the (P)’s exponential utility and the form of (P)’s value function from liquidation, (rβ )−λ J (0, qτ ) = −(−qτ )−λ · , Rβ we conjecture that J (k, q) takes a form of J (k, q) = −(−q)−λ exp(−θ (k)), where θ (k) is a C2 -function satisfying the value matching condition h i θ (0) = ln Rβ (rβ )λ .

25 / 45

S TEP 4-3: D ERIVE E ULER E QUATIONS P ROPOSITION 3.1. Let (e∗ (k), θ (k)) be a solution to the system of ODEs, e0 (k) = F (θ (k), e(k), k)

and θ 0 (k) = G(e(k), k)

  with the initial condition (e∗ (0), θ (0)) = a, ln Rβ (rβ )λ . Write the flow of compensation and dividend as  0  ( k + h ) e∗ ( k ) 2 1 θ (k )ψ ∗ (k ) 1 ∗ c (k, q) = − ln − ln(−q) 2a r λ r h i 1 1 d∗ (k, q) = θ (k) − ln θ 0 (k) + ln(−q). R r Then J (k, q) = −(−q)−λ exp(−θ (k)) is a solution to the HJB and the triplet (c∗ , d∗ , e∗ ) constitutes the optimal contract. Evolution

Derivation

26 / 45

S TEP 5: V ERIFY THE S OLUTION

T HEOREM 3.1. A solution J (k, q) to the HJB equation provides the principal’s value function. That is, given initial firm size k0 and the agent’s reservation utility q0 , the value the principal can accrue from any incentive-compatible contract is at most J (k0 , q0 ).

27 / 45

1. Introduction 2. The Model 3. Analysis 4. Results 4.1 The Optimal Effort Policy 4.2 The Optimal Compensation Scheme 4.3 The Optimal Investment Policy 5. Conclusion

28 / 45

F IRM S IZE E FFECT ON e∗ (1) e∗ is a function of k due to (A)’s CARA utility. (2) When firm size is small enough, i.e., k ≈ 0, the optimal contract implements the first-best effort: lim e∗ (k) = a = eF . k→0+

√ I NTUITION : σ kt dWt ≈ 0 and yt dt ≈ het dt, so full information. (3) For k > 0, e∗ (k) < a. (Also bounded below) (4) When firm size is large enough, however, the optimal contract restores efficiency: lim e∗ (k) = a = eF .

k→∞

I NTUITION : The signal-to-noise ratio increases as the firm grows!

29 / 45

Figure: The Optimal Effort Policy over Firm Size for h = a = 1, β = δ = 0.01, R = 0.05, r = 4, and σ = 0.28.

30 / 45

P RODUCTION E FFICIENCY

P ROPOSITION 4.1. Production inefficiency arising from moral hazard is bounded: 0 < (k + h)(a − e∗ (k)) <

1 R+r

for all k ∈ (0, ∞).

Furthermore, lim (k + h)(a − e∗ (k)) =

k→∞

1 , R+r

provided that the limit exists.

31 / 45

1. Introduction 2. The Model 3. Analysis 4. Results 4.1 The Optimal Effort Policy 4.2 The Optimal Compensation Scheme 4.3 The Optimal Investment Policy 5. Conclusion

32 / 45

F IRM S IZE E FFECT ON c∗

Recall that the optimal compensation scheme takes a form of  0  (kt + h)e∗ (kt )2 1 θ (kt )ψ ∗ (kt ) 1 c∗ (kt , qt ) = − ln − ln(−qt ). 2a r λ r

• Since (A)’s flow utility is CARA, qt < 0 so ln(−qt ) is well-defined. • c∗ is a function of both state variables, but is additively separable. • A change in kt affects c∗ along the two separate paths: (1) direct effect through the first two terms. (2) indirect effect through qt in the last term.

33 / 45

"D IRECT " F IRM S IZE E FFECT ON c∗ To examine the first effect, we fix qt and disregard the indirect effect.  0  (kt + h)e∗ (kt )2 1 θ ( kt ) ψ ∗ ( kt ) 1 c∗ (kt , qt ) = − ln(−qt ). − ln 2a r λ r | {z } | {z } = (i)

= (ii)

(i) Compensation for the agent’s effort. (ii) Adjustment of Compensation for Future Production. • When firm size is small, (A) is not fully compensated for the effort cost. • When firm size is large, (A) is compensated more than the effort cost. • Wage Dynamics: Back-loading in a small firm but front-loading in a large firm. • Given qt , it can be shown that

lim u(c∗ (k, q), e∗ (k)) < lim u(c∗ (k, q), e∗ (k)).

k→0

k→∞

• The level of compensation increases with firm size.

34 / 45

"I NDIRECT " F IRM S IZE E FFECT ON c∗ To accommodate the indirect effect, we apply the It¯o’s lemma to dqt   p 1 dqt σ 0 = β − θ 0 (kt )ψ ∗ (kt ) dt − θ (kt )e∗ (kt )ψ ∗ (kt ) kt dWt . qt R λa

and obtain ln(−qt ) = ln(−q0 ) − −

1 2

Z t σ 0

λa

Z t σ 0

λa

θ 0 ( ks ) e∗ ( ks ) ψ ∗ ( ks )

θ 0 (ks )e∗ (ks )ψ ∗ (ks )

p ks dWs

 Z t p 2 1 β − θ 0 (ks )ψ ∗ (ks ) ds. ks ds + R 0

• The effect gives rise to 4 additional components: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)

Reservation Utility Compensation Risk due to Moral Hazard: provides a short-term incentive Risk Premium due to the Risk Allocation of Compensation over Time (for promise-keeping).

35 / 45

S HORT-T ERM I NCENTIVE P ROVISION

Recall that the compensation risk term takes a form of σ λa

Z t 0

θ 0 (ks )e∗ (ks )ψ ∗ (ks ) | {z }

p ks dWs .

approaches zero as k ↑ 0

and provides the incentive for effort at time t. • Note that the integrand dwindles away to zero as k grows large, implying that the

risk exposed to (A) decreases. • This contributes to decreasing pay-performance sensitivity.

36 / 45

PAY-P ERFORMANCE S ENSITIVITY J ENSEN AND M URPHY (1990) defined pay-performance sensitivity (PPS) as dollar change in CEO wealth dollar change in firm value and estimated the following linear model: ∆(Wage)it = α0 + α1 ∆(Firm Value)it . They reported that PPS α1 decreases over firm size. • In a continuous-time framework, PPS can be measured by

γc ( k t ) ≡

c∗t+∆ − c∗t volatility of ct σc = = √ kt+∆ − kt ∆→0 volatility of kt σ kt

• Using the previous decomposition formula, we compute σc and prove

lim γc (k) < lim γc (k).

k→∞

k→0

37 / 45

S UMMARY

The increasing signal-to-noise ratio is the main driving force behind (i) e∗ (k) → a; (ii) getting back production efficiency; (iii) diminishing compensation risks; (iv) decreasing pay-performance sensitivity.

38 / 45

1. Introduction 2. The Model 3. Analysis 4. Results 4.1 The Optimal Effort Policy 4.2 The Optimal Compensation Scheme 4.3 The Optimal Investment Policy 5. Conclusion

39 / 45

P ROPERTIES OF I ∗

• Recall that investment is the remaining cash flow after the payouts,

dIt = dYt − (ct + dt )dt • Define the expected rate of optimal investment as

It∗ ≡

d ∗ dt E [It |kt , qt ]

= (kt + h)e∗ (kt ) − c∗ (kt , qt ) − d∗ (kt , qt ).

• A key implication of assuming that v(dt ) is also exponential is

It∗ is a function of kt only, i.e., It∗ = I ∗ (kt ). I NTUITION : It∗ is unaffected by the level of wealth, but qt has an impact on the remaining cash flow only.

40 / 45

F IRM S IZE AND I NVESTMENT D ISTORTION

The previous property enables us to compare I ∗ and I F at each k. P ROPOSITION 4.2. When firm size is small, there is under-investment: lim I F (k) > lim I ∗ (k).

k→0

k→0

As the firm grows large enough, however, there is over-investment: lim I F (k) < lim I ∗ (k).

k→∞

k→∞

41 / 45

I NTERPRETATION Why under-investment in a small firm? • The agency problem decreases the expected rate of return from investment.

∂ ∂ (k + h)e∗ (k) < (k + h)a. ∂k ∂k • It is (unambiguously) predicted by all dynamic investment literature, e.g.,

D E M ARZO ET. AL . (2012), regardless of firm size. Why over-investment in a large firm? • Recall that production efficiency is retrieved in a large firm. • As the firm grows, there is no wedge between I ∗ and I F . • In our model, (P) is assumed to be risk-averse. • The amount of risk (P) has to bear in the optimal contract is smaller than in the

first-best one.

42 / 45

C OMPARISON OF R ISK -S HARING P OLICIES IN A L ARGE F IRM Each entry in the below table indicates sensitivity of a policy to changes in firm value: lim

k→∞

the volatility of a contractual term √ . σ k Pareto-Optimal RS

Second-Best RS

Compensation (↓)

a λ A1 + · 2 λ +1 R

a 2

Dividend (↓)

1 A1 · λ +1 R

0

Investment (↑)

a A1 − 2 R

a 2

Total Risk

a

a

43 / 45

1. Introduction 2. The Model 3. Analysis 4. Results 4.1 The Optimal Effort Policy 4.2 The Optimal Compensation Scheme 4.3 The Optimal Investment Policy 5. Conclusion

44 / 45

C ONCLUDING R EMARKS

We provided a simple framework to study the implications of the size-dependence regularity for dynamic incentive provision and investment. (1) The regularity leads to the increasing signal-to-noise ratio. • Production efficiency in a large firm and decreasing PPS over firm size.

(2) The regularity has implications for investment at the firm level. • There can be either under-investment or over-investment, depending on firm size.

45 / 45

A. A PPENDIX

1/3

E VOLUTION OF S TATE VARIABLES

C OROLLARY 1. Under the optimal contract, the two state variables kt and qt evolve according to p dkt = [(kt + h)e∗ (kt ) − c∗ − d∗ − δ kt ] dt + σ kt dWt   p dqt σ 1 0 ∗ = β − θ (kt )ψ (kt ) dt − θ 0 (kt )e∗ (kt )ψ ∗ (kt ) kt dWt . qt R λa Go Back

2/3

S ECOND -B EST C ONTRACT • The FOC for e reduces to θ 0 (k ) =

a(k + h)λ (a − e) ≡ G(e, k), σ 2 kψ (k, e)[−λ a + (λ + 1)eψ (k, e)]

where ψ (k, e) = 1 +

r (k + h) e(e − a). a

• Substituting (c∗ , d∗ , e∗ ) back into the HJB gives   1 2 ψ (k, e) 2(1 + λ )β G ( e ( k ) , k ) − I ( k ) + δ k + − R r σ2 σ2 "   # e(k)ψ (k, e(k)) λ + 1 e(k)ψ (k, e(k)) 2 + kG2 (e(k), k) 1 − 2 + ≡ H (θ (k ), e(k ), k ) a λ a

kθ 00 (k) =

• The ODE F of e∗ results from e0 ( k ) =

  1 H (θ (k ), e(k ), k ) − Gk (e(k), k) ≡ F (θ (k), e(k), k). Ge (e(k), k) k Go Back

3/3

THE IMPACT OF FIRM SIZE ON DYNAMIC ...

Jul 2, 2016 - Theme: Dynamic Contracting Model + Capital Accumulation Model ..... To accommodate the indirect effect, we apply the It¯o's lemma to dqt dqt.

361KB Sizes 0 Downloads 211 Views

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framework. Section 6 reports the main empirical results, and Section 7 describes some ...... Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner. ... Wallace, Phyllis A. “Equal Employment Opportunity and the AT&T Case, Cambridge:.

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interactive process to design systems more suited to user ... user clicks on a link or requests a Web page during its ses- sion. ...... Tpc-w e-commerce benchmark.