Skillful Means

China

The Challenges of China’s Encounter With Factory Farming

Brighter Green is a New York–based public policy action tank that aims to raise awareness and encourage dialogue on and attention to issues that span the environment, animals, and sustainable development both globally and locally. Brighter Green’s work has a particular focus on equity and rights. On its own and in partnership with other organizations and individuals, Brighter Green generates and incubates research and project initiatives that are both visionary and practical. It produces publications, websites, documentary films, and implements programs to illuminate public debate among policy-makers, activists, communities, influential leaders, and the media, with the goal of social transformation at local and international levels. Brighter Green works in the United States and internationally, with a focus on the countries of the global South. This policy paper is published as part of Brighter Green’s Food Policy and Equity Program. Policy papers and documentary videos on climate change and industrial animal agriculture in Brazil, China, Ethiopia, and India, along with additional resources on the globalization of factory farming, are available on Brighter Green’s website: www.brightergreen.org. Brighter Green welcomes feedback on this publication and other aspects of its work. This publication may be disseminated, copied, or translated freely with the express permission of Brighter Green. Email: [email protected]

Report Credits Written and researched by: Mia MacDonald and Sangamithra Iyer Additional research: Whitney Hoot Design and layout: Justine Simon and Whitney Hoot Thanks to Chris Barden, Philip Brooke, Joyce D’Silva, Linden J. Ellis, Gu Xianhong, Jian Yi, Peter Li, Elaine Matthews, Susan Prolman, Martin Rowe, Douglas Xiao, Anna Zheng, Jeff Zhou, Stella Zhou, and the photographers who post on Flickr.

Photo Credits Cover—Pigs on a truck being transported, Jiangxi province, What’s for Dinner?, Brighter Green; p. 5—Ben Paarmann, Flickr; p. 7—What’s for Dinner?, Brighter Green; p. 11—What’s for Dinner?, Brighter Green; p. 12—SpirosK, Flickr; p. 14—Remko Tanis, Flickr; p. 15—What’s for Dinner?, Brighter Green; p. 16—Peter Li, HSI/CIWF; p. 18—Peter Li, HSI/CIWF; p. 19—Ryan Schultz, Flickr; p. 20 —What’s for Dinner?, Brighter Green. Copyright © Brighter Green 2011 Printed on 30% recycled paper

www.brightergreen.org

C

hina is now the world’s largest producer—and consumer—of agricultural products.1 As its rapid economic expansion has allowed

more and more Chinese to enter the new middle class, meat has moved from the side of the dinner plate to the center. For many modern, particularly urban Chinese, meat and dairy products have come to signify wealth, status, modernity, freedom, and a welcome escape from the hardscrabble lives their parents and grandparents—or they themselves— led in the countryside. Nearly half of China’s people live in urban areas for more than six months a year, and urban Chinese consume more meat and dairy products than do those in rural parts of China.2 Only two generations after a devastating national famine, more and more Chinese are eating higher on the food chain. By 2002, the number of calories the average person in China consumed from animal products each day was 618, a nearly fourfold increase from the 174 daily calories from animal products documented in 1980.3 In the past, “children looked forward to the spring festival, partly because it was fun, but also because it was a chance to eat meat,” Zhang Xiuwen, a farmer turned Beijing tennis coach, told a UK newspaper. “But,” he continued, “now we can eat meat every day if we want. It has become part of our lives.”4 Over the past ten years, consumption of China’s most popular meat, pork, has doubled.5 In 2007, China raised well over half a billion pigs. Since 1980, overall meat consumption in China has quadrupled to its current level, 54 kilograms, or 119 pounds a person each year, and is continuing to rise. That’s about half the annual meat consumption per capita in the U.S., which hovers around 100 kilograms (220 pounds), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.6 (The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that U.S. per capita consumption is even higher: 279 pounds of meat each year.) In yuan terms, meat is the second largest segment of China’s retail food market. Western-style meat culture

has gone mainstream. On warm evenings in Beijing, when couples foxtrot in a public square, they do so beneath an enormous billboard for an American steakhouse chain. U.S. fast food outlets are now commonplace in China’s cities, and fast food in China is a $28-billion-a-year business.7

Strains Showing China has also opened its doors to investments by major multinational meat and dairy producers, as well as animal feed corporations, including Tyson, Smithfield, and Novus International. Keen to increase output, these corporations and the Chinese government are championing the intensive systems of raising farmed animals that have become commonplace in industrialized countries: small, battery cages for egg-laying hens; metal stalls for pigs; sheds holding thousands of meat or broiler chickens; and feedlots for dairy and meat cattle. Even though China is not yet a fully fledged “factory farm nation,” strains from its fast-growing livestock sector, and burgeoning appetite for animal-based protein, are showing—in massive water pollution, soil degradation, rising rates of obesity and chronic disease, risks to food security and food safety, pressure on small farmers, and declining farm animal welfare. Given that nearly every fifth person in the world is Chinese, even small increases in individual meat or dairy consumption will have broad, collective environmental as well as climate impacts. Increasingly, what the Chinese eat, and how China produces its food, affects not only China, but also the world. The questions this paper seeks to explore are: Will China be able to match the meat and dairy consumption of

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the U.S., given the ecological, economic, public health, and animal welfare realities of the industrial production model? And, when all the facts are on the table, will it want to?

meet national demand, and to become the world’s fourthlargest exporter of live and slaughtered pigs. China now consumes 92 billion pounds of pork a year (42 billion kgs), or a fifth of a pound a day (about 100 grams) for every man, Livestock Economy woman, and child.14 China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top producer In 2007, however, “blue ear,” or porcine reproductive of meat chickens and pigs. It also raises two-thirds of the and respiratory disease, hit China’s pork industry hard. world’s domestic ducks and 90 percent of geese used for Tens of thousands of pigs died from blue ear, and accordmeat. While its cattle herd is still relatively small, demand ing to the government, 175,000, and perhaps more, for beef is rising and China expects its beef output (from were culled in an effort to prevent the disease’s spread. 15 8 cows and buffaloes) to continue to grow. Beef production Severe snowstorms in China in early 2008 killed another in 2007 increased over 6 percent from 2006 levels to 6.15 800,000 pigs.16 million metric tons, although 2008 production fell slightly. As a result, pork prices rose over 70 percent in a year, (In 2010, China is to become contributing to the highest level 9 a net importer of beef, with of inflation seen in the Chinese The questions this paper seeks to explore imports expanding 30 percent economy since 1996.17 Historiare: Will China be able to match the over 2009 levels.) cally, pork has had a central role meat and dairy consumption of the U.S., China has only 10 percent in Chinese cuisine and culture; given the ecological, economic, public of the world’s land resourcthe Chinese character for health, and animal welfare realities of the es and 6 percent of its water “home” even includes a glyph industrial production model? And, when all resources, as well as nearly 20 for a pig. the facts are on the table, will it want to? percent of the world’s populaConcerned about the negation, yet it produces 20 percent tive social and economic of pork of the world’s corn, 30 percent shortages (pork is a staple in the of its rice, 25 percent of its cotton, 37 percent of its fruit and diet of workers staffing China’s booming export factories), in vegetables, and over half of its pork. China also has become 2007 the government scaled up its pork imports. It also took a major exporter of garlic, apples, apple juice, vegetables, other measures to ensure social stability through access to and farm-raised fish and shrimp.10 pork. The ministry of education ordered colleges and univerUntil recently, China has been largely self-sufficient in sities to subsidize pork on campuses instead of raising prices; protein and grain, for both human and farm animal consumpthe civil affairs ministry told municipal governments to subsition. Most of the meat China produced has been consumed dize the pork bought by low-income families; and the railwithin the country. But this is changing. China now imports road ministry was directed to give priority to pig shipments. some meat products, as well as dairy and feed grains from, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao even visited a pork counter at a among others, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, and Ireland Xian supermarket and called for the government to pay pig and other European Union member states. farmers to increase production.18 In addition to meat, dairy, too, is an expanding indusDemonstrating the importance of pork in China, and try (an average of 20 percent a year over the past decade), the government’s interest in forestalling any negative while, since 2000, consumption of milk products in China social or economic effects of pork shortages, central and 11 has tripled. The Chinese government is providing dairies local governments maintain a “strategic pork reserve.” with tax incentives and loans to increase herd size and While other nations maintain strategic oil or grain productivity. But high feed prices and capacity constraints reserves, China is the only country with a strategic pork have tamped down growth somewhat. In 2007, China’s milk reserve, which consists of hundreds of thousands of 12 output rose 9.5 percent over 2006 levels. In future years, if frozen and live pigs.19 demand continues to increase, China could become a major To scale up pork production further, the Chinese 13 importer of milk. government is now applying subsidy, insurance, and vacciOn a parallel track, the government and Chinese and nation programs. Despite these measures, output in 2008 is foreign agribusinesses are seeking to increase China’s share estimated to rise by only 1 percent from 2007 levels. China of the global meat market. By raising nearly 700 million pigs was expected to import pork again in 2008, about 150,000 each year, China has, until recently, had enough supply to metric tons of it.20

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Eating Meat

in

Revenge

“When I was a child, every person was allotted 1 pound of pork a month,” recalls Peter Li, who grew up in Jiangxi province in southeast China and is now a professor of political science at the University of Houston in the U.S. state of Texas. “We could not eat more than that. You could not get it. Now, though, more people have access to more meat and want to eat a lot of it.”39 In becoming an agricultural powerhouse, and a leading protein producer, China is overcoming a bitter historical legacy. The Chinese, Li suggests, are now “eating meat in revenge” for past disastrous government actions, and that the Chinese government is concerned that if it cannot supply meat in sufficient quantities, social unrest may ensue. Between 1959 and 1961, a period known in China as the “Three Years of Economic Difficulty,” or “Three Bitter Years,” a cataclysmic national famine took the lives of at least 30 million Chinese. The famine wasn’t the result of a natural disaster like floods, storms, drought, or an earthquake, but rather policies adopted by Mao Zedong’s government that led to the stockpiling of grain in government warehouses amid massive food shortages throughout the countryside. In the midst of the Great Leap Forward and the continuing collectivization of agriculture, the Communist Party newspaper The People’s Daily announced in late 1959, that “the peasants must practice strict economy. Live with the utmost frugality and eat only two meals a day, one of which should be soft and liquid.” 40 Most Chinese forty years or older remember growing up hungry, without the food security many younger Chinese now take for granted. From the late 1970s on, under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, collective agriculture ended in China, diets diversified, farm income grew, and poverty

and

China, Livestock, Greenhouse Gas Emissions

China, home to about 20 percent of the world’s population, is responsible for about 17.3 percent of the world’s emissions of greenhouse gases. In 2008, China surpassed the U.S. to become the world’s leading emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), according to a study by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.21 Per capita emissions of CO2 in China have more than doubled, from 2.1 tons of CO2 equivalent in 1990 to 5.1 tons today.22 In examining China’s contribution to climate change, its rapidly growing livestock sector is an important factor.

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are generated at every stage of livestock production.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) attributes to the global livestock industry 9 percent of anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 emissions; 37 percent of anthropogenic methane emissions; and 65 percent of anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions.23 Methane and nitrous oxide, though lower in concentration in the atmosphere than CO2, are far more potent heat-trapping gases. They have, respectively, 23 and 296 times the global warming potential of CO2, making their production in large quantities a serious concern.24

Carbon Dioxide: CO2 is produced by the use of fossil fuels in facilities that raise

and process animals for food, as well as transport them either live to slaughter or export, or dead, to local, national, or international markets. Significant quantities of CO2 are also released through the production of feed crops for livestock (see below).

Methane: Farm animals contribute to global methane emissions primarily in the

form of enteric fermentation. This is part of the digestive process of ruminants, in which microbes break down fibrous feeds. Methane is created as a by-product and released through belching and flatulence. Globally, enteric fermentation is responsible for about 27 percent of man-made methane emissions. Enteric fermentation in livestock in China contributes roughly 10 percent of global methane emissions from this source.25 In this, China still ranks behind India and Brazil, the world’s top emitters due to their large ruminant populations.26

How much methane ruminants produce is a function of their diet. Animals used

in dairy production typically emit more methane per animal than those raised for meat. This is because dairy animals are fed larger quantities of food to keep milk production high (in some cases, three to four times as much food as is required to sustain them), and, generally, they live longer.

In industrialized facilities, ruminants are fed grain as a quick and efficient means to

fatten them. While these animals emit less methane per unit of feed, they consume far more feed than animals raised on pasture, and are generally larger. As a result, methane emissions from each individual animal in a factory farm or feedlot can be much higher than from those raised in non-industrial settings. 27 As large-scale meat and dairy operations increase in China, methane emissions from enteric fermentation are likely to grow, too.

Animal manure is an additional source of methane.The amount of methane emit-

ted varies depending on how the manure is managed. Methane emissions are significantly higher in industrial operations, where manure is often stored in lagoons and de(continued next page)

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China, Livestock,

and

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

(continued from page 3) composition of the waste takes place

tion process and wastes generated by

grain and soy, much of which is used

in anaerobic conditions (that is, with-

animals, production of feed contributes

in livestock production. According to

out oxygen), than in facilities where

heavily to the climate footprint of the

the EDGAR greenhouse gas inventory,

manure is dried and used as fuel or

livestock sector. Globally, more than half of

deforestation in China in 2000 result-

fertilizer. Already, China is the world’s

the energy used to produce meat, milk,

ed in the release of 7.36 million tons

largest source of methane from ma-

and eggs is for feed production. Soil culti-

of CO2; in Brazil, which supplies China

nure, emitting roughly 3.84 million tons

vation related to animal agriculture emits

with the majority of its soybeans, defor-

in 2004—more than one-fifth of the

about 28 million tons of CO2 a year.32

estation accounted for nearly 760 million

global total. The majority of these



tons of CO2.35

emissions come from Chinese pig op-

stem from growing crops for animal



erations. But as meat and milk produc-

feed, specifically production of widely

amount of agricultural land and re-

tion in China increases and becomes

used chemical- and nitrogen-based fer-

sources to animal feed has consider-

more concentrated and industrialized,

tilizers and petroleum-based pesticides.

able implications for climate change.

methane emissions from manure from

Carbon is also released when forests or

Globally, roughly 41 million tons of CO2

other farmed animals will also rise.

other vegetation are cleared to create

is emitted each year producing the ni-



In 2000, farmed animals in China

pasture for grazing animals or cropland

trogen fertilizers used in feed produc-

raised in confined conditions, such as

for animal feed. While there is consid-

tion. Of that 41 million tons, China pro-

factory farms, generated roughly 1.4

erable uncertainty in calculating the

duces more than 14 million. Roughly 16

billion tons of manure, an amount

greenhouse gases associated with these

percent of the nitrogen fertilizer China

expected to increase by 36 percent

land-use changes, the FAO approxi-

manufactures each year is used to pro-

in 2030, to 1.9 billion tons. Over the

mates roughly 2.4 billion tons of CO2

duce animal feed.36

same period, the population of live-

are emitted annually from deforestation



stock is expected to increase by two

to create livestock pasture and cropland

China for animal-feed production also

to four times current levels.

for animal feed.33

account for about 20 percent of the



In addition, an estimated 100 mil-

country’s coal-derived energy.37 As

also emit nitrous oxide. Estimates us-

lion tons of CO2 are released annually

a fuel, coal is extremely greenhouse

ing 2004 data put China’s

34

from livestock-induced desertification.

gas–intensive. Methane is generated

oxide emissions from animal wastes

Grains like corn and soy—processed

during mining of the coal, and CO2 is

at roughly 0.58 million tons. That is ap-

into commercial animal feed—are of-

released when it is burned. Based on

proximately 16 percent of the global

ten transported long distances, again

demand projections for animal prod-

contribution of nitrous oxide from ani-

through the use of fossil fuels, to factory

ucts in 2030, China’s fertilizer require-

mal wastes. Again, as the livestock in-

farms and feedlots.

ments may increase from 35 million

dustry in China intensifies, these emis-



While it is difficult to pinpoint

tons in 2000 to 42 million and then 46

sions can be expected to rise.

China’s contributions to these direct

million tons in 2015 and 2030 respec-

Feed and GHGs: In addition to

and indirect emissions, it should be

tively.38 As they do, so will associated

the GHGs resulting from the diges-

noted that China is a large consumer of

GHG emissions. n

28

29



30

Nitrous Oxide: Animal wastes nitrous

31



Further, indirect CO2 emissions

rates dropped. The amount of land dedicated to grain fell, as more land was dedicated to non-grain crops and livestock.41 Even as China remained largely self sufficient in food into the 21st century, economists, environmentalists, and food and agriculture policy-makers have wondered, given its huge population, “Who will feed China?” Now, as China’s meat consumption continues to grow, a new version of the question is being posed: “Who will feed China’s pigs?”

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In addition, devoting a significant

Chemical fertilizers made in

Grain requirements for farmed animals are expanding rapidly in many parts of the world. It takes between two and ten times the amount of grain to produce the same number of calories through livestock as it does through eating grain directly.42 China, for instance, now allots 28.5 percent of its grain for livestock feed, up from 13.3 percent in 1980.43 The U.S., the original “fast food nation,” uses about

half its grain for animal feed. 44 In industrialized countries, intensive animal agriculture came to dominate during a roughly fifty-year period after the Second World War when both grain and fuel were relatively cheap. Many economists now judge that era at an end. Agribusiness in the U.S. and elsewhere is feeling the effects of rising oil and feed costs; in the U.S., a leading poultry producer, Pilgrim’s Pride, has shut processing facilities, citing high feed costs.45 China is not immune: in 2008, animal feed costs rose by 25 percent over 2007 levels.46 This trend has persisted. Prices in China for key feed ingredients corn and soymeal increased 23.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, between March 2009 and March 2010.47

Scale Models Advocates of large-scale production assert that intensifying livestock operations is essential if the world’s increasing human population is to be fed. But a growing number of analysts, joined by policy-makers in the U.S., Europe, and within the UN system, argue that it is precisely this industrial model of agriculture that risks creating more food insecurity, and more dire ecological conditions, than it can remedy. Yet it is this model of production that is being replicated in China, with the support of multinational agribusiness corporations, eager to help provide meat and dairy to a population of more than 1.3 billion people. Most analysts agree that the Chinese government considers intensification necessary to meet demand for animal products. In its calculus, food security means meat. China’s population is more than four times that of the U.S., so the industrial animal agriculture industry in China could grow to an enormous size. In China today, most of the larger-scale livestock facilities, approximately 80 percent, are located in densely populated areas, near major cities and, therefore, big markets for meat and dairy.48 Different components of the industry tend to be concentrated in specific regions of the country: poultry in the southeast; pork in central China, centered in Sichuan, the leading pig-producing province; and dairies in the north.49 Most animals raised for meat or dairy are still produced on small- and medium-sized farms, but, “the proportion of factory farming [in China] is rising gradually” says Gu Xianhong, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science’s Institute of Animal Sciences. According to Gu, 90 percent of China’s pork, 85 percent of beef, 65 percent of mutton, 82 percent of poultry meat, and 94 percent of eggs come from mixed farming systems, in which both animals and crops are raised, and the animals’ manure fertilizes the fields.50 Research by Peter Li in 2005, however, found that China

Sheep at a cattle market in Kashgar, Xinjiang province

by the end of 2003 already had 53,210 factory-style farms of more than 500 pigs, dairy cows, beef cattle, and sheep.51 Li categorized operations as intensive based on the number of animals being raised, the use of commercial feed, and frequent use of disease-controlling drugs. Some small- and medium-sized operations also house animals in cramped conditions and routinely use antibiotics and other drugs common to intensive livestock operations. Commercial feed and other modern farming practices from gestation crates to early weaning had been used widely on these farms. Li’s research also indicated that factory farms in China are still vastly outnumbered by household-run backyard farms raising, for example, one to nine pigs. At the same time, though, China’s large farming operations account for a disproportionate amount of animal products. Li estimated that in 2003, 4 percent of China’s poultry operations produced 84 percent of its “broiler” chickens. Also in 2003, 28 percent of pork output was generated by just 4 percent of pig-raising facilities.52 The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) foresees global consumption of meat rising to 300 million metric tons by 2015. Poultry will comprise half, and 40 percent of production will be in Asia, principally China.53 A recent study jointly undertaken by the International Insti-

5

rapid development of farmland, and growing market consoltute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, the Chinese idation favor larger producers.59 Academy of Sciences, China Agricultural University, and the In 2006, according to China’s National Development and Center for World Food Studies at the Free University in the Reform Commission (NDRC), the government budgeted ¥2.8 Netherlands, sought to project per capita consumption of billion for breeding farms and large-scale facilities to raise animal products in both rural and urban China in 2030. The pigs and to promote pork production and ensure a supply; research looked at current trends, and from those estimatalong with ¥70 million and ¥5.6 billion to construct poultry ed the “need” for a rapid expansion of intensive systems of facilities and new livestock farms, respectively.60 In addition, production.54 the government is increasing subsidies up to ¥1 million for By 2030, the study concluded, intensive pig operations will breeder-chicken facilities.61 need to increase 3 to 3.5 times; broiler poultry operations 4.5 to The government is also 5 times; and egg operations 2 to planning to allocate more funds 2.5 times, all from 2000 levels.55 A growing number of analysts, joined by to the livestock sector in regions It is Li’s analysis that it policy-makers in the U.S., Europe, and within hard hit in 2008 by snowstorms will be difficult to convince the the UN system, argue that it is precisely this and the severe earthquake in Chinese government or people industrial model of agriculture that risks Sichuan province. The snowto move away from the intencreating more food insecurity, and more dire storms killed an estimated 70 sive model, not least because ecological conditions, than it can remedy. million farm animals, and, along of the perception that this is the West once more telling the East what to do and trying to stop the government from feeding its people a diet long taken for granted in the West—where, Chinese government officials have pointed out, consumption levels of chicken, beef, dairy products, corn, and wheat are substantially higher on a per capita basis than in China.56 Some in the West have publicly chastised China for its rising grain usage, even though most analysts agree this has yet to affect world markets significantly. U.S. Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, a major corn-producing state with large numbers of factory farms, recently suggested that the Chinese “go back and eat rice” if they don’t like American corn being used for ethanol production.57

Full Speed Ahead? Whether China will be able to intensify production on a level akin to that of the U.S. or expand its share of the world protein-export market are open questions. Among the challenges: concerns abroad and at home about Chinese food safety standards; ecological limits; rising prices of grain and oil, both essential inputs for large-scale industrial animal agriculture; and public health.58 Li says that the Chinese government is aware of the issues, but that it is torn in two directions: on the one hand, the need to regulate use and abuse of natural resources; on the other, to produce a large quantity of food. So far, the government has favored the latter. The process of intensification of animal agriculture in China appears to be accelerating. Consequently, smaller-scale farmers are finding it harder to compete, as government policies, rural labor shortages,

6

with the earthquake, damaged livestock breeding facilities in Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Hubei, Guangxi, Anhui, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Gansu provinces.62 In the Sichuan earthquake, almost 90,000 people lost their lives.63 In addition, 3 million pigs and 12.5 million birds being raised for eggs and meat, mostly in backyards, were killed. It is estimated that 30 million people were affected by the quake—losing, in some cases, homes, farmland, livestock, grain storage facilities, and farm machinery; rice fields and rice seeds were damaged. Losses to the agriculture sector from the earthquake have been estimated at $6 billion; in some villages, 70 percent of livestock died.64 As a result of the earthquake, Sichuan is likely to see more intensive animal agriculture and fewer small farmers, according to an executive with the CP Group, China’s largest agribusiness corporation. New farming developments will be primarily medium- and larger-scale farms, as the government plans tougher construction standards for rural buildings, which will cover farms as well. This will favor larger, factory farm facilities that can house up to 1,500 pigs or 10,000 chickens in a single indoor shed.65

Corporate Involvement As with many aspects of its economy, China’s government has welcomed foreign investors and partners in the animal agriculture sector, as both producers and retailers. McDonald’s, a major sponsor of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, had more than 800 restaurants in China at the time of the games (and operated four outlets within Olympic venues).68 It now has more than 1,100, of which more than 100 are drive-

through operations,69 and plans to expand to 2,000 McDonpoultry farms in China’s Hunan and Fujian provinces for $300 ald’s outlets in China by 2013.70 million.79 And in 2009, New York-based Kohlberg, Kravis, China is the world’s second largest advertising market, Roberts, & Co. (KKR) invested $150 million in Modern Dairy, after the U.S. and, like many retailers, success in China is a large industrial dairy company in China’s Anhui province. essential to fast food corporations’ bottom lines. The tagline With KKR’s stake, Modern Dairy plans to open an additional on McDonald’s-China’s Olympic-themed ads practically 20 to 30 factory dairy operations throughout China.80 71 declares this fact: “I’m lovin’ it when China wins” it read. The trend is also going in the reverse direction. China KFC was the first Western fast itself is investing in multinationfood chain to gain a foothold in al protein producers—including China, opening its first restauthose from the U.S., Europe, and rant in 1987. Its parent company, elsewhere in Asia. In July 2008, Yum Brands, now operates 3,000 the state-owned China National 72 KFCs as well as nearly 500 Pizza Oils, Foodstuffs and Cereals Huts around the country,73 with Corporation (COFCO), China’s 74 over $2 billion in annual sales. largest food importer/exporter More than other fast and a Fortune 500 company, food giants, Yum has tailored bought a 5 percent share in its menu to Chinese tastes, Smithfield Foods, the largest hog serving—in addition to fried producer in the U.S.81 In 2007, chicken—fish, porridge, and egg Smithfield began exporting pork dishes. The company estimates products to China. The company There are 3,000 KFC locations in China. that within a decade, 40 percent has sales of $11 billion a year, of its profits could come from its but its business practices have Chinese operations, and that it raised concerns. Manure from may eventually have 20,000 outlets total in China, nearly 10 the company’s hog facilities has polluted creeks and rivers in times as many as today. “We’re in the first inning of a ninethe U.S. state of North Carolina, and it has been accused of inning ball game in China,” David Novak, Yum’s Chief Execuintimidating unions, hiring illegal immigrants, and violating tive Officer, recently told Reuters.75 labor laws.82 As with fast food companies, for many agribusiness COFCO, which currently produces 500,000 pigs a year, companies, succeeding in the enormous Chinese market is wants to increase that number to 10 to 15 million annualessential to future profits. In February 2008, U.S.-based Tyson, ly within three to five years.83 One of the intentions of the the world’s biggest meat corporation, announced a deal with investment in Smithfield is to gain its support in making privately owned Jinghai Poultry Industry Group to produce COFCO China’s leading pig producer. According to Zhang and process chickens to be sold under the Tyson brand label. Xin Yue, a COFCO spokesman, the company aims to get the Through the joint venture, construction of a new poultry American corporation’s expertise to produce “healthy hogs” operation in Haiman City, near Shanghai, will be completed on a large scale.84 that initially will process 400,000 birds a week. When at full In order for its standards to meet those of the U.S., capacity in 2010, it will produce 1 million birds each week.76 potentially opening a lucrative export market, COFCO In July 2008, Tyson signed a preliminary agreement to has allotted ¥12 billion ($1.74 billion) for what it calls the buy 60 percent of the Shandong Xinchang Group, based near “Ecologically Healthy Live Hogs Breeding Program.” As part Qingdao in Shandong province and the fifth largest poultry of the initiative, pigs will be allotted 16.5 square feet of living producer in China. In 2007, Xinchang had sales of $289 million. space each. That may be an improvement over what pigs in It plans to process 125 million chickens a year after a new plant industrial facilities have now, but it still doesn’t offer them is completed.77 “Tyson China” expects to increase its annual much room in which to move (an area just slightly larger revenue to $500 million a year, which would make the Chinese than a 4 X 4 square), or access to the outdoors.85 operations the food corporation’s biggest global venture.78 The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private Large U.S. investment banks also see animal agriculsector arm of the World Bank, has also invested in the develture in China as offering potentially high returns. In 2008, opment and growth of factory farm operations in China. U.S. financial giant Goldman Sachs bought ten intensive In 2003, the IFC provided $61 million for the expansion of the

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Biofuels, Animal Feed, Food Prices, and the Climate The ethics of using corn, palm oil, and sugarcane to produce biofuels for use in industrialized countries has, rightly, been questioned—given the implications for global food prices, hunger, and the environment. Fuel crops compete with food crops for land and resources. They often require the clearing of additional grassland or forests that displace other species. Such clearing also not only releases carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, fueling global warming, but also reduces the carbon-capturing capacity of ecosystems.

A look at the data, however, shows that much more of

the global grain harvest is directed to animal feed than to production of biofuels. Between 2007 and 2008, the FAO estimates that 100 million tons of “cereals,” or 4 percent, were used for biofuels, of which 95 million tons is corn. By comparison, 756 million tons of cereals, or 35 percent, were used for animal feed (a 2 percent increase over 2006–2007 levels). In 2007, 12 percent of the world’s corn was used for ethanol, while 60 percent was used to produce animal feed.66

The largest portion of the global cereal harvest is still

consumed directly by people: just over one billion tons, or 47 percent, a year. But, the FAO reports, per capita consumption of rice and wheat has declined, due mainly its researchers say to increased consumption of animal foods, principally in China. 67 As more people in the world who can afford to adopt a Western-style diet high in meat and dairy products, competition over grain—to feed farmed animals or people—is likely to increase. n

Jilin Huazheng Agribusiness Development Co., a pork producer in Gongzhuling City, Jilin Province. In 2006, the IFC made available $2.76 million of the Beijing Deqingyuan Agriculture Technology Co. Ltd’s $12.6 million expansion of its egg production facility west of Beijing. Currently, the company’s 500,000 layer hens produce 200,000 eggs a day. The new investment will allow it to add another 800,000 birds in layer sheds to produce an additional half a million eggs each day.86 As intensive production systems expand, China’s animal feed industry, which already has a value of $40 billion, is expanding, too, by 15 percent a year. Feed sales in China are expected to rise to $50 billion in 2010. In rising consumption and production levels, Chinese and international companies see a market opportunity.87 In 2008, U.S.-based Novus International, a major feed supplier, announced the opening of a

8

new 23,000-square foot facility near Shanghai, with machinery made in the U.S. and China.88 And, similar to the pattern in the U.S., animal agriculture in China is becoming more vertically integrated, with large corporations increasingly owning not just factory farm facilities, but also slaughterhouses and feed companies. China’s largest feed manufacturer, New Hope Group, for instance, has invested $137 million in infrastructure in a facility in Chengdu in Hebei province, that will process 1 million “slaughter pigs” by 2015. Joint China–international ventures are also underway. In Hunan province, “feed-tomeat” integrator Hunan Tanrenshen plans to spend $342 million on expanding production to 10 million pigs a year in a partnership with U.S. pig breeder Whiteshire Hamroc. 89 A recent market analysis of China’s meat sector concluded that trends were toward: . . . larger-scale operations which increasingly rely on automation in production, packaging and transportation—a process which ultimately will create significant meat supply companies. Although still in its earliest stages, this trend will develop as growers become actively involved in supplying to the fastgrowing supermarket and hypermarket chains rapidly expanding outside China’s largest cities.90 Realization of such a scenario could, though, the researchers concluded, be curtailed by rising concerns within China about food safety in the market for meat.

Food Safety The rush to meet the growing demand for animal products in China, joined to a rapid expansion of supply, intense competition, often inadequate quality controls, and persistent outbreaks of disease among farmed animals, has led to a number of food safety scares. In April 2010, the government announced a new outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease among pigs and sheep in Gansu province, in the north of China. About 1,200 animals were slaughtered, and the outbreak was reported contained.102 Internationally, incidents in China of “blue ear,” SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), and recurring cases of avian influenza, have rattled food markets. A proposal for China to export processed chicken to the U.S. has met sharp resistance from U.S.-based food safety advocates, who have expressed concern about food-borne diseases like E. coli and salmonella, contamination, and unsanitary conditions inside Chinese facilities. “Say ‘no thanks’ to Chinese chicken imports” is the heading on an online petition on the issue

directed to the U.S. Congress.103 Discussions between the U.S. and Chinese governments continue. 104 Jia Youling, China’s chief veterinarian at the ministry of agriculture, indicated that as recently as June 2008 some livestock and fish farmers were still using banned growth-enhancing drugs, food coloring, and other chemicals, while feed additives with high concentrations of metal were polluting water and crops. In particular, he pointed to small-scale farms as lacking the means to manage waste and pollution; that they were unsanitary and didn’t adequately immunize animals from infections—such as blue ear among pigs. China, Jia suggested, was a “disaster area” for animal–human transmissible diseases. He added that 60 million people were at risk in 12 provinces from schistosomiasis caused by water polluted by snails. Between 2004 and 2005, bird flu caused some ¥95 billion ($US13.8 billion) in losses, and 20 human deaths. In 2005, 38 people died from Streptococcus suis (the bacterium that caused blue ear in pigs) in Sichuan province.105 Concern over the safety of China’s meat supply led Tyson to ship 11,364 kgs (25,000 lbs) of “lean protein” (beef, chicken, pork) to China for U.S. athletes to eat at their training center during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The use of growth-promoting drugs among livestock producers was highlighted when the caterer for the American team, Frank Puleo, found a chicken breast 14 inches long in a Chinese supermarket. “We could never have given it to athletes,” Puleo said. “They all would have tested positive [for steroids].”106 Food safety is not, according to Li’s research, a major concern among animal producers in China. A chicken slaughterhouse owner told Li that no one tested for drugs in chicken meat. If they did, he explained, and banned hormones or other drugs were found, all the meat would be rejected. Chickens are routinely given drug-laced feed until the end of their lives—so they survive the truck journey to slaughter. Because the internal market is large and increasing all the time in size and intensity of demand, Chinese farmers are not yet unduly worried about potential downsides in continuing to dose their animals. The meat from such chickens, however, would not be accepted by KFC or McDonald’s in China, nor would it be viewed favorably by export markets.107 A recent investigation into factory-farmed egg-

Recent Food Safety Incidents in China 2005: Streptococcus suis is found in pigs in Sichuan province and linked to the death of 38 people.91 September 2006: Approximately 300 people fall sick in Shanghai after eating pork containing the illegal feed additive clenbuterol.92 2007: Melamine in animal feed traced to wheat- and riceprotein concentrates in China is found to contaminate over 100 pigs in California; wheat gluten imported from China containing melamine found in U.S. commercial pet food is linked to the death of hundreds of companion animals; pet food byproducts containing melamine, and also traced to China, is fed to chickens being raised for meat in U.S.93 February 2008: Insecticide-tainted dumplings from China sicken over 175 people in Japan. This incident leads to a mass recall of Chinese products from Tianyang Food Processing in Hebei Province.94 October 2008: Four different brands of Chinese eggs were found to contain melamine; authorities speculate the origin was contaminated feed given to egg-laying hens.95 December 2008: Chinese Health Ministry publishes data indicating that 294,000 babies in China had been sickened by melamine poisoning from contaminated milk powder.96 January 2010: Food safety authorities shut down the Shanghai Panda company after discovering it was selling milk powder laced with melamine. Shanghai Panda is one of the 20 dairy companies shut down during the 2008 melamine scandal.97 February 2010: Ministry of Health announces an investigation of Lekang Dairy Co., which is suspected of using melamine-laced milk in its products.98 April 2010: The Chinese Ministry of Health releases 66 new national standards for dairy product safety, including a ban on any amount of melamine in food products.99

9

laying chickens by two Chinese scholars revealed other unsettling realities. Some of these, such as the crowding and stress on production, are similar to operations in industrialized countries. Using battery cage facilities to raise chickens, write Jiang Gaoming, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Botany, and Tang Aimin, chair of the China Scientific View of Development Research and Development Center, “ignores the birds’ real needs, and crams seven or eight of them into each square meter. Additives, antibiotics, and drugs are used in great quantities . . . not to mention hormones that are harmful to human health.” The farmers, they report, say they don’t plan to eat the chickens themselves, just to sell them to city-dwellers. Factory farm workers are also at risk of exposure to particulate matter, gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, and respiratory diseases.108 Jiang and Tang found that, despite the application of drugs, a significant number of the birds died—an average of a thousand a year in a facility housing 20,000 to 30,000 layer hens. Their research suggests that 80 percent of those birds are sold to small factories for “sausage” or used by roast chicken vendors on many of China’s city streets; others become feed for other farmed animals, specifically pigs. Some birds suspected of having avian flu also end up in the food chain, after farmers refuse government orders to cull them, often fearing they won’t receive the promised compensation. 109 The problem is “major,” write Jiang and Tang, and threatens the health of consumers. “We suffer the consequences of these unnatural farming methods.” Their solution? An end to intensive production. “Chickens must be free of their cages and given space to roam . . . and live their natural lives,” Jiang and Tang conclude. “Only then should China’s people feel safe to eat chicken.”110 Chinese consumers themselves are also expressing concerns about food quality and safety, including the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers and their residues in food,

10

as well as the presence of “veterinary” drugs and other feed additives used to increase farmed animals’ size and ensure fast growth. A household food survey conducted in Beijing in 2007 found that “far more households reported choosing food products according to quality and safety attributes than according to price.”111 The younger generation in China is more aware of the health and environmental problems related to food production. But, as Professor Li notes, they never experienced hunger; for most Chinese over forty, food quantity remains a priority.112 Animals confined in the cramped conditions prevalent on factory farms are more vulnerable to infections and, therefore, require more antibiotics and other veterinary drugs to reach slaughter weight. In the immediate aftermath of the first largescale occurrences of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza, confined systems were recommended by industry experts over backyard production as the best means of avoiding or containing livestock disease. But more recent analyses have come to a different conclusion: that the factory farm systems themselves—the crowded conditions and reliance on drugs—provide a fertile breeding ground for avian flu and other animal diseases. In 2007, the FAO warned against a wholesale adoption of factory farm methods, stating that: “Excessive concentration of animals in large scale industrial production units should be avoided and adequate investments should be made in heightened biosecurity and improved disease monitoring to safeguard public health.”113 Li’s research also found that in China, it is concentrated farming systems that have been hardest hit by H5N1, not backyard producers.114

The Price

of

Grains

In 2008, drought in Australia, snowstorms in China, the allocation of land for biofuels in the U.S., and a growing demand for meat and dairy products led to big increases in the prices of global grain and other foodstuffs. In 2007, grain prices were 42 percent higher than in 2006.115

Rising food prices have unnerved consumers around Rice, head of China operations for Tyson Foods, 2008 will the world and in many poor countries angry demonstrations, be the last year that China is self-sufficient in both corn and shortages of staple foods, and growing need for emergency protein. “When China becomes a net buyer of anything, it food relief ensued. In China in 2008, prices for fish, beef, causes the price to go up,” Rice told the Chicago Tribune. 116 chicken, eggs, and pork, all increased. Whether higher “Look at steel and oil. The big question is, what happens food prices will be a permawhen China starts to buy nent feature of China’s, and the corn?”121 In 2010–11, China global economy, isn’t yet clear. looks set to import 3.5 million But the underlying trends metric tons of corn, includsuggest the price of food, as ing from the U.S., more than well as food security, will be doubling current import levels, ongoing, worldwide concerns. despite having “more than Many analysts suggest that the enough” corn to meet demand, era of cheap food may well be according to Zeng Liying, deputy over. In future, those with low director of the State Administraincomes and limited ability to tion of Grain.122 produce their own food in sufficient quantities will be most at The Environment risk of hunger, malnutrition, and In industrialized nations, concern famine. about the climate and additional A growing challenge to environmental impacts of factory large-scale producers of farmed farms is rising, as is awareness of animals—and intensification the trade-offs involved in how of the livestock sector—is the resources are used and with availability and price of grain. what impacts. Intensification A farmer feeds his pigs grain-based feed, Jiangxi province Until now, China hasn’t importmeans, according to the FAO, ed significant quantities of corn. that “the livestock sector enters But that is likely to change as into more and direct competiChina’s livestock sector expands and intensifies. In factory tion for scarce land, water, and other natural resources.”123 farm operations, animals are confined in pens, cages, or Such is the case in China. stalls, without access to pasture, the remains of the harvest, “Domestic animal and poultry waste has become a or fresh air or sunlight. They reach slaughter weight (in the major source of environmental pollution,” according to case of a “broiler” chicken, after about 40 days, for a pig, Wu Weixiang, associate professor at Zhejiang University’s about six months) on commercially produced feed manufacCollege of Agriculture.124 Many of China’s large-scale animal tured from industrial corn and soy. facilities are located near waterways. Increasingly, links are Globally, 85 percent of soy produced goes to animal feed, being made between these facilities and pollution of ground 117 and only about 6 percent is consumed directly by humans. and surface water, as well as soil contamination.125 China is the world’s largest importer of soy, receiving a net 33 In 2010, China released the most stringent survey yet 118 million metric tons of it in 2007–08. In 2009, Chinese soy undertaken of water pollution, and found levels much higher imports rose to a net of 42.5 million tons, an annual increase than reported in previous research that had not counted 119 of about 13 percent. In 2010, soy imports are expected to many agricultural pollutants. The 2010 research calculated rise still further, to 46 million metric tons.120 agricultural run-off at 13.2 million tons. That’s nearly equal Brazil is China’s largest source of soybeans, followed to the previous total, which, excluding pesticides and fertilby the U.S. Controversially, much of Brazil’s soy is harvested izers, found 13.8 million tons of discharges polluting China’s from plots that are often illegally cleared in the Amazon rainwaterways.126 forest, where industrial soy is now a major driver of deforesIn China’s three most polluted freshwater lakes— tation and biodiversity loss and soil erosion, or in Brazil’s, the Dianchi in Yunnan province, Chaohu in Anhui province, and Cerrado, also a region with significant biodiversity. Taihu in Jiangsu province—much of the nutrient residue Corn imports could soon follow. According to James found in the water, including nitrogen and phosphorous,

11

Avian Flu Timeline 12

2006

February 16 province: H5N1 reported in p s; to date, 1 ou ry in ducks, and ge million chicltke ese have b.2 ns, een culled August: H 5N1 detected in pigs in Ch ina April: Chin a reports fir H5N1 in wild st outbreak strain of H5 life; cause may be a newof wild birds N1 that is more leth al to June: Two outbreaks in Xinjiang Auto nomous Regpoultry in ion August: H Autonomou5N1 reported in Tibet s Region October: More outbre in several pro aks in po and Hunan vinces, including Anhuultry i Novembe cases of humr: China reports first three (two of whic ans infected with H5N 1 are culled h are fatal); 20 mill ion birds January: T infection in he 10th case of H5N China confir 1 human med February: confirmed (eThe 12th human case is infections h ight fatalities); some no reportedave occurred in areas human wit outbreaks in poultry h March: Ch death from ina reports 11th human H5N1 virus June: Outb reaks in wild life and pou ltry

2005

2004

2003

1997

1996

H5N1 virus Guangdong found on geese farm in province Human infe first time, inctions reported for th six are fatal Hong Kong; of 18 ca e ses February : Two human confirmed in cases of had recently Hong Kong; both victH5N1 im traveled to Fujian provi s nce January: H in Guangxi 5N1 found on duck province farm

China. In his research, Li came across a village downstream comes from farmed animal wastes, according to Xu Cheng, from a duck farm in Chongqing, on the Yangtze River in the a professor at China Agricultural University. Xu’s research southwest of the country, where the river had run black for a indicates that China’s livestock produce 2.7 billion tons decade due to run-off from the farm. People complained for of manure every year, nearly three and a half times the years, but only in 2008 did the government force the owners industrial solid waste level. He estimates that China has to relocate their 40,000 ducks. The number of ducks is 20,000 large- and medium-sized livestock operations, only significant since, Li found, only 3 percent of which have facili“major animal farms” (those ties to treat animal wastes. 127 with 10,000 or more animals) Since most large facilities are subject to any kind of reguare located near cities, much lation. Facilities with fewer, of the manure the animals but as many as 8,000 to 9,000 produce is not applied to fields. animals, of which there could What isn’t used as fertilizer is be several in a single village, are often discharged directly into not regulated.130 waterways. Even when manure While strong and detailed is used on crops, the soil in Garbage floats near the docks in Shanghai. environmental regulations do regions with many large animal exist that would curb at least facilities is already saturated some of the water pollution caused by factory farms, with nutrients, leading to large amounts of agricultural enforcement is inadequate. The relative power of provinrun-off that makes its way into rivers, streams, lakes, and cial authorities means the central government’s regulaeven coastal waters. The South China Sea, for instance, now tions regularly go unheeded, and industrial development is contains a large “dead zone” virtually devoid of marine life; given priority over environmental considerations.131 Public run-off from pig production in the southeast province of concern, however, about water pollution is growing. In a Guangdong, where densities of 100 pigs or more per square survey conducted in the lead-up to the Beijing Olympics, kilometer are common, is a major factor. The animal wastes even though 86 percent of Chinese surveyed were content are degrading seawater, threatening mangroves and coral 128 with their country’s direction, 66 percent said water pollureefs, and causing “red tides,” or massive algae growth. tion was a problem.132 Since 2009, the government has banned new large China’s ability to keep expanding its food production pig-producing units along the Pearl River in Dongguan City capacity also may be slowed by competition for increasarea due to concerns about pollution and environmental ingly limited resources, such as land and water, from nondegradation.129 But such action to contain the environmenagricultural sectors, including urban development, heavy tal damage from livestock facilities is not yet the norm in

in

China 1996–2006

100

Avian Flu Timeline

in

2010

April: H5N market in X 1 found in live chicke n in Hong Kong jiang Autonomous Reg ion; d et ec ts H 5N and in a wild bird in Pingc1 in poultry hau June: A 22 -year-old pre dies in Hub ei province gnant woman 39 human ca from H5N1 ; of which hav ses in China to date (2 e been fatal) 6

February Autonomou: H5N1 outbreak in X in reports H5Ns Region; Hong Kong jiang local birds, as1 in wild, migratory, poultry on th well as in commer and cial e coast

2009

March: C live poultryhina reports H5N1 fo u d at a market in G uangdong pnro vince June: H5N 1 ag ai n fou markets in G uangdong npd in live poultry rovince Decembe r Jiangsu provi : H5N1 found in pou province sin nce, first outbreak in ltry in ce June 200 the 8 January: Tw in China, th o reported H5N1 e first human dea almost a year deaths in ths 101

March: Ou tbreaks in p oultry May: Chin a re H5N1 infect ports 25th human ion case of Septembe Guangdong r: Outbreaks in duck s in province January: H Xinjiang, first5N1 found in poultry September outbreak in province in Region, first2006; and in Tibet Auto since no outbreak sin ce March 20mous 07 February: C hi na confirms 30 case of H5N th hum been fatal) 1 virus (20 of which hav an e

2008

2007

January: C h H5N1 virus ina reports 22nd case have been fain humans (14 of whic of tal) h

industry, and manufacturing. In 1980, 13 percent of China’s Moreover, official figures state that 10 percent of water resources were used by industry and households. By China’s farmland is contaminated with pollution from 2000, this percentage had risen to one-third, leaving agriculchemical plants and steel factories, with 12 million tons ture with two-thirds and the arid north of China increasingly of grain affected each year. “Land pollution has directly 133 thirsty and prey to water shortfalls. led to declining food quality,” says Sun Tieheng, an ecoloChina has only one-third of the world’s per capita gist and member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.140 134 average of available arable land, and because of urban Despite a new national directive to hold companies expansion, the country has lost about 8 percent more accountable, weak enforcement of environmental regu135 such land since 2000. The 470,000 square miles (122 lations, especially in rural areas, authorities indicate, has million hectares/ha) remaining is just 7,000 square miles meant that “some environmental problems have become (1.8 million ha) above the minimum estimate of what’s the main factors endangering the health and property needed to ensure China’s food security. 136 In 2010, the security of farmers.”141 government estimates farmland in China will decline In northern China, overgrazing and overfarming have further, to 119 million ha, falling to 109 million ha in led to the loss of nearly 1 million ac of grassland each year to 2020, the result of a combination of factors, including desert.142 The resulting dust storms have hit Beijing, Korea, urbanization, industrialization, and lack of water. 137 Japan, and even crossed the Pacific Ocean and blanketed the The grain harvest, princiwest coast of North America.143 pally rice, in Guangdong provCurrently, a quarter of China is The rising prices of commodities and inputs, ince, now known as the “world’s desert, an area that is expandlabor shortages, and the higher cost for that factory,” has dropped by 25 ing by nearly 2,000 square miles labor, as well as restrictions on and resistance percent as industrialization has a year, north and west.144 to the development of land­­—all in tandem gathered pace and farmland has Global warming is also 138 with shrinking supplies of groundwater, given way to development. creating challenges. Every year, pollution, urbanization, and desertification— Between 1999 and 2003, the 50 million ha (125 million ac) present significant challenges to China. amount of farmland in Guangof farmland and 400 million dong declined from 48 to 30 people, one-third of China’s million mu (a Chinese land population, are affected by measurement in which 1 hectare is the equivalent of 15 mu erratic weather. In 2006, the warmest year in China since or 2.471 acres/ac). To meet its grain requirements—34 million 1951, floods, drought, and a typhoon took nearly 3,000 tons annually—Guangdong now imports 9 million tons a year: lives; damage was assessed at ¥212 billion ($27 billion). The 70 percent from other Chinese provinces and another 30 intensity of such “weather events” is expected to increase in percent from overseas.139 coming years.145

China 2007–2010

100

13

Looking

Land Elsewhere

At the same time, the Chinese government has requested leases for Chinese-run “mega farms” and cattle ranches in The rising prices of commodities and inputs, labor shortthe two valleys, and lifted its 400 percent tariffs on imports ages and the higher cost for that labor, as well as restricof Mozambican agricultural products, including rice. A memotions on and resistance to the development of land—all in randum of understanding on the land leases was reporttandem with shrinking supplies of groundwater, pollution, edly signed between the two governments in June 2007. It urbanization, and desertification—present significant chalincluded provisions for 3,000 Chinese citizens, possibly rising lenges to China, whose population previously ate plantto 10,000 in future years, to move to Mozambique to run the centered diets and whose system of collectivized agriculfarms, overseeing local laborers. However, according to the ture was focused on production of food grains rather than Africa Policy Forum, the specter of Mozambique becoming an livestock or horticulture. “agricultural colony” of China caused “such an uproar that the Since the 1959–61 famine, ensuring a sufficient food Mozambique government was forced to dismiss the whole supply has been a national priority. So, as a result of the story as false.” Nonetheless, rumors that it will be revived varied constraints on its capacity to be self-sufficient in abound in Mozambique. 151 food production, the Chinese In the meantime, other government is looking abroad activities are moving forward. to produce food for people and China has pledged $800 million feed for livestock not only to to modernize Mozambique’s global food markets but also to agricultural sector, with the Africa, Latin America, and other aim of raising rice production parts of Asia where agricultural by five times to 500,000 tons a land may be more readily avail146 year in the next five years, even able than it is in China. though only a few MozambiChinese companies are cans, mainly among the elite, already producing agricultural eat rice. With funds from agriproducts for Chinese consumpcultural exports to China, the tion in Congo, Cambodia, Laos, Mozambican government can and Indonesia. The Chinese buy Chinese-made goods, includgovernment has earmarked ing food and other commodities, $5 billion to grow food and on the world market. China is cash crops in Liberia and other supporting the establishment of African countries over the next A dried up water reservoir near Hongshiyun village in an advanced crop research instihalf-century, including highYunnan province. tute in Mozambique (set to open yield, disease-resistant rice and 147 in 2010)152 and more than 100 cassava. Chinese agricultural Chinese agriculture specialists are currently in the country.153 experts, and in some cases, Chinese farmers, are advising on, and growing and harvesting, the crops.148 Public Health It is rumored that China has acquired the right to farm In recent decades, the standard diet for millions of Chinese 250,000 ac of corn in southern Zimbabwe, accounting, some has changed radically. In the decade between 1996 and analysts say, for China’s reluctance to criticize President Robert 2006, the percentage of energy in the average Chinese Mugabe, even though he and his associates have been judged diet derived from fat increased by 10 percent. Diet-relatresponsible for serious rights violations, torture, and extraed chronic diseases now kill more Chinese than any other judicial killings before and after Zimbabwe’s disputed 2008 cause. Data from China’s Ministry of Health show that in the elections.149 In Mozambique, China is reported to be seeking 1930s, 97 percent of the calories the average person in China large land leases in the Zambezi and Limpopo valleys. China’s consumed came from grains and vegetables, compared to state-owned Exibank extended $2 billion in “soft loans” (below 63 percent in 2002.154 market interest rates) to the government of Mozambique to Many in China’s middle-class, defined in one measure build the Mpanda Nkua dam on the Zambezi River in Tete provas households earning $10,000 a year,155 eat meat every day, ince, leaving open the possibility of financing more dams that 150 sometimes at every meal. Guo Meng, a 20-year-old univerwould create contracts for Chinese companies to do the work.

14

for

sity student in Beijing, is one of them. Interviewed by the disease. . . . People who ate the most plant-based foods Chicago Tribune at a McDonald’s in the city’s Huajiadi neighwere the healthiest and tended to avoid chronic disease.”160 borhood, not long ago an area where peppers were grown, A Harvard University School of Public Health study, Guo said: “I eat sausage in the morning, a meat dish and a commissioned by the World Bank, determined that signifivegetable dish for lunch, and the same for dinner. If there’s cant consumption of red meats is likely to increase the risk no meat, I won’t feel full, but if there’s no vegetable, no of coronary disease and some cancers and that, in many 156 problem.” settings, replacing some staple carbohydrates in diets with China is increasingly characterized by stark inequalities soy products, vegetable oils, and nuts may offer more health in terms of food. The FAO reports that 12 percent of China’s benefits than animal products.161 In 2004, the World Health population is undernourished.157 But even as economic growth Organization’s Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity, and makes it possible for many more Chinese to eat a diet much Health emphasized the need for policy measures that lead higher in animal protein than their parents or grandparents to greater availability and accessibility of a range of low-fat, could, and even as China’s government seeks to make animal high-fiber foods, including vegetables, fruits, whole grains, products more widely available, and nuts.162 Both the World a direct result appears to be Health Organization (WHO) and declines in some fundamental the FAO have acknowledged a link indicators of public health. between consumption of animal By 2006, about 60 million fats and obesity, cardiovascular Chinese were obese, accorddisease, and certain cancers.163 ing to the government-affiliThe results of another study ated State Food and Nutrition in China, this one conducted in Consultative Commission. This 2008 by Barry Popkin, professor was mainly due to an increase of nutrition at the University of in consumption of fat and junk North Carolina in the U.S., found food and a decrease in the that one in four adults in China amount of grains and vegetais overweight and 80 percent of bles, which had, the commitChinese are dying due to nontee said, resulted in greater communicable diseases such incidences of diabetes, as well as heart disease and cancer. as high blood pressure. High The study noted that, contrary blood pressure now affects 160 to conventional wisdom that million Chinese, nearly double obesity in China is a scourge of Meat stall in market, Dongguan City, Guangdong province 158 the number in 1991, and the more affluent, low-income the country is in the midst of a people in rural areas were more diabetes epidemic. More people in China now have diabelikely to be overweight than wealthier city-dwellers. This tes—90 million or nearly one in ten adults—than in any pattern, while new in China, mirrors what has occurred other country, and 150 million more Chinese show early in industrialized countries where those in higher income symptoms of developing it.159 brackets tend to have better, more balanced diets and are For many years, the traditional Chinese diet has been less likely to be overweight or obese than those with lower held up in other parts of the world as health- and longevityincomes.164 promoting. For example, in a two-decades-long research In Popkin’s analysis, the main factors contributing to the project conducted by U.S.-based Cornell University, U.K.increase in Chinese obesity were a move away from a tradibased Oxford University, and the Chinese Academy of tional, more balanced diet to one high in oil and meat, along Preventive Medicine, researchers studied the eating habits with lifestyle changes, such as driving cars instead of riding of rural Chinese. They documented more than 8,000 statistibicycles, more sedentary work, mechanized agriculture, and cally significant associations between various dietary factors watching television. The study concluded that obesity rates in and disease—not least, according to the study’s director, China could double by 2028. To reverse this trajectory Popkin Cornell professor T. Colin Campbell, the fact that “people recommended that the government subsidize soy products, who ate the most animal-based foods got the most chronic vegetables, and fruits, while taxing fats and sugars.165 Also

15

who heads the band Giant Beanstalk, founded the pro-vegeworrying for China’s future public health is the fact that childtarian outreach group, “Don’t Eat Friends.” He and the band hood obesity is on the rise. Nearly one-fifth of Chinese chilmembers regularly stage concerts and other events to raise dren under seven are overweight, according to a study by the awareness of veganism and animal rights in China.170 Chinese National Task Force on Childhood Obesity.166 In a recent article advocating for vegetarianism on both Another public health concern gaining increased attenethical and ecological grounds, Jiang Jingsong, a Ph.D. affilition by U.S. researchers and health professionals is the wideated with Tsinghua University’s Institute of Science, Technolspread use of antibiotics by the industrial livestock industry. ogy, and Society, argued that, to many Chinese, not eating This has been linked to the precipitous rise in human antimeat “for the sake of the environment and animal welfare” biotic resistance; antibiotic residues remain in the animal raises the specter of the “enforced vegetarianism of poverty” products people eat. Antibiotic use can also increase the risk and the “inadequate, monotoof animal-to-human disease. nous, and unbalanced diet that Half of all antibiotics used each poverty brings.”171 year in the U.S. are used by the But, Jiang notes, Beijing animal agriculture industry.167 University’s vegetarian society The WHO has expressed was founded in 2000 and several alarm at the indiscriminate use Chinese universities now have of antibiotics in farmed animals similar groups. Vegetarianism in Asia and its effects on treatin China has, “a bright future,” ing human disease. According to Jiang writes, and as an “up-andthe WHO, more than 90 percent coming youth movement” in of some bacteria in Asia can no China it may counter the trends longer be treated effectively of ever-higher meat consumpwith “first-line” antibiotics like Breeding sow in medium-sized farm, eastern China tion and greater concentration penicillin.168 Some experts see of the livestock industry.172 a link between the overuse of By any measure—such as the ability of animals to antibiotics in livestock and human deaths in China in 2005 exhibit natural behaviors, live within a suitable habitat, expefrom the Streptococcus suis bacterium that caused “blue rience freedom or the companionship of the same species, ear” in China’s pigs. This bacterium, which rarely jump the have enough space to turn around, lie down, or truly spread species barrier and are generally treatable when they do, all of their limbs—the welfare of farmed animals in intenmay have become antibiotic-resistant.169 sive confinement systems is poor. China’s factory farms are no exception. And while the rights and welfare of farmed Animal Welfare animals are not high on the government’s, or agribusiness’, Animal welfare, as understood in the West, is a relatively agenda in China, it is not wholly absent, either, according to new concept in China, which has a long tradition of eating Professor Gu Xianhong, given emerging market realities. a wide range of animals. Western ideas concerning the “Recently, more and more consumers and policy“rights” of animals are often viewed with suspicion. Nevermakers [have expressed] concern about how animal prodtheless, among the younger generation of Chinese, there ucts are produced on farms,” Gu says. “They demand that is an increased interest in companion animals and a rising the animals should be produced safely and humanely by population of domestic dogs. More Chinese under 40 are observing sustainable development, environmental protecbecoming aware of the health and environmental probtion, food safety and animal welfare standards.”173 Among lems associated with intensive animal agriculture; a growing Chinese farmed animal researchers, an emerging field is number of universities have student animal welfare groups examining how improved welfare in production facilities, and some also have vegetarian associations. along with better conditions for transport and at slaughterIssues of animal rights are now covered occasionalhouses, could enhance meat quality, reduce death rates, ly in the Chinese media and some in China are seeking to and, as a result, help farmers increase their income. revive Chinese Buddhist traditions of vegetarianism, and The Chinese government has begun a feasibility study to link consumption of meat and dairy products with some that allows pigs being raised for pork to play with toys. Tan of China’s most pressing ecological problems, particularly Lei of the Pig Raising Research Center, which is affiliated with water pollution. Chinese rock singer/songwriter Xie Zheng,

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the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told China Daily: “A piglet March 2008 conference “and also by making more animal is sometimes as sensitive as a baby. Ten days after birth, they excretion [available] to organic fertilizer to reduce the polluare able to express such feelings as agitation, depression, tion, I think the impact posed by this system is solvable and and distress by biting the pigsty bars or their own tails.” In not severe.”178 confined conditions, the pigs sometimes fight, causing skin Some conference participants from the U.S. and Europe wounds that can cause diseases. Toys, Tan says, can help. also had the opportunity to speak to student animal and “Our experiment has shown that pigs without toys are slugvegetarian groups at several Beijing-area colleges and gish and lazy. But those that play with toys are much happier universities. They reported a strong, positive reception and energetic. They sometimes chase me and even rub their among the students to the message of improved farmed noses against my legs to show their intimacy.”174 animal welfare.179 Some skepticism within the Chinese Another reason for some attention being paid to the government about the topic of the conference was evident; welfare of animals in food production is standards set by the department of agriculture, which was to have hosted importing countries, particularly those in the EU. Because the conference initially, eventually declined to do so. Such most of the pork sold in China’s domestic market doesn’t meet inter-disciplinary dialogues in future may address a seemingthe animal welfare standards in some European countries, a ly more controversial topic: China’s adoption of the factory substantial market opportunity is lost, according to Gu.175 farm model itself, not just improving the welfare of animals As part of an attempt to engage the issue of farmed already confined in intensive systems. animal welfare in China, U.S. and European-based orgaA follow-up conference, “The Importance of Animal nizations Compassion in World Farming (CIWF), the Royal Welfare Science for the Future,” organized by the same Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA), Chinese and international partners, was held at Beijing Agrithe World Society for the Protection of Animals (WSPA), cultural College in October 2009.180 and Humane Society International (HSI) collaborated on a China is also in the midst of debating a draft national law two-day conference in Beijing in March 2008 entitled, “The on animal welfare that would outlaw and punish (through Importance of Animal Welfare to Sustainable Agriculture,” fines and detention) some of the most egregious examples which was hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciencof abuse. It would ban consumption of cats and dogs, and es’ Rural Development Institute. also include provisions on the About 100 academics, scienbreeding, transport, housing, By any measure--such as the ability of tists, industry representatives, and slaughtering of farmed animals to exhibit natural behaviors, and members of the European animals. Some of these could live within a suitable habitat, experience Commission and the World lead to improvements in the freedom or the companionship of the Organization for Animal Health welfare of what are referred to as same species, have enough space to turn (OIE) shared experiences and “economic animals,” but would around, lie down, or truly spread their perspectives on improving farm not inhibit the potential for devellimbs--the welfare of farmed animals in animal welfare in Europe and the opment of industrial livestock intensive confinement systems is poor. U.S., and related research within facilities. The law may well be China’s factory farms are no exception. China.176 put before national authorities in Although participants interviewed after the conference agreed it had been a good gathering, they also indicated that attention to the issue of farmed animal welfare in China is in its very early stages. Most indicators point to China following the path laid down by the U.S.: quickly developing an intensive, industrial system of animal agriculture. Some within the government and academic institutions who recognize the problems inherent in the model believe that the challenges of factory farming in China might be finessed or overcome.177 “If we can manage [the] intensive confinement system well, based on [the] normal physiological function and ethological demand of animals,” says Gu, who spoke at the

China before the end of 2010.181

Conclusion & Recommendations Development in China is taking place at a pace without precedent in human history. It is experiencing phenomena in a span of years that, in the West, only became evident after decades. For instance, water pollution from industrial animal facilities did not attract significant notice in the U.S. and Europe until relatively recently. In China, which has a far smaller proportion of factory farms than industrialized countries, this issue is already a subject of academic research and media discussion. Similarly, the public health consequences of the Western diet, such as obesity, diabetes, and heart disease,

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Breeding roosters raised in intensive conditions on a Chinese farm

have only in the last decade or so become part of the policy fossil fuels required to run factory farms, transport the agenda. In China, a mere two generations after the famine, animals, and produce and ship the grains they are fed, obesity is at near epidemic proportions. divert vast resources from producing food for people, In her memoir of living and cooking in China, Fuschia and are factors in the rapid rise of food prices around the Dunlop writes of what her Chinese friends describe as a world. transition from “eating to fill your belly” (chi bao) to “eating The facts and challenges outlined above, in both their 182 plenty of rich food” (chi hao) to “eating skillfully” (chi qiao). breadth and specificity, represent choices that must be made As it rapidly industrializes, globalizes, and seeks to modernize at international, national, regional, and personal levels. The its system of food production, China will need to find skillful following actions are recommended: means to avoid the pitfalls industrialized countries encountered, or created, as they took this path a half-century ago. • China’s government should undertake a multi-sectoral In the U.S. and Europe, governments and citizens are analysis of the many facets and impacts of industrial beginning seriously to re-examine industrial animal agriculanimal agriculture for China, now and in the future, ture, as its immense costs—to from climate change to arable the global climate, the enviland, from water pollution to In the U.S. and Europe, governments and ronment, public health, small chronic disease, from the use of citizens are beginning seriously to refarmers, food security, and grain to the welfare of farmed examine industrial animal agriculture, as farmed animals—become more animals. On this basis, the its immense costs—to the global climate, difficult to ignore. Intensive government, with participation the environment, public health, small systems are touted by agribusifrom policy-makers, academfarmers, food security, and farmed ness as ensuring food safety, ics, civil society, and advocates, animals—become more difficult to ignore. but numerous animal-borne should develop a Chinese soludiseases have hit factory farms, including in China. They are also pointed to as a means of reducing the substantial contribution of the livestock sector to global warming; but, in fact, the farmed animals in these systems are responsible for a greater share of emissions than non-industrialized farmed animals. Another rationale for intensification is food security. However, the water and

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tion to a Chinese problem: How to ensure food security for the population without compromising social, economic, and environmental stability. The model provided by the West has proved itself outdated and unsuitable to a world with growing populations, shrinking resources, greater concern for equity, and a climate under severe stress.

Disinfecting ducks at a poultry farm in Shanghai’s Nanhui district, during an H5N1 outbreak

• The government ought to redefine its conception of short- and long-term food security so it doesn’t give priority to a meat-centered diet. When it is consumed, meat in China ought to be, as was until recently, a condiment and not the mainstay of a meal. This doesn’t mean consigning a majority of Chinese citizens to what researcher Jiang Jingsong refers to as the “enforced vegetarianism of poverty,”183 but rather orienting the agricultural economy toward supplying varied, nutritious, safe, plant-centered foods to all Chinese, regardless of social status, income, or where they live. (Such a recommendation is also highly relevant for industrialized countries.)

tion, and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—should be paid for, in full, by the industry and/or specific facilities that cause them. This might entail setting prices for ecological services and GHGs at market rates or mandating mitigation technologies for all facilities already in operation or planned.

• Political openness, especially in policy-making, ought to be encouraged so that voices questioning intensive animal farming and promoting sustainability and a healthy lifestyle can be heard. Increased sharing of information about and experiences of industrial animal agriculture should take place among policy-makers, • Government subsidies that academics, and civil society The world is being confronted by the limits now support the expangroups in China and those of ameliorative technology to correct syssion of industrial-scale livein other countries with reletems that functionally cannot operate within stock operations, whether vant expertise or perspecthe context imposed by climate change, fiowned or controlled by tives, both developing and nite ecosystems and resources, and the apChinese or foreign compadeveloped. The process and proach of peak oil. Factory farming is one nies, should be ended. outcomes ought to be shared such system that requires a radical rethinking. Monetary and other fiscal with Chinese citizens, through or policy incentives ought information and awarenessto be directed to producraising campaigns, as well as ers of vegetables, fruits, legumes, and grains for direct outreach to national and regional media. human consumption. • A forum or other means for ongoing exchange ought to • The “externalities” on which animal agriculture is be established between Chinese government officials dependent—such as riverine and marine pollution, and international environmental, food security, and contamination of soil and groundwater, land degradaanimal welfare NGOs (non-governmental organizations)

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that call for phasing out or avoiding industrialized livestock production. • The growing environmental movement in China ought to include the issue of intensive animal agriculture within its analysis, awareness-raising, and advocacy activities, and collaborate with civil society groups working on related issues within China. In addition, NGOs working in both the North and South on environment, climate change, food security or sovereignty, food safety, rural livelihoods, and animal welfare should find means (including via the Internet) to exchange experiences, insights, and information with Chinese colleagues. As never before, the world is being confronted by the limits of ameliorative technology to correct systems that functionally cannot operate within the context imposed by climate change, finite ecosystems and resources, and the approach of peak oil. Factory farming is one of a cluster of such systems that require a radical rethinking beyond and above simply tinkering with the component parts.

The risk, as more and more international bodies and government institutions are recognizing, is entire systemic collapse. China doesn’t have to be either a victim of these changes or to make them worse. The inevitability of China’s development provides a set of challenges and opportunities for innovation on a scale and at a speed that could result in the forging of a new and resilient vision of sustainability. The final report of a commission established to study U.S. industrial animal agriculture by the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health states: There is reason to wonder . . . whether these dramatic gains [in meat production], and particularly those of the last 50 years, can be sustained for the next 50 years as the world’s human population doubles, climate change shifts rainfall patterns and intensifies drought cycles, fossil fuels become more expensive, and the developing nations of the world rapidly improve their standards of living.184 n

Village pig sale, Jiangxi province

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Lohmar, Bryan and Fred Gale. “Who Will China Feed?” Amber Waves, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service, June 2008. Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, University of Houston, Texas, May 2008. EarthTrends Searchable Database, World Resources Institute, earthtrends.wri.org. Watts, Jonathan. “More Wealth, More Meat: How China’s Rise Spells Trouble,” Guardian, May 30, 2008. Data on livestock populations; production and consumption of meat and dairy products, current and projected; and global food prices are all from the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), including its statistical database, FAOSTAT, unless indicated otherwise. Global population of farmed animals, and projections to 2050, based on analysis of FAO data by the World Society for the Protection of Animals. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Shen, Samuel. “Kentucky Fried Chicken Banks on China,” International Herald Tribune, May 5, 2008. Food Outlook. Rome: UN FAO, 2007. “China to Become Net Importer of Beef,” March 8, 2010. http://www. agrimoney.com/news/china-tobecome-net-importer-of-beef--1441. html. Lohmar, Bryan and Fred Gale. “Who Will China Feed?” op. cit. Merrett, Neil. “Yili Spends to Meet Chinese Dairy Challenges,” dairyreporter.com, May 1, 2007. Food Outlook. Rome: UN FAO, 2008. Merrett, Neil. “Yili Spends to Meet Chinese Dairy Challenges.” op. cit. Bradsher, Keith. “Rise in China’s Pork Prices Signals End to Cheap Output,” New York Times, June 1, 2007. Cha, Ariana Eunjung. “Pig Disease in China Worries the World,” Washington Post, September 16, 2007. “China’s Snow Storms Cause $7.5 Billion Damage,” Russian News and Information Agency, February 2, 2008. Bradsher, Keith. “Rise in China’s Pork

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24 25 26

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28 29 30

31 32 33 34 35 36 37

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Prices Signals End to Cheap Output,” New York Times, June 1, 2007. ibid. ibid. Food Outlook, Rome, 2008. op. cit. “China Contributing Two-thirds to Increase in CO2 Emissions,” Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency press release, June 13, 2008. UN Development Programme, Human Development Report, 2007. Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options. Rome: UN FAO, 2006. ibid. Matthews, Elaine. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2000. National Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Source Category, Emission Databases for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), 3.2FT2000, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2000. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases,” June 2006. ibid. Livestock’s Long Shadow. op. cit. Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization (CHINAGRO). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2006. Livestock’s Long Shadow. op. cit. ibid. ibid. ibid. National Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Source Category. op. cit. Livestock’s Long Shadow. op. cit. Ellis, Linden J. and Jennifer L. Turner. “Environmental and Food Safety Concerns of China’s Aquaculture and Animal Husbandry,” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2007, and Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization (CHINAGRO). op. cit. Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization (CHINAGRO). op. cit. Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May 2008.

40 Wikipedia, and Becker, Jasper. “Hungry Ghosts: Mao’s Secret Famine,” New York: Free Press, 1998. 41 Lohmar, Bryan and Fred Gale. “Who Will China Feed?” op. cit. 42 Naylor, Rosamund, Professor, Stanford University, cited in Bittman, Mark. “Rethinking the Meat Guzzler,” New York Times, January 27, 2008. 43 EarthTrends Searchable Database, World Resources Institute. earthtrends.wri.org. 44 ibid. 45 Iwata, Edward. “Pilgrim’s Pride Shuts 7 Sites, Blames Cost of Chicken Feed,” USA Today, March 12, 2008. 46 Bradsher, Keith. “Rise in China’s Pork.” op. cit. 47 “Low Pork Prices Hurt Breeders; Government Pledges to Stabilize Market,” Chi-Agri.com, April 2, 2010. http://www.guojixum u . c o m / e n / n e w s / n e w s h o w. aspx?classid=0&id=7254. 48 Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization (CHINAGRO). op. cit. 49 ibid. 50 Personal communication, Professor Gu Xianhong, Institute of Animal Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, May 2008. 51 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May and August 2008. 52 ibid. 53 Livestock’s Long Shadow. op. cit. 54 Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization (CHINAGRO). op. cit. 55 ibid. 56 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May and August 2008. 57 Lavelle, Marianne and Kent Garber. “8 Ways to Fix the Global Food Crisis,” U.S. News and World Report, May 9, 2008. 58 Lohmar, Bryan and Fred Gale. “Who Will China Feed?” op. cit. 59 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May 2008. 60 “China Plans to Allocate 2.8 Billion Yuan from Its Central Budget to Support Live Pig Production,” Xinhua, July 11, 2008.

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61 “China Enhances Poultry Subsidies,” worldpoultry.net, April 18, 2008. 62 “China Plans to Allocate 2.8 Billion Yuan.” op. cit. 63 Cruey, Greg. “The Economic Impact of the Sichuan Earthquake,” China Venture News, July 8, 2008. 64 “Recent Quake Sends Shockwaves through China’s Agricultural Sector— UN,” UN News Centre press release, June 30, 2008. 65 Keeratipipatpong, Walailak. “CP Adjusts its China Plans after Quake,” Bangkok Post, July 2, 2008. 66 Food Outlook, Rome, 2008. op. cit. 67 ibid. 68 McDonald’s-China, mcdonalds.com. cn, and Shen, Samuel. “Kentucky Fried Chicken Banks on China.” op. cit. 69 National Geographic, “China’s Journey,” May 2008. 70 Lee, Melanie, “McDonald’s sees 2,000 stores in China by 2013,” Reuters, March 20, 2010. 71 Barboza, David, “Western Olympic Ads Cheerlead for China,” New York Times, July 20, 2008. 72 “3,000 KFC stores in China,” ShanghaiDaily.com, June 2, 2010. 73 Yum! China. http://www.yum.com/ company/china.asp. 74 Shen, Samuel. “Kentucky Fried Chicken Banks on China.” op. cit. 75 ibid. 76 “Tyson Shareholders Elect Ten Directors at Annual Meeting; Company Also Announces Plans to Expand Chicken Production in China,” Tyson Foods press release, February 1, 2008. 77 Hornby, Lucy. “Tyson to Buy 60 pct of Chinese Poultry Processor,” Reuters, July 16, 2008. 78 Liu, Coco. “Tyson Foods: Growing with China,” WATTAgNet.com, November 11, 2009. 79 MacDonald, Mia. “Investment Bankers with Wings: Making a Killing,” Huffington Post, May 4, 2010. 80 Hughes, Mark and Yang Ning. “Farmers Slowly Cultivate a New Image,” China Daily, May 31, 2010. 81 Chen, Shu-Ching Jean. “China Pork Producer Invests in Smithfield Foods,” Forbes.com, July 1, 2008. 82 Food & Water Watch. “The Trouble with Smithfield: A Corporate Profile,” 2008.

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83 Chen, Shu-Ching Jean. “China Pork Producer Invests in Smithfield Foods.” op. cit. 84 ibid. 85 ibid. 86 International Finance Corporation, “Environmental Review Summary, Jilin Zhengye Agriculture Development PRC,” 2003, and “Environmental Review Summary” and “Summary of Project Information,” both for Deqingyuan Egg, 2005. ifc.org. 87 Weaver, Lori. “China Seeks Center Stage in Global Feed Industry.” op. cit. 88 St. Louis Business Journal, “Novus International Opens Animal Feed Plant in China,” February 25, 2008, and Weaver, Lori. “China Seeks Center Stage in Global Feed Industry.” op. cit. 89 Weaver, Lori, “China Seeks Center Stage in Global Feed Industry.” op. cit. 90 Access Asia Ltd. “Fresh & Processed Meat in China 2008—a Market Analysis,” June 2008. 91 Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response, World Health Organization, “Outbreak Associated with Streptococcus suis in Pigs in China,” 2005 92 “China Tainted Pork Makes 70 Sick,” BBC News Online, February 23, 2009. 93 Barboza, David and Alexei Barrionuevo. “Filler in Animal Feed Is Open Secret in China,” New York Times, April 30, 2007. 94 Fackler, Martin. “Insecticide-Tainted Dumplings from China Sicken 175 in Japan,” New York Times, February 2, 2008. 95 Associated Press. “China’s Animal Feed Tainted with Melamine,” October 31, 2008. 96 Branigan, Tania. “Chinese Figures Show Fivefold Rise in Babies Sick from Contaminated Milk,” Guardian, December 2, 2008. 97 Branigan, Tania. “New Toxic Milk Case in China Kept Secret for a Year, Reports Say,” Guardian, January 6, 2010. 98 “Health Ministry Investigates Dairy in Shaanxi Suspected of Using Melamine,” Ch-Agri.com, February 4, 2010, http:// w w w. guojixumu.com/en/news/ newshow.aspx?classid=0&id=6594. 99 Zhang, Jiawei. “New Rules Ban Melamine in Dairy Products,” China Daily, April 23, 2010. 100 Information, unless otherwise indi-

cated, is drawn from the following: World Health Organization, “H5N1 Avian Influenza: Timeline of Major Events,” March 16, 2010; Global Alert and Response, World Health Organization, “Avian Influenza,” http:// www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/; and World Organization for Animal Health, Avian Influenza, Facts & Figures: H5N1 Timeline, 2008, 101 Associated Press. “China Reports Second Bird Flu Related Death,” January 18, 2009. 102 “Foot-and-Mouth Disease Found in Gansu Livestock, Xinhua Reports,” ChiAgri.com, April 15, 2010. http://www. guojixumu.com/en/news/newshow. aspx?classid=0&id=7398. 103 Food & Water Watch. www.foodandwaterwatch.org. 104 “Why Is the USDA Begging China for More Imported Food?” Food and Water Watch press release, February 25, 2010. www.foodandwaterwatch. org. 105 Bi, William. “China’s Illicit Farm Practices Threat to Health, Top Vet Says,” Bloomberg.com, June 27, 2008. 106 Shpigel, Ben. “Wary U.S. Olympians Will Bring Food to China,” New York Times, February 9, 2008. 107 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May 2008. 108 Jiang Gaoming and Tang Aimin. “The Truth About Dead Chickens,” China Dialogue, June 14, 2007. 109 ibid. 110 ibid. 111 Lohmar, Bryan and Fred Gale. “Who Will China Feed?” op. cit. 112 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May 2008. 113 “Dramatic Changes in Global Meat Production Could Increase Risk of Diseases,” UN op. cit. press release, September 17, 2007. 114 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, August 2008. 115 Corcoran, Katherine. “Food Prices are Rising Worldwide,” Associated Press, March 30, 2008. 116 Bradsher, Keith. “Rise in China’s Pork.” op. cit. 117 Soya Tech. soyatech.com. 118 Barrionuevo, Alexei. “To Fortify China, Soybean Harvest Grows in Brazil,” New York Times, April 6, 2007.

119 “China Jan–April Soybean Imports Up 9.9% at 15.23 Mln Tons; Price Up 13.3%,” Chi-Agri.com, May 10, 2010. http://www.guojixu m u . c o m / e n / n e w s / n e w s h o w. aspx?classid=0&id=7704. 120 “China’s Soy Imports May Be More Than 46 Million Tons,” Bloomberg. com, May 25, 2010. 121 Osnos, Evan and Laurie Goering. “World’s Giants to Alter Food Equation,” Chicago Tribune, May 11, 2008. 122 “China to Curb Corn Price Gains as Record Levels Near (Update 3),” Bloomberg Businessweek, June 8, 2010. 123 Livestock’s Long Shadow. op. cit. 124 Guan, Xiaofeng. “Animal Waste a Heavy Burden for Environment,” China Daily, March 3, 2007. 125 ibid. 126 Ansfield, Jonathan and Keith Bradsher, “China Report Shows More Pollution in Waterways,” New York Times, February 9, 2010. 127 Guan, Xiaofeng. “Animal Waste a Heavy Burden for Environment.” op. cit. 128 UN FAO. “Pollution from Industrialized Livestock Production,” Livestock Policy Brief 02, 2006. 129 “Plan Puts End to Pigs in Delta,” China Daily, June 24, 2008. 130 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May 2008. 131 Personal communication, Professor Peter Li, May 2008; Wu, Jiao. “Government Targets Land Pollution to Ensure Food Security,” China Daily, June 20, 2008; and Victor, David G. “Asia’s Achilles Heel,” Newsweek, February 28, 2008. 132 Knowlton, Brian. “Economy Helps Make Chinese the Leaders in Optimism, 24-Nation Survey Finds,” New York Times, July 23, 2008, and Ministry of Environmental Protection, People’s Republic of China, Report on the State of the Environment in China, 2000. 133 Lohmar, Bryan and Fred Gale. “Who Will China Feed?” op. cit. 134 Spencer, Richard. “China Looks Abroad to Grow Its Own Food,” Daily Telegraph, May 10, 2008. 135 Chang, Jack. “Global Quandary: How to Feed a Growing Planet,” McClatchy Newspapers, June 19, 2008.

136 ibid. and Ministry of Environmental Protection, People’s Republic of China, Report on the State of the Environment in China, 2000. 137 “China to Curb Corn Price Gains as Record Levels Near (Update3),” Bloomberg Businessweek, June 8, 2010. 138 “Food Crisis—A Wake up Call to Guangdong,” China Digital Times, May 10, 2008. 139 ibid. 140 Wu, Jiao. “Government Targets Land Pollution.” op. cit. 141 ibid. 142 National Geographic. “China’s Journey,” May 2008. 143 Alleyn, Patrick. “The Chinese Dust Bowl,” The Walrus, October 2007. 144 Economy, Elizabeth. “China vs. Earth,” The Nation, May 7, 2007. 145 “China’s 2006 Weather—Warm and Disastrous,” Reuters, December 31, 2006. 146 Paskal, C. “Nationalistic Capitalism and the Food Crisis,” China Dialogue, June 3, 2008. 147 Johnny, T. Michael. “China Earmarks U.S.$5 Billion for Food Production on Continent,” The News (Monrovia), April 23, 2008. 148 Spencer, Richard. “China Looks Abroad to Grow Its Own Food.” op. cit. 149 Paskal, C. “Nationalistic Capitalism and the Food Crisis.” op. cit. 150 Hora, Loro, “The Zambezi Valley: China’s First Agricultural Colony?” Africa Policy Forum, June 9, 2008. 151 ibid. 152 Makoni, Munyaradzi. “China’s Farming Ambitions in Mozambique Take Shape,” SciDevNet, November 11, 2009, www.scidev.net. 153 Hora, Loro, “The Zambezi Valley.” op. cit. 154 “Fighting Hunger—and Obesity,” Spotlight, UN FAO, Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department, 2006. 155 National Geographic. “China’s Journey,” May 2008. 156 Osnos, Evan and Laurie Goering. “World’s Giants to Alter Food Equation.” op. cit. 157 UN FAO. Country Profiles: China, Statistical Yearbook, 2005. 158 “China: Affluence Brings Obesity,”

Associated Press, printed in New York Times, November 7, 2006. 159 “China Faces ‘Diabetes Epidemic’, Research Suggests,” BBC News Online, March 25, 2010. 160 The China Study, www.thechinastudy. com. 161 Hu, F. B. and W. C. Willett. The Relationship between Consumption of Animal Products (Beef, Pork, Poultry, Eggs, Fish and Dairy Products) and Risk of Chronic Diseases: A Critical Review, report for the World Bank, Harvard School of Public Health, 1998. 162 World Health Organization, Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity, and Health, 2004. 163 World Health Organization and UN FAO, Diet, Nutrition, and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases: Report of a Joint WHO/FAO Expert Consultation, 2003. 164 Popkin, Barry M. “Will China’s Nutrition Transition Overwhelm Its Health Care System and Slow Economic Growth?” Health Affairs, 27, No. 4, 2008; and “One in Four Chinese ‘Overweight’,” BBC News Online, July 8, 2008. 165 ibid. 166 Jia, Hepeng. “Study Finds Chinese Obesity Rates Soaring,” SciDevNet, July 21, 2008, www.scidev.net. 167 Livestock’s Long Shadow. op. cit. 168 Otremba, Jolene. “Experts: Antibiotics Misuse in Asia Serious,” Voice of America, August 25, 2005. 169 ibid. 170 “Vegetarian in Beijing: ‘Don’t Eat Your Friends,’” http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=TiDRomCezrs 171 Jiang, Jingsong. “The Environmental Benefits of Vegetarianism,” China Dialogue, September 3, 2007. 172 ibid. 173 Personal communication, Professor Gu Xianhong, May 2008. 174 Chen, Jia. “Porcine Playtime Proves Propitious,” China Daily, April 8, 2008. 175 ibid. 176 Personal communication, Philip Brooke, Compassion in World Farming, April 2008. 177 ibid. 178 Personal communication, Professor Gu Xianhong, May 2008. 179 Personal communication, Philip

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Brooke. op. cit. 180 Importance of Animal Welfare Science for the Future conference, October 2009. http://bbs.bjp.org. cn/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic. php?post_id=269236. 181 Wang, Qian. “Draft Law to  Punish

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Animal Cruelty,” China Daily, June 19, 2009 and “Proposed Animal Welfare Law Watered Down,” china.org.cn, January 26, 2010. 182 Dunlop, Fuschia. A Sweet-Sour Memoir of Eating in China, New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2008.

183 Jiang, Jingsong. “The Environmental Benefits of Vegetarianism.” op. cit. 184 Putting Meat on the Table: Industrial Farm Animal Production in America. A Report of the Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production, 2008.

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