State of the Philippine Climate 2015

The State of the Philippine Climate is an annual report that provides a summary of observations of the country’s climate and climate-related disasters. As the first of this series, this maiden issue contains a summary of long-term and latest climate trends and disaster statistics in the country from 1951 up to 2014. PAGASA has been observing and reporting on weather in the Philippines since the 1950s, and the Oscar M. Lopez Center is its partner in bringing weather and climate information to build climate-resilient Filipino communities.

State of the Philippine Climate 2015

This is the first of a series of annual reports entitled State of the Philippine Climate. Also available at: http://www.omlopezcenter.org/resources All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be commercially reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) or the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center). This publication is made purely for education and research purposes and may not be used or resold commercially or contrary to the aforementioned purposes. Once access and reproduction or distribution is granted, PAGASA and the Oscar M. Lopez Center shall be acknowledged as the publisher thereof, and shall be furnished with a copy of any publication that uses this report as a source. For requests for reproduction, distribution or transmission of this publication for authorized uses and purposes, the request should be addressed to the OML Center at [email protected]

or The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. 36th Flr. One Corporate Center, Julia Vargas corner Meralco Avenues Ortigas, Pasig City 1605 Philippines No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from PAGASA and the Oscar M. Lopez Center. Disclaimer: This report is made possible by the generous support of the First Philippine Holdings Corporation (FPH) through the Lopez Group Foundations, Inc. (LGFI). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the FPH or the LGFI.

Suggested Citation: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center). 2015. State of the Philippine Climate 2015. November 2015. Available at http://www.omlopezcenter.org/ Language: English © Copyright 2015 by Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) Editors: Vicente Malano and Rodel Lasco Editorial Advisory Board: Flaviana Hilario, Edna Juanillo Production Team: Thelma Cinco, Rosalina de Guzman, Rosa Barba, Ryan Orogo, Marcelino Villafuerte (PAGASA) Rafaela Jane Delfino, Jamila Audrey Palomar, Perlyn Pulhin, David Wilson (Oscar M. Lopez Center) Lay-out by Rafaela Jane Delfino and Jamila Audrey Palomar Cover image graphic design by Ozzy Boy Nicopior

Vicente Malano Rodel Lasco Editors

State of the Philippine Climate 2015

Messages

i

Temperature

1

Rainfall

2

El Niño Southern Oscillation 3 Monsoon 4 Tropical Cyclones

5

Last Five Years

8

Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in the Philippines

10

Messages In recent years, our country has experienced several high-impact weather-related events such as tropical cyclones and monsoon rains that greatly disrupted the lives of Filipinos. In fact, natural disasters in the Philippines are mostly caused by tropical cyclones; and hazards brought about by monsoons are becoming much more prevalent. As such, keeping abreast of our country's climate-trends are of utmost importance. In this maiden issue of State of the Philippine Climate, we discuss the long-term and recent trends of our country’s climate and our vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate-related hazards. We hope that with this knowledge, we may all be able to plan, prepare, and implement appropriate measures to reduce the impacts of climate change.

It is with great pleasure that we present to you the State of the Philippine Climate by PAGASA and the Oscar M. Lopez Center. This is the first volume of the annual series which provides the summary and analysis of observed climate trends and climaterelated disasters in the country. It also highlights the latest trends from the last five years. Climate-related events such as extreme temperature increase, drought, flood, rain-induced landslides, and tropical cyclones cause a significant threat to life and property. We hope you utilize this report to increase your knowledge of our country’s climate and reflect on appropriate responses to address and adequately prepare for changing climate conditions. Until the next issue.

Rodel D. Lasco, PhD Scientific Director Oscar M. Lopez Center i

1

Temperature Annual Mean Temperature Since the 1950s, the Philippine climate, much like the rest of the region and the globe, is warming. Annual mean temperature has increased by 0.65°C from 1951 to 2010. 1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Anomaly (deg Celsius)

1.00

Observed annual mean temperature anomalies (19512010) in the Philippines based on 1971-2000 normal values

-0.50

Annual Mean Temperature Annual Mean Temperature Anomalyanomaly 5-year moving average 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly) Linear trendMean Temperature Anomaly) Linear (Annual

-0.40

-1.00

Year

Key Points: •From 1951-2010, there has been an increasing trend in annual mean temperature. •Temperature anomalies show a minimum of -0.40 °C (1971) to a maximum of +1.0 °C (1998).Temperature anomalies (deviation from the average temperature) show mostly positive trends from 1987. •Despite the overall upward trend, there remains an inter-annual variability, showing some positive and negative anomalies in some years.

Extreme Temperature Indices Daily temperature extremes reveal more hot days and fewer cold nights. Trends in the frequency of days with minimum temperature below the 1st percentile (cold nights) and the trends in frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 99th percentile (hot days)

Key Points: • Increasing number of hot days Decreasing number of • cold nights

Cold nights

1

Hot days

Rainfall Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Although there are increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall events from 1951-2010 at most stations throughout the Philippines, the majority do not show a high level of statistical significance. There remains a high level of temporal and spatial variability. Trends in extreme daily rainfall intensity (left) and frequency (right) in the Philippines (1951– 2010) compared with the 1961–1990 mean values

Frequency

Intensity

Key Points: • Majority of the weather stations all over the country showed increasing (+) trend in number of days with extreme rainfall events. • Rainfall trends in some synoptic weather stations show a significant increase in both intensity and frequency (particularly in Laoag, Infanta, Tacloban, Iloilo and Cotabato). Extreme rainfall intensity is the mean intensity of events greater than or equal to the 99th percentile each year. Extreme rainfall frequency is the mean frequency of events greater than or equal to the 99th percentile each year.

2

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the ocean component (El Niño) and the atmospheric component (southern oscillation) of a naturally occurring phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña refer to the pattern of above or below average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. ENSO is the most important source of inter-annual variability of rainfall in the Philippines. El Niño is the unusual warming of the ocean surface in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. It is strongly linked to the negative phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). SOI are derived from the differences in atmospheric pressure over Tahiti and Darwin. Two of the strongest El Niño events that caused significant damage to the country were the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 events. However, El Niño could also bring rains. The 1972 great floods and 2009 flooding brought by TS Ondoy in Luzon and the 2004 landslides in Real, Infanta and General Nakar, Quezon both happened during an El Niño episode.

Key Points: • El Niño brings dry weather and droughts, but we could also expect extreme rainfall conditions that could trigger floods and landslides in some parts of the country. • La Niña stands for rainy weather and floods. La Niña is the opposite of El Nino and sometimes referred to as 'El Viejo', 'cold event' or 'cold episode'. It is associated with the positive phase of SOI. For example, the flooding in Camarines Sur which occurred at the height of typhoon Loleng in 1998 was exacerbated by the effects of the La Niña phenomenon which existed during that period. Another La Niña impact was the 2006 Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte landslide which occurred after strong rains (200cm in 10 days) and killed over 1000 residents. The rain was enhanced by the northeast monsoon, affected by the 2006 La Niña episode.

3

Monsoon A monsoon is a consistent wind pattern generated by a large weather system that lasts for a period of months and affects large areas. There are two monsoon seasons in the country: southwest monsoon or habagat and northeast monsoon or amihan. Key Points: • Southwest monsoon (Habagat) usually means wet conditions in the western sections of the country from June to September. Habagat usually brings significant amount of rainfall that triggers flooding and landslides, and is sometimes further enhanced by the presence of tropical cyclones in PAR. • Northeast monsoon (Amihan) features cool and dry breeze with prolonged periods of successive cloudless days. It affects the eastern sections of the country from November to February. The most notable monsoon activity was the enhanced southwest monsoon (or Habagat) that was observed on 6-8 August 2012. It was followed by another episode in August 2013. Habagat 2012 (enhanced by Typhoon Haikui)

Habagat 2013 (enhanced by Tropical Storm Maring)

Estimated Rainfall 1,007.4 mm of rain (3-day period) measured in Science Garden, Q.C.

1,120.2 mm of rain (5-day period) measured in Sangley Point, Cavite

Regions and Population Affected 934,285 families or 4,236,151 persons in 2,634 barangays, 175 municipalities, 36 cities, and 17 provinces in 6 regions

689,527 families or 3,096,392 persons in 2,124 barangays, 160 municipalities, 37 cities, and 18 provinces in 6 regions

Casualties and Injuries 109 dead 14 injured 4 missing

27 dead 30 injured 4 missing

Cost of Damages P 3 billion in total damages Note: Highlighted provinces are those that are most affected by the event. Red dots represent the location of PAGASA stations.

P 689 million in total damages Source: NDRRMC

Historically, recorded worst flood events based on cost of damages and affected population due to the southwest monsoon were 1962 and 1972, and for the northeast monsoon, 1924, 1964, 1970-1971, 19731975. In recent years, the northeast monsoon in 2000-2001 and 2006 also caused severe flooding. In July 1972, one of the most disastrous floods in the country took place due to intense monsoon flow causing prolonged rains. Low-lying areas in Pampanga and Bulacan were submerged when floodwater rose up to rooftop level of houses. Most streets in Manila were also submerged. Laguna de Bay overflowed and inundated the surrounding towns. It is interesting to note that the 1972 great flood over Luzon occurred during an El Niño episode.

4

Tropical Cyclones The trend analysis reveals no indication of increase in the frequency of Tropical cyclones (TCs) that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The highest number of occurrence per year is 32 (in 1993); the lowest is 11 (in 1998 and in 2010); with an annual average of 19.4. 35

32

30

Number of TCs

25 20 15 10

11

11

5 0 1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

Year

Annual number of TCs that entered PAR from 1951 to 2013 showing 5-year running mean (dashed orange line) and linear trend (dotted black line).

Key Points: •Data indicates a slight decrease in the annual frequency of TCs for the observed time period. •Also, TCs in the PAR were less frequent in the most recent decades. •The 5-year running mean reached its lowest during the period between 1998-2002.

TC tracks from 1971 to 2013

5

Source: IBTRACS, NOAA

Tropical Cyclones Crossing and landfall 35

Non-landfalling Landfalling

Annual number of TCs in the PAR and crossing the Philippines from 1951-2013.

Number of Tropical Cyclones

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Year

Key Points: •The number of landfalling TCs has decreased, especially in the last two decades. •The number of extreme TCs (with 150 kph maximum sustained winds and above) that entered PAR shows a slightly increasing trend.

Extreme TCs 12

10

(10), 2004 (9),1987

8 Number of TC

Frequency of TCs with wind speed of 150 kph and above that entered PAR from 1971-2013. The green, orange, and blue bars show ENSO condition during that year i.e. neutral, El Nino, and La Nina years, respectively. The red dashed line shows fiveyear running mean and the black line shows the linear trend; the annual average (5.8) is marked by the blue long dashed line. .

Neutral year El Niño year La Niña year

6

4

2

0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Year

6

Tropical Cyclones Northern Luzon Southern Luzon Visayas Mindanao 5-yr running mean 5Northern per. Mov. Luzon Avg. (Northern Luzon) 5Southern per. Mov.Luzon Avg. (Southern Luzon) 5Visayas per. Mov. Avg. (Visayas) 5Mindanao per. Mov. Avg. (Mindanao)

14 12

8 6 4 2

Year

Five-year running mean of tropical cyclones in Northern Luzon (blue), Southern Luzon (red), Visayas (green) and Mindanao (violet) from 1951-2013. Northern Luzon includes Regions 1-3, CAR and NCR; Southern Luzon includes Region 4A, 4B and 5; Visayas comprises of Regions 6-8 while Mindanao is composed of Regions 9-13 and ARMM

Based on the annual number of TCs per region of the Philippines, inter-annual variability persists, but most TCs affected Luzon and Southern Luzon, followed by Visayas and lastly Mindanao. From 2009-2013, however, the number of TCs in Mindanao increased. Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Northern Southern Visayas Mindanao TOTAL Luzon Luzon 6 3 5 3 5

1 3 2 5 4

3 0 2 3 4

2 0 1 2 4

12 6 10 13 17

Key points: • Most TCs affect Northern and Southern Luzon, followed by Visayas, and lastly Mindanao. • In the past five years, there has been an increasing number of recorded TCs in Mindanao.

7

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

1963

1961

1959

1957

1955

1953

0 1951

Numnber of TCs

10

Last Five Years Over the last five years (2010-2014), the country has seen several climate- and weather-related events such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and monsoon rains which have triggered hazards (such as storm surge and floods) turning into significant disasters. Key Points: • Natural disasters are mostly caused by tropical cyclones. • Number of TCs that entered PAR in 2013 (25) is more than double of the 2010 record (11). • Cost of damages from TCs continue to rise, highest in 2013. • Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), Pablo (Bopha), and Sendong (Washi) caused the highest number of casualties and damages to properties in the last five years.

TC tracks in PAR from 2010-2014

Number of natural disaster events in the Philippines from 2010-2014 Tropical cyclone Riverine flood Flash flood Landslide Earthquake Volcanic activity Source: Emergency Event Database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.emdat.be (accessed on August 2015)

Number of Tropical Cyclone (per category) from 2010-2014 inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility Category TD TS TY TOTAL

2010 1 6 4 11

2011 6 7 6 19

2012 0 7 10 17

2013 9 6 10 25

2014 3 6 10 19

A tropical storm (TS) has winds moving at a range between 64 kph to 117 kph. It is considered a typhoon (TY) when its wind speed exceeds 118 kph

Total Cost of Damages from TCs (in million pesos)

102,392

49,079

44,948 27,195 12,392

2010

8

2011

2012

2013

2014

Last Five Years Significant Climate-Related Disasters (2010-2014) Based on the number of casualties, people affected and total cost of damages

Total number of casualties 6300 1268 1067 196 112 110 103

TY Yolanda TS Sendong TY Pablo TY Basyang Habagat (SW Monsoon)* Flooding (Bicol)* TY Pedring

November 2013 December 2011 December 2012 July 2010 August 2012 December 2010 September 2011

Total number of people affected 16,078,181 6,243,998 4,653,716 4,451,725

TY Yolanda TY Pablo TY Glenda Habagat (SW Monsoon)*

November 2013 December 2012 August 2012 August 2013

4,149,484 3,096,422 3,030,846 2,052,141 2,008,894

TY Ruby TY Labuyo / SW Monsoon* TY Pedring TS Mario TY Juan

December 2014 September 2011 September 2014 October 2010 December 2010

Total cost of damages (PhP) 89,598,068,634.88 38,616,610,414.00 36,949,230,987.07 14,964,489,302.72 12,013,575,820.00 3,399,424,192.51

TY Yolanda TY Glenda TY Pablo TY Pedring TY Juan TS Mario

Source: NDRRMC and with* http://www.emdat.be/

9

November 2013 July 2014 December 2012 September 2011 October 2010 September 2014

2010 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in the Philippines Typhoon Juan International Name: Megi October 16-21 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 225/260 kph Caused severe damage to life and property (estimated at 12 billion pesos) due to strong winds and heavy downpour over Northern Luzon. Several provinces experienced landslides and several dams were forced to release water.

Typhoon Basyang International Name: Conson July 11-14 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 120/194 kph Intensified as a tropical storm as it moved through Catanduanes. It continued to strengthen as it moved from East to West over North Luzon up to Aurora and Quezon Area. An estimated 377 million pesos worth of infrastructure and agriculture were damaged and 102 people were killed.

10

Note: Highlighted provinces are those that are most affected by the event.

2011 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in the Philippines Typhoon Juaning

Typhoon Mina

International Name: Nock-ten July 25-28

International Name: Nanmadol October 16-21

Maximum Winds/Gusts: 95/120 kph

Maximum Winds/Gusts: 195/230 kph

Damaged 4.4 billion pesos worth of properties when it made landfall at 95 kph with gust of 120kph and hit northern and central Luzon as well as some parts of southern Luzon. It exited in Ilocos Sur and intensified again over West Philippine Sea.

PSWS no. 4 was raised in Northern Cagayan as the typhoon moved at 120 kph near the center with gust of 150 kph. A total of agricultural and infrastructural damages were estimated at 2.1 billion pesos.

Typhoon Pedring International Name: Nesat September 24-28 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 140/170 kph PSWS no. 3 was raised in the eastern section of northern and central Luzon as it moved at 130 kph. PSWS no. 3 was also raised in neighboring provinces as it gained more strength at 140 kph. The typhoon damaged 13.45 billion pesos worth of agriculture and 2.1 billion pesos worth of infrastructure; leaving 87 killed and 91 injured.

Typhoon Sendong International Name: Washi December 15-18 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 75/90 kph 1,268 people died and 6,071 were injured as Sendong moved across eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao. Two (2) billion pesos worth of property damages were brought about by the tropical storm.

11

Note: Highlighted provinces are those that are most affected by the event.

2012 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in the Philippines

Typhoon Gener International Name: Saola July 28 – August 2 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 130/160 kph Considered a mesocyclone on July 29 which affected most of Central Luzon along with more than 20 other provinces in Luzon and Visayas. TY Gener resulted in more than one (1) billion pesos worth in agricultural losses.

Habagat (SW Monsoon) August 6 – 8 Many parts of Luzon experienced severe flooding. A total of 60 municipalities/ cities were flooded, nearly four (4) million people were affected, with billions of pesos worth of damages to infrastructure and agriculture.

Typhoon Pablo International Name: Bopha December 2 – 6 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 185/220 kph It was the strongest tropical cyclone to ever hit the Mindanao, making landfall as a typhoon with winds of 185 kph. Nationwide, Typhoon Pablo killed 1,901 people, affected more than 6.2 million people and cost a total of 39 million pesos in socio-economic damages.

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Note: Highlighted provinces are those that are most affected by the event.

2013 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in the Philippines Typhoon Labuyo International Name: Utor August 9-12 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 175/210 kph Heavy damages amounting to 1.6 billion pesos occurred in Casiguran, Aurora when typhoon Labuyo made landfall at 175 kph and gustiness of 210 kph. Eleven were left dead, seven (7) injured and three (3) were reported missing.

Typhoon Odette International Name: Usugi September 16-22 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 215/250 kph Typhoon Odette was the strongest typhoon to hit Batanes group of islands, making landfall at 215 kph. 753.6mm of rainfall caused flooding in Calayan Island. 340 million pesos worth of property were damaged. Four were killed, 16 were injured, and two (2) were reported missing.

Habagat (SW Monsoon) August 13

Tropical Storm Maring International Name: Trami August 17-21 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 105/135 kph Tropical Storm Maring enhanced the southwest monsoon, bringing heavy rains over Luzon which caused extensive flooding in NCR and other provinces in Luzon. Maring damaged 1.4B pesos worth of property, left 32 dead, 30 injured, and three (3) were reported missing.

Typhoon Yolanda International Name: Haiyan November 6-9 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 235/275 kph Typhoon Yolanda was one of the strongest and disastrous tropical cyclones to hit the Philippines. It entered PAR with maximum sustained winds of 195 kph and gustiness of 230 kph and intensified up to 235 kph with gust of 270 kph which greatly threatened eastern Visayas. 6,300 were killed, 28, 689 were injured, and 1,061 were reported missing. An estimated total of 43.16 billion pesos worth of damages (25.25B in agriculture, 12. 05B in infrastructure, and 58.18B in private) were caused by Typhoon Yolanda.

13

Note: Highlighted provinces are those that are most affected by the event.

2014 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in the Philippines Tropical Storm Mario International Name: Fung-wong September 17-21 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 105/135 kph

Typhoon Glenda

Tropical Storm Mario enhanced the southwest monsoon bringing in heavy to intense (2040mm/hour) precipitation in NCR which resulted in flooding in Metro Manila and neighboring areas. 3.4 billion pesos worth of property (infrastructure and agriculture) were damaged; 2.1 million people were affected: 18 were killed, 16 were injured, and four (4) were reported missing.

International Name: Rammasun July 28 – August 2 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 150/180 kph Typhoon Glenda affected Regions I, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VIII, and NCR. A total of 38. 31 billion pesos worth of property were damaged (i.e. 33.8B agriculture, 4.26B infrastructure, and 2.47 private property); A total of 4.65 million people were affected: 106 were killed, 1,250 were injured, and five (5) were reported missing.

Typhoon Ruby International name: Hagupit December 2-10 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 215/250 kph Typhoon Ruby made landfall in Dolores, Masbate, Marinduque and Batangas moving at 175 kph. Ruby weakened at 60 kph when it traversed the rugged terrain in Batangas and moved towards Lubang Island. 3.3 billion worth of properties were damaged; a total of 4.1 million people were affected: 18 people were killed, and 916 were injured.

Tropical Storm Seniang International Name: Jangmi December 28 – 31 Maximum Winds/Gusts: 65/80 kph Tropical storm Seniang made its first landfall in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. It affected more than 124,000 families in Regions IV-B, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI and CARAGA and caused 66 deaths, and 43 injuries.

14

Note: Highlighted provinces are those that are most affected by the event.

Definition of Terms and References PAGASA’s Revised Public Storm Warning System

Definition of Terms Anomaly: The difference between the mean of any meteorological element, and the phase of that element over the same time for all other points on the same parallel of latitude. Climate: An average portrait of weather conditions in a specific place over a long period. Cyclone: A low pressure system in which winds spin inward in a counter clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere. El Niño: The unusual warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial tropical Pacific.

PS WS

Lead Time (hours)

Winds (kph)

1

36

30 – 60

No damage to very light damage

2

24

61 – 120

Light to moderate damage

3

18

121 – 170

Moderate to heavy damage

4

12

171 – 220

Heavy to very heavy damage

5

12

More than 220

Very heavy to widespread damage

La Niña: The opposite of El Nino and sometimes referred to as 'El Viejo', 'cold event' or 'cold episode'. Mean Temperature: The average of a series of temperatures taken over a period of time, such as a day or a month. Monsoon: A wind that reverses its direction with the season, blowing more or less steadily from the interior of a continent toward the sea in winter, and in the opposite direction during summer. Rainfall: A term sometimes synonymous with rain, but most frequently used in reference to amounts of precipitation which includes snow, hail, etc.

Impacts of the Wind

Updated Tropical Cyclone Classifications TC Type

Winds (kph)

Tropical Depression

Up to 61

Tropical Storm

61 – 88

Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with winds of 64 to 118 kph.

Severe Tropical Storm

89 – 117

Typhoon: A tropical cyclone with winds more than 118 kph.

Typhoon

118 – 220

Super Typhoon

Exceeding 220

Tropical Cyclone: The general term for a cyclone that originates over the tropical oceans. Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with winds that do not exceed 63 kph. Most common in the region of the equatorial or inter-tropical convergence and less frequently in the trade winds.

Acronyms ENSO kph NDRRMC PAGASA SW/NE TC TD TS TY

El Niño Southern Oscillation kilometers per hour National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Southwest/Northeast Monsoon Tropical Cyclone Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Typhoon

References Cinco, T., De Guzman, R., Hilario, F., Wilson, D. (2014). Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951–2010. Atmospheric Research. 145, 12-26. Hilario F, De Guzman R, Ortega D, Hayman P, Alexander B. 2009. El Nino Southern Oscillation in the Philippines: Impacts, Forecasts, and Risk Management. Philippine Journal of Development Vol 36, No. 1.

For more information on our country’s past and future climate, visit the:

Moya, T.B., Malayang III, B.S. (2004). Climate variability and deforestation–reforestation dynamics in the Philippines. Environ. Dev. Sustain. 6, 261–277.

Climate Knowledge Portal for the Philippines

PAGASA. (2011). Climate Change in the Philippines. PAGASA. (2015. PAGASA Modifies Public Storm Warning System [Press release].

http://www.omlopezcenter.org/portal

NDRRMC. http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/

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The Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the impacts of climate-related hazards. Extreme weather events i.e. tropical cyclones and monsoon rains have triggered hazards (such as storm surges, flooding, landslides and severe droughts) that have turned into major disasters in the past until the most recent times. These events have led to losses of life and property. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the last 63 years (from 1951) and even the past five years (2010-2014) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, increasing frequency of stronger typhoons will have direct impacts on different sectors of society.

http://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

http://www.omlopezcenter.org/