SMRT Corp Ltd Facing significant risk to bottom line growth, undermined by challenging Train operations

4 May 2015

SINGAPORE | TRANSPORT SERVICES | RESULTS    

S$1.24 bn Full year revenue within consensus expectations of S$1.23 bn. S$91.0 mn Full year PATMI slightly below consensus expectations of S$94.9 mn. Final proposed DPS of 1.75 Cents, full year payout 54.4%. (4Q FY14 DPS: 1.20 Cents, FY14 payout: 54.1%) Maintain "Reduce" rating with unchanged target price of S$1.54.

What is the news? SMRT Corp Ltd ("SMRT") announced its Full Year FY 2015 (Y/E Mar) results on 30 April after trading hours, followed by the Analyst and Media briefing on 4 May morning. Results at a glance

(SGD mn)

Reduce (Maintained) SGD 1.675 SGD 0.035 SGD 1.540 -6.0%

LAST DONE PRICE FORECAST DIV TARGET PRICE TOTAL RETURN COMPANY DATA O/S SHA RES (M N) :

1,522

M A RKET CA P (USD mn / SGD mn) :

1915 / 2550

52 - WK HI/LO (SGD) :

FY15

FY14 y-y (%) Comments

Revenue 1,236 1,164 6.2 Broad bas ed growth acros s mos t of the s egments EBITDA 313.9 255.5 22.9 EBIT 120.8 84.2 43.4 Better performance i n the Bus operati ons PATMI 91.0 61.9 47.0 Source: Company, Phi l l i p Securi ti es Res earch (Si ngapore)

Analyst briefing key takeaway  Telcos are charged a competitive rate for their base stations within the MRT network. The exact rate was not disclosed, but guided as not a meaningful percentage of the rental income.  Justification for being the lowest bidder for the "Bulim bus package". Management guided that they have the advantage of incumbency (low start-up costs involved); and the value-proposition that SMRT brings to the table is good service and ground knowledge of the exiting routes.  Capex guidance. Planned Capex for the next two years (FY16 & FY17) steady, similar to FY15. How do we view this  Trains-business likely to erode earnings from other business segments. The Trainsbusiness is the largest revenue contributor (FY15: 51%) to the Group and has turned unprofitable this quarter. We expect the Train-business to face significant challenges in FY16 due to higher Repair & Maintenance expense, higher staff costs and tighter Regulator standards to meet. For perspective, a 1ppt reduction in Trains EBIT-margin erodes 8% of Rental profits, based on FY15 numbers.  Bus-model restructuring now a potential de-rating catalyst. Bus-business was previously unprofitable, and the announcement of the transition to the Government Contracting Model (GCM) re-rated the stock because SMRT would either lose market share of a loss-making business, or retain market share to a profitable business. Now that SMRT's Bus-business has turned profitable, this narrows the upside risk and widens the downside risk.  Margins for Rental business have compressed. EBIT margin for this segment used to be mid-70%, but fell 9pps this FY to 66%. This arises from the sublease structure of the Kallang Wave Mall and start-up costs. Investment Actions Challenging outlook for Train-business (largest revenue contributor) outweighs the positives from the improvement in Bus-business. We maintain out "Reduce" rating on SMRT, with unchanged target price of S$1.54. This gives an implied forward P/E multiple of 25.1x, which is in line with 5-year average of 25.9x. Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE) MCI (P) 019/11/2014 Ref. No.: SG2015_0140

1.82 / 1.24

3M A verage Daily T/O (mn) :

2.07

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%) TEM A SEK HOLDINGS P TE LTD

54.2%

A LLIA NZ SE

1.1%

JP M ORGA N CHA SE & CO

0.8%

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M T H 3 M T H

1Y R

COM P A NY

5.3

(3.7)

40.5

STI RETURN

2.2

4.2

10.5

PRICE VS. STI 2.00 1.80

1.60 1.40

1.20 1.00 May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

MRT SP EQUITY

May-15

FSSTI index

So urce: B lo o mberg, P SR

KEY FINANCIALS Y / E M ar

Revenue (SGD mn)

F Y 14

F Y 15 F Y 16 e F Y 17e

1,164

1,236

1,288

1,350

NP A T, adj (SGD mn)

61.9

91.0

93.3

96.2

EP S, adj. (Cents)

4.07

5.98

6.13

6.32

P /E, adj. (x) B VP S (Cents) P /B (x) DP S (Cents) Div. Yield (%)

26.4 52.69

27.4 56.43

2.0 2.20

27.5 59.28

2.9 3.25

2.0

2.8 3.45

2.0

So urce: Co mpany Data, P SR est.

VALUATION METHOD DCF (WA CC: 5.8%, Terminal g: 1.0%)

Richard Leow, CFTe (+65 6531 1735) [email protected]

2.0

26.6 62.11 2.7 3.50 2.1

SMRT CORP LTD RESULTS

SMRT 5 years P/E multiple 60x 50x

Source: Bloomberg

40x 30x 20x

10x 2010



2011

2012

2013

5-year historical average of 25.9x.

Page | 2 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

2014

2015

SMRT CORP LTD RESULTS

Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, SGD mn Revenue Other opera ti ng i ncome EBITDA Depreci a ti on & Amorti s a ti on EBIT Net Fi na nce (Expens e)/Inc Other i tems As s oci a tes & JVs Excepti ona l i tems Profit Before Tax Ta xa ti on Profit After Tax - Non-control l i ng i nteres t Net Income, reported Net Income, adj.

FY13

FY14

FY15 FY16e FY17e

1,119 1,164 1,236 1,288 1,350 36.3 42.1 58.0 49.6 54.7 278 256 314 321 353 (151) (171) (193) (197) (224) 127 84 121 124 129 (4.8) (9.2) (10.9) (11.0) (12.8) (0.4) (0.4) 1.0 1.0 1.0 (17.3) 105 75 111 114 117 (21.9) (13.2) (20.4) (21.2) (21.8) 83 61 90 93 96 (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) 83.3 61.9 91.0 93.3 96.2 100.6 61.9 91.0 93.3 96.2

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, SGD mn ASSETS

FY13

FY14

1,436 14 51 32 1,532 60 86 546 692 2,224

1,642 14 53 21 1,729 84 99 5.0 156 344 2,073

2,042 14 56 21 2,132 81 168 156 405 2,537

2,245 14 57 21 2,336 84 175 117 376 2,712

2,211 14 57 21 2,303 88 183 161 433 2,735

2 577 54 633 607 216 823

156 355 54 566 480 225 705

9 568 63 640 813 226 1,038

9 592 81 682 913 215 1,128

9 559 99 667 913 211 1,124

1,456

1,271

1,678

1,810

1,790

0.3 768

(0.1) 802

(0.6) 860

(1.2) 903

(1.8) 947

Y/E Mar

FY13

FY14

FY15 FY16e FY17e

P/E (X), a dj. P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X), a dj. Di vi dend Yi el d (%) Growth & Margins (%) Growth Revenue EBITDA EBIT Net Income, a dj. Margins EBITDA ma rgi n EBIT ma rgi n Net Profi t Ma rgi n Key Ratios ROE (%) ROA (%)

23.0 3.0 8.5 1.6%

26.4 2.0 8.3 2.0%

27.4 2.9 10.1 2.0%

PPE Inta ngi bl es As s oci a tes & JVs Inves tments Others Total non-current assets Inventori es Accounts Recei va bl es Inves tments Ca s h Others Total current assets Total Assets

FY15 FY16e FY17e

LIABILITIES Short term l oa ns Accounts Pa ya bl es Others Total current liabilities Long term l oa ns Others Total non-current liabilities

Per share data (Cents)

Y/E Mar EPS, reported EPS, a dj. DPS BVPS

FY13

FY14

5.50 6.62 2.50 50.54

4.07 4.07 2.20 52.69

FY13

FY14

FY15 FY16e FY17e 5.98 5.98 3.25 56.43

6.13 6.13 3.45 59.28

6.32 6.32 3.50 62.11

Total Liabilities EQUITY Non-control l i ng i nteres t Shareholder Equity

Cash Flow

Y/E Mar, SGD mn

FY15 FY16e FY17e

CFO PBT 105 75 111 114 117 Adjus tments 193 187 198 191 240 WC cha nges (18.9) (12.8) (10.0) 13.5 (45.9) Ca s h genera ted from ops 279 249 298 319 311 Others (19) (15) (21) (34) (36) Cashflow from ops 260 234 277 285 275 CFI CAPEX, net (248) (649) (461) (410) (194) Di vd from a s s oci a tes & JVs 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others (14.4) 6.5 4.9 1.5 1.2 Cashflow from investments (262) (643) (456) (408) (193) CFF Sha re i s s ua nce, net 0.57 0.05 Loa ns , net of repa yments 460 29 189 100 Di vi dends (109) (30) (41) (49) (53) Others 2.5 18.9 30.5 33.6 14.0 Cashflow from financing 353 17 178 84 (39) Net change in cash 351 (391) (0) (39) 44 Effects of excha nge ra tes (0.1) 0.2 0.8 CCE, end 546 156 156 117 161 Source: Compa ny, Phi l l i p Securi ti es Res ea rch (Si nga pore) Es ti ma tes

Page | 3 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

Valuation Ratios

Net Debt or (Net Ca s h) Net Gea ri ng (X)

5.9% 4.0% 6.2% -7.3% -8.1% 22.9% -25.1% -33.9% 43.4% -28.9% -38.5% 47.0%

27.5 2.8 10.5 2.0%

26.6 2.7 9.4 2.1%

4.2% 4.9% 2.3% 10.0% 2.6% 4.4% 2.6% 3.1%

24.8% 22.0% 25.4% 24.9% 26.2% 11.4% 7.2% 9.8% 9.6% 9.6% 7.4% 5.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 12.9% 5.1% 63 0.08

7.9% 11.0% 10.6% 10.4% 2.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 481 0.60

665 0.77

805 0.89

761 0.80

SMRT CORP LTD RESULTS

Ratings History 2.00

Market Price

1.80

Target Price

Source: Bl oomberg, PSR

1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

1 2 3 4 5 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumul a te 2 -5% to +5% Neutra l 3 -5% to -20% Reduce 4 < -20% Sel l 5 Remarks We do not ba s e our recommenda tions entirel y on the a bove qua ntitative return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i tative fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s entiment, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a tion, pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca tal ys ts , a nd s pecul a tive undertones s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda tion

Page | 4 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

SMRT CORP LTD RESULTS

Contact Information (Singapore Research Team) Management Chan Wai Chee (CEO, Research - Special Opportunities)

[email protected]

Research Operations Officer Jaelyn Chin [email protected]

Market Analyst | Equities Kenneth Koh [email protected]

US Equities Wong Yong Kai

[email protected]

Finance | Offshore Marine Benjamin Ong [email protected]

Real Estate Caroline Tay

REITs Dehong Tan

[email protected]

Transport & Logistics Richard Leow, [email protected] CFTe

Consumer

Macro | Equities Soh Lin Sin Bakhteyar Osama

[email protected] [email protected]

SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel +65 6533 6001 Fax +65 6535 6631 Website: www.poems.com.sg

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[email protected]

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