7 July 2014
Singapore Exchange Limited Tepid securities market activity
Neutral
Rating:
(Maintained at Neutral)
SINGAPORE | INVESTMENT SERVICES | UPDATE
Securities Daily Average Value (SDAV) saw a slight recovery of 3.5% q-q to S1.125 but trade volumes remain suppressed with SDAV down 30.1% y-y based on SGX figures. Securities activity levels are persistently lower than expected and we see limited drivers in the near-term, leading us to revise our FY15 forecasted SDAV downwards. The “SGX Market Maker and Liquidity Provider Programme” has been available since 1 Jun 14. Market makers and liquidity providers are incentivized through clearing fee rebates and depending on if they are price-taking/making in nature. Rebates can potentially reduce clearing fees to zero for market makers (more stringent criterions and commitment) and up to 75% for liquidity providers. In our view, this would likely boost liquidity and encourage trade volumes but success hinges on the number and quality of market participants. Other micro-structural changes like board lot size reduction would also compliment this programme in our opinion. Derivatives Daily Average Volume (DDAV) has shrunk by 8.9% q-q to 0.412 million contracts and 20.2% y-y from an exceptionally strong 4Q13. Maintain at “Neutral”, with a revised Target price of S$7.45 based on revised EPS and PE multiple of 23X FY14 earnings as we roll over our valuations to FY15.
Target Price (SGD) Forecast Dividend (SGD) Closing Price (SGD) Potential Upside
7.45 0.30 6.94 11.7%
Company Description SGX Ltd opera tes a s a n i ntegra ted s ecuri ti es a nd deri va ti ves excha nge i n Si nga pore. Securi ty products i ncl ude equi ti es , bonds , excha nge tra ded funds , wa rra nts , a nd ADRs . Deri va ti ves products i ncl ude futures a nd opti ons , s tructured wa rra nts , a nd extended s ettl ements .
Company Data Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data)
0.85
Market Cap. (USD mn / SGD mn)
What is the news? SGX Ltd will be announcing its FY14 results on 30 Jul 2014. Based on monthly statistics recently released by SGX, 4Q14’s SDAV recovered 3.5% q-q to S$1.125 billion. DDAV shrunk in 4Q14, decreasing 8.9% q-q to 0.412 million contracts.
1.2
Closing Px in 52 week range 6.66
7.70
0%
50%
100%
8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00
20 15
10 5 0
SGX SP EQUITY
Major Shareholders 1. SEL Hol di ngs Pte Ltd 2. Ja pa n Excha nge Group Inc 3. Va ngua rd Group Inc
Jul-14
Apr-14
Volume, mn
Jan-14
Oct-13
While we expect SDAV and DDAV to pick up in FY15 and FY16 with recoveries in some major markets especially so for US and China, securities activity levels are persistently subdued which pose as a near-term headwind for SGX. Potentially, the introduction of market makers and liquidity providers could serve to increase market volumes but gestation length is unclear at such an early stage. The lack of near-term catalysts to alleviate the low SDAV levels has led us to trim our EPS forecast. We continue to expect the Derivatives business to be a key growth driver in the medium to long term until micro-structural changes in the securities business succeed in lifting volumes. Key re-rating catalyst will be a sustained pick-up in market volumes from external macro drivers and the success of the SGX introduced measures for boosting liquidity, IPOs and take-off of new derivatives products launched.
3M Average Daily T/O (mn)
Jul-13
How do we view this? We expect Securities Revenue to pick up as SDAV has recovered marginally and retail versus institutional mix has been more weighted on retail (67%) implying that clearing fees could be higher q-q. Derivatives Revenue could be slightly lacklustre with the dip in DDAV. The q-q softening in DDAV was largely due to the FTSE China A50 Index Futures (-6.0%) and Nikkei 225 Futures (-26.5%) but mitigated by an increase in the Nifty Index Futures (+16.6%) possibly due to the India elections. For FY14, the key drivers continue to be heavily centred on the Nikkei 225, FTSE China A50, MSCI Taiwan Index and Nifty index contracts.
5955 / 7425
STI rebased
(%) 23.4 4.96 1.69
Valuation Method P/E Mul ti pl e Analyst Benjamin Ong benja mi nongcw@phi l l i p.com.s g +65 65311535
Investment Actions? We revise our FY14 EPS estimates downwards by 3% to S$0.30 and FY15 and FY16 EPS by 6% and 5% respectively. As we rollover our valuations to FY15, we derive a revised TP of S$7.45 and maintain our rating at “Neutral”.
Page | 1 MCI (P) 046/11/2013 Ref. No.: SG2014_0105
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014 Key Financial Summary FYE FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Revenue (SGD mn) 648 715 688 749 818 NPAT, a dj. (SGD mn) 304 351 320 354 406 EPS, a dj. (SGD) 0.28 0.33 0.30 0.33 0.38 P/E (X),a dj. 24.9 24.1 23.2 20.9 18.3 BVPS (SGD) 0.78 0.83 0.85 0.90 0.96 P/B (X) 8.7 9.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 DPS (SGD) 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.30 0.35 Di v. Yi el d (%) 4.0% 3.7% 3.9% 4.3% 5.0% Source: Bl oomberg, PSR es t. *Forwa rd mul ti pl es a nd yi el ds a re ba s ed on current pri ce a nd hi s tori ca l mul ti pl es a nd yi el ds a re ba s ed on hi s tori ca l pri ce
Focus points Weak securities market activities continue to pose a near-term headwind to SGX Fig: Quarterly SDA Value ($Bil) vs Volume (Bil) 2.00
VAL SDAV
6.0
VOL SDAV (RHS)
5.0
1.50
4.0
1.00
3.0
2.0
0.50
1.0 4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
0.00
-
Source: Company, PSR Fig. YTD Price (LHS) vs SDAV MA ($M) (RHS) 7.90
Price
2,200
SDAV MA
Jun 14
May 14
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
Jan 14
600
Jan 14
5.90
Dec 13
1,000
Nov 13
6.40
Oct 13
1,400
Sep 13
6.90
Aug 13
1,800
Jul 13
7.40
Source: Company, PSR
Page | 2
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014
Expect Derivatives business to be key growth driver in the medium to long-term Fig: Equity Index Futures Contracts volume ('000 contracts)
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -
FTSE China A50 Index Futures
MSCI Taiwan Index Futures
Nikkei 225 Index Futures
SGX S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures
Others
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
Source: Company, PSR FTSE China A50 Index Futures
4%
MSCI Taiwan Index Futures
30%
22%
Nikkei 225 Index Futures
25%
19%
SGX S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures Others
Source: Company. PSR Fig. Rev by segment (%) vs Total Operating rev ($’000) Securities
Deri vatives
Mark et data
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
22%
23%
25%
25%
28%
28%
28%
28%
29%
28%
32%
32%
39%
41%
37%
40%
35%
37%
36%
40%
38%
38%
32%
32%
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Source: Company, PSR
Page | 3
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014 Fig 1. Securities Revenue
70 60
50 40
30 20
10 2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
1Q12
Fig 3. Market Data Revenue
-
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 -
Fig 2. Derivatives Revenue
Fig 4. Member services and connectivity
13 12 12
11 11 10 10
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
1Q12
Fig 5. Depository services
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
9
Fig 6. Issuer services
30
25
25
20
20
15
15 10
10
Fig 8. Total revenue Securities
250
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
100 50 3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
Member svc
1Q12
Market data
4Q11
0
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
Deri vatives
Fig 10. Total revenue - Less Securities and Derivatives Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
80
Market data
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
60 40 20 3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
0
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Market data
150
Fig 9. Total revenue - Less Securities 140
Deri vatives
200
4Q11
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
1Q12
Fig 7. Other revenue
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
-
1Q12
5 4Q11
5 -
Page | 4
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014 Fig 11. Operating Revenue and NPAT 250
Fig 12. SDAV ($ M ) vs Price
Ops rev ('000)
2,000
NPAT
200
SDAV
8.00
Price (RHS)
7.75
1,500
7.50
150 1,000
7.25
100
6.50
26 Jun
06 Jun
17 May
27 Apr
07 Apr
Fig 13. 1/2 Yr Price Earnings Ratio (TTM)
6.75
18 Mar
-
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
-
7.00
500
50
Fig 14. 5 yr Price Earnings Ratio (TTM)
23
40 SD + 1
23
22
22.59 22.46
Mea n
22
21.76
21
20.92
35
SD + 1
30
20
SD - 1
Jun 14
Feb 14
Sep 13
May 13
Dec 12
Jul 12
Mar 12
Oct 11
Jun 11
Jan 11
Aug 10
Apr 10
Nov 09
Jul 09
Jul 14
Jun 14
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
10
Feb 14
15
20
Jan 14
21
28.42 25.47 22.52 22.52
Mea n
25
Page | 5
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014 For Financial Summary at the end of report FYE Income Statement (SGD mn) Securi ti es Deri va ti ves Others Operating revenue Opera ti ng expens es Operating profit Other ga i ns /(l os s es ) As s oci a tes & JVs Profit Before Tax Ta xa ti on Net Income, reported Net Income, adj.
FYE Per share data (SGD) EPS, reported EPS, a dj. DPS BVPS
FY12
FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F
248 163 236 648 284 364 (6) (3) 355 (64) 292 304
270 201 245 715 301 414 (10) 4 408 (72) 336 351
FY12 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.78
FY13 0.31 0.33 0.28 0.83
228 208 252 688 314 373 5 3 381 (61) 320 320
244 246 260 749 329 420 5 4 429 (74) 354 354
277 273 267 818 336 482 5 4 491 (85) 406 406
FY14F FY15F FY16F 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.85
0.33 0.33 0.30 0.90
FYE Balance Sheet (SGD mn) PPE Softwa re AFS i nves tments Others Total non-current assets Recei va bl es Ca s h Others Total current assets Total Assets Pa ya bl es Others Total current liabilities Total non-current liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholder Equity
FY12
FYE Valuation Ratios P/E (X), a dj. P/B (X) Di vi dend Yi el d (%) Growth & Margins (%) Growth Securi ti es Revenue Deri va ti ves Revenue Revenue Net Income, a dj. Margins Net profi t ma rgi n Core profi t ma gi n Key Ratios ROE (%) ROA (%) Di vi dend Pa yout ra ti o Cos t to Income
FY12
26 119 66 6 217 779 698 35 1,512 1,729 796 78 874 22 896 833
FY13 24 112 51 28 215 757 763 60 1,580 1,794 783 100 884 22 906 889
FY14F FY15F FY16F 17 113 51 29 210 825 738 60 1,623 1,833 784 115 899 21 921 913
12 116 52 33 214 899 788 60 1,747 1,960 854 115 969 21 991 970
10 110 54 37 212 981 846 60 1,888 2,099 932 115 1,048 21 1,069 1,030
0.38 0.38 0.35 0.96
FYE FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Cashflow Statements (SGD mn) CFO PBT 355 408 381 429 491 Adjus tments 53 56 72 46 65 WC cha nges (9) 6 (68) (4) (4) Ca s h genera ted from ops 399 470 386 471 553 Ta xes pa i d, net (57) (52) (61) (74) (85) Cashflow from ops 342 419 324 397 467 CFI CAPEX, net (51) (28) (50) (50) (64) Others 6 (12) 0 0 0 Cashflow from investments (45) (40) (50) (50) (64) CFF Di vi dends (288) (289) (300) (297) (346) Others (5) (25) 0 0 0 Cashflow from financing (293) (314) (300) (297) (346) Net change in cash 5 65 (25) 50 58 CCE, end 548 613 588 638 696 Source: Compa ny Da ta , PSR es t
24.9 8.7 4.0%
FY13 24.1 9.1 3.7%
FY14F FY15F FY16F 23.2 8.1 3.9%
20.9 7.7 4.3%
18.3 7.2 5.0%
-14.0% 8.5% -15.4% 6.8% 13.8% 15.0% 23.1% 3.4% 18.5% 11.2% -1.9% 10.4% -3.8% 8.9% 9.2% -2.5% 15.5% -8.8% 10.8% 14.6% 44.6% 46.6% 46.2% 47.0% 49.4% 46.5% 48.7% 46.2% 47.0% 49.4% 36.7% 40.8% 35.5% 37.7% 40.6% 16.7% 19.9% 17.6% 18.7% 20.0% 95% 85% 90% 91% 92% 43.8% 42.1% 45.7% 43.9% 41.0%
Page | 6
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014 Ratings History 9.00
Market Price
8.50
Target Price
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
1 2 3 4 5
PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumul a te 2 -5% to +5% Neutra l 3 -5% to -20% Reduce 4 < -20% Sel l 5 Remarks We do not ba s e our recommenda tions entirel y on the a bove qua ntitative return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i tative fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s entiment, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a tion, pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca tal ys ts , a nd s pecul a tive undertones s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda tion
Page | 7
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Page | 8
Singapore Exchange Limited 7 July 2014 Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this publication. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. Please contact Phillip Securities Research at [65 65311240] in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This report is only for the purpose of distribution in Singapore. Contact Information (Singapore Research Team) Management Chan Wai Chee (CEO, Research - Special Opportunities) Joshua Tan (Head, Research - Equities & Macro) Equities | Macro Joshua Tan Soh Lin Sin
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