Climate, and services, in the Caribbean

Roger S. Pulwarty and Adrian Trotman NOAA, CIMH

Caribbean Meteorological Organization Caribbean Community Center for Climate Change University of the West Indies

Characteristics of the Caribbean Most are Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and countries with large low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to flooding; Significant coastal socio-economic development with most major cities, capitals and financial centres located in coastal areas; Mostly agricultural and service based economies with few exceptions; National and inter-related regional economies that lack significant diversity; Complex inter-related environmental hazards (e.g., flooding, drought, wind, earthquake) and highly vulnerable populations & ecosystems; Youthful populations with high expectations; Acutely susceptible to weather climate change and climate variability; All countries trying achieve the UN Millennium Development Goals and sustain or enhance future development.

Climate-related Risks-Challenges Sustainable Development Cumulative annual impact of future climate change on all CARICOM Member and Associate Member States by ca. 2080 est. USD 11.2 billion or 11.3 percent of the projected annual GDP (World Bank, 2009): Most significant contributors to the future annual losses are expected to be direct losses due to climate related disasters: USD 2.6 billion due to wind damage; USD 363.2 million due to flood damage; USD 3.8 million due to drought; USD 447 million due to loss of tourism revenues;

Top 20 countries “vulnerable” ” to natural hazards depending on index Rank

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.

Damage >1%GNP 1970-89 Vanuatu 228 Nic 207 BFaso 191 Domin 119 CookI 92 Chad 84 Boliv 81 St. Lucia 67 Yemen 67 Jam 64 Comor 61 Ethiop 61 El Sal 52 Ban 50 Tong 50 Toke 50 Maurita 41 Mauriti 41 Ant&Bar 38 St.V&Gr 36

Population affected% 1970-96 Vanuatu 727 Ban 539 Tong 532 Ind 510 Bah 491 Maurita 487 Ant&Bar 431 Bots 418 Mozam 361 Gamb 339 Swazi 304 Fiji 296 Domin 262 SaoT&P 245 Chad 242 Sen 233 Gren 228 China 223 SolomI 214 Niger 206

Number of disasters relative to land area 1970-96 Tonga 1.00 St,V&Gr 0.67 Barb 0.46 St.K/N 0.45 Mald 0.44 St.Lucia 0.37 Domin 0.35 Ant&Bar 0.30 Gren 0.29 Mauriti 0.22 Como 0.16 SaoT&P 0.17 CapeV 0.13 Re 0.09 Kiri 0.09 Vanuatu 0.08 Jam 0.06 Fiji 0.06 Gamb 0.05 Data from TnT 0.05 UNDRO 2000

Caribbean Climates-a continuum and an adaptation deficit

warm cold 1880

30 1 DAYS SEASON SHORT-TERM

3 10 YEARS YEARS INTERANNUAL

2000

30 100 YEARS YEARS DECADE-TOCENTURY

Derived from IRI

Jan-Dec. Precipitation

Interannual 77%

Temperature

Trend 34% Interannual 51% Decadal 13%

Decadal Trend

Caribbean Annual Precipitation Change 1901-2100 CMIP5 Fifth Assessment

Caribbean Precipitation 1900-2100 Mar-Apr-May

Sept.-Oct-Nov.

Jun-Jul-Aug

Dec.-Jan-Feb.

IMPACT OF WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES and ACIDIFICATION More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching since the 1980s

9

CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)

<50%

-21 – 50%

-6 – 20%

-1 – 5%

No data

0 – 4%

5 – 19%

20 – 49%

50 – 100%

>100%

Change in Maximum Potential Catch 2051-2060 compared to 2001-2010

Vector-borne transmission rate could increase with temperature Extrinsic incubation period (EIP) shortens at higher temperatures. Dengue type 2 has an EIP of 12 days at 30oC but only 7 days at 3235 oC Decreasing the incubation period by 5 days can lead to a threefold higher transmission rate of dengue (Koopmans et al)

Main Climate Services focus to date: Agriculture in CMO States Fora with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information

Important for understanding farmers needs and how to communicate with them

Means for communication, awareness, education, and feedback. Suggested wet/hurricane and dry season

Began under CAMI- continues in some countries by NMHS

Managing the risks: sea level rise in tropical Small Island Developing States Risk Factors shore erosion saltwater intrusion coastal populations tourism economies

Risk Management/ Adaptation early warning systems maintenance of drainage regional risk pooling relocation

Projected globally: very likely contribution of sea level rise to extreme coastal high water levels (such as storm surges)

Sustaining Climate Monitoring and Risk Management in the Caribbean Linking R(N)COFs (extremes and variability) to Adaptation efforts under CPACC MACC , ACCCCc limate/environmental efforts have been successful….but also had limitations

Achieving and sustaining such sophistication will be challenging without leadership at several levels and significant assistance of regional and international institutions.



Perception of the balance between short-term and long term risks.



The cost of managing networks is assumed to be the replacement cost of the equipment … for many networks, in particular heterogeneous networks, the most expensive component is the recurrent human capacity cost •

Enabling capabilities: •Development of interagency cultures and professionals to coordinate and assess climate impacts •Coordination of regional data collection, analyses, and information sharing mechanisms coordinated into early warning information (to inform preparedness) and decision support (to inform adaptation) systems •Definition of the core set of data characteristics and information technologies needed to maintain the minimum acceptable level of stewardship; •Placing multiple indicators within a statistically consistent triggering framework

• Few data products produced from data collected •

(cost is expensive relative to revenue) … situation is changing (need more cases across sectors and communities) • See Caribbean Agrometeorology Network

(http://63.175.159.26/~monthly/CarAgMet2/products.htm)

Monitoring & Prediction:

Thank you!

Interdisciplinary research, applications, and assessments

Integrated Information Systems: Preparedness and Adaptation

Communication and Outreach:

Engaging Preparedness & & Adaptation Communities:

SideEvent4-SIDS-Pulwarty.pdf

Vanuatu 228 Vanuatu 727 Tonga 1.00. 2. Nic 207 Ban 539 St,V&Gr 0.67. 3. BFaso 191 Tong 532 Barb 0.46. 4. Domin 119 Ind 510 St.K/N 0.45. 5. CookI 92 Bah ...

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