23 November 2017 Accumulate (Upgraded from Neutral) Closing Price(Bt)
RS (RS) / TP’18: 27.50 (+6.29%)
26.25
COMPANY DATA O/S Shares (mn) :
1,010
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
26,516
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
810
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) :
H&B seen as main profit driver in FY18, followed by digital TV
29/7.7
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : Par Value (Bt) :
7.96 1.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
19 April 2017
1. Mr. Surachai Chetchotisak
33.1
2. Mr. Sorat Vanitvarakit 2. BBL
11.4 6.9
PRICE VS SET INDEX 30 20 10 0 Nov‐14
Nov‐15
Nov‐16
RS TB EQUITY
Nov‐17
SETI (rebased)
Source: Bloomberg, PSR KEY FINANCIALS FYE Dec Sales(Btmn)
Update
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
3,729
3,125
3,501
5,301
Net Profit(Btmn)
122
‐102
310
919
EPS (Bt)
0.12
‐0.10
0.31
0.76
P/E (X)
218.8
n.m.
84.7
34.5
BVPS (Bt)
1.71
1.05
1.36
3.76
P/B (X)
15.4
25.0
19.3
7.0
DPS (Bt)
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.40
Dividend Yield (%) ROE (%)
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.5
7.01
‐7.29
20.09
29.38
Source: Company, PSR Est. **Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price VALUATION METHOD DCF (WACC: 9.09%; terminal g: 4.0%) Siam Tiyanont Securities Investment Analyst #17970
H&B key to profit turnaround in 3QFY17: RS swung back to a profit of Bt124mn in 3QFY17 from a loss of Bt61mn in 3QFY16, largely helped by a stellar showing from H&B business. For the quarter, total revenue leapt 46.8% y‐y to Bt996mn, led by a spectacular revenue growth of 466.1% y‐y from H&B business, which was enough to offset revenue declines of 31.1%, 17.7% and 20.1% y‐y in media, music and event businesses respectively. Costs and SG&A expenses inched up 7.4% and 26.2% y‐y due chiefly to mounting costs from H&B business though costs from other businesses were better contained. 4QFY17 profit seen up sharply y‐y but down q‐q due to mourning effect during royal funeral for late monarch: H&B business would continue to be a main profit driver for RS in 4QFY17. In y‐y terms, we reckon that RS will see another quarter of y‐y profit turnaround from a loss of Bt63mn in 4QFY16 on expectations that H&B business, which yields high gross and net profit margins will continue to keep growing at a strong y‐y clip in 4QFY17. On a q‐q basis, 4QFY17 profit is expected to be lower than the level achieved in 3QFY17 as it has been distorted by the mourning effect felt by both media and event businesses during the royal cremation ceremony for the late monarch. For the whole of FY17, we nudge our profit forecast for RS higher to Bt310mn from Bt226mn to reflect the 9MFY17 sales beat at H&B business. The new forecast is based on assumption that FY17 revenue will rise 12% y‐y to Bt3,501mn. Upward revision to FY18 profit forecast, rating upgrade to ‘ACCUMULATE’ with new FY18 target price of Bt27.50/share: Looking ahead into FY18, H&B business should remain the biggest profit booster for RS as it plans to add at least 30 SKUs of its own and partners’ products to its product portfolio from the planned addition of 37 SKUs in FY17, launch new organic and herb line of products which fetch higher prices and increase its focus on outbound and online sales after placing an emphasis on inbound sales in FY17. More clarity on its overseas expansion plan is also expected by year‐end. For ‘Channel 8’ (27 SD), the focus would be on prime‐time programs during 0600‐0900 hrs. and 1800‐2230 hrs and there is a plan to raise ad rates to reflect higher audience ratings, a key factor that could lift ‘Channel 8’ back to the black. We ratchet up our FY18 profit forecast for RS to Bt919mn to reflect the brighter‐than‐expected outlooks for both H&B and digital TV businesses. We also edge up our FY18 target price for RS to Bt27.50/share on a fully‐ diluted basis following the above profit upgrade. As the new target offers some but limited upside from current trading levels, we therefore upgrade RS shares to ‘ACCUMULATE’ from ‘NEUTRAL.’ Note that there is a possibility that RS will be reclassified into the COMM sector.
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 483
Ref. No.: CO2017_1055 This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. PST accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, direct or indirect from the use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions or analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.
1
Corporate Governance - 2016
2
Thai CAC (As of July 31, 2017) Declared
Non-participation
A
AI
AIE
AIRA
AJ
2S
AAV
ABICO
ACAP
ACC
ALUCON
AMATAV
AOT
APCO
AQUA
ADAM
AEC
AEONTS
AF
AFC
ARROW
ASIA
ASK
AU
BCH
AGE
AH
AHC
AIT
AJA
BJCHI
BLAND
BROCK
AKR
BRR
CEN
CGH
CHEWA
CHG
AMATA
AMC
ANAN
APCS
APEX
CHOTI
CHOW
CIG
COL
COM7
APURE
AQ
ARIP
AS
ASAP
BJC
ASEFA
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AMA
ASN
AMARIN
ATP30
CPF FC
FER
FPI
FSMART
AUCT
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BCPG
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GFPT
GGC
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CK
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CNT
MC
MFEC
MIDA
MILL
ML
COMAN
CPH
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NBC
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CSP
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CTW
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ESTAR
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QTC
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SR
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GTB
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STA
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IEC
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THE
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IHL
III
INGRS
INOX
INSURE
TIP
TKN
TLUXE
TMILL
TMT
IRCP
IT
ITD
ITEL
JAS
TNP
TPA
TRUE
TSE
TTI
JCT
JSP
JTS
JWD
KAMART
TU
TVD
TVO
TVT
TWPC
KC
KCM
KDH
KIAT
KKC
U
UPA
UREKA
UWC
VGI
KOOL
KTIS
KWG
LALIN
LDC
VIBHA
VIH
VNT
WAVE
WHA
LH
LOXLEY
LPH
LRH
LST
WICE
WIIK
LTX
M
MACO
MAJOR
MALEE
Certified
MANRIN
MAX
M-CHAI
MCS
MDX
ADVANC
AKP
AMANAH
AP
ASP
MEGA
METCO
MGT
MJD
MK
AYUD
BAFS
BANPU
BAY
BBL
MM
MODERN
MPG
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BCP
BKI
BLA
BROOK
BTS
NCH
NDR
NETBAY
NEW
NEWS
BWG
CENTEL
CFRESH
CIMBT
CM
NFC
NOBLE
NOK
NPK
NPP
CPN
CSL
NYT
OHTL
OISHI
ORI
CNS
CPI
DCC
NVD
NC
DEMCO
DIMET
DRT
DTAC
DTC
OTO
PAE
PDG
PERM
PF
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FE
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PLE
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PPM
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HTC
ICC
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INTUCH
PRIN
PRM
PTL
RAM
RCI
IRPC
IVL
K
KBANK
KCE
RCL
RICH
RICHY
RJH
ROCK
KGI
KKP
KSL
KTB
KTC
RP
RPC
RPH
RS
S
LANNA
LHBANK
LHK
LPN
MBK
S11
SAFARI
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SAM
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MCOT
MFC
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SAWAD
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PG
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SFP
SGF
SHANG
PPS
PRANDA
PREB
PRG
PSH
SIAM
SIMAT
SKN
SKR
SKY
PSL
PT
PTG
PTT
PTTEP
SLP
SMK
SMM
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XO
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YUASA
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3
Industry Group Name Agro & Food Indus try[AGRO] Cons umer Products [CONSUMP]
Fi na nci a l s [FINCIAL]
Indus tri a l s [INDUS]
Property & Cons tructi on[PROPCON]
Res ources [RESOURC] Servi ces [SERVICE]
Technol ogy [TECH]
Sector Name Agri bus i ne s s Food & Bevera ge Fa s hi on Home & Offi ce Products Pers ona l Products & Pha rma ceuti ca l s Ba nki ng Fi na nce & Securi ti es Ins ura nce Automoti ve Indus tri a l Ma teri a l s & Ma chi ne ry Pa cka gi ng Pa pe r & Pri nti ng Ma teri a l s Petrochemi ca l s & Chemi ca l s Steel Cons tructi on Ma teri a l s Cons tructi on Servi ces Property Devel opment Property Fund & REITs Energy & Uti l i ti es Mi ni ng Commerce Medi a & Publ i s hi ng Hea l th Ca re Servi ces Touri s m & Lei s ure Profes s i ona l Servi ces Tra ns porta ti on & Logi s ti cs El ectroni c Compone nts Informa ti on & Communi ca ti on Technol ogy
Sector Index AGRI FOOD FASHION HOME PERSON BANK FIN INSUR AUTO IMM PKG PAPER PETRO STEEL CONMAT CONS PROP PF&REIT ENERG MINE COMM MEDIA HELTH TOURISM PROF TRANS ETRON ICT
PSR Rating System Capital Gain > 15% > 5% ‐ 15% > 0% ‐ 5% 0 <=
Recommendation BUY ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY NEUTRAL SELL
Remarks We do not ba s e our recommenda ti ons enti re l y on the a bove qua nti ta ti ve return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i ta ti ve fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s e nti me nt, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a ti on, pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca ta l ys ts , a nd s pecul a ti ve undertones s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda ti on
4
Research Team Fundamental Sa s i korn Cha roe ns uwa n, CFA, CAIA Da na i Tunya phi s i tcha i , CFA
Analyst Reg No. Ca pi ta l Ma rke t Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #9744 Ca pi ta l Ma rke t Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #2375
Tel 662 635 1700 Ext 480 662 635 1700 Ext 481
Na re e Api s a wa i tta ka n
Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #17971
662 635 1700 Ext 484
Si a m Ti ya nont Adi s orn Mua ngpa rnchon Ha tha i cha noke Moonwong Tha na tpha t Suks ri cha va l i t Pa ttra porn Boonma l e rt Athi d Si ri pha nd Pa cha ra Ye npa i s a rn
Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #17970 Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #18577 Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #64324 Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #84741 Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #95008 As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t
662 635 1700 Ext 483 662 635 1700 Ext 497 662 635 1700 Ext 530 662 635 1700 Ext 532 662 635 1700 Ext 525
Strategy Te e ra da Cha rnyi ngyong Chuti ka rn Sa nti me tvi rul Ra tta wi t Wa tcha ra s ut Kl a na rong Mongkol s i ri cha i kul Ki tti Bua bue ng Ta na pon Ni mi tta non
Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #9501 De ri va ti ve s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #37928 Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #88285 As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t
662 635 1700 Ext 487 662 635 1700 Ext 491 662 635 1700 Ext 498
Technical Sa s i ma Ha tta ki tni korn Kri tti na t Pa ntuwi chi t
Se curi ti e s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #18328 As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t
662 635 1700 Ext 490
Sector Fi na nce &Se curi ti e s , Comme rce Cons tructi on Ma te ri a l s , Prope rty De ve l opme nt Agri bus i ne s s , El e ctroni c Compone nts , Ene rgy, Tra ns porta ti on, Me di a & Publ i s hi ng Ba nki ng, Se curi ti e s & Fi na nce , Automoti ve , He a l th Ca re Ene rgy, Touri s m Food&be ve ra ge , ICT
Database & Production Ma nunpa t Yue nyongwa ta na korn Suti porn Oupka e w Ka ni ttha Sri wong Translation Cha i yot Ingkha s ora ra t Cha l oe mpong Pha ntupo
5
Head Office and Branches Domestics Offices Bangkok Offices H e a d Offi ce Sri n a ka ri n d r Vi p h a va d e e Ya o w a ra j Ba n gka p i 1 Ba n gka p i 2 Hua l umphong Ra n gs i t Si a m D i s co ve ry Ce n tra l W o rl d Si n d h o rn Em Qu a rti e r Am a ri n
849 Vo ra w a t Bl d g., 11s t Fl ., Un i t 1101,1102,1104, 14th Fl ., Un i t 1403, 1404 a n d 15th Fl ., 22n d Fl ., Un i t 2202 Si l o m Rd . Si l o m ,Ba n gra k, Ba n gko k 10500 699 Mo d e rn fo rm To we r, 17th Fl ., Sri n a ka ri n d r Rd ., Su a n Lu a n g, Su a n Lu a n g, Ba n gko k 10250 333 La o Pe n g Ngu a n To w e r 1, 15th Fl ., So i Ch u a yp u a n g, Vi p h a va d i ‐Ra n gs i t Rd ., Jo m p h o n , Ch a tu ch a k, Ba n gko k 10900 308 Ka n ch a n a d h a t Bl d g., 19th Fl ., Ya o w a ra t Rd ., Ja ka wa t, Sa m p a n ta wo n g, Ba n gko k 10100 3522 Th e Ma l l Offi ce To w e r‐Ba n gka p , 8th Fl ., La d Pra o Rd ., Kl o n gch a n , Ba n gka p i , Ba n gko k 10240 3522 Th e Ma l l Offi ce To w e r‐Ba n gka p , 8th Fl ., La d Pra o Rd ., Kl o n gch a n , Ba n gka p i , Ba n gko k 10240 320 Ta n g H u a Pa k Bl d g., 4th Fl ., Ra ma 4 Rd ., Ma h a p ru th a ra m , Ba n gra k, Ba n gko k 10500 94 Fu tu re Pa rk Ra n gs i t, G Fl ., Ro o m #PLZ.G.SHP065A, Pa h o l yo th i n Rd ., Pra ch a th i p a t, Th u n ya b u ri , Pa th u m th a n i 12130 989 Si a m To w e r Bu i l d i n g, 11th Fl ., Un i t A2, Ra m a I Rd ., Pa th u m wa n , Pa th u m wa n , Ba n gko k 10330 999/9 Th e Offi ce s a t Ce n tra l W o rl d , 17 FL. Un i t ML 1707, Ra m a I Rd , Pa th u m wa n , Pa th u m w a n , Ba n gko k 10330 130‐132 Si n d h o rn To w e r 3 Bu i l d i n g, 19 Fl o o r, W i re l e s s Rd ., Lu m p i n i , Pa th u m w a n , Ba n gko k 10330 689 Bh i ra j To w e r a t Em Qu a rti e r, 39th fl o o r, Un i t 3909‐10, Su kh u m vi t Rd ., Kl o n gto n Nu e a , Va d h a n a , Ba n gko k 10110 496‐502 Am a ri n To w e r, 8 Fl o o r, Un i t 6‐7 Pl o e n ch i t Rd ., Lu m p h i n i , Pa th u m w a n , Ba n gko k 10330
Provincial Offices Ch i a n gm a i H a d Ya i H a d Ya i ‐ Pe tka s e a m Kh o n Ka e n Ph i ts a n u l o k Ch u m p o rn Le a m ch a b a n g I n ve s to r Ce n te r Kh o n Ka e n
111/51 Mo o 2 Ma h i d o l Rd ., No n g H o i , Mu a n g Ch i a n g Ma i , Ch i a n g Ma i 50000 55 So u th l a n d Ru b b e r Bl d g., 4th Fl ., Ra tyi n d e e Rd ., H a d Ya i , Ha d Ya i , So n gkl a 90110 607 Re d a r Gro u p Bl d g., 3rd Fl ., Un i t 3D , Pe tka s e a m Rd ., Ha d Ya i , H a d Ya i , So n gkl a 90110 359/2 Ko w Yo o H a h Bl d g., 4th Fl ., Mi tta p a p Rd ., Na i m u a n g, Mu a n g Kh o n Ka e n , Kh o n Ka e n 40000 59/15 Th a i Si va ra t Bl d g., 2n d Fl ., Ba ro m tri l o ka n a d 2 Rd ., Na i m u a n g, Mu a n g Pi ts a n u l o k, Ph i ts a n u l o k 65000 25/45 Kro m Lu a n g Ch u m p o rn Rd ., Ta ta p a o , Mu a n g Ch u m p o rn , Ch u m p o rn 86000 53/112, 53/114 Mo o 9, Tu n gs u kl a , Sri ra ch a , Ch o n b u ri 20230 252 Mo o 11, Mu a n g Ka o , Mu a n g Kh o n Ka e n , Kh o n Ka e n 40000
Overseas Offices SI NGAPORE H ONG KONG MALAYSI A JAPAN I ND ONESI A CH I NA FRANCE UNI TED KI NGD OM UNI TED STATES AUSTRALI A SRI LANKA TURKEY I ND I A D UBAI CAMBOD I A
Ph i l l i p Se cu ri ti e s Pte Ltd Ra ffl e s Ci ty To we r Te l : (65) 6533 6001 w ww .p o e m s .co m .s g Ph i l l i p Se cu ri ti e s (H K) Ltd 11/F Un i te d Ce n tre 95 Qu e e n s wa y, Te l (852) 22776600 w ww.p h i l l i p .co m .h k Ph i l l i p Ca p i ta l Ma n a ge m e n t Sd n Bh d , Bl o ck B Le ve l 3 Me ga n Ave n u e Te l (603) 21628841 w ww .p o e m s .co m .m y Ph i l l i p Se cu ri ti e s Ja p a n , Ltd 4‐2 Ni h o n b a s h i Ka b u to ‐ch o , Ch u o ‐ku , To kyo Te l (81‐3) 36662101 PT Ph i l l i p Se cu ri ti e s I n d o n e s i a ANZ To we r Le ve l 23B, Te l (62‐21) 57900800 ww w.p h i l l i p .co .i d Ph i l l i p Fi n a n ci a l Ad vi s o ry (Sh a n gh a i ) Co . Ltd Oce a n To we r Un i t 2318 Te l (86‐21) 51699200 w ww.p h i l l i p .co m .cn Ki n g & Sh a xs o n Ca p i ta l Li m i te d 3rd Fl r, 35 Ru e d e l a Bi e n fa i s a n ce Te l (33‐1) 45633100 ww w.ki n ga n d s h a xs o n .co m Ki n g & Sh a xs o n Ca p i ta l Li m i te d 6th Fl r, Ca n d l e w i ck Ho u s e , Te l (44‐20) 7426 5950 w ww .ki n ga n d s h a xs o n .co m Ph i l l i p Fu tu re s I n c Th e Ch i ca go Bo a rd o f Tra d e Bu i l d i n g Te l +1.312.356.9000 Ph i l l i p Ca p i ta l Au s tra l i a Le ve l 37, Co l l i n s Stre e t, Me l b o u rn e , Te l (613) 96298380 Fww w.p h i l l i p ca p i ta l .co m .a u As h a Ph i l l i p Se cu ri ti e s Ltd Le ve l 4, Mi l l e n n i u m H o u s e , Te l : (+94) 11 2429 100 a p s l @a s h a p h i l l i p .n e t H a k Me n ku l Ki ym e tl e r A.Ş D r.Ce m i l Be n gü Ca d . Te l : (+90) (212) 296 84 84 (p b x) a km e n ku l @h a km e n ku l .co m .tr Ph i l l i p Ca p i ta l (I n d i a ) Pri va te Li m i te d No . 1, C‐ Bl o ck, 2n d Fl o o r,Mo d e rn Ce n te r , Ja co b Ci rcl e , K. K. Ma rg, Ma h a l a xm i Mu m b a i 400011 Te l : (9122) 2300 2999 We b s i te : w ww .p h i l l i p ca p i ta l .i n Ph i l l i p Ca p i ta l (I n d i a ) Pvt Ltd .601, W h i te Cro wn Bu i l d i n g D u b a i UAE. Ma h a l a xm i Mu m b a i 400011 Te l : (9122) 2300 2999 We b s i te : w ww .p h i l l i p ca p i ta l .i n Bu i l d i n g No 71, St 163, Sa n gka t To u l Sva y Pre y I , Kh a n Ch a m ka rm o rn , Ph n o m Pe n h , Ki n gd o m o f Ca m b o d i a Te l : (855) 23 217 942 W e b s i te : www .kre d i t.co m .kh
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