Three Generations of Environment and Security Research Author(s): Carsten F. Rønnfeldt Source: Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 34, No. 4 (Nov., 1997), pp. 473-482 Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd. Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/424868 . Accessed: 09/05/2011 08:21 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at . http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=sageltd. . Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

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? Journalof Peace Research,vol. 34, no. 4, 1997, ISSN: 0022-3433, pp. 473-482

Review Essay:

Three Generationsof Environmentand Security Research* CARSTENF. R0NNFELDT FridtjofNansen Institute& Norwegian Instituteof InternationalAffairs The claim that environmentalfactors should be integratedinto the concept of securitywas firstmade in the early 1980s (for example by RichardUllman). By the early 1990s, a 'second generation'approachappeared,aiming at identifyingthe causal pathwaysfrom environmentalscarcityto conflict by means of empiricalcase studies (for example by Thomas Homer-Dixonand the TorontoGroup).This essay reviews the issues raised in the literature of these two approaches- the initial debate and the empirical studies - and goes on to examine a numberof conceptual critiques. The emerging 'third generation'draws attentionto improvedmethodology, including the comparative study of cooperation as well as conflict as a response to environmentalscarcity, which in turn focuses attentionon the natureof regimes and of the role of the 'state-in-society'.

1. TheInterfacebetweenEnvironmentand SecurityResearch The purposeof this essay is to give a generalreview of the literatureon the interface between environmentand security.To this end, scholarly work on environment and security is divided into three generationsalong the lines proposed by Levy (1995b).1 While recognizing the importance of antecedents, a first generationwas mobilized in the early 1980s, based on the claim that environmental factors ought to be integratedinto the concept of security.This was followed by a more empirically founded second generation in the early 1990s, based on case studies aimed at identifyingthe causal pathway from environmentalscarcity to conflict. A third generationis now emerging based primarilyon a methodological critique of the second generation. The three generationsare summarizedin Table I. *This article is based on research conducted while the authorwas attachedto the FridtjofNansen Institute(FNI), Oslo, as part of a joint project with the InternationalPeace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), and financed by the Norwegian ResearchCouncil (NFR). A more extended version is published in a joint PRIO/FNI report (Smith & 0streng, 1997). 1 am gratefulto Val Percival,the other rapporteur,as well as members of the reference group to the project, for comments on drafts of my reports. I am also grateful to Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Tanja Ellingsen, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Malvern Lumsden for comments on earlier drafts of this essay. Obviously, none of them hold any responsibilityfor the views or interpretationsoffered in this review essay.

The presentationof the generationsdoes not pretendto encompass all relevantaspects of research undertakenin the field of environment and security. It is thereforeemphasizedthat the most useful findings of the first and second generationsarenot given full justice in this brief review.2 The categorization of research along the lines of generations is ratheran attemptto provide a general understandingof certainfundamentaldifferences in academicapproachesto the field. This is in orderto facilitatethe identification of avenues for fiutureresearch. 2. TheFirst Generation The firstgenerationof environmentand security research refers to an ongoing interdisciplinary debate in the academicand political community on whether and how environmental issues should be incorporatedinto security concerns. Proponents emphasize that an underestimated relationship exists between environmental issues and security,while sceptics eitherbluntly rejectsuch a relationshipor at least downplayits significance.

A numberof scholarshave played an important role in establishing the link between environmentand security (for example Osborn, 1953; Brown, 1977; and Galtung, 1982). However, a benchmarkfor the firstgenerationis generally regardedto be Ullman's criticismof what he considered too narrow an understandingof national security. According to him, national

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Table I, The Three GenerationsSummarized Starting

Firstgeneration Early 1980s

Second generation Early 1990s

Thirdgeneration Mid-1990s

Scholarlyapproach

Conceptualdebate

Process tracing

Field of analysis

Environmentand security

Level of analysis

Global/StatelIndividual

Renewableresources and conflict State/Sub-state

A broadrangeof social science methodologies Environmentand security Global/Regional/State/ Sub-state

security is defined as protection from 'military threatsarising from beyond the bordersof one's own country'. Proposinga broaderdefinitionof the concept, Ullman arguesthat: ... a threatto national security is an action or sequence of events that (1) threatensdrastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degradethe quality of life for the inhabitantsof a state, or (2) threatenssignificantlyto narrow the range of policy choices available to the governmentsof a state or to private, non-governmental entities (persons, group, corporations)within the state. (Ullman, 1983, p. 133)

Referring to environmental aspects, Porter (1996, p. 36) finds that the objective of national security 'should be to minimize negative impacts on the welfare of US citizens from forces originating in part beyond our own borders, from whatever source'. In other words, this would include protection of human beings against, for instance, environmentalproblems and their consequences. This broad security concept with multiple dimensions - military, political, economic, societal, environmentaland at various levels - system, state, individuals - has been supported by a range of scholars (Brock, 1991; Gleick, 1993; Lodgaard et al., 1992; Mathews, 1989; Myers, 1989; Renner, 1989, 1996; Ullman, 1983). More importantly, the enlargedunderstandingof security has been adopted by many internationalfigures and organizations (Boutros-Ghali, 1992, p. 5; World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987, p. 290; NATO, 1991). Dabelko summarizes the normative foundation of the first generation:

currentlyfailing to redressthese threats.All institutions, according to the central tenets to the idea, must better addressthese threats.The alternativeif these threatsare not betteraddressedwill likely be economic, social and ecosystem health and welfare decreases. (Dabelko, 1996, p. 2)

Critics of the broad security concept raise a number of points in defence of the traditional definition of security. First, they fear that a broad security concept risks creating a conceptual muddle - a de-definition ratherthan a redefinition.Second, they hold thatthe conceptual debates offer few new theoreticaland empirical insights into how environmentand securitymay interact.As a consequence of this lack of empirical ground, a third point of criticism is raised, namely, that proponentsof the broader security concept sometimes twist their analysis to satisfy particular rhetorical and political agendas. Fourth,and of more practicalimportance, militarizing environmental matters may prescribe the wrong instruments for dealing with the potentialproblems(Buzan et al., 1995; Deudney, 1990; Gleditsch, 1996; Dokken & Graeger, 1995; Homer-Dixon, 1996a; Levy, 1995a;W
Environmentalsecurity has emerged as a transnational idea, the core of which holds that environmentaldegradation and depletion, largely human-induced,pose fundamentalthreatsto the physical security of individuals, 3. The Second Generation groups, societies, states, naturalecosystems and the in- In the early 1990s a second generation on enternationalsystem. Securityinstitutionsin particularare vironment and security responded to the criti-

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cism of the first generation - in particularthe lack of empirical evidence. This work is presented by referenceto the work of the Projecton Environment, Population and Security at the University of Toronto under the direction of Thomas Homer-Dixon.3 In this essay the researchteam is referredto by its increasingly appliedname:the TorontoGroup.Theirwork is highlightedhere because of the great frequency by which this group is cited in the literatureon this topic.4 Referringto scholarship,which I have categorized as belonging to the first generation,

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Figure 1. The TorontoGroups'Key Model Environmental scarcity

.

SociaI effects

_^ *

F ^^ ConflictI

Based in particularon Homer-Dixon(1991, 1994

way from environmental scarcity to conflict. The criterion for selecting cases is that both variables of interest appear in the case to be scrutinized. The independent variable is then consideredto be environmentalscarcity,the dependentvariableto be violent conflict. The task for scholars is to identify other relevantfactors and determinehow they are causally linked. As Homer-Dixon (1991, p. 83) charges that: ... much of the recent writingon the links between Homer-Dixonstates: environmentalchange and conflict is anecdotal'. ... cases are selected explicitly on both the independent and the dependentvariables.The aim is to determineif The overall aim of the Toronto Groupis to dethe independent and dependent variables are causally viate from the conceptual polemic and to base linked and, if they are, to induce from a close study of research on firm empirical ground. Narrowing many such cases the common patternsof causality and the scope of research, they aim to provide an the key intermediatevariables that characterizethese understanding of what is and what can be links. (Homer-Dixon, 1995, p. 7) known about the links between renewable resource scarcities and violent conflict. Some In a number of models, the Toronto Group ilprominent dimensions of the Toronto Group's lustratesthe complex causal relations between the various variables.At an overall level of abresearchagenda are: straction,however, Homer-Dixon(1991, 1994) A. Focus on scarcity of cropland,forest, fish provides a 'key' to understandingthe underlystocks and water ratherthan on a broader ing logic of all these models. The key model range of environmentalfactors such as cli- startswith 'environmentalscarcity' as the indemate change, ozone depletion, etc. (Homer- pendent variable, which causes social effects, Dixon, 1994, 1996b). which again causes conflict, that is, the depenB. Focus on acute national and international dent variable (see Fig. I).6 violentconflictinsteadof having to deal with Based on this methodologicalframework,the the vast and disputed concept of security Toronto Group has undertaken a series of (Homer-Dixon, 1991, p. 77). twelve case studies of specific states: C. Use process tracing (see below) as an ana- Bangladesh-India, Chiapas (Mexico), Gaza, lytical approachto map the causal path from Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal-Mauritania, and environmentalscarcity to conflict (Homer- South Africa. They have also, although in less Dixon, 1991, pp. 85-98, 104-14; 1995). detail, appliedtheiranalyticalapproachon cases D. Select cases in the developing world, as such as El Salvador-Honduras,Haiti, Peru, the these are regardedas moreproneto environ- Philippines, and the West Bank. In addition, mentally induced conflicts (Homer-Dixon, they have publishedthematic reportson urban1991, pp. 78, 88).5 ization and violence, researchmethodology and social adaptation.Pooling from this research, The Toronto Group departs from two fundathe group presents the quintessence of their mental questions: (1) Does environmental work in ten general findings (Homer-Dixon & scarcity contribute to violence in developing countries? (2) If so, how does it contribute? Percival, 1996, pp. 6-10): (Homer-Dixon& Percival, 1996, p. 12). 1. 'Under certain circumstances, scarcities of renewable Process tracing is an analytical approachthat aims at mappingrelevantindependent,intervening and dependentvariableson the causal path-

resources, such as cropland,forests, and water produce conflict and instability. However, the role of this 'environmentalscarcity' is often obscure. Environmental scarcity acts mainly by generating social effects, such

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as poverty and migrations,that analysts often interpret as conflict's immediatecauses. 2. 'Environmentalscarcity is caused by the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased consumptionof these resources,and/ortheirinequitable distribution.Evidence from cases suggests that these threesources of scarcityoften interactand reinforceone another.' 3. 'Environmental scarcity often encourages powerful groupsto capturevaluableenvironmentalresourcesand encourages marginalgroups to migrate to ecologically sensitive areas. These two processes in turn reinforce environmentalscarcity and raise the potentialfor social instability.' 4. 'Societies can adapt to renewable resource scarcity either by using their indigenous environmental resources more efficiently or by decouplingfromtheirdependenceon these resources.In eithercase, the capacity to adaptdepends upon the level of social and technical ingenuityavailable in the society.' 5. 'If social and economic adaptationis unsuccessful, environmentalscarcitycontributesto impoverishmentand migrations.' 6. 'In the absence of adaptation,environmentalscarcity weakens states.' 7. 'In the absence of adaptation,environmentalscarcity sharpensdistinction among groups and enhances their opportunitiesto participatein violent collection action.' 8. 'Environmentalscarcity can contribute to population movements, economic decline, and weakened states, which in turn can cause ethnic conflicts, insurgencies, and coups d'etat.' 9. 'Environmentalscarcity rarely contributes directly to interstateconflict.' 10. 'Conflicts generated in part by environmentalscarcity can have significantindirecteffects on the international community.'

4. Towardsa ThirdGeneration Since the mid-1990s a broad range of researchers have criticized the approach of the TorontoGroupto environmentand security research. As this may be the embryo for a third generation,this critiqueis presentedby addressing each of the above listed dimensions of the second generation'sresearchagenda. Before presentingthis criticism,however, the value of the insights gained by the comprehensive work undertakenby the Toronto Group is emphasized.The work has contributedto an improved empiricalbasis for taking a stand in the conceptual debate of the first generation.Their work has made it more difficult for sceptics to deny that a link exists between environmental scarcityand security.At the same time, it should encourageproponentsto accept that scarcity of renewable resources is never the sole cause of conflict, but that it can contributeto these dis-

ruptionswhen it interactswith economic, political and social factors. In addition, the work of the Toronto Group has contributedto a higher degree of environmental awareness in policy communities. 4.1 Gettingto the Big Picture The first generationelaboratedon security implications of a broad scope of environmental change. The second generation explicitly narrowed the field of analysis down to the linkage between violent conflict and scarcity of renewable resources.That is, itfocused on scarcity of cropland,forest, fish stocks and water as the independentvariables(see dimensionA in section 3). However, in orderto get the 'big picture' of dynamicsleading to conflict,there is an increasing interestamong scholarsto broadenthe field of analysis by expandingthe scope of independent variables.These include not only a broader scope of environmentalbut also other material and socio-political variables (Gleditsch, 1996; Levy, 1995b, p. 46 and 1996, p. 59; Smith, 1994). By doing so, they link environmentand security research to the more general field of peace researchand conflict studies. An improved understandingof the relative importanceof environmentalscarcity in a more general context is also of interestto the policy community.As resourcesfor conflictprevention generally are difficult to mobilize, policymakersare likely to be interestedin knowing in which areas resources are most efficiently invested. If it turns out, for example, that certain types of environmentalfactors - such as water scarcity - correlate more often with conflict than others;or that, for example, weak governmental institutions correlate more often with conflict than environmentalscarcity,this would have differentimplicationsfor the cost-effective use of internationalassistance. Quantitativestudies undertakenby Hauge & Ellingsen (1996) have confirmed many of the hypothesesproposedby the TorontoGroup;for example, the correlation between soil erosion and conflict. However, as a case in point to the argumentmade above, they find that the impact of environmentalissues on civil wars is much less significant than economic issues. Their findings suggest that the likelihood of civil war increases with a low gross nationalproductper capita (Hauge & Ellingsen, 1996, p. 20; also

Three Generationsof Environmentand SecurityResearch

Smith, 1997, p. 97). Moreover,they find thatthe featuresof the political system are far more important than environmental stress as a causal pathway to conflict (also Ellingsen, 1997; Goldstone, 1996a, p. 68). In addition,whereasthe Torontogroup commencedits analysiswith 'environmentalscarcity' as the independentvariable, a number of researchersargue that 'environmentalscarcity' is oftencausedby poverty(Goodland,1994;Dunlap, 1994; Laugen & Lunde, 1996). Homer-Dixon (1996a, p. 51, 1996b,p. 2) also emphasizesthe independentrole of povertyin the linkagebetween environmentand conflict,which he encapsulates in terms such as 'resourcecapture', 'ecological marginalization'and 'structuralscarcity'. Getting the 'big picture' also implies that other levels of analysis are addressed. The TorontoGroupfocuses at the sub-stateand state level (see dimension D in section 3). This narrow focus has some problematicconsequences. First, it diverts attentionfrom the consequences of the internationaleconomy for environmental scarcity, as much as for civil strife. It tends to ignore the impactof the global economy and internationalorganizationsin the domestic affairs of states (see for example Reed, 1996). Second, environmentalscarcity is often a transnational problem. Adequate solutions to these common problemsare often premisedon co-ordinatedregional, if not internationalaction. Moreover, Levy (1995/96, p. 196) argues that an analysis of state behaviour should include the regional considerations governments have to take into accountwhen they make theirpolitical priorities in the domestic arena.For instance,a state faced with militarytension partlycaused by the political situation in neighbouringcountries is likely to place strategiesfor preventingenvironmental degradationlow on the agenda. 4.2 Include Cases of Cooperation

While the first generation of environmentand security research elaboratedon the concept of security the second generation narrowed the scope of the dependentvariableforfocusing on acute national and international violent conflict

(dimension B in section 3). The third generation, however, wants to broaden the scope of dependentvariablesto include cases of cooperation, thereby reorienting research towards more general security concerns.

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The second generationhas been criticized for the lack of comparativeevidence. The Toronto Groupselected cases on the independentas well as the dependentvariableand then investigated how environmental factors may have contributed to the conflict. The problem is that choosing cases in this way offers no opportunity to falsify their hypotheses. Null cases, that is, cases of non-conflict, should be included in the research to evaluate the influence of the independent variables (Levy, 1995b, p. 45). As Gleditsch puts it: When one only examines cases of conflict, one is likely to find confirmation of whatever one is looking for, unless there are very clearly specified criteria for the threshold level of the independent variable which is supposed to lead to violence. No society is completely free of environmentaldegradation,nor is any society completely free of ethnic fragmentation,or religious differences, or economic inequalities, or problems of governance. In examining a set of armed conflicts, one may variously conclude that they are all environmental conflicts, ethnic conflicts, clashes of civilisations, or productsof bad governments.(Gleditsch, 1996, p. 6)

Evidence does exist to falsify a hypothesis claiming a simple relationshipbetween environmental scarcity and conflict. For example, Dokken (1997) characterizes environmental problems as both sharedhazardsand sharedresources. Based on a study of regional integration in West Africa, she shows how cooperative efforts in some cases have broken the causal links between the main social effects of environmentalchange and various types of conflict. Dokken holds that the actors' perception of a threatof an 'environmentalconflict' is a main motive force in the process of regional integration.Deudney (1990) also arguesthatthe cost of engaging in armedconflicts, the benefits of increasing economic interdependence and trade, along with technological innovations to substitutescarce resourcestend to minimize the risk of conflict and to promotecooperation. A numberof scholarsconclude that it is high time to scrutinize the factors that prevent conflict from occurring,even when environmental scarcity is present (for example, Levy, 1995b; Rogers, 1997). This is not just for the sake of analytical precision, but also for political reasons.Lipschutz(1997) warnsagainstthe 'environmentaldeterminism'found in much of the environmentand securityresearch.Referringto

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the Toronto Group, the World Bank, and Westing (1986), he addressesthe epistemological frameworkof this literatureand claims that there is a continuitybetween classical geopolitics and the contemporarynotion of 'scarcity'. The problem with much 'environmentaldeterminism' is that it 'naturalizes' the process by which someone seeks control over someone else. He warns against the risk that the idea of 'ecological interdependence' may serve as a means to interferein the affairs of others. Whereas Lipschutzaddresses the issue at an internationallevel, the model also poses a risk of suggesting 'environmentaldeterminism'at the dyadic and nationallevel. The effort to illustrate research strategies in models should be welcomed; however, it may also pose a risk in particularif the TorontoGroup'skey model is used for prediction.For example, the model could be misused to arguethatthe GreatAnatoliaproject on the EuphratesRiver will necessarily lead to conflict between Turkey and Syria. When, and if, the dam is finalized it is expected to reduce the averageannualflow of water in the river by more than 50%. This will create problems for downstream Syria, which already experiences problemsof freshwateravailability.But one may not deduce from the model that because of scarcityof a crucialresourceand its consequent social effects, Syria is likely to engage in an interstatewar to secure sufficientsupplies.As empirical evidence for this argumentwill only be availablefor researchwithin five to ten years,the task for research should rather be to provide knowledge about how water may be used as a source of cooperation. 4.3 Improve the Analytical Precision

The thirddimensionof the secondgenerationwas to use process tracing as the analyticalapproach to map the causal pathway from scarcity of renewableresourcesto conflict (dimensionC, section 3). The work of the TorontoGrouphas been criticized for providing overly complex models which offer only very general conclusions. Its work incorporatesa rangeof independentand interveningvariables,but does not indicatethe explanatorypower of the variousfactors,including environmentalscarcity,on the causalpathwayto conflict (Gleditsch, 1996; Goldstone, 1996a, p. 70; Dessler, 1994, p. 96; Hauge & Ellingsen, 1996, p. 8; Levy, 1996, p. 59).

While the key model was criticizedabove for having too narrowa focus, which excluded from the analysis other independentvariablesas well as null cases, the models which the Toronto Group develops from this key model are very complex. The complexity is present already in an early outline of the research approach. Elaboratingonly on the first causal linkage in the key model - 'environmentalscarcity' and 'social effects' - Homer-Dixon identifies five sub-independentvariables, two sub-dependent variablesand ten interveningvariables(HomerDixon, 1991, p. 96). The consequences of such a researchstrategyare apparentin a study on the rebellionin Chiapasin 1994. Howard& HomerDixon (1995, p. 23) list seven independent variables and nine intervening variables. Moreover,some of them - such as 'historically rooted socio-economic context' - are extremely broad in scope and difficult to operationalizein more traditionalapproachesof social science, such as quantitativeanalysis. This complicates scholarly efforts to test at a more general level the validity and significance of the causal path suggested by these models. The consequencesof a lack of analyticalprecision are apparentwhen the Toronto Group's case study on Bangladeshand Indiais compared to Swain's researchon the same case. They emphasize two different environmentalcauses to the same social phenomenon,althoughwithout neglecting the importanceof other causes. The TorontoGroupconcludes that land scarcity and flooding have encouragedten million Bengali to migrateillegally to India.In Assam these immigrants have gained economic power and changed the local power structures.Their presence has alteredland distribution,economic and political power and has been a source of tension between religious and ethnic groups. In the early 1980s approximately4,500 Muslims were killed as a result of this conflict (Homer-Dixon & Percival, 1996, pp. 13-16). However, Swain (1996) comes to different conclusions when he emphasizes reduced freshwater availability as the primary cause of the migration, which eventually led to civil strife. As a consequenceof the second generation's researchstrategy,Levy (1995/96, p. 196)explains that, 'We are left with claims thatsometimesenvironmentalscarcity produces violent conflicts but not knowingwhatconditionsmattermost'.

ThreeGenerationsof Environmentand SecurityResearch

4.4 Draw from the Analytical Capital of Social Science

There has been a tendency in the second generation to disregardthe value of well-established social science methodologies in the study of 'highly interactive and complex ecologicalpolitical systems' (Homer-Dixon, 1995, p. 1). Hence, critical voices call for more analytical precision. As most social phenomena are 'highly interactiveand complex', there is no obvious reason why some of the methodological approaches from social science should not be applicable also in environmentand security research. Researchers are increasingly interested in 'getting the big picture' as well as 'including cases of cooperation' in efforts to understand how policy-makers may most efficiently use their resources to prevent conflict. For illustrative purposes, without excluding the relevance of otheranalyticalapproaches,threewell-established approachesare discussed briefly. First, it now seems fruitful to abandon the self-imposed limitationto select cases in the developing world (dimension D, section 3). The thirdgenerationshould apply differenttheoretical and methodological approachesat different levels of analysis. For example, quantitative analysis, regime theory and a state-in-society approachcould be applied (in a complementary ratherthan a competitive fashion) at a macro, meso and micro level, respectively. At the macro level - that is, the global level - quanti-

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a number of crucial independent variables such as environmentalchange and poverty and the dependentvariables - conflict and cooperation.Withoutsuggesting any deterministic causalitybetween the variables,the quantitative method does explain whether or not the likelihood of, for example, conflict increaseswith environmentalchange. It would provide empirical evidence of the general validity of HomerDixon's claim that only rarely do people fight directly over resources,but 'often the (environmental) scarcities indirectly contributeto conflict by producing various forms of economic and institutional dislocation' (Homer-Dixon, 1996a, p. 53). Moreover, the relative importance of a range of variableson the causal pathway to conflict can be identified. Regime theory offers an analytical framework to understandthe conditions underwhich states faced with common problems choose out of self-interest to establish institutionsto manage - and ideally solve these in a cooperative manner (Young, 1994; Stokke et al., 1996). Second, regime theory offers a methodology by which to identify the existence and characterof norms and rules at the internationallevel and how they impact on the outcome of political processes. And, finally, regime theory allows an evaluationof institutionaleffectiveness in overcoming problems they are mandated to deal with. It pinpointsweaknesses in regime robustness and aims at forecasting the prospects for futurecooperation. The state-in-society approach is a recently launched analytical frameworkthat focuses on governance in developing countries (Bratton, 1994; Chazanet al., 1992; Degnbol, 1996). It is a critiqueof theoreticalapproaches,which a priori prescribea dominatingrole to either state or society in nationalpoliticalprocesses. The statein-society approachoffers an analytical framework by which to explore social dynamics leading to conflict and/or cooperation in a nationaland sub-nationalcontext. In addition,it opens for a comprehensive approach to a broaderscope of conditions to conflict and cooperation.

tative analysis could give a statisticalindication of the relative importanceof various factorsas a cause of conflict. At a regional level of analysis, regime theory could scrutinize the mediatory processes through which states may cooperate to solve their common problems of environmental scarcity.And at the micro level - that is, state and sub-state level - the state-in-society approach could provide an understandingof social dynamics in a potentially conflictual relationship between state and society. The approaches are presentedbelow, in this order. Quantitativeapproachescan provide the big picture. It may improve the empirical basis for taking a stand in the unsettled debate between proponents and sceptics regarding the linkage between environment and security (see for example Hauge & Ellingsen, 1996). 5. Summing up Quantitativeanalysis at a global level could in- Table I summarizes the basic differences bedicate a possible statistical correlationbetween tween the three generationson environmentand

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security research. It suggests that a third generation is emerging in an effort to place environment and security research on firmer methodological ground and that it is likely to place the topic of concern in a broadercontext, for example, by relating it to the more general field of peace research.Just as the second generation has focused on linkages between environmental scarcity and conflict, it is timely that a new generationof researchimproves our understandingof how armed conflict may be prevented.

Since the latter term is maintainedin the work of the Toronto Group undertakensince then, it is also applied here.

REFERENCES

Bergesen, Helge Ole & Georg Parmann,eds, 1996. Green Global Yearbook.Oxford:Oxford UniversityPress. Boutros-Ghali, Boutros, 1992. An Agenda Jfor Peace. Preventive Diplonmacyl, Peacemaking and Peacekeeping. UN documents A747/277 and S/24111. Geneva: United Nations. Bratton, Michael, 1994. 'Peasant-stateRelations in Postcolonial Africa: Patterns of Engagement and Disengagement', pp. 231-254 in Joel S. Migdal, Atul Kohli & Vivienne Shue, State Power and Social Forces Donminationand Transformationin the Third World. NOTES Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. 1. Levy (1995b) uses the term 'wave', ratherthan 'gener- Brock, Lothar, 1991. 'Peace through Parks: The ation'. I prefer the notion generation, because 'wave' Environmenton the Peace ResearchAgenda', Journal of may give an idea thatthe firstends where the second bePeace Research, vol. 28, no. 4, November,pp. 407-423. gins. While there is a chronological order in the term Brown, Lester, 1977. Redefining National Security. generation, it does not refer to separate epochs of enWorldwatchPaper,no. 14. Washington,DC. vironmentand security research.Ratherthe generations Buzan, Barry; Ole Wtever & Jaap de Wilde, 1995. should be regardedas paralleltracks. 'Environmental, Economic and Societal Security'. 2. For furtherinformationon research in the first and secWorking Papers, no. 10. Copenhagen:Centre for Peace ond generations,see earlier literaturesurveys conducted and Conflict Research. by Dabelko & Dabelko (1995), Dokken & Grneger Chazan, Naomi; Robert Mortimer, John Ravenhill & (1995), Grger (1996), Greger & Smith (1994), Levy Donald Rothchild, 1992. Politics and Society in (1995b) and Matthew(1996). ContemporaryAfrica. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. 3. For a thorough summary of the work of the Toronto Dabelko, Geoffrey D., 1996. 'Ideas and the Evolution of Group, see Homer-Dixon& Percival (1996). EnvironmentalSecurityConceptions'.Paperpresentedto 4. Much importantwork in the second generationhas also the 37th Annual Convention of the InternationalStudies been done by: (I) The Environmental Conflict Association, San Diego, CA., 16-20 April. Managementand Sustainable Development(ECOMAN) Dabelko, Geoffrey D. & David D. Dabelko, 1995. - known before 1996 as the Environmentand Conflicts 'Environmental Security: Issues of Conflict and Project (ENCOP) - a cooperative venture between the Redefinition', Environmental Change and Security Center for Security Studies and Conflict Researchat the Project Report, Issue 1, pp. 3-13. Swiss Federal Instituteof Technology in Zurich, under Degnbol, Tove, 1996. 'The Interactive Approach to the the direction of Gunther Bachler, and the Swiss Peace Study of State and Society Relations', pp. 327-352 in Foundation in Bern under the direction of Kurt R. Forum for DevelopmentStudies, no. 2. Oslo: Norwegian Spillmann;(2) The EnvironmentalChange and Security Instituteof InternationalAffairs. Project of the Woodrow Wilson InternationalCenterfor Dessler, David, 1994. 'How to Sort Causes in the Study of Scholars in Washington,DC, underthe directionof P. J. EnvironmentalChangeand Violent Conflict', pp. 91-112 Simmons; (3) The Departmentof Peace and Conflict in Graeger& Smith. Research, Uppsala University, under the direction of Deudney, Daniel, 1990. 'The Case Against Linking Peter Wallensteen; and (4) The International Peace Environmental Degradation and National Security', Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) under the direction of Millennium,vol. 19, no. 3, Winter,pp. 461-476. Dan Smith. Many of the strengthsand weaknesses of the Dokken, Karin, 1997. 'Environmental Conflict and Toronto Group's project are found in these other proInternationalIntegration',pp. 523-539 in Gleditsch. jects, but space does not permitme to elaborateon them Dokken, Karin & Nina Grasger, 1995. The Concept of individually. EnvironmentalSecurity- Political Slogan or Analytical 5. Homer-Dixon (1991, pp. 84-85) initially envisaged a Tool? PRIO Report no. 2. Oslo: InternationalPeace study which should include 'aspects of global environResearchInstitute. mental problems'. However, the list of case studies un- Dunlap, Riley E., 1994. 'InternationalAttitudes Towards dertakenincludes nine cases within the frameworkof a Environment and Development', pp. 115-126 in single state and three with a dyadic dimension. Bergesen & Parmann. 6. In the 1991 article, Homer-Dixon used the term 'main Ellingsen, Tanja, 1997. 'Are All Democracies Methods of environmentaleffects' as the independentvariablein his Non-Violence?' Paper presented at the Fifth National key model. Later,the term became replacedby 'environConference in Political Science, Geilo, 13 15 January. mental scarcity', which is caused by decrease in quantity Galtung, Johan, 1982. Environment, Development and and quality of renewable resources, population growth Military Activity: Towards Alternative Security and unequal resource access (Homer-Dixon, 1994). Doctrines. Oslo: Norwegian University Press.

Three Generationsof Environmentand SecurityResearch 481 Gleditsch,Nils Petter, 1996. 'The Environment,Politics and Armed Conflict - A Critique and Research Proposal'. Paper presented at 'Conflict and the Environment', NATO Advanced Research Workshop,Bolkesjo, 12-16 June. [Revised version to appear in Journal of Peace Research, no. 2, 1998.] Gleditsch, Nils Petter, ed., 1997. Conflict and the Environment.Dordrecht:Kluwer. Gleick, Peter H., 1993. 'Waterand Security', International Security, vol. 18, no. 1, Summer,pp. 79-112. Goldstone, Jack, 1996a. 'Debate', EnvironmentalChange and SecurityProject Report,Issue 2, pp. 66-71. Goldstone, Jack, 1996b. 'Saving the Environment (and Political Stability too): Institutional Responses for Developing Nations', Environmental Change and SecurityProject Report,Issue 2, pp. 33-34. Goodland, Robert, 1994. 'Environmental Sustainability: Imperativefor Peace', pp. 19-46 in Graeger& Smith. Graeger,Nina, 1996. 'EnvironmentalSecurity?',Journal of Peace Research, vol. 33, no. 1, February,pp. 109-116. Graeger, Nina & Dan Smith, eds, 1994. Environment, Poverty, Conflict.PRIO Reportno. 2. Oslo: International Peace ResearchInstitute. Hauge, Wenche & Tanja Ellingsen, 1996. 'Environmental Change and Civil War:A MultivariateApproach'. Paper presented at 'Conflict and the Environment', NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Bolkesjo, 12-16 June. [Revised version to appearin Journal of Peace Research, no. 2, 1998.] Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1991. 'On the Threshold EnvironmentalChange as Causes of Acute Conflict', InternationalSecurity,vol. 16, no. 2, Fall, pp. 76-116. Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1994. 'Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases', InternationalSecurity,vol. 19, no. 1, Summer,pp. 5-40. Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1995. Strategies for Studying Causation in Complex Ecological Political Systems. Toronto: University of Toronto Project on Environment, Populationand Security. Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1995/96. 'Environment and Security- To the Editors',InternationalSecurity,vol. 20, no. 3, Winter,pp. 189-194. Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1996a. 'Debate', Environmental Change and SecurityProject Report,Issue 2, pp. 49-57. Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1996b. 'Environmental Scarcity and Mass Violence'. Paperpresentedat 'Conflict and the Environment', NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Bolkesjn, 12-16 June. Homer-Dixon, Thomas & Valerie Percival, 1996. Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: Briefing Book. Toronto: University of Toronto Project on Environment,Populationand Security. Howard, Philip & Thomas Homer-Dixon, 1995. EnvironmentalScarcityand ViolentConflict:The Case of Chiapas, Mexico. Toronto:University of TorontoProject on Environment,Populationand Security. Laugen, Torunn & Leiv Lunde, 1996. 'Development Assistance and the Integration of Environmental Concerns: Current Status and Future Challenges', pp. 81-90 in Bergesen & Parmann. Levy, Marc, 1995a. 'Is the Environmenta NationalSecurity Issue?', International Security, vol. 20, no. 2, Fall, pp. 35-62.

Levy, Marc, 1995b. 'Time for a ThirdWave of Environment and Security Scholarship?' EnvironmentalChange and SecurityProject Report,Issue 1, pp. 44-46. Levy, Marc, 1995/96. 'Environmentand Security - The Author Replies', InternationalSecurity, vol. 20, no. 3, Winter,pp. 195-198. Levy, Marc, 1996. 'Debate', EnvironmentalChange and SecurityProject Report, Issue 2, pp. 58-60. Lipschutz, Ronnie D., 1997. 'EnvironmentalConflict and EnvironmentalDeterminism:The Relative Importanceof Social and NaturalFactors',pp. 35-50 in Gleditsch. eds, 1992. The Lodgaard, Sverre & Anders H. af Ornmas, Environmentand InternationalSecurity.PRIOReportno. 3. Oslo: InternationalPeace ResearchInstitute. Mathews, Jessica Tuchman, 1989. 'Redefining Security', Foreign Affairs,vol. 68, no. 2, Spring,pp. 162-177. Matthew, RichardA., 1996 'The Greening of US Foreign Policy', Issues in Science and Technology,vol. 13, no. 1, Fall, pp. 39-47. Myers, Norman, 1989. 'EnvironmentalSecurity', Foreign Polic!y,no. 74, Spring,pp. 23-41. NATO, 1991. The Alliance Strategic Concept. Office of Informationand Press. Osborn, Fairfield, 1953. Our Plundered Planet. Boston, MA: Little, Brown. Porter, Gareth, 1996. 'Advancing EnvironmentalSecurity through "Integrated Security Resource Planning'", Environmental Change and Security Project Report, Issue 2, pp. 35-38. Reed, David, ed., 1996. Structural Adjustment, the Environment, and Sustainable Development. London: Earthscan. Renner, Michael, 1989. National Security: The Economic and EnvironmentalDimensions. WorldwatchPaper, no. 89. Washington,DC. Renner, Michael, 1996. Fighting for Survival EnvironmentalDecline, Social Conflict,and the New Age of Insecurity.New York & London:Norton. Rogers, Katrina S., 1997. 'Preempting Violent Conflict: Learningfrom EnvironmentalCooperation',pp. 503-518 in Gleditsch. Smith, Dan, 1994. 'Dynamics of ContemporaryConflict: Consequencesfor Development Strategies',pp. 47-89 in Graeger& Smith. Smith, Dan, 1997. The State of War and Peace Atlas. London:Penguin. Smith, Dan & Willy Ostreng, eds, 1997. Environment, Poverty, and Conflict:A Proposal.PRIO Report,no. 3. Swain, Ashok, 1997. 'Displacing the Conflict: Environmental Destruction in Bangladesh and Ethnic Conflictin India',Journal of Peace Research,vol. 33, no. 2, May, pp. 189-204. Stokke, Olav S. & Davor Vidas, 1996. Governing the Antarctic: The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Ullman, Richard H., 1983. 'Redefining Security', InternationalSecurity,vol. 8, no. 1, Summer,pp. 129-153. Westing, Arthur, ed., 1986. Global Resources and InternationalConflict.Oxford:Oxford University Press. World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987. Our Common Future. New York: Oxford University Press.

482

CarstenR0nnfeldt

Wever, Ole, 1995. 'Securitization and Desecuritization', pp. 46-80 in Ronnie Lipschutz,On Security.New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press.

Young, Oran R., 1994. International Governance, Protecting the Environmentin a Stateless Society. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

, b. 1962, Master in Political Science (Roskilde University). Researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (November 1996 to April 1997) and at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (1995- ); current research interests: the interface between development and security, and UN Peace Operations.

Rnnfeldt 1997 environment-security.pdf

... and security Renewable resources Environment and. and conflict security. Level of analysis Global/StatelIndividual State/Sub-state Global/Regional/State/.

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