Company Preview 17 Apr 2018
Btmn Net profit EPS
PTTGC – BUY (TP’18: 113) 1QFY18 norm-profit expected to hit new high 1QFY18E
4QFY17
1QFY17
% y-y
% q-q
12,646
9,559
13,182
-4.1
32.3
2.83
2.23
2.96
-4.1
32.3
1QFY18 norm-profit expected to hit new high: We forecast norm-profit will scale a new high of Bt11.9bn, up 12% q-q and 7% y-y in 1QFY18 due chiefly to wider petrochemical spreads and a high utilization rate. In this period, refinery business is likely to weaken on assumptions that market GRM will drop to US$6.4/barrel compared to US$6.8/barrel in 4QFY17 due to an upward trend in crude premium, tracking crude oil prices but it will receive a boost from higher spreads of middle distillates. Olefins business is expected to be better as HDPE price grew 13% q-q to US$1,379 as a result of China’s growing demand. The performance of aromatic business is projected to be slightly weaker although spreads of paraxylene and benzene spreads increased q-q, the business is still under pressure from a q-q decrease in by-product spreads (LPG and condensate) which may pull P2F down to US$184/ton from US$194/ton in 4QFY17. However, we estimate norm-profit will soar to Bt12.6bn, up 32% q-q but down 4% y-y if the impact of oil stock and baht value is included in our forecast. ‘BUY’ rating still intact with target price of Bt113/share: We leave our FY18 profit outlook for PTTGC unchanged at Bt43.5bn, representing an 11% increase, on expectations that (i) petrochemical spreads tend to be stronger, (ii) PTTGC will recognize a full-year contribution from the ‘asset injection’ project which is expected to generate a profit of around Bt4.9bn a year, (iii) efficiency enhancement of MAX project is expected to add a profit of around Bt3bn, and (iv) PTTGC will unlikely set aside investment impairment allowances as it recorded last year for Myriant. (Source: Company) Naree Apisawaittakan Securities Investment Analyst #17971/Athid Siriphand Ref. No.: CO2018_330 This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. PST accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, direct or indirect from the use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions or analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.
Corporate Governance - 2017
Thai CAC (As of July 31, 2017) Declared
Non-participation
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AGE
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ML
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D
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THE
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III
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TRUE
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KC
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U
UPA
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M
MACO
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MAX
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MCS
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S11
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SIAM
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Industry Group Name Agro & Food Indus try[AGRO] Cons umer Products [CONSUMP]
Fi na nci a l s [FINCIAL]
Indus tri a l s [INDUS]
Property & Cons tructi on[PROPCON]
Res ources [RESOURC] Servi ces [SERVICE]
Technol ogy [TECH]
Sector Name Agri bus i nes s Food & Bevera ge Fa s hi on Home & Offi ce Products Pers ona l Products & Pha rma ceuti ca l s Ba nki ng Fi na nce & Securi ti es Ins ura nce Automoti ve Indus tri a l Ma te ri a l s & Ma chi nery Pa cka gi ng Pa per & Pri nti ng Ma teri a l s Petrochemi ca l s & Chemi ca l s Steel Cons tructi on Ma teri a l s Cons tructi on Servi ces Property Devel opment Property Fund & REITs Energy & Uti l i ti es Mi ni ng Commerce Medi a & Publ i s hi ng Hea l th Ca re Servi ces Touri s m & Lei s ure Profes s i ona l Se rvi ces Tra ns porta ti on & Logi s ti cs El ectroni c Components Informa ti on & Communi ca ti on Technol ogy
Sector Index AGRI FOOD FASHION HOME PERSON BANK FIN INSUR AUTO IMM PKG PAPER PETRO STEEL CONMAT CONS PROP PF&REIT ENERG MINE COMM MEDIA HELTH TOURISM PROF TRANS ETRON ICT
PSR Rating System Capital Gain > 15% > 5% - 15% > 0% - 5% 0 <=
Recommendation BUY ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY NEUTRAL SELL
Remarks We do not ba s e our recommenda ti ons enti rel y on the a bove qua nti ta ti ve return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i ta ti ve fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s enti ment, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a ti on, pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca ta l ys ts , a nd s pecul a ti ve undertones s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda ti on
Research Team Fundamental Sa s i korn Cha roe ns uwa n, CFA, CAI A Da na i Tunya phi s i tcha i , CFA
Analyst Reg No. Ca pi ta l Ma rke t I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #9744 Ca pi ta l Ma rke t I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #2375
Tel 662 635 1700 Ext 480 662 635 1700 Ext 481
Na re e Api s a wa i tta ka n
Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #17971
662 635 1700 Ext 484
Si a m Ti ya nont Adi s orn Mua ngpa rnchon Ha tha i cha noke Moonwong Pa ttra porn Boonma l e rt Ya ni n Api cha rts a kul wong Athi d Si ri pha nd Pa cha ra Ye npa i s a rn
Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #17970 Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #18577 Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #64324 Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #95008 Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #41993 As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t
662 635 1700 Ext 483 662 635 1700 Ext 497 662 635 1700 Ext 530 662 635 1700 Ext 525 662 635 1700 Ext 532
Strategy Te e ra da Cha rnyi ngyong Chuti ka rn Sa nti me tvi rul Kl a na rong Mongkol s i ri cha i kul Ki tti Bua bue ng Ta na pon Ni mi tta non
Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #9501 De ri va ti ve s Inve s tme nt Ana l ys t #37928 As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t
662 635 1700 Ext 487 662 635 1700 Ext 491
Technical Sa s i ma Ha tta ki tni korn Kri tti na t Pa ntuwi chi t
Se curi ti e s I nve s tme nt Ana l ys t #18328 As s i s ta nt Ana l ys t
662 635 1700 Ext 490
Database & Production Ma nunpa t Yue nyongwa ta na korn Suti porn Oupka e w Ka ni ttha Sri wong Translation Cha i yot I ngkha s ora ra t Cha l oe mpong Pha ntupo
Sector Fi na nce &Se curi ti e s Cons tructi on Ma te ri a l s , Prope rty De ve l opme nt, Ene rgy Agri bus i ne s s , Food&be ve ra ge , El e ctroni c Compone nts , Ene rgy, Pe troche mi ca l s , I CT Tra ns porta ti on, Me di a & Publ i s hi ng Ba nki ng, Se curi ti e s & Fi na nce , He a l th Ca re , Touri s m Food&be ve ra ge , I CT Automoti ve , Comme rce
Head Office and Branches Domestics Offices Bangkok Offices He a d Offi ce Sri n a ka ri n dr Vi p ha va d e e Ya owa ra j Ba n gka pi 1 Ba n gka pi 2 Hu a l ump ho ng Ra n gs i t Si a m Di s cove ry Ce ntra l Worl d Si nd h orn EmQu a rti e r Ama ri n
849 Vora wa t Bl dg., 11s t Fl ., Un i t 1101,1102,1104, 14th Fl ., Un i t 1403, 1404 a n d 15th Fl ., 22n d Fl ., Un i t 2202 Si l om Rd. Si l o m,Ba n gra k, Ba n gko k 10500 699 Mod e rn fo rm To we r, 17th Fl ., Sri na ka ri nd r Rd ., Su a n Lua ng, Su a n Lua ng, Ba n gkok 10250 333 La o Pe n g Ngu a n To we r 1, 15th Fl ., So i Chu a yp ua n g, Vi p ha va d i -Ra ngs i t Rd ., Jomph o n, Cha tu cha k, Ba n gko k 10900 308 Ka n ch a na dh a t Bl d g., 19th Fl ., Ya o wa ra t Rd ., Ja ka wa t, Sa mpa nta won g, Ba n gko k 10100 3522 The Ma l l Offi ce To we r-Ba ngka p , 8th Fl ., La d Pra o Rd., Kl o n gcha n, Ba ngka p i , Ba ngkok 10240 3522 The Ma l l Offi ce To we r-Ba ngka p , 8th Fl ., La d Pra o Rd., Kl o n gcha n, Ba ngka p i , Ba ngkok 10240 320 Ta n g Hua Pa k Bl d g., 4th Fl ., Ra ma 4 Rd., Ma h a p ru th a ra m, Ba n gra k, Ba ngkok 10500 94 Fu tu re Pa rk Ra ngs i t, G Fl ., Ro om#PLZ.G.SHP065A, Pa h ol yothi n Rd ., Pra ch a thi pa t, Thu nya bu ri , Pa th umtha ni 12130 989 Si a m To we r Bu i l di ng, 11th Fl ., Un i t A2, Ra ma I Rd ., Pa th umwa n , Pa th umwa n, Ba ngkok 10330 999/9 Th e Offi ce s a t Ce ntra l Wo rl d, 17 FL. Un i t ML 1707, Ra ma I Rd , Pa th umwa n, Pa thu mwa n , Ba n gko k 10330 130-132 Si n dh orn Towe r 3 Bui l d i n g, 19 Fl o or, Wi re l e s s Rd., Lu mpi ni , Pa th umwa n, Ba ngkok 10330 689 Bhi ra j To we r a t EmQu a rti e r, 39th fl oo r, Un i t 3909-10, Su khu mvi t Rd ., Kl on gto n Nu e a , Va dh a n a , Ba ngkok 10110 496-502 Ama ri n To we r, 8th fl o or, Un i t 6-7, Pl o e nch i t Rd ., Lump i n i , Pa thu mwa n , Ba n gko k 10330
Provincial Offices Ch i a n gma i Ha d Ya i Ha d Ya i - Pe tka s e a m Kh on Ka e n Ph i ts a nu l o k Ch ump orn Le a mcha ba ng I nve s to r Ce n te r Kho nKa e n
111/51 Mo o 2 Ma h i d ol Rd ., No ng Ho i , Mu a n g Chi a n g Ma i , Ch i a ng Ma i 50000 55 So uthl a n d Ru bb e r Bl d g., 4th Fl ., Ra tyi n d e e Rd ., Ha d Ya i , Ha d Ya i , Son gkl a 90110 607 Re d a r Grou p Bl d g., 3rd Fl ., Uni t 3D, Pe tka s e a m Rd ., Ha d Ya i , Ha d Ya i , Son gkl a 90110 359/2 Ko w Yoo Ha h Bl d g., 4th Fl ., Mi tta p a p Rd., Na i mu a n g, Mua n g Kh on Ka e n , Kh on Ka e n 40000 59/15 Tha i Si va ra t Bl d g., 2n d Fl ., Ba ro mtri l o ka na d 2 Rd ., Na i mua n g, Mua ng Pi ts a nu l o k, Ph i ts a nu l o k 65000 25/45 Kro m Lu a n g Ch u mp orn Rd ., Ta ta pa o, Mu a n g Chu mp o rn , Ch umpo rn 86000 53/112, 53/114 Mo o 9, Tu ngs ukl a , Sri ra cha , Ch on bu ri 20230 252 Moo 11, Mu a ng Ka o , Mua ng Kho n Ka e n , Kh on Ka e n 40000
Overseas Offices SI NGAPORE HONG KONG MALAYSI A JAPAN I NDONESIA CHI NA FRANCE UNITED KI NGDOM UNITED STATES AUSTRALI A SRI LANKA TURKEY I NDI A DUBAI CAMBODI A
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