tooclosetocall.ca

% seats

Airdrie Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater Banff-Cochrane Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock Battle River-Wainwright Bonnyville-Cold Lake Calgary-Acadia Calgary-Bow Calgary-Buffalo Calgary-Cross Calgary-Currie Calgary-East Calgary-Elbow Calgary-Fish Creek Calgary-Foothills Calgary-Fort Calgary-Glenmore Calgary-Greenway Calgary-Hawkwood Calgary-Hays Calgary-Klein Calgary-Lougheed Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill Calgary-McCall Calgary-Mountain View

PC 26.7 12

PC 16.4% 31.4% 24.0% 28.6% 30.0% 31.6% 31.0% 31.5% 17.0% 30.4% 30.2% 31.1% 27.5% 29.4% 40.1% 16.6% 32.2% 36.2% 32.2% 38.5% 27.8% 34.3% 31.7% 15.4% 16.8%

Wildrose 25.3 19

Wildrose 47.8% 26.7% 25.1% 34.9% 35.6% 33.8% 34.3% 29.5% 13.1% 30.4% 20.8% 30.8% 14.5% 36.1% 24.5% 30.8% 30.8% 23.5% 28.6% 28.6% 27.0% 30.5% 30.8% 22.2% 14.7%

Lib 4.9 3

Lib 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 3.7% 6.5% 38.7% 7.6% 13.4% 3.4% 6.0% 0.0% 4.1% 7.1% 4.5% 7.5% 5.9% 3.2% 9.4% 4.9% 5.2% 33.6% 37.2%

NDP 39.4 53

NDP 34.9% 41.9% 39.8% 36.5% 34.1% 33.8% 30.9% 30.0% 31.2% 31.6% 31.5% 34.6% 26.8% 33.7% 31.2% 44.6% 31.7% 32.8% 31.2% 29.8% 35.9% 30.4% 32.3% 28.8% 31.2%

Alberta 1.5 0

May 4th 2015 Probabilities to win most seats (and majority) PC Wildrose Lib NDP Alberta 1% 3% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 0%

Alberta 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 25.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Probabilities to win the riding PC Wildrose Lib NDP 0% 93% 0% 7% 1% 0% 0% 99% 1% 24% 0% 75% 1% 44% 0% 55% 4% 42% 0% 54% 9% 47% 0% 44% 22% 55% 0% 23% 46% 24% 0% 31% 0% 0% 74% 26% 29% 29% 0% 42% 41% 1% 0% 59% 22% 18% 0% 60% 46% 0% 0% 39% 6% 80% 0% 14% 89% 0% 0% 11% 0% 1% 0% 99% 39% 25% 0% 36% 84% 4% 0% 12% 46% 15% 0% 38% 86% 5% 0% 9% 8% 5% 0% 87% 59% 19% 0% 21% 34% 25% 0% 42% 0% 3% 64% 34% 0% 0% 69% 31%

Alberta 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Calgary-North West Calgary-Northern Hills Calgary-Shaw Calgary-South East Calgary-Varsity Calgary-West Cardston-Taber-Warner Chestermere-Rocky View Cypress-Medicine Hat Drayton Valley-Devon Drumheller-Stettler Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Edmonton-Calder Edmonton-Castle Downs Edmonton-Centre Edmonton-Decore Edmonton-Ellerslie Edmonton-Glenora Edmonton-Gold Bar Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Edmonton-Manning Edmonton-McClung Edmonton-Meadowlark Edmonton-Mill Creek Edmonton-Mill Woods Edmonton-Riverview Edmonton-Rutherford Edmonton-South West Edmonton-Strathcona Edmonton-Whitemud Fort McMurray-Conklin Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

34.8% 33.8% 27.3% 32.9% 31.0% 31.6% 21.4% 18.8% 19.2% 33.6% 27.5% 28.4% 13.0% 12.6% 30.5% 8.6% 20.2% 21.9% 15.9% 10.7% 0.0% 18.0% 22.0% 12.7% 32.7% 13.8% 17.3% 22.5% 33.0% 0.0% 29.7% 35.2% 31.4% 32.4%

30.2% 29.4% 36.3% 35.0% 18.1% 31.1% 43.4% 47.5% 42.6% 30.1% 39.1% 34.2% 11.0% 9.4% 12.4% 3.1% 12.1% 16.1% 7.3% 6.1% 6.7% 15.9% 7.8% 11.3% 9.1% 15.1% 5.2% 8.2% 8.6% 0.0% 8.5% 36.8% 34.6% 26.4%

3.9% 5.5% 4.2% 2.5% 17.7% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.7% 7.9% 36.4% 12.0% 7.9% 6.4% 16.1% 0.8% 4.2% 18.6% 32.1% 10.1% 18.4% 18.7% 20.2% 11.1% 0.5% 9.5% 0.2% 0.3% 2.3%

29.6% 31.3% 29.3% 29.6% 30.9% 31.9% 34.3% 33.7% 34.5% 35.4% 33.5% 37.4% 72.7% 75.3% 49.3% 51.9% 55.6% 54.1% 60.6% 64.5% 92.5% 61.9% 48.3% 43.9% 48.1% 52.7% 56.3% 49.0% 44.3% 99.5% 52.2% 27.9% 33.7% 38.0%

1.5% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

66% 56% 5% 32% 50% 30% 0% 0% 0% 17% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 27% 8% 7%

17% 15% 81% 55% 0% 55% 85% 95% 79% 12% 72% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% 36% 1%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

18% 29% 14% 13% 50% 15% 15% 5% 21% 70% 26% 79% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 98% 100% 100% 100% 92% 100% 100% 11% 55% 93%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Grande Prairie-Smoky Grande Prairie-Wapiti Highwood Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills Lacombe-Ponoka Leduc-Beaumont Lesser Slave Lake Lethbridge-East Lethbridge-West Little Bow Livingstone-Macleod Medicine Hat Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Peace River Red Deer-North Red Deer-South Rimbey-Rocky Mountain HouseSt. Albert Sherwood Park Spruce Grove-St. Albert Stony Plain Strathcona-Sherwood Park Strathmore-Brooks Vermilion-Lloydminster West Yellowhead Wetaskiwin-Camrose Whitecourt-Ste. Anne

add incumbency effect

29.3% 34.2% 25.7% 23.6% 26.1% 19.7% 34.0% 32.1% 24.7% 20.6% 19.6% 25.5% 21.7% 20.6% 37.9% 22.2% 27.1% 24.1% 35.4% 29.9% 36.4% 28.4% 33.6% 22.4% 35.2% 33.7% 35.2% 29.2%

33.3% 26.9% 41.2% 35.3% 38.3% 33.6% 24.0% 32.1% 21.3% 16.2% 43.2% 38.1% 32.1% 45.3% 20.6% 23.5% 23.9% 40.6% 12.8% 23.4% 18.9% 29.3% 25.8% 44.2% 30.3% 22.6% 24.3% 35.1%

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 3.5% 1.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 7.1% 6.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

35.3% 38.1% 32.3% 35.4% 35.6% 40.7% 38.3% 35.7% 41.5% 59.8% 35.6% 36.4% 39.7% 33.4% 40.6% 36.5% 39.3% 35.3% 37.0% 39.6% 37.5% 36.1% 39.8% 32.6% 34.5% 43.8% 40.5% 35.6%

0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 5.7% 0.0% 6.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 2.7% 4.6% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 13% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 1% 2% 0% 20% 5% 22% 2% 11% 0% 27% 2% 9% 2%

example: if you type 10%, then the incumbents of this party will have the provincial swing reduced by 10%

23% 1% 86% 52% 66% 22% 1% 18% 0% 0% 79% 57% 33% 92% 0% 2% 1% 72% 0% 3% 0% 6% 2% 90% 12% 0% 0% 47%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

74% 87% 13% 48% 34% 78% 86% 72% 100% 100% 21% 43% 67% 8% 76% 98% 97% 28% 80% 93% 78% 91% 87% 10% 61% 98% 91% 51%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%