On Eliciting Beliefs in Strategic Games Thomas R. Palfrey and Stephanie W. Wang Division of Social Sciences, Caltech and Department of Economics, Princeton Paper can be downloaded at: http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~trp/belief-elicitation.030507.pdf
CDFs of Individual Forecast Dispersion 100 Cumulative Probability (%)
90 80 70 Quadratic
60
Logarithmic
50
Linear
40
NS
30 20 10 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Deviation from 50/50
• • • • •
Perfect calibration: slope = 1 All forecasters are overconfident (slope < 1) Quad and log better calibrated (0.4 > slope >0.3) Linear less well calibrated (slope = 0.16) N-S poorly calibrated (slope not significantly different from 0)
• CDFs of individual forecast dispersions • Stochastic dominance order of dispersion – linear > N-S > quad > log • Supports results 3a & 3b
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