Chemical India I Equities

Result Update Change in Estimates  Target  Reco 

27 May 2013

Phillips Carbon Black

Rating: Hold Target Price: `74 Share Price: `65

Performance subdued, improvement in sight; Hold Key takeaways Sales flattish. In 4QFY13, Phillips Carbon Black reported `5.34bn in revenue (down 0.9% yoy), 5.8% below our estimated `5.7bn. Sales in the carbon black (CB) division, slipped 0.3% (to `5.16bn), while those in the power division fell 13.3% (to `0.19bn). Despite a 6.9% yoy drop in sales volumes, to 69,600 tons, realisations increased from the pass-through of the steep rise in cost of raw material. Export volumes grew 24% yoy. 1QFY14 volumes are expected to be slightly better than those in 4QFY13. EBITDA margin at 5.5%. EBIDTA came at `296m, just 3.5% below our estimate and 11.4% lower yoy. The EBIDTA margin was 5.5%, 65bps lower yoy, declining as the company was unable to fully pass on the increase in rawmaterial costs. After two quarters of losses, the margin in CB has been good and is expected to improve from now. In 1QFY14 the power division’s average realization would be in line with its 4QFY13 figures. QoQ, PBT turns from loss to profit. PCB reported PBT of `15m, vs `60m yoy and a `145m loss qoq. This was better than what we had estimated. On account of the `43m deferred tax credit availed of in 4QFY13, reported PAT was `49.4m. The forex loss in 4Q fell sharply, to `17.9m. Our take. Since 30% safeguard duty was imposed in Oct’12 (till Oct’13) and 25% on CB imports from China till 31 Dec’13, such imports have slid, but ` imports from Korea have now increased. The 50,000-ton Cochin plant CB expansion has been completed in May’13. An MoU has been obtained from the Tamil Nadu government to set up a new CB and power plant; environment clearances are in progress. In view of global developments, project work at Vietnam is under review. We value the stock at a target PE of 4.5x FY14e earnings. We maintain a Hold, with a price target of `74. Risks. A slowdown with original equipment manufacturers and adverse forex movement. Year end 31 March

4QFY12

4QFY13

% yoy

FY12

FY13

% yoy

5404

5354

(0.9)

21,868

22,849

4.5

EBITDA (`m)

334

296

(11.4)

2,092

736

(64.8)

EBITDA margin (%)

6.2

5.5

(65)bps

9.6

3.2

(634)bps

Sales (`m)

Interest (`m)

212

176

(16.9)

676

721

6.7

Depreciation (`m)

128

126

(1.4)

486

508

4.5

Other income (`m)

66

21

(68.3)

104

93

(11.2)

PBT (`m)

60

15

(75.7)

1034

-400

(138.7)

Tax (`m)

10

-35

(466.3)

163

(194)

(219.0)

15.8

(238.4)

-

15.8

48.5

-

50

49

(2.2)

871

-206

(123.7)

Tax rate (%) PAT (`m)

Key data

PHCB IN /PHIL.BO

52-week high / low Sensex / Nifty 3-m average volume Market cap Shares outstanding

`118/ `62 19704 / 5984 US$0.1m `2.2bn / US$40m 34.5m

Shareholding pattern (%)

Mar ’13 Dec ’12 Sept ’12

52.3 47.7 10.1 5.8 31.8

Promoters - of which, Pledged Free Float - Foreign Institutions - Domestic Institutions - Public Estimates revision (%)

52.3 47.7 10.1 6.3 31.3

52.3 47.7 10.1 6.3 31.3

FY14e

FY15e

Sales

(0.2)

(0.2)

EBITDA

(4.7)

(4.3)

EPS

(7.3)

(14.5)

Financials (YE Mar)

FY14e

FY15e

26,236

29,839

Net profit (`m)

571

1,071

EPS (`)

16.6

31.1

(376.6)

87.6

PE (x)

3.9

2.1

PBV (x)

0.4

0.3

Sales (`m)

Growth (%)

RoE (%)

9.3

15.8

RoCE (%)

9.2

12.8

Dividend yield (%) Net gearing (%)

6.1

6.1

120.5

113.5

Source: Anand Rathi Research

Girish Solanki +9122 6626 6712 [email protected]

Source: Company

Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full service brokerage and equities research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient and is to be circulated only within India and to no countries outside India. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in Appendix. Anand Rathi Research

India Equities

27 May 2013

Phillips Carbon Black – Performance subdued, improvement in sight; Hold

Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 2 – Balance sheet (`m)

Fig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar

Net sales Sales growth (%) - Op. expenses EBIDTA EBITDA margins (%) - Interest - Depreciation + Other income - Tax Tax rate (%) PAT PAT growth (%) FDEPS (Rs/share) FDEPS growth (%) CEPS (Rs/share) DPS (Rs/share)

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14e

FY15e

16,902 37 12,394 2,214 13 274 386 89 481 29 1,163 (5) 35 (19) 47 5

21,868 29 16,582 2,092 10 676 486 105 163 16 871 (25) 25 (28) 39 4

22,849 4 18,636 736 3 721 508 93 (194) 48 (206) (124) (6) (124) 9 0.5

26,236 15 20,858 1,942 7 748 566 86 143 20 571 17 33 4

29,839 14 23,423 2,630 9 775 610 93 268 20 1,071 88 31 88 49 4

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14e

FY15e

332 4,891 5,223 5,014 569 10,806 7,842 576 27 1,736 653 10,806 33 84 33 157

345 5,773 6,118 6,554 729 13,401 8,124 724 4,418 135 13,401 34 105 51 178

345 5,567 5,911 8,210 527 14,647 9,023 724 4,210 690 14,647 34 127 69 172

345 5,984 6,328 8,310 527 15,164 8,850 724 4,906 685 15,164 34 120 63 184

345 6,895 7,239 8,610 527 16,375 9,040 724 6,215 396 16,375 34 113 68 210

Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `65

Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) PAT + Non-cash items Cash profit - Incr./(decr.) in WC Operating cash-flow - Capex Free cash-flow - Dividend + Equity raised + Debt raised - Investments - Misc. items Net cash-flow + Op. cash & bank bal. Cl. Cash & bank bal.

Share capital Reserves & surplus Shareholders’ fund Debt Deferred Tax/ others Capital employed Fixed assets Investments of which liquid Working capital Cash Capital deployed No. of shares (m) Net Debt/Equity (%) W C turn (days) Book value (Rs/share)

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Year-end: Mar

Year-end: Mar

FY11

FY12

FY13e

FY14e

FY15e

Year-end: Mar

FY11

FY12

FY13e

FY14e

FY15e

1,160 386 2,019 404 1,615 1,373 242 233 1,052 (540) 198 323 330 653

871 486 1,517 2,683 (1,166) 768 (1,934) 203 226 1,540 148 (518) 653 135

(206) 508 99 (208) 307 1,407 (1,100) 40 39 1,655 555 135 690

571 566 1,137 695 442 393 49 210 56 100 (4) 690 685

1,071 610 1,681 1,309 371 800 (429) 160 300 (289) 685 396

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Cash P/E Dividend Yield (%) Dividend Payout (%) RoE RoCE Debtors (Days) Inventory (Days) Creditors (Days) Working Cap (Days) Asset Turnover (x) Debt/Equity (x)

1.9 0.4 3.0 0.4 1.4 7.7 16.7 27.5 18.6 71 49 163 33 2.2 1.0

2.6 0.4 4.1 0.4 1.7 6.1 18.4 15.4 13.3 76 51 148 51 2.7 1.1

(10.9) 0.4 13.3 0.4 7.5 0.8 (9.7) (3.4) 1.6 85 69 160 69 2.5 1.4

3.9 0.4 5.1 0.4 2.0 6.1 28.1 9.3 9.2 81 70 165 63 3.0 1.3

2.1 0.3 4.0 0.4 1.3 6.1 15.0 15.8 12.8 84 65 158 68 3.3 1.2

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 5 – PB band

Fig 6 – Segment-wise revenue break-up (FY13)

(`) 400

2.0x

Power 4%

350 300 1.5x 250 200

1.0x

150 100

0.5x

50

Carbon black 96%

Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research

Anand Rathi Research

Feb-13

Oct-12

Jun-12

Feb-12

Oct-11

Jun-11

Feb-11

Oct-10

Jun-10

Feb-10

0

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

2

27 May 2013

Phillips Carbon Black – Performance subdued, improvement in sight; Hold

Result highlights Fig 7 – Quarterly results Quarterly results

4QFY12

4QFY13

% var

3QFY13

% var

4QFY13e

% var

Sales EBIDTA

5,404.4 333.9

5,353.7 295.8

(0.9) (11.4)

5,454.8 145.2

(1.9) 103.7

5,682.2 306.4

(5.8) (3.5)

PBT

60.0

14.6

(75.7)

(144.8)

(110.1)

3.4

325.5

PAT

50.5

49.4

(2.2)

7.6

550.0

2.4

1,956.9

% Chg

FY13

21,963

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 8 – Segment results (`m)

4QFY13

Revenue - CB

% Chg

3QFY13

5,166

5180

0%

5,252

-2%

187

216.10

-13%

203

-8%

886

5,354

5,396

-1%

5,455

-2%

22,849

24%

(128)

-272%

-45.6

-22%

905.8

- Power Total PBIT

4QFY12

- CB Percent of Revenue - Power

221

178

4.3%

3.4%

184

215.60

Percent of Revenue

98%

100%

Total

404.1

393.9

Less: Interest

-2.4% -15%

0%

236 116%

3%

102%

108.3

273%

860.2

233.3

188

24%

152

53%

721.3

Less: Other net unalloc. Exp

156

173

-10%

101

55%

539.3

PBT (Before extraordinary items)

14.6

32.3

-55%

-144.8

-110%

-400.4

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Operating performance down CB sales were flat yoy. The EBIT margin in this division increased by 83bps yoy, to 4.3%. Capital employed in this division declined sharply, by `1.5bn qoq, to `8.16bn. Volumes declined 6.9% yoy, to 69,600 tons. Export volumes grew 24% yoy. Exports improved sharply due to more sales to the US and Turkey. With the anticipated economic revival in the USA and China and stabilization in the euro zone, carbon-black feedstock (CBFS) prices are expected to rise. In the power division, volumes declined 23% while realisations rose 16%. Sales in the power division declined 13.3%, to `0.19bn. On account of the safeguard duty imposed, imports from China dropped; however, imports from Korea increased. Fig 10 – RM/sales increase yoy, but down qoq

EBITDA Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Anand Rathi Research

EBITDA margin (%)

Raw material cost

Q4FY13

60 Q3FY13

0 Q2FY13

65 Q1FY13

1,000 Q4FY12

70

Q3FY12

2,000

Q2FY12

75

Q1FY12

3,000

Q4FY11

80

Q3FY11

-5

4,000

Q2FY11

Q4FY13

Q3FY13

Q2FY13

Q1FY13

Q4FY12

Q3FY12

Q2FY12

Q1FY12

Q4FY11

Q3FY11

Q2FY11

Q1FY11

Q4FY10

Q3FY10

Q2FY10

0

85

Q1FY11

5

5,000

Q4FY10

10

(%) 90

Q3FY10

15

(` m) 6,000

Q2FY10

(%) 20

Q1FY10

(`m) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200

Q1FY10

Fig 9 – EBITDA margin improves qoq

Raw material cost as % of sales

Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

3

27 May 2013

Phillips Carbon Black – Performance subdued, improvement in sight; Hold

Valuations Though the short-term outlook is not good, the stock is available at attractive valuations. At this price all the negatives have been already priced in. We maintain a Hold rating, with a price target of `74. We value the stock at a target PE of 4.5x FY14e earnings. Risks

Anand Rathi Research



Volatility in key raw material prices. PCB imports most of its key raw material, CBFS. Prices strongly co-relate with those of crude oil. Though a pricing mechanism is in place, any sharp increase in the price of CBFS, if not passed on to end-customers, would eat into margins.



Capacity utilization. Capacity has been constantly increased over the years. If optimal utilization is not forthcoming, profitability would be substantially affected.



Forex fluctuation. Nearly 90% of the raw material is imported; hence, any depreciation in exchange rates may squeeze margins.

4

Appendix Analyst Certification The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report. Important Disclosures on subject companies Rating and Target Price History (as of 27 May 2013)

320

Phillips Carbon Black 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

270 2

1

220 170

4 3

120

6 7 5

70

Date 19-Jul-10 20-Oct-10 1-Feb-11 22-Feb-11 24-Sep-12 5-Nov-12 7-Jan-13 10-Mar-13

Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold Sell Hold Hold

TP (`) 278 272 261 246 110 105 105 81

Share Price (`) 206 209 134 134 92 105 94 67

8 Apr-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Jan-10 Apr-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Oct-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

20

The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi Research have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues. Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (US$1bn) Mid/Small Caps (
Buy >15% >25%

Anand Rathi Research Ratings Distribution (as of 28 Feb 2013) Buy Anand Rathi Research stock coverage (184) 65% % who are investment banking clients 4%

Hold 5-15% 5-25%

Sell <5% <5%

Hold 27% 2%

Sell 8% 0%

Other Disclosures This report has been issued by ARSSBL which is a SEBI regulated entity, and which is in full compliance with all rules and regulations as are applicable to its functioning and governance. The investors should note that ARSSBL is one of the companies comprising within ANAND RATHI group, and ANAND RATHI as a group consists of various companies which may include (but is not limited to) its subsidiaries, its affiliates, its group companies who may hold positions, views, stakes and may service the companies covered in this report independent of ARSSBL. Investors are cautioned to be aware that there could arise a potential conflict of interest in the views held by ARSSBL and other companies of Anand Rathi who maybe affiliated, connected or catering to the companies mentioned in the Research Report; even though, ARSSBL and Anand Rathi are fully complaint with all procedural and operational regulatory requirements. Thus, investors should not use this as a sole basis for making their investment decision and should consider the recommendations mentioned in the Research Report bearing in mind the aforementioned. Further, the information herein has been obtained from various sources which we believe is reliable, and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities (hereinafter referred to as “Related Investments”). ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi may trade for their own accounts as market maker / jobber and/or arbitrageur in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in related investments, and may be on taking a different position from the ones which haven been taken by the public orders. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi and its affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may have a long or short position in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in Related Investments. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi, may from time to time, perform investment banking, investment management, financial advisory or any other services not explicitly mentioned herein, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any entity and/or company mentioned in this Research Report; however, the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the other companies of Anand Rathi, even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest. Furthermore, this Research Report is prepared for private circulation and use only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the specific financial needs or objectives of any specific person who may receive this Research Report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this Research Report, and, should understand that statements regarding future prospects may or may not be realized, and we can not guarantee the same as analysis and valuation is a tool to enable investors to make investment decisions but, is not an exact and/or a precise science. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investments mentioned in this report.

Other Disclosures pertaining to distribution of research in the United States of America This material was produced by ARSSBL, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by Enclave Capital LLC (19 West 44th Street, Suite 1700, New York, NY 10036) and elsewhere in the world by ARSSBL or an authorized affiliate of ARSSBL (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by ARSSBL, the “Affiliates”). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of ARSSBL or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which ARSSBL or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of ARSSBL or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. 1. ARSSBL or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report. 2. ARSSBL or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months. 3. ARSSBL or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. 4. However, one or more of ARSSBL or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon, either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. 5. As of the publication of this report, ARSSBL does not make a market in the subject securities. 6. ARSSBL or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above, or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time, provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Enclave Capital LLC is distributing this document in the United States of America. ARSSBL accepts responsibility for its contents. Any US customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so only by contacting a representative of Enclave Capital LLC. © 2013 Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited. All rights reserved. This report or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited. Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.

Phillips Carbon Black -

Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full service brokerage and equities ... Market cap ... The 50,000-ton Cochin plant CB.

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