National Public Opinion Survey Pakistan
http://www.gsp.us.com/
GSP releases new Pakistan survey October 24, 2017 - Today Global Strategic Partners (GSP) released a national survey of Pakistan public opinion. The survey covered top issues, approval ratings, and next year’s elections. A summary of the results follows: •
Voters are split on whether or not the country is headed in the right or wrong direction. While they generally felt good about security, law and order, and development, they expressed concern about the economy, load shedding, and corruption.
•
The survey also showed that Pakistanis were angry about the Panama Papers scandal, supported the Supreme Court verdict, and supported the resignation of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
•
PML-N maintains a lead in the ballot test at 38 percent, with PTI in a very strong second place at 27 percent. PPP is in third with 17 percent.
•
Overall the PML-N federal government had a strong job approval rating at 58 percent. The new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abassi received somewhat lower marks, with 43 percent saying that they approved of the job he was doing.
•
The survey also tested some of the names of potential successors to Nawaz Sharif that have been mentioned in the press. Current Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has emerged as the best choice of the potential PML-N candidates.
The survey consisted of 4,540 in-home, in-person interviews and is nationally representative of Pakistanis 18 years of age and older. The confidence interval was +/- 1.5 percent at the midrange with a confidence level of 95 percent. The complete survey follows.
For more information:
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Indicators
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Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
DK/NR 2%
Right Direction 47% Wrong Direction 52%
4
[Of the 47% that responded right direction] Why do you think that things are head in the right direction? (Open-ended)
43%
Better Law & Order Development Work
30% 8%
Opration Radd-ul-Fasad
5%
Control on Corruption Better Government
4%
Progress of Economy
3%
Disqualification of Nawaz Sharif
3%
Low Inflation
3%
End Poverty
1%
More Employment Opportunities
1%
Other
2%
DK/NR
2%
5
[Of the 51% that respond Wrong direction] Why do you think that things are head in the wrong direction? (Open-ended)
Corruption
17% 15%
High Inflation Political Instability
12% 12%
Unemployment Loadshedding
8%
Terrorism
8%
Bad Economy
5%
Poverty
3% 3%
Bad Law & Order Bad Performance of Gov't Lack of Development Work Border Tension Sit-in Injustice
2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 8%
None Other
2%
DK/NR
2% 6
Thinking now about the following indicators, how would you rate the situation in Pakistan with each? Very Good
Good
Bad
Very Bad
DK/NR
73%
Law and Order
27%
69%
Security
0%
10%
20%
3%
52%
40%
Load shedding
3%
48%
45%
Political Stability
1%
29%
49%
Economy
1%
59%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1%
80%
90%
100%
7
Thinking again about these indicators, in the next year do you think that the situation is going to be better, worse, or about the same? Better
Same
Worse
DK/NR
56%
Law and Order
31%
54%
Security
33%
45%
Political Stability
0%
10%
20%
16%
33%
41%
Load shedding
11%
36%
43%
Economy
11%
20%
30%
30%
40%
50%
70%
80%
3%
3%
4%
3%
27%
60%
2%
90%
100%
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Top Issues
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In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Pakistan? (Open-ended) Unemployment
21%
Corruption
18%
Loadshedding
13%
Inflation
13%
Terrorism
8%
Poverty
5%
Political Instability
4%
Education
2%
Bad Economy
2%
Law & Order
1%
Sit-in
1%
Gas
1%
Drinking Water
1%
Roads
1%
Hospitals
1%
Injustice
1%
Other
1%
DK/NR
7% 10
Elections
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Which of the following statements comes closest to your personal opinion:
The conditions in the country have improved over the last few years and we need to keep things headed on this path 47%
DK/NR 5%
This country needs a change. It is time to give new people a chance to run things 48%
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If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? (Open-ended) 40%
38%
35% 30%
27%
25% 20%
17%
15% 10%
7%
5%
4%
3% 1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
ANP
JI
BNP
PML-Q
0% PML-N
PTI
PPP
MQM JUI-F Pakistan
Other
DK/NR 13
If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote? (Party Vote by Province) Punjab
KP 58%
PML-N
23%
PTI
10%
PML-N
6%
PPP
62%
PTI
5%
ANP
JI
1%
JI
1%
PML-Q
0%
JUI-F
1%
IND
1%
PPP
2%
Balochistan
Sindh 52%
PPP PML-N
12%
MQM Pakistan
11% 14%
PTI PML-F
2%
JUI-F
1%
JI
1%
33%
PTI
15%
PML-N
9%
PPP
8%
BNP
6%
PKMAP ANP
2%
NP
1%
14
Would you ever consider voting for PTI?
DK/NR 9% Yes, maybe 37%
No, never 54%
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Can you name one reason why you would not vote for PTI? (Open-ended)
Lack of Political Experience
26%
Due to Imran Khan
10% 9%
Don't Like PTI Promotes Western Culture Due to Sit-in Due to PTI Corruption Dishonest No Development Work Self-Interested Bad for Country Doesn't Have a Future Bad Speeches Criticism of State Institutions Bad Performance in KP No Specific Reason Other DK/NR
5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 15%
16
Can you name one reason why you would not vote for PML-N? (Open-ended) 54%
Corrupt Bad Performance Don't Like PML-N
6% 4%
Bad for Country
3%
Disqualification of PM
2%
Dishonest People
2%
Only Development in Punjab
2%
Due to High Inflation
1%
No Development Work
1%
Poverty
1%
Unemployment
1%
Family Politics
1%
No Specific Reason Other DK/NR
3% 2% 18%
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Approval Ratings
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How would do you rate the overall performance of the PML-N federal government?
Very Good
Good
Bad
Very Bad
58%
19%
0%
10%
36%
39%
20%
30%
DK/NR
40%
19%
50%
60%
70%
17%
80%
6%
90%
100%
19
How would do you rate the performance of new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi?
Very Good
Good
Bad
0%
31%
10%
20%
DK/NR
17%
21%
36%
43%
12%
Very Bad
30%
19%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Thinking about the following political personalities, would you say you liked or disliked them when you think about them as people, not in terms of their policies or politics?
65%
Shahbaz Sharif
Nawaz Sharif
31%
59%
37%
51%
Imran Khan
Maryam Nawaz
Bilawal Bhutto
49%
46%
47%
49%
0%
10%
20%
3%
6%
4%
50%
39%
Shahid Khaqan Abbasi
4%
47%
41%
Kulsoom Nawaz
4%
9%
46% 30%
40% Like
50% Dislike
60%
15% 70%
80%
90%
100%
DK/NR 21
Do you think that...would be a good or bad prime minister? Good
Shahbaz Sharif
Imran Khan
Maryam Nawaz
Kulsoom Nawaz
Bad
DK/NR
60%
47%
42%
41%
32%
42%
47%
49%
8%
11%
10%
10% 22
If you had to choose one person to be prime minister and you could only choose people on this list, who would it be?
60%
55%
50% 40% 30% 22% 20%
13% 8%
10% 2% 0%
Shahbaz Sharif
Maryam Nawaz Kulsoom Nawaz (Daughter of Nawaz (Wife of Nawaz Sharif) Sharif)
Other
DK/NR
23
Who do you think would be a better prime minister, Imran Khan or...?
Imran Khan 39%
DK/NR 8%
Shahbaz Sharif 53%
Imran Khan 46%
DK/NR 12%
Maryam Nawaz 42%
Imran Khan 47%
DK/NR 16%
Kulsoom Nawaz 37% 24
Panama Papers
25
The Supreme Court has recently issued a verdict and found Nawaz Sharif guilty in the Panama Papers scandal. Would you say that you agree or disagree with the Supreme Court’s verdict? Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
33%
65%
47%
0%
10%
20%
18%
30%
40%
DK/NR
50%
10%
60%
70%
23%
80%
4%
90%
100%
26
Do you support or oppose Nawaz Sharif stepping down as prime minister as a result of the court verdict? Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
28%
69%
43%
0%
10%
20%
26%
30%
40%
DK/NR
50%
12%
60%
70%
16%
80%
90%
3%
100%
27
How angry are you about the Panama Papers scandal?
Very Angry 26%
Somewhat Angry 32%
DK/NR 5%
Not Angry At All 37%
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Now I want you to think about how the Panama Papers scandal impacts your opinion of PML-N. To what extent do you think that the Panama Papers scandal has hurt PML-N’s image?
DK/NR 5%
It has hurt PML-N’s image a lot 45%
It has not hurt their image at all 20% It has hurt PML-N’s image a fair amount 30%
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Would you say you agreed or disagreed with the following statement: Due to the Panama Papers scandal I am less likely to vote for PML-N and might consider voting for PTI. Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
0%
10%
23%
20%
30%
DK/NR
42%
52%
29%
Strongly Disagree
40%
12%
50%
60%
30%
70%
80%
6%
90%
100%
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Demographics Gender
Male 65%
Location Urban 42%
Province / Female 35% / Rural 58%
Punjab Sindh KP Baluchistan
56% 24% 14% 06%
Age 18-25 26-40 41-50 51+
24% 50% 15% 11%
Education Illiterate Primary Middle Secondary Intermediate Graduate Master’s
26% 18% 16% 23% 09% 07% 02%
Language Urdu Punjabi Pashto Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Balochi Other
08% 44% 14% 14% 12% 04% 04% 01%
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Survey Methodology • Data was collected by the IPOR Consulting under the supervision of Global Strategic Partners (GSP). • The sample consisted of 4,540 interviews and has a confidence interval of ±1.5% at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95%. The response rate was 71%. • The sample was distributed in 73 Districts of all four provinces of Pakistan (except the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Chitral). The survey is a nationally representative sample of voting-age residents of Pakistan, age 18 and above. The data collection concluded in September 2017. The interviews were all in-person and in-home. • A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province and divided into rural and urban categories. In the third stage, each district was further stratified by union councils. • Interview teams were comprised of both males and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. • The Probability-Proportional-to-Size (PPS) method was used to select localities and household were selected through “Random Walk Method”. After a random starting point was selected, the Left Hand Rule (LHR) was used and then a skip pattern where every nth household were selected for interviews. The Kish Grid was used to select respondents 18 years and older within these randomly selected households. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.
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