The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Macroeconomics In Open Economies

Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies Complete Markets and Producer Currency Pricing Simon P. Lloyd [email protected] University of Cambridge

August 2014

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Main Results: Corsetti et al. (2010) Complete Markets, Cooperation and Producer Currency Pricing I I

Full insurance across all possible contingencies across borders. Full exchange rate pass through → Endogenous movements in exchange rate correct relative price misalignments, preventing price dispersion for the same

I

good across borders. Optimal Policy: ‘Divine Coincidence’ F F

Efficient Shocks: Completely stabilise domestic GDP deflator and output gap. Inefficient Shocks: Flexible Inflation Target → Trade off fluctuations in the GDP deflator and the output gap.

Breaking the ’Divine Coincidence’ I

Complete Markets, Cooperation and Local Currency Pricing

I

Complete Markets and Strategic Interaction

I

Incomplete Markets

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Outline: Complete Markets and PCP

1

Reprise of the Model (Corsetti et al., 2010)

2

A Familiarisation with the MATLAB/Dynare Code

3

Complete Markets, Cooperation and Producer Currency Pricing

4

I

Productivity and Preference Shocks

I

Markup Shocks

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’ - Strategic Interaction

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Three Key Points b = 0. Complete Markets ⇒ Perfect Risk Sharing ⇒ D PCP ⇒ Full exchange rate pass through Exchange Rate Depreciation ↑ εt ⇒ ToT Worsening ↑ Tt =

εt PF∗,t PH,t

Exchange rate movements a substitute for product price flexibility in fostering international relative price adjustment vis-`a-vis macroeconomic shocks. New Keynesian Phillips Curve πH,t − βEt πH,t+1

=

  (1 − αβ)(1 − α) h bH,t − Y˜ fb + µ (η + σ) Y bt H,t α(1 + θη)  i −(1 − aH )2aH (σφ − 1) Tbt − T˜tfb

The international transmission of shocks depends critically on whether σφ > 1 (home and foreign goods substitutes) or σφ < 1 (complements). Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Households

Two countries: {H, F }. Complete specialisation in production of tradable. For policy analysis: I

Countries are symmetric: n = 1 − n and aH = aF∗ ≡ 1 − aH∗ .

I

Cashless economies M = 0.

Utility function for a consumer j in country H: (∞ " #) Z n j 1−σ 1+η X − 1 C 1 y (h) t −η t V j = E0 ζC ,t − ζ dh 1−σ n 0 Y ,t 1 + η t=0

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

(1)

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Consumption basket:  Ct =

φ−1

1/φ aH CH φ

+

φ−1 φ

1/φ aF CF

φ  φ−1

where: θ # θ−1 "  Z 1/θ n θ−1 1 Ct (h, j) θ dh CH,t (j) ≡ n 0 θ # θ−1 "  Z 1/θ n θ−1 1 CF ,t (j) ≡ Ct (f , j) θ df n 0

with θ > φ. φ: ‘Trade elasticity’ - Elasticity of substitution between CH and CF . θ: ‘Brand elasticity’ - Elasticity of substitution between brands of the same good. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Intra-temporal Household Optimisation Utility-based CPI for country H: 1 h i 1−φ 1−φ Pt = aH PH,t + (1 − aH )PF1−φ ,t

(2)

where PH,t and PF ,t are sub-indexes, respectively defined as: PH,t

1  Z n  1−θ 1 1−θ ≡ Pt (h) dh n 0



, PF ,t

1 ≡ 1−n

Z

1  1−θ

n 1−θ

Pt (f )

df

0

Demand by individual j in country H: I

For brand h of good H:  Ct (h, j) = aH

I

Pt (h) PH,t

−θ 

PH,t Pt

−φ

Ctj

(3)

For brand f of good F :  Ct (f , j) = (1 − aH )

Simon P. Lloyd

Pt (f ) PF ,t

−θ 

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

PF ,t Pt

−φ

Ctj August 2014

(4)

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Inter-temporal Household Optimisation Individual flow budget constraint for representative home agent under complete markets: Z BH,t+1 + qH,t (st+1 )BH,t (st+1 )dst+1 ≤ (1 + it )BH,t + BH,t R Pt (h)yt (h)dh +(1 − τt ) − PH,t Tt − PH,t CH,t − CF ,t PF ,t n Inter-temporal Euler Equation: " # −σ Ct+1 Ct−σ ζC ,t = (1 + it )Et βζC ,t+1 Pt Pt+1

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

(5)

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Goods Market Clearing Production Function: η

yt (h) = ζY1+η ,t lt (h)

(6)

Total Real Cost: −

η

tct = wt ζY ,t1+η yt (h) where wt is the real wage. The real marginal cost is given by: −

η

mct = wt ζY ,t1+η

(7)

Goods Market Equilibrium: yt (h) = ytd (h) ≡

Simon P. Lloyd



Pt (h) PH,t

−θ 

PH,t Pt

−φ

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

[aH Ct + (1 − aH )Ct∗ ]

August 2014

(8)

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Price Setting: PCP PCP: Price rigid in currency of producers ⇒ Firms set Pt (h) for domestic markets and set export prices in domestic currency εt Pt∗ (h). α = α∗ ∈ [0, 1) cannot change nominal price; 1 − α reset price optimally. The home firm’s problem can be written:  ∞  X UC ,t+s s (1 − τt+s ) max∗ Et (αβ) Pt+s {pt (h),εt pt (h)} s=0 "  −θ  −φ pt (h) PH,t+s × pt (h) (aH Ct+s ) PH,t+s Pt+s  !−θ  −φ ∗ ∗  P ε p (h) t H,t+s t ∗  +εt pt∗ (h) (1 − aH )Ct+s ∗ ∗ εt+s PH,t+s Pt+s −V (yt+s|t (h), ζY ,t+s ) subject to its demand function. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Taking first-order conditions with respect to pt (h) and εt pt∗ (h) yields:   ∞ X θ UC ,t+s s Pt (h) − Vy (yt+s|t (h), ζY ,t+s ) Et (αβ) Pt+s (1 − τt+s )(θ − 1) s=0 " #) −θ  −φ Pt (h) PH,t+s × (aH Ct+s ) = 0 (9) PH,t+s Pt+s

Et

∞ X

s

(αβ)

s=0

Simon P. Lloyd

 θ UC ,t+s ∗ εt Pt (h) − Vy (yt+s|t (h), ζY ,t+s ) Pt+s (1 − τt+s )(θ − 1)   !−θ  −φ ∗  ∗  P ε P (h) t t H,t+s ∗  = 0 (10) × (1 − a )C H t+s ∗ ∗  εt+s PH,t+s Pt+s



Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Since all producers that reset their price in period t will choose the same price level, there are two equations that describe the dynamic evolution of PH,t and PF ,t : PH,t 1−θ = αPH,t−1 1−θ + (1 − α)Pt (h)

1−θ

(11)

1−θ

PF∗,t 1−θ = α∗ PF∗,t−1 1−θ + (1 − α∗ )Pt∗ (f ) where α∗ = α.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

(12)

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Exchange Rate Determination Intimately linked with the structure of international asset markets. Complete Markets: Price equalisation in market for state contingent claims BH,t implies perfect international risk sharing: Ct∗ −σ ζC∗ ,t Ct−σ ζC ,t = Pt εt Pt∗ Using the definition of the real exchange rate Qt = Qt =

Ct∗ −σ ζC∗ ,t Ct−σ ζC ,t



εt Pt∗ Pt ,

this becomes:

UC (Ct∗ , ζC∗ ,t ) UC (Ct , ζC ,t )

(13)

⇒ Home per capita consumption can only rise relative to foreign per capita income if the real exchange rate depreciates.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Dynare File dyn 01 pcp cm coop.mod

See Guide to MATLAB Files for a complete description. Code includes productivity (zt), preference (psi) and markup (tow) shocks. Key to differing international transmission of markup shocks is the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods (φ = phi = elas sub), on line 107. We consider three values of elas sub: 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7 (low, mid, high). Important to change activated commands on lines 560-576 when changing the parameterisation of elas sub. dyn 01 pcp cm coop news.mod - Code for ‘anticipated’ productivity shocks.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

MATLAB File figs 01 transmission pcp.m

Code to produce the international transmission of exogenous shocks: I

Section 1: Home Productivity (Positive)

I

Section 2: Home Preferences (Positive)

I

Section 3: Home Markups (Negative)

Must run dyn 01 pcp cm coop.mod for elas sub equal to 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7 respectively, saving each impulse response under a different name (e.g. ... low; ... mid; and ... high). Must ensure that load(·) commands include valid file directories. figs 01 transmission news.m - Code for ‘anticipated’ productivity shock IRFs.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Efficiency

Efficiency requires perfect risk sharing and full exchange rate pass through (ERPT) Complete Markets ⇒ Perfect Risk Sharing I

Dt : Welfare relevant measure of cross-country demand imbalance  σ  ∗  Ct 1 ζC ,t Dt = Ct∗ Qt ζC ,t

I

bt = 0. The marginal utility of Under complete markets, Dt = 1 ⇒ D consumption is equalised across borders.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

PCP ⇒ Full ERPT I I

b H,t = ∆ b F ,t = 0. No deviations from the law of one price (LOOP): ∆ A monetary expansion that causes a nominal exchange rate depreciation (↑ εt ) will... F

Reduce the price of home exports to the foreign economy in terms of foreign currency: 1 εt P t (h) ↑εt+s Increase the price of foreign imports in the domestic economy in terms of ∗ ↓Pt+s (h) =

F

domestic currency:



↑Pt+s (f ) = ↑εt+s F

In turn, this will worsen the terms of trade: ↑Tt =

I

P t (f ) εt

↑εt PF∗,t ↓PH,t

Nominal exchange rate movements have expenditure switching effects: a home depreciation switches home and foreign demand in favour of home goods.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

New Keynesian Phillips Curves Inflation dynamics under PCP and CM are summarised by two NKPCs: πH,t − βEt πH,t+1

=

πF∗ ,t − βEt πF∗ ,t+1

=

  (1 − αβ)(1 − α) h bH,t − Y˜ fb + µ (η + σ) Y bt H,t α(1 + θη)  i −(1 − aH )2aH (σφ − 1) Tbt − T˜tfb   (1 − αβ)(1 − α) h bF ,t − Y˜ fb + µ (η + σ) Y b∗t F ,t α(1 + θη) i  +(1 − aH )2aH (σφ − 1) Tbt − T˜tfb

A policy that improves the home terms of trade (↓ Tt ) [e.g. an increase in foreign output] can increase or decrease home marginal costs and inflation. ⇒ The international transmission of shocks depends critically on whether σφ > 1 (home and foreign goods substitutes) or σφ < 1 (complements).

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Two opposing channels: I

Wages a function of import prices: Improved terms of trade



↓ Price of imports



↓ Home wages (marginal costs)



↓ Home prices and inflation ⇒ Symmetry

Dominant when H and F are complements (σφ < 1). I

Portfolio channel in complete markets: ↑ Foreign output



↑ Income on home portfolios



↑ Home consumption for given relative prices



↑ Home wages (marginal costs)



↑ Home prices and inflation ⇒ Opposite

Dominant when H and F are substitutes (σφ > 1).

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

The Optimal Policy Problem Cooperation, commitment, timeless perspective and monopolistic distortions offset by appropriate subsidies:   2 1 PCP−CM fb bH,t Lt n − (σ + η) Y˜H,t −Y 2  2 bF ,t +(σ + η) Y˜Ffb,t − Y θα(1 + θη) θα(1 + θη) π2 + π2 (1 − αβ)(1 − α) H,t (1 − αβ)(1 − α) F ,t  2  fb b ˜ +2aH (1 − aH )(σφ − 1)Φ Tt − Tt

+

This loss is minimised subject to NKPCs, choosing πH,t , πF∗ ,t , YˆH,t , YˆF ,t .

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Key: Under CM, the output gap and Tt misalignment are linearly related, implying no trade-off between stabilising international relative prices and output gaps across countries.   i   h bF ,t − Y˜ fb bH,t − Y˜ fb − Y T˜tfb − Tbt = Φ−1 Y H,t F ,t Cross-country sum and difference targeting rules simplify to two independent country-specific rules in terms of the output gap and domestic inflation only: h   i bH,t − Y˜ fb − Y bH,t−1 − Y˜ fb 0 = + θπH,t Y H,t H,t−1 h   i bF ,t − Y˜ fb − Y bF ,t−1 − Y˜ fb 0 = + θπF∗ ,t Y F ,t F ,t−1

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

The Optimal Policy Prescription Optimal monetary policy under cooperation, complete markets and producer currency pricing is identical to that in the baseline closed economy one-sector model with flexible wages (Woodford, 2003, Chapter 6). Foreign shocks are relevant to domestic policy only to the extent that they influence the domestic output gap and inflation. Crucial distinction between efficient and inefficient shocks: I

Efficient Shocks: Set GDP deflator inflation to zero to keep output gap closed at all times. Nominal and real exchange rates will fluctuate with these shocks and adjust international relative prices without creating any policy trade-offs.

I

Inefficient Shocks: Partially accommodate such shocks in the short run. The response of output gaps and inflation will be shaped by the nature of cross-border spillovers.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Efficient Shock: Productivity Figure : PCP - CM - Cooperation - Home Productivity Increase under Optimal Policy

φ = 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 in the first, second and third columns respectively. σ = 2 in all columns. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Inefficient Shock: Markups Figure : PCP - CM - Cooperation - Home Markup Decrease under Optimal Policy

φ = 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 in the first, second and third columns respectively. σ = 2 in all columns. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Substitutes σφ > 1: Home terms of trade depreciation raises marginal costs for foreign producers. I

Foreign monetary policy contracts to counteract the rise in foreign inflation.

I

Negative co-movement between home and foreign output gap, inflation and monetary stance.

Complements σφ < 1: Home terms of trade depreciation causes foreign marginal costs to fall with better import prices. I

Favourable ‘cost-push’ shock for foreign producers.

I

Foreign monetary policy partially accommodates this by expanding.

I

Positive co-movement between home and foreign output gap, inflation and monetary stance.

σφ = 1: Two channels cancel ⇒ no international transmission under optimal policy.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Anticipated Home Productivity Shock Figure : PCP-CM-Coop - Anticipated Positive Home Prod. Shock under Opt. Pol.

φ = 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 in the first, second and third columns respectively. σ = 2 in all columns. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Complete Markets, Cooperation and Local Currency Pricing Complete Markets and Strategic Interaction Incomplete Markets

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Strategic Interaction

The ‘Traditional’ Story: ‘Competitive Devaluation’ I

Aim to manipulate terms of trade in order to steal markets from foreign competitors, to the benefit of domestic employment and output.

The NOEM View: More general ‘Strategic Manipulation of the Terms of Trade’ I I

Do not exclusively make domestic products cheaper. Terms of trade may move in either direction: F

Competitive Depreciation for Complements (σφ < 1).

F

Competitive Appreciation for Substitutes (σφ > 1).

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

A Negative Home Productivity Shock Contraction in the supply of home goods will appreciate the terms of trade (↓ Tt ). I

Substitutes (σφ > 1): F

Fall in domestic production will reduce dis-utility of labour for domestic workers.

F

With improved terms of trade, domestic households can acquire more units of foreign goods, which are substitutes for the domestic one.

F

Incentive to strategically appreciate the currency to reap the benefits of foreign production.

I

Complements (σφ < 1): F

Utility will fall with a marginal decrease in domestic production, even when terms of trade worsens

F

Incentive to strategically depreciate the currency to make home goods relatively cheaper abroad.

In Nash equilibrium, both countries attempt to manipulate their terms of trade. It may be self-defeating if such an attempt is matched by the policy response of the other country. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Dynare File dyn 02 pcp cm nash.mod and dyn 02 pcp cm coop.mod

Two country, Open-Loop Nash Equilibrium under CM and PCP, with the GDP deflator as policy instrument. Code includes productivity (zt), preference (psi) and markup (tow) shocks. Key to differing incentives to strategically manipulate the terms of trade is the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods (φ = phi = elas sub), on line 104. We consider two values of elas sub: 0.3 and 0.7 (low, high). Important to change activated commands on lines 473-481 when changing the parameterisation of elas sub.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

MATLAB File figs 02 transmission nash.m

Code to produce the Nash gaps (difference between Nash and cooperative solutions) for the international transmission of exogenous shocks under optimal policy: I

Section 1: Home Productivity (Positive)

I

Section 2: Home Markups (Negative)

Must run dyn 02 pcp cm nash.mod for elas sub equal to 0.3 and 0.7 respectively, saving each impulse response under a different name (e.g. ... low and ... high). Must ensure that load(·) commands include valid file directories.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Nash Gaps: Home Productivity Increase Figure : PCP - CM - Nash Gaps - Home Productivity Increase under Optimal Policy

φ = 0.3, 0.7 in the first and second columns respectively. σ = 2 in both columns. aH > 1/2. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Complements (σφ < 1): ‘Strategic Devaluation’: I

Home output opportunistically under-stabilised, overshooting the flexible-price level.

I

Achieved by depreciating the terms of trade relative to its flexible-price level in order to ‘steal’ the market from foreign producers.

Substitutes (σφ > 1): ‘Strategic Appreciation’: I

Home output over-stabilised.

I

By keeping output short of flexible-price level, home households can save on their labour efforts.

I

Domestic households can increase their consumption utility by acquiring foreign goods.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Welfare Gains from Cooperation? Because of price dispersion and relative price misalignment, the Nash allocation is welfare dominated by price stability. BUT the observed difference between the Nash and cooperative allocations is small ⇒ in welfare terms, the gains from cooperation are close to zero. There exist special cases where there are no gains from cooperation: I

Corsetti and Pesenti (2005): Symmetric Cobb-Douglas Consumption Aggregator; Logarithmic Preferences; G = 0; Only Productivity Shocks.

I

When σφ = 1, there are no cross-border spillovers via the terms of trade on marginal costs with complete markets.

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2002): Under CM, cooperation does not generate appreciable welfare gains relative to optimal stabilisation pursued by independent policymakers. No overriding consensus in the debate over the gains from international policy coordination. Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

The Model

The Code

Optimal Policy

Breaking the ‘Divine Coincidence’

Conclusion Complete Markets, Cooperation and Producer Currency Pricing I I

Full insurance across all possible contingencies across borders. Full exchange rate pass through → Endogenous movements in exchange rate correct relative price misalignments, preventing price dispersion for the same

I

good across borders. Optimal Policy: ‘Divine Coincidence’ F F

Efficient Shocks: Completely stabilise domestic GDP deflator and output gap. Inefficient Shocks: Flexible Inflation Target → Trade off fluctuations in the GDP deflator and the output gap.

Breaking the ’Divine Coincidence’ I

Complete Markets, Cooperation and Local Currency Pricing

I

Complete Markets and Strategic Interaction

I

Incomplete Markets

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

References

Corsetti, G., L. Dedola, and S. Leduc (2010): “Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies,” in Handbook of Monetary Economics, ed. by B. M. Friedman and M. Woodford, Elsevier, vol. 3 of Handbook of Monetary Economics, chap. 16, 861–933. Corsetti, G. and P. Pesenti (2005): “International dimensions of optimal monetary policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 281–305. Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (2002): “Global Implications Of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 503–535. Woodford, M. (2003): Interest and Prices, Princeton University Press.

Simon P. Lloyd

Optimal Monetary Policy: CM & PCP

August 2014

Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies

Optimal Policy. Breaking the 'Divine Coincidence'. Inter-temporal Household Optimisation. Individual flow budget constraint for representative home agent under.

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commodity-exporting economy and the rest of the world. One can think intuitively of two alternative setups. On the one hand, under the assumption of complete and frictionless asset markets, such an economy may be perfectly insured against foreign-com

Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy
Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy” ... duct experiments on a real economy solely to sharpen your econometric ... parameters vary over time.

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy - LSE Research ...
and University of Manchester for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and should not be taken to represent those of the Bank of England. †Bank of England and CfM. Email: ambrogio.cesa-b

Monetary Policy in an Estimated Open-Economy Model ...
We develop a structural model of a small open economy with gradual .... papers are estimated on data from Canada relative to the U.S., for instance, ..... ˆPd,i, ˆPdf,i ...... Lundvik, Petter (1992), “Foreign demand and domestic business cycles: 

Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy
Intuition: Activist policy also makes foreign central bank learn faster, which is bad for domestic ... Important message: Optimal policy in open economy may be very different from a closed ... Expectations taken into account. – Coordination ...

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy - LSE Research ...
where t, τ denotes the exact time (in minutes) during day t when a monetary policy event ...... The objective of this section is to provide evidence on the transmission of exogenous ...... is to recover the structural form of the above VAR, i.e.:.

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and ...
Dec 4, 2008 - high-frequency financial data ... VAR analysis: the impact of monetary policy on the economy. 4. ... Ingredients. • Use intra-daily data: 1 min (= τ).

Optimal Taxation in Life-Cycle Economies - ScienceDirect
May 31, 2002 - System Macro Meeting in Cleveland, as well as James Bullard and Kevin Lansing ... Key Words: optimal taxation; uniform taxation; life cycle.

Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel
May 21, 2009 - Universities of Bonn and Dortmund, the 2nd Oslo Workshop on Monetary ... cal nature of financial frictions affect the credit conditions for firms, the central bank .... are expressed in percentage deviations from their respective stead

Optimal Monetary Policy under Incomplete Markets and ...
complete risk$sharing, providing a rich yet tractable framework for monetary policy ...... We will show that for a big set of parameter values, this last term is relatively .... 19Our estimates of σ from long$term U.S. and U.K. GDP data, range from