Tech Manufacturing Services│Singapore January 22, 2015
COMPANY NOTE
Venture Corporation VMS SP / VENM.SI
Market Cap
Avg Daily Turnover
Free Float
US$1,628m
US$1.47m
91.5%
S$2,171m
S$1.91m
274.3 m shares
Current
S$7.90
Target
S$8.91
Prev. Target
S$8.91
Up/Downside
12.8% Conviction|
May growth resume
Notes from the Field
————————————————————————————————————————
William TNG, CFA T (65) 6210 8676 E
[email protected]
Company Visit Channel Check
Expert Opinion Customer Views
———————————————————————————————————————— Show Style "View Doc Map"
Since 3Q14, Venture’s customers have generally turned more positive. On the macro level, tailwinds in CY15 include 1) an overall improving US economy; 2) efforts to develop higher value-added manufacturing customers are starting to bear fruit, and 3) beneficial non-core gains from the stronger US$. Its share price will also be supported by its S$0.50 DPS for FY14 when the company announces its results on 27 Feb. Derived using its 6-year average forward P/E of 14x and CY16 EPS, our target price for Venture works out to S$8.91. We maintain our Add call.
Worst is over Contents WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST ....................................... 5 WHAT HAS CHANGED ....................................................... 6 OUTLOOK ............................................................................ 6 DIVIDEND TO CONTINUE ................................................. 13 VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION .......................... 14
We believe that Venture has weathered the worst from consolidation at its customers end. Going forward, while customer M&As cannot be entirely ruled out, the frequency should be low. At the same time, customers have turned more positive.
In the right direction Efforts to develop the test & measurement/medical and others segments have shown encouraging results and should continue to be a bright spot for Venture going into FY15. The outlook for the rest of the business segments has also stabilised
Price Close
102.0
8.00
99.7
7.80
97.3
7.60
95.0
7.40
92.7
7.20
90.3
7.00 2
88.0
2
Vol m
1 1 Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
52-week share price range 7.90
8.13
7.16
8.91 Current
Target
and we expect flat to slight growth scenarios for these segments. Pre-tax margin should at least be defensible as contribution from higher valueadded medical and other activities continue. Given that manufacturing costs are mainly in Malaysian ringgit and sales are entirely in US$, Venture will benefit from the stronger US$.
Strong balance sheet Its balance sheet remains in net cash (3Q14: S$165m) and we expect its free cashflow to sustain its DPS of 50 Scts, translating into an attractive 6.4% yield. The only outstanding capex relates to the Penang properties it has purchased but any spending will not be in a single lump sum. We expect its share price to re-rate in the coming weeks as investors focus their attention on the dividend.
Financial Summary
Relative to FSSTI (RHS)
8.20
Jan-14
|
Revenue (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) Price To Sales (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A 2,388 139.7 0.51 (11.3%) 16.13 0.91 0.50 6.33% 10.39 20.54 (15.9%) 1.21 7.62%
Dec-13A 2,330 127.5 0.46 (8.7%) 17.67 0.93 0.50 6.33% 10.84 31.33 (12.5%) 1.19 7.04%
Dec-14F 2,466 144.3 0.53 13.0% 15.32 0.88 0.50 6.33% 9.58 13.60 (13.7%) 1.18 7.88% 0.001% 1.02
Dec-15F 2,613 158.9 0.58 10.1% 13.65 0.83 0.50 6.33% 8.91 17.10 (12.9%) 1.17 8.62% 0.000% 1.01
Dec-16F 2,769 174.9 0.64 10.0% 12.41 0.78 0.50 6.33% 8.13 15.97 (12.6%) 1.15 9.33% 0.000% 1.02
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
PEER COMPARISON
Research Coverage Bloomberg Code 2317 TT VMS SP
Hon Hai Precision Venture Corporation
Market TW SG
Recommendation ADD ADD
Rolling P/BV (x)
20.0
1.80
18.0
1.60
16.0
1.40
14.0
1.20
12.0
1.00
10.0
0.80
8.0
0.60
6.0
0.40
4.0
0.20
Target Price 115.0 8.91
Upside 34.5% 12.8%
2.0 Jan-11
Jan-12
Hon Hai Precision
Jan-13
0.0 Jan-10
Jan-14
Venture Corporation
Peer Aggregate: P/BV vs ROE 1.80
17.05%
1.60
16.60%
1.40
16.15%
1.20
15.70%
1.00
15.25%
0.80
14.80%
0.60
14.35%
0.40
13.90%
0.20
13.45% 13.00% Jan-12
Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs)
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Venture Corporation
Peer Aggregate: 12-mth Fwd FD P/E vs FD EPS Growth 17.50%
Jan-11
Jan-11
Hon Hai Precision
2.00
0.00 Jan-10
Price 85.5 7.90
12-month Forward Rolling FD P/E (x)
2.00
0.00 Jan-10
Mkt Cap US$m 40,133 1,628
Jan-13
Jan-14
12.0
20.0%
10.0
15.8%
8.0
11.7%
6.0
7.5%
4.0
3.3%
2.0
-0.8%
0.0 Jan-10
Jan-15
ROE (See Footnote) (rhs)
-5.0% Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
12-mth Fwd FD P/E (x) (See Footnote) (lhs)
Jan-14
Jan-15
FD EPS Growth (See Footnote) (rhs)
Valuation
Hon Hai Precision Venture Corporation
FD P/E (x) (See Footnote) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 10.52 10.47 8.97 17.67 15.32 13.65
Dec-13 1.47 1.19
P/BV (x) Dec-14 1.47 1.18
Dec-15 1.30 1.17
Dec-13 5.08 10.84
EV/EBITDA (x) Dec-14 5.16 9.58
Dec-15 4.68 8.91
Dec-15 15.3% 8.6%
Dividend Yield Dec-13 Dec-14 1.75% 2.11% 6.33% 6.33%
Dec-15 2.12% 6.33%
Growth and Returns
Hon Hai Precision Venture Corporation
FD EPS Growth (See Footnote) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 1.5% 0.5% 16.8% -8.7% 15.3% 12.2%
ROE (See Footnote) Dec-13 Dec-14 15.1% 14.9% 7.0% 7.9%
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS Calculations are performed using EFA™ Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends. NPAT/EPS values for calculations and valuations are based on recurring and normalised values for GAAP and IFRS accounting standard companies respectively.
2
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
BY THE NUMBERS
Share price info Share px perf. (%)
1M
3M
Relative
3.0
1.6
Absolute
3.7
6.3
Major shareholders Aberdeen Asset
12M -3.2 3.8 % held 23.0
Sprucegrove Investment
8.0
Wong Ngit Liong
7.0
P/BV vs ROE
12-mth Fwd FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS
1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs)
12.00% 10.50% 9.00% 7.50% 6.00% 4.50% 3.00% 1.50% 0.00%
Growth 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
30% 22% 14% 6% -2% -10% -18% -26% -34% -42% -50%
12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs)
ROE (See Footnote) (rhs)
FD Core EPS Growth (rhs)
Profit & Loss Profit growth to resume as customer consolidation bottoms out
(S$m) Total Net Revenues Gross Profit Operating EBITDA Depreciation And Amortisation Operating EBIT Financial Income/(Expense) Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. Non-Operating Income/(Expense) Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) Exceptional Items Pre-tax Profit Taxation Exceptional Income - post-tax Profit After Tax Minority Interests Preferred Dividends FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax Other Adjustments - post-tax Net Profit Recurring Net Profit Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-12A 2,388 287 175 (44) 130 4 6 2 143 0 143 (4)
Dec-13A 2,330 289 172 (46) 126 0 4 5 136 0 136 (9)
Dec-14F 2,466 567 192 (41) 152 0 2 0 154 0 154 (10)
Dec-15F 2,613 601 208 (43) 165 0 4 1 170 0 170 (11)
Dec-16F 2,769 637 227 (46) 182 0 4 1 187 0 187 (12)
139 1 0
127 0 0
144 0 0
159 0 0
175 0 0
140 140 140
127 127 127
144 144 144
159 159 159
175 175 175
Cash Flow
Strong free cash flow, good working capital
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. Change In Working Capital (Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid)/Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Equity Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-12A 174.6 (6.1) (46.8)
Dec-13A 172.0 (4.4) (61.4)
Dec-14F 192.3 (2.3) (0.2)
Dec-15F 207.7 (4.0) (39.0)
Dec-16F 227.3 (4.0) (41.5)
8.7 4.2 (1.3) 133.2 (29.6) 6.1 35.0 (1.3) 10.2 (33.8) (0.6) 0.0 (150.9)
16.6 0.3 (3.9) 119.3 (34.9) 1.5 (3.0) 0.2 (36.2) (11.1) 3.6 0.0 (137.5)
17.2 0.3 (8.1) 199.1 (35.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.5) (36.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (137.4)
2.5 0.3 (10.2) 157.4 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.5) (31.5) 1.0 0.0 0.0 (137.4)
2.4 0.3 (11.2) 173.4 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 (8.5) (38.5) 1.0 0.0 0.0 (137.4)
(9.7) (195.0) (51.5) 109.7 145.1
10.2 (134.8) (51.8) 71.9 84.2
0.0 (137.4) 25.2 162.6 163.8
0.0 (136.4) (10.5) 126.9 127.0
0.0 (136.4) (1.4) 135.9 136.1
SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY
3
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
BY THE NUMBERS
Balance Sheet
Balance sheet in net cash
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
Dec-12A 453 463 497 0 1,414 139 96 718 5 959 167
Dec-13A 391 562 528 0 1,481 153 101 701 7 961 162
Dec-14F 414 649 520 0 1,583 167 139 640 0 946 162
Dec-15F 403 687 551 0 1,642 174 126 640 0 939 163
Dec-16F 402 728 584 0 1,714 179 120 640 0 938 164
544 7 714 0
577 7 747 0
0 0 10 724 1,856 2 1,858
0 0 10 757 1,893 2 1,895
384 8 559 0
435 6 603 0
0 0 14 573 1,797 2 1,800
0 0 10 613 1,827 2 1,829
513 7 682 0 0 0 0 10 692 1,834 2 1,836
Dec-12A (1.84%) (11.5%) 7.31% 1.04 6.55 80.6 2.74% 105% 69.98 88.1 54.02 9.0% 6.68%
Dec-13A (2.44%) (1.5%) 7.38% 0.84 6.66 108.1 6.60% 111% 74.75 91.7 55.79 8.8% 6.43%
Dec-14F 5.86% 11.8% 7.80% 0.92 6.68 129.6 6.60% 89% 83.50 100.7 71.17 10.0% 7.64%
Dec-15F 5.96% 8.0% 7.95% 0.88 6.75 140.7 6.60% 81% 87.47 97.2 75.73 11.3% 8.23%
Dec-16F 5.97% 9.4% 8.21% 0.87 6.89 155.3 6.60% 73% 87.70 97.4 75.93 12.1% 8.94%
Dec-12A -2.0% 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dec-13A -1.0% 11.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dec-14F 0.0% 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dec-15F 0.0% 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dec-16F 0.0% 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Key Ratios
Margins to improve on higher valueadded manufacturing activities
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
Revenue growth driven by better US economy, customers turning more positive
ASP Change (%, Main Product) Unit sales growth (%, main prod) No. Of Lines (main Product) Rev per line (US$, main prod) ASP chg (%, 2ndary prod) Unit sales grth (%, 2ndary prod) No. Of Lines (secondary Product) Rev per line (US$, 2ndary prod)
SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY
4
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
May growth resume WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST Affected by customer consolidations Post its profit rebound in FY10 following the GFC, Venture has experienced three years of profit decline. That said, the good news is that the rate of decline has slowed. Over FY11-13, other than the broad economic weakness which affected business demand from its customers, Venture was an unfortunate victim of the global trend towards consolidation. The downside to customer consolidation has been delays in placing of orders as customers worked out their own integration. But the silver lining is that Venture has not lost any customer and has in fact made inroads into acquiring companies that were previously not customers. The key M&As that affected Venture were: 1) Toshiba Tech's acquisition of an existing customer, IBM’s POS business
‘‘
I am confident that as the global economy returns to growth, the group’s efforts over the past several years to broaden its market share and customer base, and to deepen its knowledge and domain technology will pay real dividends. Wong Ngit Liong Chairman & CEO
2) Intended split of Agilent into two entities (completed in Nov 2014), one to focus on life sciences, diagnostics and applied markets (using the existing Agilent name) and the other to focus on electronic measurement devices (using the name Keysight) 3) Sale of an existing customer, Hypercom, to VeriFone 4) Delays in production transfer to Venture as a customer, Oclaro, bought competitor Opnext 5) Honeywell's purchase of Intermec.
Figure 1: Declining net profit (S$m)
Figure 2: % decline has moderated
160.0
0.0
155.0
(2.0)
150.0
(4.0)
145.0
(6.0)
FY11
140.0
Title: Source:
FY12
FY13
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
(8.0)
135.0
(10.0)
130.0
(12.0)
125.0 (14.0) 120.0 (16.0) 115.0 FY11
FY12
FY13
(18.0)
Net profit (S$m)
yoy % chg
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
5
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
WHAT HAS CHANGED The dust has settled The weak customer demand and ongoing consolidation continued to affect Venture going into 1H14. However, we sense that the inflexion point was reached somewhere in 3Q14 when some stability seems to have returned to the business. While customer sentiment has not been euphoric, Venture is getting generally positive vibes from its customers. The transfer of manufacturing requirements by Oclaro Venture’s facilities is also largely competed. At the same time, the frequency of customer consolidation may be lesser. Figure 3: Outlook statement and actual performance in subsequent quarters Outlook statement 4Q13 Several sectors in the industry have shown early signs of recovery. However the pace of recovery in some other
Actual results next quarter Sales grew 11.4% yoy, fell 5.1% qoq. Net profit grew 9.9% yoy, fell 19% qoq.
sectors remains unclear. The Group expects to gain traction with several strategic customers, as well as benefit from growing revenue contribution from customers won in recent years. 1Q14 Business sentiment of most customers has generally been positive. The Group also expects growing revenue
Sales grew 2.3% yoy and 1.7% qoq. Net profit grew 11.4% yoy and 8.9% qoq.
contribution from customers won in recent years, as well as from new programmes with a number of existing customers. However it remains too early to project a broad-based sustainable recovery. 2Q14 Business sentiment of most of the Group’s customers has been Sales grew 1.7% yoy but fell 0.4% qoq. generally positive. However, continued M&A and
Net profit grew 3.0% yoy and 7.8% qoq.
consolidation activities among some of the Group’s customers may present some short-term uncertainty. Nevertheless, the Group continues to pursue opportunities to grow with the merged entities. 3Q14 Whilst business sentiment of most of the Group’s customers is
Results not announced yet.
generally positive, a number of areas of concern remain. Wage pressures may persist and customer consolidation is expected to continue though it may be less frequent. SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
OUTLOOK Test & measurement/medical/others segments a bright spot Venture has spent the past few years actively pursuing the life sciences industry (classified under the above-mentioned segment). Today, we believe that the group has made contact with most of the key players in this industry. We also believe that some of such efforts have come to fruition in 3Q14/9M14 results where the test & measurement/medical/others segments were the only segments to witness strong growth. Customers continue to have new products to launch. The Test & Measurement/medical/others segment accounted for 32% of 9M14 sales.
6
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Figure 4: Yoy sales growth by segment (3Q)
Figure 5: Yoy sales growth by segment (9M)
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
A key customer in this segment is Agilent Technologies (A US). The split into two companies (completed in Nov 2014), Agilent and Keysight Technologies (KEYS US) could sow the seeds for stronger growth for these two companies. This in turn could translate into more business opportunities for Venture. Figure 6: Consensus expectations for Agilent
Figure 7: Consensus expectations for Keysight
FY15F
FY16F
FY17F
FY15F
FY16F
FY17F
Sales (US$m)
4,142
4,324
4,539
Sales (US$m)
3,009
3,114
3,228
yoy growth (%)
na
4
5
yoy growth (%)
na
3
4
498
574
534
367
394
453
na
15
(7)
na
7
Net profit (US$m) yoy growth (%)
Net profit (US$m) yoy growth (%)
SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
15 SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
In its FY13 annual report, Venture revealed that it is working in close collaboration with a top player in life science, culminating in its customer’s launch of the first high-throughput desktop genome sequencer. Since its appointment to the project in 2012, the group has worked diligently at meeting the rigorous requirements of its OEM partner for a desktop form factor to bring DNA/RNA sequencing – with high-throughput speed, sample-size flexibility, push-button simplicity and affordability – to individual researchers. Based on our channel checks, we believe that Illumina is one of Venture’s customers in the life sciences space. Illumina Inc (ILMN US) Illumina is a leading developer, manufacturer, and marketer of life science tools and integrated systems for large-scale analysis of genetic variation and function. These systems are enabling studies that were not even imaginable just a few years ago, moving humanity closer to the realisation of personalised medicine. Its customers include a broad range of academic, government, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and other leading institutions around the globe. Figure 8: Consensus expectations and the company's outlook FY13A
FY14F
FY15F
FY16F
Sales (US$m)
1,421
1,855
2,258
2,687
yoy growth (%)
na
31
22
19
125
298
417
512
na
138
40
23
Net profit (US$m) yoy growth (%) Outlook statement
As a result of strong year-to-date results, the Company has increased its full year 2014 guidance to revenue growth of approximately 30% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per fully diluted share of $2.63 to $2.65. SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, COMPANY REPORTS
7
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Figure 9: Example of a genome sequencer
The NextSeq 500 desktop sequencing system provides the flexible power and simplicity you need to analyse whole genomes, exomes, and transcriptomes. SOURCES: ILLUMINA WEBSITE
Other segments have stabilised Although we do not see ‘explosive’ growth in the other business segments, we do believe that conditions have stabilised, allowing for a flat to slight growth scenario. Networking and communications (17% of 9M14 sales) The key customers in this segment include Oclaro (OCLR US) and Verifone (PAY US). Oclaro is a leader in optical components, modules and subsystems for the core optical, enterprise and data centre, and wireless access markets. Leveraging more than three decades of laser technology innovation, photonic integration, transceiver and subsystem design, Oclaro's solutions are at the heart of the fast optical networks and high-speed interconnects driving the next wave of streaming video, cloud computing, voice over IP, SaaS and other high-speed and bandwidth-intensive applications. Top-tier customers that Oclaro partner with include ADVA Optical Networking, Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Coriant, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Juniper Networks and ZTE Figure 10: Product examples
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
Oclaro is loss-making currently and the market expects the company’s loss to narrow from US$48m in FY6/14 to US$16m in FY6/16. Oclaro is in a net cash position. Given its loss situation, Oclaro has strong motivation to lower its costs by engaging quality EMS companies such as Venture.
8
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
VeriFone is a leading global provider of technology that enables electronic payment transactions and value-added services at the point of sale. Its system solutions consist of point-of-sale electronic payment devices that run its proprietary operating systems, security and encryption software and certified payment software as well as third-party, value-added applications. Capabilities include processing a wide range of payment types including signature and PIN-based debit cards, credit cards, contactless/radio frequency identification, or RFID, cards, smart cards, pre-paid gift and other stored-value cards, electronic bill payment, cheque authorisation and conversion, signature capture and electronic benefits transfer. Its customers are primarily global financial institutions, payment processors, petroleum companies, large retailers, government organisations and healthcare companies, as well as independent sales organisations, or ISOs. Figure 11: Product examples – multimedia and countertop solutions
Figure 12: Product examples – portable solutions
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
Figure 13: Consensus expectations for VeriFone
Figure 14: VeriFone's guidance
FY15F
FY16F
FY17F
Sales (US$m)
2,034
2,209
2,458
yoy growth (%)
na
9
11
Net profit (US$m)
40
89
126
yoy growth (%)
na
122
Non-GAAP diluted EPS (US$) Non-GAAP revenue (US$m)
FY14A
FY15
1,871
2,020 to 2,040. + 8% to 9%
1.51
1.85 - 1.90, + 23% to 26%
42 SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
Retail store solutions and industrial products (30% of 9M14 sales) Under the retail store solutions segment, the key customers are Toshiba TEC (which acquired customer IBM POS), NCR Corporation (NCR US) and MICROS (which was acquired by Oracle). Although POS terminals are due for a replacement cycle in the US, retailers are still approaching the replacement cycle both cautiously and on a piece meal basis. Toshiba TEC (6588 JP) itself is not expecting much growth in the POS market. NCR in its 3Q14 earnings release lowered its FY14 revenue guidance. In terms of the operating environment, NCR said that the retail markets remained challenging with weak same store sales and noted that data security concerns were shifting IT priorities, resources and capital spending. On 23 Jun 2014, Oracle announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire MICROS Systems, Inc, a provider of integrated software and hardware solutions to the hospitality and retail industries. The acquisition has been completed. Oracle believes that cloud, mobile, social, big data and the Internet of things are impacting every industry, encouraging companies to modernise in order to compete effectively. MICROS extends Oracle's offerings in industries by combining MICROS's industry-specific applications with Oracle's business applications, technologies and cloud portfolio. It is unlikely that Oracle will change MICROS's suppliers as the former’s expertise is in software and its intention is to further penetrate the services industry.
9
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Figure 16: …but Toshiba TEC is still the leader
Figure 15: POS unit sales expected to weaken…
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
Figure 17: Consensus expectations for Toshiba TEC FY15F
FY16F
FY17F
Sales (JPY bn)
533.4
551.7
566.7
yoy growth (%)
na
3.4
2.7
14.0
18.2
19.7
na
30.6
Net profit (JPY bn) yoy growth (%)
8.0 SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
Figure 18: NCR's guidance
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
In the industrial products segment, the key customers are Waters Corporation (WAT US) and ABB (ABB SS). Waters Corporation, founded in 1958 by James L. Waters and headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts, US, is the world's leading supplier of ultra performance liquid chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry, thermal analysis and rheology instrumentation and consumables. Around the world, Waters's products are used by players involved in such industries and academia as pharmaceutical, biotechnology, industrial, university, and government research & development, 10
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
quality assurance, and environmental testing laboratories. The company's largest single market is the pharmaceutical industry. On the outlook, the group noted slower activities in the China market but was confident that pharmaceutical demand would remain strong in the coming quarters. ABB is a global leader in power and automation technologies. Based in Zurich, Switzerland, ABB is the largest supplier of industrial motors and drives. It is also the largest provider of generators to the wind industry and the largest supplier of power grids in the world. Figure 19: Consensus expectations for Waters
Figure 20: Consensus expectations for ABB
FY14F
FY15F
FY16F
FY14F
FY15F
FY16F
Sales (US$m)
1,987
2,063
2,164
Sales (US$m)
40,407
40,499
41,893
yoy growth (%)
na
4
5
yoy growth (%)
na
0.2
3.4
435
478
511
2,701
3,114
3,480
na
10
7
na
15
Net profit (US$m) yoy growth (%)
Net profit (US$m) yoy growth (%)
SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
12 SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
Printing & imaging (11.6% of 9M14 sales) In Oct last year, HP (HPQ US) announced plans to separate into two new publicly traded companies: one comprising HP's market-leading enterprise technology infrastructure, software and services businesses, which will do business as Hewlett-Packard Enterprise; and one that will comprise HP's market-leading personal systems and printing businesses, which will do business as HP Inc. The transaction is scheduled to be completed by the end of fiscal 2015. HP Inc will also investing in new growth areas such as 3D printing. The split could benefit HP’s printer division which has been facing limited growth in the past few quarters. Figure 21: Consensus expectations for HP
Figure 22: HP printing sales and growth
FY15F
FY16F
FY17F
Sales (US$m)
109,644
109,455
108,666
yoy growth (%)
na
-0.2
-0.7
6.1
4.0 3.0
6 2.0
Net profit (US$m) yoy growth (%)
6,098
6,405
6,777
na
5
6
5.9
1.0 0.0
5.8
(1.0) 5.7
(2.0) (3.0)
5.6
(4.0)
5.5 (5.0) 5.4
(6.0) 3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
Revenue (US$ bn)
SOURCES: BLOOMBERG
11
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
qoq growth (%)
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Computer peripherals and data storage (9.4% of 9M14 sales) In Sep 13, Honeywell completed its acquisition of Intermec. Intermec, a leading provider of mobile computing, radio frequency identification solutions (RFID), voice-enabled workflow and data-collection solutions, and printing solutions, was a customer of Venture. Although the enlarged entity presents larger revenue opportunities for Venture, progress has been relatively muted. Figure 23: Scanner products by Intermec
Scanner products by Intermec General Duty Scanners » Designed for small to medium sized businesses, Intermec general duty scanners offer simple, reliable and affordable scanning for day-to-day operations.
Healthcare Scanners » Securely collect and track patient information, reduce medical errors, and improve staff productivity with Intermec healthcare scanners.
Pocket Scanners » Rugged, industrial products with Bluetooth® communication to disentangle from the cable but stay securely connected.
Rugged Scanners » The convenience of scanning automation, with features you need, at the right price.
Scanner Accessories » Accomplish more, with these scanner accessories developed specifically for use with Intermec bar code scanners.
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
Margins have bottomed Margins have been on the mend as customers affected by M&A activities concluded their acquisitions, allowing the order flow to resume. At the same time, Venture’s pursuit of higher value-add activities in the test & measurement/medical/others has begun to bear fruit. Barring further M&As and product delays, we believe that margins should have bottomed and should stage a gradual recovery.
12
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Figure 24: Quarterly pre-tax margin trend 7.50%
6.92%
7.00%
6.84%
6.73% 6.50%
6.20%
6.10% 6.00%
6.04% 5.86%
5.79%
5.73% 5.46%
5.50%
5.71%
5.37%
5.00% 4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
DIVIDEND TO CONTINUE Strong free cashflow Venture has an established track record of managing its balance sheet prudently. Over the past 10 years, Venture has paid a DPS of S$0.50 other than S$0.55 for FY10-11. Careful capex spending and not growing blindly have led to strong free cashflows for Venture. Venture has outstanding capex relating to the purchase of a plot of land comprising a factory building amounting to S$12.8m of which S$6.4m has been paid. The balance is only payable upon the completion of the associated terms and conditions. That said, we estimate that Venture’s capacity utilisation is in the 70-80% range and the group has a history of extracting higher productivity. Figure 25: Free cashflow trend 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0
0.0 FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
9MFY14
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
13
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
WATCH OUT FOR Higher effective tax rates Venture’s effective tax rate has been on the rise. This is especially notable in 9M14. The rise is due to prudent tax provisions ahead of negotiations for renewal of tax concessions. Going forward, effective tax rates could hover in the 10-11% range as tax authorities are now awarding tax incentives based on activities that they want to grow rather than a blanket concession across all activities. Figure 26: Effective tax rate on the rise 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION We expect Venture to meet CY14 consensus and our net profit estimates. Fundamentally, the worst appears to be over for Venture and CY15 should see tailwinds from the strong US$ (as an exporter, Venture sales are in US$, while operating costs are in domestic currency, mainly the Malaysian ringgit). Interest in the stock is generally higher in the Feb period when the market buys ahead to enjoy the expected DPS of S$0.50. Pegged at a CY16 P/E of 14x or the 6-year average forward P/E, our target price works out to S$8.91. We maintain our Add call.
Figure 27: Peers Comparison
Company Venture Corporation CalComp Electronics Foxconn International Hon Hai Precision US Benchmark Electronics Celestica Inc Flextronics International Jabil Circuit Plexus Corp Sanmina-SCI Corp Simple Average (US)
Bloomberg Ticker
Add NR NR Add
Price (lcl curr) 7.90 3.28 3.55 85.50
Target Price (lcl curr) 8.91 NA NA 115.0
Market Cap (US$ m) 1,628 431 3,567 40,133
Recom.
VMS SP CCET TB 2038 HK 2317 TT
BHE US CLS US FLEX US JBL US PLXS US SANM US
NR NR NR NR NR NR
24.12 11.27 10.86 20.59 40.03 22.89
NA NA NA NA NA NA
1,281 1,967 6,288 3,978 1,346 1,888
Simple Average (all co)
Core P/E (x) CY2014 CY2015 15.0 13.7 10.0 8.6 22.2 16.1 10.5 9.0
3-year EPS CAGR (%) 8.7% na 45.4% 6.9%
P/BV (x) CY2014 1.18 0.81 0.89 1.47
Recurring ROE (%) CY2014 8.2% 7.9% 4.0% 15.1%
Dividend Yield (%) CY2014 6.3% 5.0% 0.0% 2.1%
14.7 11.3 18.1 17.3 15.5 9.6 14.4
13.8 10.9 10.1 9.7 12.5 10.1 11.2
-3.7% na 28.1% 13.6% 12.6% 23.4% 14.8%
1.01 1.26 2.63 1.74 1.68 1.48 1.63
6.6% 7.7% 17.2% 11.7% 12.1% 15.6% 11.8%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
14.4
11.4
na
1.41
10.6%
1.5%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS, BLOOMBERG
14
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Figure 28: Factory details
Figure 29: Factory details (continued)
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
15
SOURCES: COMPANY REPORTS
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
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Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
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Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
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Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
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Investment Banking clients (%)
Add
58.4%
6.0%
Hold
29.4%
4.3%
Reduce
12.2%
1.0%
Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data ) Venture Corporation (VMS SP)
Hold
Neutral
Sep-13
Reduce
Underperform
Jan-14
19
Trading Buy
May-14
8.91
8.10
8.10
7.60
8.25
9.80
9.55
8.90 Recommendations & Target Price 8.70 8.50 8.30 8.10 7.90 7.70 7.50 7.30 7.10 Add Outperform 6.90 Jan-13 May-13
7.60
Price Close
Trading sell
Sep-14
Not Rated
Venture Corporation│Singapore January 22, 2015
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (Thai IOD) in 2014. AAV – Very Good, ADVANC – Very Good, AEONTS – not available, AMATA - Good, ANAN – Very Good, AOT – Very Good, AP - Good, ASK – Very Good, ASP – Very Good, BANPU – Very Good , BAY – Very Good , BBL – Very Good, BCH – not available, BCP - Excellent, BEAUTY – Good, BEC - Good, BECL – Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Good, BIGC - Very Good, BJC – Good, BLA – Very Good, BMCL - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET – Good, CENTEL – Very Good, CHG – not available, CK – Very Good, CPALL – not available, CPF – Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DEMCO – Good, DTAC – Very Good, EA - Good, ECL – not available, EGCO - Excellent, GFPT - Very Good, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Good, GRAMMY - Excellent, HANA Excellent, HEMRAJ – Very Good, HMPRO - Very Good, ICHI - not available, INTUCH - Excellent, ITD – Good, IVL - Excellent, JAS – not available, JUBILE – not available, KAMART – not available, KBANK - Excellent, KCE - Very Good, KGI – Good, KKP – Excellent, KTB - Excellent, KTC – Good, LH - Very Good, LPN – Very Good, M - not available, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO – Good, MBKET – Good, MC – Very Good, MCOT – Very Good, MEGA – Good, MINT Excellent, OFM – Very Good, OISHI – Good, PS – Very Good, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, QH – Very Good, RATCH – Very Good, ROBINS – Very Good, RS – Very Good, SAMART - Excellent, SAPPE - not available, SAT – Excellent, SAWAD – not available, SC – Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCBLIF – Good, SCC – Very Good, SCCC - Good, SIM - Excellent, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Excellent, STA – Very Good, STEC - Good, SVI – Very Good, TASCO – Good, TCAP – Very Good, THAI – Very Good, THANI – Very Good, THCOM – Very Good, THRE – not available, THREL – Good, TICON – Good, TISCO - Excellent, TK – Very Good, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE – Very Good, TTW – Very Good, TUF - Good, VGI – Very Good, WORK – not available.
CIMB Recommendation Framework Stock Ratings Definition: Add The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months. Hold The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months. Reduce The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months. The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months. Sector Ratings Overweight Neutral Underweight
Definition: An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation. A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation. An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.
Country Ratings Overweight Neutral Underweight
Definition: An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark. A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark. An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
*Prior to December 2013 CIMB recommendation framework for stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange were based on a stock’s total return relative to the relevant benchmarks total return. Outperform: expected to exceed by 5% or more over the next 12 months. Neutral: expected to be within +/-5% over the next 12 months. Underperform: expected to be below by 5% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy: expected to exceed by 3% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: expected to be below by 3% or more over the next 3 months. For stocks listed on Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Outperform: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Neutral: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. Underperform: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.
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