Main Messages 1. The global crisis is seriously affecting SSA. 2. Growth is declining quickly, while inflation is falling slowly, from a high level. 3. Fiscal and BoP pressures are emerging. 4. Downside risks continue to dominate. 5. Challenges for policymakers: • Maintaining stability and supporting demand amidst reduced external financing. • Reducing vulnerability to financial turmoil. • Not losing sight of medium-term goals.
Global growth is slowing sharply… GDP Growth by Country Groups 10
10
(in percent)
8 6
8
Emerging and developing World countries
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Advanced countries
-2 -4 1970
1978
1986
1994
2002
-2 -4 2010
Source: IMF.
… as industrial production and trade have slumped in late 2008. 15
Growth in Global Industrial Production and Trade (Annualized 3-month percent change)
Main Transmission Channels of the Crisis to Sub-Saharan Africa Declining External Demand for SSA’s Output. Slumping Commodity Prices. Scarcer Financial Flows.
2 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: IMF, WEO; and IMF, African Department database.
Policy Response •
Challenge: • Maintaining stability and supporting growth amidst reduced external inflows. • For this: • Use fiscal space judiciously, considering medium-term sustainability. • Where inflation is falling, use monetary policy to counter demand slowdown. • Develop plans for adjustment to potential shortfalls in external financing.
Role of International Community Maintain focus on the MDGs and Gleneagles commitments. Resist protectionist pressures. Strengthen international financial architecture.
Role of the Fund The IMF stands ready to play its part: Financial Support Technical Assistance Policy Advice High-level Conference in Tanzania, March 10-11.
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