LUIS GONZALO LLOSA Contact information UCLA Department of Economics 8283 Bunche Hall Los Angeles, CA 90095 Email: [email protected] Website: https://sites.google.com/site/luisgonzalollosa/

Home contact information 3275 S. Sepulveda Blvd. Apt. 104 Los Angeles, CA 90034 Phone: (310) 717-8018

EDUCATION UCLA, Ph.D. Economics, September 2012 UCLA, M.A. Economics, 2009 Universidad del Pac´ıfico (Peru), B.A. Economics, 2002 FIELDS International Economics, Macroeconomics, Time-series econometrics REFERENCES Prof. Lee Ohanian Department of Economics, UCLA 8391 Bunche Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095 Phone: (310)-825-0979 Email: [email protected]

Prof. Andrew Atkeson Department of Economics, UCLA 9381 Bunche Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095 Phone: (866) 312-9770 Email: [email protected]

Associate Prof. Ariel Burstein Department of Economics, UCLA Bunche Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095 Phone: (310) 206-6732 Email: [email protected]

Associate Prof. Pierre-Olivier Weill Department of Economics, UCLA 8355 Bunche Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095 Phone: (310) 794-6495 Email: [email protected]

RESEARCH Working papers “How do Terms of Trade affect Productivity? The role of Monopolistic Output Markets” Job Market Paper This paper analyzes how terms of trade affect aggregate productivity using a two-country monopolistic competitive business cycle model driven by aggregate technology shocks. The inefficiency of the equilibrium implies that each country’s productivity is affected by the terms of trade. This introduces a novel mechanism for business cycle synchronization. Moreover, for each country, foreign technology shocks have almost the same effects as domestic technology shocks. On the quantitative side, the model delivers a degree of business cycle synchronization that is close to the actual comovement of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world. The model also implies that for some small open economies, specially emerging economies, foreign shocks can outperform domestic shocks in explaining their business cycles. Finally, the paper provide a quantification of the influence of the terms of trade on emerging countries’ productivity and finds that it can be large. “Efficiency with Endogenous Information Choice” (with Venky Venkateswaran) We study the efficiency of equilibrium in a business cycle model where monopolistically competitive firms acquire costly information about aggregate fundamentals before making pricing and input decisions. We show that market power reduces the private value of information relative to its social value, causing too little investment in learning and inefficient cyclical fluctuations. Importantly, this is true even in an environment where the ex-post response to information is socially optimal. A leading example of this dichotomy between ex-post and ex-ante efficiency is an environment where firms choose labor input under uncertainty about aggregate productivity. When firms set nominal prices, on the other hand, their actions exhibit a inefficiently high sensitivity to private signals. The combination of this inefficiency in

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information use and market power makes the overall direction of the inefficiency in information acquisition ambiguous. Finally, we show that the standard full information policy response to market power-related distortions can reduce welfare under endogenous uncertainty. These results hold for different types of shocks (real and nominal) and for a general class of information acquisition technologies. “Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis” (with Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo, Richard Rogerson) We document large differences across OECD countries in .uctuations of the intensive and extensive margin of labor supply over the business cycle. Countries with larger fluctuations in employment relative to hours per worker tend to display larger fluctuations in total hours worked. These facts appear to be related to policies that impede the dismissal of workers. We then present a quantitative framework that features both margins of labor supply as well as costs to the adjustment of employment. Cross-country differences in dismissal costs can account for a large fraction of the patterns observed in the data. Publications “Learning about monetary policy rules when the cost-channel matters”, with Vicente Tuesta, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2009, vol. 33(11), pages 1880-1896. We study how monetary policy may affect determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium when the cost channel of monetary policy matters. Focusing on instrumental Taylor-type rules and optimal target rules, we show that standard policies can induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present. A na¨ıve application of the traditional Taylor principle could be misleading, and expectationsbased reaction function under discretion does not always induce determinate and E-stable equilibrium. This result contrasts with the findings of Bullard and Mitra (2002) and Evans and Honkapohja (2003) for the standard new Keynesian model. The ability of the central bank to commit to an optimal policy is an antidote to these problems. “Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies”, with Vicente Tuesta, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008, vol. 40(5), pages 10331063. This paper evaluates under which conditions different Taylor-type rules lead to determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium in a simple New Keynesian small open economy model, developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). In particular, we extend Bullard and Mitra (2002) results of determinacy and E-stability in a closed economy to this small open economy framework. Our results highlight an important link between the Taylor principle and both determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in small open economies. More importantly, the degree of openness coupled with the nature of the policy rule adopted by the monetary authorities might change this link in important ways. A key finding is that, contrary to Bullard and Mitra, expectations-based rules that involve the consumer price inflation and/or the nominal exchange rate limit the region of E-stability and the Taylor Principle does not guarantee E-stability. We also show that some forms of managed exchange rate rules can help to alleviate problems of both indeterminacy and expectational instability, yet these rules might not be desirable since they can promote greater volatility in the economy. Other “Peru’s Perfect Storm”, with Ugo Panizza, in Hausmann, R., E. Mor´on and F. Rodr´ıguez (eds.), The Peruvian Growth Puzzle, Harvard University Press, (forthcoming). “A BVAR forecasting model for Peruvian inflation,” with Marco Vega and Vicente Tuesta, Money Affairs, CEMLA, Vol. XIX, 2006. “Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach,” with Shirley Miller, Money Affairs, Vol. XVII, CEMLA, 2004. “Examining Policy Trade-Offs using a Structural Model”, (in Spanish) Revista Estudios Econ´ omicos, Central Reserve Bank of Peru, issue 11, 2004. Work in progress

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“Chicken Little Business Cycles” (with Chris Phelan and Lee Ohanian). “The Behavior of the Firm Size Distribution during Recessions” (with Javier Cravino). PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Inter-American Development Bank (Washington D.C.) Consultant - Research Department: 2005-2007 Central Bank of Peru Economist - DSGE Modeling Unit - 2002-2005 CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS 2012: Society of Economic Dynamics (University of Cyprus), IV Workshop of Young Economist (Universidad de Piura - Campus Lima), Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models (St. Louis FED), Annual LACEA Conference (Universidad del Pac´ıfico), Research Meeting of Central Bank of Peru 2009: Research Seminar (Central Reserve Bank of Peru). 2007: North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society (University of Minnesota). 2006: Research Seminar (InterAmerican Development Bank, Washington D.C.). 2005: Research Meeting of Central Bank of Peru. 2004: Research Meeting of Central Bank of Peru. REFEREE Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of International Money and Finance, International Journal of Central Banking. AWARDS UCLA, UCLA, UCLA, UCLA, UCLA, UCLA,

Dissertation Year Fellowship, 2011. The Bradley Foundation Fellowship, 2010, 2011, 2012. Teaching Fellowship Award, 2008 - 2011. Department of Economics Fellowship, 2007 - 2008. PhD. Progress Award, June 2008. Honors in the Field of Econometrics, June 2008.

ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE UCLA Department of Economics Research Assistant, Lee Ohanian, September 2010 - Present. Lecturer, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, Summer 2011. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, Jack Hou, Spring 2011. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, Lee Ohanian, Winter 2011. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, Edward McDevitt, Fall 2011. Lecturer, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, Summer 2010. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Microeconomics, Joseph Sproul, Spring 2010. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Microeconomics, Conan Snider, Winter 2010. Teaching Assistant, Graduate Macroeconomic, Andrew Atkeson/Matthias Doepke, Fall 2010. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Econometrics, Maria Casanova, Spring 2009. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Econometrics, Sandra Black, Winter 2009. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, Prof. Roger Farmer, Fall 2009. Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas (Lima, Peru) Lecturer, Undergraduate Macroeconomics, 2005. OTHER INFORMATION Computer Skills: MATLAB, Stata, Mathematica, LaTeX, Fortran, E-Views, RATS, Bloomberg. Languages: Spanish (Native), English (Fluent).