LIC Housing Finance Growth levers in place, uncertainty over
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. FINANCIALS: Initiating Coverage
2 April 2014
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) is a strong incumbent in the low‐risk, stable‐return housing finance industry with a market share of more than 10%. While it has been growing faster than the industry by drawing on the strong franchise of its parent, we see its growth tapering off a bit, but still above‐industry, enabling further market share. Lower bank borrowings will lead NIM improvement in FY15 while asset repricing and growing share of high‐yield segment will drive NIMs in FY16. Better spreads, stable asset quality, lower credit costs, and comfortable capital position over FY15‐16 makes a promising case for investment with a fair value of Rs295 per share for LICHF, translating into a valuation of 1.5x FY16e ABVPS of Rs196.
Buy
Business will continue to outpace industry growth rates: Despite competitive pressures in retail home loans, we believe LICHF’s disbursements will be higher than peers, given its access to its parent’s strong franchise. We have built in a disbursements growth of 16%/18% for FY15/16. This will result in a loan book growth of 17% over FY15‐16. It will be able to scale up its developer book only by FY16.
Share Holding Pattern, %
LICHF IN | CMP RS 245 TARGET RS 295 (+20%) Company Data O/S SHARES (MN) : MARKET CAP (RSBN) : MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 52 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : FACE VALUE (RS) :
505 112.6 1.8 281 / 152 9.9 2
PROMOTERS : FII / NRI : FI / MF : NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : PUBLIC & OTHERS :
40.3 34.5 10.1 4.4 10.5
Price Performance, %
NIMs will improve a bit in FY15, a lot in FY16: Better borrowing flexibility, asset repricing, and increasing proportion of high‐yield book will augment NIMs in FY15‐16. LICHF’s spreads and NIM are near lows driven by rising funding costs and its inability to pass these on (because of higher competition). NIMs and spreads can improve driven by: a) flexibility to shift to bond markets for borrowings ( = lower bank borrowings), b) Rs 310bn asset repricing in FY16, and c) gradual change in portfolio mix towards high‐yielding products. We see NIMs rising by only ~5 bps in FY15 (largely driven by a change in borrowing mix), but in FY16 they will rise by a substantial ~20bps driven by asset repricing and scaling up of the developer book. Asset quality to remain benign; credit costs to remain stable: With 88% of its customers in the salaried class, LICHF’s individual loan segment has seen resilience — with GNPAs at 0.4% as on 9MFY14. However, the GNPA in its developer book is high at 14.9% due to delinquencies in 4 major accounts. In all these accounts, it has initiated SARFAESI and seized one residential property. As the resolution of these accounts progresses, we expect GNPAs to decline. Against total GNPAs of Rs 7.04bn, LICHF has an outstanding provision of Rs 7.3bn, including Rs 1.4bn for teaser‐rate provision (which it will probably reverse in the next 2‐3 quarters), resulting in stable credit cost in FY15‐16. Bank foray challenges over: We believe that while LICHF would have benefited from LIC’s brand and customer base, however, mobilization of low‐cost deposits would have been a major challenge. Thus transformation from HFC to a bank would have pulled down RoAs from 1.4% currently to ~0.7% over the medium term (3‐4 Years) mainly because of regulatory requirement and high operating cost. Valuation: We see earnings growing at a CAGR of 19.5% over FY14E‐16, resulting in an ROA of 1.5%/1.6% for FY15/FY16. Based on a two‐stage Gordon growth model, we arrive at a fair value of Rs 295 (implied FY16 P/ABVPS of 1.5x) for LICHF. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating.
Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
ABS REL TO BSE
1mth 10.8 3.2
3mth 10.1 5.7
1yr ‐7.4 ‐20.3
Price Vs. Sensex (Rebased values)
200 170 140 110 80 50 Apr‐10 Apr‐11 Apr‐12 Apr‐13 LICHF BSE Sensex
Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Capital Research Other Key Ratios FY14E FY15E FY16E Pre‐prov ROE (%) 26.0 26.3 27.3 Pre‐prov ROA (%) 2.1 2.2 2.3 Net Profit (Rs mn) 12,927 15,406 18,941 % growth 26.3 19.2 22.9 EPS (Rs) 25.6 30.5 37.5 Adj BVPS (Rs) 140.0 164.9 196.4 ROE (%) 18.4 18.8 19.6 P/E (x) 9.6 8.0 6.5 Adj P/BV (x) 1.8 1.5 1.2 Source: Phillip Capital India Research Sachit Motwani, CFA, FRM (+9122 6667 9953)
[email protected] Manish Agarwalla (+9122 6667 9962)
[email protected]
2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Business will continue to outpace industry growth rates LICHF’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 22% over FY08‐13 (vs. 15% industry growth). Consequently, its market share increased from 6% in FY08 to 10.3% in FY13. Housing finance growth rate – Industry and top players Industry growth rate
40%
LICHF
HDFC
SBI
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
Market share trends Banks 100 80
HDFC
LICHF
Others
2
3
2
5
6
2 7
8
9
10
10
20
22
22
22
23
23
70
69
67
66
64
61
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
4
60 40 20 0
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
Two factors drove its strong loan‐book growth — 1), a healthy retail disbursements CAGR of 31.5% over FY08‐13 due to volume expansion (especially from dual‐rate products), and 2), a 10% CAGR increase in incremental average ticket size over the same period. The company also benefited from strong brand recall and the agency network of its parent, LIC — LIC agents currently source 60% LICHF’s business. However, disbursements in the developer segment was muted (‐0.7% CAGR in FY08‐13) after corruption charges on top management in November 2010 and a deliberate slowing down of the book due to economic slowdown. Despite competitive pressures in retail home loans, we believe that LICHF’s disbursements growth will continue to outpace systemic growth, given its access to the strong franchise of its parent. It will be able to scale up its developer book only by FY16. We have built in a disbursements growth of 16%/18% for FY15/16, which is above CRISIL’s estimate of systemic disbursements growth. This will result in a loan book growth of 17% over FY15‐16.
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
HFCs have been gaining market share Housing loans have generally given stable returns and have had lower delinquencies — therefore, this segment has always been highly competitive. Banks have been able to compete well in the home‐loan segment because of their lower borrowing costs and extensive branch network. Even so, HFCs (housing finance companies) have gained market share in the last few years. According to NHB’s report on trends and progress of housing in India, HFCs’ market share increased from 30% in FY08 to almost 39% in FY13. We believe that this gain was due to their focused approach, better underwriting standards, better customer service, and relatively lower delinquencies. Banks’ housing loan portfolio grew at a CAGR of 12.4% over FY08‐13 while HFCs’ grew at 21.6%. Growth in housing loan outstanding and HFCs market share 8000
Outstanding housing loan portfolio (Rs bn) HDFCs market share (rhs)
40 35
6000
30 4000 25 2000
20
0
15 FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Source: NHB Report on trends and progress of housing in India
HFCs’ underwriting standards are clearly better than banks’ — visible from the difference in NPAs between them — banks’ housing loan NPAs in FY13 were 2.35% vs. HFCs’ 1.11%. According to CRISIL estimates, housing loan disbursements will decelerate to 12‐14% over the next two years owing to slower economic growth, high property prices, and reducing affordability levels because of uncertain income growth. However, over a 5‐ year period, CRISIL estimates housing finance disbursements to see a CAGR of 16‐17% — this, coupled with lower prepayments (with rising uncertainty in income levels) will result in a ~16% loan growth for the industry over the 5 year period.
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
NIMs will improve a bit in FY15, a lot in FY16 Over FY08‐12, LICHF’s NIM declined from a range of 2.8‐3.0% to 2.2% in FY13 and 9MFY14. Over the same period, spreads declined to ~1% from over 2%. Rising cost of funds and LICHF’s inability to pass it on (intensified competition in the home‐loan market because it has relatively lower delinquencies) led the decline in NIM and spreads. Trends in yield on advances, cost of funds and NIM Cost of funds
12
Yiled on Advances
NIM
4.0
11
3.5
10
3.0
9 2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5 Jun‐07 Sep‐07 Dec‐07 Mar‐08 Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐09 Jun‐09 Sep‐09 Dec‐09 Mar‐10 Jun‐10 Sep‐10 Dec‐10 Mar‐11 Jun‐11 Sep‐11 Dec‐11 Mar‐12 Jun‐12 Sep‐12 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13
7
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
With incremental disbursements taking place mainly in the dual‐rate segment (fixed rate of ~10.25% for a limited period) and with the elongated slowdown in the developer segment, we do not see a significant shift in the loan‐book mix in FY15. LICHF’s LAP (loans against property) segment (which is at ~3.25% of the book and where it currently sells to its own customers) may witness traction but in the overall scheme of things, LAP’s share will increase only gradually. Based on this and Rs 70bn of asset repricing in FY15, we see LICHF’s yields improving only marginally by ~5 bps. However, we see a sharp improvement in yields in FY16 (as assets worth Rs 310bn will be repriced) largely driven by the repricing of Advantage‐5 and a pickup in the developer loan segment. As per our calculation, repricing in FY16 will result in yield improvement of ~20 bps. Change in loan book mix over FY14‐16 Loan book mix Outstanding loan book (Rs bn) Incremental loans (Rs bn) Individual ‐ Fixed ‐ Floating LAP Developer
9MFY14 864 810 432 378 28 26
Proportion (%) 93.8% 50.0% 43.8% 3.3% 3.0%
FY15E 1054 190 972 499 472 38 45
Proportion (%) 92.2% 47.4% 44.8% 3.6% 4.2%
FY16E 1238 184 1128 322 806 47 63
Proportion (%) 91.1% 26.0% 65.1% 3.8% 5.1%
Source: PhillipCapital Research
Given its higher dependence on the wholesale market, LICHF’s funding costs are highly sensitive to wholesale market rates. NCDs constitute ~63% of its total borrowings — 22% of LICHF’s borrowings have a maturity of 3‐5 years while 32% have a maturity of 5 years+. Therefore, we have taken the 5‐year AAA corporate bond yield as a benchmark (LICHF’s current rating is AAA).
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Movement in bond yields vs. LICHF’s cost of funds 12
AAA 5 year Corp yields
Cost of funds
11 10 9 8 7 Jun‐07 Sep‐07 Dec‐07 Mar‐ Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐ Jun‐09 Sep‐09 Dec‐09 Mar‐ Jun‐10 Sep‐10 Dec‐10 Mar‐ Jun‐11 Sep‐11 Dec‐11 Mar‐ Jun‐12 Sep‐12 Dec‐12 Mar‐ Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13
6
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital Research
Movement in bond yields vs. LICHF’s spreads Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital Research
Borrowings maturity profile Maturity Profile of borrowings % of borrowings Up to 1 year 1 to 3 years 3 to 5 years Above 5 years
______FY11______ Bank Market 8% 22% 25% 36% 22% 9% 45% 34%
______FY12______ Bank Market 33% 19% 21% 31% 28% 19% 18% 30%
______FY13______ Bank Market 16% 18% 21% 32% 24% 21% 39% 29%
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
We believe that LICHF’s dependence on NCDs will rise because wholesale rates will continue to be lower than banks’ base rate — wholesale rates were at 9.0‐9.5% (excluding one‐off shocks of 15th July) vs. banks’ base rate of 10%+. Consequently, LICHF’s bank borrowing is likely to decline from 27% as on 9MFY14 to ~20% by FY15. As per our calculation, this will result in ~7 bps reduction in cost of funds. Trends in borrowing mix NCDs 100% 17%
43%
Others
14%
11%
10%
10%
28%
32%
30%
27%
52%
58%
58%
61%
63%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
9MFY14
18%
14%
32%
34%
50%
FY09
80% 60%
Loans from banks
40% 20%
40%
0% FY08
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
To conclude, we believe LICHF’s NIM will increase only marginally in FY15 by ~5 bps (driven by change in borrowing mix) to 2.25% while in FY16, we expect to see a NIM improvement of 10bps to 2.35% (driven by asset repricing and scaling up of its developer book).
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Asset quality benign; credit costs to remain stable Asset quality in the housing loan segment has historically shown resilience due to increasing property prices, controlled LTVs (loan‐to‐value ratios), and emotional attachment to the home. Default rates are minimal compared to other loan products. LICHF, with an 88% salaried class of customer base, has also witnessed resilience in its individual loan portfolio with GNPAs at 0.4% as on 9MFY14. Delinquencies in four large chunky developer accounts resulted in developer book GNPA (%) at 14.9% as on 9MFY14. In all four cases, it initiated SARFAESI (Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act) and is hopeful of a resolution in the next 2‐3 quarters. LICHF also has a strong asset cover for those NPAs at 2.0‐2.5x. Its total outstanding provisions are Rs 7.3bn, of which ~Rs 1bn pertains to the developer segment. The company also carries an excess provision on teaser‐rate loans (Rs 1.4bn), which will probably be reversed in the next 2‐3 quarters, bringing down credit costs. While this will boost earnings in FY15, the coverage ratio may decline to ~85% from over 100% currently. As resolution of developer NPLs progresses and with a reversal of provision on teaser loans, we expect LICHF’s GNPAs and credit costs to stabilize in FY15‐16. Asset quality trends GNPA (%)
0.9
NNPA (%)
Credit Cost (bps)
70
0.8
60
0.7 50
0.6 0.5
40
0.4
30
0.3
20
0.2 10
0.1
0
0.0 FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
Trends in outstanding provisioning and coverage GNPAs
Outstanding provision
Coverage (RHS)
800
300
700
250
600 200
500 400
150
300
100
200 50
100
0
0 FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
9MFY14
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Key risks Interest rate risks on the back of ALM mismatch We believe that LICHF is vulnerable to significant interest rate risk due to a mismatch in its floating vs. fixed book. Currently 56% of its loan book is fixed while ~70% of its borrowings are fixed. The proportion of fixed‐rate book will decline substantially in FY16 driven by conversion of Advantage 5 loans to floating rates. Even though a substantial proportion of incremental loans are fixed in nature, it will not sufficiently offset the decline in fixed‐rate book (%). Carrying higher proportion of fixed‐rate liabilities relative to fixed‐rate book puts LICHF at a disadvantage in a declining interest rate environment. Proportion of fixed rate assets and liabilities Fixed rate loans (%)
80%
Fixed rate liabilities (%)
60%
40%
20%
0% FY11
FY12
FY13
9MFY14
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
Given that LICHF is a wholesale borrower, if interest rates continue to remain elevated, LICHF’s NIMs will not improve from current levels. Competitive pressures do not give LICHF enough room to pass on the rising cost of funds. We therefore believe that if interest rates were to remain high, NIM improvement will be elongated. Buildup of inventory can put mortgage price at risk The rising inventory levels across cities clearly indicate the ongoing slowdown in the physical real estate market. While real estate prices have held up until now, we cannot rule out the possibility of a price correction. A decline in real estate prices can be a cause of concern, as it will affect LICFH’s growth and asset quality. Mortgage property price Index across cities 350
Mumbai
Pune
Bengaluru
Chennai
Delhi
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 3 2 3 11 13 12 11 12 11 12 13 c 1 n 1 n 1 ar pt ec ec ar un ep ep De ‐Ju ‐Ju r‐J ‐M l‐S l‐S ‐Se t‐D t‐D ‐ M t‐ pr pr n u u c n c J J a Ap A A a Jul Oc O J O J
Source: NHB, PhillipCapital Research
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Residential inventory Inventory (000, units) Mumbai Pune Bangalore Chennai NCR
Dec‐12 119.1 41.5 34.2 47.6 179.8
Source: PhillipCapital Research
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Dec‐13 134.7 53.7 62.0 47.9 195.8
growth (YoY) 13.1 29.2 81.4 0.5 8.9
2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Valuation We value LICHF based on a 2‐stage Gordon‐growth model which gives us a target P/Adj BV multiple of 1.5x — this multiple factors a growth of 20% for 5 years, terminal growth of 5%, and sustainable RoEs of 16%. Valuation assumptions Risk free rate Beta Market risk premium cost o equity High growth period Sustainable RoE
8.75% 1.2 5% 14.75% 5 years 16%
Growth Rate Payout Ratio
High growth 20% 20%
Terminal growth 5% 60%
Source: Company, PhillipCapital Research
About the company Promoted by LIC, LICHF is the third‐largest mortgage financier in India (after SBI and HDFC. As of December 2013, it had an outstanding loan book of Rs 864bn and a customer base of over 1.5mn. Retail mortgages constitute 97% of its loan book with the balance coming from the developer segment. LICHF provides housing finance through 201 marketing outlets and 40 branches of its LICHFL Financial Services (100% subsidiary). It has agency strength of 10912 agents, of which ~80% are LIC agents. It sources 60% of its business through LIC agents.
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Rolling and discount chart 1‐year forward P/BV band 800 3.5x
700 600
2.5x
500 400
1.5x
300 200
0.5x
100 0 Apr‐07
Apr‐08
Apr‐09
Apr‐10
Apr‐11
Apr‐12
Apr‐13
Apr‐14
Source: PhillipCapital India Research
LICHF’s valuation discount to HDFC P/BV Discount (LICHF / HDFCHF)
Source: PhillipCapital India Research
– 10 of 13 –
Apr‐14
Oct‐13
Apr‐13
Oct‐12
Apr‐12
Oct‐11
Apr‐11
Oct‐10
Apr‐10
Oct‐09
Apr‐09
Oct‐08
Apr‐08
Oct‐07
Apr‐07
0 ‐10 ‐20 ‐30 ‐40 ‐50 ‐60 ‐70 ‐80 ‐90
2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Financials Valuation Ratios
Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn Interest on individual housing loans Interest on project loans
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
70,414
87,313
99,537
113,473
4,177
3,550
6,035
9,959
100
Other interest income
118
150
200
Total Interest earned
74,709
90,964 105,723
123,631
Interest expended
59,246
72,319
83,565
96,164
Net Interest Income
15,463
18,645
22,158
27,467
1,880
2,478
2,624
2,808
17,343
21,123
24,782
30,275
Total non interest income Total Income Personnel Expenses
904
1,031
1,237
1,484
Other Expenses
1,914
1,833
2,042
2,395
Total Op expenses
2,818
2,864
3,279
3,879
14,524
18,259
21,504
26,396
Net Inc (Loss) before prov Provision for NPAs Net Inc (Loss) before tax Provision for Income Tax Net Profit
789
400
300
400
13,736
17,709
21,104
25,946
3,504
4,781
5,698
7,006
10,232
12,927
15,406
18,941
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn Assets Cash & Bal with RBI Loans, Adv & Int accrued Investments
5,578 778,127
7,358
8,462
9,896
903,774 1,053,872 1,238,081
10,924
12,102
13,988
16,103
624
686
789
868
Other assets
7,861
9,040
10,046
11,051
DTA
2,489
2,738
3,012
3,313
Fixed Assets (Net)
Total Assets
805,602
Liabilities Share capital Reserves and Surplus Subordinated Debt Borrowing Other liabilities Provision for contingencies Total Liabilities
935,698 1,090,168 1,279,311
1,010
1,010
1,010
1,010
63,803
74,367
87,410
103,869
30,000
30,000
30,000
30,000 657,641
798,652 924,986 1,094,027
43,303
21,275
35,969
39,161
9,844
10,394
10,794
11,244
805,602
Earnings and Valuation Ratios Pre‐provision Operating RoAE (%) RoAE (%) Pre‐provision Operating ROA (%) RoAB (%) EPS (Rs.) Dividend per share (Rs.) Book Value (Rs.) Adj BV (Rs.) Revenue Analysis Interest income on IBA (%) Interest cost on IBL (%) NIM on IBA / AWF (%) Core fee Inc / AWF (%) Portfolio gains / Total Inc (%) Op.Exp / TI (%) Op.Exp / AWF (%) Employee exps / Op exps (%) Tax / Pre‐tax earnings (%) Asset Quality GNPAs / Gross Adv (%) NNPAs / Net Adv (%) Growth Ratio Loans (%) Investments (%) Deposits (%) Net worth (%) Net Int Income (%) Non‐fund based income (%) Non‐Int Exp (%) Profit Before Tax (%) Net profit (%) Capital Adequacy Ratio: Tier I (%) Internal Capital Generation rate (%) NNPAs to Equity (%)
935,698 1,090,168 1,279,311
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
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FY13 23.9 16.8 2.0 1.4 20.3 3.8 128.3 122.9 10.4 9.5 2.1 0.2 3.5 16.8 0.4 32.1 25.5 0.6 0.4 23.4 (20.6) 23.9 14.1 10.3 (15.3) 18.9 11.6 11.9 16.5 11.5 21.4 4.3
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
26.0 18.4 2.1 1.5 25.6 4.0 149.3 140.0
26.3 18.8 2.1 1.5 30.5 4.0 175.1 164.9
27.3 19.6 2.2 1.6 37.5 4.2 207.7 196.4
10.6 9.5 2.2 0.1 6.3 14.4 0.3 36.0 27.0
10.6 9.4 2.2 0.1 5.3 13.9 0.3 37.7 27.0
10.6 9.3 2.3 0.1 4.3 13.4 0.3 38.3 27.0
0.8 0.5
0.8 0.5
0.8 0.5
16.1 10.8 21.4 16.3 20.6 31.8 1.6 28.9 26.3
16.6 15.6 15.8 17.3 18.8 5.9 14.5 19.2 19.2
17.5 15.1 18.3 18.6 24.0 7.0 18.3 22.9 22.9
17.6 12.5 23.1 6.2
16.7 12.4 23.1 5.8
16.0 12.4 23.8 5.4
2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Management (91 22) 2300 2999 (91 22) 6667 9735
Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives)
Research Automobiles Deepak Jain Priya Ranjan Banking, NBFCs Manish Agarwalla Sachit Motwani, CFA, FRM
(9122) 6667 9758 (9122) 6667 9965
Engineering, Capital Goods Ankur Sharma (9122) 6667 9759 Aditya Bahety (9122) 6667 9986
(9122) 6667 9962 (9122) 6667 9953
Infrastructure & IT Services Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6667 9949 Varun Vijayan (9122) 6667 9992 Metals Dhawal Doshi Dharmesh Shah
Consumer, Media, Telecom Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9947 Vivekanand Subbaraman (9122) 6667 9766 Manish Pushkar (9122) 6667 9764 Cement Vaibhav Agarwal
(9122) 6667 9967
Economics Anjali Verma
(9122) 6667 9969
(9122) 6667 9769 (9122) 6667 9974
Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Gauri Anand Deepak Pareek
(9122) 6667 9943 (9122) 6667 9950
Sales Trader Dilesh Doshi Suniil Pandit
(9122) 6667 9747 (9122) 6667 9745
Pharma Surya Patra
(9122) 6667 9768
Retail, Real Estate Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) 6667 9952 Neha Garg (9122) 6667 9996 Technicals Subodh Gupta
(9122) 6667 9762
Database Manager Vishal Randive
(9122) 6667 9944
Sr. Manager – Equities Support Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971
Sales & Distribution Kinshuk Tiwari Ashvin Patil Shubhangi Agrawal Kishor Binwal Sidharth Agrawal Dipesh Sohani
(9122) 6667 9946 (9122) 6667 9991 (9122) 6667 9964 (9122) 6667 9989 (9122) 6667 9934 (9122) 6667 9756
Execution Mayur Shah
(9122) 6667 9945
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CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai 200 001 Tel (86) 21 5169 9200 Fax: (86) 21 6351 2940 www.phillip.com.cn
THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921 www.phillip.co.th
FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017 www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835 www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005
AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) 3 9629 8380 Fax: (61) 3 9614 8309 www.phillipcapital.com.au
SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199 www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm
INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, C‐Block, 2nd Floor, Modern Center , Jacob Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in
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2 April 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / LIC HOUSING FINANCE INITIATING COVERAGE
Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. which is regulated by SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. 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Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request. Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report. The Research Analyst certifies that he /she or his / her family members does not own the stock(s) covered in this research report. Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it or its affiliates may hold either long or short positions in such securities. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not hold more than 1% of the shares of the company(ies) covered in this report. Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety. Caution: Risk of loss in trading in can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker‐dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker‐dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a‐6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities andExchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a‐6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker‐dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: 2nd Floor, C‐Block, Modern Centre, Mahalaxmi, Mumbai – 400011
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