BUY SUHANI ADILABADKAR RESEARCH REPORT

Q4 FY17

HDFC BANK LTD QUARTERLY OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATION HDFC Bank Ltd reported stable fourth quarter results FY17 with both PAT & NII growing in double digits. PAT or Net Profit for the quarter stood at Rs. 39901 Mn compared to Rs. 33742 Mn same period previous year, rising 18% YOY & with quarterly growth of 3%, slowest over the previous three quarters. Net Interest Income, difference between interest earned and expended was at Rs. 90551 Mn in the current quarter against Rs. 74533 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. Net Interest Margin indicating core profitability of bank’s operations stood at 4.30% for the current March quarter. Gross NPAs as a percentage of Gross Advances edged up 11 basis points YOY at 1.05%, Net NPAs as a percentage of Net advances also rose 5 basis points at 0.33% in the current Q4 FY17. One basis point is 0.01%. On sequential basis, NPA ratios were almost constant. Provisions & contingencies spiked 1.9 times YOY and stood at Rs. 12618 Mn rising 76% QOQ. Double digit growth is visible in all business segments, the highest in Other Banking Business segment at 21%, followed by Treasury & corporate at 19% & 14% YOY respectively. Retail segment contributes 50% of total revenue and reported 9% yearly growth at Rs. 168306 Mn in the current quarter. CASA ratio galloped 500 BP and stood at 48% in the current quarter. Other income or non interest revenue accounting 16% of the total income of the bank rose 20% YOY and stood at Rs. 34463 Mn in current Q4 FY17 with a sequential jump of 10%. Advances outpaced deposits moving at 19% yearly and 12% QOQ. Deposits on the other hand grew 1.41% QOQ and 18% YOY in the current March quarter. Advances & Deposits stood at Rs. 5545680 Mn and Rs. 6436397 Mn in the Q4 FY17. Cost income ratio of bank stood at 42.40% in the current March FY17 against 44.90% corresponding quarter previous year. HDFC Bank, second largest private sector with market cap of Rs. 4258958 Mn, is an epitome of stability & profitability in the midst of global volatility and domestic uncertainty. With stable asset quality & CASA, rising NII & NIM, growing profitability and CAR of 14.60% (Tier I12.80%), HDFC bank is one of the most desirable long term bets for retail investors. Thus we recommend BUY for the stock for medium and long term investment with a target price of Rs. 1920.

CMP

Rs. 1662.00

TARGET

Rs.1920.00

INDUSTRY

BANKING

SCRIP CODE

500180

FACE VALUE

Rs. 2.00

MARKET Rs. 4258958.10 Mn CAP 52 WEEK Rs. 1691.90 /Rs.1146.60 HIGH/LOW SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) PROMOTER

26.00

PUBLIC

74.00

OTHERS TOTAL

100.00 Q4 FY16 CHN

In Mn

Q4 FY17

NII

90551

74533

21%

PAT

39901

33742

18%

NIM

4.30%

4.30%

-

EPS

15.57

13.35

16.67%

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

NII

331392

381404

433629

PAT

145497

168424

189111

PBT

221391

257220

291227

EPS

56.78

65.73

73.80

PE

29.27

25.29

22.52

In Mn

HDFC BANK LTD V/S S&P BSE SENSEX

PERFORMANCE METRICS (March Quarter FY17) Profitability Analysis PROFIT AFTER TAX (Rs. In Mn) 38653

40000

35000

33742

32389

39901

NET INTEREST MARGIN

4.45% 4.40%

4.40%

34553

4.35%

30000

4.30%

25000

4.25%

4.30%

4.30% 4.20%

4.20%

20000

4.10%

4.15%

15000

4.10%

10000

4.05%

5000

4.00%

0 Q4 FY16

Q1 FY17

Q2 FY17

Q3 FY17

Q4 FY17

HDFC Bank reported strong & stable fourth quarter FY17 with PAT jumping 18% YOY and stood at Rs. 39901 Mn but grew at slower rate of 3% sequentially in the current March quarter. Net Interest Income grew at a stronger note both yearly and quarterly and stood at Rs.90551 Mn compared to Rs. 74533 Mn corresponding quarter previous year. NII grew 9% sequentially and 21% YOY. Net Interest Income jumped on the back of average asset growth of 19% in Q4 FY17. Net Interest Margin stood at 4.30% in the current March quarter. Net Interest Margin jumped 20 basis points QOQ and maintained its status quo yearly. Operating expenditure jumped QOQ by 8% where as on yearly basis rise was about 14% in the current quarter. Operating expenditure stood at Rs. 52220 Mn in the current quarter compared to Rs. 45843 Mn in the corresponding quarter previous year. Other income constituted 16% of total income of Rs 215607 Mn. Fees & commission, major component of other income rose 16% YOY, contributing 73% of total Other Income. Forex Derivatives & Revaluation on sale of assets grew 26% & 56% YOY whereas Misc Income jumped 31%.

3.95% Q4 FY16

Q1 FY17

Q2 FY17

Q3 FY17

Q4 FY17

NET INTEREST INCOME (Rs In Mn)

100000

90551

90000 80000

74533

77814

79936

Q1 FY17

Q2 FY17

83091

70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Q4 FY16

Q3 FY17

Q4 FY17

OTHER INCOME (Rs In Mn)

OTHER INCOME COMPOSITION

Q4 FY17

34463

Q3 FY17

Misc Income 11%

31427

Q2 FY17

Revaluation & sale on Investments 5%

29010

Q1 FY17

28066

Q4 FY16

28659 0

10000

20000

30000

Foreign ex & Derivatives 11%

Fees & Commision 73%

40000

Segment Revenue Analysis Segment Revenue (Rs. In Mn)

Q4 FY17

Q4 FY16

YOY CHG%

Treasury

59130.10

49794.50

18.75%

Retail

168306.30

154409.80

9.00%

Wholesale Banking

79798.90

70255.30

13.58%

Other Banking Business

26397.50

21842.70

20.85%

SEGMENT REVENUE COMPOSITION

Other Banking Business 8% Treasury 18% Wholesale Banking 24%

Retail 50%

All revenue segments except Retail rose in double digits YOY with treasury jumping 19% YOY at Rs. 59130 Mn against Rs. 49795 Mn in the corresponding quarter previous year FY16. Retail segment representing half of revenues reported relatively slow growth of 9% YOY and almost stagnant QOQ growth in the current March quarter. Wholesale segment increased 14% yearly and grew 2% QOQ contributing 24% of the total revenues. Other banking business segment contributing just 8% of total revenues reported highest growth of 21% YOY and 13% sequentially in the current Q4 FY17.

Asset Quality Analysis

ASSET QUALITY

Q4 FY17

Q4 FY16

YOY

Provisions & Contengencies (Rs. In Mn) 14000

12618

12000

Gross NPAs

1.05%

0.94%

11 BP

10000 8000

Net NPAs

0.33%

0.28%

5 BP

8667 7490

7158

Q2 FY17

Q3 FY17

6625

6000 4000 2000

Provisions & Contingencies

12618.00

6624.50

90.47%

0 Q4 FY16

Q1 FY17

Q4 FY17

Second largest private sector bank in asset base, HDFC Bank has reported stable asset quality sequentially though mild stress was evident on yearly basis. NPA ratios seem manageable as Gross & Net NPA ratios have increased 11 & 5 basis points YOY. On quarterly basis, NPA ratios both Gross & Net are almost constant. Gross NPAs as a percentage of Gross Advances stood at 1.05% in the current quarter where as Net NPAs as percentage Net Advances rose 1 basis points at 0.33% sequentially. One basis point is 100th of percentage. On absolute terms, Gross NPAs have increased by Rs.14928 Mn, jump of about 34% YOY. On the other hand, Net NPAs increased by Rs. 5236 Mn, rising 40% YOY. After June quarter, provisions have spiked up again in current March quarter with a quarterly growth of 76% and 1.9 times YOY. On absolute terms, YOY rise has been Rs. 5994 Mn whereas quarterly jump was at Rs. 5460 Mn for Provisions in the current March quarter. Provisions & Contingencies jumped 90% YOY at Rs. 12618 Mn against Rs 6625 Mn same period previous year. Provisions and contingencies for the quarter ended 31st December 2016 consisted of Specific loan loss provisions at Rs. 9779 Mn against Rs.4903 Mn same period previous year. General provisions stood at Rs. 2803 Mn against Rs. 1611 Mn and other provisions at Rs. 36 Mn against Rs.111 Mn corresponding period previous year.

NON PERFORMING ASSETS 1.20% 1.00%

1.04%

1.02%

0.94%

1.05%

1.05%

0.80%

GNPAS

0.60% 0.40%

NNPAS 0.28%

0.32%

0.32%

0.30%

0.33%

0.20% 0.00% Q4 FY16

Q1 FY17

Q2 FY17

Q3 FY17

Q4 FY17

Business Growth Analysis CASA ratio has jumped by 500 basis points (BP) yearly and sequentially there was a jump of about 300 basis points. CASA ratio stood at 48% in Q4 FY17 against 43% corresponding quarter previous year. Advances rose at an average of 5% over the previous four quarters whereas deposits moved at lower pace of 4% over the same period. Savings account constitutes 30% of the total deposits and rose 31% YOY at Rs. 1935790 Mn as on March 2017. Current accounts are 16% of the total deposits and increased by 31% YOY to reach Rs. 1155740 Mn in March quarter FY17. Term deposits stood at Rs. 3344870 Mn reporting a rise of 7.9% YOY in the current March quarter. HDFC Bank has 52% of its 4715 branches & 12260 ATMs in rural and semi urban areas leading to high CASA ratio. CAR as per Basel III guideline is at 14.60% as on 31st March 2017 against 15.50% as on 31st March 2016. Tier I CAR was at 12.80% as on 31st March 2017 compared to 13.20% as on 31st March 2016. Risk Weighted Assets were at Rs.6400300 Mn as on 31st March 2017.

CASA RATIO 50%

48% 45%

43%

45%

40%

40%

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q4 FY16

Q1 FY17

Q2 FY17

Q3 FY17

Q4 FY17

ADVANCES &DEPOSITS (Rs In mn)

7000000

5464240

5737550

4645940

6436397 5545682

6000000 5000000

6347046

5917310

4706220

4950433

4944180

Advances

4000000

Deposits

3000000 2000000 1000000

0 31/03/16

30/06/16

30/09/16

31/12/16

31/03/17

Though average growth rate for Advances over the previous four quarters is around 5%, sequential growth in current March quarter was a strong 12%. Advances rose 19% on yearly basis and stood at Rs.5545682 Mn as of March 2017. The Bank’s domestic loan portfolio stood at Rs. 5386420 Mn as on 31st March 2017 and grew 24% over March 31st 2016. Both segments of loan portfolio grew faster than the system loan growth. As a result, loan growth was contributed by both segments domestic retail loans and wholesale loans and as per regulatory Basel 2 segment classification, growth was 26.60% and 20.70% respectively. The domestic loan mix as per Basel 2 classification between retail: wholesale was 53:47. Total Deposits grew YOY by 18% and stood at Rs. 6436397 Mn compared to Rs.5464240 Mn in the same quarter previous year but reported a dismal 1.41% sequential growth in the current March quarter.

SAVINGS & CURRENT ACCOUNTS (Rs. In Mn)

1354320

31/12/15

740440

31/03/16

1478860

884250

30/06/16

1527010

760820

30/09/16

SA CA

1599500

791540 1866340

31/12/16

1012390

31/03/17

1935790

1155740 0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

Corporate Profile The Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited (HDFC) was amongst the first to receive an 'in principle' approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set up a bank in the private sector, as part of RBI's liberalization of the Indian Banking Industry in 1994. The bank was incorporated in August 1994 in the name of 'HDFC Bank Limited', with its registered office in Mumbai, India. HDFC Bank commenced operations as a Scheduled Commercial Bank in January 1995. HDFC Bank caters to a wide range of banking services covering commercial and investment banking on the wholesale side and transactional / branch banking on the retail side. HDFC Bank is headquartered in Mumbai. As of March 31st, 2017, the Bank’s distribution network was at 4715 branches and 12260 ATMs. 52% of the branches are in semi urban and rural areas. All branches are linked on an online real-time basis. Customers across India are also serviced through multiple delivery channels such as Phone Banking, Net Banking, Mobile Banking and SMS based banking. The Bank’s expansion plans take into account the need to have a presence in all major industrial and commercial centers, where its corporate customers are located, as well as the need to build a strong retail customer base for both deposits and loan products. Being a clearing / settlement bank to various leading stock exchanges, the Bank has branches in centers where the NSE / BSE have a strong and active member base.

Financial Analysis QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT OF HDFC BANK LTD FROM 30th Sep 2016 TO 30th June 2017E VALUE

30-Sep-16

31-Dec-16

31-Mar-17

30-June-17E

Rs. In Million

3 months

3 months

3 months

3 months

INTEREST EARNED

170699.40

176056.00

181144.00

188389.76

OTHER INCOME

29009.50

31426.70

34462.60

36185.73

TOTAL INCOME

199708.90

207482.70

215606.60

224575.49

INTEREST EXPENDED

-90763.50

-92965.10

-90593.00

-94216.72

PROFIT BEFORE OP EXP & PROVISIONS

108945.40

114517.60

125013.60

130358.77

OPERATING EXPENSES

-48699.90

-48425.10

-52219.60

-53786.19

OPERATING PROFIT

60245.50

66092.50

72794.00

76572.58

PROVISIONS

-7489.90

-7157.80

-12618.00

-13248.90

PROFIT BEFORE TAX

52755.60

58934.70

60176.00

63323.68

TAX

-18202.30

-20281.40

-20275.10

-21288.86

PROFIT AFTER TAX

34553.30

38653.30

39900.90

42034.83

EQUITY CAPITAL

5091.30

5110.70

5125.10

5125.10

FACE VALUE

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

EPS

13.57

15.13

15.57

16.40

ANNUAL PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT OF HDFC BANK LTD FROM 2016 TO 2019E 31- Mar-16

31- Mar-17

31- Mar-18E

31-Mar-19E

12 months

12 months

12 months

12 months

INTEREST EARNED

602214.50

693059.60

790087.94

887268.76

OTHER INCOME

107517.20

122964.90

141409.64

155550.60

TOTAL INCOME

709731.70

816024.50

931497.58

1042819.36

INTEREST EXPENDED

-326299.30

-361667.40

-408684.16

-453639.42

PROFIT BEFORE OP EXP & PROVISIONS

383432.40

454357.10

522813.42

589179.94

OPERATING EXPENSES

-169796.90

-197033.20

-220677.18

-244951.67

OPERATING PROFIT

213635.50

257323.90

302136.23

344228.27

PROVISIONS

-27256.10

-35933.00

-44916.25

-53001.18

PROFIT BEFORE TAX

186379.40

221390.90

257219.98

291227.09

TAX

-63417.10

-75894.30

-88796.33

-102115.78

PROFIT AFTER TAX

122962.30

145496.60

168423.65

189111.31

5056.40

5125.10

5125.10

5125.10

721721.30

889498.70

1057922.35

1247033.66

FACE VALUE

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

EPS

48.64

56.78

65.73

73.80

VALUE Rs. In Million

EQUITY CAPITAL RESERVES

BALANCE SHEET FROM 2016 TO 2019E CAPITAL & LIABILITIES (Rs. In Mn)

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

5056.40

5125.10

5125.10

5125.10

RESERVES & SURPLUS

721721.30

889498.70

1057922.35

1247033.66

DEPOSITS

5464241.90

6436396.60

7466220.06

8586153.06

BORROWINGS

849689.90

740288.70

777303.14

808395.26

OTHER LIABILITIES & PROVISIONS

367251.30

567093.00

737220.90

884665.08

7407960.80

8638402.10

10043791.54

11531372.17

CASH & BALANCES WITH RBI

300583.10

378968.70

469921.19

554507.00

BALANCES WITH BANKS AND MONEY AT CALL AND SHORT NOTICE

88605.30

110552.30

132662.76

155215.43

INVESTMENTS

1958362.90

2144633.40

2337650.41

2618168.45

ADVANCES

4645939.60

5545682.00

6604808.60

7680179.70

FIXED ASSETS

33431.50

36267.50

38443.55

39981.29

OTHER ASSETS

381038.40

422298.20

460305.04

483320.29

7407960.80

8638402.10

10043791.54

11531372.17

CAPITAL

TOTAL LIABILITIES ASSETS (Rs. In Mn)

TOTAL ASSETS

Ratio Analysis YEAR

FY 16A

FY 17E

FY18E

FY19E

48.64

56.78

65.73

73.80

NPM

20.42%

20.99%

21.32%

21.31%

ROE

16.92%

16.26%

15.84%

15.10%

BOOK VALUE

287.47

349.11

414.84

488.64

P/BV

5.78

4.76

4.01

3.40

PE

34.17

29.27

25.29

22.52

EPS

Comparative Analysis (Standalone)

Q4 FY17

EPS

CAR

PAT (Rs. In Mn)

GNPA RATIO

MKT CAP (Rs. In Mn)

NIM

CASA RATIO

INDUSIND BANK

12.57

15.31%

7516

0.93%

864296.84

4%

36.85%

YES BANK

20.02

17%

9141

1.52%

744689.00

3.50%

36.30%

HDFC BANK

15.57

14.60%

39901

1.05%

4258958.10

4.30%

48%

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK

5.31

16.77%

9765

2.59%

1832616.20

4.60%

44%

ICICI BANK

3.48

17.39%

20246

7.89%

1854182.30

3.57%

50.40%

Industry- Current Scenario Indian Banking Sector has been the bedrock of resilience against global volatility. With fiscal deficit & CAD in control and low inflation, India is poised for high sustainable growth. Indian banking system on its part has gone through various highs and lows over the last 10-12 years. Third & fourth quarters of FY16 for Indian banks especially PSU were marred by high provisions and losses due to cleaning up process directed by Reserve Bank Of India. PSU banks might be under stress for the next 3 -4 quarters whereas Private sector banks with low exposure to power & infrastructure sectors have fared well during financial crises since 2008. Though they have performed well during tough times buttressing banking services in urban and semi urban India, they have not remained unscathed by slowing Indian economy as witnessed by rising nonperforming assets. Over the last one and a half years, domestic scenario has changed with more autonomy given to banks through Indradanush initiative undertaken by the government. In addition to that proactive policies have been undertaken by the central bank such as introduction of MCLR, addressing liquidity needs of the banking sector, tighter norms for willful defaulters and licenses given to small & payment banks. New MCLR base rate methodology adopted since 1 st April 2016 is expected to lower lending rates buttressing the loan book of the banks leading to improved bottom-line and lower provisions. With the economy gaining momentum, banking system needs to become agile to fulfill the requirements of both corporate and households. On the global front, US Fed tantrums, European sluggish economy, China’s decelerating growth have given enough challenges for our banking industry. But even in this uncertain volatile world economy, both public and private sector banks have worked together to strengthen our financial system and made India the only Brick left in the famed BRICS ellipsis.

SUHANI ADILABADKAR [email protected] 9701063320

Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in the research reports have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The research report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for

their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including but not limited to tax advice. The reports do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, risk profile or needs of individual clients. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Research data and reports published/ emailed/ text messaged via Short Messaging Services, Online Messengers, WhatsApp etc/transmitted through mobile application/s, including but not limited to FLIP™, Video Widget, telephony networks, print or electronic media and or those made available/uploaded on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc) is for informational purposes only. The reports are provided for assistance and are not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive the reports at the same time. We will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. The reports include projections, forecasts and other predictive statements which represent our assumptions and expectations in the light of currently available information. These projections and forecasts are based on industry trends, circumstances and factors which involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected. The opinions expressed in the reports are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. The reports are non-inclusive and do not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments. We shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports nor do they take guarantee or assume liability for any omissions of the information contained therein. Information contained therein cannot be the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. These data, reports and information do not constitute scientific publication and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever. The user should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of investment and also read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Markets and

Derivative Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in the Indian Markets. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decision based on their own investment objectives, goals and financial position and based on their own analysis. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements, if any, are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to material we take no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk. The author of this Research Report accepts no liability and will not in any way be responsible for the contents of this report or for any losses, costs, expenses, charges, including notional losses/lost opportunities incurred by a recipient as a result of acting or non-acting on any information/material contained in the report. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or an attempt to influence the opinion or behavior of investors or recipients or provide any investment/tax advice. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

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HDFC's teaser loan portfolio will get reset to floating rates, ..... We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant ...

hdfc bank.pdf
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q[OlllOl k (fj) Union Bank - Union Bank of India
Sep 18, 2015 - the Insurance Company and is in no way responsible for ... hereby authorize the bank to recover the insurance premium, as decided ... shall act as an intermediary in providing the data to the Insurance Company and is no way.

UNITED BANK OF INDIA (A Government of India Undertaking) Head ...
Aug 3, 2013 - (website: www.unitedbankofindia.com). Opening Date of ONLINE ... Should have domain knowledge in the field. It would be an added ...

Reserve Bank of India Bank Medical Consultant Recruitment 2017.pdf
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DEPOSIT CHALLAN - United Bank of India
Depositor's Signature : Contact No- ... E. DEPOSIT CHALLAN. (To be filled in by the candidate). To be attached to the application form. ( photocopy may be ...

Bank of India NEUTRAL -
This led to a sequential de-growth of 9% in Net Interest Income, ... 4QFY2009 qoq growth. (%). Commission, Exchange &. Brokerage. 263. 230. 14. 311. (15).