Giant Oil Fields of the World Presentation AIM Industrial Contact Day Monday 23rd May 2005 Fredrik Robelius M.Sc. Petroleum Engineering (almost…) M.Sc. Engineering Physics
Introduction Peak oil
Is Peak Oil here now 80,000
1,600,000,000 Prod 1955-2002 Prod 2003-2020 Forecast
70,000
1,400,000,000 cum prod -2002
1,200,000,000
50,000
1,000,000,000
40,000
800,000,000
30,000
600,000,000
20,000
400,000,000
10,000
200,000,000
0
1000 b
1000 b/d
cum prod 2002-2020 Forecast 60,000
0 1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Or have we heard all this before???
Oil Crisis in relation to oil price 90.00 Oil Price in US$ 2003 80.00
5) Pricepanic 1979-81
70.00
US Dollar
60.00 4) Yom Kippur war 1973
50.00
6) UN Iraq embargo 1990
40.00
30.00
20.00
1) Nationalization of Anglo-Iranian 1951
10.00
0.00 1945
3) Six day war 1967
7) War in Iraq 2003
2) Suez crisis 1956
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: BP Statistical Review
Common factors: • Geographic • The oil did not reach the market • Media and some governments: We are running out of oil!
Today - Same old story again? or is the oil price a bad parameter? Source: CIA World Fact Book
Definitions • Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR) – cumulative production plus the estimated remaining reserves • Gb – Giga barrel = 109 barrels = billion barrels = 0.159x109 m3 =159 million m3 • Giant Oil Field – an oilfield with estimated ultimate recoverable oil of more than 500 million barrels (>0.5 Gb)
The Important Parameter – Giant Fields Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to:
• Number of fields • URR • Daily Production Giant Oil Fields ~1 % Other Oil Fields ~99 %
URR of the Giant Oil Fields >50%
Production from the 100 largest giants Other Oil Field <50% Production URR from other oil fields < 50%
>50%
Källa: AAPG, OGJ, Simmons & Company International
Top 18 Giant Fields Field Name
Country Discovery Range of year URR [GB]
Ghawar
Saudi Arabia
1948
66-100
Burgan Greater
Kuwait
1938
32-60
Safaniya
Saudi Arabia
1951
21-36
Bolivar Coastal
Venezuela
1917
14-36
Berri
Saudi Arabia
1964
10-25
Rumalia N&S
Iraq
1953
22
Zakum
Abu Dhabi
1964
17-21
Cantarell Complex Mexico
1976
11-20
Manifa
Saudi Arabia
1957
17
Kirkuk
Iraq
1927
16
Gashsaran
Iran
1928
12-15
Abqaiq
Saudi Arabia
1941
10-15
Ahwaz
Iran
1958
13-15
Marun
Iran
1963
12-14
Samotlor
Russia
1961
6-14
Agha Jari
Iran
1937
6-14
Zuluf
Saudi Arabia
1965
12-14
Prudhoe Bay
Alaska
1969
13
Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA
Where are the giant fields?
Discovery Trends of Giant Fields 300 275 250
Discovered Recoverable Reserves in Giant Fields [Gb] Number of Giant Oil Fields Discovered
225
Gb & Number
200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1850-1899 1900-1909 1910-1919 1920-1929 1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999
Source: AAPG, UHDSG
Discovery of Giant Fields • 35 giant oil fields discovered during last decade • None of the fields will have a production capability above 1,000,000 b/d • The largest fields discovered the last decade: Field
Country
Discovery Ultimate Year Recoverable Reserves [Gb]
Kashagan
Kazakhstan
2000
7-9
Azadegan
Iran
1999
6-9
Roncador
Brazil
1996
2.9
Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia
1991
1.6
Sihil
Mexico
1999
1.4
Ourhoud
Algeria
1994
1.2
Thunder Horse
US GoM
1999
1-1.5 Source: AAPG, OGJ
Comparison of number of fields and their URR Field Name
Country Discovery Range of year URR [GB]
Field
Country
Discovery Ultimate Year Recoverable Reserves [Gb]
Ghawar
Saudi Arabia
1948
66-100
Kashagan
Kazakhstan
2000
7-9
Burgan Greater
Kuwait
1938
32-60
Azadegan
Iran
1999
6-9
Safaniya
Saudi Arabia
1951
21-36
Roncador
Brazil
1996
2.9
Bolivar Coastal
Venezuela
1917
14-36
Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia
1991
1.6
Berri
Saudi Arabia
1964
10-25
Sihil
Mexico
1999
1.4
Rumalia N&S
Iraq
1953
22
Ourhoud
Algeria
1994
1.2
Zakum
Abu Dhabi
1964
17-21
Thunder Horse
US GoM
1999
1-1.5
Cantarell Complex Mexico
1976
11-20
Manifa
Saudi Arabia
1957
17
Kirkuk
Iraq
1927
16
Gashsaran
Iran
1928
12-15
Abqaiq
Saudi Arabia
1941
10-15
Ahwaz
Iran
1958
13-15
Marun
Iran
1963
12-14
Samotlor
Russia
1961
6-14
Agha Jari
Iran
1937
6-14
Zuluf
Saudi Arabia
1965
12-14
Prudhoe Bay
Alaska
1969
13
Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA
Production from Cusiana/Cupiagua 500,000
900,000,000
Daily Prod Cum Prod
450,000
800,000,000
400,000 Daily Prod (b/d)
350,000
600,000,000
300,000 500,000,000 250,000 400,000,000 200,000 300,000,000
150,000
200,000,000
100,000
100,000,000
50,000 0
0 1991
1996
2001 Source: AAPG, OGJ
Cum Prod (b)
700,000,000
Production from Cantarell 2,500,000
12,000,000,000
Daily Prod Cum Prod
Daily Prod (b/d)
8,000,000,000 1,500,000 6,000,000,000 1,000,000 4,000,000,000 500,000
2,000,000,000
0
0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000 Source: AAPG, OGJ
Cum Prod (b)
10,000,000,000
2,000,000
Oil Production from Mexico and their Giant Oil Fields 3,500,000 Mexico Oil Production Mexico Giant Fields Production
Daily Production (b/d)
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: OGJ, AAPG, PEMEX, UHDSG
Oil Production from Norway and their Giant Oil Fields 4,000,000
Daily Production (b/d)
3,500,000
Norway Total Norway Giants
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000 Source: NPD
Oil Production from Saudi Arabia and Ghawar Oil Field 10,000,000 9,000,000
Saudi Oil Production Ghawar Production
Daily Production (b/d)
8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: OGJ, AAPG, Saudi Aramco, UHDSG
Conclusion 20 years ago, 15 fields had the capacity to produce more than 1,000,000 b/d. Today only four field can produce that much: • • • •
Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), 1948 Kirkuk (Iraq), 1938 Burgan Greater (Kuwait), 1927 Cantarell (Mexico), 1976
Conclusion • Producing regions will have a peak • The Middle East is a key factor • The giants are getting smaller, both to size and number • When will the peak be? It depends on the: demand for oil, future exploration and the decline of the giants My guess/prediction is around 2010
