JANUARY 2008 562
Online
Geo file
Paul Guinness
The United States: Population Update Figure 1: Population of the USA, 1900-2006, showing growth 1950-60 to 2000-2004
Record census-to-census increase 1990-2000
300
The total population of the United States increased from 248.7 million in April 1990 to 281.4 million in April 2000 (Figure 1), the date of the last census. This amounted to an increase of 13.2%. This was the largest censusto-census increase in American history. The previous record increase was 28 million between 1950 and 1960, a result mainly of the postSecond World War baby boom. Total decennial (10 year) population growth declined steadily in the three decades following the 1950s before increasing again in the 1990s. However, in relative terms the growth in population between 1950 and 1960 was greater than in the last decade. As birth and death rates registered very little change in the 1990s the recent increase in population growth was due to a significantly higher rate of immigration.
GeoFile Series 26 Issue 2 Fig 562_01 Mac/eps/illustrator 11 s/s 2004 but there are other topics produces annual estimates for many NELSON THORNES PUBLISHING where the latest information still aspects of population. At the time of Russell Artist: David Illustration
Although a census only occurs once every 10 years in the USA , the United States Census Bureau
writing the latest available publication was the Statistical Abstract of the United States 2006. Here, data for some topics is for
Growth (millions) Percentage change
280 260
30
220 200
25
180 160
20
140 120
15
100 10
80 60
5
40 20
0 1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
10 1900
Population growth (millions) & % change
Overall population (millions)
240
relates to 2000. As Figure 1 shows, the population is estimated to have increased by over 12 million from 2000 to 2004. In October 2006 the
Figure 2: Population by state, 2004 (millions) NORTHEAST
MIDWEST West North Central North Dakota 0.6
Mountain Washington 6.2 Montana 0.9
10.4
Illinois 12.7
Wyoming 0.5
40
Kansas 2.7
Nevada 2.3
Utah 2.4
California 35.9
Arizona 5.7
Virginia 7.5
4.1 Kentucky
Colorado 4.6
New Mexico 1.9
Texas 22.5
2.9
4.5
East South Central
SOUTH
0
GeoFile Series 26 Issue 2 Fig 562_02 Mac/eps/illustrator 11 s/s NELSON THORNES PUBLISHING Artist: David Russell Illustration
Conneticut 3.5 Delaware 0.8 Maryland 5.6
S. Carolina 4.1
7.4 a1 rid
West South Central
Georgia 8.8
Flo
4.5 Louisiana
Rhode Island 1.1
N. Carolina 8.5
Tennessee 5.9 Arkansas 2.8
Hawaii 1.3
Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2008
W. Virginia 1.8
6.2
Missouri 5.8
Oklahoma 3.5
New Hampshire 1.3
Pennsylvania 12.4
Ohio 11.4
Alabama
Key
New York 19.2
Iowa 3.0
Nebraska 1.7
Idaho 1.4
Maine 1.3
New Jersey 8.7
Ind ian a
Oregon 3.6
Massachussetts 6.4
Wisconsin 5.5
South Dakota 0.8
New England
Vermont 0.6
Middle Atlantic
Minnesota 5.1
Mississippi
Pacific
East North Central
n
Alaska 0.7
Mic hig a
WEST
South Atlantic
January 2008 no.562 The United States: Population Update
Eight states recorded a numerical increase of more than one million between 1990 and 2000. These were California (4.1 million), Texas (3.9 million), Florida (3 million), Georgia (1.7 million), Arizona (1.5 million), North Carolina (1.4 million), Washington (1 million) and Colorado (1 million). Texas has replaced New York as America’s second most populous state (Figure 2), the first time since 1810 that New York has not been first or second. However, California remains by far the largest of the states in population size, with almost 36 million people (2004), 12.2% of the nation’s population. The second and third most populous states – Texas at 22.5 million and New York at 19.2 million – together accounted for 14.2% of the country’s population. An additional 28% of the population live in the next seven most populous states – Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, and Georgia. No state recorded a fall in population between 1990 and 2000, although North Dakota (+3,400) and West Virginia (+14,867) came close. The District of Columbia, the federal capital, which of course is not a state, recorded a population decrease of 5.7%. While the 10 most populous states contained 54% of the population in 2000, the 10 least populous states accounted for only 3% of the total population. Wyoming remained the least populous state, with only 493,000 people. Six other states (Montana, Delaware, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska and Vermont) still have populations below one million. Figure 2 shows the 2004 estimates for the population of each state.
The shift to the South and West continues The US population is still shifting away from its industrial heartland in the Northeast and Midwest (the ‘Frostbelt’), towards the Sunbelt states of the South and West (Table 1). The Northeast region has seen its share of the US population drop from 21.7% in 1980 to 19% in 2000 Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2008
Table 1: USA population in millions Region & division
1980
%
%
2000
%
2004
%
United States
226.5
100.0 248.7
100.0
281.4
100.0
293.7
100.0
Northeast: New England Middle Atlantic
49.1 12.3 36.8
21.7 55. 16.2
50.8 13.2 37.6
20.4 5.3 15.1
53.6 13.9 39.7
19.0 4.9 14.1
54.6 14.2 40.3
18.6 4.9 13.7
Midwest: East North Central West North Central
58.9 41.7 17.2
26.0 18.4 7.6
59.7 42.0 17.7
24.0 16.9 7.1
64.4 45.2 19.2
22.9 16.1 6.8
65.7 46.0 19.7
22.4 15.7 6.7
South: South Atlantic East South Central West South Central
75.4 37.0 14.7 23.7
33.3 16.3 6.5 10.5
85.5 43.6 15.2 26.7
34.4 17.5 6.1 10.7
100.2 51.8 17.0 31.4
35.6 18.4 6.0 11.2
105.4 54.6 17.5 33.3
35.8 18.6 5.9 11.3
West: Mountain Pacific
43.2 11.4 31.8
19.1 5.0 14.0
52.8 13.7 39.1
21.2 5.5 15.7
63.2 18.2 45.0
22.5 6.5 16.0
67.4 19.8 47.6
23.0 6.7 16.2
1990
Figure 3: US birth rate and death rate, 1945-2005 30 25 20
Per 1000
United States is estimated to have reached the 300 million population milestone.
US birth rate
15 10 US death rate 5 0 1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
and 18.6% in 2004. The Midwest’s located in the Mountain census share of total population fell from division, GeoFile Series 26 Issue the 2 area with the lowest 562_03 s/s 26% to 22.9% and then toFig 22.4% inMac/eps/illustrator population11density in the United NELSON THORNES PUBLISHING the same period. The relative decline States. Nevada has been the Artist: David Russell Illustration of these two regions began of course country’s fastest growing state for much earlier in the 20th century, each of the past four decades. due mainly to the contraction of a range of traditional industries such The long-term shift in population, as coal-mining, iron and steel, heavy wealth and political power towards engineering, textiles, shipbuilding, the West and the South has occurred and apparel. In the relatively for a number of reasons: sparsely populated agricultural states • the warm climate of the Sunbelt of the Midwest the decline in the makes it an attractive place for agricultural workforce has been an industries to locate and for important factor in demographic workers to live trends for some time. • generally cheaper land, lower taxes and low trade union In contrast both the South and the membership have been attractive West have recorded significant to industry population increases. However, one • the location of important raw anomaly is apparent here - the materials, for example oil and gas relatively impoverished East South in Texas and California have Central division has experienced attracted high levels of population decrease in both of the investment last two decades (1980-1990 and the Interstate Highway System • 1990 to 2000). has considerably improved the accessibility of the South and the The population of twelve states West in recent decades increased by at least 20% between Pacific and Gulf Coast ports have • 1990 and 2000, led by Nevada expanded at a rapid rate as trade (66.3%), Arizona (40.0%), Colorado with Asia, South America and (30.6%), Utah (29.6%), and Idaho Australasia has expanded (28.5%). These five states are all
January 2008 no.562 The United States: Population Update Figure 4: US population pyramids, 2000 and 2030
Men
2000
2003
90+ 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4
90+ 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4
• universities in the South and West are producing many more highly skilled graduates than 30 or 40 years ago. The level of both privately and publicly funded research and development has been expanding significantly, resulting in a much higher level of innovation in the Sunbelt.
Birth and death rates Although the USA has been in Stage 4 of the demographic transition model for some time, its rate of natural increase is just about the largest in the developed world (Figure 3). In 2003 the birth rate was 14.1/1000 and the death rate 8.4/1000. The USA’s ‘demographic exceptionalism’ has seen a total fertility rate (TFR) of between 2.0 and 2.1 in recent years, compared to Europe’s 1.4. The USA’s TFR is just below replacement level fertility, something highly unusual in the developed world (Figure 3).
Women
Men
By 2030 many of the baby-boom generation will have died, as the GeoFile Series 26 Issue 2 peopleFig born early in this period will 562_04 Mac/eps/illustrator 11 s/s be overNELSON 80. TheTHORNES median age of the PUBLISHING population was 33 in 1990Illustration and is Artist: David Russell projected to be 42 in 2030. As the population pyramid ages it not only shows decreasing numbers but also the ‘feminising’ of the population, due to gender differences in mortality with increasing age. The age-sex structure of the population can vary considerably by state. States such as Alaska have a relatively ‘young’ population because people of working age move to them for employment. In contrast, Florida has a relatively ‘old’ population because of its popularity as a retirement location. However, population pyramids are influenced not only by who moves in, but also by who moves out. Many rural areas have older populations because so many young people have left in search of better economic opportunities.
Age-sex structure Over the last century the population pyramid for the United States has changed from a ‘pyramid’ to a skyscraper’ shape as the population has aged (Figure 4). The population bulge due to the ‘baby-boom’ period has impacted on successive US population pyramids since the postwar period. As the baby-boom bulge has aged, it has placed different demands on the US economy. It has required more: • • • •
schools in the 1950s and 1960s jobs in the 1980s houses in the 1990s and it will require more social security resources between 2010 and 2030.
Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2008
Immigration In the period 1991 to 2000, immigration exceeded 9 million. Although this was higher than the ‘immigration decade’ of 1901 to 1910, the rate of immigration was significantly lower because of the much higher total population in the latter period. The lowest figure recorded since 1990 was 2.3/1000 in 1999. Immigration into the USA is very spatially selective, with over half of all immigration going to just four states – California, New York, Florida and Texas. The main reasons for such concentration are:
Women
• the location of existing immigrant communities • the availability of employment in the four most populous states • the land border with Mexico, and Florida’s proximity to the Caribbean. Immigration is a very controversial issue in the USA. Its supporters see immigration as one of the most important aspects of the country’s economic success, while its opponents point to increasing pressure on the environment, employment, and the changing character of the country in general.
Metropolitan areas grow fastest In 2000, 80.3% of Americans were resident in metropolitan areas, a slight increase on the 79.8% recorded in 1990. The population in metropolitan areas increased by 14%, while the nonmetropolitan population grew by 10%. Almost 30% of Americans live in metropolitan areas containing at least five million people. However, these major metropolitan areas recorded the lowest growth rates of all sizes of metropolitan area. In contrast, metropolitan areas with populations between two and five million grew the fastest, up almost 20%. New York, the most populous metropolitan area in the USA, passed the 20 million mark in the last decade with an increase of 8.4%. Los Angeles, in second place, now tops 16 million people. The growth in metropolitan area populations follows the general
January 2008 no.562 The United States: Population Update spatial pattern of population change in the United States with the Sunbelt states leading the way. Twenty-four metropolitan areas increased their populations by more than 30% between 1990 and 2000, with Las Vegas leading the way with an astounding 83.3% increase. Of the metropolitan areas with populations of over five million in 1990, Washington-Baltimore grew at the fastest rate, 13.1%. Twenty-four of the USA’s 280 metropolitan areas actually recorded a fall in population. The largest casualties on this list were Pittsburgh (-1.5%) and Buffalo-Niagara Falls (-1.6%). The greatest population increase among the larger metropolitan areas was the 29.3% recorded in Dallas-Fort Worth. The faster growth of metropolitan areas compared to non-metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2000 might at first sight be seen as a reversal of the counterurbanisation process evident in previous decades. However, by definition, metropolitan areas invariably contain rural areas which are adjacent to the continuous built-up area as county boundaries are used to delimit metropolitan areas. Much more detailed analysis of the data will be required to come to a conclusion on the counterurbanisation issue.
City populations In the 20th century massive suburbanisation saw American urban areas grew well beyond their original city boundaries which today correspond roughly to the inner city areas of metropolitan areas. Cities generally contain the oldest and poorest quality housing within the metropolitan area. Compared to the suburbs population density is high and residents are mainly on low incomes with many belonging to racial minority groups. Thus New York City has a population of just over 8 million, less than half that of the metropolitan area. Eight of the 10 largest cities increased in population between 1990 and 2000; only Philadelphia and Detroit declined in size. New York City recorded the largest numerical increase, for the first time since the 1930s. Los Angeles gained the most population in each of the decades from the 1940s through the 1980s, with the exception of the 1970s, when Houston recorded the Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2008
largest increase. In the last decade, Phoenix was the fastest growing of the 10 largest cities, up by 34%. Population size not only decides political representation it also, to an extent, determines the level of funding that cities are entitled to. Many federal and state programmes apportion their money partly on the basis of population statistics. Thus, cities such as Detroit and Philadelphia will be concerned about the financial repercussions of population decline.
Population by race In 2000, 75.1% of Americans were classified as White, 12.3% as Black or African American, 3.6% as Asian, 0.9% as American Indian and Alaska Native, and 0.1% as Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. Of the remainder, 5.5% were classified as ‘Some other race’ and 2.4% as ‘Two or more races’. For those recorded as being of ‘one race’: • 32% of Black or African Americans live in the South Atlantic division, with 54.8% living in the South region as a whole. • 45.4% of America’s Asian population live in the Pacific division. • The American Indian and Alaska Native population is heavily concentrated in the West, the residence of 48% of people in this group. • The West North Central division has the highest percentage of population recorded as ‘White’(88.4%) followed by New England (86.6%).
For the Hispanic or Latino population (of any race), the highest concentration is in the Pacific division (33.4%), with the West South Central following in second place (19.9%).
The political impact of population change The most fundamental reason for conducting the decennial census of the United States is to determine the number of members of the House of Representatives (435 in total) each of the 50 states is entitled to have. An apportionment has been made on the basis of each decennial census from 1790 to 2000, except following the 1920 census. The distribution of members in the other chamber of the US Congress, the Senate, is unaffected by the apportionment process, as the Constitution provides two senators for each state. As a result of Census 2000, four states increased their membership in the House of Representatives by two seats each. These were Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas. In contrast, both New York and Pennsylvania lost two seats. California, with 53 representatives dominates the House, followed by Texas (32), New York (29) and Florida (25). As a result of their relatively low populations, seven states have only one representative in the House. These are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.
Focus Questions 1. What are the reasons for the steady shift in population to the South and West in the USA? 2. Describe and explain the differences between the two population pyramids shown in Figure 4. 3. Suggest reasons for the variations in the USA’s immigration rate during the 20th century.
