PICMET 2008 Proceedings, 27-31 July, Cape Town, South Africa (c) 2008 PICMET

Future Perspectives on Nanotechnology/Material Development: Delphi Studies and Sci-Tech Policies in Japan, Mainland China and Taiwan 1

Hsin-Ning Su1, Pei-Chun Lee1,2 Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan 2 Graduate Institute of Technology and Innovation Management, National Cheng Chi University, Taipei, Taiwan

Abstract--Nanotechnology, which is a cross-border technology transforming the world’s economy, plays a crucial role in recent science and technology developments. Japan and Taiwan which have paid a lot of attention on material research and development, together with the emerging mainland China, have been the three key players in nanotechnology and material developments in east Asia. This study is to compare Delphi studies on material and nanotechnology fields for the three countries which share the similarities in the aspects of language, culture and geography. In additions, the linkage between Delphi study and Sci-Tech policy will also be discussed in this study in order to approach the social contexts of national Sci-Tech developments in the three countries.

I. INTRODUCTION TO DELPHI-BASED TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AS A POLICY TOOL The Delphi-based method, e.g. technology foresight, is usually used to look into the long-term future (20-30 years) of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technology [1, 2]. It is based on “structural surveys and makes use of the intuitive available information of the participants, who are mainly experts. Therefore, it delivers qualitative as well as quantitative results and has beneath its explorative, predictive.” [3]

Delphi methodology is initiated by Rand Corporation of the US in the 1950s [4, 5], but Japan is the first country that started holistic Delphi-based foresight activities at the national level in the early 1970s. These initial efforts were followed by the practices of European governments [6]. Strategic decision making and prioritization have become inevitable for countries with limited resource. Delphi-based technology foresight has recently drawn global attention, particularly for developing countries, due to the intensifying global economics. The concept of “work smart” has replaced “work hard” in countries which have limited resources and desires of upgrading their economic structures to knowledge based ones. Science and technology development, the fundamental factor of economic growth, are the result of complex relationships among actors in the system [7]. The Delphi study can help policy making authorities understand how to improve complex networking relationship among actors and institutions in the innovation system and thus technology development as well as long term economic growth can be expected [8]. As supported by Anderson [9], possible advantages for the Delphi study can be: 1) Forge new partnerships, 2) Identify generic technologies, and 3) Develop consensus on national priorities [9]. Georghiou and Keenan [10] proposed some examples of rationale for Delphibased foresight and associated evaluation issues, as shown in Table I.

TABLE I SOME EXAMPLES OF RATIONALE FOR FORESIGHT AND ASSOCIATE EVALUATION ISSUES. [10] Rationale for foresight What does it do? Expected outcomes? Evaluation focus? Policy decisions, resource Attribution of decisions to Highlights the longer term allocations foresight Providing policy advice and extends perspectives More rational decision Changes in decision-making making over space and time processes Highlights challenges in an New emerging networks and interaction space around communities Nature of networks Building advocacy coalitions which interest groups Wide commitment to Actions undertaken by them coalesce realization of a shared vision Numbers and breadth of Provides a ‘hybrid forum’ Broadened participation, actors involved Providing social forums for strategic reflection, democratic renewal Focus and quality of debates debate and action Benefits to participants

The Delphi-based “Technology foresight” has been regarded as a valuable methodology for government to “work smart” to enhance national innovation system. For example, Japan’s NISTEP (National Institute of Science and Technology Policy) conducted the 8th Foresight activity and results were used as input for Japan’s third science and technology basic plan. [11]

II. SETTING NANOTECHNOLOGY POLICIES FOR PARADIGM SHIFT As described by Dosi in 1984 for defining a paradigm shift,“Changing economic conditions clearly interact with the process of selection of new technologies, with their development and finally with their obsolescence and substitution” [12]. According to Kuhn [13], the pattern

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seeking for non-linear scientific jump can be described as “paradigm shift” to refer to the mark of maturity of a science. Freeman and Perez [14, 15] defined it as the term “technoeconomic paradigm” to indicate an innovation that affects the whole economy. The paradigm shift which gives rise to drastic change of elements inputted to a technology will also lead to new types of technological trajectory, as shown in Fig. 2 [16].

Wonglimpiyarat [17] suggested that nanotechnology represents a progression from normal science to problem solving theory in the manufacturing industry, and is the latest technological change to provide a foundation for further technological advancement in the future, which implies nanotechnology is the enabler of a new paradigm shift. The drastic nanotechnology revolution has already brought significant impact to the world, and induced related researches and policies, Table II shows nanotechnology researches and policies in selected Asian countries [17] In following sections, this paper will present a new trend in Japan, Mainland China and Taiwan which, now or in the future, put emphasis on nanotechnology in national level and anticipate greater integration between policy making and the foster of new industries. The material/nanotechnology trend obtained by Delphi studies in this paper together with the consolidated routines inside the country/economy are essential for deriving strategies sustainable enough in a paradigm shift resulted from nanotechnology.

Fig. 2. Elements affecting technology trajectory.[16].

Country Japan

China

Taiwan

Korea

Thailand

Malaysia

Singapore

TABLE II NANOTECHNOLOGY RESEARCHES AND POLICIES IN ASIAN COUNTRIES [17] Research policies and activities Nanotechnology is ranked as an important field in the Second Science and Technology Basic Plan of the Japanese government. In 2002, the Japanese government announced the promotion of the ‘New Industry Development Strategy’ to tie nanotechnology and material science with new industries. Japan views the development of nanotechnology as the key to restoring its economy. In addition to government sponsored R&D, large corporations—Hitachi, Sony, Toray, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu, and Mitsui have invested in nanotechnology research The Chinese policy involved ‘Climbing Project on Nanometer Science’ (1990–1999). China has budgeted USD 240 million in less than five years from the central government and approximately USD 240–360 million from local governments for nanotechnology research. The areas of strength are development of nanoprobes and manufacturing processes using nanotubes Taiwan launched the National S&T Priority Program on Nanotechnology in Taiwan (NPNT) with a budget of USD 680 million for research in nanotechnology. The implementing mechanism of fund allocation is according to a 20C/60/20-rule, with (1) 20% of the funding to be targeted towards nanotechnology with short-term commercial potentials, particularly those help upgrade the competitiveness of the traditional industries, (2) 60% of the R&D resources to be invested in the fields that will impact future competitiveness of current Taiwan hi-tech industries, (3) 20% of the project to be concentrated on the exploratory studies for potential applications that will generate innovative and new technologies The Korean government formulated the ‘Comprehensive Plan for Nanotechnology Development’ in 2001. It also launched a National Nanotechnology Program covering various fields whereby nonmaterial is one of the key research areas. The research projects are funded jointly by the government and the private sector. Major funding agencies are the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of commerce, Industry, and Energy. The research programs funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology are mostly basic nanotechnology while the Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy supports the research programs close to commercialization Research activities in the field of nanotechnology are intended to respond to scientific and technological needs of Thai government’s policy. The National Nanotechnology (Nanotech) is set up with an aim to increase Thailand’s competitiveness. The R&D areas of focus include advanced polymer, nanocarbon, nanoglass, nanometal, nanoparticles, nanocoating, nanosynthesis with applications to the industries of automotive, food, energy, environment, medicine and health The Malaysian government sets aside, under the eighth Malaysian Plan, USD 8 million for research in nanotechnology and precision engineering technology. The research projects in focus are nanophysics and nanochemistry. Malaysia currently invests in high-cost laboratories to incubate and develop new technologies, in an attempt to shift from a traditional manufacturing and assembly base into nano-R&D Singapore’s government policy in nanotechnology promotion is focused on disk storage and biological fields. In 2002, the National University of Singapore Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Initiative (NUSNNI) was established as an interdisciplinary group to accelerate nanotechnology business

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III. DELPHI STUDY ON NANOTECHNOLOGY AND/OR MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY Nanotechnology is the development and utilization of devices and structures with a size range from 1 nm to 100 nm. In comparison to bulk and molecular scale structures new physical and chemical properties occur with this scale. Interdisciplinary nanotechnology has been growing explosively in the past few years because nanotechnology can possibly occur in every conventional field if it is purposefully engineered. Due to the interdisciplinary nature of nanotechnology, USPTO began a project to identify nanotechnology-related U.S. documents (U.S. patents and U.S. pre-grant publications), subsequently nanotechnologyrelated patents, designated Class 977, was established in August 2004 [18]. But it was the case for USPTO only and can not be completely applied elsewhere. In most cases, nanotechnology is still mixed with conventional “material technology”, this can also be observed in those national Delphi-based technology foresight activities. For instance, the “material” area in Japan’s 7th (2001) national technology foresight survey was upgraded to “material and nanotechnology” in Japan’s 8th (2005) national technology foresight activity in order to cover “nano” related topics [19]. Three nanotechnology related topics are included in the “new material” technology foresight conducted by Chinese Minister of Science and Technology comprises in 2002. Unlike the mixture of both material and nano topics in above two cases, Taiwan’s STPI (Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center) has recently conducted a Delphi survey for nanotechnology [20]. In European counterpart, however, Danish nano-science and nanotechnology foresight project was undertaken in 2004 by the Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation [21]. German Mini-Delphi study conducted in 1995 comprises Nanotechnology subsection [22]. It is to be expected that the interdisciplinary and cross-boundary nanotechnology will be more isolated from conventional fields and treated as an explicit new area and after greater public perception of the emerging technology. Organizational Background for national nanotechnology/material technology Delphi-based activities in Japan, China and Taiwan: 1) Japan: MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) initiated Delphi-based technology foresight in the early 1970s. The periodic survey has been conducted every 5 years by NISTEP. Each survey aims to forecasting long-term trends in selected fields of science and technology for the next 30 years [23]. 2) China (a) The MST (Ministry of Science and Technology) has commissioned NRCSTD (National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development) to conduct Delphi-based technology foresight survey since 2002 to

approach technologies which will meet with China's socioeconomic requirement [24]. The activity is designated as “China-MST” in Table III. (b) The IPM (Institute of Policy and Management) of the CAS (Chinese Academy of Sciences) has carried out Delphibased survey from 2003 to 2005. Total 32 subareas and 409 technology topics were selected [25]. The activity is designated as “China-CAS” in Table III. 3) Taiwan None holistic government’s Delphi-based technology foresight has been conducted yet, but a Delphi survey for Taiwan nanotechnology development has been carried out by a non-profit organization –Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center (STPI) in 2006. The selected fields cover Nano material, Nano electronic and semiconductor, and Nano biomedicine. In comparison with the above mentioned Japanese and Chinese government supported technology foresight, the scale of Taiwanese investigation is relatively smaller in terms of numbers of questionnaires and expert participants [20], and STPI’s survey is not commissioned by government. IV. NANOTECHNOLOGY/MATERIAL DOMAINS AND TOPICS Table III shows subdomains of the four investigated Delphi-based studies, from which it can be observed that Japan has relative broad consideration for its material development ranging from theoretical calculation (Nanomaterials modeling simulation) to material application (e.g. Nano processing, molding, and manufacturing technology, Nano devices and sensors), and even societal concern and environmental issue are considered (Environment and energy materials, Nanoscience for a safe and secure society). Even thought China and Taiwan are mainly focusing on development of new technology and lack of consideration of material impact on society, China covers developments of more types of material – structural material (High performance structural material), electronic material (e.g. Electronic information material), polymer, metallic material, ceramic material…etc, due to its large scale of diverse market requirement. In contrast to China, Taiwan mainly focuses on electronic/semiconductor, bio related materials and manufacturing techniques because of its relatively smaller market size and conventional electronic dominant industry. A technological system has a trajectory, which is the direction in which it develops, and which is shaped by a number of physical and social factors [25]. Dosi [26, 27] described a technological paradigm as an outlook, a set of procedures, a definition of the relevant problems and of the specific knowledge related to their solution for selected techno-economic problems based on highly selected principles. Once a paradigm is chosen, the technological artifacts developed within this paradigm are improved. This improvement pattern is a technological trajectory.

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TABLE III SUBDOMAINS OF LATEST NANOTECHNOLOGY/MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT OR DELPHI STUDY OF JAPAN, CHINA AND TAIWAN Country No. of Field Subdomains (In charge organization) Topics Nanomaterials modeling simulation Nano measurement and analysis technology Nano processing, molding, and manufacturing technology Matter and materials origination, synthesis technology and process technology Nanotechnology Japan (NISTEP) New materials from nanolevel structure control 70 and Material Nano devices and sensors NEMS technology Environment and energy materials Nanobiology Nanoscience for a safe and secure society High performance structural material New function material China-MST (NRCSTD) New Materials 64 Electronic information material Nanomaterial Polymer material Metallic material Inorganic and ceramic material China-CAS (IPM) Material Science 86 Functional material Photoelectronic material Nanomaterial Nanomaterial Nanopowder manufacturing Nanotemplate manufacturing Nano self-assembly technique Nanosomposite technique Nano structure and process simulation Nanoelectronis/semiconductor technique Nanoelectronic Taiwan (STPI) Nanotechnology 37 Nano optoelectricand optical communication Nanostorage Nano display material and device technique Nanobiomedical technique Nano biomedical analysis technique Nano biomedical measurement technique Nano biomedical material technique Nano biomedicine technique Note: NISTEP: National Institute of Science and Technology Policy MST: Ministry of Science and Technology NRCSTD: National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences IPM: Institute of Policy and Management STPI: Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center

The paradigm conception of technological change was emerged in the early 1980's. This paper focuses on selected Asian countries which have been road-mapped for drawing preferential technological trajectories. The purpose of Delphi study is to identify potential technologies and technological trends that will very likely contribute to economic growth and social upliftment. The Delphi results will subsequently be served as reference for bringing different sectors/stakeholders together, i.e. government, industry, research, education, etc to obtain a macro scenario. The macro scenario can be used for better understanding the environment in which the aforementioned stakeholders will be playing in the future of ten to twenty years. The top ten important topics of China-CAS and Japan Delphi-based technology foresight are listed in Table IV and Table V, The similarities or dissimilarities can be further

analyzed to understand technology trajectories of both countries. The similar topics shared by China and Japan indicate Asian or possible global future perspectives, since China and Japan are two of the most important countries influential enough to dominate Asian technology ecology. The similar topics of the two Top 10 proposed by both countries are (1) solar cell technique, (2) hydrogen production from water, and (3) synthesis of polymer from non-fossil resource (Table IV, V). Interestingly, the three similar topics shared by both countries are all energy related, indicating the significant awareness of global energy crisis in Asia. On the contrarily, the dissimilar topics are those resulted from different technology backgrounds of the two countries. For instance, enhancement of some conventional material techniques can be found in China’s Top 10 topic, e.g. light and strong metallic material high performance

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rubber, which are not shown in Japan’s Top 10 counter part. However, Bio related technology, e.g. Bio chip, Nanocarrier systems, found in Japan’s Top 10 topics can not be observed in China’s Top 10 topics.

nano particle” which implies that biotechnology is expected to be a new potential area in future Taiwan. But unfortunately, energy related topic is absent in Taiwan’s Top 10.

TABLE IV TOP 10 IMPORTANT TECHNIQUES IN CHINA-CAS’S “MATERIAL SCIENCE” TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT. Ranking China-CAS’s topics Development of solar cell material with conversion 1 rate higher than 50% Large scale application of light and strong metallic 2 material 3 Large scale application of high performance rubber Wide application of technique for synthesis of polymer 4 from non-fossil resource 5 Wide application of organic photo-electronic material Wide application of white semiconductor light 6 technique 7 Practical application of Hydrogen storage material Practical application of super high density magnetic 8 storage material and device 9 Breakthrough of Hydrogen production from water Wide application of organic and ceramic material on 10 multi-functional and smart micro transducer

TABLE VI TOP 10 COMPETITIVE TECHNIQUES IN TAIWAN’S “NANOTECHNOLOGY” DELPHI STUDY Ranking Taiwan’s topics 1 Disc recording technique 2 Nano coating technique 3 Epitaxy technique and measurement Preparation and detection methods of fluorescent nano 3 particle 4 Application process for polymeric optical thin film 4 Optic Write/Magnetic Read technique 4 Antibacterial TiO2 nano particle technique 5 Polymeric nano composite manufacturing technique Synthesis of polymeric optical display substrate 5 material 5 Technique for linking bio molecular and nano particle

On the contrarily to the US with well-developed infrastructure and a large-scaled economy, Asian countries with limited resource introduced to basic science researches seek for maximizing the opportunities of wide and practical application of some critical techniques by which their competitivenesses can hopefully be advanced. In addition, the three Top 10 topics can be based on to create a future scenario for the three countries. It is depicted in this study that by the year of 2020-2025, China will seek for expanding its conventional material industry to the fields of electronics and information and even concern about energy issue, Japan will focus on nano-scaled manipulation on techniques to be applied in both conventional and novel fields to sustain its technical superiority and research capability in this globe. However, Taiwan will continue its global competitiveness in information hardware and electronic industry, together with advanced high-precision technique to measure or position devices, for being transferred to a knowledge-based society.

TABLE V TOP 10 IMPORTANT TECHNIQUES IN JAPAN’S “MATERIAL AND NANOTECHNOLOGY” TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT. Ranking Japan’s topics Production processing technology capable of 1 controlling dimensions and shapes with single nanometer precision Large-area amorphous silicon solar cells with a 2 conversion efficiency above 20 percent Hydrogen production processes through photocatalytic 3 decomposition of water with sunlight Biochip diagnostic systems that can accurately diagnose onset risk for cancer and other serious 4 diseases and supply information for setting treatment within a very short time Three-dimensional packing technology at the 5 nanometer scale Nanocarrier systems that deliver drugs and genes to 6 target cells in the body and are directed by outside signals Superconductors with transfer points at room 7 temperature and above Manufacture of materials with specified nanoscale 8 structure and characteristics through self-organization Scanning probe analysis methods that enable fixed 9 composition and quantitative property measurement at the nanometer scale Macromolecule synthesis processes that use renewable 10 resources in place of conventional petrochemical processing

V. TAIWAN’S STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE NANOTECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Taiwan’s Top 10 competitive techniques shown in Table VI are consistent to its continuous ambition in global information hardware (Disc recording technique, Optic write/magnet Read technique, Synthesis of polymeric optical display substrate) and electronic (Disc recording technique, Exptaxy technique and measurement, etc) industries together with No, 5 topic -“Technique for linking bio molecular and

In order to develop Taiwan’s competitiveness and to be part of this nanotechnology revolution, the Taiwan government started a six-year national program to develop nanotechnology. Accordingly, the National Science and Technology Program for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology was approved in June 2002 at the 5th Science and Technology Congress of the National Science Council. The program office consists of eight working groups including four execution groups and four R&D programs. The four R&D programs are 1) Academic Excellence Research Program, 2) Nanotechnology Industrialization Program, 3) Core Facilities Program, and 4) Education Program. Industrialization funding is 64% of the total funding, and indicates Taiwan’s National Science Program for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology is an industrialization driven program [28,

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29]. There are many organizations playing different roles in Taiwan’s nanotechnology industrialization process. A lot of interactions have been established among industry, government and academia. However, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) is one of the most important organizations that is directly in touch with industry and serves as a key technical center for industry. Taiwan’s technology policy formation process, same as that for the formation of “National Science and Technology Program for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology”, usually relies on expert panel meetings. However, it is proposed in the latest “White paper on Sciecne and Technology” of Taiwan [30] that government should start Delphi-based technology foresight investigation to obtain democratic consensus on long-term technology and societal development. It is definitely a great step for Taiwan to revise its old science and technology policy formation mechanism, even though it has been a bit late compared to Japan, China and many other countries, and actually none holistic Delphibased technology foresight activity has been conducted by Taiwan government, yet. However, we believe it very possible to be conducted sooner or later in order to obtain the way of allocating limited resource and strategically promote Taiwan’s technology competitiveness. In addition to policy formation mechanism and technology development, what also need to be noticed and improved are societal concerns in several aspects: 1) manpower building, 2) social environment, 3) innovation management...etc, which are easily missed in a well designed technology development system.

visions for their material technology developments. What material technology policy will be proposed by Taiwan, as an actor of the triangle system, has become more important in building a successful triangle. “How to leverage the three countries and reap reward from the dynamic innovative triangle?” and “How to obtain a sustainable interplay of balanced competitions and collaborations inside the triangle?” are critical questions that Taiwan government needs to answer on the basis of national consensus. Obviously, Delphi-based technology foresight can be a promising tool for obtaining not only national consensus but also optimal resource allocation in response to global technology competition. Nanotechology and material fields are selected in this study in order to demonstrate how technology development linkups with social context through technology foresight and also foster Taiwan government’s attention on this new policy formation mechanism. REFERENCES [1] [2]

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VI. CONCLUSION A technological paradigm is a set of scientific and technological rules that defines the opportunities for further innovations and provides some basic procedures on how to exploit them [26]. As paradigm shifts clearly have occurred in the past, it can be expected that similar paradigm shift would occur in the near future. From this point of view, nanotechnology can be seen as the sixth Kondratieff to bring revolutions in research arena. [17] National Technology foresight activity has been increasingly important to this globe, particularly for countries with limited resources or budgets and desire to seek for proper resource allocation. Japan, China, and Taiwan are three important countries with strong cultural interpenetrations in East Asia due to their past complex relations. However, this cultural interpenetration may or may not help the technology development in each of the three countries. The growing China and its prospective role in world affairs are too critical to be ignored in almost every aspect of this globe, and Japan’s role of high tech leader in the world will still be remained in the foreseeable future. The triangle formed among the three countries will be continuously reformed on the basis of the technology development policies of the three countries. Particularly in current situation that Japan and China already propose clear

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