2014-15 Enrollment Projections

TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

Dr. Marie H. Doyle, Superintendent of Schools, Longmeadow, MA Donald G. Kennedy, Ed.D., Demographic Specialist December 8, 2014 PM Enrollment Projections – Revised with School by School Projections

We are pleased to send you the enclosed documents displaying the past, present, and projected enrollments for the Longmeadow School District. We have used the figures given to us by the district and we assume that the method of collecting the enrollment data has been consistent from year to year. We are, however, a bit puzzled about the data sent to NESDEC- perhaps it may be a tally of “residents only”. Earlier this fall NESDEC sent to you a preliminary projection based upon the 2,744 K-12 students which Longmeadow had reported to us. Based upon these data, the projection forecasted a decline of an average of 42 students per year for the next decade. When School-by-School projections were requested, the district forwarded to NESDEC school-by-school enrollments for the most recent three school years. These SBS enrollments totaled 2,855 K-12 students for 2014-15, 111 more students than earlier submitted to NESDEC. It appears that these SBS numbers include choiced-in students, and seem to match the SIMS data reported to the DESE each fall. Thus NESDEC has created a Longmeadow file that matches the DESE’s database. Interestingly, this new database creates a forecast for a decline of only 36 K-12 students per year through 2024. As school-by-school projections need to match the district-wide projection, we have tied these together and are forwarding the revised district projections as well. School capacities are affected by changing school programs. With a lull in K-8 enrollments, shifts among the schools are less noticeable. The school-by-school projections do show shifts in earlier years, yet a bit more stability of numbers among the neighborhoods in recent years; school enrollments could shift rather quickly between the two middle schools. It is worth noting that this time of transition is the most difficult of the past 25 years to reliably forecast future enrollments, due to the irregular/uneven pace of communities recovering from the effects of the economic cycle

upon real estate markets and school enrollments. At the same time that births are down substantially, Longmeadow currently is undergoing occasional spots of increases in the number of new families with school-age children.

The two factors now at work which will have the greatest effect upon future enrollments are: a continuing slow pace in the number of births to Longmeadow residents and, to a greater degree, b. the possibility of new inmigration (which had slowed, due to the real estate slowdown). In the decade from 1999-2008, Longmeadow averaged 136 births per year; recently (and expected over the next 6-7 years) are about 86-104 births annually…averaging about 33 fewer per year than previously. Hard-hit Connecticut experienced an 8.6% decline in births from 2007 to 2009 (in part caused by the economic Recession), the largest decline among the six New England states – followed by an 8.1% decline in Rhode Island births, the two states with the highest rates of unemployment in the New England region – Massachusetts births declined by only 3.9% over these three years. Economists are forecasting a slow-yet-steady recovery from the current rates of unemployment which, in turn, may lead to additional in-migration and births (RI unemployment as of October 2014 was 7.4%; CT 6.4%; MA 6.0%; New England average 5.9%; US non-farm unemployment 5.8% (US unemployment was above 10% during the Great Recession); ME 5.8%; VT 4.4%; and NH 4.2% - other nearby states: NJ 6.6%; NY 6.0%; PA 5.4%). The ever-changing relationship between Longmeadow births and Kindergarten enrollments is displayed on the BK graph. Longmeadow, over the past seven years, has registered about 136 Kindergarteners for every 100 births (five years previous), a relationship which has been quite stable…this fall, however, there were a robust 145 Kindergarteners for every 100 births five-years-previous (Longmeadow’s third highest ratio in over a dozen years). The immediate reason for the difference is the increasing number of “net move-in’s” of children. Note, however, that in 2007 there were only 105 Kindergarteners for every 100 births. Projection ratios have been adjusted to match Longmeadow’s most recent enrollment history. Grade 1 is expected to be about 21% larger than the previous year’s Kindergarten class. Like many nearby communities Longmeadow continues to experience enrollment fluctuations of in/out-migration in Grades 1-8 (Grades 9-12 are excluded from this calculation, as there sometimes is a 1% increase in Grade 9 for reasons that have little to do with families moving into Longmeadow). See below the paragraph describing “Hidden Trends within the District - the “Grades 1-8 stability” – these are grade levels which commonly experience stability.

Over the next three years, K-5 enrollments are forecast to decrease by a total of 92 students due primarily to fewer births; Grades 6-8 to decrease by 13 pupils; and the high school level to decrease by about 43 pupils…all within the next three years – as smaller classes move up the grades. After that point these projections show a slight decline in Grades K-5, combined with continuing decreases at Grades 6-8 and 912 – as classes work their way up through the grades. That said, it is possible that real estate turnover will have increased, bringing in additional new families - see the “Projections” page. Will these patterns of increasing enrollments really last for as long as ten years? That is difficult to answer. All projections are more reliable in Years #1-5; and less reliable in Years #6-10. As soon as the economy and real estate situation become more stable in the region, additional in-migration may occur in Longmeadow. Many communities in the region sold during 2008-2013 only about 60-80% as many homes as in 2003-2007. In the case of Longmeadow, an average of 245 single-family homes was sold in 2003-2007. This number declined to only 165 homes sold in 2011 (67% of the prior pace). However, 208 were sold in 2012, 189 in 2013, and 174 homes have been sold in 2014 through October 31, similar to the 2012 pace, and 10 ahead of 2013 at this time of year. Condo sales remain in the single digits. Building permits had slowed as well; see the “Additional Data” table below. As additional families move in, any forecasted declines may moderate. See the description on Page 4 below regarding “reliability of projections”. The birth numbers used in the projections, through 2012, are from the MA Department of Public Health. The “estimated” years, beginning with 2013 are a rolling five-year average, which NESDEC has found to be the most accurate method of estimation. Local City/Town Clerks have up-to-date birth information, however do not have access to the numbers of Longmeadow residents born out-of-state (information which will eventually become known to the MA DPH). The two most difficult grades to forecast in all districts are Kindergarten and Grade 9. The latter is difficult to anticipate, as there are so many options for Grade 9 (in vocational or agricultural schools, private or parochial non-public schools, etc.). Kindergarten can be difficult to project based upon births alone, as many districts have large numbers of “net move-ins/move-outs” who are ages 1-4. Some districts take the extra steps to track 3 and 4-year olds with a local census, or report to NESDEC the known number of 4-year olds in local preschools/nursery schools which typically enroll Kindergarteners in the district. Knowing this information helps NESDEC to project Kindergarteners more reliably…as does data from the Kindergarten Screening in districts which also track 3 and 4-year old siblings (or neighbors) at that time. The more data, in addition to births, which is sent to NESDEC, the greater is the chance that “enrollment surprises” will be minimized. “Hidden Trends” within the district: There are additional trends and counter-trends. Although Longmeadow had been averaging 136 births per year, the births now remain barely above 100 per year, a trend expected to

continue. The K-12 total will continue to decrease for several years, as larger classes of seniors graduate in June, only to be replaced in the fall by less numerous classes of Kindergarteners. We know that Longmeadow currently is experiencing net in-migration of new families with school age children. Yet how can we accurately quantify the increasing numbers of these children? More so than other grade levels, Grades 1-8 in most districts tend to be quite stable in their numbers (example: if the Grade 1-7 total was 3,200 children in Year #1, the Grade 2-8 total in Year #2 typically would be approximately 3,200 - same cohort of children). Thus these "usually stable grades" provide a useful yardstick by which to measure a district's tendency toward in-/out-migration. Longmeadow's data reveals a mixed trend of "net in/out-migration". In 2012-13, the 1,514 pupils in Grades 2-8 were 9 more children than the 1,505 students enrolled in Grades 1-7 in the prior school year. In 2013-14, the 1,499 students in Grades 2-8 were 16 children more than the 1,483 who had been in Grades 1-7 during the prior year. Lastly, in 2014-15, the 1,527 children in Grades 2-8 were a robust 77 more students than the 1,440 who had been in Grades 1-7 during the previous year. This in-migration in grades that typically are stable in numbers - provides an additional reliable benchmark by which to assess enrollment trends. Will new families be moving into our school district? Everyday across America, 10,000 “Baby Boomers” celebrate their 65th birthday - a phenomenon which will continue for a decade. New England has a disproportionately large share of these senior citizens, many of whom had planned to “downsize” their living arrangements, yet postponed putting homes on the market due to the Great Recession. School enrollments are influenced strongly by the number of real estate sales, as these contribute new families moving into many districts. In over 80% of districts, the number of real estate sales is 4-5 times larger than the number of building permits for new residential construction – thus the number of real estate sales often is a more important factor than building permits. In New England, how rapidly will additional homes be placed on the market? A mid-2014 study using data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau directly links home prices to the “real Gross Domestic Product” (GDP) in each of the nine regions in the country. However New England ranks only 7th among the 9 regions in the recovery of its regional economy (as measured in “the bubble” prior to the Recession, in “real GDP”). Comparing the regional economies from 2 Quarter of 2007 to 4 Quarter 2013: W. South Central = +18.6% (that is, many jobs are available); W. North Central +11.8%; Pacific +7.4%; E. South Central + 5.6%; Middle Atlantic + 5.1%; Mountain + 4.1%; New England +3.4%; South Atlantic + 2.1%; and E. North Central + 2.0%. Home sales prices are +14.6% in the W. South Central region (including Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma) with the strongest “real G.D.P.” v. -4.4% in New England. Thus, although real estate sales and rentals are very strong in some New England towns and cities, there are many senior citizens still refraining from placing their homes on the market – as house prices still may be

rising. New England births, however, are likely to remain at low levels, due to the advanced age of the New England population.

Analyzing Your Enrollment Historical Public Enrollments 1. After the "YEAR" column can be found the "BIRTHS" column. The number of births to residents for each of eleven years is displayed. Note any trends, e.g., have births been decreasing? increasing? leveling off? Kindergarten and Grade 1 enrollments normally are quite responsive to these fluctuations. 2. Look down the K and 1 columns, noting the direction of the trend. This affords a comparison of these classes over a ten-year period. Add the K and Grade 1 enrollments of the first school year recorded, and compare them with the sum of the current K and Grade 1 enrollments. 3. Take the first K class and follow it diagonally to trace its movement to Grade 1, 2, etc. up to its current 10th grade status. This comparison (which can be accomplished for other classes also) gives some measure of the effects of migration in your school district. If a sixth grade class today is larger than it was as a K class six years ago, then net in-migration probably has occurred; if it is smaller, then net out-migration probably has occurred. 4. Compare each K class with the previous year's graduating class. Note which is larger and by what amount one surpasses the other. Larger graduating classes generally reflect declining enrollments; larger K classes generally indicate increasing enrollments. 5. In the "Grade Combinations" section, note the trends of elementary, middle school and high school enrollments. A significant and consistent trend in these summaries usually results in the corresponding trend for projected enrollments. If enrollments are leveling off in the elementary grades after a period of decline, then the secondary enrollments might be expected to continue to decline for several years until the leveling off experience has had time to take hold at the secondary grades.

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Enrollment Projections 1. Note the trends exhibited in the total K-12 (or 1-12) projection for the next five years as well as the projections for various grade combinations. The trends on this page should generally exhibit a continuation of the trends mentioned above for historical enrollments, although the rate of change may be quite different. 2. Look at the births in the most recent years and note whether the trend is up, down, or level. 3. Make similar comparisons as appropriate on this page as were suggested for the "Historical Public Enrollments" page.

PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Cohort component (survival) technique is a frequently used method of preparing enrollment forecasts. NESDEC uses this method, but modifies it in order to move away from forecasts which are wholly computer or formula driven. Such modification permits the incorporation of important, current town-specific information into the generation of the enrollment forecasts (such as the volume of real estate sales, building permits, in/out-migration, etc.). Basically, percentages are calculated from the historical enrollment data to determine a reliable percentage of increase or decrease in enrollment between any two grades. For example, if 100 students enrolled in Grade 1 in 2013-14, increased to 104 students in Grade 2 in 2014-15, the percentage of survival would have been 104% or a ratio of 1.04. Such ratios are calculated between each pair of grades or years in school over several recent years. After study and analysis of the historical ratios, and based upon a reasonable set of assumptions regarding births, migration rates, retention rates, etc., ratios most indicative of future growth patterns are determined for each pair of grades. The ratios thus selected are applied to the present enrollment statistics for a pre-determined number of years. The ratios used are the key factors in the reliability of the projections, given the validity of the data at the starting point. The strength of the ratios lies in the fact that each ratio encompasses collectively the variables that account for increases or decreases in the size of a grade enrollment as it moves on to the next grade. Each ratio represents the cumulative effect of the following factors: 1. Real estate turnover and new residential construction; 2. Migration, in or out, of the schools; 3. Drop-outs, transfers, etc.;

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4. Births to residents; 5. Retention in the same grade. RELIABILITY OF ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Projections can serve as useful guides to school administrators for educational planning. In this regard, the projections are generally most reliable when they are closest in time to the current year. Projections six to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments, and are useful for facility planning purposes. However, they should be viewed as subject to change given the likelihood of changes in the underlying assumptions/trends.

Projections that are based upon the children who already are in the district (the current K-12 population only) will be the most reliable; the second level of reliability will be for those children already born into the community but not yet old enough to be in school. A less reliable category is the group for which an estimate must be made to predict the number of births, thereby adding an additional variable. See these three multicolored groupings on the “Projected Enrollment” slide/page. How often do the actual enrollments closely match the NESDEC projections? The research literature reports the closest that enrollment forecasters are likely to come to actual enrollments is about 1% variance per yearfrom-the-known-data. That is, a 1% variance from projection-to-actual “one-year-out” into the future (2% variance “two-years-out” … 10% variance “ten-years-out”). NESDEC reaches this “highest possible” standard in about 90% of cases. When our NESDEC variance is greater, the reasons often are one of the following: a. imbedded/intervening “hidden” variables (examples: a parochial school closed or other students returned from non-public schools, a charter school opened, the Kindergarten program changed entrance age or to extended/fullday, the high school toughened its course credit/graduation requirements, the District set new attendance boundaries for elementary schools, or the District had well-publicized budget/referendum academic accreditation difficulties); b. the District size was below 500 students, thus subject to fluctuations in total numbers; or c. the District has not done enrollment projections on an annual basis. Annual updates allow for early identification of recent changes in historical trends. When the actual enrollment in a grade is significantly different (high or low) from the projected number, it is important (yet difficult) to determine whether this is a one-year aberration or whether a new trend may have begun. In light of this possibility, NESDEC urges all school districts to have updated enrollment forecasts developed by NESDEC each October. This service is available at no cost to affiliated school districts.

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Using This Information Electronically

If you would like to extract the information contained in this report for your own documents or presentations, you can use Adobe Acrobat reader to convert the desired information to a “snapshot,” which can be inserted into PowerPoint slides, Word documents, etc. Because the snapshot tool creates a graphic, the image is not editable. Steps for Using The Snapshot Tool in Adobe Acrobat Reader 8.0: 1. Click on Tools Menu; 2. Choose “Select & Zoom;” 3. Choose “Snapshot Tool;” 4. Click and drag around the text, chart, and/or graphics that you would like to capture: your selection will be copied to the clipboard automatically; 5. Click in the document where you would like the information to appear;* 6. Give Paste command. If you have an earlier version of Adobe Acrobat and these instructions don’t work for you, contact your tech support person, or NESDEC and we will try to assist you. Telephone (508)481-9444 or [email protected]. Ask for Peggy, Don, or Carol. *You may paste your snapshot onto a PowerPoint slide, onto an Excel sheet, or even into a graphics program to save as a separate graphic file (in .jpg or other format), so that it is available for inserting into future documents.

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Longmeadow, MA Historical Enrollment School District:

Longmeadow, MA DESE Database

12/7/2014

Historical Enrollment By Grade Birth Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Births 136 139 121 188 132 136 128 130 118 129 102

School Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

PK

K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

UNGR

K-12

PK-12

34 53 47 40 50 53 50 39 46 43 47

208 198 187 197 186 198 171 159 154 173 148

250 221 211 213 231 208 201 187 191 184 211

263 252 216 206 221 226 206 203 184 200 199

237 262 254 220 207 219 228 205 205 190 207

261 232 256 254 223 211 218 236 206 214 206

271 267 233 252 266 224 217 217 236 198 221

258 266 267 228 236 265 229 230 226 241 215

265 254 264 262 234 242 265 227 235 223 248

260 264 262 263 261 231 238 265 222 233 231

284 258 261 253 266 262 234 247 259 227 237

259 274 251 258 247 263 255 231 242 253 225

274 248 269 249 260 245 257 250 227 248 251

243 269 243 262 245 255 242 257 243 230 256

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3333 3265 3174 3117 3083 3049 2961 2914 2830 2814 2855

3367 3318 3221 3157 3133 3102 3011 2953 2876 2857 2902

7-12 1585 1567 1550 1547 1513 1498 1491 1477 1428 1414 1448

9-12 1060 1049 1024 1022 1018 1025 988 985 971 958 969

Historical Enrollment in Grade Combinations Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

PK-5 1524 1485 1404 1382 1384 1339 1291 1246 1222 1202 1239

K-5 1490 1432 1357 1342 1334 1286 1241 1207 1176 1159 1192

K-6 1748 1698 1624 1570 1570 1551 1470 1437 1402 1400 1407

K-8 2273 2216 2150 2095 2065 2024 1973 1929 1859 1856 1886

5-8 1054 1051 1026 1005 997 962 949 939 919 895 915

6-8 783 784 793 753 731 738 732 722 683 697 694

7-8 525 518 526 525 495 473 503 492 457 456 479

Historical Percentage Changes Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Change

K-12 3333 3265 3174 3117 3083 3049 2961 2914 2830 2814 2855

Diff. 0 -68 -91 -57 -34 -34 -88 -47 -84 -16 41 -478

% 0.0% -2.0% -2.8% -1.8% -1.1% -1.1% -2.9% -1.6% -2.9% -0.6% 1.5% -14.3%

Longmeadow, MA Historical Enrollment PK-12, 2004-2014 4000 3500

3367

3318

3221

3157

3133

3102

3011

2953

2876

2857

2902

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Longmeadow, MA Projected Enrollment School District:

Longmeadow, MA DESE Database

12/7/2014

Revised district projection based upon DESE database from 2004-05 to 2011-12; and school-by-school data from LPS from 2012-13 to 2014-15

Enrollment Projections By Grade* Birth Year

Births

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

102 86 104 106 105 101 100 103 103 103 102

(est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.)

School Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

PK

K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

UNGR

K-12

PK-12

47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57

148 117 142 145 144 138 137 141 141 140 139

211 178 141 171 175 174 166 165 170 170 169

199 219 185 146 177 182 181 172 171 176 176

207 204 225 190 150 182 187 186 176 175 181

206 216 213 235 198 157 190 195 194 184 183

221 206 216 213 235 198 157 190 195 194 184

215 232 216 227 224 247 208 165 199 205 204

248 218 235 219 230 227 250 211 167 201 208

231 248 218 235 219 230 227 250 211 167 201

237 232 249 219 236 220 231 228 251 212 168

225 233 228 245 215 232 216 227 224 247 208

251 225 233 228 245 215 232 216 227 224 247

256 252 226 234 229 246 216 233 217 228 225

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2855 2780 2727 2707 2677 2648 2598 2579 2543 2523 2493

2902 2828 2776 2757 2728 2700 2651 2633 2598 2579 2550

*Projections should be updated on an annual basis. Based on an estimate of births

Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations*

Based on children already born

Based on students already enrolled

Projected Percentage Changes

Year

PK-5

K-5

K-6

K-8

5-8

6-8

7-8

7-12

9-12

Year

K-12

Diff.

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

1239 1188 1171 1150 1130 1083 1071 1103 1102 1095 1089

1192 1140 1122 1100 1079 1031 1018 1049 1047 1039 1032

1407 1372 1338 1327 1303 1278 1226 1214 1246 1244 1236

1886 1838 1791 1781 1752 1735 1703 1675 1624 1612 1645

915 904 885 894 908 902 842 816 772 767 797

694 698 669 681 673 704 685 626 577 573 613

479 466 453 454 449 457 477 461 378 368 409

1448 1408 1389 1380 1374 1370 1372 1365 1297 1279 1257

969 942 936 926 925 913 895 904 919 911 848

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

2855 2780 2727 2707 2677 2648 2598 2579 2543 2523 2493

0 -75 -53 -20 -30 -29 -50 -19 -36 -20 -30

0.0% -2.6% -1.9% -0.7% -1.1% -1.1% -1.9% -0.7% -1.4% -0.8% -1.2%

-362

-12.7%

See "Reliability of Enrollment Projections" section of accompanying letter. Projections are more reliable for Years #1-5 in the future than for Years #6 and beyond.

Change

%

Longmeadow, MA Projected Enrollment

PK-12 TO 2024 Based On Data Through School Year 2014-15 4000 3500

Enrollment

3000

2902

2828

2776

2757

2728

2700

2651

2633

2598

2579

2550

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2014

2015

Longmeadow, MA Historical & Projected Enrollment

PK-12, 2004-2024 Historical

Projected

4000 3500

Enrollment

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Longmeadow, MA Birth-to-Kindergarten Relationship 300 270

K Enrollment, 2004-2014 240 210 K Enrollment

180 150 120 90

Births 1999-2012

Births

60 30 0 1999 2004

2000 2005

2001 2006

2002 2007

2003 2008

2004 2009

2005 2010

2006 2011

2007 2012

2008 2013

2009 2014

2010

2011

2012

Longmeadow, MA Additional Data

Building Permits Issued Year 2005

Single-Family 6

Enrollment History

Multi-Units 0

2010 8 2011 1 5 2012 5 2013 n/a 2014 Source: HUD and Building Department

0 0 0 0 0

Year 2005-06

Voc-Tech 9-12 Total n/a

Non-Public K-12 Total n/a

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

1 n/a 10 n/a n/a

318 n/a 341 349 268

Residents in Non-Public Independent and Parochial Schools (General Education) Enrollments as of Oct. 1

K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

K-12 TOTAL

40

18

13

9

27

21

22

18

17

13

21

24

25

268

K-12 Home-Schooled Students 2014

8

K-12 Residents "Choiced-out" or in Charter or Magnet Schools 2014 2

K-12 Special Education Outplaced Students 2014 57

K-12 Choiced-In, Tuitioned-In, & Other Non-Residents 2014 108

The above data were used to assist in the preparation of the enrollment projections. If additional demographic work is needed, please contact our office.

LONGMEADOW, MA ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS: SCHOOL BY SCHOOL PROJECTIONS SCHOOL: DATE:

BLUEBERRY HILL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 12/7/2014 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS

BIRTH YEAR

BIRTHS

SCHOOL YEAR

K

1

2

3

4

5

K-5 TOTAL

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

128 130 118 129 102

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

71 67 48 76 55

87 81 93 71 96

78 87 74 94 80

84 78 81 75 97

94 89 78 83 83

83 93 92 73 90

497 495 466 472 501

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

86 104 106 105 101

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

45 54 55 55 53

67 55 66 67 67

99 70 57 68 70

82 101 72 59 70

100 85 105 75 62

83 100 85 105 75

476 465 440 429 397

SCHOOL: DATE:

BIRTH YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(est.) (est.) (est.)

CENTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 12/7/2014 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS

BIRTHS

SCHOOL YEAR

K

1

2

3

4

5

K-5 TOTAL

128 130 118 129 102

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

52 47 52 50 49

59 49 47 52 62

58 60 53 49 57

80 61 62 54 51

62 80 60 64 57

74 62 81 61 64

385 359 355 330 340

86 104 106 105 101

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

35 43 45 45 42

58 42 51 54 54

65 60 43 53 56

58 67 61 44 54

54 61 70 63 46

57 54 61 70 63

327 327 331 329 315

(est.) (est.) (est.)

SCHOOL: DATE:

WOLF SWAMP ROAD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 12/7/2014 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS

BIRTH YEAR

BIRTHS

SCHOOL YEAR

K

1

2

3

4

5

K-5 TOTAL

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

128 130 118 129 102

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

48 45 54 47 44

55 57 51 61 53

70 56 57 57 62

64 66 62 61 59

62 67 67 67 66

60 62 63 64 67

359 353 354 357 351

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

86 104 106 105 101

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

37 45 45 44 43

53 44 54 54 53

55 55 46 56 56

64 57 57 47 58

62 67 60 60 49

66 62 67 60 60

337 330 329 321 319

(est.) (est.) (est.)

Projections assume that method of assigning students to schools will remain unchanged. Gradeby-grade totals and school totals may differ slightly from district totals due to rounding of numbers. District forecast is more reliable than school-by-school projections due to the greater variability inherent in smaller totals.

SCHOOL

GLENBROOK MIDDLE SCHOOL

Elementary Feeder Schools: All Wolf Swamp plus remainder from Blueberry Hill and Center

DATE:

12/7/2014 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS

SCHOOL

SCHOOL YEAR

6

7

8

Gr. 6-8 TOTAL

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

111 113 89 106 99

125 107 116 87 110

117 130 107 111 91

353 350 312 304 300

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

103 95 100 99 109

100 104 96 101 100

110 100 104 96 101

313 299 300 296 310

WILLIAMS MIDDLE SCHOOL

Elementary Feeder Schools: Blueberry Hill and Center

DATE:

12/7/2014 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS SCHOOL YEAR

6

7

8

Gr. 6-8 TOTAL

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

118 117 137 135 116

140 120 119 136 138

121 135 115 122 140

379 372 371 393 394

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

129 121 127 125 138

118 131 123 129 127

138 118 131 123 129

385 370 381 377 394