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Quo Vadis Electronic Commerce: A Preliminary Investigation

Abstract Since its inception two decades ago, electronic commerce (EC) has grown exponentially, adding new models and services and capturing a larger market share. The questions are: What is next? Where is this field going? To investigate these issues, we developed a framework that portrays the drivers of EC growth. Recognizing that EC in totality is too broad and diversified, we suggest using the framework only on segments of EC. This framework can be used as a basis for future investigations by researchers and for strategy formulation by practitioners. This paper briefly describes the major elements of the framework, including technology, innovative business models, EC attributes, and the relevant business environment. The framework recognizes three groups of participants: consumers of EC, suppliers of EC and third party service providers. 1. Introduction Although several activities of EC (such as electronic auctions, electronic money transfers) existed in the pre commercialized Internet era, most EC activities started with the commercialization of the Internet and the Web in the early 1990s. Since then, EC was growing and expanding at an annual rate of 10-20%. During this period, EC went through some major changes, including its integration with Web 2.0 and its expansion from the Western countries to China, India and other developing countries. Another significant change is the inclusion of wireless and mobility (in what is known as mcommerce) and the addition of many innovative EC business models. Finally, after the failure of many EC companies during 1998-2002, several of the remaining companies became very successful. Two questions to ask are: Where is EC going now? and Which of its segments will blossom and which will fail? Unfortunately, there is only much speculation and little research that attempts to answer this question. Actually, it is difficult to answer this question since there are many influencing factors. In order to help investigating this area we developed a simple framework that organizes these factors around the major drivers of EC. Researchers can use this framework to develop their agenda. This paper is structured as follow: In Section 2, we provide some background information related to the growth of EC in general. In Section 3, we present our proposed framework. The major elements of the framework are described in the following sections: Attributes and benefits are

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described in Section 4, Section 5, summarizes relevant emerging technological developments. In Section 6, we illustrate some innovative business models including some Chinese ones. In Section 7, we describe some relevant factors in the business environment. Finally, conclusions are provided in Section 8. 2. The Growth of the Electronic Commerce Field According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2013), e-commerce sales in 2011 accounted for 49.3 percent of total sales of all manufacturing activities in the United States, 24.3 percent of merchant wholesalers, 4.7 percent of all retailing, and 2 percent of all sales in selected service industries. EC is growing much faster than the total commerce (by about 16 to 17 percent annually against 2-4%). For a more detailed breakdown, see the U.S. Census Bureau (2013) report as well as Plunkett et al. 2014. Knight (2013) reported that during the 2009 to 2013 economic slowdown EC sales reached double-digit growth. For example, Moseti (2014) reported that during the 2013 holiday shopping season, online shopping grew by 10 percent a year versus 2.7 percent of traditional retailers. There is a clear trend that online retail sales are taking business away from traditional retailers (Moseti, 2014). EC is growing not only in the US. For example, according to an Ecommerce Europe press release of June 17, 2014, European ecommerce grew by 16.3 percent in 2013 reaching €363.1 billion (see ecommerce-europe.eu/press/european-e-commerce-grew-by-16-to-363billion-in-2013 ). Finally, in several developing countries, EC is becoming a major economic asset (e.g., see Maitra (2012) for information on India, and Estopace (2014), regarding Indonesia and other countries). Most notable is the growth of EC in China. According to Stanley and Ritacca (2014), e-commerce in China is exploding, expected to reach $540 billion USD by 2015. According to Tong (2014), China passed the US in online EC retail sales in 2013, and Alibaba Group is the world’s largest EC company (per businessinsider.com/these-charts-showhow-alibaba-became-the-worlds-largest-e-commerce-company-2014-5). For a comprehensive overview of EC in China, see Juho (2014).

3. A Framework of EC Growth The phenomenal growth of EC is driven by several factors, depending on the segment and type of EC, the industry, country, culture, and more. However, several major drivers are common to most situations. They are shown in Figure 1.

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As seen in the figure, the process described by the frameworks is starting with enabling technology. At the start of EC it was the Internet (specifically, the Web), and later on came mobility, Web 2.0, social networks, cloud computing and analytics, just to name a few. Technology is driving the attributes and benefits of EC as well as providing the basis for innovations and EC business models. The potential benefits and the EC business models influence the major participants in EC: the consumers (individual buyers, organizations), the providers (suppliers of EC products and services) and the others (venture capitalists, support services). EC growth is influenced by the actions of the participants. In addition, the growth is determined by the business environment (regulations, government support, economy, competition). This simple model can contribute to the understanding of the growth of EC and it can be used as a basis for investigation of the success factors, for growth of e-commerce in general, and its segments in particular. In the remainder of this paper, we describe the major elements of this framework. 4. Attributes and perceived benefits EC has an ever changing set of attributes and features that result in benefits to EC participants. These benefits have attracted more and more participants. Typical attributes and benefits are:

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For consumers: Shop anytime from anywhere, pay less, choose from a large selection, be able to self-configure products/services, no sales tax (in some states), can work from home, avoid pushy salespeople, interact and get recommendations from friends and other consumers, get instant delivery of digitized products, learn at home, save time (no need to go to the stores), avoid physical risks at shopping centers and parking lots, and may get better customer service. For product/service providers: Reduce marketing costs (e.g., no need for intermediaries). Global reach of suppliers and customers, businesses can be open all the time, reduced communication costs, more efficient procurement, improved delivery of CRM, ability to personalize products/services and advertisements, better environment for product innovation, better feedback from customers. Lower inventory, facilitation of problem solving, and save costs digitizing products and delivery of services. For society at large: Improved government services, improved delivery of health, education, public safety and more, less pollution due to less driving to stores, and reduced digital divide. Note that the benefits depend on the type of e-commerce. However, since this is a ‘win-win’ situation, it is no wonder that EC in totality has been growing rapidly and globally. As indicated earlier, the major drivers of these attributes and benefits are technology and business models.

5. Technology According to Westerman et.al., 2014, technology will lead to business transformation. They list several technologies, most of which are described here. Many types of technologies are used to enable EC. For example, mobile apps play a major role in many of the new shopping and payment models. The type of technology to consider depends on the EC application. For example, 3D Printing is important for mass customization, and augmented reality is invading retailing. It is beyond the scope of this paper to describe all the emerging technologies. We will provide only a short list and some references. A good place to start is the IEEE list of top 23 technologies for 2022 (see the list at Taft (2014)). McCafferty (2014) selected 11 game-changing technology trends adapted from the IEEE report. Gartner (2014) provided a list of top 10 strategic technology trends (an annual report), which are summarized by High (2013). From these lists, the following are those most likely to influence EC: Seamless intelligence networking, cloud computing, machine learning and intelligent systems, universal memory, Internet of Things (Marcovici, 2014), 3D Printing, crowdsourcing, and big data analytics. Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2014) call the new technologies the ‘Second Machine Age’ and describe their impact on business models, work, and quality of life.

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Technologies are emerging in almost all areas related to EC. For example, product delivery may someday be done by drones. E-payment via smartphones is progressing rapidly, replacing credit cards and checks. As far as being more specific, Gandhi et.al. (2014) list the following technologies as important for mass customization (e.g., for self configuration): social technologies, online interactive product configurations, 3-D scanning and modeling, smart recommendation engines, smart algorithms for dynamic pricing, enterprise production software, and flexible production systems. Bitcoin and similar e-payment technologies may induce more EC transactions and programs for automatic language translation (in real time) can facilitate global trade. IBM Smart Commerce Initiative (Petroff, 2014) and similar projects by other companies, will also contribute to the EC growth. Semantic Web, which is still in development, will contribute to more intelligent systems (possibly to Web 3.0), see w3.org/standards/semanticweb. Better tools for monitoring and analyzing social conversations and interactions will help marketers improve their one-to-one targeting efforts. Other social commerce technologies such as shopping clubs will facilitate EC transactions as well (see Turban et.al., 2015). Last, but not least, are the mobile technologies (Bent, 2014). These range from communication devices to sensor-based systems. In addition, the emerging world of wearable computing could be a major driver in the explosive growth of EC in the future. For additional presentation and discussion, see Gartner (2014), Ahmad (2014), and Enterprise Innovation Editors (2013). Note that disruptive innovations may occur in several industries due to technological development (see Manyika 2013, and Accenture Technology Vision, 2014).

As indicated earlier, advances in technology are also the major enablers of the new and improved EC business models. 6. Innovative EC Business Models A business model in general describes the manner in which business is done and revenue is generated. A major purpose of the EC business model is to attract enough customers to buy the products and services offered online. Business models are also aimed at investors such as venture capitalists, inducing them to financially support EC start ups. In this section, we present several fairly new and innovative business models and some companies that use them. We selected a variety of models used by existing US public companies. 6.1 Build-to-order (mass customization)

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Mass customization is one of the early EC models. What is new is the manner in which the model is built and deployed. Here are two examples.





Jaguar, the British multinational car manufacturer, presents a pioneering use of online self customization. According to Vizard (2013), Jaguar Land Rover, in collaboration with IBM, developed the ‘Jaguar Land Rover Virtual Experience’ 3D app that allows customers to control the image of the car and inspect its features, using motion-detecting technology. The system delivered a virtual consumer shopping experience in the dealers’ showroom. Nike ID is a site that gives shoppers options to customize shoes and sports gear. According to Lobosco (2014), Nike’s online sales jumped 70% in the 3rd quarter of 2014 (compared to the previous quarter). One reason for the increase is a training club app for women, which has been downloaded 17 million times (2014 data).

Both companies generate volumes of data retrieved from customers’ preferences (big data), which they mine for future design and advertising decisions. Both companies also integrate their marketing activities across multiple marketing channels. 6.2 Advertising models in social networks. Following the examples of Google and Yahoo, the major popular networks are developing interesting advertising-based revenue models. Facebook is currently the leader in this area, employing several apps in addition to just selling display ads. Incidentally, Facebook is starting to facilitate shopping with its ‘buy’ button. It also use its subsidiary , Atlas, to utilize data of its member to enable advertisers to do promotions on other websites(see Wasserman 2014). Twitter is building up a “war room” to coax advertisers into spending money during large public events where there a large amount of tweets are done. In 2014, Pinterest started collaborating with advertisers to target people in a brand’s database. The company is working on other methods, such as the conversion tracking tool (see Peterson, 2014). . 6.3 Real Estate models. This is an area that offers many opportunities. The most well-known company is Zillow, which has its own home value algorithm (called “Zestimate”). (Zillow may merge with Trulia, another online real estate giant. Some say that such a merger may result in a too large competitor that may disintermediate traditional brokers). Leju Holdings Ltd. is a Chinese company that provides online-to-offline services. In addition to facilitating real estate transactions, its business model covers home furnishings. It concentrates on new residential properties. Another Chinese company is SouFun Holdings, a,Aleading real

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estate Internet portal in China, which is similar to Leju, but its business model includes home improvements and other real estate-related services. 6.4 Cars Following Autobytel, several companies worldwide entered this area. An example is TrueCar which collaborates with dealers to eliminate the primary stress point of buyers negotiating prices. By providing pricing information and analysis, the company attempts to revolutionize the carbuying process. Bitauto Holdings and Autohome Inc., Chinese auto information websites, provide content and services to car buyers, working with hundreds of partners, including the major social networks (see digitaljungle.com.cn/ebooks/DigitalJungle-Driving-CarsSales-in-China-with-Social-Media.pdf). They deal with both new and used cars. 6.5 Travel This is one area where many newcomers are attempting to clone the success of Priceline, Expedia, Trip Advisor and others. Here are few examples: TravelPort, headquartered in the UK, is a leading Travel Commerce Platform that concentrates on the B2B travel market. Their Travel Commerce Platform has a presence in over 170 countries and supports all the major participants in the industry. The diversified business model includes eNett International, their virtual payment provider. Several companies in China and India are active in this field. Qunar Cayman Islands Limited is a B2B company concentrating on China. It operates a search-based commerce platform that uses a natural language interface. The company analyzes unstructured information from the Internet. Tuniu Corp. is an online leisure travel company concentrating on packaged tours in China and in over 70 other countries worldwide. 7. The Business Environment of E-Commerce The business environment that surrounds EC is broad and diversified. In this section, we touch only on a few areas that may impact the most the growth of EC. The digital revolution is upon us. We see it every day at home and work, in businesses, schools, hospitals, on the roads, in entertainment, and even in wars. (See Accenture Technology Vision, 2014 for details). Next, we describe briefly two elements of the digital revelation: digital economy, and the sharing economy. 7.1 The Digital Economy The digital economy, also known as the Internet economy, is an economy based on online transactions, mostly e-commerce. It includes digital wireline or wireless communication networks, computers, software, and other related information technologies. This digital economy includes digital and social customers (Taft, 2012), and digital enterprises, and it drives growth and competitive advantage (Gottlieb and Willmott, 2014). The digital economy is also propelled by the increasing number of Internet users worldwide (see Internetworldstats.com).

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7.2 Sharing Economy Sharing economy refers to an economic system constructed around the concept of sharing goods and services among participating people. Also known as ‘collaborative consumption’ and ‘collaborative economy,’ such systems appear in different forms and frequently use EC business models in their operations. Two well-known examples are car sharing and person-to-person money lending. The essentials of the sharing economy are described by Buczynski (2013) and Rifkin (2014). The major benefits for participants are cost reduction for buyers and ability to sell more products by sellers. Societal benefits include carbon footprint reduction (e.g., by ride sharing), increased recycling, and increased social interactions. Sharing economy and e-commerce. Several EC models and companies are based on the concept of sharing. Examples include Uber (for ride sharing), Yerdle (a free sharing economy marketplace), Kickstarter (for crowdfunding), and Knok and Love Home Swap for home exchanges. There are numerous companies where home and condo owners provide their properties for short term rentals (e.g., see Airbnb, and HomeAway). 7.3 Regulation and Taxation Several activities in this area may impact EC growth. For example, the issue of ‘net neutrality,’ which is related to Internet traffic, can have a positive or negative impact. The issue of implementing sales tax is important too. Until 2013, most EC transactions were not taxed; however, the situation is changing. Regulation regarding privacy may use of impact information about individuals by advertisers. Privacy concerns may limit the use of the wide spread of devices such as RFID. The use of drones will be impacted by regulations and so will exportimport rules for cross- border EC transactions. 8. Conclusions In this paper, we proposed a framework for investigating the directions of EC growth. We recognized the following elements in this framework: Technology, attributes and benefits, business models, and the business environment. These influence the behavior of three groups of EC participants: consumers (individuals and organizations), suppliers (providers) of EC and third party service providers. The behavior of the participants may determine the direction and magnitude of EC. Given the diversity and complexity of the EC field, research should be conducted, using this framework, on small segments of the field. For example, one can concentrate on a particular industry (e.g., transportation or health care), or on certain activities (e.g., procurement), or on generic business model. Areas such as social commerce can be divided, for example, into social media marketing and social enterprise. Here are some examples of possible investigations of EC segments: 

Shopping communities and clubs are getting popular, especially in the fashion industry.

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Their business model is sometimes called personal subscription (e.g., by Knopf, 2012 who cited Shoedazzle Inc., and Beachmint Inc. as examples). Other clubs are listed at Members-only-shopping.com. The future of this shopping model is not clear. On one hand, new technologies help in the presentation and selection of items. On the other hand, the potential conflict with traditional retailers and distributors may slow down the progress.  Location-based commerce is helped by wireless technologies, but, like Google Glass and similar augmented-reality applications, it is bogged down by privacy issues.  Daily deals suffer from extensive online and offline competition. Will companies such as Groupon succeed?  Sharing economy (collaborative consumption) is considered by some (e.g., Knopf, 2012) as the ‘next generation of shopping’. Yet, although they are liked by customers, car sharing companies face legal and political obstacles. In each of these and many other EC segments, there are opportunities for research. Using the proposal framework (which may include more elements) as a starting point is recommended. In summary, while EC in totality will grow and grow, some segments of it will run rapidly while others will stall. To find the segments in each category, people need to conduct research. It is our hope that this proposed framework will help them.

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References 1. Accenture Technology Vision, “From Digitally Disrupted to Digital Disrupter.” 2014. accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf (accessed September 2014). 2. Ahmad, I. “100 Most Startling Tech Facts, Figures, and Statistics from 2013 [Infographic].” Social Media Today, January 2, 2014. socialmediatoday.com/irfan-ahmad/2033741/100-most-startling-tech-factsfigures-and-statistics-2013-infographic (accessed September 2014). 3. Bent, K., “Mobility Revolution: 8 Shocking Stats From Cisco’s 2014 Mobile Traffic Forecast.” CRN, February 20, 2014. crn.com/slideshows/mobility/300071779/mobility-revolution-8-shocking-stats-from-ciscos-2014mobile-traffic-forecast.htm/ (accessed September 2014). 4. Brynjolfsson, E. and A. McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2014. 5. Buczynski, B. Sharing is Good: How to Save Money, Time and Resources through Collaborative Consumption. Gabriola Island, BC Canada: New Society Publishers, 2013. 6. Enterprise Innovation Editors. “A Whole Host of Predictions for 2014 and Beyond.” Enterprise Innovation, December 31, 2013. enterpriseinnovation.net/article/whole-host-predictions-2014-and-beyond1771618066 (accessed September 2014). 7. Estopace, E., “Southeast Asia gears up for e-commerce” RetailTech Innovation, May 27, 2014 enterpriseinnovation.net/article/southeast-gears-e-commerce355917900 (accessed September 2014). 8. Gandhi, A., C. Magar, and R. Roberts. “How technology can drive the next wave of mass Customization,” McKinsey & Company Insights & Publications, February 2014. mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/how_technology_can_drive_the_next_w ave_of_mass_customization (accessed September 2014). 9. Gartner, “Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014.” Special Report, gartner.com/technology/research/top-10-technology-trends (accessed September 2014).

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10. Gottlieb, J. and P. Willmott. “The Digital Tipping Point: McKinsey Global Survey Results.” McKinsey & Company Insights & Publications, June 2014. mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/the_digital_tipping_point_mckin sey_global_survey_results (accessed September 2014). 11. High, P. “Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014.” Forbes, October 14, 2013. forbes.com/sites/peterhigh/2013/10/14/gartner-top-10-strategic-technology-trendsfor-2014/ (accessed September 2014). 12. Juho, “E-commerce in China” Magenta Advisory, February 13, 2014. magentaadvisory.com/2014/02/13/e-commerce-in-china/ (accessed September 2014). 13. Knight, K. “comScore: Desktop Spending Up.” BizReport, May 21, 2013. bizreport.com/2013/05/comscore-desktop-spending-up-13-yoy.html (accessed September 2014). 14. Knopf, E. “ E-Commerce Week: The Rise of New Business Models”, The Business of Fashion, January 18, 2012. businessoffashion.com/2012/01/e-commerce-weekthe-rise-of-new-business-models.html (accessed September 2014). 15. Lobosco, K., “Nike online sales jump 70% , stock surges” CNN Money, September 26, 2014. money.cnn.com/2014/09/25/investing/nike-online-sales/ (accessed September 2014). 16. Maitra, D. “E-Commerce Is a New Dream for India Inc.” Deccan Herald, April 14, September 2012. deccanherald.com/content/210955/e-commerce-dreamindia-inc.html (accessed September 2014). 17. Manyika, J., M. Chui, J. Bughin, R. Dobbs, P. Bisson, and A. Marrs. “Disruptive Technologies: Advances That Will Transform Life, Business, and the Global Economy.” McKinsey Global Institute. May (2013). mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies (accessed September 2014). 18. Marcovici, M. The Internet of Things, Germany: Books On Demand, 2014. 19. McCafferty, D., “11 Game-Changing Technology Trends,” Baseline, September 19, 2014. baselinemag.com/it-management/slideshows/11-game-changingtechnology-trends.html (accessed September 2014).

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20. Moseti, W.M. “Struggling Retailers Report Change in Shopping Trends.” Sprout Wired, February 2, 2014. sproutwired.com/struggling-retailers-report-change-inshopping-trends/185173 (accessed September 2014). 21. Peterson, T., “Pinterest to Let Brands Target Their Existing Customers with Ads”, Ad Age, September 23, 2014. adage.com/article/digital/pinterest-advertiserstarget-existing-customers/295094/ (accessed September 2014). 22. Petroff, A., “Want to chat in 29 languages?” CNN Money, January 2, 2014 money.cnn.com/2014/01/02/technology/translation-service-app/ (accessed September 2014). 23. Plunkett, J. W., et.al. (eds.), Plunkett’s E-Commerce & Internet Business Almanac 2014 (Plunkett’s E-Commerce and Internet Business Almanac), Houston, TX: Plunkett Research Ltd., 2014. 24. Rifkin, J., The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism, New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan Trade, 2014. 25. Stanley, T. and R. Ritacca. “E-Commerce in China: Driving a New Consumer Culture.” KPMG Newsletter – China 360, Issue 15, January 2014. kpmg.com/CN/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Newsletters/China360/Documents/China-360-Issue15-201401-E-commerce-in-China.pdf (accessed September 2014). 26. Taft, D. K., “IEEE Picks top 23 technologies for 2022,” Slideshow, eWeek, September 3, 2014. eweek.com/database/slideshows/ieee-picks-top-23-technologies-for2022.html/ (accessed September 2014). 27. Tong, F. “China officially passes the U.S. in e-commerce” Internet Retailer, May 29, 2014. internetretailer.com/2014/05/29/china-officially-passes-us-ecommerce (accessed September 2014). 28. Turban, E., J. Strauss, and L. Lai. Social Commerce. New York: Springer, 2015.

29. U.S. Census Bureau. “E-Stats.” May 23, 2013. census.gov/econ/estats (accessed September 2014). 30. Vizard, M. “Jaguar Launches Virtual Shopping Experience.” CIO Insight, June 5, 2013. cioinsight.com/it-news-trends/jaguar-launches-virtual-shoppingexperience (accessed September 2013). 31. Wasserman, T., “Facebook Ads to Start Following You Around the Internet from

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Today”, SMH Australia, September 30, 2014 smb.com.au/digital-life-news/facebook-adsto… (accessed September 2014). 32. Westerman, G., D. Bonnet, and A. McAfee, Leading Digital: Turning Technology into Business Transformation, Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2014.

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