! " #
2:?)&'":? ) &3 /
.
-
01 /
$
5
2& "
$ . "6
5
. ". 7
3
.
4
2. 7 3 28 3
!"#
. 28 3
!"# $% & $ $ '#()*)+$ ,# !( * -. $ $ /0$1 234 $ $ & 0$ +$ 5% 467 $ $ '#()*)+$ ,# !( * -. $ $ /0$1 234 $ $ & 0$ +$ 5% 467 +1%0$ & 8 19 :; 8 19 :; % 1 < $ $= & 0$ $ , +$ 10$ >? @>A %1 % & 1 & B8 5 C D EDF , / %
/#
2&
+ < 4/
"5 :;
-
"4
2
3
7
2
3
$ .
= 97
3
. $ $ #
. $2 . $
4 3
=
$ 2& 3
0 9= 1
28 3
6
Bt 2013 2014 2015
$ $ /0$1
9
Q1 0.08 0.14 0.12
4/
/
9 4
9 0
9
9
Q2 0.07 0.12 0.50
Q3 0.09 0.21 0.06
!"
:
! :>
:
# =@ @@@@ >A @@0 # B #$
?
/ =@ @@@@ >A @@= B #$
!"#$%& $ $ '#()*)+$ ,# !( * -. 234 $ $ & 0$ +$ 5% 467
/ 1
Q4 0.44 (0.62) 0.21
$ %& '( )*+ ,-./01213 4/ .0 2 % G'HI$%& <1 . ;I,#()*)+ $ $ J# ,( * K %$ $ * 1 L8%M $ FD 9 10$ >? @>A % 1 % & & B8 = 5 C DC% <1 . ;)*) 1N< 9 O< 0$ P % GQJ!$%& <1 . ;!# ,()*)-. /0$1 & 15 19 0$ <1 . ;R.+1%K < %1 N = 1 $8 0$ + 19 0$ = R 8 S & 0$ C%8 5%$8 0$ + H"( 8 ;8 ;; & 0$ % 8 1E1 R E &E % 10$ / 1T ( 56 ,1213 2 !"#$%& $ $ '#()*)+$ ,# !( * N 234$ $+$ 5% 267K 234 $ $ '#( '# H( H+$ '# Q( Q H C8 $$ 0$ P G 234 1 $$ >? @>A +$ EN1 <1 . ; K C1 9 8 %D -N ; >? @>A= C% 5% 267<1 . ; 1E ; 7 8% 9 : ; *+ ,7 8% +1%0$ & 8 19 :; +$ EDF /E8E % < + '# "(+$ !#( 19 8 ;: 8 ;+ 8 19 N $ $= & 0$ $ , +$ 10$ >? @>A %1 % & 1 & B8 5 C D EDF , / % 1 & B8 % ; 1 +$%0$ & 1E+ 18 EDC N N& ED UV W 8 R.DEED 1E E1 8 ;; 0$ & ;$= % , . ; 1 8E 8 . X I <"="> 2 "?"#> 2 8 + C% -N ;K C% YC1 : ," # I"& 3Z[ H# H\ @> ABA S8F 15 G 1 ]K K 1 % +0 % $ C %G $ %% -N ;E % ^_``A ? >a ^ NG & + = . ;+$ 1$5% & E &E %
Revenue (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) Normalized Profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Normalized EPS (Bt) DPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Normalized EPS Growth (%) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Debt to Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Return on Average Equity (%)
" #$
:
Dec - 13A 8,006 1,537 489 0.68 0.22 0.15 6.0 0.2 6.1 2.2 5.1 (45.8) 3.6 36.2
Dec - 14A 8,295 (328) 733 (0.14) 0.32 0.08 (121.3) 49.5 (27.7) 2.5 (53.1) (107.8) 2.0 (9.0)
Dec - 15A 8,119 2,030 697 0.90 0.31 0.00 519.7 (4.9) 5.5 2.0 3.8 (52.3) 0.0 35.7
Dec - 16F 10,279 2,220 920 0.98 0.41 0.12 9.3 31.9 5.1 1.5 3.2 (43.1) 2.5 29.1
! '( )6
!""
#$
%&
$! ' ( ) * ( + ,
-
#
$
.
Dec - 17F 11,308 1,026 1,026 0.45 0.45 0.18 (53.8) 11.6 11.0 1.4 5.8 (45.9) 3.7 12.5
%$&
'( ' ')
*
Bt mn Revenue Gross Profit SG&A Operating Profit Operating EBITDA Non-Operating Income/(Expense) Pre-tax Profit Current taxation Net Profit Normalized profit EPS (Bt) Normalized EPS (Bt) Percent Gross margin EBIT margin :
!
!""
.
1Q16F 1,853 150 105 71 71 70 0 70 70 0.03 0.03 1Q16F 8.1 3.8
1Q15 1,397 118 79 70 95 232 268 8 276 77 0.12 0.03 1Q15 8.5 5.0
YoY (%) 32.6 27.2 33.1 1.3 (25.0) (100.0) (74.0) (95.5) (74.6) (8.6) (74.6) (8.6) YoY (ppts) (0.3) (1.2)
4Q15 2,041 172 88 112 161 404 488 (16) 472 96 0.21 0.04 4Q15 8.4 5.5
'( )6
#$
%&
$! ' ( ) * ( + ,
-
#
$
.
QoQ (%) (9.2) (12.6) 19.9 (36.9) (55.8) (100.0) (85.7) (102.2) (26.7) (85.2) (26.7) QoQ (ppts) (0.3) (1.7)
%$&
+(
:? )-
C
.
. 2:? )37
#
A9
2>/ :3 ..
$
:? )
$ 2+ >/ 3 $
$
$
!
. 2 9
/
3
E
$$ .
.
9#
>
5:
7
.G
3
.
,(
- .
:
-
!
&
.
'( )6
9
.
%
/
.
.
.
%
%
&
" !'&'"
&'"
)
!
--
/.
/
.%
/
%
)
'( )6
:
)( $ %.
- .
% .
.
/
.
%
%%
.
%
/
!
/3
#. 7 .
:
%3
3(
#. 7
( ) '" !
+7')8'/
$
:? )F .
&
9
. $
E
0
&
)
.
$
'3456 $
$
D
.
1( 2 I .
1@= )
.
. $
:
. .
.
& H
!
&
.
8
#
9! + !
.
.
:"
'( )6
5( 2
#. 7
0"
+41814)6
+7')8'/
.
% / .
%%
&'" ( ) '" ! " ! ) !* + " &#, --
:
&
!
.
/(
0 $ ! "
"
3
"
" ' '' ! ) 1 2 ) " " #! " '
7
'( )6
.
0
->6
:
! '( )6
&
:(
.
%3
/3
7 ) ) & !)
;$
-&? / 6 6
') 4
4 %5
6
') 4 . 5
') 4
5
6
4
5 ') 4
') 4 % .5
') 4 3
:
') 4
') 4 .5
5 5
%3
3
:
! '( )6
5
5
%3
! '( )6
4 !""
#$
%&
$!' ( ) * ( + ,
-
#
$
.
%$% Mar-13A
Jun-13A
Sep-13A
Dec-13A
Mar-14A
Jun-14A
Sep-14A
Dec-14A
Mar-15A
Jun-15A
Sep-15A
Dec-15A
Cost of Goods Sold
(1,518)
(1,680)
(1,893)
(2,142)
(1,857)
(2,022)
(2,328)
(1,059)
(1,279)
(2,013)
(2,032)
(1,869)
Operating Expenses Other incomes
(74) 9
(91) 20
(92) 18
(90) 21
(84) 31
(86) 56
(79) 1
(139) 21
(79) 31
(93) 23
(79) 19
(88) 29
Depreciation of fixed assets !"#$% &
(46)
(47)
(48)
(156)
(44)
(53)
(51)
(25)
(25)
(48)
(52)
(48)
' ( #) * Interest Income Other Non-op Income
0 73
0 40
0 52
0 884
0 141
0 72
0 258
0 734
0 216
0 950
0 (65)
0 390
' ( !+ Interest Expenses Other Non-op Expenses
(5) 88
(5) (3)
(5) (0)
(4) (85)
(1) 0
(1) 0
(1) 0
(1) (2,266)
(1) (16)
(3) (51)
(1) (78)
(1) (14)
- # ) * ./ ( + Current Taxation Minorities
(1) 0
0 0
(3) 0
17 0
(2) 0
0 0
(18) 0
6 0
8 0
6 0
17 0
(16) 0
Extraordinary items
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
' ' * 01 2 EPS (Bt) Normalized EPS (Bt)
0.08 0.01
0.07 0.05
0.09 0.07
0.44 0.09
0.14 0.08
0.12 0.09
0.21 0.10
(0.62) 0.05
0.12 0.03
0.50 0.10
0.06 0.13
0.21 0.04
Margins Gross profit margin Operating EBIT margin
5.8 1.7
10.4 6.6
11.0 7.6
10.5 7.6
11.6 9.1
10.4 9.0
12.1 9.2
17.9 8.7
8.5 5.0
13.1 10.1
14.1 11.5
8.4 5.5
Operating EBITDA margin Net profit margin
4.6 11.4
9.1 8.3
9.8 9.6
14.1 41.5
11.2 15.6
11.4 12.2
11.1 18.2
10.7 (109.6)
6.8 19.7
12.1 49.1
13.7 6.1
7.9 23.1
Growth Revenue growth Operating EBIT growth Operating EBITDA growth
(15.1) (79.8) (60.2)
16.4 345.0 130.9
13.5 29.6 22.1
12.5 13.0 62.2
(12.3) 4.8 (30.6)
7.4 7.0 9.4
17.5 19.6 14.7
(51.3) (53.7) (53.1)
8.3 (37.9) (31.4)
65.8 233.1 197.3
2.1 16.5 15.4
(13.7) (58.7) (50.5)
Net profit growth Normalized profit growth
0.7 (83.5)
(14.9) 446.3
31.4 28.5
386.2 27.8
(67.0) (3.9)
(16.1) 8.1
75.2 10.5
(393.0) (47.6)
(119.5) (34.7)
312.0 209.1
(87.2) 21.3
225.0 (66.7)
Income Statement (Bt mn)
!,
:
! '( )6
< $
) "
2( ;-#< > < 7#*$ < 6 )
: &
0 = = =
/ / //
3
) " . %/ %.
4
2 5 % / %
! 6 " . . % /
7! 6 " ./
7! 6 "
7! 6 8 9 5 .
7! 6 8 9 5 / %
7 ! +
7 ! +
.
. ./ %
% .
.%
7 ": ;
7 ": 7% ; < 02 5
7
&! 5 .
% .
'
! '( )6 $
0 !""
#$
%&
$!' ( ) * ( + ,
-
#
$
.
%$;
= > Year to 31 Dec (Bt mn)
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Revenue
8,295
8,119
10,279
11,308
11,884
(7,266)
(7,194)
(9,067)
(9,966)
(10,473)
1,029
926
1,212
1,342
1,412
(388)
(339)
(411)
(441)
(463)
Other Incomes
110
102
113
124
131
Operating Profit
751
688
914
1,026
1,079
As of 31 Dec (Bt mn)
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
Total Assets
6,431
7,752
10,246
11,120
11,913
Current Assets
5,500
5,705
6,783
7,621
8,410
3,959
2,992
3,307
3,798
4,393
Inventories
724
1,030
1,490
1,638
1,722
Operating Expenses
Accounts Receivable
759
1,637
1,971
2,169
2,279
57
47
15
16
17
931
2,047
3,463
3,499
3,503
0
0
0
0
0
901
1,867
3,279
3,311
3,313
31
180
184
188
190
Total Liabilities
2,782
2,071
2,622
2,880
3,026
Other Non-op Income
Current Liabilities
2,696
1,983
2,537
2,788
2,929
Non-Operating Expenses
Accounts Payable
2,581
1,780
2,360
2,594
2,726
0
0
0
0
0
115
203
177
194
203
Long-term Liabilities
86
89
85
93
97
Long-term Debts
18
13
13
13
13
Current Taxation
Others
67
75
72
79
83
Minorities
3,649
5,681
7,625
8,240
8,888
2,266
2,266
2,266
2,266
2,266
Cash & ST Investments
Others Non-current Assets LT Investments Net fixed Assets Others
ST Borrowings Others
Shareholders' Equity Common Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings
87
87
87
87
87
1,053
3,083
5,026
5,642
6,289
0
0
0
0
0
Preferred Stock :
Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit
(172)
(173)
(238)
(268)
(298)
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation of fixed assets
(137)
2,194
2,452
1,294
1,377
Non-Operating Income
1,205
1,491
1,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,205
1,491
1,300
0
0
(2,270)
(164)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(4)
(6)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(2,266)
(158)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(314)
2,015
2,209
1,021
1,074
(13)
15
11
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
Interest Income
Interest Expenses Other Non-op Expenses Equity Income/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit
Extraordinary items Net Profit Normalized Profit
Year to 31 Dec
0
0
0
2,220
1,026
1,079
733
697
920
1,026
1,079
0.90
0.98
0.45
0.48
0.32
0.31
0.41
0.45
0.48
Year to 31 Dec (Bt mn)
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
Operating Cash Flow Net Profit
5,866 733
1,293 697
1,660 920
968 1,026
1,195 1,079
172 1,490
173 (1,226)
238 (797)
268 (326)
298 (183)
3,471 (1,755) 219
1,650 198 (1,139)
1,300 (1,965) (1,650)
0 (454) (300)
0 (386) (300)
Normalized EPS (Bt) ! '( )6
& *
0 Growth (% YoY) Sales OP
0 2,030
(0.14)
EPS (Bt)
:
! '( )6
0 (328)
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
3.6 51.9
(2.1) (8.3)
26.6 32.8
10.0 12.3
5.1 5.2
(107.5) (121.3)
1,495.9 519.7
11.7 9.3
(47.2) (53.8)
6.4 5.2
Normalized Profit EPS
49.9 49.5
(4.9) (4.9)
31.9 31.9
11.6 11.6
5.2 5.2
Normalized EPS
49.5
(4.9)
31.9
11.6
5.2
Profitability (%) Gross Margin Operating Margin
Change in LT Investment Change in Other Assets
0 (1,974)
0 1,337
0 (315)
0 (154)
0 (86)
12.4 9.0
11.4 8.5
11.8 8.9
11.9 9.1
11.9 9.1
EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin
(1.7) (3.9)
27.0 25.0
23.9 21.6
11.4 9.1
11.6 9.1
ROAA ROAE
(5.1) (9.0)
26.2 35.7
21.7 29.1
9.2 12.5
9.1 12.1
Free Cash Flow Financing Cash Flow Change in Share Capital Net Change in Debt
4,111 524 10 729
1,491 (804) 0 (806)
(304) 304 0 580
513 (176) 0 234
808 (300) 0 132
(215)
3
(276)
(410)
(432)
4,636
688
(0)
337
508
EBITDA NP
Stability Gross Debt/Equity (%)
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
Net Debt/Equity (%) Interest Coverage (x)
(1.1) (74.7)
(0.5) 336.6
(0.4) 442.7
(0.5) 205.2
(0.5) 215.7
Interest & ST Debt Coverage (x) Cash Flow Interest Coverage (x)
(74.7) 1,413.9
336.6 215.4
442.7 332.1
205.2 193.5
215.7 238.9
Cash Flow/Interest & ST Debt (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x)
1,413.9 2.0 1.8
215.4 2.9 2.4
332.1 2.7 2.1
193.5 2.7 2.1
238.9 2.9 2.3
(3,935)
(2,974)
(3,288)
(3,779)
(4,374)
Per Share Data (Bt) EPS Normalized EPS
(0.1) 0.3
0.9 0.3
1.0 0.4
0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5
CFPS BVPS
2.6 1.6
0.6 2.5
0.7 3.4
0.4 3.6
0.5 3.9
SPS EBITDA/Share
3.7 (0.1)
3.6 1.0
4.5 1.1
5.0 0.6
5.2 0.6
DPS
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
1.3 33.4
1.0 73.6
1.0 70.0
1.0 70.0
1.0 70.0
Days Inventory Days Payable
36.4 129.6
52.2 90.3
60.0 95.0
60.0 95.0
60.0 95.0
Cash Cycle
(59.9)
35.5
35.0
35.0
35.0
Net Debt (Bt mn)
Activity Asset Turnover (x) Days Receivables
:
! '( )6
Depreciation & Amortization Change in Working Capital Others Investment Cash Flow Net CAPEX
Change in Other LT Liab. Net Cash Flow :
! '( )6
0 Year
0 1-
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Year
1/
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Year 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
:
% COGS Revenue 86.6% 85.5% 86.5% 85.9% 85.8% Working Capital Revenue -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 Operating Margin 4.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.7% 6.9%
+
+
x
Depreciation Revenue 3.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% Net PPE Revenue 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 Capital Turnover 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0
+
+
x
Operating Exp. Revenue 5.2% 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% Other Assets Revenue 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Cash Tax Rate -0.9% -4.3% -0.7% -0.5% -0.5%
=
=
=
Operating Margin 4.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.7% 6.9% Capital Turnover 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 After-tax Return on Inv. Capital -0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
! '( )6
= !""
#$
%&
$!' ( ) * ( + ,
-
#
$
.
%$
%$<0
=
&
!
0 " $
:
"
!?
7
)
$
3+
"
')
! '( )6
:
%>
$
6
1
: :
I
9 1 1
$
-6
6
0"<
I
*
5
-6 = @
/
$
6
0 "<
$# #
@
J
- I
K & . $
<
@M
@@
6
L
6
.
@=
1
M
@ @ @@@ <
@=
$'
$
@ @ @
& . $ :
6
. &
$# #
. =@ @
0
#
+
2+ -3
#F A .
H
2H 3
#F A .
0 8 5 .
253
#
2 $
0 8
6
6
. #
. 263
'( )
.
# .
A 7
# . $
#F A
. 2H 63
A 7 7 3
' ( )F
$ H
0&
.
=@ @@@@ < 0
.
7
9 4:
%@ 0
6
@
@ @@@@
@= &
J
.
@@ ?
H
=
0
:
7
#
0 8
.
A 7 2 $
#
$ 7 2 $ 7
# . 7
' ( )F
0 8
$
3 4 ' ( )F
3
' ( ):
."
7 .
.
$ $
. ' ( )F
. $ # $
$ $
.
>A
N
/
$
"
# # $ )
' ( )F .
P3 . .
7 .
H
9
7
.
# 7 .
$
# #
7
#F A $
7 .
#
7 $
.
$7
$ . #
' ( ):
2
.3 -
2O .
I
7 $
$ .
.
$ .
E .$
!""
.
#$
.
%&
.
7
$
.
E
$!' ( ) * ( + ,
$ 7
-
)
#
$
.
