The Sudan Consortium African and International Civil Society Action for Sudan
Sudan Public Opinion Poll Results of the Election opinion Poll, in Khartoum, River Nile, Kassala, Northern Kordofan, Aljazeera and White Nile States
June 2015
The data published in this poll was gathered by trusted partners in Sudan. Thanks go to Humanity United, without whose generous support this project would not have been possible.
Contents 1.
Contents ........................................................................................................................... 2
1.
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
2.
1.1
Background ............................................................................................................... 3
1.2
Sample and Survey Methodology ............................................................................. 4
Polling results ................................................................................................................... 8 2.1
Awareness of the election ........................................................................................ 8
2.2
Knowledge about the type of the coming election ................................................... 9
2.3
Election Candidates ................................................................................................ 10
2.4
Election Registration ............................................................................................... 10
2.5
Boycotting the election ........................................................................................... 12
2.6
Fairness of the Election........................................................................................... 13
Annex 1: Percentage distribution of population by some election related questions by state and mode of living .................................................................................................................. 14 Annex 2: Percentage distribution of population by some election questions by education and state ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Annex 3: Percentage distribution of population by some election questions by age and state ............................................................................................................................................... 25
2
1. Introduction 1.1 Background This report includes the main results of the public opinion poll on the current election, 2015, in six out of Sudan’s 18 states. The opinion poll reflects the general public’s satisfaction with what the government of Sudan calls “the citizens’ constitutional rights” to choose their president and parliamentary representatives. The six states where this survey was carried out are Khartoum, River Nile, Kassala, Northern Kordofan, Aljazeera and White Nile states. The results were gathered in the field through direct structured interviews and covered all localities of the surveyed states. The sample size for the survey was determined by the accuracy, and degree of precision required for the survey estimates for each state and available resources. The interviews were carried out by 75 qualified young researchers managed by nine supervisors. The April 2015 elections took place against the backdrop of deep political polarization in the country. The polarization came as a result of 25 years of bad governance; with the headlines of war, oppression and poverty. The government ignored all calls and demands by opposition parties to postpone the elections until the national dialogue, which was declared by the president, is carried out and its outcomes are concluded. Nevertheless the ruling party pressed ahead with the election. The main opposition parties of the “National Consensus Forces” declared that they would be boycotting the elections, leaving only the ruling NCP and its satellites of small splinter groups from the two main parties (five Umma parties and four Democratic Unionist parties) to contest it. The African Union Commission (AUC) sent a pre-election assessment mission to Khartoum in early March 2015. The overall objective of the mission was “to consider the state of preparedness for the polls by all stakeholders and examine the context within which the election will take place, to ensure that they are held within the framework of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance to which Sudan is a signatory”. The findings of this mission were published in a report a few days later. The report states that “the necessary conditions and environment for the holding of transparent, competitive, free and fair elections as agreed in the AU principles governing democratic elections have not been satisfied.” The report puts the blame squarely on the government: “The existing government’s security measures put substantial restrictions on freedom of expression, association and assembly and do not provide an environment for free participation in the electoral process.” The report recommended that “The planned elections be postponed and the national dialogue be prioritized. That will allow more time to for the creation of an enable environment for credible, transparent and competitive elections”. Through this project, the Sudan Consortium partners intended to address the issues of transparency, accountability and governance in Sudan. This opinion poll has created opportunity to better inform interested parties about the views of Sudanese citizens about the election process. In collecting people’s opinion on the elections, the project is trying to provide accurate information that helps analysts understand the dynamics of the elections and how the average individual perceives the election process. By raising awareness of what is going on across the local community, this project is hoped to contribute to establishing a foundation for civic education. Civil society organizations and all those who receive the results of this survey 3
will benefit from this project by getting the “facts” about the opinions of the people in the six surveyed states about the elections, rather than “rumours”, “allegations”, “unsubstantiated claims” and “counter-claims”. Democracy as a concept is wider than the elections processes, and a well-informed public is essential for real democracy. Independent civil society, among other things, is vital for civic education, and needless to say that all this needs an enabling open and healthy public space, which can only exist where there is good governance. Civil society, as well as all other institutions, requires reliable information in order to be able to direct their energies more effectively. To reach the objective of a better informed civil society there must be a space for individuals to freely express their opinions and access to information for Sudanese citizens. To the contrary, freedom of expression and freedom of thought and opinion in Sudan are severely restricted. The government controls television, radio, print materials and all other media outlets. The only media outlet left for independent voices is online media, and even this suffers attacks such as hacking, and sometimes the internet is shut down. That being said, this does not mean dialogue on social topics cannot occur; independent voices find ways to express themselves; this project is one of these ways. The pre-elections questions that we asked the public are as follows: 1. Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015? 2. Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, state level)? 3. Do you know the candidates for the Presidential election? 4. Are you registered to vote in the election? 5. Did you vote in the previous election (2010)? 6. Are you planning to vote in this election? 7. Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election? 8. Do you believe that this election will be free/honest/transparent? 1.2 Sample and Survey Methodology a) Sample design The sample for the survey was designed to provide estimates on some key indicators at state level and mode of living for the six states (River Nile, Kassala, Khartoum, Aljazeera, White Nile, and Northern Kordofan). The targets for the survey includes households and members of individual households. Populations living in institutions and group quarters such as hospitals, military bases and prisons, were excluded from the sampling frame. The states constituted the main sampling domain and in each state a two-stage cluster sampling design was employed to draw the sample for the survey. The villages or quarters (in the case of urban areas) constituted the Primary Sampling Units (PSUs). The PSU represents the smallest area or administrative unit, which could be identified in the field with commonly recognized boundaries. The sampling frame for the six states was compiled using the list of villages and quarters and estimated number of households updated by the Central Bureau of Statistics on the basis of the updated frame from the 2008 population census. The six states clusters (PSUs) 4
were distributed to urban and rural areas, proportional to the size of urban and rural households in each state. The urban and rural clusters in each of these states were selected randomly with probability of selection proportional to size (PPS). Table 1 and 2 shows the sample distribution by locality and mode of living and the response rate of households by state and mode of living. Table No. (1) Sample distribution by locality and mode of living State
Mode of living Urban Rural Total
River Nile 257
716
973
298
697
995
715
200
915
175
812
987
325
645
970
150
774
924
1,920
3,844
5,764
Kassala Khartoum Aljazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Total
Table (2): Response rate of households by state and mode of living State Urban Result of interview Interviewed Not interviewed % % River Nile 100 0.0 Kassala 100 0.0 Khartoum 94.0 6.0 Aljazeera 96.6 3.4 White 90.8 9.2 Nile Northern 80.7 19.3 Kordofan Total 94.4 5.6
Mode of living Rural Total Result of interview Result of interview Interviewed Not Interviewed Not interviewed interviewed % % % % 99.7 .3 99.8 .2 99.9 .1 99.9 .1 99.0 1.0 95.1 4.9 97.3 2.7 97.2 2.8 93.6 6.4 92.7 7.3
5
85.5
14.5
84.7
15.3
95.3
4.7
95.0
5.0
Fig. 1: Percentage distribution of population by gender and state 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
9 26
29 47
57
50
36
91 74
71 53
43
River Nile
50
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Male
64
Total
Female
b) Sample size and sample selection procedures The sample size for the survey was determined by the accuracy and degree of precision required for the survey estimates for each state and available resources. It was judged that a minimum sample of 800 households would be necessary to make estimates/results with some degree of precision at the state level. Since a similar level of precision was required for the survey results from each state, it was decided to draw 40 clusters from each state and 25 households from each cluster (1,000 households per state). The sampling frame of villages/quarters was compiled separately for each state based on the best available population measures. In cases where a selected village/quarter could not be reached because of security or access problems, it was replaced by a neighbouring village/quarter in the sampling frame. A sample of 25 households was drawn from each selected cluster using the method of systematic random sampling and for each selected household the interview was conducted with one member selected randomly if his/her age is 18 years or over. The following equation was used to estimate the minimum sample size: Confidence limits (95% confidence): Upper: r * (1 + RME) Lower: r * (1 - RME) Sample size: 4 * r * (1-r) * deff n = --------------------------------------------(RME * r)2 * pb * Ave. Size * RR Standard error (se): (r * RME) / 2
6
INPUT VALUES Parameter
Value
Predicted value of indicator (in target/base population)
r
0.4
Design effect
deff
2
Relative margin of error at 95% confidence
RME
0.1
pb
0.4
Ave. Size
5
RR
0.75
Proportion of target/base population in total population Average household size Response rate OUTPUT VALUES Estimate
Value
Predicted r
0.4
Confidence limits (at 95% confidence) Upper
0.44
Lower
0.36
Number of households (Sample size): n
800
Standard error (se)
0.02
c) Training of data collectors Three four-day-training workshops were organized for 75 data collectors and nine supervisors. The training covered research methodology in general as well as interviewing techniques, how to ask questions and fill in the questionnaire. An additional day was reserved to conduct a pilot test of the questionnaire. The data collectors selected were either university students or recent graduates with an interest in social science and research. They come from the different localities of Khartoum and were representative of the country’s ethnic and socio-economic diversity. d) Ethics and consent procedure Selection of respondents in sample villages/quarters required official consultation with the authorities in those villages/quarters. After respondents were randomly selected in each of the sample villages/quarters, interviewers were then required to formally introduce themselves and the purpose of the interviews. During this introductory phase, the respondents were informed that all responses would be noted down but would be kept confidential at all times. Respondents were informed that they could choose whether or not to participate in the survey. 7
e) Data entry and data analysis The data entry application was developed using Census and Survey Processing System (CSPro) software package.
Quote from an interviewed man from Kassala: Yes I know about the election, we discuss this issue every day in the night gathering. Our sheikh (traditional leader) told us to vote for the tree (the NCP icon). Our current president is a good man and we want him again. We also have a candidate in our tribe from the NCP and we will definitely support him too.
Five data entry operators (four females and one male) with previous experience on CSPro were recruited and were given refresher sessions on data entry/verification and data modification using actual survey data. After completing data entry for the seven localities of Khartoum state, the concatenated data file was edited to resolve inconsistencies and exported to SPSS for further analysis.
2. Polling results 2.1 Awareness of the election The figure below shows that 85% of the total respondents in the surveyed states were aware of the election. Kassala scored the highest percentage, where 95% of the people were aware of the election and the lowest is Northern Kordofan, where only 73% of the population were aware of the elections. Fig.2: Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1.4 10.7
.8 4.0
4.3 9.9
7.1 12.7
9.0 5.4
19.2
6.8 8.3
7.4
88
95
86
80
86
73
River Nile Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
No
85
Total
Not Stated
Source: polling survey results
Although the percentage of awareness seems to be very high, particularly in Kassala, this does not confirm that the respondents actually understand what a democratic system is or the values 8
that comes with such a system. In some random interviews the surveyors had with many in Kassala State, people expressed that they knew about the election from their tribal leaders. However, the tribal leaders only speak of the NCP; implying that just because a respondent is aware of the election does not mean they are aware of the dynamics of the elections or the implications of electing a specific party/president. They hear about the elections from the radio, in the market and social events but their knowledge of the elections does not go beyond knowing of the election itself. 2.2 Knowledge about the type of the coming election As the figure below indicated 47% of the total respondents in the six surveyed states know the type of this election. Again the highest percentage of the respondents is from Kassala followed by River Nile State with 66%, all respondents from other surveyed states who know the type of election are less than 50%. Fig. 3: Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
32
19.7
27
54
51
45
52 56
66
70 42
42
47
39 24
River Nile
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
No
Total
Not Stated
Source: polling survey results
The general trend reveals that the awareness and knowledge of the type of the election is directly proportional to the mode of living (urban, rural), level of education and age of the respondent (see annex 2, 3 and 4). In Kassala State, 60% of illiterates and 94% of respondents with a university level education and above Quote from an interviewed man from were aware of the elections. The 60% reported Hamshcoreab in Kassala: we will give by illiterates seems to be very high for an the NCP our votes because we don’t want illiterate sample group. However, an trouble. In this area our tribal leaders will explanation for this can be that illiterates know not live us in peace if we don’t vote for the the fact, the fact being the different types of NCP elections (Presidential, Parliamentary, National), but do not understand what the dynamics in the election types are, or the processes that are carried out in the different election types, compared to the 94% that most probably do understand the dynamics and processes in the three different election types. 9
2.3 Election Candidates As the figure below indicates that the majority of the respondents (more than 50%) in five states (Khartoum, River Nile, White Nile, Aljazeera and Northern Kordofan) do not know that there are other candidates than the current president, except in Kassala State where the percentage of respondents who know that they are other candidates than the current president is 64%. Fig. 4: Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2.8
6.4
4.5
6.9
9.2
20.3
8.2
33 51
48 63
54
66 65
64 46
45
30 River Nile
25
38 14
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
No
Total
Not Stated
Source: polling survey results
2.4 Election Registration The figure below shows that in River Nile and Kassala states the percentage of respondents who were registered is also much higher than other surveyed states (79% and 73% respectively). As it is mentioned above this does not confirm that the respondents actually understand what a democratic system is or the values that comes with such a system (this is particularly relevant for Kassala State). Obviously, we can see that in all surveyed states the people who participated in the previous election is much higher than the people who are planning to vote in this election (see figures 6 and 7), except the River Nile State where the percentage of people who are planning to vote is higher than the percentage of people who voted in the previous election. This is clearly justifiable, as it is observed from the surveyors that there is a massive campaign for the election (see the quote to the right).
10
Quote from an interviewed man from Abu Hamad in River Nile state: We are working very hard to defeat the NCP, we are fed up from this Party [sic]. We get nothing from these people, therefore we are giving our full efforts to let our independent candidate win. We cannot really influence the Presidential election, but we will at least let our independent candidate win to represent us in the Parliament.
Fig. 5: Are you registered to vote for the election? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1
1
20
26
7
52
79
4
9
50
43
7
11
39 51
73
River Nile
Kassala
41
46
Khartoum
Jazeera
Yes
No
48
54 38
White Nile Northern Kordofan
Total
Not Stated
Source: polling survey results
. Figure 6: Did you vote in the previous election (2010)? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
12
20
28
30
31
37
46
36 87 71
66 46
River Nile
54
62 44
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
No
Source: polling survey results
11
Not Stated
Total
Fig. 7: Are you planning to vote in this election? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
27
25
38 55
73
75
56
41
44
62 45
River Nile
58
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
43
57
Total
No
Source: polling survey results
2.5 Boycotting the election Consistent with the observation illustrated above that the majority of the respondents of the six states do not know that there are other candidates than the current president (specifically in Kassala), the figure below also shows that the majority (60% in total) had not heard that some parties are boycotting the election. Again the highest percentage is in Kassala (72%). Fig. 8: Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
55
53
44
59 63
40
39
35
23 River Nile
51
60
72
33 16
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
No
Source: polling survey results
12
Total
2.6 Fairness of the Election The figure below indicates that the majority of the respondents in five states (Khartoum, White Nile, Northern Kordofan, Aljazeera and Kassala) do not believe that the election process will be fair, honest and transparent. However, in River Nile State the result is different, where 66% of the respondents believe that the election will be fair, honest and transparent. This is also consistent of the above mentioned results of their registration and the planning to vote. The River Nile State population are working hard to get their candidates winning the election.
Quote from a woman from Khartoum: What is going on is children playing. Actually the election results are already there, even before we vote: the current president and the NCP parliament candidates will “win”. They will govern us again five years and who knows what will happen in these five years.
Fig. 9: Do you believe that this election will be fair/honest/transparent? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
34 54
57
68
72
69
33
28
31
59
66 46
River Nile
43
Kassala Khartoum Jazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Yes
No
Source: polling survey results
13
41
Total
Polling questions Have you heard that there is a forthcomin g election in April 2015? Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidenti al, Parliament ary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates
Annex 1: Percentage distribution of population by some election related questions by state and mode of living River Nile Kassala Khartoum Aljazeera White Nile Northern Kordofan Mode of living Mode of living Mode of living Mode of living Mode of living Mode of living Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
Yes
% 82.5
% 89.8
% 87.9
% 96.0
% 94.8
% 95.2
% 80.1
% 80.5
No
15.6
8.9
10.7
2.3
4.7
4.0
11.0
1.9
1.3
1.4
1.7
0.4
0.8
100 66.5
100 65.6
100 65.9
100 89.3
100 61.4
31.9
32.5
32.4
6.7
1.6
1.8
1.7
100
100
Yes
56.0
No
42.4
Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated
Total
Urban
Rural
% 80.2
% 90.9
% 84.7
18.5
12.7
5.7
8.8
1.0
7.1
100 69.7
100 42.2
100 40.0
35.4
26.8
49.2
4.0
3.2
3.4
100
100
100
41.9
45.6
87.9
50.0
48.0
8.1
Total
Urban
Rural
% 85.8
% 87.1
% 85.0
10.8
9.9
3.1
3.4
4.4
4.3
100 41.7
100 40.0
100 42.4
59.0
51.4
56.6
8.5
1.0
6.9
100
100
100
54.1
64.2
27.8
43.6
33.0
63.6
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
% 85.7
% 72.0
% 73.8
% 73.5
6.5
5.4
3.3
8.1
7.4
9.8
8.5
9.0
24.7
18.1
19.2
100 41.9
100 42.8
100 37.5
100 39.3
100 29.3
100 22.7
100 23.8
53.1
53.7
47.4
53.8
51.6
46.0
58.5
56.5
3.4
4.6
4.4
9.8
8.7
9.1
24.7
18.7
19.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
39.0
30.3
44.0
44.7
44.6
22.8
26.4
25.2
24.0
12.3
14.2
60.0
62.8
52.6
50.6
51.0
67.4
64.8
65.7
51.3
68.2
65.5
Total
14
than the current president for the Presidential election?
Not Stated
Are you registered to vote for the election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)? Are you planning to vote in this election? Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election?
1.6
8.1
6.4
4.0
2.3
2.8
8.5
1.0
6.9
3.4
4.7
4.5
9.8
8.8
9.2
24.7
19.5
20.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
70.0 28.4 1.6
81.7 17.0 1.3
78.6 20.0 1.3
57.4 40.9 1.7
79.1 19.8 1.1
72.6 26.1 1.3
38.5 53.0 8.5
51.5 47.5 1.0
41.3 51.8 6.9
58.9 37.7 3.4
43.1 52.3 4.6
45.9 49.7 4.4
42.2 48.0 9.8
50.4 40.8 8.8
47.6 43.2 9.2
25.3 50.0 24.7
40.1 40.6 19.4
37.7 42.1 20.2
100 63.4 35.0 1.6
100 73.6 25.1 1.3
100 70.9 27.7 1.3
100 76.8 20.8 2.3
100 91.0 7.6 1.4
100 86.7 11.6 1.7
100 42.2 47.7 10.1
100 60.5 38.5 1.0
100 46.2 45.7 8.1
100 68.6 28.0 3.4
100 64.9 30.5 4.6
100 65.6 30.1 4.4
100 50.2 40.0 9.8
100 55.3 35.7 9.0
100 53.6 37.1 9.3
100 35.3 40.0 24.7
100 45.5 35.0 19.5
100 43.8 35.8 20.3
100 60.7 37.7 1.6
100 77.4 19.8 2.8
100 73.0 24.6 2.5
100 60.7 34.6 4.7
100 81.3 16.5 2.2
100 75.2 21.9 2.9
100 41.3 48.7 10.1
100 56.5 42.5 1.0
100 44.6 47.3 8.1
100 60.0 36.6 3.4
100 62.3 33.0 4.7
100 61.9 33.6 4.5
100 36.0 54.2 9.8
100 44.2 46.8 9.0
100 41.4 49.3 9.3
100 32.7 36.0 31.3
100 46.6 31.0 22.4
100 44.4 31.8 23.8
100 46.3 52.1 1.6
100 43.0 55.4 1.5
100 43.9 54.6 1.5
100 36.6 56.0 7.4
100 17.2 79.3 3.4
100 23.0 72.4 4.6
100 39.9 51.6 8.5
100 40.0 59.0 1.0
100 39.9 53.2 6.9
100 40.6 56.0 3.4
100 33.4 61.2 5.4
100 34.7 60.3 5.1
100 47.1 43.1 9.8
100 35.7 55.5 8.8
100 39.5 51.3 9.2
100 22.7 52.7 24.7
100 14.9 65.0 20.2
100 16.1 63.0 20.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100 1
Total
Total
15
Do you Yes 54.9 believe No 43.6 that this Not 1.6 election Stated will be 100 free/hones t/transpare Total nt? Source: Polling results
70.3 25.6 4.2
66.2 30.3 3.5
53.0 39.6 7.4
42.8 46.5 10.8
45.8 44.4 9.7
41.0 49.8 9.2
48.5 50.5 1.0
42.6 49.9 7.4
38.9 54.3 6.9
31.2 58.6 10.2
32.5 57.9 9.6
25.5 64.3 10.2
29.6 61.4 9.0
28.2 62.4 9.4
28.0 38.7 33.3
31.7 43.4 24.9
31.1 42.6 26.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
16
Annex 2: Percentage distribution of population by some election questions by education and state
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Are you planning to vote in this election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
1: All states Level of education attained Illiterate Khalwa/literacy Basic / Secondary University Total education intermediate and above % % % % % % 81.3 92.4 90.1 91.2 93.7 84.9 16.9 6.2 7.7 7.3 3.9 8.3 1.8 1.3 2.2 1.5 2.4 6.8 100 33.2 63.8 3.0
100 47.6 50.1 2.3
100 50.4 46.9 2.7
100 57.6 40.7 1.8
100 65.3 32.1 2.6
100 47.4 45.2 7.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
30.9 65.3 3.8
39.8 57.9 2.3
41.0 55.2 3.8
41.6 55.4 3.0
48.1 48.6 3.3
37.7 54.0 8.2
100 51.9 45.5 2.6
100 67.9 30.5 1.6
100 58.7 39.1 2.3
100 56.0 42.3 1.7
100 55.0 42.5 2.5
100 54.3 38.7 7.1
100 59.1 38.1 2.8
100 79.4 18.6 2.0
100 66.5 31.0 2.5
100 63.5 34.6 1.9
100 57.9 38.7 3.4
100 61.6 31.1 7.4
100 53.9 41.5 4.6
100 71.8 25.9 2.3
100 62.1 34.3 3.7
100 61.2 36.6 2.2
100 53.4 42.6 4.0
100 57.1 34.6 8.3
100 24.2 72.3
100 17.7 79.2
100 34.4 62.2
100 43.1 54.5
100 55.6 42.0
100 32.9 59.2
17
Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election? Do you believe that this election will be free/honest/transparent?
Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total
3.5
3.1
3.4
2.3
2.4
7.9
100 34.2 56.9 8.9
100 47.6 45.9 6.5
100 47.1 47.2 5.6
100 48.3 47.1 4.6
100 39.0 56.0 5.0
100 41.2 48.0 10.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
1. Khartoum State
Polling Questions
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes
Level of education attained Illiterate Khalwa/literacy Basic / Secondary University education intermediate and above % % % % % 66.7 54.2 87.7 85.4 90.8 30.8 45.8 11.3 13.1 5.8 2.6 0.0 1.0 1.5 3.4
Total
% 80.2 12.7 7.1
100 23.1 74.4 2.6
100 25.0 75.0 0.0
100 37.4 62.1 .5
100 47.6 51.0 1.5
100 53.5 43.1 3.4
100 41.7 51.4 6.9
100 21.8 75.6 2.6
100 20.8 79.2 0.0
100 31.5 68.0 .5
100 25.7 72.8 1.5
100 39.4 57.2 3.4
100 30.3 62.8 6.9
100 29.5 67.9 2.6
100 31.3 68.8 0.0
100 52.7 46.8 .5
100 42.7 55.8 1.5
100 44.0 52.6 3.4
100 41.3 51.8 6.9
100 46.2 51.3 2.6
100 33.3 64.6 2.1
100 60.1 38.9 1.0
100 49.5 48.1 2.4
100 44.6 49.8 5.5
100 46.2 45.7 8.1
100 41.0
100 39.6
100 55.2
100 51.5
100 42.2
100 44.6
18
Are you planning to vote in this election?
No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
56.4 2.6
58.3 2.1
43.8 1.0
46.1 2.4
52.3 5.5
47.3 8.1
100 23.1 74.4 2.6
100 20.8 79.2 0.0
100 38.4 61.1 .5
100 38.8 59.7 1.5
100 54.2 42.5 3.4
100 39.9 53.2 6.9
100 41.0 56.4 2.6
100 35.4 64.6 0.0
100 52.7 45.8 1.5
100 50.0 48.1 1.9
100 39.1 56.9 4.0
100 42.6 49.9 7.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
3 River Nile State Polling Questions
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Yes No Not Stated Total Do you know the type of Yes the coming election No (Presidential, Not Parliamentary National, Stated at state level)? Total Do you know other Yes candidates than the No current president for the Not Presidential election? Stated Total Are you registered to Yes vote for the election? No Not Stated Total Did you vote in the Yes previous election (2010)? No
Level of education attained Illiterate Khalwa/literacy Basic / Secondary University Total education intermediate and above % % % % % % 64.9 90.7 92.1 91.4 96.6 87.9 33.8 9.3 6.0 8.1 2.6 10.7 1.3 0.0 1.9 .5 .9 1.4 100 53.2 45.5 1.3
100 66.7 33.3 0.0
100 61.8 35.8 2.4
100 74.7 24.9 .5
100 83.6 14.7 1.7
100 65.9 32.4 1.7
100 48.1 46.8 5.2
100 48.1 50.0 1.9
100 44.9 48.4 6.7
100 42.5 51.1 6.3
100 52.6 40.5 6.9
100 45.6 48.0 6.4
100 74.7 24.0 1.3
100 81.5 18.5 0.0
100 81.6 16.7 1.7
100 79.2 20.4 .5
100 74.1 25.0 .9
100 78.6 20.0 1.3
100 58.4 40.3
100 79.6 20.4
100 76.4 22.0
100 71.5 28.1
100 64.7 34.5
100 70.9 27.7
19
Not Stated Total Are you planning to vote Yes in this election? No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
1.3
0.0
1.7
.5
.9
1.3
100 61.0 37.7 1.3
100 87.0 13.0 0.0
100 76.1 20.3 3.6
100 74.2 24.9 .9
100 71.6 26.7 1.7
100 73.0 24.6 2.5
100 42.2 56.5 1.3
100 46.3 53.7 0.0
100 44.9 53.2 1.9
100 42.5 56.6 .9
100 46.6 52.6 .9
100 43.9 54.6 1.5
100 59.7 37.7 2.6
100 74.1 25.9 0.0
100 69.2 27.0 3.8
100 66.1 30.8 3.2
100 62.1 33.6 4.3
100 66.2 30.3 3.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
4 Kassala State
Polling Questions
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
Level of education attained Illiterate Khalwa/literacy Basic / Secondary University Total education intermediate and above % % % % % % 87.0 98.0 95.5 96.6 97.0 95.2 12.5 1.5 3.0 2.6 1.5 4.0 .5 .5 1.5 .9 1.5 .8 100 58.9 35.4 5.7
100 60.3 37.5 2.3
100 81.9 13.1 5.0
100 83.8 14.5 1.7
100 94.0 3.0 3.0
100 69.7 26.8 3.4
100 63.0 32.3 4.7
100 52.9 45.3 1.8
100 77.4 18.1 4.5
100 76.1 22.2 1.7
100 85.1 13.4 1.5
100 64.2 33.0 2.8
100 65.6 32.3
100 83.8 15.4
100 63.8 34.7
100 68.4 30.8
100 64.2 32.8
100 72.6 26.1
20
Not Stated Total Did you vote in the Yes previous election (2010)? No Not Stated Total Are you planning to vote Yes in this election? No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
2.1
.8
1.5
.9
3.0
1.3
100 82.3 15.1 2.6
100 92.4 6.6 1.0
100 78.9 18.6 2.5
100 88.9 10.3 .9
100 82.1 14.9 3.0
100 86.7 11.6 1.7
100 67.2 28.1 4.7
100 87.6 11.1 1.3
100 67.8 27.6 4.5
100 70.9 28.2 .9
100 49.3 43.3 7.5
100 75.2 21.9 2.9
100 16.7 77.1 6.3
100 6.6 89.9 3.5
100 28.6 64.8 6.5
100 53.0 41.9 5.1
100 71.6 26.9 1.5
100 23.0 72.4 4.6
100 29.7 53.1 17.2
100 53.7 38.2 8.1
100 48.7 43.2 8.0
100 50.4 41.0 8.5
100 38.8 53.7 7.5
100 45.8 44.4 9.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
5 Aljazeera State
Polling Questions
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
Level of education attained Illiterate Khalwa/literacy Basic / Secondary University Total education intermediate and above % % % % % % 84.6 93.1 83.7 90.7 95.9 85.8 13.8 6.9 13.8 8.5 3.4 9.9 1.5 0.0 2.5 .8 .7 4.3 100 39.2 59.2 1.5
100 20.7 79.3 0.0
100 41.0 56.5 2.5
100 43.6 55.2 1.2
100 56.8 42.5 .7
100 41.9 53.7 4.4
100 41.5 56.2
100 34.5 65.5
100 46.3 51.1
100 45.9 52.9
100 50.0 49.3
100 44.6 51.0
21
current president for the Presidential election?
Not Stated Total Are you registered to Yes vote for the election? No Not Stated Total Did you vote in the Yes previous election (2010)? No Not Stated Total Are you planning to vote Yes in this election? No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
2.3
0.0
2.5
1.2
.7
4.5
100 36.9 61.5 1.5
100 48.3 51.7 0.0
100 45.8 51.7 2.5
100 49.8 49.0 1.2
100 54.8 44.5 .7
100 45.9 49.7 4.4
100 66.9 31.5 1.5
100 81.0 19.0 0.0
100 67.1 30.3 2.5
100 65.6 33.2 1.2
100 66.4 32.9 .7
100 65.6 30.1 4.4
100 63.1 35.4 1.5
100 63.8 34.5 1.7
100 64.0 33.4 2.5
100 63.7 35.1 1.2
100 63.7 35.6 .7
100 61.9 33.6 4.5
100 23.1 74.6 2.3
100 24.1 75.9 0.0
100 29.5 66.6 3.9
100 40.9 57.5 1.5
100 55.5 43.8 .7
100 34.7 60.3 5.1
100 20.8 69.2 10.0
100 44.8 46.6 8.6
100 33.4 58.7 7.9
100 37.5 57.1 5.4
100 32.2 63.0 4.8
100 32.5 57.9 9.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
6. White Nile State
Polling Questions
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
Level of education attained Illiterate Khalwa/literacy Basic / Secondary University Total education intermediate and above % % % % % % 88.7 92.8 91.8 96.6 98.0 85.7 11.0 3.6 5.9 1.4 1.0 5.4 .3 3.6 2.3 2.1 1.0 9.0 100 25.7 73.6
100 30.6 65.8 22
100 49.3 48.4
100 55.5 42.5
100 74.5 24.5
100 39.3 51.6
(Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election?
Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Are you registered to Yes vote for the election? No Not Stated Total Did you vote in the Yes previous election (2010)? No Not Stated Total Are you planning to vote Yes in this election? No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
.7
3.6
2.3
2.1
1.0
9.1
100 22.9 76.4 .7
100 19.8 75.7 4.5
100 28.3 69.4 2.3
100 32.9 65.1 2.1
100 42.2 56.9 1.0
100 25.2 65.7 9.2
100 46.6 52.7 .7
100 50.5 45.0 4.5
100 56.6 41.1 2.3
100 49.3 48.6 2.1
100 64.7 34.3 1.0
100 47.6 43.2 9.2
100 53.4 45.9 .7
100 64.0 30.6 5.4
100 60.7 37.0 2.3
100 55.5 42.5 2.1
100 65.7 33.3 1.0
100 53.6 37.1 9.3
100 41.1 58.2 .7
100 39.6 55.0 5.4
100 47.0 50.7 2.3
100 45.2 52.7 2.1
100 57.8 41.2 1.0
100 41.4 49.3 9.3
100 32.2 67.1 .7
100 39.6 55.9 4.5
100 40.2 57.5 2.3
100 53.4 44.5 2.1
100 67.6 31.4 1.0
100 39.5 51.3 9.2
100 28.1 71.2 .7
100 28.8 66.7 4.5
100 34.2 63.5 2.3
100 33.6 63.7 2.7
100 23.5 74.5 2.0
100 28.2 62.4 9.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
7. Northern Kordofan State Level of education attained Khalwa/literacy Basic / Illiterate Secondary education intermediate
Polling Questions
Yes No
% 81.2 14.6
% 88.0 6.7 23
% 92.2 4.5
% 89.5 3.9
University and Total above % % 85.7 73.5 4.8 7.4
Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes Do you know other No candidates than the Not current president for the Stated Presidential election? Total Yes No Are you registered to Not vote for the election? Stated Total Yes No Did you vote in the Not previous election (2010)? Stated Total Yes No Are you planning to vote Not in this election? Stated Total Yes No Have you heard that some parties are Not boycotting the election? Stated Total Yes No Do you believe that this election will be Not free/honest/transparent? Stated Total Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015? Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)?
4.2
5.3
3.4
6.6
9.5
19.2
100 14.2 80.6
100 28.0 66.7
100 32.5 63.8
100 46.1 46.1
100 66.7 23.8
100 23.8 56.5
5.2
5.3
3.7
7.9
9.5
19.7
100 7.8 85.8
100 10.7 84.0
100 18.3 77.2
100 30.3 61.8
100 52.4 38.1
100 14.2 65.5
6.5
5.3
4.5
7.9
9.5
20.3
100 48.9 45.3
100 38.7 56.0
100 42.2 53.0
100 39.5 52.6
100 50.0 40.5
100 37.7 42.1
5.8
5.3
4.9
7.9
9.5
20.2
100 50.5 43.4
100 61.3 33.3
100 50.7 44.4
100 47.4 44.7
100 54.8 35.7
100 43.8 35.8
6.1
5.3
4.9
7.9
9.5
20.3
100 53.7 34.6
100 52.0 42.7
100 50.7 41.4
100 56.6 31.6
100 50.0 38.1
100 44.4 31.8
11.7
5.3
7.8
11.8
11.9
23.8
100 12.9 80.6
100 16.0 78.7
100 20.9 73.1
100 28.9 63.2
100 38.1 52.4
100 16.1 63.0
6.5
5.3
6.0
7.9
9.5
20.9
100 34.0 50.2
100 34.7 57.3
100 35.8 54.5
100 53.9 35.5
100 35.7 45.2
100 31.1 42.6
15.9
8.0
9.7
10.5
19.0
26.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
Source: Polling results
24
Annex 3: Percentage distribution of population by some election questions by age and state 1. All six states < 20
Polling Questions Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Do you know the candidates for the Presidential election?
Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Are you planning to vote in this election?
Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 89.8 86.7 8.0 10.8 2.2 2.4
% 89.2 6.4 4.5
20 29 % 88.9 9.8 1.3
30 39 % 90.5 7.4 2.1
40 49 % 90.7 7.8 1.5
70 and over % 83.1 14.8 2.0
Not Stated % 20.0 1.1 78.9
Total
100 35.0 59.9 5.1
100 42.1 56.5 1.4
100 51.6 45.4 3.0
100 54.4 43.4 2.2
100 54.3 43.0 2.7
100 47.8 49.2 3.0
100 41.6 55.5 2.9
100 13.7 7.1 79.2
100 47.4 45.2 7.4
100 32.5 62.4 5.1
100 30.2 67.8 2.0
100 39.4 57.1 3.4
100 42.8 53.5 3.8
100 44.5 51.6 3.8
100 40.5 55.8 3.7
100 36.9 59.6 3.5
100 13.4 7.4 79.2
100 37.7 54.0 8.2
100 28.7 66.2 5.1
100 42.4 56.1 1.5
100 55.8 41.7 2.4
100 63.4 34.7 1.8
100 63.7 34.0 2.3
100 59.3 37.9 2.8
100 61.6 36.0 2.3
100 16.7 4.4 78.9
100 54.3 38.7 7.1
100 27.4 67.5 5.1
100 50.4 47.6 2.0
100 66.4 30.8 2.8
100 70.5 27.3 2.2
100 69.3 28.3 2.4
100 69.3 27.4 3.3
100 68.6 29.1 2.3
100 15.9 5.2 78.9
100 61.6 31.1 7.4
100 49.7 44.6 5.7
100 51.7 44.7 3.6
100 61.0 35.3 3.7
100 63.3 33.5 3.2
100 62.9 34.1 3.0
100 59.2 36.8 4.0
100 61.3 34.6 4.1
100 15.3 5.5 79.2
100 57.1 34.6 8.3
100 22.3 72.6 5.1
100 33.8 64.2 2.0
100 36.3 60.4 3.3
100 36.6 60.7 2.8
100 34.9 62.0 3.2
100 36.6 59.9 3.5
100 25.0 70.3 4.7
100 6.8 14.0 79.2
100 32.9 59.2 7.9
100 40.8
100 40.0
100 43.5
100 47.1
100 45.9
100 40.0
100 38.1
100 7.7
100 41.2
25
% 84.9 8.3 6.8
Do you believe that this No election will be Not free/honest/transparent? Stated Total
51.0 8.3
54.5 5.6
49.3 7.2
46.9 6.0
48.9 5.2
53.2 6.8
56.4 5.5
11.8 80.5
48.0 10.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 80.5 82.4 14.4 12.2 5.1 5.4
70 and over % 76.7 16.7 6.7
Not Stated % 2.2 0.0 97.8
Total
Source: Polling results
2. Khartoum State < 20
Polling Questions Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Are you planning to vote in this election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
% 90.3 9.7 0.0
20 29 % 86.6 12.5 .9
30 39 % 85.0 13.6 1.4
40 49 % 84.2 14.0 1.8
100 45.2 54.8 0.0
100 34.1 65.1 .9
100 44.1 54.5 1.4
100 45.6 53.2 1.2
100 52.5 43.2 4.2
100 55.4 39.2 5.4
100 43.3 50.0 6.7
100 2.2 0.0 97.8
100 41.7 51.4 6.9
100 32.3 67.7 0.0
100 25.0 74.1 .9
100 32.4 66.2 1.4
100 32.7 66.1 1.2
100 39.8 55.9 4.2
100 32.4 62.2 5.4
100 40.0 53.3 6.7
100 2.2 0.0 97.8
100 30.3 62.8 6.9
100 19.4 80.6 0.0
100 34.1 65.1 .9
100 49.8 48.8 1.4
100 48.0 50.9 1.2
100 48.3 47.5 4.2
100 44.6 50.0 5.4
100 50.0 43.3 6.7
100 0.0 2.2 97.8
100 41.3 51.8 6.9
100 19.4 80.6 0.0
100 37.1 59.9 3.0
100 55.9 41.3 2.8
100 57.9 40.4 1.8
100 50.8 44.9 4.2
100 48.6 43.2 8.1
100 56.7 36.7 6.7
100 0.0 2.2 97.8
100 46.2 45.7 8.1
100 41.9 58.1 0.0
100 39.7 57.3 3.0
100 52.6 44.6 2.8
100 53.8 44.4 1.8
100 44.1 51.7 4.2
100 43.2 48.6 8.1
100 50.0 43.3 6.7
100 0.0 2.2 97.8
100 44.6 47.3 8.1
100 38.7 61.3
100 42.7 56.5
100 41.3 57.3
100 39.2 59.6
100 43.2 52.5
100 45.9 48.6
100 43.3 50.0
100 2.2 0.0
100 39.9 53.2
26
% 80.2 12.7 7.1
Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election? Do you believe that this election will be free/honest/transparent?
Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total
0.0
.9
1.4
1.2
4.2
5.4
6.7
97.8
6.9
100 45.2 54.8 0.0
100 44.0 55.2 .9
100 46.5 51.6 1.9
100 48.0 50.3 1.8
100 36.4 58.5 5.1
100 43.2 48.6 8.1
100 60.0 33.3 6.7
100 0.0 2.2 97.8
100 42.6 49.9 7.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 86.4 83.1 11.5 14.4 2.1 2.5
70 and over % 65.6 32.8 1.6
Not Stated % 33.3 0.0 66.7
Total
Source: Polling results
3. River Nile State < 20
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Are you planning to vote in this election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated
% 100 0.0 0.0
20 29 % 92.3 7.7 0.0
30 39 % 92.3 6.7 1.0
40 49 % 91.0 8.3 .7
100 41.7 58.3 0.0
100 63.7 36.3 0.0
100 74.0 24.5 1.4
100 69.9 28.7 1.4
100 58.6 38.7 2.6
100 61.9 36.4 1.7
100 59.0 39.3 1.6
100 33.3 0.0 66.7
100 65.9 32.4 1.7
100 33.3 66.7 0.0
100 41.8 52.7 5.5
100 46.6 46.6 6.7
100 45.7 47.1 7.3
100 45.5 48.2 6.3
100 48.3 47.5 4.2
100 45.9 49.2 4.9
100 33.3 0.0 66.7
100 45.6 48.0 6.4
100 16.7 83.3 0.0
100 61.5 38.5 0.0
100 85.1 13.9 1.0
100 83.4 15.9 .7
100 81.7 16.2 2.1
100 80.5 17.8 1.7
100 60.7 37.7 1.6
100 33.3 0.0 66.7
100 78.6 20.0 1.3
100 8.3 91.7 0.0
100 50.5 49.5 0.0
100 79.8 19.2 1.0
100 73.7 25.6 .7
100 72.3 25.7 2.1
100 78.0 20.3 1.7
100 54.1 44.3 1.6
100 33.3 0.0 66.7
100 70.9 27.7 1.3
100 16.7 83.3 0.0
100 51.6 45.1 3.3
100 80.8 16.3 2.9
100 78.9 19.4 1.7
100 75.9 21.5 2.6
100 71.2 27.1 1.7
100 57.4 41.0 1.6
100 33.3 0.0 66.7
100 73.0 24.6 2.5
27
% 87.9 10.7 1.4
Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
100 8.3 91.7 0.0
100 42.9 57.1 0.0
100 48.1 51.0 1.0
100 43.3 55.4 1.4
100 42.9 55.0 2.1
100 48.3 50.0 1.7
100 37.7 60.7 1.6
100 0.0 33.3 66.7
100 43.9 54.6 1.5
100 25.0 75.0 0.0
100 56.0 44.0 0.0
100 71.2 25.5 3.4
100 72.3 23.5 4.2
100 65.4 29.3 5.2
100 62.7 35.6 1.7
100 54.1 44.3 1.6
100 33.3 0.0 66.7
100 66.2 30.3 3.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 97.3 92.0 2.7 7.2 0.0 .8
70 and over % 98.0 2.0 0.0
Not Stated % 93.2 4.5 2.3
Total
Source: Polling results
4. Kassala State Polling Questions < 20
Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Yes No Not Stated Total Do you know the type of Yes the coming election No (Presidential, Not Parliamentary National, Stated at state level)? Total Do you know other Yes candidates than the No current president for the Not Presidential election? Stated Total Are you registered to Yes vote for the election? No Not Stated Total Did you vote in the Yes previous election (2010)? No Not Stated Total Yes
% 93.3 0.0 6.7
20 29 % 89.0 11.0 0.0
30 39 % 95.6 2.9 1.5
40 49 % 95.9 3.3 .8
100 60.0 33.3 6.7
100 69.9 30.1 0.0
100 75.2 19.9 4.9
100 71.5 24.4 4.1
100 78.7 19.7 1.6
100 56.8 39.2 4.0
100 50.0 46.9 3.1
100 79.5 15.9 4.5
100 69.7 26.8 3.4
100 40.0 53.3 6.7
100 52.1 47.9 0.0
100 67.5 29.6 2.9
100 68.7 28.0 3.3
100 71.8 26.1 2.1
100 57.6 38.4 4.0
100 49.0 49.0 2.0
100 72.7 22.7 4.5
100 64.2 33.0 2.8
100 53.3 40.0 6.7
100 52.1 47.9 0.0
100 71.4 26.7 1.9
100 74.4 24.0 1.6
100 76.1 23.9 0.0
100 65.6 32.0 2.4
100 80.6 19.4 0.0
100 95.5 2.3 2.3
100 72.6 26.1 1.3
100 80.0 13.3 6.7
100 75.3 24.7 0.0
100 84.5 13.1 2.4
100 85.8 11.4 2.8
100 90.4 9.0 .5
100 87.2 11.2 1.6
100 92.9 7.1 0.0
100 93.2 4.5 2.3
100 86.7 11.6 1.7
100 86.7
100 67.1
100 71.8
100 71.1
100 80.9
100 74.4
100 84.7
100 79.5
100 75.2
28
% 95.2 4.0 .8
Are you planning to vote in this election?
No Not Stated Total Have you heard, that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
6.7 6.7
31.5 1.4
24.8 3.4
24.4 4.5
18.1 1.1
22.4 3.2
13.3 2.0
18.2 2.3
21.9 2.9
100 20.0 73.3 6.7
100 17.8 78.1 4.1
100 28.2 67.0 4.9
100 24.4 70.7 4.9
100 22.3 73.9 3.7
100 20.8 74.4 4.8
100 16.3 78.6 5.1
100 25.0 70.5 4.5
100 23.0 72.4 4.6
100 66.7 26.7 6.7
100 39.7 45.2 15.1
100 50.5 38.3 11.2
100 46.3 41.1 12.6
100 57.4 38.3 4.3
100 37.6 51.2 11.2
100 33.7 61.2 5.1
100 25.0 65.9 9.1
100 45.8 44.4 9.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 88.2 94.2 9.5 4.9 2.4 1.0
70 and over % 81.8 14.5 3.6
Not Stated % 22.0 0.0 78.0
Total
Source: Polling results
5. White Nile State < 20
Polling questions Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
% 94.7 0.0 5.3
20 29 % 95.5 4.5 0.0
30 39 % 92.7 4.5 2.8
40 49 % 94.7 4.1 1.2
100 42.1 52.6 5.3
100 51.4 48.6 0.0
100 44.4 52.8 2.8
100 45.1 53.7 1.2
100 37.3 59.8 3.0
100 35.0 64.1 1.0
100 30.9 65.5 3.6
100 12.1 9.9 78.0
100 39.3 51.6 9.1
100 21.1 73.7 5.3
100 13.5 86.5 0.0
100 24.2 73.0 2.8
100 32.8 65.6 1.6
100 29.0 68.0 3.0
100 24.3 74.8 1.0
100 27.3 69.1 3.6
100 14.3 7.7 78.0
100 25.2 65.7 9.2
100 26.3 68.4 5.3
100 42.3 57.7 0.0
100 43.3 53.9 2.8
100 60.2 38.1 1.6
100 53.3 43.8 3.0
100 49.5 49.5 1.0
100 56.4 40.0 3.6
100 15.4 6.6 78.0
100 47.6 43.2 9.2
100 31.6 63.2
100 47.7 52.3
100 59.6 37.6
100 63.9 34.4
100 57.4 39.6
100 58.3 39.8
100 54.5 41.8
100 13.2 8.8
100 53.6 37.1
29
% 85.7 5.4 9.0
Not Stated Total Are you planning to vote Yes in this election? No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
5.3
0.0
2.8
1.6
3.0
1.9
3.6
78.0
9.3
100 26.3 68.4 5.3
100 49.5 50.5 0.0
100 42.7 54.5 2.8
100 49.2 49.2 1.6
100 39.1 58.0 3.0
100 40.8 57.3 1.9
100 41.8 54.5 3.6
100 16.5 5.5 78.0
100 41.4 49.3 9.3
100 26.3 68.4 5.3
100 37.8 62.2 0.0
100 44.4 52.8 2.8
100 46.7 51.6 1.6
100 39.1 58.0 3.0
100 48.5 50.5 1.0
100 30.9 65.5 3.6
100 11.0 11.0 78.0
100 39.5 51.3 9.2
100 31.6 63.2 5.3
100 40.5 59.5 0.0
100 27.5 69.1 3.4
100 31.1 66.8 2.0
100 27.2 69.8 3.0
100 24.3 74.8 1.0
100 27.3 69.1 3.6
100 13.2 8.8 78.0
100 28.2 62.4 9.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 93.5 89.2 5.8 8.4 .7 2.4
70 and over % 88.6 9.1 2.3
Not Stated % 6.7 0.0 93.3
Total
Source: Polling results
6. Aljazeera State < 20
Polling Questions Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election? Are you registered to vote for the election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No
% 88.5 7.7 3.8
20 29 % 85.9 12.6 1.5
30 39 % 88.0 10.3 1.7
40 49 % 87.1 12.4 .5
100 28.8 67.3 3.8
100 41.3 57.3 1.5
100 44.6 53.2 2.1
100 46.3 53.2 .5
100 47.1 52.2 .7
100 41.0 56.6 2.4
100 40.9 56.8 2.3
100 0.0 6.7 93.3
100 41.9 53.7 4.4
100 44.2 51.9 3.8
100 44.2 54.4 1.5
100 42.5 55.4 2.1
100 45.8 53.2 1.0
100 52.2 47.1 .7
100 50.6 47.0 2.4
100 47.7 50.0 2.3
100 0.0 6.7 93.3
100 44.6 51.0 4.5
100 36.5 59.6
100 40.8 57.8
100 42.9 54.9
100 49.8 49.8
100 59.4 39.9
100 53.0 44.6
100 54.5 43.2
100 0.0 6.7
100 45.9 49.7
30
% 85.8 9.9 4.3
Not Stated Total Did you vote in the Yes previous election (2010)? No Not Stated Total Are you planning to vote Yes in this election? No Not Stated Total Have you heard that Yes some parties are No boycotting the election? Not Stated Total Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
3.8
1.5
2.1
.5
.7
2.4
2.3
93.3
4.4
100 26.9 69.2 3.8
100 59.2 39.3 1.5
100 67.8 30.0 2.1
100 74.6 24.9 .5
100 77.5 21.7 .7
100 72.3 25.3 2.4
100 79.5 18.2 2.3
100 3.3 3.3 93.3
100 65.6 30.1 4.4
100 61.5 34.6 3.8
100 56.8 41.7 1.5
100 60.9 36.9 2.1
100 65.2 34.3 .5
100 74.6 24.6 .7
100 68.7 28.9 2.4
100 61.4 34.1 4.5
100 6.7 0.0 93.3
100 61.9 33.6 4.5
100 21.2 75.0 3.8
100 36.4 61.7 1.9
100 38.2 57.5 4.3
100 36.8 62.7 .5
100 37.7 60.9 1.4
100 33.7 63.9 2.4
100 29.5 68.2 2.3
100 0.0 6.7 93.3
100 34.7 60.3 5.1
100 32.7 55.8 11.5
100 26.2 65.0 8.7
100 29.2 61.4 9.4
100 37.8 58.7 3.5
100 42.0 52.9 5.1
100 37.3 55.4 7.2
100 36.4 61.4 2.3
100 3.3 3.3 93.3
100 32.5 57.9 9.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Age 50 - 60 59 69 % % 90.7 74.3 4.6 21.4 4.6 4.3
70 and over % 76.8 21.4 1.8
Not Stated % 5.3 1.3 93.4
Total
Source: Polling results
7. Northern Kordofan State < 20
Polling Questions Have you heard that there is a forthcoming election in April 2015?
Do you know the type of the coming election (Presidential, Parliamentary National, at state level)? Do you know other candidates than the current president for the Presidential election?
Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated
% 78.6 10.7 10.7
20 29 % 89.3 6.7 4.0
30 39 % 90.5 5.2 4.3
40 49 % 87.4 6.6 6.0
100 14.3 71.4 14.3
100 22.0 73.3 4.7
100 27.6 67.1 5.2
100 32.5 61.6 6.0
100 41.7 52.8 5.6
100 27.1 68.6 4.3
100 17.9 80.4 1.8
100 1.3 5.3 93.4
100 23.8 56.5 19.7
100 14.3 71.4 14.3
100 14.0 81.3 4.7
100 21.4 73.8 4.8
100 18.5 73.5 7.9
100 14.8 77.8 7.4
100 17.1 77.1 5.7
100 5.4 91.1 3.6
100 1.3 5.3 93.4
100 14.2 65.5 20.3
31
% 73.5 7.4 19.2
Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total Yes No Not Stated Total
100 17.9 67.9 14.3
100 41.3 53.3 5.3
100 42.9 51.9 5.2
100 48.3 44.4 7.3
100 49.1 45.4 5.6
100 50.0 44.3 5.7
100 46.4 50.0 3.6
100 2.6 4.0 93.4
100 37.7 42.1 20.2
100 14.3 71.4 14.3
100 48.7 46.7 4.7
100 50.5 43.8 5.7
100 58.9 33.8 7.3
100 55.6 38.9 5.6
100 57.1 35.7 7.1
100 53.6 42.9 3.6
100 2.0 4.6 93.4
100 43.8 35.8 20.3
100 46.4 35.7 17.9
100 57.3 31.3 11.3
100 54.8 37.1 8.1
100 51.7 36.4 11.9
100 51.9 39.8 8.3
100 44.3 45.7 10.0
100 50.0 41.1 8.9
100 2.0 4.0 94.0
100 44.4 31.8 23.8
100 10.7 75.0 14.3
100 16.0 78.7 5.3
100 18.6 76.2 5.2
100 23.8 67.5 8.6
100 23.1 71.3 5.6
100 21.4 71.4 7.1
100 7.1 83.9 8.9
100 2.0 4.6 93.4
100 16.1 63.0 20.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Do you believe that this Yes election will be No free/honest/transparent? Not Stated Total
50.0 32.1 17.9
42.7 46.0 11.3
35.7 51.0 13.3
37.1 49.7 13.2
36.1 53.7 10.2
28.6 57.1 14.3
28.6 57.1 14.3
2.0 2.6 95.4
31.1 42.6 26.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Are you registered to vote for the election?
Did you vote in the previous election (2010)?
Are you planning to vote in this election?
Have you heard that some parties are boycotting the election?
Source: Polling results
32
