DERIVATIVES FOCUS 6 March 2017 Analyst: Natapon Khamthakrue Register No.: 026637 Tel. 02-646-9820

www.fnsyrus.com, FB: Finansia Syrus Research

SET50 Index Futures: Trade within range; go short in beginning

Main Strategy: Short the S50H17. Take profit at 972-975. Cut loss at 983.7. Alternative Strategy: Long the S50H17 at 972-975. Cash in at 980-984. Stop loss at 971. The S50H17 turned to decrease before it was closed, causing a considerable taint in the big picture. Assuming this outlook, it is possible that the index will continue to move down to its previous support of 972-975, pressured by foreign investors' portfolio adjustment after they recorded a net sell position in equity by about Bt2.1bn and a net short position in the Index Futures by 7,528 contracts or Bt1.5bn. With that, large-cap counters turned to underperform the market once again. In particular, we see this from the SET:SET50 ratio which was up to 1.6x from 1.589x mid last week. However, downside might not open wide instantly because investment sentiment was not bad in the morning. What's more, the Baht turned to appreciate, while crude recovered, making it possible for energy shares to turn to take the lead

Baht/USD

-0.07%

Gold Bar -1.21% SPDR Gold

-0.35%

U.S. T-Yield10Y Dollar Index

0.00% -0.76%

S&P 500

once again.

0.05% 1.49%

Brent Oil

Strategically, we recommend that investors trade within narrow range of 972-984. In the beginning, go short in line with

Silver

0.00% 0.11%

Gold -1.5% -1.0% -0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

the outlook. After which, go long when the index decreases in line with support of 972-975. Note our FSSDS1.1 Multiple Model suggests a short position with 36.4% level of confidence.

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited (FSS). The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however FSS makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. Information and opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. FSS has no intention to solicit investors to buy or sell any security in this report. In addition, FSS does not guarantee returns nor price of the securities described in the report nor accept any liability for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this report. Investors should study this report carefully in making investment decisions. All rights are reserved. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any manner for any purpose without permission of FSS. Investment in securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully before making investment decisions. Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited may act as market maker and issuer of DWs. The company may prepare the research reports on those underlying securities. Investors should carefully read the details of the derivative warrants in the prospectus before making investment decisions.

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derivatives focus - FSS

Mar 6, 2017 - Main Strategy: Short the S50H17. ... Alternative Strategy: Long the S50H17 at 972-975. Cash in ... considerable taint in the big picture.

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