Irineu de Carvalho Filho International Monetary Fund 700 19th Street, N.W., HQ1 10-548 Washington, DC 20431 Phone: (202) 623-8627 E-mail: [email protected]

EDUCATION: Ph.D. in Economics, MIT, 1995-2000 Master in Economics, EPGE-FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 1993-1994 Bachelor in Public Administration, EAESP-FGV, São Paulo, Brazil, 1989-1992 CURRENT APPOINTMENT: Senior Economist at the Strategy, Policy, & Review Department, International Monetary Fund PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: March 2015 to present: Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund Strategy, Policy, & Review Department, Low-Income Countries division; SPR economist for Bosnia and Herzegovina. April 2014 to March 2015:

Senior Vice President at Economic Research area at Itaú-BBA, in São Paulo Manager of the team covering short-term macroeconomic developments in Brazil (activity, inflation, external sector); buyside and sell-side; media appearances (including live TV, but mostly printed press).

May 2010 to April 2014:

Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund Research Department, Open Economy Macroeconomics division.

June 2003 to May 2010:

Economist at the International Monetary Fund Research Department, Open Economy Macroeconomics division. Western Hemisphere Department (Barbados, Belize, Colombia, Dominica and Trinidad and Tobago). IMF Institute, European division.

January 2013 to May 2013

Visiting Associate Professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar

July 2013 to August 2013: Summer ‘00 to May 2003: Fall 1999 to June 2000: Summer 1999: Summer 1998: Summer 1995:

Visiting Scholar at the Swiss National Bank Consultant at The RISConsulting Group LLC Research Associate at the Harvard Law School Consultant at International Institute for Advanced Studies, Inc. Summer Intern at the World Bank Consultant at Banco SRL, São Paulo, Brazil

2 August 1994 to May 1995: August 1994 to May 1995:

Economic Analyst at Bank of Boston, São Paulo, Brazil Lecturer at Universidade Mackenzie, São Paulo, Brazil

HONORS, SCHOLARSHIPS, AND FELLOWSHIPS: 2002: 2001: 1999-2000: 1999: 1997-1999: 1995-1999: 1993-1994:

Winner of the Interamerican Award for Research on Social Security 2002 Co-winner of the John Heinz Dissertation Award, by the National Academy of Social Insurance Dissertation Fellowship, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College Research Grant from the Schultz Fund at MIT Departmental Fellowship from the Department of Economics at MIT CNPq Scholarship for Ph.D. studies CNPq Scholarship for master studies

SELECTED PUBLICATIONS IN REFEREED JOURNALS: The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-Off Episodes (with R. De Bock), Journal of International Money and Finance, 53 (C): 218-234, 2015. Risk-off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows, German Economic Review, 16 (4): 439-463, 2015. Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth (with M. Chamon), China Economic Review, 2014. The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012. Household Income as a Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a Social Security Reform, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 60(2): 399-435, 2012. 28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011. The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources (with R. Bems), Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011. Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008. A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism (with M. Chamon), IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008.

BOOK CHAPTERS: Turtles Don’t Climb Trees: Lack of Floating Results from Global Failures (with I. Goldfajn), in Bretton Woods: The Next 70 Years (ed. Marc Uzan), Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee.

3 WORKING PAPERS: Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from the Global Capital Flow Shocks? (with O. Blanchard and G. Adler), IMF WP 15/159. The Long-run and Intergenerational Education Impacts of Intergovernmental Transfers (with S. Litschig), Barcelona Graduate School of Economics WP 718. The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis (with D. Botman and W. Lam), IMF WP 13/228. Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility: Evidence from Brazil (with M. Estevão), IMF WP 12/84. Education Performance: Was It All Determined 100 Years Ago? Evidence from São Paulo, Brazil (with R. Colistete), MPRA Paper 24494. Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment, IMF WP 10/45. Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries (with R. Bems, revise and resubmit Energy Economics), IMF WP 09/281. The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil (with M. Chamon), IMF WP 06/275.

WORK IN PROGRESS: Note on Services Trade (with M. Bussiere). Common Shocks, Asymmetric Effects: Business Cycles in Brazil and Mexico. How Did China’s Rise Affect Competitiveness across Advanced Economies?.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS IN REFEREED JOURNALS: Immigration and the Origins of Regional Inequality: Government-Sponsored European Migration to Southern Brazil Before World War I (with L. Monasterio), Regional Science and Urban Economics, 42: 794-807, 2012. Smoking Risks in Spain: Part I – Perception of Risks to the Smoker (with F. Antoñanzas, W. Kip Viscusi, J. Rovira, F. J. Braña and F. Portillo), Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 21:2/3; 161-186, 2000. Smoking Risks in Spain: Part II – Perceptions of Environmental Tobacco Smoke Externalities (with J. Rovira, W. Kip Viscusi, F. Antoñanzas, F. Braña and F. Portillo), Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 21:2/3; 187-212, 2000. Smoking Risks in Spain: Part III – Determinants of Smoking Behavior (with W. Kip Viscusi, F. Antoñanzas, Joan Rovira, F.J Braña and F. Portillo), Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 21:2/3; 213234, 2000.

4 PROFESSIONAL INVOLVEMENT: Professional Affiliations: Researcher in the Brazilian Network of Applied Economics (REAP), in the field of Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.

Invited Seminars: Inter-American Development Bank (February 2014), Georgetown University (2012), Cambridge University (2012), Johns Hopkins University (2010), New York Fed (2008), World Bank (2006), Boston University (2002), Georgetown University (2000), Bowdoin College (2000), Oberlin College (1999).

Conference Presentations: American Economic Association, San Francisco (2016); World Economic History Congress, Kyoto, Japan (2015); NBER Summer Institute, in Cambridge, MA (2015); ANPEC, in Natal (2014); LACEA, in São Paulo (2014); Swiss National Bank/CEPR conference on Exchange Rates and External Adjustment, in Zurich (June 2014); Cass Business School/ECB 4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference, in London (May 2014); CEPR 9th Annual Workshop on Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence, in Barcelona (April 2014); Georgetown Center for Economic Research, at Georgetown University (2013); Workshop on Financial Determinants of Exchange Rates at Banca d’Italia in Rome (2012); Global Crisis and Latin American Economies, at University of Southern California (2012), Economic History Association (2010), OxCarre 4th Annual Conference in Oxford, UK (2010), 3 rd International Conference Migration & Développement in Paris (2010), Jacques Polak 8th Annual Research Conference (2007), Bread/CEPR Conference on Development Economics at London School of Economics, London (2007), IMF/WHD Workshop on Economic Growth (2006), Microeconomics of Growth Network Conference at World Bank (2006), LACEA (2005, 2006), CIESS (2002), NEUDC (2001).

Editor Work: Associate Editor for Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics; selection committee of the 2007 meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society.

Referee Work: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Economic History Review, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Empirical Economics, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), European Economic Review, Food Policy, IMF Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of International Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Journal of Population Ageing, Journal of Public Economics, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Revista Brasileira de Economia.

Volunteer Work: member of the MIT Educational Council. LANGUAGES: Native: Portuguese; Fluent: English; Intermediate: Spanish; Beginner: Bosnian.