CTO

Confidential Tip-Off

Confidential Tip-Off The Gold Sheet America’s Handicapping Leaders Since 1957! CTO Vol. 52 March 4-11: FINAL ISSUE, 2016

No. 13

PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 4-11, 2016 * — Denotes Home Team Friday, March 4

*AKRON over Kent State...Can’t resist the temptation to give Akron a shot in its home rivalry revenge game vs. Kent. The Zips have been white hot from distance in their past two games, turning to a Golden State-style of offense following the loss of sr. C Pay Forsythe. In its last two games, both at home, Akron has beaten Ohio by 15 and Bowling Green by 35, with the Zip shooters connecting only 39 of 84 triples. Leading the way has been tough-to-defend 6-7 sr. Reggie McAdams, who has hit seven treys in each game. He was 0 for 4 from downtown in Akron’s 85-76 loss at Kent two weeks ago. The Zips have covered six straight at home. *AKRON 86 - Kent State 66 RATING - 10

Saturday, March 5

*KENTUCKY over Lsu (Day Game)...Payback time for proud Kentucky, which was whomped by 18 in the first meeting this season in Baton Rouge. But that was way back on Jan. 5, before the Wildcats began to jell and before LSU began to wilt. Now, nearly two months later, rebuilding UK has a more-mature scoring crew. PG Tyler Ulis (7.1 apg) is a “coach on the floor,” freshman shooter Jamal Murray has broken loose for 26.4 ppg his last eight, and physical 6-3 freshman Isaiah Briscoe has helped with 11 ppg his last four. Physical sr. Alex Poythress is back in the starting lineup after missing time with a sprained knee. The Wildcats have covered 5 of their last 6 in Lexington. *KENTUCKY 86 - Lsu 62 RATING - 10 *UTEP over Utsa (Day Game)...It’s been a long and mostly dreary season for 5-25 UTSA, which is 1-15 away from home. Make it 1-16, as the proud Miners—trying to keep alive their postseason hopes—remember being victimized by the Roadrunners 71-67 in San Antonio back in January. Since that game, UTSA is 1-11 SU. Meanwhile, UTEP HC Tim Floyd has found success by going small and fast, winning his last four at the Haskins Center, scoring 94 ppg. With the Roadrunners ranking 343rd of 346 teams in scoring defense at 84.5 ppg, look for the Miners to prevail in El Paso. *UTEP 96 - Utsa 72 RATING - 11 AIR FORCE over *Colorado State (Day Game)...MW sources report that after executing at a high level for four straight games to grab four straight covers vs. quality league foes, emotion-sapped AF displayed a discernible lack of energy and pop in its 78-65 home loss to surging Utah State on Tuesday. With the Falcons back to 100% intensity for this revenge game vs. instate rival CSU, expect AF’s bevy of bombers to find the range vs. the permissive Ram defense (allowing 78.2 ppg and 45.6% FGs) after hitting only a rim-rattling 7 of 26 from downtown vs. the Aggies. Note that CSU is only 1-6 as home chalk TY. AIR FORCE 73 - *Colorado State 74 RATING - 11 ST. BONAVENTURE over *Saint Louis...SBU (a lofty RPI of 29) is attracting serious attention from the NCAA Tourney committee after completing its impressive series sweep of Big Dance-bound Saint Joe’s on Wednesday. So have no reservations laying several hoops with the upbeat, road-proven Bonnies, who’ve vanquished better teams on the road TY than A-10 bottom feeder SLU, with that group including the aforementioned Hawks, UMass and conference challenger Dayton. The offensively-stodgy, erratic-gunning Billikens (65.2 ppg; only 41.5% FGs) eventually lose touch with fast-breaking SBU, led by electric sr. G Marcus Posley (19.3 ppg), who erupted for a career-high 47 pts. four days ago. ST. BONAVENTURE 81 - *Saint Louis 65 RATING - 10 GEORGIA SOUTHERN over *Louisiana-Lafayette...Highly-profitable Georgia Southern (12-2 vs spread last 14) still has hopes for a lower-tier postseason tourney with an upset win here. So strongly recommend grabbing 4 or more hoops vs. sliding ULL (1-5 SU last 6), which is a tick under 50% as home chalk since 2014-15. The Eagles’ maturing, DD-scoring duo of 6-3 soph G Mike Hughes & 6-4 true frosh F Ike Smith is eager for a second chance after combining for a season-worst 6 of 27 from the field in GSU’s 74-65 series home loss Jan. 14. GEORGIA SOUTHERN 76 - *Louisiana-Lafayette 77 RATING - 10 NORTH CAROLINA over *Duke... UNC hellbent to end recent slump vs. Duke that includes painful 1-point loss at the Dean Dome on Feb. 17. Heels likely to get more production from Gs Marcus Paige and Joel Berry II after their stink-o 4-for-22 FG shooting in the first meeting, when UNC blew a late 8-point lead. But Heels still owns size and depth advantages, and ongoing absence of top Duke interior defender Amile Jefferson remains an issue as Coach K looks for a way to deal with UNC high scorer PF Brice Johnson, who scored 28 that night. Tar Heels can go a long way toward landing a top regional seed with a win. NORTH CAROLINA 78 - *Duke 70 RATING - 10

Sunday, March 6

TEMPLE over *Tulane (Day Game)...Facing a potential Big Dance case-killing loss risk, expect Temple to maintain needed focus in New Orleans, where the home crowds for the Green Wave could often fit inside of a nearby Waffle House. Fran Dunphy has uncovered a new goto offensive threat in soph F Obi Enechionyia, who has scored 19 ppg over the last five games to emerge as a reliable second option behind G Quenton DeCosey (16 ppg). The Wave still has limitations (such as its poor 30.5% shooting beyond arc), and note that top threat Louis Dabney has missed all six of his triple attempts over the past two games. TEMPLE 73 - *Tulane 57 RATING - 10

Wednesday, March 9

MIAMI over *Milwaukee (NBA)...Miami has been playing consistently well since late January, winning 12 of 17 SU with a 13-4 pointspread record from Jan. 26 through March 3. The Heat have been benefiting from the leadership and scoring of vet G Dwyane Wade (22 ppg in his last 10 through March 3) and balanced scoring backing him up, with G Goran Dragic, C Hassan Whiteside and F Luol Deng all scoring 17-18 ppg in the last 10 outings. Miami has even played through the absence of PF/C Chris Bosh (19 ppg, 7.4 rpg this season), covering 7 of first 8 after he was sidelined with a recurrence of blood clots. No major knocks on Milwaukee, but the Bucks had dropped 4 of their last 5 against the points at home prior to facing Minny on Friday and OKC Sunday at the BMO Bradley Center. MIAMI 112 - *Milwaukee 100 RATING - 11

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