Contents I

Foundations

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1 Entering the ‘Matrix Laboratory’ 1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Our “Hello World”: OLS in Matlab 1.3 The beauty of functions . . . . . . . 1.4 A simple utility function . . . . . . . 1.5 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . .

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2 Optimisation I: The Agent Optimises 2.1 Profit maximisation and linear programming . . 2.2 Utility maximisation and non-linear optimisation 2.3 Simulating heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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3 Optimisation II: The Economist Optimises 53 3.1 Maximising likelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.2 Generalised Method of Moments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 3.3 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

II

Discrete Choice

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4 Discrete Multinomial Choice 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 The binary logit model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 The model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Simulating the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Estimating the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 Estimating by simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 The multinomial logit model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 The model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Simulating, estimating and estimating by simulation 4.4 Multinomial Probit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1 Independence assumptions in the Multinomial Logit

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67 68 69 69 70 72 74 78 78 81 87 87

4.4.2 Simulating the model . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.3 Estimating by simulation . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.4 Estimating by simulation: A logit-smoothed 4.5 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.A Deriving the Multinomial Logit log-likelihood . . . 5 Discrete Games 5.1 Introduction: A simple Cournot game . . . . . . 5.1.1 Finding the best-response function . . . . 5.2 Estimating a discrete Bayesian game . . . . . . . 5.2.1 A simple discrete game . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 Implementing the best-response functions 5.2.3 Solving the game numerically . . . . . . . 5.2.4 Simulating the game . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.5 Estimating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

III

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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AR simulator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Dynamics

89 90 92 97 98 100 100 102 109 109 113 115 116 119 124

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6 Dynamic Choice on a Finite Horizon 6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Dynamic decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Household consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2 A small firm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 Introducing the value function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1 Dynamic programming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.2 Computational accuracy, curse of dimensionality and memoization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 Shocks, uncertainty, and microeconometrics . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

126 126 127 127 134 138 139

7 Dynamic Choice on an Infinite Horizon 7.1 Value functions and infinite solutions . . . . . 7.1.1 A rough outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 Computation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Policy iterations and faster solutions . . . . . 7.3 Solving for structural parameters using GMM 7.3.1 Applying GMM to our dynamic model 7.3.2 Final thoughts on estimation . . . . . 7.4 Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.A Analytically iterating the value function . . .

154 156 156 158 165 169 171 175 176 176

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145 147 153

IV

Non-Parametric Methods

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8 Kernel Regression 8.1 Parametric v. nonparametric approaches 8.2 Univariate kernel regression . . . . . . . 8.3 Structures and cell arrays . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 Cell arrays . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2 Structure arrays . . . . . . . . . 8.4 Impact of kernel and bandwidth choice . 8.5 Cross validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . . . .

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182 183 187 191 192 194 197 204 210

9 Semiparametric Methods 9.1 Multivariate kernels . . . . . . . . 9.2 The curse of dimensionality . . . . 9.3 Approaches to dimension reduction 9.4 Partially linear model . . . . . . . 9.4.1 Robinson’s approach . . . . 9.4.2 Implementation . . . . . . . 9.5 Single index model . . . . . . . . . 9.5.1 Ichimura’s estimator . . . . 9.5.2 Implementation . . . . . . . 9.6 Review and exercises . . . . . . . .

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211 212 215 216 217 218 219 221 223 224 229

V

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Speed

10 Speeding Things Up. . . 10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . 10.2 Clever coding . . . . . . 10.2.1 Vectorising . . . 10.2.2 Sparse matrices . 10.2.3 Profiling code . . 10.2.4 Waiting. . . . . . 10.3 Parallel computing . . . 10.4 Parallel computing plus: 10.5 Other tricks . . . . . . .

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11 . . . and Slowing Things Down

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231 231 232 232 234 237 239 241 245 249 251

3

Contents

90. 4.4.4 Estimating by simulation: A logit-smoothed AR simulator 92. 4.5 Review and exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97. 4.A Deriving the Multinomial Logit log-likelihood . . . . . . . . . . . 98. 5 Discrete Games. 100. 5.1 Introduction: A simple Cournot game . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100. 5.1.1 Finding the best-response function .

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