MEDIA INQUIRIES:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Conservative Lead Grows Trudeau’s disapproval high Toronto, May 17th, 2018 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1484 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost half (46%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a third (30%) say they would support the Liberals. One-fifth (18%) say they would support the NDP. Few say they would support the Green Party (4%), BQ (2%), or another party (1%). Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (50%), 55-64 (48%), or 65+ (48%), males (52%), earning $60,000$80,000 (54%), the least educated (52%), and living in Alberta (65%).

“The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The Prime Minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now and that could account for the lack of support for his party.”

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 4554 (35%) or 65+ (34%), with a college/university (32%) or post-graduate degree (35%), and living in the Atlantic provinces (44%). Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (31%), females (21%), the least wealthy (25%) or earning $20,000$40,000 (24%), and living in BC (28%).

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180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Conservative Majority Based on these results, we project the Conservatives would secure a majority government with 234 seats. The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 72 seats, and the NDP would secure 30 seats. The BQ and the Green party would secure 1 seat each.

Trudeau Approval Down, Disapproval Up Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (35%) and disapproval from more than half (56%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (9%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -21. Andrew Scheer sees approval from a third (31%) and disapproval from a third (34%). A third say they do not know (35%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -3. Jagmeet Singh sees approval from one-quarter (27%) and disapproval from a third (35%). 4 in 10 (38%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -8.

“The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The Prime Minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now and that could account for the lack of support for his party.” Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at [email protected] or at (416) 960-9603.

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180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Methodology The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1484 randomly selected Canadian Voters. The poll was conducted May 15-16, 2018. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Actual results depend on the parties’ ability to get their voters out. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll™and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp

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180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Support Trending

% 15th-16th,

May 2018 April 19th-20th, 2018 February 27th-March 1st, 2018 January 22nd-24th, 2018 December 12th-14th, 2017 November 4th-6th, 2017 September 13th-14th, 2017 August 16th-17th, 2017 June 6th-8th , 2017 April 21st-24th, 2017 Mar 22nd - 23rd, 2017 Feb. 24th - 26th, 2017 Jan. 19th -21st, 2017 Dec. 6th-8th, 2016 November 9th-10th, 2016 October 11th-12th September 20-21st, 2016 September 7th, 2016 August 6th, 2016 July 6th, 2016 June 7th, 2016 April 4th-5th, 2016 March 15th, 2016 Feb. 16th-17th, 2016 Dec. 6th-8th, 2015 November 17th, 2015 Nov. 4th-7th, 2015 Election: Oct. 19th, 2015 October 18th, 2015 Oct. 13th-14th, 2015 Oct. 9th, 2015 Oct 5th-6th, 2015 Sept. 28-29th, 2015

4

Sample

Cons

Lib

NDP

Green

Bloc

Other

1484 1585

46 43

30 30

18 14

4 8

2 4

1 1

941

46

34

14

3

2

1

1408

43

38

12

3

3

0

1284

39

38

12

5

5

1

1281

38

36

14

6

6

1

1350

39

35

15

4

5

1

1150

35

42

14

4

4

1

1483 1479 1029 1340 1332 1304

34 35 38 35 36 34

42 35 36 39 42 42

12 17 15 15 12 12

6 7 4 4 5 6

5 5 6 7 4 5

1 1 0 1 1 1

1474

28

51

11

5

4

1

1384

30

49

12

4

5

1

1326

34

47

9

3

6

0

1370 1345 1429 2271 1455 1567 1406 1369 909 1256

30 31 28 32 28 34 32 32 37 25

48 50 52 49 51 46 49 46 45 55

11 10 11 10 12 12 10 13 10 12

4 4 3 4 3 3 5 4 3 3

5 4 5 4 6 4 3 4 4 4

0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

32

40

20

3

5

0

30 31 31 31 34

40 37 37 35 27

20 24 23 26 28

3 2 3 3 5

6 6 5 4 5

1 1 1 1 1

1373 1438 1427 1447 1449

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Seat Distribution Projection Trending

% April 19th-20th, 2018 February

27th-March

1st,

2018

Lib

NDP

Green

Bloc

Other

234

72

30

1

1

0

207

100

23

2

6

0

213

99

24

1

1

0

January 22nd-24th, 2018

181

142

14

1

0

0

December 12th-14th, 2017

147

166

15

1

9

0

148

164

15

2

11

0

November

4th-6th,

September

13th-14th,

2017 2017

169

130

26

1

12

0

August 16th-17th, 2017

105

211

16

1

5

0

June 6th-8th, 2017

113

204

15

1

5

0

137

152

36

1

12

0

April Mar

21st-24th,

22nd

–

2017

23rd,

2017

170

128

26

1

13

0

February 24th – 26th, 2017

120

174

20

1

23

0

January 19th – 21st, 2017

131

187

15

1

4

0

18

1

4

0

Dec.

5

Cons

May 15th-16th, 2018

6th-8th,

2016

135

180

November 9th-10th, 2016

72

257

8

1

0

0

October 11th-12th September 20-21st, 2016 September 7th, 2016 August 6th, 2016 July 6th, 2016 June 7th, 2016 April 4th-5th, 2016 March 15th, 2016 February 16th-17th, 2016 December 6th-8th, 2015 November 17th, 2015 November 4th-7th, 2015 Election: October 19th, 2015 October 18th, 2015 Oct. 13th-14th, 2015 October 9th, 2015 October 5th-6th, 2015 September 28-29th, 2015 September 21-23rd, 2015 September 18th, 2015 September 14-15th, 2015

83 111 87 81 55 98 74 111 91 99 108 57 99 109 114 116 122 151 125 145 138

240 219 238 246 278 230 256 215 240 224 222 276 184 171 127 145 120 76 107 97 86

14 7 8 10 5 9 5 11 6 14 6 5 44 46 77 69 94 104 104 95 113

1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0 0 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 10 11 19 7 1 6 1 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Trudeau Approval Trending

%

Approve

Disapprove

Don't Know

May 16th, 2018 April 27th, 2018 February 4th, 2018 December 19th, 2017 September 24th, 2017 August 29th, 2017 March 9th, 2017 April 27th, 2017 January 24th, 2017 December 10, 2016 November 27th, 2016 October 13, 2016 September 26th 2016 September 13th, 2016 August 8th, 2016 July 6th, 2016 June 10th, 2016 May 16th, 2016 April 9th, 2016 March 18th, 2016 February 20th, 2016 December 11th, 2015 November 11th, 2015

35 33 44 42 43 49 45 42 48 51 58 56 54 55 60 62 57 57 58 54 57 57 60

56 58 47 47 47 42 44 47 42 39 32 35 35 36 30 29 33 34 33 35 34 30 20

9 9 9 11 11 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 11 9 13 20

Scheer Approval Trending

%

Approve

Disapprove

Don't Know

May 16th, 2018 April 27th, 2018 February 4th, 2018 December 19th, 2017 September 24th, 2018 August 29th, 2017

31 31 28 28 26 25

34 29 29 28 30 26

35 40 43 44 44 48

Singh Approval Trending

6

%

Approve

Disapprove

Don't Know

May 16th, 2018 April 27th, 2018 February 4th, 2018 December 19th, 2017

27 24 26 28

35 39 29 27

38 39 46 45

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Voter intention If a federal election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Decided and leaning] Age/Gender

%

Total

18-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Male

Female

Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other

1398 46 30 18 4 2 1

204 37 26 31 4 0 1

175 47 26 16 8 2 1

188 50 35 11 1 1 1

328 48 30 16 4 2 0

503 48 34 14 2 2 1

739 52 29 14 3 2 1

634 40 32 21 4 2 1

%

Total

<$20K

Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other

1398 46 30

Income 121 39 25

$20$40K 240 36 31

$40$60K 204 48 31

$60$80K 168 54 22

$80$100K 139 50 32

$100$250K 240 48 33

18

25

24

16

19

14

15

4 2 1

6 4 2

5 3 1

4 1 0

2 2 1

3 1 1

3 0 1

Region

7

%

Total

ATL

QC

ON

MB/SK

AB

BC

Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other

1398 46 30 18 4 2 1

181 39 44 12 4 0 1

262 38 35 14 5 7 1

331 46 30 20 3 0 1

255 53 21 21 4 0 1

198 65 24 10 2 0 0

171 40 27 28 4 0 0

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Education

8

382 48 26

Completed college or university 498 44 32

Post graduate studies 261 41 35

14

18

20

17

4

3

5

3

4

2

2

2

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

%

Total

Secondary school or less

Some college or university

Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other

1398 46 30

257 52 28

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Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Trudeau approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister? Age/Gender

%

Total

18-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Male

Female

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 35 56 9

215 39 53 8

182 36 55 9

201 35 56 8

347 32 59 9

539 34 56 10

771 31 62 7

688 39 50 11

%

Total

<$20K

$20-$40K

$40-$60K

$60-$80K

$80-$100K

$100-$250K

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 35 56 9

133 39 49 12

253 33 55 12

211 37 55 7

182 23 67 11

146 35 58 7

249 42 52 6

Income

Education 1484 35 56

Secondary school or less 274 30 61

Some college or university 404 33 60

Completed college or university 529 37 52

Post graduate studies 277 40 54

9

9

8

11

6

%

Total

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

Region

%

Total

ATL

QC

ON

MB/SK

AB

BC

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 35 56 9

200 42 51 7

284 40 47 13

348 36 55 8

271 26 62 12

203 20 72 8

178 36 60 4

Voter Intention

9

%

Total

Conservative

Liberal

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 35 56

621 7 90

400 79 12

New Democratic 228 40 49

9

3

9

11

81 31 53

Bloc Quebecois 25 24 55

16

21

Green

Other 43 17 72 12

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Andrew Scheer approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as leader of the opposition? Age/Gender

%

Total

18-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Male

Female

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 31 34 35

215 23 43 34

182 35 29 36

201 33 32 36

347 36 30 34

539 35 29 36

771 38 35 26

688 25 32 44

%

Total

<$20K

$20-$40K

$40-$60K

$60-$80K

$80-$100K

$100-$250K

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 31 34 35

133 24 25 51

253 26 27 47

211 34 38 28

182 35 36 29

146 33 33 34

249 34 40 26

Income

Education 1484 31 34

Secondary school or less 274 31 27

Some college or university 404 34 27

Completed college or university 529 31 38

Post graduate studies 277 29 40

35

42

39

31

31

%

Total

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

Region

%

Total

ATL

QC

ON

MB/SK

AB

BC

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 31 34 35

200 31 29 39

284 34 29 37

348 29 40 32

271 33 27 39

203 35 30 36

178 31 32 37

Voter Intention

%

Total

Conservative

Liberal

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 31 34

621 62 12

400 13 49

New Democratic 228 13 56

35

26

38

31

10

81 25 29

Bloc Quebecois 25 21 23

46

56

Green

Other 43 6 42 52

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

Jagmeet Singh approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the NDP? Age/Gender

%

Total

18-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Male

Female

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 27 35 38

215 36 29 35

182 25 33 42

201 31 34 36

347 22 44 34

539 15 40 45

771 28 42 30

688 26 29 45

%

Total

<$20K

$20-$40K

$40-$60K

$60-$80K

$80-$100K

$100-$250K

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 27 35 38

133 28 28 44

253 30 22 48

211 27 41 33

182 29 36 35

146 23 39 38

249 33 36 31

Income

Region 1484 27 35

Secondary school or less 274 22 36

Some college or university 404 22 40

Completed college or university 529 30 31

Post graduate studies 277 32 35

38

41

38

39

33

%

Total

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

Education

%

Total

ATL

QC

ON

MB/SK

AB

BC

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 27 35 38

200 25 32 43

284 31 27 43

348 29 35 36

271 26 40 34

203 17 46 36

178 23 41 36

Voter Intention

%

Total

Conservative

Liberal

Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know

1484 27 35

621 13 56

400 32 26

New Democratic 228 61 12

38

31

42

27

11

81 24 23

Bloc Quebecois 25 20 26

54

54

Green

Other 43 3 52 45

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com

MEDIA INQUIRIES:

For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E-mail: [email protected]

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Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected] 416.960.9603

180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com