Stats: Modeling the World – Chapter 11

Chapter 11: Understanding Randomness Simulation Steps 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Identify the _______________ to be repeated. Explain how you will model the _______________. Explain how you will simulate the _______________. State clearly what the _______________ variable is. Run several _______________. Analyze the _______________ variable. State your _______________ (in the _______________ of the problem, as always). 1. Suppose a basketball player has an 80% free throw success rate. How can we use random numbers to simulate whether or not she makes a foul shot? How many shots might she be able to make in a row without missing? Conduct 20 trials. Component: Outcomes: Trial:

Response variable: Results:

Statistic: Conclusion:

2. How would our simulation procedure change if her success rate were only 72%? Component: Outcomes: Trial: Response variable: Results: Statistic: Conclusion:

Stats: Modeling the World – Chapter 11

3. How would a trial and our response variable change if we wanted to know how many shots she might make out of 5 chances she gets at a crucial point in the game? Component: Outcomes: Trial:

Response variable: Results: Statistic: Conclusion:

4. How would a trial and our response variable change if we want to know her chances of hitting both shots when she goes to the line to shoot two? Component: Outcomes: Trial:

Response variable: Results: Statistic: Conclusion:

5. How would the simulation change if we want to know her score in a 1-and-1 situation. (Here she gets to try the second shot only if the first shot is successful.) Component: Outcomes: Trial:

Response variable: Results: Statistic: Conclusion:

Chapter 2: Data

Suppose a basketball player has an 80% free throw success rate. How can we use random numbers to simulate whether or not she makes a foul shot?

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