An Overview of the SPACE SOLAR POWER (SSP) Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program Challenges and Opportunities

Spring 2000 John C. Mankins Advanced Projects Office Office of Space Flight NASA Headquarters Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 1

An Overview of SERT

Contents

Background • Context – Terrestrial Power Applications – Space Applications

• The SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program • Selected Issues and Factors • Conclusions Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 2

A Review of Space Solar Power

Background (1 of 2)

• The Solar Power Satellite (SPS) concept was invented in 1968 by Dr. Peter Glaser and examined in the 1970s by DOE and NASA; however work stopped in 1980-1981 because ... – The cost-to-first power > $250B (‘96,$) for the 1979 SPS Reference System – Massive initial government investment in infrastructure required – Too many dramatic advances in technology needed – Largely a “US-only” proposition with poor international involvement – Reagan Administration (1980-1981) had other priorities – US OTA and NRC criticized early deployment (1990s) scenario strongly – Urgency faded as oil prices plummeted in the early 1980s • What has changed? – A huge global market for new energy sources has developed – Concerns about “Greenhouse Gas” emissions and Global Climate Change are growing – US National Space Policy calls for NASA to drive ETO costs down dramatically (Independent of SPS/SSP) – Important technical advances have been made and new R&T avenues identified – Potential space applications of key technologies/systems have been identified – Both for NASA and Commercial Space – Strong opportunities appear to exist for international interest and involvement

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 3

SOLAR POWER SATELLITES

1979 SPS REFERENCE SYSTEM CONCEPT (GEO) 5 km

Array Structure

10 km Solar Cell Array

Transmitting Antenna Subarray DC-RF Power Amplifiers

High Power Density Microwave Beam 1 km Diam.

Antenna Waveguides

5 GW SPS in GEO 60 Satellites

Half-Wave Dipole Antenna

(300 GW Total)

250 MT RLV-HLLV (assuming $25 /lb to LEO)

Large LEO Factory Open-Screen Ground Plane 300-500 Astronauts (in LEO/GEO for 20 yrs)

Spring 2000

Rectifying Antenna

Low Power Density Microwave Beam

10km x 13km at 35 deg. latitude

jmankins-6/97 4 JMANKINS_page

A Review of Space Solar Power

Background (2 of 2)

• During 1995-1997, NASA conducted a “Fresh Look” study of space solar power (SSP) concepts and technologies – Approaches emerged that appeared to be much more viable — technically and economically — than past systems designs

• The US Congress / OMB expressed interest in SSP in Winter 1997/1998 – A follow-on to the “Fresh Look” study was suggested – During 1998 NASA conducted a $2M SSP Concept Definition Study (CDS) – Also, the FY 1999 “President’s Budget” proposed the creation of a SSP program with funding of $5M in both FY 1999 and FY 2000; and following action by the US Congress, a budget of $15M in FY 1999 was appropriated for SSP studies and technology

• During FY 1999-2000, a “Space Solar Power (SSP) Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) program is being conducted (@~$22M) – Including systems studies, technology research tasks, technology demonstrations

• The Bottom Line? – Multi-megawatt SSP systems appear viable, with numerous space applications – Ambitious research, technology development and validation over a period of perhaps 15-20 years would be required to enable SSP concepts (phased at various scales and power levels) to be considered “ready” for development Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 5

An Overview of SERT

Contents

• Background Context -- Terrestrial Applications • Context – Space Applications • The SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program • Selected Issues and Factors • Conclusions

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 6

The Emerging Global Energy Marketplace Global demand for energy is soaring due to growing populations and economies

20

•

Electricity is the fastest growing end-use form of energy

16

•

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations are the largest consumers of electricity

•

Still, many are un-served or underserved – 2 billion people not yet connected to electric power grids

• •

NON-OECD nations will use more than 1/2 of the World’s Energy by 2015 However, there are serious environmental challenges – Increasing emphasis is being place on renewable energy sources

Spring 2000

18 Trillion Kilowatt-Hours

•

Total Electricity Consumption

And Continuing ...

In 1990, OECD countries used more than 2/3

14 12 10 8 6

By 2015+, non-OECD countries will use more than 1/2

4 2 0

DOE / EIA data

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

Where each 0.01 Trillion Kilowatt-Hours is equivalent to 3 Million Tons of Coal per Year jmankins-6/97 7 JMANKINS_page

The Impact on Energy of Stabilizing CO2 Levels in the Atmosphere CONSEQUENCES OF ALTERNATIVE GLOBAL ENERGY PRODUCT (REGARDING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GOALS)

> 16 TW

60.00

Carbon-Neutral Power Generation Capacity Required to Stabilize the atmosphere at 4-times preindustrial CO2 levels

TOTAL GLOBAL POW FORECAST 50.00

40.00

non-Renewable Power if CO2@IS92a non-Renewable Power if CO2@550

30.00

~ 40 TW 20.00

Carbon-Neutral Power Generation Capacity Required to Stabilize at 2-times pre-industrial levels

10.00

0.00 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

YEAR

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 8

Large-Scale Renewable Energy Projects

The 3 Gorges Dam Example

• Project: Three Gorges Dam • Location: Yangtze River, China • Sponsors: – China & International Investors

• Concept: – Ultra-large hydro-power dam project to provide power for megacity Chongquing (15M people) – Twenty-six 700MW generators in a single dam – Construction: 1995 to 2014+ 5; @ 40,000 workers • Studies: 1978 to 1994 • 607ft high, 7054ft long, 44-times larger than Great Pyramid

• Impact:

– 418 mi2 reservoir – 104 towns & 100 archaeological sites to be flooded, 175 species threatened; 1.2M people displaced (with 5:1 loss in productivity in farming (mountain vs. near river)

• Power Output: 18,000 MW – Note: Equals 50,000,000 tons/year of coal

• Cost: $ 70,000 M Spring 2000

(approx. $4 per watt) JMANKINS_page 9

Comparison of Technology Challenges

Space Solar Power Compared to Terrestrial Solar Power z

z

z

The technology challenge facing ground-based solar power systems is in many ways harder than that for spacebased systems The total solar energy available at a typical site on the Earth’s surface is much less than in space Moreover, the energy available varies widely — seasonally and daily – thus, requiring drastic over-capacity as well as costly largescale energy storage to provide baseload power

Spring 2000

1400

1200 1000

Sp ace J u n e Av e rag e

800

De c. Av e rag e

W at t s / m 2 600

Average Solar Energy Available

400 200

0 0 :0 0

3 :0 0

6 :0 0

9 :0 0

1 2 :0 0

1 5 :0 0

1 8 :0 0

2 1 :0 0

Ti m e o f Day 1000 J u n e Be s t J u n e Av e rag e

800

J u n e Wo rs t 600

Wat t s / m 2 400

Solar Energy Available at a Typical Location in the U.K.

200

0 0 :0 0

3 :0 0

6 :0 0

9 :0 0

1 2 :0 0

1 5 :0 0

1 8 :0 0

2 1 :0 0

Ti m e o f Da y

JMANKINS_page 10

Projected SSP Capability in 2020 Timeframe

Comparison With Terrestrial Power Options Baseload Power*

> ~$ 900 / W (est.)

20.0

Capital Cost ($ / W)

18.0

~$ 6-8 / W (est.)

Includes costs of Power Transmission & Storage

6.0 4.0

~$5/W ~$4/W

~$3/W ~$2/W

2.0

> $5.00

Cost of Power (¢ / kW-hr)

12 8

~ $15-20 / W

Intermittent Power Only

INSTALLATION COST

per kW-hr (est.)

~3¢

~ 4-5 ¢

per kW-hr

per kW-hr

~3¢

(est.)

~ 4-5 ¢ per kW-hr

per kW-hr

per kW-hr

4

(40 yrs)

~ 5-6 ¢

~5¢

per kW-hr

COST OF POWER

CO2 Emissions (gm / kW-hr)

~ 1200+

gm/ kW-hr

1000

~ 600+

gm/ kW-hr

10

Coal

Natural Gas

gm/ kW-hr

Varying

Nuclear

Hydro

*Assumes a 10-fold improvement in energy storage technology during the next 20 years Spring 2000

(30 yrs)

(est.)

~ 20+

100

CO2 Emissions

~ 200+ gm/kW-hr ~ 30 gm/kW-hr (est.)

Terrestrial Solar (PV) Power

Space Solar Power JMANKINS_page 11

An Overview of the SERT

Contents

• Background • Context – Terrestrial Applications Context -- Space Applications • The SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program • Selected Issues and Factors • Conclusions

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 12

Diverse Potential Space Applications Science • • • •

SEPS stages for outer planet robotic science missions Interstellar probes and precursor missions (e.g., lightsails) Non-RTG/nuclear power for “Planet-Finder” science mission (@ 3-5 AU) Integrated radar/high-rate communications small body missions

Exploration • Mars and Lunar Orbit WPT for Surface Power • SEPS Vehicles for Exploration throughout the Inner Solar System – Lunar Cargo Space Transfer Vehicles – Mars/Asteroid Transfer Vehicles (Cargo and Piloted)

Commercial • SEPS and/or STUS stages for commercial GEO communications satellites • High power for commercial GEO communications satellites • New Space Industries (far-term) Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 13

Space Science Applications

Near- to Mid- Term: SEPS and High Power Probes • High delta-velocity SEPS propulsion for diverse missions – Comet rendezvous and/or sample return – Multiple Main Belt asteroid rendezvous – Advanced EP for outer planet missions

• Integrated SEPS/High-power missions – e.g., COMAPP Concept (SEPS/radar)

• High Power planetary radar (ground, space?) • Others ...

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 14

Development of Space — New Space Industries

NEAR- to MID- TERM OPTIONS

Key SSP technologies are also needed for possible commercialization and development of space opportunities in the mid-term • Affordable ETO Transportation, low-cost in space transportation, robotic maintenance and servicing, autonomous operations, space habitation, megawatt space power, etc. ...

Research & Development in Space High-Power GEOSats and new Satellite Services Spring 2000

SPACE BUSINESS PARK OPTION?

In Space Manufacturing JMANKINS_page 15

Mid- to Far- Term Applications to Exploration

Lunar Exploration and Development Long-term need for SSP in support of evolutionary Lunar surface activities, including ... • Low mass arrays for early robotic landers and rovers • WPT for probes of polar shadowed region • High power for in situ resource utilization (ISRU) – early R&D and eventual operations – Production and cryogen liquifaction/storage • Early science “from the moon” • In the long-term: large scale power for lunar settlement and industrialization

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 16

Space Science Applications

Mid- to Far- Term Interstellar Probes & Precursors

• Ultra-large, light weight structures for light sail propulsion – Outer planet missions

• LaserSail and/or MicrowaveSail interstellar precursors

QuickTime™ and a Photo - JPEG decompressor are needed to see this picture.

– Outer planet probes – Kuiper Belt probes – Oort Cloud mission

• Robotic Interstellar Probes

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 17

Mid- to Far- Term Applications to Exploration

“Solar Clipper” Architecture

• VISIONARY SSP TECHNOLOGY MAY BE USED TO ENABLE A REVOLUTIONARY ARCHITECTURE FOR HUMAN EXPLORATION OF MARS – Mars transportation using modular, multi-megawatt solar electric propulsion systems

• Key technical strategies – Space Solar Power R&T -- Large SEPS Transportation – Mars orbital basing of human missions — versus Mars surface basing – Reusable Mars Excursion Vehicles, landing humans at 2 or more sites per mission • Enabled by RLV R&D / Space Shuttle Upgrades – Use of teleoperated /autonomous robot probes to explore 40-50 additional surface sites per mission – Exploitation of International Space Station R&T/evolution – RLV-class ETO transport, with excursion vehicles launched separately – Future evolution using wireless power transmission could enable non-nuclear surface bases/operations MISSION ARCHITECTURE

1st Mission

5 Missions

90-Study Mars Architecture

~ $ 80 B

~ $ 160 B

Recent NTR/ISRU Architecture

~ $ 40 B

~ $ 90 B

An SSP-Derived Architecture

~ $ 20 B

~ $ 35 B

Spring 2000

• Preliminary analysis suggests potentially dramatic savings …

JMANKINS_page 18

Development of Space — New Space Industries

MID- TO FAR-TERM OPTIONS

Key SSP technologies are also needed for possible commercialization and development of space opportunities in the mid- to far-term • Very low cost ETO and in space transportation, robotic maintenance and servicing, autonomous operations, space habitation, multi-megawatt space power, etc. ...

Power Utilities in Space

Public Space Travel and Tourism Spring 2000

NEW SPACE INDUSTRIES

Space Resources Development JMANKINS_page 19

21st Century Space Mission Challenges and … SSP Technology Areas SPACE SOLAR POWER

Technology Roadmap Areas

21 st CENTURY SPACE MISSION

Technology Opportunities / Challenges

Solar Power Gen.

Wireless

Power Trans

Poer Mgt & Dist

Structure, Matls & Controls

Thermal Mgt & Materials

Assy, Maint & Ops

Human Health and Support

Platform Ground Systems Segment Systems

ETO Trans & Infr

In Space Trans & Infr

Environ & Safety Factors

Systems Integration

?

Human- Machine

Systems

Information & Automation

?

Instruments & Laboratories

?

Space Transportation

?

?

Space Power Space Platforms

?

Surface Systems

?

Systems Studies

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 20

An Overview of SERT

Contents

• Background • Context The SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program • Selected Issues and Factors • Conclusions

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 21

SSP Exploratory Research and Technology

Program Goals and Objectives GOAL • The goal of the Space Solar Power Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) activity is to conduct preliminary strategic technology research and development to enable large, multi-megawatt space solar power (SSP) systems and wireless power transmission (WPT) for government missions and commercial markets (in-space and terrestrial)

OBJECTIVES •

• •

Refining and modeling systems approaches for the utilization of SSP concepts and technologies, ranging from the near-term (e.g., for space science, exploration and commercial space applications) to the far-term (e.g., SSP for terrestrial markets), including systems concepts, architectures, technology, infrastructure (e.g. transportation), and economics Conducting technology research, development and demonstration activities to produce “proof-of-concept” validation of critical SSP elements for both nearer and farther-term applications Initiating partnerships nationally and internationally that could be expanded, as appropriate, to pursue later SSP technology and applications (e.g., space science, colonization, etc.)

RATIONALE

Accomplishing these objectives will ... • Allow informed future decisions regarding further SSP and related R&D investments by both NASA management and prospective external partners • Guide further definition of SSP and related technology roadmaps including performance objectives, resources and schedules; including “multi-purpose” applications (commercial, science, and government) Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 22

SSP Exploratory Research and Technology

Approach*

• Implementation over approximately 18 months • Conducted by a broadly-based, well-balanced team – A National Team, spanning several NASA centers, other Agencies, National Labs, US industry and universities – Independent non-NASA experts in energy, aerospace technology, etc., to examine SSP concepts, options, risks, and provide inputs for future planning – International organizations, as appropriate

• Through a focused portfolio of R&D investments, guided by systems studies with the maximum degree of leveraging of existing resources inside and outside NASA; comprised of 3 complementary elements: – Systems Studies and Analysis: Analysis of SSP systems and architecture concepts (including space applications). Efforts will include market/economic analyses to address the potential economic viability of SSP concepts, as well as environmental issue assessments, for various potential terrestrial and space markets. – SSP Research & Technology: tightly focused exploratory research targeting “tall poles” and rapid analysis to identify promising systems concepts and establish technical viability to “first-order”. – SSP Technology Demonstrations: initial, small-scale demonstrations of key SSP concepts/components using nearer-term technologies, with an emphasis on enabling multi-purpose (space or terrestrial) applications of SSP and related systems/technologies

– With both “In-house” and competitively procured activities *Revised to reflect FY2000 funding Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 23

SSP Exploratory Research & Technology Program

Program Work Breakdown Structure

A.0 B.1 B.2 B.3 B.4 B.5 B.6 B.7 B.8 B.9 B.10 B.11 B.12 B.13 B.14 Spring 2000

Space Solar Power Solar Power Generation Wireless Power Transmission Power Management & Distribution Structures, Materials & Controls Thermal Materials & Management Robotic Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing Platform Systems Ground Power Systems Earth-to-Orbit Transportation & Infrastructure In-Space Transportation & Infrastructure Environmental & Safety Factors Systems Integration (Analysis, Engineering, Modeling) Applications Studies (Science/Exploration/Commercial) Independent Economic and Market Analysis Studies JMANKINS_page 24

Overall SERT Meeting/Reporting Hierarchy Four Levels of SERT Coordination & Reporting Exist ... – Technical Interchange Meetings (TIMs) and Working-Level Briefing Packages

ar c

SI-WG Meetings, Briefings & Reports, SSP R&T Roadmaps

ese hC

Research & Technology Working Group Teleconference, Meetings, Briefings & Reports

er ent

– Industry-to-Government, etc., Reports; Briefings; Deliverables, etc.

al R

– Research & Technology Working Group (R&T-WG) Meetings with Detailed Working Briefing Packages, etc.

u Virt

– SERT Integration Working Group (SI-WG) Meetings; with SAE&I-level working briefings, Documents, Databases and the SSP Technology Roadmap(s)

TIMs, Final Briefing & Report

Plus, Several “Independent” Groups at the TIM-Level

Industry-to-Government/University-toGovernment Briefings & Reports Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 25

SSP Exploratory Research & Technology

Program Integration NASA HQ

Senior Management Oversight Committee

SERT Program Management Group

B.1 thru’ B.8 (plus B.10)

NRC Review B.12

Research & Technology Working Groups

B.14

SERT Systems Integration Working Group

R&T and Demo Projects

B.12

A.0

B.11 Technology Assessments & Road Map Integration A.0

SSP Concept Definition Studies B.12 Spring 2000

Systems Analysis & Systems Modeling Integration Studies B.12

B.13

B.9 & B.10

Independent Economic & Market Analysis (Space Markets)

AIAA Review Environmental & Safety Factors Studies SPS Market Studies Space Transportation & Infrastructure Studies

Space Mission Applications Studies B.13 JMANKINS_page 26

SSP Exploratory Research & Technology

Senior Management Oversight Committee • In order to better assure program quality and focus, a SSP Senior Management Oversight Committee (SMOC) has been formed to provide constructive criticism and guidance for the SERT Program. • The Committee comprises senior managers from a variety of the organizations involved in the implementation of the SERT, as well as selected others • The committee reviews planning and work-in progress and will provide constructive criticism and strategic guidance for the study. – It is not the charter of the SMOC to conduct a "Red Team" review of SSP activities, but rather to help assure that the product of the ongoing efforts are the best possible for the Agency.

• The SSP SMOC is planned to meet three times during the FY’99FY’00 SERT Program – August 5 (Done; at JPL) – January 20 (Done; at MSFC) – TBD -- at the end of the effort (Fall 2000; at HQ).

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 27

Space Solar Power Strategic R&T Investment Strategy

SPACE SOLAR POWER (LEVEL A)

DESCRIPTION • Strategic technology research and development to enable large, multi-megatt space solar power (SSP) systems and wireless power transmission for government missions and commercial markets (in-space and terrestrial).

APPROACH • A diverse portfolio of R&D investments, guided by systems studies, including long-term, high-risk technology research and focused demonstrations focused on enabling interim applications of SSP technology. • Extensive leverage of related R&D programs, US & international

PARTICIPANTS • NASA Centers, DOE, Other Agencies, FFRDC’c, Industry, Universities, International Space Agencies

MAJOR MILESTONES

TECHNOLOGY ELEMENTS

1999- Complete initial proof-of-concept demos of concept-enabling 2001 technologies 2001 Identify/refine top 2-3 systems concepts/architectures and complete detailed roadmap for High Fidelity Demonstrations 2002 Establish/Integrate SSP testbeds at participating organizations 2003 Begin coordinated series of integrated ground & flight demos 2004 Smart Deployable Mechanisms Testing 2004 50 M class structures & controls flight experiment -- solar array, AR&D, distributed control 2004 10 KW Electric Propulsion (30% Eff.)/Generation Flight Test 2006 100KW Space to Ground & Space to Space SPG/WPT Demo 2008 50 kW Solar Electric Propulsion/Generation Flight Test 2010 1 MW Class Space to Space SPG/WPT Demo 2015 10 MW CLASS INTEGRATED SSP SYSTEM FLIGHT DEMO

• Solar Power Generation • Wireless Power Transmission • Power Management and Distribution • Structures, Materials & Controls • Thermal Management & Materials • Robotic Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing • Platform Systems

Spring 2000

• Ground Power Systems • ETO Transport & Infrastructure • In-Space Transport & Infrastructure • Environmental & Safety Factors • Systems Integration • Applications Studies • Independent Economic & Market Analysis Studies JMANKINS_page 28

Space Solar Power

Strategic Research & Technology Approach SSP Platform Systems @ ~ 300-350 / kg

• ~ 1kV PV arrays • > 35% Efficiency PV • Intelligent Modular Systems • Thin-Film Deployables

SunTower

• High-Voltage PMAD • HTS Power Cables

• High-Efficiency Solar Electric Propulsion • High Ops Perf. Margins • Highly Reusable Vehicles

• High-Efficiency Components • High-Temp./Thermal Mgt • High-Efficiency Rectenna • Fail-Safe Beam Control • Autonomous Operations • Robust / Learning Machines • Low Cost “100 MW-Hr” Energy Storage

Other Alternatives (e.g., HALO)

• Low-Mass Phased Array Sub-Arrays

Integrated Symmetrical Concentrator

• Robotic/Self-Assembly • Auto. Rendezvous/Dock • Low-Cost Phase Shifters • Highly Modular Systems

Spring

In-Space Transport @ ≤ $400 / kg ETO Transport @ ≤ $400 / kg Ground Assembly Personnel @ ≤ 1 / MW

System Concepts

Space Solar Power Systems Installation @ < 2.5 ¢ / kW-hr

WPT Transmitter/Array @ < $1,500-$1,700 / kW WPT Transmitter Array @ < 2-2.5 kg/ kW End-to-End WPT Efficiency @ > 30-40%

End-to-End Wireless Power Transmission @ < 1 ¢ / kW-hr

Enable large-scale commerciallyviable solar power in space for terrestrial and space markets

SSP Baseload Power @ less than 5¢/kW-hr

RF Rectenna Construction @ < $1.5 / W Delivered Ground Ops Personnel @ ≤ 1 / MW Ground Energy Storage @ < $ 20 / kW-hr Overall System Lifetime 40 Years

• Debris-Impact Tolerance. • ≤ 10% H/W Refurb/10 years

Technology Challenges 2000

~ 1-2 MW PV Solar Arrays @ < 2-3 kg / kW

SPS Power Systems @ < 1 ¢ / kW-hr

~ 1-2 MW Solar Array @ < ~ $1,000-$1,500 / kW

RF Reflector/ Abacus Sats

• Mass Producible Elements • Highly Modular Systems

SSP Platform Systems @ < 4-6 kg / kW

Goal:

Performance/Cost Objectives

Recurring Ops & Maintenance Cost @ < 0.5 ¢ / kW-hr

Major System/Function Cost Goals

Architecture Cost Goal JMANKINS_page 29

Space Solar Power Strategic R&T Investment Strategy

Level A Technology Schedule/Milestone Roadmap < 2000

2001-2005

2006-2010

2011-2015

2016-2020

FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Studies & Proof-ofConcept Technology Research (TRL 2-4)

Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5)

Technology Testbeds

SSP Concept definition complete

Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments

Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW

High Power SEPS For Science Probes

Large structures for large apertures & solar sails 50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control)

Technology Demos (TRL 6-7)

LEGEND Spring 2000

Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP

Ground Test very large deployable structures High Efficiency Arrays for S/C

Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6)

Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems

Component-Level Flight Experiments

R&D Decision Point

High-Power GEO CommSats

Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP

MSC 3

Lunar Power, Large SEPS

10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7)

MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo

MSC 2

10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo Major R&D Pgm Milestone

1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT)

Strategic R&T Road Map Objective

MSC 4+ (2020+)

SSP Model System Concept(s) JMANKINS_page 30

Space Solar Power Exploratory Research and Technology

Systems Integration, Analysis and Modeling

• Systems integration, concept analysis and modeling have been organized according to 6 “model system categories” (MSCs) –

MSC 1

~ 100 kW

Free-flyer; WPT, SPG and SEPS; demo-scale; commercial space option

–

MSC 2

~ 100 kW

Planetary Surface System; demo-scale; space exploration option

–

MSC 3

~ 10 MW

Free-flyer; WPT, SPG and PMAD, SEPS; Large demo

–

MSC 4

~ 1 GW

Free-flyer; Full-scale solar power satellite; commercial space option

–

MSC 5

~ 10-100 GW

Operational Interstellar Power Station

–

MSC 6

~ TBD

“Other Concepts”

• MSC 1, 3, and 4 will be examined in more detail by most of the team, with specific “Point-of-Departure” (POD) system concept(s) identified for each –

These may also be explored via alternatives to the PODs by various teams

• MSC 2 & 5 will be examined by specific Applications/Demonstration teams/projects on a case-by-case basis • MSC 6 will be examined by various teams/projects on a case-by-case basis • Results will be coordinated/integrated by the Systems Team – and modeled systematically Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 31

SSP Exploratory Research and Technology

Other, Non-SERT SSP-Related Activities • USA – –

Relevant R&T in NASA (CETDP), Other Agencies (DOE/PV R&D), etc. SUNSAT Energy Council (an NGO) SSP applications case studies

• Europe / European Space Agency – –

Study activities under the General Studies Programme (GSP) relating to Space Exploration and Utilization (SEU), including consideration of solar power from space France/CNES •

–

La Reunion Island wireless power transmission (WPT) demonstration program; SSP-related applications studies (e.g., ISTC 1172) – led by Centre Nationale E’studies de Space (CNES)

Germany •

SSP/HEDS-Type System and Infrastructure Modeling (H. Koelle)

• Japan –

Various studies/assessments by Space Commission, MITI, NASDA, Universities, etc.

• Canada/CSA –

“Canadian Space Power Initiative” (modestly funded Study activities)

• International Astronautical Federation / Power Committee –

Annual Symposia and Workshops

• Russia –

RF WPT investigations – at Keldysh; related research and technology (R&T) – at Moscow State University; SSP-related applications studies (e.g., ISTC 1172) – led by Keldysh, at various locations; various studies – through the Russian Academy of Sciences

• International – – – Spring 2000

UNISPACE-III workshop on solar power from space International Telecommunications Union (ITU) / WP1A WPT Question UNESCO / World Solar Program JMANKINS_page 32

An Overview of SERT

Contents

• Background • Context • The SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program Selected Issues and Factors • Conclusions

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 33

Complex Network of SSP Concept Characteristics Power Level

Marketplace Demand Marketplace Flexibility Spectrum Management Requirements Beam Energy Density Constraints

Beam Steering

Orbital Distance

Transmission Frequency

Operations & Maintenance Cost ($/Energy)

Installation Cost ($/Mass)

End-to-End Efficiency (In/Out)

SPS Systems Size (Mass/Power)

Spring 2000

Space/Radiation Environment

Hardware “Module” Size (Mass/Launch)

Hardware Cost ($/Mass)

Delivered Energy Price ($/Energy)

Power Generation Cost ($/Power)

SPS Systems Specific Masses (Mass/Power) JMANKINS_page 34

1998 CDS Concept Example: GEO SPS — SunTower • System Concept – Modular systems; self-assembling at high GEO – Gravity-gradient / GN&C stabilized – Aggressive technology for solar arrays, integrated propulsion, others – RF phased array for Wireless Power Transmission »

+ 5 degrees Beam Steering

• Architecture – Geostationary Earth orbit – + 40 degrees Latitude Coverage – Power services of ~ 1200 MW (example) – Requires low-level terrestrial energy storage – ~30 SPS yields power to >30 sites, etc. – Power for Emerging Markets: South & Central America, Africa, Asia, India... • Transportation – Deployment using Commercial Launch Services (RLV-class @ $400/kg) – In-space using advanced SEPS (expendable or reusable options) Spring 2000

to SUN JMANKINS_page 35

1998 SSP CONCEPT DEFINTION STUDY

Concept Mass & Cost Summary Comparison

Concept/Configuration

No. No.

Solar

Sats Sites

Conv

Mass (MT)

Recurring Cost ($M)

Launched Orbited Space 26458

20063

40 Yr Performance*

Groun d

Trans port

Ops/M aint

kWh/Day

kWh Tot

$/kWh

4771

10583

2073

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

0.0774

GEO Sun Tower - 1.2 GW

1

1

Thin Film

GEO Sun Tower - 3 x 400 MW

3

1

Thin Film

GEO ST Dual Backbone - 1.2 GW

1

1

Thin Film

24100

18273

13945

4771

9640

2073

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

0.0734

GEO Rigid Array (1 Wing) - 1.2 GW

1

1

Thin Film

18138

13754

9538

4771

7255

2073

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

0.0570

GEO Rigid Array (2 Wing) - 1.2 GW

1

1

Thin Film

18088

13714

9524

4771

7235

2073

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

0.0569

GEO ST Sub Array - 1.2 GW

1

1

Thin Film

21625

16398

12205

4771

8650

2073

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

0.0668

GEO ST Rigid Sub Array - 1.2 GW

1

1

Thin Film

19455

14751

10407

4771

7782

2073

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

0.0604

GEO ST Rigid Sub Array - 2.4 GW

1

1

Thin Film

39964

30305

20176

4444

15986

4146

5.68E+07

8.291E+11

0.0540

MEO ST 12,000 km, 30 deg, 400 MW

8

8

Thin Film

98720

81720

54624

12856

39488

5308

7.27E+07

1.062E+12

0.1058

MEO ST 12,000 km, 0 deg, 400 MW

6

6

Thin Film

74047

61293

41332

9648

29619

3619

4.96E+07

7.237E+11

0.1164

LEO-SS ST 1,800 km, 400 MW

25

400

Thin Film

186950

186950 115975 218400

74780

19225

2.63E+08

3.845E+12

0.1114

LEO-SS ST 1,800 km, 100 MW

25

400

Thin Film

54100

4806

6.58E+07

9.613E+11

0.1381

Req'd GEO Sun Tower - 1.2 GW

1

1

Quant Dot

27657

16946

20973

54100 12847

14649 14877

6250

11063

33150

73200

21640

9240

1774

6778

2073

2073

2.84E+07

2.84E+07

4.146E+11

4.146E+11

0.0826

0.0479

* 40 Year Performance does not include cost of replacements or spares

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 36

1998 SSP CONCEPT DEFINITION STUDY

Concept Cost/kWh Summary Assessment

9 During 1998, a wide range of

variations to the SunTower concept have been considered, including extensive subsystem technology assessment and concept definition

In general, various SSP system concepts appear capable of delivering power to terrestrial markets at costs in the range of 6¢- 12¢ / kWh; 2-3 GEO SSP concepts are in the range of 5¢ - 6¢ / kWh

?

9 Many other concepts and

options remain to be studied, however, and additional fidelity is needed in the definition and modeling of all concepts that appear competitive

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 37

1998 CDS Economics & Market Assessment

General Findings

• The global demand for energy (especially electricity) will continue to grow dramatically through the next 20-30 years • It is not clear at this time what global climate change policy decisions will be – nor the impact of such decisions on costs/benefits of renewable versus carbon-fueled baseload power options • Significant SSP technology uncertainty currently exists • Therefore, space solar power system development will not be commercially viable in the near- or mid- term • Government must take the lead role in SSP (or any other long-term) energy technology R&D • Partnerships between government and industry are possible, if not likely, for interim R&D objectives • To be viable in the far-term (2020 and later), SSP should be capable of providing power at a cost of no more than about 5.5¢ - 7.5¢ per kWh for global markets Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 38

1998 SSP CDS

Concept Economics Trade Space Below this Investment a System Probably Cannot be Developed

Below this Cost Venture Capital Could Consider

3.00

0.30

0.03

Cost of Electricity ($/kw-hr)

Price of Electricity ($/kw-hr)

A Key Question: Where Will SERT Results Fall in the Trade Space?

Below this Cost Major Industryled Partnerships Could Consider

Above this Cost ONLY GOVT could Afford

NonNonViable Regime

1.00

Viable Regime

0.10

Above this Cost NO System WOULD be Built

Regime of Highest Commercial Potential

LessViable Program because Direct Government Funding of System Deployment is Highly Unlikely

0.01

Spring 2000

Above this Price NO system is viable Economically

In this Range NICHE MARKETS might be viable Below this Price GLOBAL MARKET and Niche US markets would be viable Economically Prices Below this level are Probably NOT Technically Achievable

NonNonViable Regime 1998 SSP Concept Definition Study Concepts

The 1979 SPS Reference System

0.2

2.0

20

200

Total Cost to Achieve Initial Operational Capability ($,B)

“Fresh Look” Study Space Solar Power Concepts

JMANKINS_page 39

An Overview of SERT

Contents

• Background • Context • The SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) Program • Selected Issues and Factors Conclusions

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 40

SSP Exploratory Research and Technology

Deliverables

• Refinement of advanced space solar power systems concepts with technical and programmatic risks identified – For a wide range of space and terrestrial applications

• Technology research results and demonstrations • Technology Road Maps – Space Solar Power systems, SSP-compatible transportation systems, Space science and exploration applications

• Independent assessments for SSP SERT efforts – Including an independent economic analysis, a review of technology by the National Research Council, etc.

• Notional scenarios for future SSP-related research and technology investments – Including identification of ongoing R&T activities that are supportive of SSP technology road map needs

Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 41

SSP Exploratory Research and Technology

Schedule of Major Milestones • • • • • • • • • • •

Milestone Date(s) FY’99 Funding Released February FY’99 Begin SSP Exploratory Research & Technology Program March Finalize SERT Program Detailed Implementation Plan; March Initiate “In-House” R&T Tasks Release SERT ‘99 NASA Research Announcement March – Week 4 SERT ‘99 NRA Proposals Due April – Week 4 Announce ‘99 NRA Projects; June – Week 1 Analyze/Model SSP Concepts, Technologies and Space June’99-Jan. ’00 Applications FY’00 Funding Released February FY’00 Announce Additional ‘99 NRA Projects February’00 Refine/Conduct Sensitivity Studies of SSP Concepts Feb. ‘00 - June ’00 and Space Applications SERT Technical Meetings – Technical Working Group Coordination Meetings – SERT-Wide Technical Interchange Meeting #1 – Technical Interchange Meeting #2

– Technical Interchange Meeting #3 • Complete R&T, Technical Studies, etc. • Complete SERT Final Report Spring 2000

May ‘99 - August ‘00 July ‘99 December ‘99

June ‘00 July-October November FY’01 JMANKINS_page 42

SSP Exploratory Research and Technology

Summary

• SSP Concept Definition Study completed in FY 1998 (~$2M) – Defined preliminary SSP strategic research and technology road maps

• SSP Exploratory R&T Program initiated in FY 1999 (~$15M) • SERT Program was augmented / extended with FY 2000 appropriated funding (~$7M available) • SERT Focused Program addressing ... – Concept Definition and Systems Analysis Studies – Research and Technology Projects – Technology Demonstrations – Applications Studies (Space and Terrestrial, Technical and Economic)

• Program is ~ on-track technically and programmatically Spring 2000

JMANKINS_page 43