A Life Cycle Model of Trans-Atlantic Employment ...

Viewer
Transcript

!""#$%

&

$ $ ' $ (% $ & ) * $ & + $

) &

&( $ & + ) , $ $

) - - .)) / $ - & $ .))

+ ) $ $ &

$ $

& & $ $ 0Æ 1

& 2334%)

! " # $ " # $ % & '

!"# $ %&' ( )# *( + !" *( ' , ' + -

!" ' , *( + ' , %&' ( ."")# + !" , + *( / 0 $ !"# 1 %&' ( .""! # ' / 2' 3 4 .""# 5 # ' & 6' %&' ( .""!# %&' ( ."")# , , ' / 7 ))# 6 )8# 5 ."".# ' 9 ' ' ' , %&' ( ) ."")# ' / ' 0 7 ))# 1 2 ' / ' / / ' %&' ( ."": ."") # - , / ; ' $ ' ' -

( )**+ , # , - # - - # -# , , # # )**. / , % # -

.

'

' ' 5 ."":# <+7 %&' ( ."":#= ' $ ' %&' ( ."") # + ' 2 ' 3 ' + 2 ' ' -

' / ' , 2 +

0 ' ' / ' & +& ' / ' + *( 5 / ' >' ,

- 0 % 1 0 % )**.2 )**3 , % , , # , 4 )**. 4 , % , % - # 4 )**.2 5 )**.2 )**3 , # 6 - ,, 7 8 )**9 ,2 - , # 2

#

5 % , 0 - ,

# , , - ,% , % ,0 : , - #

)**.2 )**3 4 )**. # , # # - , % ,

-

- , 2 , -

# ?

' $ $ - 3 @

- = 0 A

7

):#

'

2 B, )!#

/5 :!#

'

%&' ( ."":#

/ #

% 5 !C# 2' 3 4 .""#

5 7 .""8#

, *D

' /

<

#

5

#

> Æ C# Æ > 8#

2 2 B, )!# '/ ' ' ' & / ' 6 :# .""?# 0 /

> 5 ."".# 9E 3/4 ' B .""!# B 4 ."")# / C

$ ' 0 / $ / ' ( .""C# >' .""!#

F 9E ."":# .""!# / A / ( 6 )# /5 :!# / / / ' , , ' 9 %&' ( )# , - ' $ & '

D < $ # ; $ 9

/5 & 2 / '

- & $ / 2 / , / % 5 !C# 2' 3 4 .""# ; $ ' 2' 3 4 .""# / ' ' / Æ / %&' ( .""! # D 2' 3 4 .""#

1 # # # - )**; % ( , 6 Æ - #

5 / 5 - , 2 , , " )**< 5, , - - !5, =6 )*** , ,2 " )**. # , - 5, - # -

# 2 , , , 5

6

1 5 , - - - - 5, - , #

8

/ 3 ' 6 Æ D 2' 3 4 .""# ' ' ' 3 0 / ' 5 # ' 9 '' 3 2 & 6 $ ).# 3 ' $ F ' :#

' - ' /

/ /

!

9 7 ))# 6 )8# ' / / " ' / // ' ' ' - 5 ."".# ' 6 /7 / F

' & ' / - ' ' ' ' ' / / , %&' ( ."": ."") #

:

' ' " ' ; ' $ , ' / < G # 4 H" I %&' ( ."": ."") #

Æ ' ' ' ' # ' ' '

- ' ' 9 Æ ' //

0 $ ' ' ' / / ' ' - / ' ' 2 %&' ( ."": ."") # ' '

, @ F .# 5 ."":# 7 0 .""!# ' 3 ' ' *( :. :8 7 5 !##

"

#

0 J , - / - , ' ' &/ - , , ' %&' ."".# , 5/ # 2' 3 4 .""# %&' ( .""! # ' 6 7 ?# %&' ( .""!# * !

, / ' 6 , & ' - ' 2 5 7 .""8# 3 & / ( ' & K & - = & $ & 0 ' ' + < !# ' ' ' / , - ' , ' / ' '# , ' ' '# 9 '' + F :# ' +

$

%

- & + %&' ( ) ."")# D 8# %&' ( )# ' + )"

> Æ C# *( !" )" D 8# @ ' , + D %&' ( )# ' ' $ + / /

1 5 , 2 - ( ( +>>92 # ? % , )**) 5, 0 - , , 0 , ? # #

( ( +>>9 0 , ? 5 # -

# 1 # 6 - 2 0 , # - ,

)

, 2 + ' *( + *( 8" :" ' *( % ( 5$ 2 + */ ( :.# %&' ( ."")# 3 ' 2 + , * + , + / 8" :" , @ ' + / ' '

%&' ( ."")#

' - /

&

'(

0 %&' ( ."")# # / , ' , ; $ , ' ' '

- %&' ( ."") # .8 ' 0 ' / *( + - ' %/ / 6 ."")# % ."")# ' / ' D

1 , - # @ , +>>* 2 & )**3 , - 0 # - AA #

)**3 , ? - # - A* - ,, 1 -

- - ,, , ? , A* B , - # - 2 , ,, 2 - #

: : C )**;2 ;9D : )A%.< -

, / ' / ' #

)

+ %&' ( ) ."")## ' > Æ C# B 3 2 # '

- Æ > 8# ' / 2 LLLL / @ $

' '

5 )# /& /

0 ;$ / = /& & '

D ' ' 2 '' '' 2 , ' ' 2

2' 3 4 .""# , H" I

; $ 3 # - ; $ ; $ - G ,

# # Æ .# &

- 0 )**+ "

M K # ' ' M ' ' 2 , Æ # D ,

Æ 9 ' $ ;$ ?.

$ ; $ 2 N

D '' < ' & - Æ & # ' & 2 N D '' & H" I ' - $ Æ

# ' & / # G M MK # M $ ' ' , , / M ¼ # / '

0

#

#

' 6' , # K - '

- %&' ( .""! # 6'

, 5, # 2 # - 5, # - % 2 E *2 - , 5,

%&' ( .""! # ' 3 / & $ - / ; $

/ ' 3

' / - ;$ / D ;$ 3 ;$

' , ' ' 2 3 - ' $ Æ - % 5 !C# 2' 3 4 .""# ' & Æ ' ' 0 ' ' / & & & Æ D O ' ' G

- ' ' ' ¼ # 2 K - $

# G #

" #

.#

/ ' ' Æ Æ - ' 2 ' < '' ' ' ' ' - ' -

' ' ' M D '' - 3 9 ' $ Æ 3 0 ' / Æ

' - .

Æ ' - , 2 $ '' ' 3 ( $ 3 D ' 3 & ' $ 3 < N # " ' &

- '$ 9 , - P# ( Q - ' ( - ' % # %/ ! !R /

' - , ' / "

- . ? C 8 '

' ' , ' - ' 2 ' # $ # # $ / /

B - 5 2 - 0 2 # & 2 , - # , # , -

?

- .= ( 4 # $

*D Æ

'

' *D ' # $ Æ 4 $ ' # # $ $ ' 5 % & ' ' # ' '

' Æ ' 6

2 ' 6 @ '

' &

!

" #

- G # # , ' .# & M K # 3 // # G # ?# ' #

C

- ?= >' 4 P#

Q

! !R "

*D *D /

- C= 4 4

#¼ &N # # #¼ & # $ # #¼ & # # #¼ &R # # #¼ & # &N # $ #

8

- 8= 5 A

D

¼ #

Æ ¼

# ' '' N M K # M ' ' M ¼ # K M ¼ //

!

$

- ' R # # G # O &R #¼ O # &

¼

?#

O #¼ #¼

H O "(

#'I # O !R

5 R# # #R# # ' ' ' / '

!

%&

- '

&

# # G #

¼

M K #

O

M ¼ #& #¼ ¼ P ## O #

¼

O

M P ## O #& #¼

O

#

# &

:

M O #¼

&

M " O #¼

C#

O #¼ #¼

H O

#' I # O # # O ! " H" )#I (

5 # # # # # # # ' ' '/

' - '

&

# $ # G #

¼

# O

# & #¼ O # & #¼ $ ¼ O O #

O

# &

#¼ $ ¼ O O #

8#

O #¼ #¼

H O

#' I # O " H" I (

#$ O!

< $ ¼ G $ " 5 # $ # # # $ #

# $ # ' ' '

' D G " G " ' & C# 8# &R #¼ O #

!

' &

- '

/

N # # G # &

¼

O O

N # I&N #¼ P# O #

O HN O N #

# & #¼ O # & #¼ " O #

N #¼ " O # # &N #¼ O # &

!

:#

O #¼ #¼

H O "(

#'I # O

# O!

5 N # # #N # # ' ' '

' - '

&N # $ # G #

¼

* ¼

¼ #

# O #

&N #¼ ¼ O #

O* ¼ &N #¼ $ ¼ O O #

O

¼

N #¼ $ ¼ O O # &

N #¼ $ ¼ O O #

# &

!#

O #¼ #¼

H O

#' I # O " H" I

#$ O!

* # & 3 $ ¼ G $ " 5 N # $ #

# N # $ # N # $ # ' ' ' ' D G " ' & :# !# &R #¼ O #

!!

( #

- ' ' ' & # &N #

G

&N #

G #

Q

' O Æ # O

)# O'

¼ #& ¼ #(

#

¼

2 $ 3 ' ' M )

&N M# G Q(

"#

- /'

G

&N

# O'

(

#

D & ' '

!

0 3 & 6 ' 0 ' 0 , & & D ' & ' 2 3 ' = # / ' # 3 # + # - ' , ' - /F Æ - G "(?? Æ G "(": 0 ' G "("C $ 0 / / ' 0 / / & ' 7 /5 / &

% ' # J /5 # ' # 2' ' 6 ).# F ' 6 / "##

10 9

Average number of jobs held

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

age

9 = 0$ ' , *( &

( - # G M H # I), 2' 3 4 .""# - M M G ,

G ("# S # G - * 5 = *D :"T , *( : # + # 9 , . * - 9 ? * - 9 C

" # $ % D + ' ' / A / ' 6' / ' , $ ' -

."

- := 5 ' #K / / !"T 5 4 " ) "?" , " ) ") "?? Æ "": ""? N ":8 "?? P# :"T : *(#

+# " + & *(# :"T / + # Q " *(# ? / +# !R "8 // / / # :.!T ???T# *(K !)?T C!T# + "8 *(#

"?" +# "" "8

. ") / ""8"C: # "":88C # " # !!) # M K # 2 M ¼ # / ' " & # "." #

H" ( I "(! ' "" .

5

unemployment rate (%)

4.5

4

3.5

3

2.5

2 0

1 2 3 4 5 layoff cost (months of low−type worker earnings)

6

9 .= * , + & % ,

/

50 45

unemployment rate (%)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

disutility parameter B

9 ?= * + *( &

..

-

12

unemployment rate (%)

10

8

6

4

2

0 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

variance of turbulence shock

9 C= * ' / ' - + & :"T / ' - / *( 3

0.5

2.8

0.45

2.6

0.4

2.4

0.35

2.2

0.3

2

0.25

1.8

0.2

1.6

0.15

1.4

0.1

1.2

0.05

1 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

age

0 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

age

& ,

- '

9 8= 6 # ' # *( & - / / .?

16

10 9

14 8 12

7 6

10

5 8

4 3

6

2 4 1 2 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

0 20

30

40

50

60

age

age

!

- ,

70

80

90

9 := + # # *( & - / /

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

age

9 != 2 *( & - / / .C

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

0

60

25

30

35

40

age

45

50

55

60

age

1

- 1-

9 )= * - + *( & # #

0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

age

9 = * + - / / .8

100 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1

90

Human capital loss (%)

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Age

9 "= A ' / + & ; $ - ' ' ' - , ' ' ' , ; $ - # ' 3#

% 6 2

+ *( - & - - & - .) .! C8 C8) .): :!) C8" C88 .)) . C8 C8!

- != * %/ / # !"T ?"T#

.:

100 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1

90

Human capital loss (%)

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Age

90

Human capital loss (%)

80 70 60 50 40 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1

30 20 10 0 100 30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Age

90

Human capital loss (%)

80 70 60 50 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1

40 30 20 10 0 30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Age

9 = A ' / *( & 5 '

' 9 $ ' "# .!

12

11

percentage

10

9

8

7

6 0

5

10

15 20 years since the shock

25

30

9 .= + ' / / *( & / "T - ' ' ?" C" 8" :" ' ?8

.8 8 8 '

.)

' ' '

' B 3 2 # ' ' '

*( ' :)J ! B ' ' ."")#

& ' ( 9 ' ' /5 G O / # 0 ' 3 ." 0 /5 G O / # 9 " # G (. /5 K G " .G ." - . .# G "(. # G "() - / & 9 ' ' # 9

# 0 0 ' : . 0

/5 0 ' ' 0

K # 0 / G "("8"C: # "":88C # . G "() # 0 " # !!) # - H" ( "#I - ' . 0 , / , / # .8 8"

.

)* 2' 3 9 4 ."" (' 5 + 9 C!=C!!JC ) 2 2 S % S B, )! *' 5

=

2 F ' 6 > F .""? - 7 F 7 F * )=8!J."8 /5 U :! - 5 6 % + !8=?8.J?:8 > 2 D 8 0 D& * = * ( ' + D !" # $ ( S S 7 = D- 5 - 9 ): ( +& D/ 9 D % & ' 0 6 2 / ! J". 2/ = < /6 7 D 5 ) D& 2 D * ( ? .#=:"?J:C" F < ."": + 9 0 C=)?8J)!" 2 S ' FEV 3/>E3 SE/4EV 7EV/7 .""? 2

*( + 0 D& C#=))J)8! U (/ B ."": 9 D' 2 % ( = 2 W ' 2 6 2 ) # C!=J.! F ' (' S S 6 " > S F = /

+' D D !" # $

A' S ( 9 = D- 5 F ' (' S S 6 ( ( : % 2= D- 5 F S 9 B 3 ( 2 F ' - : - + D 0 + .?#=?!J?!. ?"

F F ' 9E ."": - % /( + / = 0 + # =.C.J.:. 9E 3/4 ' SE F B .""! ' % = 9 + (' F # * ) =88.J8:8 > 5 7 Æ C - > + D *( % " + $ .#=.!J.!. > 5/A' S 2 5 ."". ' % !"=C!J) >' 9 .""! % U + = 2 % D ( 7 4 51 $ # !=:)!J!. 6 S /A' 9 % - ( ."") F 7/ A 0$ + = - F 7 2 6 7 + ). - D % S *( + # !.=!:J!.C 6 > F )8 D' % :=?" J?.!

$

6 S S % % - ) + 7 0 D& = + F > +& % + 6 2 # #=J8) 6 6 7 7 ? S -' 5 +' = 2 > +& 2 "= 8J ?) 6 : 0 F %/ + ?)=C: JC C

B ' > D ' ."") 7 A

D / * ( = :)J ! ) # C =CJ! B > >' % 4 ."") 6 D 1 < U *' B 3 % 9 F ' 6 2 0 ( + D& D & + , ' ?2 A 2 F ' 2 = +' %&' % ."". 6 F % , 2, + 1 .=). J)8? ?

%&' % - S ( ) - + * F ":=8CJ88" XXX ."": F - + + * 1 D' % 6 % ( ' D !" # $ F 2 B 7, 0 = D- 5 XXX .""! * + * 7 ' 9 8C=.)"J.."C XXX .""! * + * ( /D 8C=.? J.! XXX ."") - = 4 D 88= )J.8 XXX ."") - W + *

!:=J.

% 6 % 5 ."") 0 7 + 7 ' % )-$ * < ?!"" D ( % % 7 + S + 5 !C +& ( * ( !=))J." 2 9 A/6 5 0 .""! D

8C )#=.:.J.:?8 S S !" + D S ( )C #=?J.:

( 5 F - ! - * 0 +, % 5 = 2 *(2 *B D . / ' 0 , + F ( > F *B= *' 5 Æ 7 2 5 > 8 - ' ( + / *(= : / )! * S 6 *' F - 2 5 * 7 ;(/ $ - ( = - 7 % 5 " =.C.J .:8 ."" 2 D D' % #

?.

$ 1

< F .""C 0 D& D % * !=!C?J!:) < F - S U !=.?!J.:

#

,

< ( ! * % 7= + ' < 2 =88J!C 5 + ."". 5 F

$ # .=J8

XXX ."": D !" # $ F 2

B 7, 0 = D- 5 5 + 7 7 S 0 ."": 2 % ( = 2 ( 5 - D 23 ( *' 5$ 2 + * ( :. 1 . 0 F= *( >' 5 AÆ 5 7 7 .""8 6 5 % D % 9 ?=)J)? W 4 3 .""" + ( ' ( ?=JC"

# 1

7 7 )) D' % % +& .=?J: 7 7 S 0 .""! + % 0 - 0 5 ?"! < + 7 7 S 5 ! 6 ( ( 2, 7/ ' D 0 D :8 C#=!)J)? ( B D - 2 U .""C 7 ( ' % 8=:" J:??

??

Persistence of Employment Fluctuations: A Model of ...

Hours and Employment Over the Business Cycle: A ... - Giuseppe Fiori

A benchmark for life cycle air emissions and life cycle ...

An Empirical Model of Life-Cycle Earnings and Mobility ...

Precautionary Money Demand in a Business-Cycle Model

Employment Duration and Match Quality over the Business Cycle

Self-Employment and Business Cycle Persistence

Indoor environmental quality in a dynamic life cycle ...

Optimal Redistribution: A Life&Cycle Perspective