1. The drought in South Africa South Africa is currently suffering a prolonged dry spell, with very low rainfall and scorching temperatures, across the country. In some parts of the South Africa, this dry spell is entering its fourth consecutive year. The South African Weather Service defines “drought” on the basis of the degree of dryness experienced, in comparison to the normal amount of rainfall for a particular area or place during a particular period. Less than 75% of normal rainfall is regarded as a severe meteorological drought while a shortfall of 80% of normal rainfall will cause crop and water shortages - this is the situation that is currently being experienced. A meteorological drought is often followed by an agricultural drought, when there is insufficient soil moisture to meet crop needs, and then by a hydrological drought, when surface and sub-surface water supplies start drying up. South Africa has moved beyond the normal drought phases and has entered a fourth phase, the socio-economic drought phase, which occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply caused by a meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought. The drought that we are currently experiencing is the worst drought in almost a quarter of a century. According to forecasts by the South African weather service, it is highly likely that the country will continue to experience consistently dry and hot conditions into the late-summer season. These drier and warmer conditions are expected to be extreme during late summer through early autumn. Even though the country is expected to be generally dry and warm, it is important to take note that extreme rainfall events may still occur, as is the norm for the summer season. This persisting extreme dry and warm conditions for the summer season may worsen the current drought conditions which the country is already experiencing. The graph below compares provincial dam levels between 2014 and 2015, indicating that a marked drop had been experienced from 2014 to 2015.
Provincial Dam Levels (%) 120
101
Percentage
100 80 60
7773
86 57
90 79
73 53
72
65
49
62
91 69 43
40 20 0
2015
93
2016
63
72 53
82 57
Rainfall has also been consistently below average. The graph below illustrates the rainfall for October 2015, one of the most critical months in the agricultural year.
Although some of the northern parts of the country received rains recently it is a classic example of “too little, too late”. In comparison to December 2013, the 2015 rainfall was substantially less.
2. Oversight visits conducted by the DA The DA conducted oversight visits in our country’s drought-stricken provinces at the end of 2015, covering more than 4 000 kilometres and speaking to many affected people. The findings were both heart-breaking and shocking. 2.1
Kwa-Zulu Natal Mooi River At Mooi River in November, dams had dried up and streams were starting to run dangerously low. Farmers have been forced to sell livestock to conserve grazing, and dig into stream beds in search of pools of water. Many animals are suffering, and one emerging farmer had lost a quarter of his small flock to malnutrition and thirst. He had received no assistance from the government and no advice on how to cope with the drought. Mthubathuba Human suffering has driven many local community members to pay bribes to have water delivered to them, while others have had to risk crossing the very busy N2 highway to collect buckets of water across the road, where a broken municipal water pipe has been spilling water for months. Hluhluwe
Local farmers have lost an estimated 60% of their cattle to mal-nutrition and thirst. Tree plantations and sugar cane fields are dying, and goats and other animals wander the road in search of something green to eat. The community members have to walk long distances in scorching temperatures to collect water, pay bribes to have water delivered, or wait for the water tankers that arrive once every three weeks. They have received little to no assistance from government, whose sole contribution so far had been to hand out assessment forms, and the local agriculture officer denies that they are experiencing a crisis. 2.2
Northern Cape Calvinia Farmers had reduced stock by up to 80% and are now making use of a rotational grazing system where they moved animals between winter and summer veld. Feed has to be bought.
2.3
Western Cape Clanwilliam Rooibos harvests in this area, the only area to produce rooibos, is set to show a huge decline.
2.4
North West Province Setlagole Boreholes have started drying up and animals are scrounging for food by the roadsides. Many farmers are in serious debt. Tosca, Ghaapse and Vryburg Farmers have had to decrease their herds to buy feed for the remaining cattle, and many are in serious debt.
2.5
Eastern Cape Venterstad, Burgersdorp, Aliwal North, and Jamestown Farmers have had to sell their livestock on a large scale in order to afford feed for the remaining herds. Losses have been compounded by veld fires, which burned down large grazing areas.
2.6
Free State Hoopstad and Bothaville
In the maize producing heart of the country, less than 3% of the maize had been planted, and the planting season has now passed. This means that the least number of hectares have been planted in the area since 1926. Dam levels in the San/Vet River irrigation scheme are running dangerously low. Farmers in this area will have to survive the year without any income, and are thus in desperate need of government support.
3. The impact of the drought During drought years farmers have to use their own reserves or capital to utilize and leverage extra borrowing capacity for farming business in order to continue to absorb the losses of the current and previous year. More importantly, during a drought capital reserves become depleted, and this creates the scenario where credit is used to finance production cost for the coming production year. In many districts, farmers have had to survive on credit for up to two years now, and financial institutions will no longer be able to lend them any money. The agricultural sector is already highly indebted, with the total debt averaging about R 117 billion in November 2015, an increase of about 14% from the previous year. At the same time, the quarterly value of the agricultural sector in the third quarter of 2015 went down by 12.6%. Stats SA values agriculture’s direct contribution to GDP at between 3 and 4% per year – however, various studies have shown that the indirect effect of agriculture (taking into account forward and backward linkages) is closer to 25%. (According to the government’s own website, the agriculture sector makes an overall total contribution to the national GDP of about 12%.) The economic crisis faced by the agricultural sector will thus have serious knock-on effects:
3.1
Employment
According to the government, the agricultural sector provides about 7% of the formal employment opportunities in South Africa. When farming enterprises suffer financial hardships, job losses are inevitable, especially if farmers are forced to sell their farms, as has happened in previous droughts. During the 1991-92 drought, the last time the country experienced a drought this severe, a government white paper on disaster management found that 49 000 agricultural jobs and 20 000 non-agricultural jobs were lost. According to Stats SA, the agricultural sector employed about 891 000 people in the first quarter of 2015. An important feature of the industry is that it creates employment in rural, deep rural and jobstarved regions where there is often little other economic opportunity. The social and economic devastation that large-scale job losses in these areas are likely to cause can hardly be imagined. Job losses in the agricultural sector could also have a knock-on effect in other sectors in the form of the indirect employment it generates. Take for example the sugar cane industry. According to the South African Sugar Association (SASA), direct employment in this industry occurs in both the sugar cane field and the sugar mills, and cuts across a diverse array of skills from farm labourer to agricultural scientist. There is also direct and indirect employment through numerous support
industries in provinces where sugarcane is grown and processed. The sugar industry creates approximately 79 000 direct jobs, which represents over 11% of the total agricultural workforce in South Africa. In addition there are the registered cane growers supplying cane for processing to sugar mills. Indirect employment is estimated at 350 000 jobs. Approximately one million people or 2% of South Africa’s population depends on the sugar industry for a living. In a country that is already suffering from the effects of high unemployment rates, job losses in the agricultural sector is evidently not a desirable outcome.
3.2
Food Security
The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as existing “when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life”. In South Africa, about 14.1 million (26%) are predisposed to hunger and malnutrition, and therefore do not have enough food to eat. It is of great concern that this figure is steadily increasing: from 12 million in 2011 to 13.6 million in 2012 and 13.8 million in 2013. This while hunger in the SADC region as a whole declined by 30% between 1990 and 2015. According to a study done by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), the cost of an affordable healthy eating plan for a family of four (2 adults and 2 children) increased by 36% from January 2011 to April 2015. Rising food prices, particularly of maize and wheat, which are the staple diet of the poor in South Africa, pose serious problems for the urban and rural poor. The drought will put pressure on food prices, with hikes likely to be seen in everything from maize and grains to meat, poultry and dairy products. There usually is a lag of about three to four months before increases in prices are seen on retail shelves for foods such as mealie meal and cereals. For items such as meat and dairy, it would take about nine months. But rising prices have already been seen in some foods as early as April and May 2015, with consumer price inflation for items such as bread and cereals increasing by 4.8% year on year. According to some economists, food prices could increase by up to 10% in 2016 – more than double the inflation rate. Of growing concern is the 2015/16 crop. The optimal planting window for summer crops has now passed, although some crops like sunflower and soybeans could still be planted. This will result in more farmers having no choice but to give up, and this will also have disastrous ramifications for food security and jobs within the sector. Some farmers are predicting that South Africa could lose up to 50% of its farmers because they will not be able to get a production loan to plant the next season or be able to pay back loans and make a living. Grain SA said that South Africa imported about 750 000 tonnes of maize to meet the country’s needs. The 2015/16 season will see this increased to 5 million tons of maize. It is expected that we will also have to import about 10 million tons of grain, rice and soya into the country. This would put a heavy burden on our harbour and transport infrastructure while the decline in the Rand over December will increase the cost of this exercise greatly.
In order to addresses challenges regarding importation of grains into the country, the DA would propose the urgently re-consideration of current GMO regulations on genetically modified organisms (GMOs), which requires a strict case-by-case assessment of every GMO crop entering into or produced in South Africa. This is to allow a greater variety of imported food stuffs sourcing options, to relieve hunger and to act as fodder for cattle. The large-scale growing of crops that
have been genetically modified to withstand drier conditions should also be a long-term strategy that Parliament needs to take under consideration.
3.3
Financial Stability
Although consumers would feel the inflationary effects of the weak currency, the effect will be far worse for producers such as farmers. The weaker oil price has helped farmers, with fuel making up 11% of the total variable costs of grain production, but other input costs are being affected by the weak currency. About 70% of all fertilisers and about 98% of agrichemicals have to be imported. South Africa supplies about 70% of our neighbouring countries’ maize imports. Despite our domestic shortfall, South Africa has committed to export 630,000 tonnes of maize to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. South Africa may soon be faced with the choice of allowing our own people to starve or defaulting on our agreements.
3.4
Health Risks
As drought drives crop failure, there will be a dramatic increase in malnutrition. This has direct effects (e.g. marasmus and kwashiorkor in children) as well as an indirect effect in terms of increased susceptibility to disease, especially for immune-compromised patients (e.g. people living with HIV/AIDS). A direct effect of the drought on health would be dehydration. This becomes particularly dangerous in patients with gastro-intestinal diseases, for example children with diarrhoea – diarrhoea is the main cause of death in children under the age of five. There may also be a greater risk of waterborne diseases (e.g. cholera) because a decrease in water volume increases the concentration of microbial organisms in water bodies. 3.5
Infrastructure Strain
According to research by Prof Johan Willemse, grain imports will increase substantially from an already high 4.1 million tons to a conservative estimate of 5,67 million tons during 2016. Harbour and rail/road logistics will be under severe pressure and there are doubts that South Africa will be able to move such a near record quantity of grain inland, given our weak railway system and poor road logistics. This could cause bottlenecks in supplies and product shortages from time to time.
4. Government Response According to the 2014/2015 annual report of the National Disaster Management Centre, the intergovernmental committee on disaster management has not been functioning, and still needs to be formally established with a Presidential Minute. This committee was supposed to have been established years ago already, when the National Disaster Management Act was first made law in 2002-2003.
An inter-ministerial Committee on Drought Mitigation led by then-Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Pravin Gordhan was established, finally, during 2015. The Committee includes the ministers of Rural Development and Land Reform, Water and Sanitation, as well as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. To date, however, the committee had not been very active. Several provinces have been declared disaster areas, but the President has so far failed to declare the crisis a national disaster, despite the fact that the DA posed questions to him about this at a parliamentary session in November 2015 already. Government relief in provinces like Limpopo and Kwa-Zulu Natal had often been pre-conditional upon the farmers first making certain purchases of farming implements or necessities from approved vendors – as is stated in the 2015/2016 Draft Drought Intervention document published by the Kwa Zulu Natal government on 21 November 2015. This document also places the onus of transporting relief on the farmers themselves. On Tuesday, 3 November, Government urged South African cattle, sheep and goat farmers to cut the size of their herds because of the drought which has scorched grazing land. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries noted that, “Livestock must continually be kept in line with the veld’s carrying capacity.” Minister Zokwana made available R226 million to buy feed for small scale farmers. However, this is nowhere near enough to deal with the crisis and farmers, both commercial and subsistence, are urgently in need of financial assistance. The table below highlights the requests for drought relief that have been received by the various provinces from livestock farmers who filled in drought relief forms: PROVINCE
FODDER
LIVESTOCK WATER
ACTUAL PROVINCIAL CONTRIBUTION
NUMBER OF LIVESTOCK AFFECTED
Free State
R77,89 million
R24,662 million
R10 million
109 245
Kwa-Zulu Natal
R142 million
R800 million
R24 million
2,7 million
Limpopo
R20 million
R31 million
R3 million
51 560
Mpumalanga
R50 million
R21 million
R1,8 million
114 400
North West
R2,9 billion
R179,425 million
0
481 187
Northern Cape
-
-
R7,6 million
-
Response has for the most part been in bits and pieces, on provincial and local levels, and varying from one district to the next. This is no longer a feasible means of dealing with the crisis.
5. The DA’s Proposal The DA has already put together its own inter-portfolio and multi-disciplinary Drought Task Team, which includes members of the DA’s shadow cabinet in the portfolios of Health, Social Development, Trade & Industry, Water & Sanitation, Small Businesses and Agriculture. The DA thus:
1. In accordance with the National Disaster Management Act (NDMA), calls for declaration of a national disaster. 2. Implement the provisions made in the amended NDMA by calling on the South African National Defence Force, South African Police Service and any other organ of state to assist the disaster management structures. 3. Urge the Speaker of the National Assembly to give heed our letter submitted to her requesting the establish an ad hoc committee to deal with the drought. 4. The committee will urgently need to be briefed by the inter-ministerial (IMC) task team specifically charged to deal with drought alleviation. As elected public representatives, the National Assembly needs to be appraised of the progress the IMC has made in assessing the effects on the drought particularly on the livelihoods of so many South Africans. 5. A national task team comprising of private sector, experts and government must be established to coordinate a disaster alleviation plan.
