The Colorado Outlook Economic and Fiscal Review, June 2017 The following information is excerpted from the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting’s June 2017 forecast. To access the full forecast document, click on the image above or follow this link: https://goo.gl/G6jYke

The Economy Economic growth has accelerated in the first half of 2017, and the expansion is expected to continue. Colorado’s technology-related sectors remain robust and continue to fuel much of the state’s growth, while formation of new business entities has rebounded. Although Colorado has the lowest unemployment rate in the nation, tight labor market and housing market conditions are constraining the state’s economic expansion. Rural areas continue to experience lower job and income growth than along the Front Range. Average of ISM Composite Indices

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Composite Index and NonManufacturing Composite Index report the momentum of economic activity as assessed by businesses across the country and in most industries. The May indices show that both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors continue to expand.

60 55 50

Overall economic activity for the U.S. is expanding at its strongest rate since the end of 2014.

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Jan-17

Jan-16

Jan-15

4.0

Philadelphia Fed Economic Activity Indices

3.0

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly State Coincident Economic Activity Index is indicating modestly higher growth for Colorado’s economy in recent months, while the Leading Index for Colorado shows economic growth is likely to accelerate in the near-term.

2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0

Indices show slightly stronger economic growth since the middle of last year, with increased momentum of late.

-2.0

8.2%

6.9%

4.5%

5%

0.6% 0% -0.4%

-1.7% -5% -10%

Filings for new entities, such as LLC's and corporations, are experiencing renewed momentum, a positive sign for future economic growth.

-9.0%

-15% 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017Q1

Source: Colorado Secretary of State

Mar-17

Oct-16

May-16

Dec-15

Jul-15

Feb-15

Sep-14

Apr-14

Nov-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Aug-12

Mar-12

Job Supply/Demand Rate, April 2017

1.4

Colorado’s year-over-year job growth was 1.8 percent in April, down from 2.5 percent a year ago. This slowing is at least partially due to the lack of available workers, as the state had only 0.5 unemployed people per online job posting in April, the lowest rate in the country.

Oct-11

Filings of new entities formed to do business in the state, which mostly consist of limited liability companies and corporations, increased by 2,750, or 9.5 percent, in the first quarter of 2017 compared with the year prior. This higher level of new business activity will help support continued economic growth. New entity filings slowed in 2015 and the first part of 2016, contributing to the slowdown in the economy.

9.5% 7.0%

May-11

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

13.8%

10%

Apr-09

Coincident Economic Activity Index for Colorado, July 1992=100, Six-Month % Change, Seasonally Adjusted Leading Index for Colorado Three Months Ahead, Seasonally Adjusted (3-month Moving Average)

Annual Growth in New Business Filings

15%

Nov-08

Jan-08

Jun-08

-3.0

Jul-10

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-11

*Readings above 50 indicate expanding economic activity.

35

Dec-10

40

Feb-10

45

Sep-09

65

Five of Colorado’s seven metro areas had more online job postings than unemployed people in April.

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

0.8 0.8

0.7 0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.2 0.0 Boulder

3.5%

Annual Job Growth, April 2017

3.2%

Denver- Fort Collins- Colorado Aurora Loveland Springs

2.5%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1% 1.5%

1.4%

1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Boulder -0.5%

Fort CollinsLoveland

Denver

Greeley

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Pueblo

Statewide

Among Colorado metro areas, Boulder has experienced the most job growth over the last twelve months, at 3.2 percent, followed by Fort Collins, Denver, and Greeley, all at 2.1 percent job growth. Grand Junction was the only metro area to lose jobs over the last twelve months.

1.8%

2.0% 1.5%

Grand Junction

Source: The Conference Board, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Most metro areas saw job growth over the prior 12 months. Only Grand Junction has fewer jobs than a year ago.

3.0%

Greeley

Grand Junction

Statewide

-1.0%

-1.0%

-1.5% Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment – modified estimates

Annual Home Price Appreciation, 1st Quarter 2017 16%

Every metro area in Colorado experienced home price appreciation above the national average, and five of Colorado’s seven metro areas were in the top 10 percent nationally. Home price appreciation remains strongest in the metro areas along the northern Front Range.

14%

Home price increases along the Front Range remain among the highest in the U.S.

12%

All Colorado metro areas are experiencing price appreciation above the national average.

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Fort Collins Loveland

Boulder

Denver* Colorado Springs

Greeley

Pueblo

Grand Colorado Junction

United States

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

General Fund Revenue Forecast After an increase of just 1.7 percent in FY 2015-16, General Fund revenue is expected to increase 3.4 percent in FY 2016-17 and 6.7 percent in FY 2017-18. Although sales taxes and individual income taxes are recovering from the oil and gas downturn and weaker economic growth during 2015 and 2016, General Fund revenue growth overall this fiscal year was weighed down by taxpayers delaying income from investment gains in anticipation of federal tax changes, as well as the continued decline in corporate income tax revenue. However, these factors will not reduce growth in FY 2017-18. Forecast

$12.0

$11.0 $9.8

$10.0 $8.5 $7.5

$5.5

$5.4

FY 2002-03

$6.0

$7.7

$6.9

$6.5

FY 2001-02

Billions

$8.0

$10.3

$9.0

$7.7 $7.1

$6.7

$6.4

$6.1

$5.7

$10.0

$4.0

$2.0

FY 2017-18

FY 2016-17

FY 2015-16

FY 2014-15

FY 2013-14

FY 2012-13

FY 2011-12

FY 2010-11

FY 2009-10

FY 2008-09

FY 2007-08

FY 2006-07

FY 2005-06

FY 2004-05

FY 2003-04

FY 2000-01

$0.0

Source: Office of the State Controller and OSPB Forecast

General Fund Budget General Fund Money, Obligations, and Reserves

$13.0

Projected reserve shortfall of $285.4 million

Projected reserve shortfall of $142.7 million

$12.0

$0.390 $11.0 $0.442

Billions

$10.0

$9.0

$11.530 $10.870

$11.140

$10.428

$8.0

$7.0

$6.0 FY 2016-17 Projected Funds Available

FY 2016-17 Obligations

General Fund Spending

FY 2017-18 Projected Funds Available

Reserves

Funds Available

With this forecast and the budget for FY 2016-17, the State’s General Fund reserve is projected to be $142.7 million below the required statutory reserve amount. The State’s General Fund reserve for FY 2017-18 is projected to be $285.4 million below the required amount. This is $52.3 million above the level that would trigger budgetbalancing actions by the Governor.

FY 2017-18 Obligations

Required Reserves

Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights: Revenue Limit $16,000 $14,000

TABOR revenue is projected to be $302.3 million under the Referendum C cap in FY 2016-17. With this forecast and SB 17-267, TABOR revenue is expected to be below the Referendum C cap by $582.8 million in FY 2017-18 and by $665.2 million in FY 2018-19.

Millions

$12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0

TABOR Revenue

TABOR Limit

Referendum C Cap

Source: Office of the State Controller and OSPB Forecast

www.colorado.gov/ospb

2017-06 Forecast Infographic.pdf

unemployed people per online job posting. in April, the lowest ... formation of new business entities has rebounded. Although ... The Federal Reserve Bank of.

253KB Sizes 2 Downloads 217 Views

Recommend Documents

Package 'forecast'
Oct 4, 2011 - Depends R (>= 2.0.0), graphics, stats, tseries, fracdiff, zoo. LazyData yes .... Largely wrappers for the acf function in the stats package. The main ...

Forecast Broker -
Catalogue - Service – for – the -Web (CSW), OPeNDAP,. NetCDF ... Forecast Broker: idea & design. 15 maart 2016 ... Archive. Forecast Broker Web Application.

KST-B01 Series - product intro - 201706.pdf
to 6 pcs KST linear actuators. 1-to-many ... Switch; Remote Control System; Central Control. System and ... KST-B01 Series - product intro - 201706.pdf. KST-B01 ...

KST-A01 Series - product intro - 201706.pdf
Page 1 of 10. KST-A01 series LINEAR ACTUATOR. Product data sheet. Website: https://www.soonkst.com/. Email: [email protected]. Taiwan office: 7F-4., No.22, Sec. 1, Meicun Rd., West Dist., Taichung City, 403, Taiwan. Tel: +886 4 23282785. Fax: +886

october forecast .pdf
There was a problem previewing this document. Retrying... Download. Connect more apps... Try one of the apps below to open or edit this item. october forecast ...

Semiparametric forecast intervals
May 25, 2010 - include quarterly inflation fan charts published by the Bank of ... in Wiley Online Library ... Present value asset pricing models for exchange rates (e.g., Engel .... has also shown that the ANW estimator has good boundary ...

201706 Josep Borras - No llet ni ou.pdf
201706 Josep Borras - No llet ni ou.pdf. 201706 Josep Borras - No llet ni ou.pdf. Open. Extract. Open with. Sign In. Main menu.

PSUSA/00009197/201706 - European Medicines Agency - Europa EU
Feb 21, 2018 - 34009 352 558 8 4. ROCHE. FR. ROFERON-A 4,5 millions d'unités internationales (UI), solution injectable en seringue préremplie. NL/H/0028/012. 34009 352 560 2 7. ROCHE. FR. Roferon-A 4,5 millions d'unités internationales (MUI), solu

2016-12 Forecast Infographic.pdf
General Fund Revenue Forecast. Revenue Adjusted for. Population Growth and. Inflation. Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, OSPB ...

2017-03 Forecast Infographic Final.pdf
The Economy. The upward ... Source: CU Leeds School of Business. With this forecast and the ... 2017-03 Forecast Infographic Final.pdf. 2017-03 Forecast ...

DB2 Forecast is Partly Cloudy -
tell us that 85% of computing capacity in distributed environments sits idle. ... cloud infrastructure, network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even ... securing capital budget, purchasing hardware, arranging for data center space and ...

Ajijic, Mexico Weather Forecast from Weather Underground.pdf ...
There was a problem previewing this document. Retrying... Download. Connect more apps... Try one of the apps below to open or edit this item. Ajijic, Mexico Weather Forecast from Weather Underground.pdf. Ajijic, Mexico Weather Forecast from Weather U

2014 December Forecast - OSPB.pdf
The Economy: Issues, Trends, and Forecast.......................................................3 ... to access this publication electronically, please visit www.colorado.gov/ospb.

Forecast - October 2015.pdf
Page 2 of 19. CLYDE-GREEN SPRINGS EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOL DISTRICT. SANDUSKY COUNTY. FINANCIAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS. Board of ...

2018-03 Forecast Infographic.pdf
Economic and Fiscal Review, March 2018. Source: Office of the State Controller and OSPB ... Source: Institute for Supply Management. Source: IHS Markit. General Fund Money, Obligations, and ... Jan-15. Jul-15. Jan-16. Jul-16. Jan-17. Jul-17. Jan-18.

Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation
Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10 .... Parameters r,µr ,σr can be motivated by applications at hand. Gneiting, T. and ...

Octboer forecast for web.pdf
There was a problem previewing this document. Retrying... Download. Connect more apps... Try one of the apps below to open or edit this item. Octboer forecast ...

Fannie Mae August 2016 Housing Forecast
Aug 10, 2016 - ... Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. ... should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business.

Learning Time-Varying Forecast Combinations
(1969), forecast combination methods have demonstrated an advantage in addressing noisy data, structural breaks ... address the “Forecast Combination Puzzle” and provides a robust, data-driven procedure to real-time ... real variable of interest

Rolling Forecast in SAP BPC.pdf
In the past, planning was very often a static process carried out once a year that intended to form the basis. for the next year's execution and budgets. Dynamic environments and fast-changing business situations. force companies to think of strategi

2017-12 Forecast Infographic_final.pdf
There was a problem previewing this document. Retrying... Download. Connect more apps... Try one of the apps below to open or edit this item. 2017-12 Forecast Infographic_final.pdf. 2017-12 Forecast Infographic_final.pdf. Open. Extract. Open with. Si

2017-03 Forecast Infographic Final.pdf
Financial Activities ... Professional & Business Services. Trade ... is excerpted from the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting's March 2017. forecast.

Fannie Mae August 2016 Housing Forecast
Aug 10, 2016 - ... Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business.

2007-03 March Forecast - OSPB.pdf
(Article + Audio) Uber But For Energy: Utility Surge Pricing Threatens Summer Cool. National Public. Radio. ○ How are utility systems challenged during times ...